nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2018‒12‒03
four papers chosen by
Humberto Barreto
DePauw University

  1. Going with your Gut: The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game By Carl Singleton; J. James Reade; Alsdair Brown
  2. Determinantes de la demanda por entradas a partidos de fútbol de primera división. El caso uruguayo para la década 2006 - 2016 By Maximiliano
  3. Platform Competition: Betfair and the U.K. Market for Sports Betting By Ramon Casadesus-Masanell; Neil Campbell
  4. Jumps Beyond the Realms of Cricket: India’s Performance in One Day Internationals and Stock Market Movements By Konstantinos Gkillas; Rangan Gupta; Chi Keung Marco Lau; Tahir Suleman

  1. By: Carl Singleton (University of Reading); J. James Reade (University of Reading); Alsdair Brown (University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: This paper studies 150 individuals who each chose to forecast the outcome of 380 fixed events, namely all football matches during the 2017/18 season of the English Premier League. The focus is on whether revisions to these forecasts before the matches began improved the likelihood of predicting correct scorelines and results. Against what theory might expect, we show how these revisions tended towards significantly worse forecasting performance, suggesting that individuals should have stuck with their initial judgements, or their ‘gut instincts’. This result is robust to both differences in the average forecasting ability of individuals and the predictability of matches. We find evidence this is because revisions to the forecast number of goals scored in football matches are generally excessive, especially when these forecasts were increased rather than decreased.
    Keywords: Sports forecasting, Fixed-event forecasts, Judgement revision
    JEL: C53 C23 D84
    Date: 2018–11
  2. By: Maximiliano (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración.)
    Abstract: The present paper proposes the identification of factors that have effects on the demand for uruguayan first division football tickets for matches played between august 2006 and December 2016. It uses a panel data for all the matches played on the period, based on García y Rodríguez (2002). Four models have been estimated: a linear model estimated by OLS, Between Effects, Fixed Effects and Random Effects, concluding through a Hausman test that the Fixed Effects regression is the most suitable for predicting the amount of tickets sold due to the consistency of it estimators. Between the socioeconomic variables it is observed that the unemployment rate and the average income have both a negative effect on the tickets sold, being the uruguayan football an inferior good for the period. The only sportive variable with significative effect is the amount of victories obtained by the local team in the last three matches. Other factors like the weather and the previous team’s positions are also significative.
    Keywords: Sports Industries, Behavioral, Microeconomics, Demand, Uruguay, Elasticity, Social Choice.
    JEL: D90 D71
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell (Harvard Business School, Strategy Unit); Neil Campbell (Majestic Wine PLC)
    Abstract: We examine two episodes of strategic interaction in the U.K. betting industry: (i) Betfair (an entrant multi-sided platform, or MSP) vs. Flutter (also an MSP), and (ii) Betfair vs. traditional bookmakers. We find that although Betfair was an underfunded second mover in the betting exchange space, it was able to attract punters at a much faster rate than the better-funded first mover, Flutter. Moreover, while Betfair and traditional bookmakers competed aggressively for market share, they also developed a highly complementary relationship that favored all parties. We discuss implications for research in the economics and management of MSPs. Specifically, we argue that the literature would benefit from work that endogenizes platform design and that considers the possible competitive and cooperative interactions between the business models of traditional incumbents and those of potential innovative MSP entrants.
    Keywords: platform design, network effects, betting, complements, competing business models, co-opetition, entry
    JEL: D21 D43 L13 L83 L86
    Date: 2018–11
  4. By: Konstantinos Gkillas (Department of Business Administration , University of Patras, University Campus, Rio, Greece); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Chi Keung Marco Lau (Huddersfield Business School, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, United Kingdom); Tahir Suleman (School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and School of Business, Wellington Institute of Technology, New Zealand)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of the Indian cricket team's performance in one day international (ODI) cricket matches on return, realized volatility and jumps of the Indian stock market, based on intraday data covering the period of 30th October, 2006 to 31st March, 2017. Standard linear Granger causality test fail to detect any evidence of wins or losses causing stock market movements. But given strong evidence of nonlinearity between our various stock market metrics and results of ODI matches, we next use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, given the misspecification of the linear model. Using this data-driven robust approach, we were able to detect evidence of predictability from wins or losses for primarily volatility and jumps, especially over the lower-quantiles of the conditional distributions, with losses having stronger predictability than wins. However, the impact on stock return is weak and restricted towards the upper end of the conditional distribution. A closer look at our results tend to suggest that, when we control for misspecification, India’s performances in ODI matches mainly affects large non-diversifiable risks (i.e., large jumps), and in the process drives market (systematic) risk (or uncertainty, which in turn has important implications for investors.
    Keywords: Cricket, India, Stock market movements, Investor psychology
    JEL: C22 G1
    Date: 2018–11

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