nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2018‒02‒26
three papers chosen by
João Carlos Correia Leitão
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Managing randomness: how to rethink performance evaluation and decision-making in European club football By Marc Brechot; Raphael Flepp
  2. Briser la norme du silence relative au dopage : une démarche personnelle influencée par le rapport à son sport By Broda, Philippe
  3. The analysis and forecasting of ATP tennis matches using a high-dimensional dynamic model By P. Gorgi; Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman; R. Lit

  1. By: Marc Brechot (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich); Raphael Flepp (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)
    Abstract: In European club football, decision makers often rely on recentmatchoutcomes when evaluating teamperformance even though short-term results are heavily in-fuenced by randomness. This can lead to systematic misjudgements and fawed decisions when the random component is suÿciently large. We show that expected goals based on quantifed scoring chances provide an evaluation measure that pre­dicts futureperformance more accurately than recent match results. Building on this, we develop a chart that compares teams’ oÿcial league rankings to their rank-ing based on expected goals, which can alert decision makers to sensitive situations wherea team’strue quality onthepitchislikelyto deviatefromtheperformance indicatedby match outcomes a.ectedbyrandom forces. Thus, incorporating this additional informationinto decision-making should allowclubstoavoid makingpoor decisions in certain situations and improve overall decision qualityin the long-run.
    Keywords: decision-making, expected goals,performance evaluation,football
    JEL: D81 L83
    Date: 2018–02
  2. By: Broda, Philippe
    Abstract: Professional cycling has always been characterized by the culture of doping. By contrast, the outside view on this behavior has changed. Originally, it was rather tolerant and then became progressively critical. Moreover, after a long period of low media coverage, the Festina affair brought durably the issue to the forefront. In this context of great tension between professional uses of cyclists and the social requirement of a clean sport, cyclists have decided to speak out. This article addresses their difference of personal positioning even though they all agree that doping is widespread in cycling.
    Keywords: Doping; Cycling; Deviance ; Culture ; Individual interest ; Collective interest
    JEL: Z13
    Date: 2017–11–29
  3. By: P. Gorgi (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands); Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands; CREATES Aarhus University, Denmark); R. Lit (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: We propose a basic high-dimensional dynamic model for tennis match results with time varying player-specific abilities for different court surface types. Our statistical model can be treated in a likelihood-based analysis and is capable of handling high-dimensional datasets while the number of parameters remains small. In particular, we analyze 17 years of tennis matches for a panel of over 500 players, which leads to more than 2000 dynamic strength levels. We find that time varying player-specific abilities for different court surfaces are of key importance for analyzing tennis matches. We further consider several other extensions including player-specific explanatory variables and the accountance of specific configurations for Grand Slam tournaments. The estimation results can be used to construct rankings of players for different court surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results.
    Keywords: Sports statistics; Score-driven time series models; Rankings; Forecasting.
    JEL: C32 C53
    Date: 2018–01–26

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