nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2017‒11‒19
three papers chosen by
João Carlos Correia Leitão
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Discouragement Effect and Intermediate Prizes in Multi-Stage Contests: Evidence from Tennis’s Davis Cup By Iqbal, Hamzah; Krumer, Alex
  2. An analytically solvable model for soccer: further implications of the classical Poisson model By Fry, John; Hastings, Tom; Serbera, Jean-Philippe
  3. Millionenstrafe für Russlands Doping-Politik? Eine Milliarden-Strafe wäre richtiger! By Helmut Grothe; Wolfgang Maennig

  1. By: Iqbal, Hamzah; Krumer, Alex
    Abstract: Discouragement effect of the lagging player in multi-stage contests is a well-documented phenomenon. In this study, we utilize data from 2,247 Davis Cup matches in teams’ tennis tournaments to test the effect of ahead-behind asymmetry on individuals’ performance with and without intermediate prizes. Using several different strategies to disentangle the effect of being ahead in the interim score from the effect of selection, we find that a higher-ranked player has higher probability of winning if his team is leading before the respective match. However, this effect disappears in matches in which a winner receives ranking points. This result is driven by an increased winning probability of the lagging favorite. Our findings suggest that, as predicted by previous theoretical studies, intermediate prizes may mitigate or even terminate the ahead-behind effects that arise in multi-stage contests.
    Keywords: Collective decision-making, multi-stage contests, discouragement, tennis
    JEL: D70 D00 L00 D20
    Date: 2017–10
  2. By: Fry, John; Hastings, Tom; Serbera, Jean-Philippe
    Abstract: In this paper we discuss an exactly soluble statistical model for soccer. By taking into account key features of soccer matches (goals are rare, goal-scoring patterns are not well understood) we arrive at a version of the classical Poisson model but with constraints on the expected total number of goals in a game. Closed form expressions are derived for expected scores and match outcomes. We are also able to reconstruct an empirically observed inverse strike-back effect pertaining to teams scoring consecutive goals. We produce analytical results for perfectly competitive soccer leagues where draws are tied to the average number of goals in a game. An empirical application to the 2016 UEFA European Championships is also discussed.
    Keywords: Forecasting; Gaming; Sports; Stochastic Processes
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2017–06
  3. By: Helmut Grothe (Department of Law, Freie Universität Berlin); Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)

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