nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2017‒06‒11
three papers chosen by
João Carlos Correia Leitão
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football By Petr A. Parshakov; Kseniya O. Baydina
  2. Key Performance Indicators for Factor Score based Ranking in ODI Cricket By Prashant Premkumar; Jimut Bahan Chakrabarty; Shovan Chowdhury
  3. The Endgame By Anurag N. Banerjee; Sarit Markovich; Giulio Seccia

  1. By: Petr A. Parshakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kseniya O. Baydina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study estimates an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH), using data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL). These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have hitherto been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioural pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between the attendance and uncertainty is found to be U-shaped or even declining. We explain the U-shaped dependence by the visiting team effect; an attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a top team coming to the city than on the uncertainty of the outcome of the match
    Keywords: Football, Attendance, the UOH, Uncertainty, Russian Football Premier League
    JEL: Z2 D81
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Prashant Premkumar (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode); Jimut Bahan Chakrabarty (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode); Shovan Chowdhury (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode)
    Abstract: Ranking of players is an important aspect of any sport. Player rankings are of concern to sports authorities, the players and the enthusiasts and with commercialization of sports it is even more important to the investors. This paper explores the factor analysis approach to rank players in One Day International (ODI) cricket. The paper ranks batsmen and bowlers who have played during the calendar year 2015. It uses a dynamic approach of generating factor scores on a match by match basis which may be used for further analysis such as valuation of players, as the ranks can be considered as a good representation of a player’s form and performance. The model uses a new set of performance indicators affecting the performance of a player (batsman/bowler), many of which are ignored by the earlier ranking systems including the most widely used ICC ranking system. The uniqueness of the paper lies in the introduction of new variables and refinement to the existing variables that helps in more accurate measurement of performance and its impact in ranking. The factor analysis approach can also be extended to the other formats of the game. It can also be used to rank all-rounders and wicket-keepers using suitable variables
    Keywords: Key Performance Indicators, Factor analysis, Factor score, ranking, cricket
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Anurag N. Banerjee (Durham Business School); Sarit Markovich (Kellog School of Management); Giulio Seccia
    Abstract: On December 1st, 2009 President Obama announced that the U.S. troops would have started leaving Afghanistan on July 2011. Rather than simply waiting "the U.S. troops out," the Taliban forces responded with a spike in attacks followed by a decline as the withdrawal date approached. These, at first, counter-intuitive phenomena, are addressed by studying a two-player, zero-sum game where the duration of the strategic interaction is either known or unknown to players. We find that under known duration, players' equilibrium strategies depend on the time remaining in the game and their relative positions at that time of play. Under unknown duration the equilibrium strategies are independent of time and continuation probability. We test the model on data available for soccer matches in the major European leagues. Most importantly, we exploit a change in rule adopted by FIFA in 1998 requiring referees to publicly disclose the length of the added time at the end of the 90 minutes of play. We study how the change in rule has affected the probability of scoring both over time and across teams' relative performance and find that the rule's change led to a 28% increase in the probability of scoring during the added time.
    Keywords: conflict resolution, information, soccer
    JEL: D74 D83 C72 L83
    Date: 2016–10

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