nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2016‒03‒17
one paper chosen by
João Carlos Correia Leitão
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few? By García, Jaume; Pérez, Levi; Rodríguez, Plácido

  1. By: García, Jaume; Pérez, Levi; Rodríguez, Plácido
    Abstract: An empirical analysis of Spanish football betting odds is carried out here to test whether football matches final result estimates by experts (bookmakers) differ (better/worse) from those by the ‘crowd’ (football pools bettors). Examination of implied probabilities for each of the possible outcomes evidences the existence of favourite long-shot bias in the betting market for Spanish football. A further study of the accuracy of probability forecasts concludes that experts seem to be better in forecasting football results than the ‘crowd’.
    Keywords: betting odds, forecasting, wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, favourite long-shot bias
    JEL: C53 L83
    Date: 2016–01

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