nep-spo 2016-03-17 papers

on Sports and Economics

Issue of 2016‒03‒17
one paper chosen by
João Carlos Correia Leitão
Universidade da Beira Interior

Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few? By García, Jaume; Pérez, Levi; Rodríguez, Plácido

Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few?

By:	García, Jaume; Pérez, Levi; Rodríguez, Plácido
Abstract:	An empirical analysis of Spanish football betting odds is carried out here to test whether football matches final result estimates by experts (bookmakers) differ (better/worse) from those by the ‘crowd’ (football pools bettors). Examination of implied probabilities for each of the possible outcomes evidences the existence of favourite long-shot bias in the betting market for Spanish football. A further study of the accuracy of probability forecasts concludes that experts seem to be better in forecasting football results than the ‘crowd’.
Keywords:	betting odds, forecasting, wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, favourite long-shot bias
JEL:	C53 L83
Date:	2016–01
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69687&r=spo

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