| Abstract: |
We analyze the performance outcomes of National Hockey League (NHL) players
over 18 seasons (1990-1991 to 2007-2008) as a function of the demographic
conditions into which they were born. We have three main findings. First,
larger birth cohorts substantially affect careers. A player born into a large
birth cohort can expect an earnings loss of roughly 18 percent over the course
of an average career as compared to a small birth cohort counterpart. The loss
in earnings is driven chiefly by supply-side factors in the form of excess
cohort competition and not quality differences since the performance of
players (as measured by point totals for non-goalies) is actually
significantly greater for players born into large birth cohorts.
Performance-adjusted wage losses for those born in large birth cohorts are
therefore greater than the raw estimates would suggest. Second, career effects
differ by relative age. Those born in early calendar months (January to April)
are more likely to make it into the NHL, but display significantly lower
performance across all birth cohorts than later calendar births. In short,
those in the top echelon of NHL achievement are drawn from fatter cohorts and
later relative age categories, consistent with the need to be of greater
relative talent in order to overcome significant early barriers (biases) in
achievement. We find league expansions increase entry level salaries including
the salaries of those born into larger birth cohorts, but they do not affect
salaries of older players. Finally we find that the 2004-05 lockout appears to
have muted the differentials in pay for large birth cohort players relative to
their smaller birth cohort counterparts. |