nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2014‒05‒04
two papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
Universidade da Beira Interior and Universidade de Lisboa

  1. Any Given Sunday: How Season Ticket Holders' Time of Stadium Entrance Is Influenced by Outcome Uncertainty By Dominik Schreyer; Sascha L. Schmidt; Benno Torgler
  2. Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies By Andrés Ramírez Hassan; Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

  1. By: Dominik Schreyer; Sascha L. Schmidt; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: This paper constitutes a unique micro-level exploration of the relation between game outcome uncertainty and the behavior of highly committed season ticket holders of a major Bundesliga soccer team. Specifically, we look at 3,113 season ticket holders attending all 17 home games in the 2012-13 season and explore whether outcome uncertainty had an impact on their stadium arrival time. We find strong evidence that increased uncertainty about the expected outcome prompts these spectators to enter the stadium earlier. Moreover, season ticket holders travelling from outside the hosting city or paying higher season ticket prices exhibit a stronger reaction to uncertainty compared with season ticket hold ers in the standing section. We also find that younger spectators are less likely to arrive late when uncertainty increases.
    Keywords: outcome uncertainty; soccer; football; consumer demand; attendance; season ticket holders
    JEL: L83 D12 R22 Z19
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Andrés Ramírez Hassan; Johnatan Cardona Jiménez
    Abstract: This paper presents several "ex ante" simulation exercises of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Specifically, we estimate the probabilities of each national team advancing to different stages, using a basic Bayesian approach based on conjugate families. In particular, we use the Categorical-Dirichlet model in the  first round and the Bernoulli-Beta model in the following stages. The novelty of our framework is given by the use of betting odds to elicit the hyperparameters of prior distributions. Additionally, we obtain the posterior distributions with the Highest Density Intervals of the probability to being champion for each team. We find that Brazil (19.95%), Germany (14.68%), Argentina (12.05%), and Spain (6.2%) have the highest probabilities of being champion. Finally, we identify some betting opportunities with our simulation exercises. In particular, Bosnia & Herzegovina is a promising, whereas Australia shows the lowest betting opportunities return.
    Keywords: Bayesian Approach, Conjugate Families, Simulation, World Cup
    JEL: C11 C15 C53
    Date: 2014–02–14

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