nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒16
two papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
Universidade da Beira Interior and Universidade de Lisboa

  1. Evaluating the performance of UEFA Champions League scorers By Papahristodoulou, Christos
  2. The Importance of Betting Early By Alessandro Innocenti; Tommaso Nannicini; Roberto Ricciuti

  1. By: Papahristodoulou, Christos
    Abstract: The ranking of football players has always engaged media and supporters worldwide. The different views on ranking are due to two reasons. First, leagues are heterogeneous with various qualities. Second, fans often rely on different performance measures and statistics. Despite the fact that team and player bias will never disappear, this paper aims to objectively evaluate the efficiency of 42 top scorers who have played in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) over a period of six years, based on official match-play “multi-input and output” statistics, using input- and output oriented DEA models.
    Keywords: efficiency, scorers, forwards, midfielders, Champions League, DEA
    JEL: C44 C7 L83 Z19
    Date: 2013–05–28
  2. By: Alessandro Innocenti; Tommaso Nannicini; Roberto Ricciuti
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of timing on decision outcome, when both the timing and the relevant decision are chosen under uncertainty. Betting markets provide the testing ground, as we exploit an original dataset containing more than one million online bets on games of the Italian Major Soccer League. We find that individuals perform systematically better when they place their bets farther away from the game day. The better performance of early bettors holds controlling for (time-invariant) unobservable ability, learning during the season, and timing of the odds. We attribute this result to the increase of noisy information on game day, which hampers the capacity of late (non-professional) bettors to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last game results. We also find that more successful bettors tend to bet in advance,focus on a smaller set of events, and prefer events associated with smaller betting odds. JEL codes: D81, D83. Keywords: decision timing, information overload, betting, sports forecasting.
    Date: 2013

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