nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2013‒05‒19
two papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of Beira Interior and Technical University of Lisbon
  1. A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League By Siem Jan Koopman; Rutger Lit
  2. Sports Facilities, Agglomeration, and Urban Redevelopment By Humphreys, Brad; Zhou, Li
  1. By: Siem Jan Koopman (VU University Amsterdam); Rutger Lit (VU University Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Attack and defense strengths of football teams vary over time due to changes in the teams of players or their managers. We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which are assumed to come from a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. This development presents a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results from football or other team sports. Our treatment is based on state space and importance sampling methods which are computationally efficient. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is verified in a betting strategy that is applied to the match outcomes from the 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons of the English Premier League. We show that our statistical modeling framework can produce a significant positive return over the bookmaker's odds.
    Keywords: Betting, Importance sampling, Kalman filter smoother, Non-Gaussian multivariate time series models, Sport statistics
    JEL: C32 C35
    Date: 2012–09–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:2012099&r=spo
  2. By: Humphreys, Brad (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Zhou, Li (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We develop a monopolistic competition model of urban service consumption and production that includes spatial structure and property values. The model shows that the introduction of a new professional sports facility and team generates agglomeration effects that change the mix of services and property values, and increases local welfare, part of which is transferred to the team as subsidies for the construction of the facility. The distributional consequences of the new facility and the implications of property tax based financing for the subsidy are analyzed.
    Keywords: agglomeration effects; sports facilities; subsidies
    JEL: H71 L83 R13 R58
    Date: 2013–04–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2013_004&r=spo
This nep-spo issue is ©2013 by Joao Carlos Correia Leitao. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.
This page is being maintained by Thomas Krichel. It was last updated on 2023‒07‒08 at 11:32.