nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2012‒10‒13
five papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of Beira Interior and Technical University of Lisbon

  1. A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League By Siem Jan Koopman; Rutger Lit
  2. Competitive Balance and Match Attendance in European Rugby Union Leagues By Vincent Hogan; Patrick Massey; Shane Massey
  3. An inspection game model of the stolen base in baseball: A theory of theft By Theodore L. Turocy
  4. Euro 2012 in Poland – facts and myths about its importance for the development of the host regions in the context of the counterfactual analysis By Joanna Kude³ko; Zbigniew Mogi³a; Aleksandra Poproch
  5. Sport and Economic Development: The Case of Bangladesh By Mandle, Jay

  1. By: Siem Jan Koopman (VU University Amsterdam); Rutger Lit (VU University Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Attack and defense strengths of football teams vary over time due to changes in the teams of players or their managers. We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which are assumed to come from a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. This development presents a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results from football or other team sports. Our treatment is based on state space and importance sampling methods which are computationally efficient. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is verified in a betting strategy that is applied to the match outcomes from the 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons of the English Premier League. We show that our statistical modeling framework can produce a significant positive return over the bookmaker's odds.
    Keywords: Betting; Importance sampling; Kalman filter smoother; Non-Gaussian multivariate time series models; Sport statistics
    JEL: C32 C35
    Date: 2012–09–27
  2. By: Vincent Hogan (University College Dublin); Patrick Massey (Compecon Ltd); Shane Massey (Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of the relatively belated move to professionalism in Rugby Union. We use data on match attendance for 3,667 fixtures in European club Rugby over 15 seasons to estimate the effect of competitive balance on attendance. We find that (short- and medium-term) competitive balance has a large and statistically significant effect. However, this effect is smaller in magnitude than the effect brought about by the other aspects of the fixture with the strength of the home team being the single most important influence on attendances.
    Keywords: Professional team sports, competitive balance, league structures, revenue sharing, salary caps, consumer demand.
    JEL: D12 D21 L22 L23 L83
    Date: 2012–10–05
  3. By: Theodore L. Turocy (School of Economics and CBESS, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: This paper models the stolen base play in baseball as a simple inspection game. The model offers equilibrium predictions relating the frequency with which a stolen base play is attempted, and the frequency with which it is successful. Using an extensive play-by-play dataset from 37 Major League Baseball seasons, qualitative and quantitative support is found for the predictions of the model. An exogenous change in the average number of runs scored per game during the period covered by the dataset provides a natural experiment; the equilbrium model predicts the change in the relationship between attempt and success frequencies observed in the data.
    Keywords: mixed strategy equilibrium, inspection game, baseball
    Date: 2012–04–15
  4. By: Joanna Kude³ko; Zbigniew Mogi³a; Aleksandra Poproch
    Abstract: In April 2007 UEFA's Executive Committee announced that the 2012 European Football Championship, commonly referred to as Euro 2012, will be hosted by Poland and Ukraine between 8 June and 1 July 2012. The UEFA’s decision gave rise to expectations that the organization of such a prestigious international sports event would be a great opportunity to improve the tourist and investment attractiveness of the host regions. It was primarily expected that Euro 2012 tournament will speed up building and modernization of communication, sports and touristic infrastructures which –in turn- will spur economic development of the Polish host regions. The main aim of this paper is to present the quantitative impact of public investments and tourist expenditures associated with Euro 2012 on the development of the four Polish host regions- dolno¶l±skie, mazowieckie, pomorskie and wielkopolskie. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the two main baseline scenarios: 1) Non-Euro 2012 scenario assuming that all the investment associated with the tournament would have been undertaken in any case with a 4 year delay due to the fact that most of them is financed form the EU funds which must be implemented until 2015; 2) Euro 2012 scenario assuming that the tournament has accelerated public investments up to 4 years in comparison to the non-Championship scenario. Moreover, within the Euro 2012-scenario two sub-scenarios regarding the potential number of tourists are constructed. The analysis is conducted using the regional HERMIN models and concentrates on such macroeconomic indicators as GDP per capita, employment and investment. The research period is 2008 (beginning of investment)-2020 in order to derive both short-term (demand) and long-term (supply) effects. The results are compared and confronted with the analogues effects for other European regions in order to formulate general conclusions on the role of such events in the regional development. Keywords: Euro 2012 in Poland, development of the regions, counter-factual macroeconomic simulations. JEL codes: R11
    Date: 2012–10
  5. By: Mandle, Jay (Department of Economics, Colgate University)
    Keywords: economic development; sport; Bangladesh
    Date: 2012–01

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