nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2012‒09‒30
one paper chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of Beira Interior and Technical University of Lisbon

  1. An inspection game model of the stolen base in baseball: A theory of theft By Theodore L. Turocy

  1. By: Theodore L. Turocy (School of Economics and CBESS, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: This paper models the stolen base play in baseball as a simple inspection game. The model offers equilibrium predictions relating the frequency with which a stolen base play is attempted, and the frequency with which it is successful. Using an extensive play-by-play dataset from 37 Major League Baseball seasons, qualitative and quantitative support is found for the predictions of the model. An exogenous change in the average number of runs scored per game during the period covered by the dataset provides a natural experiment; the equilbrium model predicts the change in the relationship between attempt and success frequencies observed in the data.
    Keywords: mixed strategy equilibrium, inspection game, baseball
    Date: 2012–04–15

This nep-spo issue is ©2012 by Joao Carlos Correia Leitao. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.