nep-spo 2012-09-09 papers

on Sports and Economics

Issue of 2012‒09‒09
one paper chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of Beira Interior and Technical University of Lisbon

Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League By Lahvicka, Jiri

Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

By:	Lahvicka, Jiri
Abstract:	This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.
Keywords:	sports attendance; match importance; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo
JEL:	C53 D12 L83
Date:	2012–09–01
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40998&r=spo

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