nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2012‒09‒09
one paper chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of Beira Interior and Technical University of Lisbon

  1. Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League By Lahvicka, Jiri

  1. By: Lahvicka, Jiri
    Abstract: This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.
    Keywords: sports attendance; match importance; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo
    JEL: C53 D12 L83
    Date: 2012–09–01

This nep-spo issue is ©2012 by Joao Carlos Correia Leitao. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.