| By: |
George Diemer (Department of Economics, Temple University);
Mike Leeds (Department of Economics, Temple University) |
| Abstract: |
The possibility that college basketball teams shave points – win games by less
than the point spread established in gambling markets – has generated heated
controversy among researchers. Some claim to find clear evidence of point
shaving, while others assert that the evidence is a statistical artifact. We
use data from college basketball NCAA games from 1995-1996 through 2008-2009
to support the existence of point shaving. We identify two incentives to shave
points and find as these incentives increase so too does the statistical
evidence of point shaving. First we show that the distribution of the outcomes
of games in which there is a heavy favorite differs from the distribution of
outcomes of games that do not have a heavy favorite. Second we show that point
shaving is not a significant factor in post-season games when the incentive to
shave decreases. |
| Keywords: |
College basketball, Sports gambling, Corruption, Economics, Probabilities. |
| JEL: |
G14 |
| Date: |
2010–08 |
| URL: |
https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tem:wpaper:1009 |