nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2008‒11‒25
four papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
Technical University of Lisbon

  1. Equilibrium Price Dynamics in Perishable Goods Markets: The Case of Secondary Markets for Major League Baseball Tickets By Andrew Sweeting
  2. The competitive balance in the Italian football league: A taxonomic approach By Di Domizio Marco
  3. Accuracy, Certainty and Surprise - A Prediction Market on the Outcome of the 2002 FIFA World Cup By Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin; Volkland, Henning Oskar
  4. Win the best, win the largest or win the richest. Some empirical evidence from Italian championships By Di Domizio Marco

  1. By: Andrew Sweeting
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of prices in two online secondary markets for Major League Baseball tickets. Controlling for ticket quality, prices tend to decline significantly as a game approaches. The paper describes and tests alternative theoretical explanations for why this happens in equilibrium, considering the problems of both buyers and sellers. It shows that sellers cut prices (either fixed prices or reserve prices in auctions) because of declining opportunity costs of holding onto tickets as their future selling opportunities disappear. Even though prices can be expected to fall, the majority of observed early purchases can be rationalized by plausible ticket valuations and return to market costs given product differentiation and uncertainties about ticket availability.
    JEL: L11 L81
    Date: 2008–11
  2. By: Di Domizio Marco
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the dynamics of seasonal competitive balance in Italian Serie A in the last 45 years. Starting from the critics against the stylized conditions of worst competitive balance and using a taxonomic approach it provides a prominent role to the round played and to the position in standing in order to compose a better proxy for the uncertainty. It shows that the time trend rise in competitive unbalance can be dated from middle 90s, but can not be ascribed exclusively to the change in the points system.
    Date: 2008–11
  3. By: Schmidt, Carsten (Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim); Strobel, Martin (Maastricht University); Volkland, Henning Oskar (Goldman Sachs & Co., Frankfurt)
    Abstract: In this chapter, we present our empirical investigation of the forecasting accuracy of a prediction market experiment drawn on the outcome of the World Cup 2002. We analyse the predictive accuracy of 64 markets and compare to bookmakers’ quotes and chance as benchmarks. We revisit the evaluation of Schmidt and Werwatz (Chapter 16) and compare our results directly to their findings. In addition, we propose a new method for testing predictive accuracy by means of a non-parametric test for the similarity of probability distributions and we evaluate the incorporation of information in market prices by comparing pre-match and half-time price data. We find a reversed favourite-longshot bias when analysing market prices before the start of the match and this bias does not disappear with the inflow of new information until half-time. Unlike the market based predictions bookmakers appear to be perfectly calibrated. Since there were substantial deviations in outcome between the 2000 European Championship and our data, we offer possible explanations for the much worse performance of the 2002 World Cup prediction market. Consistent with Schmidt and Werwatz (Chapter 16) prediction markets do assign relatively higher probabilities to the favourite when compared to the odds-setters. Together with a long streak of surprising outcomes this fact appears most likely to be responsible for the predictive inaccuracy.
    Date: 2008–07–24
  4. By: Di Domizio Marco
    Abstract: This paper uses an econometric model to evaluate the impact of variables influencing the long period competitive balance in Italian football league. Using records of the last 75 tournaments and adopting as a measure of market size both a demand and a supply side perspective, the paper aims at establishing if the theoretical prescriptions on the long run competitive balance holds for the Italian championships. This approach allows us to evaluate if teams outperform their market size and to extract a ranking of the best and worst teams in the last 75 years.
    Date: 2008–11

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