nep-spo New Economics Papers
on Sports and Economics
Issue of 2007‒03‒17
three papers chosen by
Joao Carlos Correia Leitao
University of the Beira Interior

  1. Free Agent Auctions and Revenue Sharing: A Simple Approach By Rockerbie, Duane
  2. The Determinants of Soccer Player Substitutions: a Survival Analysis of the Spanish Soccer League By Julio del Corral; Carlos Pestana Barros
  3. Previsão da eficácia ofensiva do futebol profissional: Um caso Português By Caiado, Jorge; Vieira, Aníbal; Bonito, Ana; Reis, Carlos; Fernandes, Francisco

  1. By: Rockerbie, Duane
    Abstract: This paper uses a simple approach to address the issue of how revenue sharing in professional sports leagues can affect the allocation of free agent players to teams. To affect the allocation of free agents, the imposition of revenue sharing must alter the ranking of bidding teams in terms of maximum salary offers. Two types of revenue sharing systems are considered: traditional gate revenue sharing and pooled revenue sharing. The paper suggests that team rankings for ability to pay are not affected by pooled revenue sharing, however the distribution of player salaries will be compressed. Traditional gate revenue sharing can alter the ability to pay rankings for teams, depending upon playing schedules and the closeness of revenues between closely ranked teams.
    Keywords: revenue sharing; professional sports; free agents; labor surplus; auction
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2007–03
  2. By: Julio del Corral; Carlos Pestana Barros
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the pattern of player substitutions during a soccer match, using data from the First Division (Primera División) of the Spanish National Soccer League in the 2004-2005 season. To do so, an inverse Gaussian hazard model is adopted to analyze the first substitutions of each team that take place at half-time and in the second half of matches. The results show that the most important factor is the score as it stands prior to the time of the player substitution. Furthermore, defensive substitutions are made later in the match than offensive substitutions. We also find some evidence that the home team makes more substitutions than the visiting team in the halftime interval.
    Keywords: hazard model; soccer substitutions; strategy.
  3. By: Caiado, Jorge; Vieira, Aníbal; Bonito, Ana; Reis, Carlos; Fernandes, Francisco
    Abstract: The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity, including the sportive phenomenon of the soccer. The experience has shown that the extrapolative or not casual models (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer team Sport Lisbon and Benfica, in Portuguese soccer league, by using deterministic methods (linear trend, moving average, exponential smoothing, holt, naïve) and stochastic models (ARMA models, random walk). The model selection criteria used in our study were the mean squared error, the mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage error based in a one-step forecast of the last three observations.
    Keywords: Exponential smoothing; Soccer; Moving average; ARMA model; Forecast.; Exponential smoothing, soccer, moving average, ARMA model, forecast.
    JEL: C53 L83
    Date: 2006

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