| Abstract: |
This paper investigates the long-term causal effects of receiving an ERC grant
on researcher productivity, excellence and the ability to obtain additional
research funding up to nine years after grant assignment. We use data on the
universe of ERC applicants between 2007 and 2013 and information on their
complete publication histories from the Scopus database. For identification,
we first exploit the assignment rule based on rankings, comparing the outcomes
of the winning and non-winning applicants in a regression discontinuity design
(RDD). We fail to find any statistically significant effect on research
productivity and quality, which suggests that receiving an ERC grant does not
make a difference in terms of scientific impact for researchers with a ranking
position close to the threshold. Since RDDs help identify a local effect, we
also conduct a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis using the time series
of bibliometric indicators available, which allows us to estimate the effect
on a wider population of winning and non-winning applicants. By contrast with
the RDD results, DID estimates show that obtaining an ERC grant leads to
positive long-term effects on scientific productivity, impact and the capacity
to attract other EU funds in the fields of Chemistry, Universe and Earth
Sciences, Institutions and Behaviours, Human Mind Studies and Medicine.
Further analysis of heterogeneous effects leads us conclude that the positive
results obtained with DID seem to be driven by the top-ranked applicants in
these fields. |