| By: |
Boehm, Michael J.;
Watzinger, Martin |
| Abstract: |
Recent research in labor economics has highlighted the substantial and
long-lasting adverse effect of recessions on employment prospects and
earnings. In this paper, we study whether individuals react to these shocks by
changing career paths and thereby affect the selection of talent into sectors.
More concretely, we examine how the publication success and career choice of
graduates from the leading US economics PhD programs varies with the state of
the business cycle at application and at graduation. Our results strongly
support the predictions of a Roy-style model of self-selection into sectors:
We find that adverse macroeconomic conditions at application lead to a
substantially more productive selection of individuals into academia and at
graduation they lead to more PhDs deciding to stay in academia. |
| Keywords: |
Sectoral Selection, Skill Composition, Business Cycle, Careers |
| JEL: |
I29 J44 J24 |
| Date: |
2010–06 |
| URL: |
https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27463 |