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on South East Asia |
| By: | Fauziah Zen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Denisa Athallia (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Nadira Melia (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN governments spent over US$30 billion on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2023 – around three times public spending on renewable energy (RE). This persistent fiscal bias, despite rising climate risks and net-zero commitments, entrenches dependence on fossil fuels and undermines the competitiveness of clean energy. This Policy Brief examines the fiscal barriers that sustain this dependency, including fossil-fuel subsidies, policy instability, and persistent financing gaps, and proposes policy pathways to accelerate a just energy transition. Focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the analysis shows that existing tax incentives, carbon pricing initiatives, and blended finance mechanisms have not yet been sufficient to offset fossil-fuel price advantages or mobilise investment at the scale required. The brief argues that phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies, scaling up green and blended finance, and proactively managing stranded assets are critical to breaking fossil-fuel lock-in and aligning fiscal policy with ASEAN’s climate and development objectives. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-17 |
| By: | Chen Chen Yong (Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Muhammad Hafiz Abdul Majid Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Muhammad Aizat Zainal Alam Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Critical infrastructure sectors form the backbone of national security and economic resilience, yet their dependence on petroleum inputs creates vulnerabilities that are inadequately measured. This study applies hypothetical extraction methodology to examine how petroleum supply disruptions would impact critical infrastructure across four developed economies (the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and four developing economies (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand). Methodology - Using input-output analysis, we analyze six essential infrastructure sectors, including inland transport, air transport, water transport, telecommunications, utilities, and public administration. Findings - Our findings reveal striking differences that challenge conventional assumptions about energy security. Developing economies exhibit 2.56 times higher overall infrastructure vulnerability than developed economies. Transportation sectors consistently emerge as the most vulnerable across all countries, with inland transport ranking first in all countries. However, individual patterns reveal significant paradoxes: the United States exhibits unexpectedly high vulnerability despite domestic oil production, whereas the United Kingdom demonstrates exceptional resilience despite its dependence on imports. Novelty - The research identifies two distinct ""infrastructure development paradigms"": efficiency-first models and resilience-integrated approaches. Malaysia exhibits extreme vulnerability, with inland transport scoring 37.88 on the Infrastructure Vulnerability Index, whereas the UK maintains comprehensive resilience at an average IVI of 1.13. The study reveals that developing economies exhibit ""amplification effects, "" in which disruptions cascade with minimal dampening, whereas most developed economies demonstrate ""dampening effects"" that contain vulnerabilities. These findings provide essential insights for national security planning and energy transition policies, demonstrating that infrastructure resilience results from specific design choices rather than automatic outcomes of economic development. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Critical Infrastructure; Petroleum Dependencies; Input-Output Analysis; Economic Vulnerability; Energy Security; Hypothetical Extraction; Infrastructure Resilience |
| JEL: | Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber272 |
| By: | Trinh Phuc Hung; Aleksandar Vasilevv |
| Abstract: | This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 – 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation, while the independent variables were the expected future inflation, three proxies of real marginal cost (the output gap, unit labour cost and labour income share), and the long-short interest rate spread. Findings from the research confirmed the existence of the traditional NKPC in Vietnam, with inflation positively influenced by the real marginal cost. Among the proxies, the conventional output gap is not totally outdated, having a positive, weak but statistically significant impact on wage inflation. Still, proxies related to the labour market were much stronger, positive determinants of both price and wage inflations. The inclusion of the interest rate spread made the effects of the proxies (on inflation) slightly stronger. A positive relationship was also found between current and expected future inflation, and inflation persistence in Vietnam was witnessed. Compared to some other emerging, open economies in the world, the Phillips curve in Vietnam in the period was flatter. The research wrapped up with some implications for academic researchers and Vietnam’s central bank, specifically regarding the cautious application of the structural NKPC model to explain short-run inflation dynamics in monetary decisions in Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), price inflation, wage inflation, output gap, unit labour cost, labour income share, Generalised Moments Method (GMM). |
| JEL: | E31 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2026_02 |
| By: | Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita; Diokno-Sicat, Charlotte Justine; Corpus, John Paul P.; Palomar, Robert Hector G.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Miral, Ramona Maria L. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the current level of debt in the country, given the national government’s fiscal policy and plans, remains on a sustainable path. By the end of 2021, a year after the peak of the public health and economic crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio had already climbed to 60.4 percent, over 20 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels and slightly above the government’s indicative cap. In 2022, the debt was recorded at 60.9 percent of GDP. Several empirical exercises were performed in this paper to investigate the country’s fiscal solvency, including (1) providing a historical decomposition of public debt, (2) tracking the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next half-decade through standard debt sustainability analysis, (3) computing the fiscal gap to shed light on the fiscal adjustments needed to bring the country to more comfortable debt levels, and (4) estimating fiscal reaction functions for the Philippines and developing ASEAN-5 economies to see how fiscal policy will likely respond to debt and other relevant macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that the country’s debt position today is less worrisome than during previous debt crises, and that the debt-to-GDP ratio will remain manageable despite peaking above 65 percent over the next couple of years. Given the need to spend to prevent possible scarring from the pandemic and provide the economy with time and room to recover from the pandemic crisis, it may not be feasible to return immediately to pre-COVID-19 debt ratios, based on fiscal gap computations. This underscores the need for a sound medium- to long-term fiscal consolidation plan to anchor sentiments. Meanwhile, fiscal reaction functions for the Philippines and similar economies in the region indicate responsible fiscal policy that guarantees fiscal solvency. This presupposes, however, the absence of major fiscal policy reversals, especially of hard-won fiscal reforms since the mid-1980s. |
| Keywords: | government debt, debt sustainability, fiscal gap, fiscal reaction function |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2026-01 |
| By: | Giulia Ajmone Marsan (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Adelia Rahmawati (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Fintech is emerging as a key driver of financial inclusion and innovation across emerging and developing economies. Its rapid growth is underpinned by large unbanked and underbanked populations, rising internet penetration, a shift towards mobile-first consumer behaviour, younger demographic profiles, and the digital acceleration catalysed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines how different fintech ecosystem models evolve under varying institutional, regulatory, and technological conditions. Drawing on illustrative cases from Latin America, ASEAN, Africa, and South Asia, it highlights how enabling regulatory frameworks, digital public infrastructure, startup ecosystems, and mobile-first solutions have shaped fintech development. These models are not mutually exclusive and often coexist within the same ecosystem, generating shared challenges such as fragmented markets, uneven regulatory capacity, persistent digital divides, and weaknesses in digital infrastructure. Realising fintech’s transformative potential therefore requires deliberate policy choices that promote equitable digital participation, foster competition, and support responsible innovation. For ASEAN, regional initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Payment Connectivity and the Digital Economy Framework Agreement present timely opportunities to deepen integration, expand cross-border fintech services, and support sustained growth. Aligning fintech development with financial inclusion objectives will be critical to ensuring that digital finance contributes to sustainable and equitable development across the region. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Innovation; Emerging Market; ASEAN |
| JEL: | L26 O14 O3 P52 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-11 |
| By: | Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) |
| Abstract: | Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in ASEAN’s energy security and its transition towards lower-carbon energy systems. As electricity demand continues to rise alongside economic growth and urbanisation, LNG offers a flexible and relatively lower-emissions alternative to coal, while providing the firm capacity required to support the integration of renewable energy. However, global LNG markets have entered a period of heightened volatility, characterised by rapid and wide-ranging price fluctuations driven by shifting supply–demand balances, geopolitical developments, and evolving energy policies in major consuming regions. This Policy Brief examines recent developments in global and regional LNG markets, with particular attention to Southeast Asia. It analyses the structural drivers of price volatility, including Europe’s increased reliance on LNG, China’s expanding and fluctuating gas demand, and the growing role of the United States as a major LNG supplier. The brief also highlights the emergence of new LNG-importing countries in ASEAN and the implications of market uncertainty for their energy security and investment planning. In addition, it addresses the increasing importance of methane emissions management and greenhouse gas mitigation in shaping the long-term role of LNG. Drawing on expert discussions held between 2024 and 2025, the brief proposes policy directions to stabilise LNG markets in ASEAN while aligning energy security objectives with climate commitments. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-20 |
| By: | Azizie Bin Hamid (MITRANS, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 404050, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Nuryantizpura Ahmad Rais Author-2-Workplace-Name: College of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Wan Mazlina Wan Mohamed Author-3-Workplace-Name: MITRANS, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 404050, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study examines the impact of the Road Traffic Safety Management System (RTSMS) ISO 39001:2013 on changing the cognitive and behavioural patterns of road users within an institutional setting. Methodology - Using a case study of a national occupational safety agency in Malaysia, the research investigates whether the implementation of RTSMS significantly influences cognitive awareness and road-user behaviour. Data were collected from 57 respondents across 17 regional offices using an adapted Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) and Driver Skill Inventory (DSI). Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was applied to test three hypotheses. Findings - The analysis confirmed all hypotheses at a high level of significance (p |
| Keywords: | RTSMS, ISO 39001, road safety, cognitive behaviour, institutional safety, structural equation modelling, Malaysia |
| JEL: | R40 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber269 |
| By: | Krah, Kwabena; Montalva Talledo, Veronica Sonia; Tiwari, Sailesh |
| Abstract: | The East Asia and Pacific region has made remarkable progress on poverty reduction, transforming the economic lives of hundreds of millions of people. With growth prospects dimmer in a world that is increasingly polarized, the question of what it will take to convert the success in poverty reduction into a similar success in growing and nurturing the emergent middle class has become critical for the region. Providing an updated definition of middle class that is grounded in the concept of economic security, this paper presents new evidence on the size, evolution, and characteristics of the region’s middle class. The results show that around a third of the region’s population belongs to the middle class, and more than half still live in relative poverty and vulnerability. From a global perspective, the region stands out for the fastest rate of expansion of the middle class, but China accounts for a large share of this progress. Excluding China, middle-class growth in the rest of the region has stalled in recent years. A larger share of the region’s poor today live in urban areas than a decade earlier (47 percent versus 34 percent), suggesting marked progress on rural convergence. Still, urban areas continue to provide better prospects for upward mobility into the middle class (44 percent) than rural areas (22 percent). Jobs have been pivotal in driving middle-class growth in the region and future mobility prospects will continue to depend on countries being able to generate more and better-quality jobs. Improving quality of services and closing the remaining gaps across economic classes will be crucial for building human capital and ensuring upward mobility for all. This will also necessitate and reinforce the emerging middle class’s commitment to the social contract, including greater tax contributions. |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11301 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University); Anh Tuyet Nguyen (Independent Researcher); Yasuharu Shimamura (Aoyama Gakuin University); Midori Matsushima (University of Tsukuba) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether asymmetric information in the public health insurance market remains empirically relevant as coverage approaches universal levels. Focusing on Vietnam’s public health insurance system – characterized by a uniform benefit package and a gradual transition toward universal health coverage – we analyze five waves of nationally representative survey data spanning 2004 to 2020. Following the methodology of Chiappori and Salanié (2000), we test for a conditional correlation between insurance enrollment and realized health risks. Our results consistently demonstrate the persistence of asymmetric information throughout the study period, even as aggregate coverage among working-age adults exceeded 80% by 2020. Subgroup analyses reveal that while selection effects weaken in groups subject to near-automatic enrollment, such as government employees and students, they remain deeply entrenched among private-sector workers, the self-employed, and dependents who retain greater discretion in participation. These findings underscore that high aggregate coverage does not mechanically eliminate informational frictions. Consequently, the study highlights the critical importance of enrollment design and effective enforcement mechanisms in sustaining robust risk pooling and financial viability during the final stages of the transition to Universal Health Coverage. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Information; Public Health Insurance; Universal Health Insurance Coverage; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I13 I15 I18 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-001 |
| By: | Jason Lu; Dimitre Milkov |
| Abstract: | A striking feature of US-China trade tensions in mid-2025 is China’s acceleration of exports to the US ahead of new tariff increases, a phenomenon we term export frontloading. To understand how this was achieved, we develop a factor model analytical framework to characterize China’s product-level exports, across time and destinations, according to a set of latent export baskets. Applying this to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, we document the channels behind the 2024-25 episode and compare them with the 2018 US-China trade tensions. Our analysis points to broad-based adjustments across multiple dimensions in a manner not observed in 2018: (i) shipments to the US accelerated in the second half of 2024, possibly supported by the retention of intermediate inputs that facilitated a ramp-up in domestic production; (ii) from January 2025, domestic production slowed and shipments of intermediate inputs to Vietnam and other ASEAN economies accelerated, consistent with the relocation of export-oriented manufacturing following US tariffs; (iii) exporters prioritized shipments to the US through March 2025, reallocating flows away from third destinations with similar export profiles; and (iv) as shipments to the US fell sharply in April-May amid the escalation of reciprocal tariffs, the decline was offset by increased shipments to third destinations consistent with fulfilling previously deferred orders. |
| Keywords: | Export Frontloading; Trade Tariffs; Production Relocation |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/013 |
| By: | G.L.D. Wickramasinghe (University of Moratuwa); Vathsala Wickramasinghe (University of Moratuwa) |
| Abstract: | The modernization of technical and vocational education and training (TVET) has not occurred with a system-wide approach covering the entire spectrum of TVET institutes worldwide. The literature that incorporates the Sustainable Development Goal for Education (SDG4) and the fourth industrial revolution in TVET is very rare to be found from international and comparative standpoints since these areas are still emerging. Further, case-based or single country-based experiences do not provide sufficient information to make informed decisions. Therefore, more empirical studies are needed on the adoption of SDG4 in TVET institutes to gain a broad-based understanding of the prevailing context. Given these gaps in the scholarship, the present study investigated the status of the adoption of SDG4 in TVET institutes. Accordingly, the study collected data covering the areas of 1) the teaching and learning context, 2) steps taken to impart skills for employment, and 3) steps taken to enhance the capacities of staff in response to the changing world of work from fifteen Asian and Pacific countries. Four hundred and twenty-eight TVET staff responded to the survey. The findings showed significant differences by the regional classification of the country and by the type of TVET institute. The findings of the study are novel and provide ample evidence for the status of TVET in incorporating SDG4 in the fourth industrial revolution era. The findings also showed that the policymaking bodies must take active measures to increase responsiveness in fulfilling SDG4 and addressing challenges brought about by the fourth industrial revolution technologies. |
| Keywords: | Southeast Asia, Economic development, Industrial development, Middle level skill development, South Asia, Education policy, Digital skills, Workforce readiness, Industry 4.0, Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technical and Vocational Education and Training, Vocational Education and Training, Quality education, Education 2030, Sustainable Development Goals |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05482853 |
| By: | DOI, KIYOMI (Nishogakusha University) |
| Abstract: | This study offers an anthropological analysis of the early societal journey in Japan of the world’s first commercially released genome-edited tomato, the SRHGABA, conceptualizing it as a societal and planetary rite of “passage.” Treating the tomato as a hybrid actor embedded in ecologies and social infrastructures, the study first explores how its cultivation and circulation has generated apprehension and elusiveness exceeding standard risk metrics. This is partly due to the crop’s undetectability—it contains no foreign genes—rendering it less radical than conventional GMOs. Next, the study advances a theory of dynamis and dynamist rites, viewing the current transitional stage of adoption as a contradictory and suspended spatiotemporal journey. It draws on liminality and liminoid formations to highlight this limbo-like phase, which nonetheless harbors an undercurrent of potent possibility. The research foregrounds pre-reflective, magico-religious attunements (e.g. awe-like receptivity), arguing that they lie deeper than ethical stances or anticipatory care. Amid current preparations to export genome editing to Asian countries, this study’s use of an ethnographic case from the region illuminates the potential and concerns of genome editing adoption that are likely to emerge across Asia and the world in the near future. Keywords: genome-edited, rites of passage, dynamis, multispecies, liminalit |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s6qth_v1 |
| By: | Dr Chinnasamy Agamudai Malarvizhi (Multimedia University, Cyberjaya, 63100, Selangor, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Theshmah Janarthanan Nambiar Author-2-Workplace-Name: Multimedia University, Cyberjaya, 63100, Selangor, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - The human resources (HR) teams in information technology (IT) organizations have begun adopting AI solutions to enhance workforce management, improve communication, and increase productivity, given the emergence of remote and hybrid working models. Methodology/Technique - These calls for further research into the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) tools on employee performance in IT firms in Malaysia, particularly in the context of remote and hybrid work. Hence, this study aims to examine how AI-based platforms, such as automated performance appraisals, employee engagement tools, and virtual collaboration services, affect work productivity, job satisfaction, and overall morale. Findings - The independent variables of work-life balance, communication satisfaction, and organizational support are examined via convenience sampling. The three exogenous variables are linked to a single endogenous variable, employee performance. Moreover, the research investigates the limitations and potential of these resources in remote or hybrid settings by assessing their impact on organizational culture, employee relations, and well-being. Novelty - This empirical work aims to aggregate and analysis empirical information on the risks involved in AI-driven hybrid working environments. The elicited data could be used to develop an AI-driven tool to assist workers and employers in recognizing, assessing, and mitigating risks. Existing legislation should be analyzed to determine how HR technology can reinforce guidelines to safeguard remote workers. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Remote and hybrid working, AI tools, Work-life balance, Organizational support, Communication Satisfaction, Employee performance |
| JEL: | M1 M15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr357 |
| By: | Chen Liu |
| Abstract: | Single-use plastics (SUPs) remain a major contributor to environmental degradation in ASEAN+3 despite a decade of national bans, regional declarations, and growing circular economy commitments. Yet most policy frameworks continue to rely on product-focused interventions – bans, charges, and recycling mandates – without adequately considering the behavioural drivers that shape everyday consumption, particularly in the post-COVID context. This Policy Brief draws on a survey of 1, 492 respondents across five Asian cities (Hanoi, Phnom Penh, Depok, Harbin, and Shanghai) conducted between 2022 and 2023. The findings reveal substantial disparities in weekly SUP consumption – ranging from 55 to 132 items per person – with Shanghai recording 2.4 times the levels observed in Hanoi and Depok. Across the five surveyed cities, about 56% of SUP items are disposed of without separation, while single-use face mask usage remains about 2.6 times as high as pre-pandemic levels. Demographic factors strongly influence consumptio The evidence underscores that one-size-fits-all approaches are unlikely to achieve significant reductions. Instead, cities require tailored policy roadmaps that integrate behavioural insights, infrastructure reforms, demographic-targeted interventions, and circular economy mechanisms, supported by adaptive ASEAN+3 cooperation aligned with the emerging global plastics treaty. A post-COVID plastics policy framework must balance environmental sustainability with public health, local consumption cultures, and evolving economic activities such as food delivery and e-commerce. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-18 |