nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2026–03–02
eight papers chosen by
Subash Sasidharan, Indian Institute of Technology


  1. The Delicate Balance of Special Autonomy Agreements: Lessons from Indonesia and the Philippines By Sarah Shair-Rosenfield
  2. Estimating Indonesia's State-Owned Enterprises' Value-Added to the Indonesian Economy By Mohamad Ikhsan; Lovina Aisha Malika Putri; I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda; Adhi Nugroho Saputro
  3. Weathering the Storm: Examining the Resilience of Small and Micro Firms in Indonesia During the COVID-19 Pandemic By Dhaniel Ilyas
  4. The Long-Term Impacts of Bombing Vietnam on Occupations Over Cohorts By Van Le Thy Ha
  5. Government as Shareholder or Guardian? A Critical Look at SOE Policy in Indonesia By Lovina Aisha Malika Putri; Mohamad Ikhsan; Eka Pujiastuti
  6. Energy for Growth: Satellite Synthetic Control Evidence from Indonesia By Klaus Andresen; Ursula Müller; Hans-Jörg Schmerer
  7. Aligning community and public priorities in informal settlement upgrading: Evidence from discrete choice experiments in Indonesia By Rohan Sweeney; Farzana Hossain; Jumriani Ansar; Indra Dwinata; Sitti Andriani Anwar; Arlyani Risal; Gang Chen; Michaela F. Prescott; S Fiona Barker; Karin Leder; Ansariadi Ansariadi; David W. Johnston
  8. Childlessness and health in middle age and older adulthood: evidence from Singapore By Ho, Christine; Kim, Dahye; Ray, Rohan; Teerawichitchainan, Bussarawan

  1. By: Sarah Shair-Rosenfield (University of York, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: Does asymmetric decentralization fulfill the twin promise of regional self-governance within a peaceful nation-state? Despite the obvious appeal of pacifying restive regions with distinct authority while keeping them as parts of the larger country, the theoretical promise of asymmetric decentralization often goes unfulfilled in reality. This is especially true where regional grievances were sufficient to lead to deadly civil conflict, and where those grievances include especially high levels of (perceived) economic exploitation and extreme poverty in the region compared to the rest of the nation. Comparison between the special status regions of Aceh and Papua (in Indonesia) and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao and unsuccessful Cordillera Administrative Region (in the Philippines) highlights the importance of limiting veto players in agreeing on the design of special autonomy to resolving regional claim-making and mitigating regional economic deprivation. The comparative analysis suggests why special autonomy arrangements often fail to achieve the critical balance of solving existing regional grievances and preventing resumption of conflict and unrest.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2608
  2. By: Mohamad Ikhsan; Lovina Aisha Malika Putri; I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda; Adhi Nugroho Saputro (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: Contrary to popular perception, the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Indonesia’s economy is relatively limited. Between 2010 and 2022, SOEs contributed only 6–8% to nominal GDP annually, with considerable variation across sectors. By 2022, the ten largest SOEs accounted for 85% of total SOE assets, while the remaining 51 firms comprised just 15%. Over the past decade, the number of SOEs has declined due to consolidations and institutional transitions into government agencies.
    Keywords: State-Owned Enterprises — value added — Gross Domestic Product — national accounts — comparative methodology, Indonesia
    JEL: H54 L32 E01 O53
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202586
  3. By: Dhaniel Ilyas (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: This paper examines the resilience of small and micro enterprises (SMEs) in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using panel data from the Micro and Small Industry Survey (VIMK) conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2019, 2021, and 2022. By employing firm-level panel regressions based on 2-digit KBLI classifications and size categories, the study identifies key structural and behavioral factors associated with firm performance during the crisis period. The results reveal that digital adoption—measured by the use of digital marketing and online sales—is a critical driver of resilience for small firms. The study contributes to the growing body of evidence on how digital strategies can buffer SMEs against external economic shocks and support their post-crisis recovery.
    Keywords: Small and Micro Enterprises (SMEs) — Resilience — COVID-19 — Digital Adoption
    JEL: D22 L25 L26
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202585
  4. By: Van Le Thy Ha
    Abstract: This paper investigates the persistent effects of Vietnam War (1955–1975) bombing on occupations and incomes of different cohorts in 2018. To do this, I link the US National Archives bombing data to a Vietnamese representative household survey. I employ an instrumental variable approach that leverages rounding thresholds used to target villagelevel airstrikes. The results show that bombing increases the share of post-war young cohorts working in low-skilled occupations by 10 percentage points and reduces their income by over 50% in 2018. The effects are even more pronounced for older cohorts who were directly exposed to the war. I estimate that heavily bombed villages lag approximately 1.3 to 1.6 generations behind in occupational transformation. My analysis indicates that educational accessibility and wartime village governance partially mediate these effects. This paper provides the first evidence that bombing distorts occupational and income structures for the post-war generation, causing bombed villages to lag in structural transformation.
    Keywords: bombing, cohorts, income, occupation, Vietnam War
    JEL: F51 J62 N45
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp813
  5. By: Lovina Aisha Malika Putri; Mohamad Ikhsan; Eka Pujiastuti (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: The objectives behind the disbursement of State Capital Injections (Penyertaan Modal Negara/PMN) in Indonesia have historically varied and have been administered on a case-by-case basis. This paper provides both a descriptive overview and an empirical analysis of the determinants influencing PMN allocations to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Specifically, it assesses the impact of capital injections on financially distressed, often termed †zombie†—SOEs, compared to a counterfactual scenario. Employing a panel data fixed-effects regression model, we identify key financial characteristics associated with PMN disbursement. Our findings reveal that SOEs with higher returns on equity and lower debt-to-asset ratios are less likely to receive PMN, indicating a preference for supporting financially weaker firms. Conversely, SOEs with higher debt-to-capital and cash-to-short-term debt ratios—indicators of elevated financial risk—are more likely to obtain fiscal support. Moreover, prior receipt of PMN and the existence of explicit government mandates significantly increase the likelihood of additional capital injections. Survival analysis further suggests that each 1% increase in PMN reduces the probability of an SOE becoming illiquid in the following fiscal year by approximately 4.4%. In addition, receiving PMN in the previous year decreases the likelihood of a firm becoming a zombie enterprise by 37.5%. These findings underscore the need for greater transparency and consistency in the PMN allocation process. We argue that the government should establish clear eligibility criteria and performance benchmarks for SOEs to access capital injections. Imposing harder budget constraints and institutionalizing performance accountability could reduce the fiscal burden and enhance SOE efficiency.
    Keywords: state capital injection — fiscal transfers — state-owned enterprises — zombie firms — fixed effects — survival analysis — Indonesia
    JEL: C23 G33 H81 H82 L32
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202584
  6. By: Klaus Andresen; Ursula Müller; Hans-Jörg Schmerer
    Abstract: This study evaluates the causal impact of Indonesia’s Power Transmission Development Project on regional economic development. Employing the Generalized Synthetic Control Method on district-level satellite data, we find a statistically significant increase in economic activity (p
    Keywords: electricity infrastructure, economic development, nighttime lights, generalized synthetic control
    JEL: C23 H54 O11 O18
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12502
  7. By: Rohan Sweeney (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Farzana Hossain (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University, The Superpower Institute, Melbourne); Jumriani Ansar (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Indra Dwinata (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Sitti Andriani Anwar (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Arlyani Risal (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Gang Chen (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne); Michaela F. Prescott (Faculty of Art Design & Architecture, Monash University); S Fiona Barker (School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University); Karin Leder (School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University); Ansariadi Ansariadi (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); David W. Johnston (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University)
    Abstract: This study employs two discrete choice experiments (DCEs) conducted with two sample groups in Indonesia to investigate the informal settlement upgrading priorities of residents (sample 1) and explore how they align with public taxpayers’ preferences (sample 2). The first DCE explores the relative importance placed upon common planning and public health priorities, such as water security, drainage, and diarrhoea in children, alongside local economic development priorities. The second DCE investigates the relative importance placed upon project implementation design considerations, including project completion time and community consultation. Our findings reveal that residents particularly prioritise improvements in water quality and economic development. While informal settlement upgrading interventions often prioritise improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) to reduce diarrhoea and other water-borne disease, our study highlights that residents also highly value economic empowerment, underscoring the need for integrated upgrading approaches that address both health and livelihood concerns. Taxpayer perspectives were well-aligned on upgrading outcome priorities, but diverged slightly on project implementation. Whereas residents prioritized minimizing project duration and were less concerned with significant community consultation, taxpayers emphasized generating employment opportunities for residents within project designs. Both groups expressed an aversion to residents bearing full responsibility for resourcing ongoing operations and maintenance, preferring government or shared responsibility, highlighting the need for sustainable funding models. The study highlights the value of DCEs as a tool to support locally-led development, informing upgrading strategies that are more likely to be both politically feasible and successfully appropriated into urban livelihood practices of residents.
    Keywords: informal settlements, slum upgrading, infrastructure appropriation, locally-led development, discrete choice experiment
    JEL: O18 H41 I15 O12
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2026-02
  8. By: Ho, Christine; Kim, Dahye; Ray, Rohan; Teerawichitchainan, Bussarawan
    Abstract: Health and well-being in mature adulthood are important concerns given the prevalence of individuals aging without children. We exploit two new instruments for childlessness—infertility and the number of childless siblings—and condition our analyses on a rich set of covariates including childhood health and financial status, to investigate the causal relationship between childlessness and health in middle age and older adulthood. Using a nationwide dataset of 1500 Singaporeans aged 50 and above, we show that OLS underestimates the negative effects of childlessness on health. We find that childlessness leads to higher likelihood of poorer self-reported health and mental distress. The results are robust to a battery of sensitivity analyses, including bounding the effects by relaxing the exclusion restrictions.
    Keywords: health and well-being; childlessness; instrumental variable; bounds; aging
    JEL: I10 I31 J13 J14
    Date: 2026–04–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137147

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