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on South East Asia |
| By: | Kumar, Deepak; Ta, Chi; Gupta. Anubhab |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of low-intensity typhoons—tropical storms and depressions—on local activity in Vietnam. Leveraging monthly electricity consumption data for over two million households across three coastal provinces from 2012–2022, we construct a high-resolution panel merged with typhoon track data. We exploit hyperlocal variation in typhoon exposure using a dynamic event study and a stacked difference-in-differences design, defining treatment based on proximity within 17 kilometers of a storm’s path. Results show a sharp and statistically significant decline in electricity consumption—up to 5% in the month of landfall—concentrated in areas directly hit by tropical storms. Tropical depressions exhibit smaller, noisier effects. Comparison with BRDF-corrected nighttime lights (NTL) data reveals that electricity consumption provides more reliable estimates of typhoon impacts at lower administrative levels, as NTL measures fail the parallel trends test. Our findings underscore the economic relevance of frequently overlooked, lower-intensity storms and highlight the value of granular energy data in assessing disaster-induced disruptions in developing country contexts. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360982 |
| By: | Paul David Richard Griffiths (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Abhishek Mukherjee (University of Waikato [Hamilton]); Paresha N Sinha (University of Waikato [Hamilton]) |
| Abstract: | Purpose -This study aims to investigate the diffusion of financial technology (Fintech) in Vietnam by applying a service ecosystem perspective. It reconsiders traditional innovation diffusion approaches by focusing on the interplay of services, institutions and ecosystem dynamics across distinct Fintech service domains. Design/methodology/approach -This study employed a qualitative approach using the Knowledge Cafe method for data collection. Transcripts were coded and analysed thematically across different diffusion phases. Findings were validated through a half-day workshop with banking professionals. Findings -Government regulation in Vietnam has enhanced trust within the Fintech ecosystem, driving digital transactions and financial inclusion. However, as the regulations are heavily focused on the payment services, an uneven diffusion of innovation across the seven Fintech service domains is evident. Practical implications -Regulation can accelerate Fintech diffusion in early stages, as seen in Vietnam's payments sector, but may hinder innovation as technologies mature. Policymakers must adapt regulatory frameworks to balance stability with ongoing innovation. Originality/value -This study advances theory by analysing Fintech diffusion by service domain rather than as a unified sector and by extending the innovation diffusion theory to an emerging market context. Applying a service ecosystem lens reveals the multi-level dynamics shaping Fintech adoption, offering a more nuanced understanding across domains. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Innovation diffusion, Fintech, Financial services, Emerging market institutions |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05398969 |
| By: | Lwin, Wuit Yi; Schaefer, K. Aleks; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | The impacts of conflicts on food markets vary significantly across cases, influenced by a multitude of contextual factors. How do armed conflicts and their aftermath influence the retail prices of staple foods? As a new case study of conflicts and staple food markets in currently conflict-affected areas, we examine how retail staple food prices across different locations are reshaped by analyzing the interplay of factors such as economic activity, population density, conflict severity, proximity to borders and capitals, and the distance between markets. Using monthly retail rice prices from 219 markets located in 114 townships across 9 states and 5 divisions of Myanmar, along with a set of explanatory variables, we investigate the determinants of rice price levels and volatility in individual markets, and the rate of price transmission and price dispersion between market pairs during the pre- and post-coup periods. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between retail rice prices and both conflict severity and travel distance to capitals. Conflicts in source markets lead to a faster rate of price transmission, while conflicts in destination markets result in a slower rate of price transmission. Proximity to borders significantly influences retail rice price levels, price volatility, and the rate of price transmission between market pairs. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361224 |
| By: | Sonoda, Tadashi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between earned nonfarm income and farm performance in Bangladesh. Specifically, the study assesses the impact of components of nonfarm income (wage, self-employment, and salary incomes) on input utilization and technical efficiency. The study uses panel data from Bangladesh's Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) and Tobit procedure to account for potential censoring in our dependent variables. Findings reveal that although overall earned nonfarm income positively affects total crop production expenditures and investments in seeds and irrigation, it shows a negative impact on expenses for fertilizer, labor, and equipment. The disaggregated sources of earned nonfarm income show that nonfarm income sources have heterogeneous effects—salary and wage income generally decrease agricultural investments and technical efficiency. Still, self-employment income shows a positive impact on expenditures for farming inputs and technical efficiency. Finally, climatic shocks significantly influence input use patterns, with affected farmers increasing expenditures on fertilizer, irrigation, and labor. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between sources of earned nonfarm income and farm performance and technical efficiency in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360942 |
| By: | Yue Zhang (Audencia Business School); Haozhi Chen; Xiaolei He (Guangzhou University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a multilayer dynamic network framework to evaluate the systemic importance of 348 firms listed in China's A-share market over the period 2010-2021. By employing the maximum mutual information coefficient (MIC), the model captures both linear and nonlinear interdependencies, integrating firm-specific tail risk indicators and tradingbased metrics. Topological analysis of the network, including connectivity, clustering, and centrality measures, reveals structural drivers of systemic risk propagation. The results show that firms with high centrality and interconnectedness disproportionately amplify systemic vulnerabilities, underscoring their critical roles in financial stability. The multilayer dynamic framework significantly enhances the precision of systemic risk assessment compared to traditional single-layer models. This study contributes to systemic risk literature by extending advanced network methodologies to emerging markets and offers actionable insights for policymakers and regulators to design effective risk mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Systemic risk, Topological theory, Multilayer financial network, Systemically important corporations |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05306848 |
| By: | Yuji HONJO; Arito ONO; Daisuke TSURUTA |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional financial development influences new firm creation and growth in Japan. Using prefecture–year panel data from 2007 to 2023, we distinguish between regional equity and debt capital, proxied by the number of investment limited partnerships and bank branches, respectively. We find that regions with greater equity capital have more newly founded firms and initial public offerings, and provide suggestive evidence of stronger sales growth among young firms (firms within five years of establishment), whereas regional debt capital has no significant effect. Moreover, regional equity capital is associated with higher employment shares of medium- and large-sized young firms and lower shares of small ones, implying that regional equity capital promotes a compositional shift in new firm creation toward larger entrants. These findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns and to alternative measures of financial development. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26005 |
| By: | Kazuma EDAMURA; Tsutomu MIYAGAWA |
| Abstract: | Environment-related investments represent challenges for private sector firms due to uncertainty about their future impact on corporate value and capital formation. Previous empirical research has overlooked such incentive structures. Following the approach of Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (2021), we estimated a firm value function with multiple assets including environment-related R&D as explanatory variables, based on the concept that associated costs of capital accumulation can contribute to future productivity improvements. Our estimation for manufacturing firms finds that environmental R&D contributes to firm value positively and significantly. These effects are particularly evident in large firms and those engaging in technology trade. This suggests that such investments facilitate technological accumulation to meet the demands of international consumers and regulatory frameworks. However, recent shifts in global policy such as the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement may weaken incentives for Japanese firms with close ties to U.S. markets. If Japan wants to continue to pursue policy that is aligned with the Paris Agreement, stronger government support for private sector environmental initiatives will be necessary. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25124 |
| By: | Sho HANEDA; Hyeog Ug KWON |
| Abstract: | Since China's accession to the WTO, the impact of increased competition from Chinese imports (the "China shock") on employment and productivity in many developed countries has become a major concern for policy makers. The share of manufacturing workers in the total number of employees has been declining, and Japan is no exception. The paper empirically examines the impact of the increase in imports from China on employment using questionnaire information of the Census of Manufactures and the Economic Census for Business Activity as well as the Trade Statistics of Japan and the National Freight Flows Survey (Logistics Census) . The main results are twofold. First, imports of intermediate products from China have a positive impact on employment at Japanese firms. Second, imports of capital products from China might have a negative effect on employment growth. Thus, reducing trade barriers in intermediate products, participating in global value chains, and supporting inter- and intra-industry labor mobility for specific workers, regions, and industries that are negatively affected by capital goods are key to employment growth in Japan. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25123 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Alexandre Gaillard; Ana Maria Santacreu; Henry L. Young |
| Abstract: | We study how the sectoral composition of exports and imports shapes bilateral trade flows. Building on earlier similarity indices, we introduce the Partner Similarity Index (PSI), which measures sectoral alignment between a country’s export structure and its partner’s import demand. Embedded in a gravity framework, PSI is a strong predictor of bilateral trade flows after accounting for standard gravity determinants, trade policy variables, and high-dimensional fixed effects. Applied to China and advanced economies, the index reveals growing asymmetries: China’s export basket is increasingly aligned with advanced-economy import demand, while China’s import demand has become progressively less aligned with advanced-economy exports. |
| Keywords: | international trade; export similarity; sectoral composition; gravity |
| JEL: | F12 F14 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:102334 |
| By: | Banri ITO; Eiichi TOMIURA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of initiating cross-border data flows on firm productivity, using original survey data from Japanese manufacturing and service firms collected in 2019 and 2021, merged with annual productivity measures over 2019–2022. The survey identifies new entrants into cross-border data transfers, enabling a difference-in-differences design that compares “switchers†to firms that either do not collect data or collect data only domestically. We estimate the average treatment effect on the treated using regression-adjustment, inverse probability weighting, and doubly robust AIPW DID estimators, controlling for exporter status, multinational affiliation, R&D intensity, and ICT cost intensity. The results show that firms with higher initial productivity are more likely to start transferring data internationally, which is consistent with self-selection patterns documented in the export- and FDI-related literature. Entry into cross-border data flows is associated with significant productivity gains, which become particularly pronounced in the year after entry. These findings provide rare firm-level evidence from Japan, while also offering broader insights for data-governance debates by highlighting the potential productivity costs of overly restrictive cross-border data regulations. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25125 |
| By: | Liya WANG; Ritsu KITAGAWA; Takuya TAKAHASHI |
| Abstract: | Japanese professional speedboat racing is one of the few sports where men and women compete in the same race, though the gender balance is skewed in favor of men. The Japan Motor Boat Racing Association randomly assigns racers to either single-sex or mixed-sex races and implemented a policy raising the minimum weight for male racers from 51kg to 52kg after November 1, 2020. The random assignment and the exogenous policy shock enable us to shed light on affirmative action policy, which can be regarded as a practice that reduces competitive intensity for female racers and to explore how it affects their incentives to exert effort. We use start time as a proxy measure of effort, as it is an objective absolute measure that is highly correlated with placements, and we use advanced starts, which result in disqualification and are a representation of risk-taking in an attempt to shorten start time to as close to zero seconds as possible, as a measure of risk-taking. Using over 175, 000 female racer-race observations from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2022, we find that: (1) shifting from single-sex to mixed-sex races decreases the effort of middle- and low-ability female racers, while increasing the risk-taking behavior of high-ability female racers; (2) the policy change mitigates the discouragement effect on the effort of middle- and low-ability female racers when shifting from single-sex to mixed-sex races, whereas it has no effect on high-ability female racers; (3) overall, the affirmative action can promote the effort of female racers on average. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26003 |
| By: | Saha, Kajari |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between climate shocks and women’s experiences of physical intimate partner violence (P-IPV) in rural India. Using geo-coded weather data linked to domestic violence reports from the two recent rounds of the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2015–16 and 2019–21), I find that droughts, wet shocks, and extreme heat during the most recent kharif growing season significantly increase the likelihood of women experiencing P-IPV. Specifically, exposure to a drought during the growing season increases the prevalence of less-severe P-IPV by 11.6%, while wet shocks increase severe P-IPV by 30.6%. Heat stress, measured as cumulative degree days above 30°C, is also associated with higher rates of both less-severe and severe IPV. Further analysis suggests that increased economic insecurity, husband’s alcohol use and marital controlling behaviors, and a decline in women’s empowerment are central pathways underlying these effects. Additional heterogeneity analyses reveal that household characteristics — such as land ownership and bank account access play a protective role by offering formal or informal insurance that helps buffer the harmful effects of drought on P-IPV. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360945 |
| By: | Maryam Arif; Soban Saeed |
| Abstract: | Our study investigates the interplay between young women's empowerment and Pakistan's economic growth, focusing on how social media use enhances their businesses and drives economic advancement. We utilize a mixed-methods research design, integrating both online and offline random sampling, for our survey of 51 respondents. We also utilized existing datasets consisting of both social media usage (n = 1000) and entrepreneurship (n = 1092). Our analysis identifies distinct social media engagement patterns via unsupervised learning and applies supervised models for entrepreneurship prediction, with logistic regression outperforming all other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and stability. In social media use, the cluster analysis reveals that at K=2, users form tightly packed, well-separated engagement groups. The results indicate that 39.4 percent of respondents believe social media positively impacts the economy by enabling businesses to generate increased revenue. However, only 14 percent of respondents participate in entrepreneurship, highlighting a substantial gap between digital engagement and business adoption. The analysis indicates that daily social media consumption is widespread with YouTube (66.7 percent) and WhatsApp (62.7 percent) being the most frequently used platforms. Key barriers identified are online harassment, limited digital literacy, and cultural constraints in a patriarchal society such as Pakistan. Additionally, 52.9 percent of respondents are unaware of government initiatives supporting women entrepreneurs, indicating limited policy outreach. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12685 |
| By: | Saha, Roshan; Won, Sunjae; Taylor, Mykel R. |
| Abstract: | Rainfall significantly influences agricultural productivity and labor markets in India. Deviations from ‘normal’ rainfall patterns impact economic outcomes by altering labor supply and wage dynamics. This paper uses two definitions to examine the effects of rainfall shocks on male agricultural wages. First, we classify positive (negative) shocks as deviations above (below) the 80th (20th) percentiles of the historical district-month rainfall distribution (1990–2017). Second, we redefine shocks using the previous 3-year moving reference period to minimize forward-looking bias. Using panel fixed-effects models on district-level data from 586 districts across 20 states, we find that rainfall shocks affect wages asymmetrically. Negative rainfall shocks in harvest season increase male real wages, while positive shocks have mixed effects depending on intensity and timing. But these individual season shocks are not significant when we consider the 3-year recall period. Rather, a negative shock in the sowing season followed by either positive or negative shock in the harvest season, together, influences male wages at the district level. The study underscores the importance of considering the reference period used to define rainfall shocks. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360941 |
| By: | Anukriti, S.; Herrera Almanza, Catalina; Hossain, Shahadat; Karra, Mahesh |
| Abstract: | We document the relationship between son preference and women’s mental health and well-being using data on mothers-in-law and their co-resident daughters-in-law from rural India. We leverage exogenous variation in the sex of the daughter-in-law’s firstborn child to analyze the effect of a firstborn (grand)son on the (grand)mother’s mental health and the relationship between the mother-in-law and the daughter-in-law. Mothers-in-law with firstborn grandsons experience an 18 percent reduction in the risk of anxiety or depression compared to mothers-in-law with firstborn granddaughters. We find no impact of a firstborn son on daughter-in-law mental health. The birth of a grandson also increases mother-in-law approval of her daughter-in-law working outside the home and using family planning, as well as the daughter-in-law’s labor force participation and modern contraceptive use. Our findings highlight the costs of gender-biased norms and the need for interventions that jointly address gender equity and mental wellness to improve women’s well-being. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360992 |
| By: | Anqi LI; Shiko MARUYAMA; Yangyang ZHANG |
| Abstract: | In 2016, China's Universal Two-Child Policy ended the decades-long One-Child Policy. Fertility rose through 2017 and then fell, fueling claims that the reform's effects were transitory. Using the China Family Panel Studies and province-year exemption histories since the 1980s, we reconstruct couple-year second-child eligibility and estimate its causal effect. Eligibility raises the second-birth probability by 7.1 percentage points, with effects persisting for at least a decade. Counterfactual simulations imply that relaxations lifted the TFR level but left its secular downward slope largely intact, highlighting the distinction between a temporary spike, an upward level shift, and a genuine reversal of decline. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26001 |