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on South East Asia |
| By: | Schneider, Friedrich (University of Linz); Asllani, Alban (Royal Docks School of Business and Law, University of East London) |
| Abstract: | Illicit tobacco trade poses a major challenge to revenue integrity, public health policy and state capacity across Southeast Asia. While policy debates often link illicit tobacco markets to high excise tax rates, this paper argues that illicit trade is better understood as a structural governance problem shaped by the interaction between tax design, regulation and enforcement capacity. Focusing on six ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — the paper develops a three-pillar framework centred on excise tax structure, regulatory oversight and enforcement systems. The analysis shows that the illicit tobacco trade does not follow a uniform regional pattern. E.g. Indonesia is characterised by domestic evasion and informal production; the Philippines by the benefits and limits of excise reform; Singapore by persistent external supply pressure despite strong enforcement; and Vietnam by brand-specific illicit demand rooted in historical policy choices. Effective control requires predictable, administratively simple tax systems, enforceable regulatory frameworks, stronger supply chain and retail controls, and intelligence-led enforcement supported by cross-border cooperation. |
| Keywords: | illicit tobacco trade, excise taxation, shadow economy, revenue integrity, tobacco control, ASEAN |
| JEL: | H26 H21 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18747 |
| By: | Kai Dutsch; Gunther Schnabl |
| Abstract: | Due to a planned economy and several wars, growth and prosperity in Vietnam were low for a long time. Following market-oriented reforms, such as the privatization of agricultural enterprises and the authorization of private companies, growth in Vietnam has accelerated. The stabilization of public finances, inflation, and the exchange rate have contributed significantly to growth. Nevertheless, the gradualist liberalization process is not yet complete, as there is still no truly open financial market and state-owned enterprises still account for a large share of domestic value added. As a result, growth momentum is driven primarily by foreign direct investment and exports. More reforms are necessary to catch up with more advanced East Asian industrialized nations such as Thailand, South Korea, and Japan |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, planned economy, market economy, reforms, Đổi Mới, China Plus One, transshipment, financial market liberalization, state-owned enterprises. |
| JEL: | O53 N15 F14 G20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12783 |
| By: | Sidel, John T.; Goh, Evelyn; Yeung, Henry Wai-chung; Ho, Selina; Camba, Alvin |
| JEL: | F50 F52 L98 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138832 |
| By: | Bazzi, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Building a cohesive nation-state amid deep ethnic, linguistic, and religious diversity is a central challenge for many governments. This paper examines the process of nation building, drawing lessons from the remarkable experience of Indonesia over the past century. I discuss conceptual perspectives on nation building and review Indonesia's historical nation-building trajectory. I then synthesize insights from four studies exploring distinct policy interventions in Indonesia — population resettlement, administrative unit proliferation, land reform, and mass schooling — to understand their effects on social cohesion and national integration. Together, these cases underscore the promise and pitfalls of nation-building efforts in diverse societies, offering guidance for future research and policymaking to support these endeavors in Indonesia and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Development; Diversity; Identity; Religion |
| JEL: | D74 H77 O15 O43 P48 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20897 |
| By: | Angrist, Noam; Kabay, Sarah; Karlan, Dean; Lau, Lincoln; Wong, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Children spend most of their time at home in their early years, yet efforts to promote human capital at home in many low- and middle-income settings remain limited. We conduct a randomized controlled trial to evaluate an intervention which encourages parents and caregivers to foster human capital accumulation among their children between ages 3 and 5, with a focus on math and phonics skills. Children gain 0.52 and 0.51 standard deviations relative to the control group on math and phonics tests, respectively (p |
| Keywords: | Parents |
| JEL: | I2 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21178 |
| By: | La Ode Muhammad Hajarullah Daede (International University of Japan); Norio Usui (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Stable and sustainable fiscal resources are foundational to government operations, enabling the provision of public services, investments, and economic management. It is thus critical to strengthen domestic tax revenues through tax reforms. Indonesia has implemented a series of tax reforms since the 1980s, and one of the milestone reforms were conducted in 2008. This study estimates the causal impact of Indonesia fs 2008 tax reforms on revenue mobilization, foreign direct investment, and the underground economy. The study applies the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual scenario that represents Indonesia in the absence of the reforms. The results show that, while the reforms increased tax revenue, particularly direct tax revenue, in the first year, it had declined in the subsequent years. This result is supported by another result of an increasing underground economy after the reforms. These findings are consistent with other studies suggesting that the mechanical effects of tax reform may exceed its behavioural effects, leading to a negative overall impact on revenue performance. This study also finds that the reforms had no significant effect on foreign direct investment even after eight years of implementation. This study contributes to the empirical literature on the measurement of tax reform impacts with the application of the SCM and proposes policy insights for future tax reform design and evaluation, particularly in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Tax Reform, Revenue Mobilization, FDI, Underground Economy, SCM |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_14 |
| By: | Aurélien Baillon (emlyon Business School); Joseph Capuno (University of the Philippines Diliman); Aleli Kraft (University of the Philippines Diliman); Jenny Kudymowa (Rethink Priorities); Owen O'Donnell (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval (10%, 85%] are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely to have a check-up before baseline if they exhibit inverse- S distortion. A random lottery offer conditional on going for a check-up (CVD screening) increases the probability by 47 points overall. Estimates of compliance and lottery-induced CVD preventive care are larger (not significantly) for inverse- S (but also S) types perceiving intermediate risk. |
| Keywords: | Prospect Theory, Probability Weighting, Behavioral Incentive, Lottery, Self-selection |
| JEL: | D81 D91 I12 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260012 |
| By: | Chrisvianto, Ivan Immanuel |
| Abstract: | Geographical Indications (GIs) serve as crucial communal intellectual property rights for preserving local heritage and accelerating regional economic growth in Indonesia. However, the massive migration of trade to e-commerce platforms has introduced novel threats, including trademark infringement, counterfeit claims of origin, and commercial reputation piracy. Under Law No. 20 of 2016 on Trademarks and Geographical Indications, the Geographical Indication Protection Community (MPIG) holds the legal mandate as the primary guardian of product originality. This academic article critically examines the juridical and factual capacity of MPIGs in confronting rampant GI infringements within the digital sphere. Utilizing a normative legal research method with statutory and conceptual approaches, this study exposes a severe capacity asymmetry. The findings demonstrate that existing regulations fail to provide adaptive digital enforcement instruments for communal institutions like MPIGs. Furthermore, structural barriers, including a lack of digital forensic technology, absence of independent funding, and the safe harbor policies of e-commerce platforms, isolate MPIGs from the enforcement ecosystem. This article recommends regulatory reconstruction to mandate AI-driven proactive metadata filtering by digital platforms, interconnected directly with MPIG and the Directorate General of Intellectual Property databases. Keywords: Geographical Indications, MPIG, E-Commerce, Digital Law Enforcement, Communal Rights. |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:pndwg_v1 |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Recent years have exposed global supply chains to unprecedented uncertainty arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism, sustainability pressures, and rapid digital transformation. Most recently, tariff measures introduced under the second Trump administration have further intensified uncertainty for firms operating across international production networks. Drawing on firm interviews and surveys of Japanese, other multinational, and ASEAN local firms, this policy brief examines how businesses are responding to four interconnected challenges: (1) evolving US trade policy, including reciprocal tariffs; (2) broader supply chain uncertainty; (3) decarbonisation requirements; and (4) digital transformation. It finds that firms are increasingly diversifying procurement, production, and markets, investing in digital technologies, and integrating sustainability into business strategies, while continuing to face significant policy, regulatory, and investment constraints. The brief argues that geographical diversification alone is insufficient to ensure resilient supply chains. Instead, ASEAN’s long-term competitiveness will depend on coordinated policies that strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, decarbonisation, and digital transformation. It concludes with policy recommendations for reinforcing ASEAN’s position as a resilient, competitive, and sustainable global production hub. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2026-03 |
| By: | Ciscato, Edoardo; Do, Quoc-Anh; Nguyen, Kieu-Trang |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates the prevalence, pervasiveness, persistence, and resilience of a system of non-Big God religious beliefs, in absence of religious organizations and moralizing prescriptions, thanks to a self-fulfilling mechanism based on social insurance. We focus on the Vietnamese's beliefs in marriage fortune predictions by the Taoist astrological system Tá» Vi. First, we estimate a structural model of assortative marriage matching and show that such beliefs' importance in marriage formation amounts to 6.5% of that of the entire age and education profile. Second, we estimate the effect of auspiciousness on couples' outcomes while controlling for selection into marriage using the structural model's predictions. Auspicious couples receive 11% more social transfers from their extended family, and up to 28% under hardship, because they are believed to be more harmonious and lucky. They further enjoy more consumption, income, and other welfare measures. We link the system's long-term persistence and resilience to its potential role as a commitment device between families. |
| Keywords: | Non-Big God Religion; Self-fulfilling prophecy; Marriage market; Social transfers; Social insurance |
| JEL: | Z12 J12 D64 G52 O15 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21080 |
| By: | Rabia Bashir (Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Muhammad Ahmad Author-2-Workplace-Name: Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Imran Arshad Author-3-Workplace-Name: Riphah School of Leadership, Riphah International University, Islamabad, Pakistan Author-4-Name: Sultan Rehman Sheri Author-4-Workplace-Name: Department of Management and Law, Faculty of Business Management and Professional Studies, Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Malaysia Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study examines how financial constraints and financial resilience influence financial distress among Malaysian listed firms from 2015 to 2024. It additionally compares distressed and non-distressed firms to examine their performance with respect to financial constraints and financial resilience. Also, the study examines whether these patterns differ in large versus small firms. Methodology/Technique - Using panel data on Malaysian-listed firms, the study measures financial distress with the modified Altman Z-score and classifies firms as distressed or non-distressed. To examine differences in financial constraints and resilience, the research uses the Kruskal-Wallis test. Then, to further investigate the direct effects of financial constraints and financial resilience on financial distress, the study uses dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation. Findings - Distressed firms face tighter financial constraints and show less resilience than their non-distressed counterparts. The dynamic GMM results further indicate that financial constraints increase financial distress, whereas financial resilience decreases it. The heterogeneous analysis shows that, for large firms, financial resilience matters most, whereas for small firms, financial constraints matter most. Contribution - This study contributes to the literature on financial distress by simultaneously testing the roles of financial constraints and financial resilience within a unified empirical framework, whereas past research has tended to focus separately on financing frictions, the prediction of distress, or indicators of resilience. Additionally, it provides new empirical evidence from an emerging market, Malaysia, where firms' financing structures, information asymmetry, and institutional environment differ considerably from those in developed economies. It extends previous findings by demonstrating that financial constraints and financial resilience affect firms differently across firm sizes. It shows that financial constraints influence financial distress more in small firms, while financial resilience influences financial distress in large firms. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Financial constraints; financial resilience, financial distress, Malaysia, GMM |
| JEL: | M13 M40 M49 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:afr249 |
| By: | Ma, Debin; Rubin, Jared; Weiwen, Yin |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new insights onto the importance of knowledge acquisition for enabling developing countries to reach the world’s economic frontier. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21273 |