|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Chinmaya Behera (Goa Institute of Management); Badri Narayan Rath (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of trade openness and COVID-19 shock on output volatility. Quarterly data from 2010 to 2022 are used, focussing on six Member States within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The analysis, conducted through timeseries regression, reveals that trade openness had a notable impact on output volatility in most ASEAN Member States, excluding Thailand and Indonesia. Furthermore, it found that the pandemic had an impact on the output volatility of Thailand and the Philippines. Macroeconomic variables were also incorporated, such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and inflation. Under the panel framework, it was found that both variables significantly impacted output volatility. These findings indicate that policymakers should prioritise trade openness and inflation control during uncertain events, such as a global pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Trade openness; COVID-19 shock; Output volatility; Inflation; FDI |
| JEL: | F10 F1 F17 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-31 |
| By: | Kaoru Nabeshima (Waseda University); Ayako Obashi (Keio University); Kunhyui Kim (Nagoya University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop and examine an indicator for regulatory harmonisation amongst member countries in a given regional agreement based on the regulatory differences between countries using a non-tariff measure (NTM) data set. This study defines the ‘optimal’ set of regulations as the set of regulations where the adoption cost (i.e. differences in regulation between a base country and a partner country) is the lowest, considering all the possible trading pairs in an agreement. This provides guidance to policymakers regarding which country’s regulations could serve as the basis for discussion on regulatory harmonisation. To do so, we examine regional integration efforts in Asia – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community (AEC), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and China–Japan–Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement negotiations (CJK). |
| Keywords: | NTMs, regional integration, AEC, CPTPP, RCEP, and China–Japan–Korea FTA negotiations |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-25 |
| By: | K.P. Prabheesh (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, India); C.T. Vidya (Center for Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad, India.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the global semiconductor industry trade network and the place of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in it. The network analysis parameters (e.g. degree centrality, eigenvector centrality, and closeness) are calculated for two semiconductor product classifications (i.e. Harmonized System (HS) 8541 and HS 8542) as well as key inputs for the manufacturing process and testing, packaging, and distribution. The study finds that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has a significant adverse effect on the semiconductor trade network. It finds that the central position in the network is determined by Germany, the United States, China, Belgium, India, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. It is also found that Singapore, an ASEAN Member State, occupies the central position in the trade network. Other ASEAN Member States, such as Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, have been well integrated in the trade network in recent years. However, countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) are still in the peripheral area of the network. Nonetheless, over the years, these countries have improved their participation in semiconductor trade.The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted trade in key inputs and manufacturing parts of semiconductor production. It has drastically reduced the trade flows, connectivity, and dependence of many countries in the network. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductor trade; COVID-19; ASEAN; trade network; regional trade |
| JEL: | D85 F14 F15 L63 |
| Date: | 2024–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-32 |
| By: | C.T. Vidya (Centre for Economic and Social Studies (CESS), Hyderabad, India) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the trade characteristics, competition networks, and fragility of global trade in goods in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies, particularly in the context of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The study covers the 10 ASEAN Member States and 110 trade partners, using the Harmonized System (HS) 6-digit product classification from 2010 to 2021. The findings reveal that ASEAN dominates with trade complementarity. Dense and intense competition networks are found. The electrical and machinery imports from central players are highly sensitive to shocks, with electronics also becoming susceptible to shocks after the pandemic. The study also shows that liquefied natural gas products and countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, and Myanmar experienced increased shocks. The research underscores the importance of policymakers prioritising their understanding of trade linkages and potential spillover effects when formulating policies to mitigate the impact of shocks. The findings have implications for policymakers, highlighting the need for them to take a holistic approach when devising policies and strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of global shocks. |
| Keywords: | Export similarity, trade complementarity, competition trade networks, trade fragility, ASEAN |
| JEL: | F14 F15 L14 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-27 |
| By: | Ridha Aditya Nugraha; Eri Yoga Sidharta; Luki Safriana; Dian Ayu Aryani; Vicia Sacharissa |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-02 |
| By: | R. Dwi Tjahja K. Wardhono (Bank Indonesia); Danny Hermawan (Bank Indonesia); Dyah Cahyaningtyas (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Perdagangan internasional antarnegara pada umumnya menggunakan Dolar Amerika Serikat (USD) sebagai mata uang utama perdagangan. Ketergantungan yang tinggi terhadap mata uang USD telah meningkatkan kerentanan ekonomi suatu negara terhadap guncangan ekonomi global. Kondisi ini mendorong beberapa negara besar seperti Tiongkok, Rusia dan Jepang untuk membuat skema transaksi dengan beralih ke mata uang lokal untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada USD. Skema ini disebut dengan Local Currency Settlement/LCS yang kemudian diperluas menjadi Local Currency Transaction/LCT (Transaksi Bilateral Menggunakan Mata Uang Lokal/TBUL). Indonesia saat ini telah melakukan kerja sama TBUL dengan negara Malaysia, Thailand, Jepang, dan Tiongkok. Dengan adanya skema TBUL, penggunaan mata uang lokal kedua negara bukan hanya dapat dimanfaatkan untuk transaksi perdagangan dan investasi saja, tetapi juga lebih diarahkan pada transaksi ritel dan dapat digunakan dalam bertransaksi di pasar uang. Peneliti memandang bahwa penelitian ini merupakan hal yang baru dan ingin melihat skema TBUL yang ada di Indonesia apakah sudah cukup didukung oleh regulasi, pengawasan, dan infrastruktur yang memadai sehingga diharapkan agar implementasi TBUL ke depan dapat berjalan lebih efisien, aman, dan handal, sehingga memberikan perlindungan bagi konsumen. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode normatif dan deskriptif. Dari pengamatan awal, peneliti mamandang bahwa dengan melihat peraturan perundang-undangan yang diterbitkan serta mekanisme cross border payment yang digunakan masih diperlukan penyempurnaan terhadap peraturan eksisting, harmonisasi koordinasi antar Kementerian/ Lembaga dan antar bank sentral terutama terkait dengan pricing, pertukaran atau pelaporan data, dan pengembangan infrastruktur yang lebih aman, efisian dan handal. |
| Keywords: | LCS, LCT, TBUL, Perlindungan Konsumen, Pengawasan, Cross Border Transaction |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp022023 |
| By: | Retno Muhardini (Bank Indonesia); Aryo Sasongko (Bank Indonesia); Wahyoe Soedarmono (Sampoerna University); Zakka Farisy B (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji literatur internal Bank Indonesia tentang Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (SSK) khususnya yang membahas risiko likuiditas dan risiko kredit. Sebagai pengenalan karakter perbankan Indonesia, ditemukan indikator-indikator perbankan domestik di antara kelompok negara-negara ASEAN yang spesifik, seperti CAR, NIM, NPL, dan CrGDP. Hasil survei literatur risiko likuiditas memperlihatkan bahwa penelitian-penelitian internal telah membahas berbagai aspek, seperti perilaku bank, kebijakan makro prudensial, dampak fiskal, model peramalan, dan faktor ekonomi makro yang memengaruhi likuiditas bank. Hasil survei literatur risiko kredit membahas berbagai aspek, seperti perilaku pemegang kartu kredit, dampak pembiayaan konsumen, risiko wanprestasi, kebijakan makro prudensial, model risiko kredit, pengaruh harga komoditas, dan pengaruh siklus berlawanan antara sektor bisnis dengan keuangan. Literaturliteratur kedua risiko tersebut juga menyoroti beberapa temuan penelitian tentang risiko kredit dan risiko likuiditas, yaitu mendapat pengaruh dari faktor-faktor ekonomi makro, faktor individual bank, dan beberapa penelitian risiko likuiditas menggunakan simulasi kebijakan Bank Sentral. |
| Keywords: | Stabilitas sistem keuangan; Bank Indonesia; Kebijakan makro prudensial; Risiko likuiditas; Risiko kredit; Model risiko kredit |
| JEL: | E58 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp072023 |
| By: | Donni Fajar Anugrah (Bank Indonesia); Retno Muhardini (Bank Indonesia); Wahyoe Soedarmono (Sampoerna University); Zaki Intan Cindyagita (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Inflation is a crucial topic that has been extensively researched by academics and government authorities, including central banks as monetary authorities. Maintaining inflation at a stable and low level is a fundamental basis for improving the well-being of the population and sustaining economic growth. This research aims to conduct a comprehensive literature review of Bank Indonesia's internal research and studies on inflation, with the objective of identifying research gaps to recommend future research directions. Through a literature survey method, 149 research outcomes/internal studies published by Bank Indonesia from 1965 to 2022 in the Bank Indonesia's internal repository were collected and reviewed. Findings from this literature study provide a complex overview of the factors influencing inflation and the policies required to achieve sustainable price stability in Indonesia. The review in this study encompasses inflation from basic theory, spatial aspects, inflation disaggregation, medium-run price formation, Phillips Curve theory, and various other empirical analyses. Differences in inflation literature findings between the preInflation Targeting Framework (ITF) and post-ITF periods are also discussed. Several recommendations are proposed, including suggestions for research that support intensified multidisciplinary studies and a deeper understanding of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting, Literature Study |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp092023 |
| By: | Chomik , Rafal (University of New South Wales); O’Keefe , Philip (University of New South Wales); Piggott , John (University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | Asia and the Pacific has the most diverse regional pension landscape globally. Yet the region’s pension systems are facing common challenges as they attempt to expand coverage, and ensure adequacy and fairness, while maintaining fiscal sustainability. We review the structures and performance of pension systems across Asia and the Pacific. Most remain characterized by low contributory coverage, social pensions with inadequate benefits and often low (or no) coverage, and informal sector schemes with modest traction to date. They are also characterized by gender inequities, lack of policy flexibility and attention to labor incentives, and underdeveloped governance structures. The paper makes proposals for addressing these challenges through an expanded role for social pensions with inclusive targeting, reformed contributory schemes, ongoing innovations for the informal sector and women, and enhanced reliance on technology. |
| Keywords: | pension; Asian pension; social protection in Asia; means tested pension |
| JEL: | H55 J18 N35 |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0746 |
| By: | Yoga Affandi (Bank Indonesia); Masagus M. Ridhwan (Bank Indonesia); Irwan Trinugroho (Universitas Sebelas Maret); Danny Hermawan (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the factors affecting digital adoption by ultra-micro, micro, and small enterprises (UMSEs) based on a survey of 5, 035 UMSEs in 17 major provinces in Indonesia. Utilizing the survey data, we also construct a digital adoption index that can be used to evaluate the regional adoption level variations. The result shows that several factors notably owner demographic characteristics, firm-specific factors, business environment, connectivity infrastructure quality, and culture are associated with the disparity in digital adoption by UMSEs. Our finding also shows a positive and significant correlation between digital adoption on business performance (sales growth). We further found strong evidence of the impact of digital adoption on the level of financial literacy of UMSEs’ owners. The latter result suggests that improving digital adoption among micro businesses (UMSEs) could be a lever to enhance their financial literacy. All in all, these findings suggest the vital role of digital transformation for micro-businesses in achieving growth and competitiveness in the global market, undoubtedly requiring robust support from policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Digital Adoption, Ultra-Micro, Micro and Small Enterprises, Firm Performance, Financial Literacy. |
| JEL: | L25 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp132023 |
| By: | Wahyoe Soedarmono (Sampoerna University); Iman Gunadi (Bank Indonesia); Fiskara Indawan (Bank Indonesia); Carla Sheila Wulandari (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines relationship balanced credit on supply side and on demand side in the context of Indonesia bank. The objective of the paper is to examine the behavior of Indonesia banks in managing their supply side into demand side of balance credit. Our empirical results show that the Indonesian banking generally exhibits prudent behavior by increasing capital ratios or funding liquidity in response to an increase in liquidity risk, as measured by the financing gap as proxied of demand side of balance credit. However, a more detailed analysis reveals that big banks tend to reduce their regulatory capital when they face higher liquidity risk. These findings hold true regardless of whether we employ the generalized method of moment estimation or the two-stage least squares estimation.Additionally, we find evidence suggesting that balanced credit between supply side and demand side were not moving in-line together since the banks are facing dynamics measure of balance sheet component such as liquidity, deposit and capital, and is affecting by fundamental factors of the economy. |
| Keywords: | capital, liquidity creation, banking, panel data |
| JEL: | G21 G28 C33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp122023 |
| By: | Bhushan Praveen Jangam (School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, India); Badri Narayan Rath (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana – 502 284, India) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between global value chain (GVC) integration and business cycle synchronisation in selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 2007 to 2021. Using a panel fixed effects approach, we discover the following key findings: First, we find that GVC integration is associated with both output synchronisation and desynchronisation in ASEAN countries. Second, we notice that the outcomes differ depending on the type of GVC integration, such as forward integration, backward integration, or two-sided integration. Third, for a more in-depth understanding, we conduct an industry-specific analysis. We examine three major industry categories: manufacturing, services, and high-technology industries. The findings show mixed evidence of an association between GVC integration and BCS in these industries. The findings highlight the shock transmission associated with GVC integration. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains; Business cycle synchronisation; Fixed effects; Industries; ASEAN |
| JEL: | F1 C5 L6 L8 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-28 |
| By: | Masagus M. Ridhwan (Bank Indonesia); Dionisius A. Narjoko (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Krisna Gupta (Politeknik APP Jakarta) |
| Abstract: | This study uses Indonesia as a case study to address this issue of product market competition and price determination in the food and beverage industry. It utilizes the plant-level data of the food and beverage industry over the period 2017-2021 and estimates the markup using the recent method notably De Loecker-Warzynksi (2012). The study found a declining and stable pattern of industrial concentration over a long-term period from 2000 to 2021, which indicates a more or less moderate competition between firms in product markets of the industry in general. The econometric exercise found a positive relationship between industrial (or market) concentration and either price cost margin or markup, suggesting the potential influence of market power on the extent of profitability in the industry. This study however found no evidence of the relationship between the two variables and price. The findings of this study suggest that policy towards the food and beverage industry should focus on monitoring the extent and dynamics of product market competition as it found some degree of the exercise of market power. |
| Keywords: | Product market competition, industrial concentration, mark-up, price, food and beverage industry |
| JEL: | A11 B11 C11 D11 F11 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp032023 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Kilic, Talip; Abanokova, Kseniya; Carletto, Calogero |
| Abstract: | Survey-to-survey imputation has been increasingly employed to address data gaps for poverty measurement in poorer countries. We refine existing imputation models, using 14 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Vietnam. We find that adding household utility expenditures to a basic imputation model with household-level demographic and employment variables provides accurate estimates, which even fall within one standard error of the true poverty rates in many cases. The proposed imputation method performs better than several commonly used multiple imputation and machine learning techniques. Further adding geospatial variables improves accuracy, as does including additional community-level predictors (available from data in Vietnam) related to educational achievement, poverty, and asset wealth. Yet, within-country spatial heterogeneity exists, with certain models performing well for either urban areas or rural areas only. These results offer cost-saving inputs into future survey design. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia; Malawi; Nigeria; Tanzania; Vietnam; consumption; household surveys; poverty; Sub-Saharan Africa; survey-to-survey imputation |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125798 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (World Bank); Cuong Viet Nguyen (Viet Nam National University, and the Mekong Development Research Institute, Hanoi, Viet Nam) |
| Abstract: | We examine the Covid-19 pandemic-induced negative effects on household welfare in rural Viet Nam. Analysing recent Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys spanning 2016–2021, we find robust evidence that lockdown measures resulted in a 3.9% reduction in per capita income and a 2.6 percentage-point increase in the headcount poverty rate of rural households. It also had severe effects on rural households’ wages and self-employed non-farm income, but rural households appeared to have relied on farm income to cope with the lockdowns. Each additional month under lockdown reduced wage income and non-farm income by 2.8% and 6.3% respectively but increased. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, urban-rural gap, income, poverty, rural households, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | E24 I30 J21 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-23 |
| By: | Haris Zuan; Muhammad Faliq Abd Razak; Intan Murnira Ramli (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-03 |
| By: | Hiroaki Ishiwata (Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan); Masashi Sakamoto (Tohoku University); Makoto Ikeda (Kobe University); Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to develop and utilise a multi-regional economic growth model that can take into account flood damage and investment in disaster risk reduction, and, through case studies in Viet Nam, quantitatively analyse the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction on the national and local economy, as well as the optimal scale and timing of investments in flood protection, to gain a better overview of these factors. The results indicate that additional investment in disaster risk reduction could stimulate economic growth, and that the optimal range of the disaster risk reduction budget rate was around 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, assuming a constant budget rate throughout the total 25-year calculation period. In the case of a variable disaster risk reduction budget rate, we observed that a variable budget rate that gradually reduces the disaster risk reduction budget rate from a higher level than the current rate could further promote economic growth than if the budget rate were fixed. In both cases, we verified that with excessive investment in disaster risk reduction, the high tax burden had the risk of reducing investment in production capital and lead to stagnating economic growth. By region, the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction were most seen in the Central region, where the rate of flood damage is the highest. |
| Keywords: | disaster risk reduction investment, extensive flood risk, multi-regional economic growth model, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | C68 E17 H21 H54 O11 O41 O53 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-24 |
| By: | Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Date: | 2024–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-01 |
| By: | Ahmad, Mahyudin; Chen, Jen-Eem; Mohd Zulkifli, Shaliza Azreen; Tan, Yan-Ling; Mustofa, Moh. Solehatul |
| Abstract: | Tourism development has become one of the key drivers of economic growth in many ASEAN countries, however, the adverse environmental impact of tourism and economic growth has raised significant concerns among the policymakers in region. This study investigates the role of tourism development in the context of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis across 10 ASEAN countries over a 25-year period from 1995 to 2019 via panel estimators robust to cross-sectional dependence. The findings reveal tourism contributes to environmental degradation significantly. On the EKC hypothesis, the evidence is mixed as only the Panel Corrected Standard Errors estimation indicates an inverted U-shaped relationship between emissions and GDP per capita. The threshold value of GDP per capita is estimated to be around USD 12, 000 showing that the current economic development in ASEAN is still harmful to environment. Furthermore, renewable energy is found to be a strong mitigating factor. Population size, on the other hand, is a significant driver of both CO2 and GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the complex relationship between tourism development, economic growth, and environmental quality in the ASEAN region. Subsequently, several policy implications are discussed |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve, panel data econometrics, renewable energy, tourism development. |
| JEL: | O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122153 |
| By: | Muhammad Faliq Abd Razak; Sufian Jusoh; Tamat Sarmidi; Intan Murnira Ramli (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2023-15 |
| By: | Mima Sefrina |
| Abstract: | The rapid development of the digital economy in ASEAN offers broad economic and societal opportunities but also accentuates disparities between urban and rural areas, large enterprises and SMEs, and various segments of the population. While inclusiveness has been a priority on ASEAN's agenda, there is room for improvement. The concept of an inclusive digital economy in ASEAN should extend beyond broadband connectivity and necessitates a precise definition through quantifiable measures. Identifying the key elements of exclusion and inclusion as a strategic approach to effectively address inclusiveness issues is essential to understand the barriers hindering the achievement of an inclusive digital economy. There is also a need to identify specific populations, understand their characteristics, and address their needs for inclusion in the digital economy. A robust, region-specific data system that is accessible to the public is critical. In ASEAN, an inclusive digital economy underscores the need to address digital skills, gender inequality, digital finance, and the empowerment of MSMEs as key economic drivers in ASEAN. |
| Keywords: | Inclusive, ASEAN, Inclusive Digital Economy, Digital Economy, MSMEs, Broadband Connectivity, Digital Finance, Gender Disparities, Digital Skills, Internet Speed, Urban and Rural Divide, Digital Divide, Broadband Affordability |
| JEL: | O20 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-33 |
| By: | Edoardo Ciscato; Quoc-Anh Do; Kieu-Trang Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates the prevalence, pervasiveness, persistence, and resilience of a system of non-Big God religious beliefs, in absence of religious organizations and moralizing prescriptions, thanks to a self-fulfilling mechanism based on social insurance. We focus on the Vietnamese’s beliefs in marriage fortune predictions by the Taoist astrological system Tử Vi. First, we estimate a structural model of assortative marriage matching and show that such beliefs’ importance in marriage formation amounts to 6.5% of that of the entire age and education profile. Second, we estimate the effect of auspiciousness on couples’ outcomes while controlling for selection into marriage using the structural model’s predictions. Auspicious couples receive 11% more social transfers from their extended family, and up to 28% under hardship, because they are believed to be more harmonious and lucky. They further enjoy more consumption, income, and other welfare measures. We link the system’s long-term persistence and resilience to its potential role as a commitment device between families. |
| Keywords: | non-Big God religion, traditional beliefs, self-fulfilling prophecy, marriage market, social transfers, social insurance, second-order belief, commitment device |
| JEL: | Z12 J12 D64 G52 O15 D83 D16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11272 |
| By: | Beverly Hirtle; Anna Kovner |
| Abstract: | We analyze 6, 400 letters of recommendation for more than 2, 200 economics and finance Ph.D. graduates from 2018 to 2021. Letter text varies significantly by field of interest, with significantly less positive and shorter letters for Macroeconomics and Finance candidates. Letters for female and Black or Hispanic job candidates are weaker in some dimensions, while letters for Asian candidates are notably less positive overall. We introduce a new measure of letter quality capturing candidates that are recommended to “top” departments. Female, Asian, and Black or Hispanic candidates are all less likely to be recommended to top academic departments, even after controlling for other letter characteristics. Finally, we examine early career outcomes and find that letter characteristics, especially a “top” recommendation have meaningful effects on initial job placements and journal publications. |
| Keywords: | recommendation letters; gender in economics; Race and ethnicity; research institutions; professional labor markets |
| JEL: | A11 A23 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:98958 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | The Caribbean faces mounting challenges related to the management of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). The increasing influx of vehicles, in the face of limited land availability and environmental vulnerabilities, demands a comprehensive and sustainable approach to ELV recycling. The increase in vehicle importation over the past three decades has been made possible, in part, by economic factors such as increased incomes associated with economic growth, as well as social factors such as urbanization and lifestyle preferences which demand greater independence and private mobility (Phillips et al, 2023). Perhaps the most significant impetus however has been the importation and availability of used vehicles, sourced at significantly reduced costs from South-East Asia (Japan, Singapore and South Korea). Today, such imports have resulted in high vehicle population ratios, ranging from between 0.45 to 0.95 for many Caribbean countries. |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:80769 |
| By: | Mohanty, Aatishya (University of Aberdeen); Powdthavee, Nattavudh (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and IZA); Tang, CK (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Oswald, Andrew J (University of Warwick, IZA and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural disasters. This conclusion holds whether or not we control for the (incorrectly signed) impact of temperature. The analysis draws upon longdifferences regression equations using GDIS data from 1960-2018 for 176 countries and the contiguous states of the USA. Results are checked on FEMA data. Wellbeing impact losses are calculated. To our knowledge, the paper’s results are unknown to natural and social scientists. |
| Keywords: | Global warming; temperature standard deviation; human wellbeing; happiness; disasters; BRFSS; WVS JEL Classification: Q54; I31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:725 |
| By: | Overhaus, Marco |
| Abstract: | Die Idee, dass US-amerikanische Macht internationale Sicherheit schafft, ist in der politischen Elite der USA bis heute tief verankert. Sie liegt letztendlich auch den von den USA geführten Bündnissen, einschließlich der Nato, zugrunde. Doch tatsächlich erodieren die drei Säulen der Pax Americana - die militärische Dominanz der Vereinigten Staaten, ihre wirtschaftliche Offenheit sowie die liberal-demokratischen Grundlagen der amerikanischen Außenpolitik - schon seit längerem. Der Ausgang der US-Wahlen am 5. November 2024 kann diese Trends beschleunigen oder verzögern, nicht jedoch grundsätzlich umkehren. Vor diesem Hintergrund muss es für Deutschland und die anderen Bündnispartner nach den Wahlen darum gehen, die transatlantischen Beziehungen auf eine neue Grundlage zu stellen. Das gilt auch dann, wenn Kamala Harris gegen Donald Trump siegen sollte. |
| Keywords: | Transatlantische Beziehungen, Internationalismus, Isolationismus, Nato, Rückversicherung, Abschreckung, Sicherheitszusagen, Iran, Nordkorea, General Agreement on Tarrifs and Trade, GATT, Bretton-Woods-System, Handelsbeschränkungen, Exportkontrollen, Strafzölle, Sanktionen, OSZE, ASEAN |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:304327 |
| By: | Ifeanyichi, Martilord; Mosso Lara, Jose; Tenkorang, Phyllis; Kebede, Meskerem; Bognini, Maeve; Abdelhabeeb, Alshaheed; Amaechina, Uchenna Ogechi; Ambreen, Faiza; Sarabu, Shreeja; Oladimeji, Taiwo; Toguchi, Ana; Hargest, Rachel; Friebel, Rocco |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness evidence is a critical tool to support resource allocation decisions. There is growing recognition that the development of benefit packages for surgical care should be guided by such evidence, particularly in resource-constraint settings. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of evidence (Medline, Embase, Global Health, EconLit and grey literature) on the cost-effectiveness of surgery across low-income and middle-income countries published between January 2013 and January 2023. We included studies with minor and major therapeutic surgeries and minimally invasive intraluminal and endovascular interventions. We computed and compared the average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) for different surgical interventions to the respective national gross domestic product per capita to determine cost-effectiveness and to common traditional public health interventions. RESULTS: We identified 87 unique studies out of 20 070 articles screened. Studies spanned 23 countries, with China (n=20), Thailand (n=12), Brazil (n=8) and Iran (n=8) accounting for about 55% of the evidence. Overall, the median ACERs across procedure groups ranged from I$17/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for laparotomies to I$170 186/DALY for bariatric surgeries. Most of the ACER estimates were classified as cost-effective (89%) or very cost-effective (76%). Low-complexity surgical interventions compared favourably to common public health interventions. CONCLUSION: These findings reinforce the growing body of evidence that investments in surgery are economically smart. There remains however paucity of high-quality evidence that would allow decision-makers to assess the comparative cost-effectiveness of surgery and to determine best buys across a wide range of specialties and interventions. A concerted effort is needed to advance the generation and utilisation of economic evidence in the drive towards scale-up of surgical care across low-income and middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | REF fund |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125479 |
| By: | Daniel Liebau |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential future impact of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on the financial services industry and the competencies financial professionals will require in a decade from now, in 2034. Using a survey of 109 experts from industry, academia, and regulatory bodies, the research highlights growing confidence in DeFi's potential to reshape critical areas such as risk management and operations. Over 40% of respondents anticipate high levels of DeFi adoption by 2034, with industry practitioners expressing the greatest optimism. However, the study identifies critical issues that need to be addressed, particularly in the areas of data management & privacy, and security. These concerns, alongside regulatory challenges, underscore the need for financial institutions to prepare carefully. The findings also suggest that strategic competencies, sector-specific domain expertise, and technological skills will become increasingly vital. The insights offered are valuable for regulators, policymakers, and industry professionals, emphasizing the need for continuous upskilling to remain competitive in an evolving financial services landscape. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.14173 |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Justin Yifu Lin |
| Abstract: | World economic governance was largely dominated by major developed countries in the 20th century. Over the last half-century, we have witnessed a global economic transformation. The shift is evident in the changing global shares amongst developed and developing countries across four key economic metrics: total output, trade in goods, manufacturing value added, and foreign direct investment. What we find is that the substantial transformations are not primarily caused by significant changes in the growth performance of developed countries but rather by the rapid catch-up of a few developing countries. Sustainable economic growth is a continuous process of technological innovation, elevating labour productivity, and industrial upgrading. Drawing on insights from the growth and structural transformation patterns observed in both developed and developing countries, achieving sustainable economic growth requires (i) optimising comparative advantage and effective infrastructure, (ii) managing gradual transitions economically and politically, and (iii) optimising the use of digital transformation |
| Keywords: | Economic transformation, international trade, investment, world economy |
| JEL: | F1 O N P |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-26 |
| By: | Hongyong ZHANG (RIETI); Ha Thi Thanh DOAN (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Firms hold inventory to manage input shortages and stockout risks. This is particularly true for firms relying on international supply chains and imported inputs. Using a large-scale quarterly government survey of Japanese manufacturing firms (Q1 2015–Q2 2021), we examine firm-level inventory adjustments to supply chain shocks and focus on firms that sourced inputs globally during the pandemic. We find that before the pandemic, relative to firms that purchase inputs only domestically, importing firms tend to have larger inventories (inventories over sales) in materials, work in process (intermediate goods), and finished goods, even after controlling for firm size. After the pandemic, importers significantly and persistently increased their inventories of intermediate inputs, especially for firms with ex ante higher import intensity and multinational firms that experienced supply chain disruptions in China. These results suggest the possibility of a shift from just-in-time to just-in-case production during the pandemic. We then discuss the role of inventories as a buffer against input shortages and other factors affecting inventory holdings, such as the prefecture-level severity of COVID19 infections, industry-level input and output prices, and firm-level financial constraints and uncertainties regarding the economic and business outlook. |
| Keywords: | global sourcing, imports, inventory, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-30 |