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on South East Asia |
| By: | Nan Zhang; Melissa M. Lee |
| Abstract: | Seminal theories in political science argue that military service is a critical driver of minority integration. However, a major obstacle bedeviling the study of military service is self-selection: individuals who are better integrated may be more likely to join the military in the first place. We address the selection problem by examining the effects of military conscription during the Vietnam War using an instrumental variables approach. Conscription during 1970--72 was decided on the basis of national draft lotteries that assigned draft numbers based on an individual's date of birth. Using the draft lottery instrument, we find no evidence of a causal effect of military service on a range of integration outcomes from the 2000 decennial census. At least for the Vietnam era, the link between service and long-term integration is largely driven by self-selection, which points to important scope conditions for the integrationist view. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-35 |
| By: | Suparee Boonmanunt; Wasinee Jantorn; Varunee Khruapradit; Weerachart Kilenthong |
| Abstract: | This study investigates children’s social preferences and their associated factors using a longitudinal dataset from an ongoing early childhood panel in rural Thailand with rich information on children, family structure, caregivers, and households. We find several factors, from internalizing behavior problems and child order to family structure and household donation decisions, are correlated with children’s social preferences, whereas other variables, such as screen time, socialization activities, and caregivers’ characteristics, are not. |
| Keywords: | Children; Family structure; Lab-in-the-field experiment; Skill formation; Social preferences |
| JEL: | C93 D64 J12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:257 |
| By: | Arpita Khanna (Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore); Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | The Covid pandemic dramatically altered patterns of daily life, particularly through widespread declines in mobility due to lockdowns and social distancing measures. While the economic and epidemiological effects of these restrictions have been widely studied, their broader health implications remain underexplored. This paper investigates the relationship between mobility decline during the Covid pandemic and hypertension outcomes in India. Leveraging district-level variation in mobility from Google Community Mobility Reports and health data from the 2019–2021 Indian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we find that a 1 percentage point reduction in mobility over the 30 days prior to interview is associated with a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of having normal blood pressure. The effect is driven by increases in pre-hypertensive and mildly elevated blood pressure, with no significant changes in more severe hypertension. We examine potential mechanisms—healthcare access, stress (proxied by alcohol use), and reduced physical activity—and find limited explanatory power for the former two. These findings suggest that reduced physical mobility likely played a key role in worsening cardiovascular risk profiles. The results underscore the importance of integrating chronic disease considerations into the design of mobility-restricting public health interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:022911 |
| By: | Christine Ho (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Dahye Kim; Pearlyn Neo; Bussarawan Teerawichitchaina |
| Abstract: | Advance care planning (ACP) is critical for ensuring high-quality, cost-effective end-of-life care and is typically facilitated by spouses and adult children. Yet, the growing number of older adults without children has been overlooked in ACP research. This study employs a mixed-methods approach to examine ACP practices and perceptions among childless adults aged 50+ in Singapore, a rapidly aging society with one of the world's highest childlessness rates. Quantitative analyses draw on nationwide survey data (N = 1, 500), complemented by interviews with childless respondents (N = 26). We examine multiple dimensions of ACP: formal ACP (e.g., living wills, Lasting Power of Attorney), informal ACP (discussions of end-of-life care with others), and two-pronged ACP (both documentation and discussion). Results show that childless adults, especially women, were more likely than parents to engage in ACP practices, often motivated by caregiving histories and a desire to reduce burdens on kin. Childless men were less inclined to plan than childless women, potentially reflecting social selection into childlessness, gendered orientations toward health behaviors, and weaker relational networks. Despite these differences, overall ACP engagement in Singapore remained modest. Qualitative evidence revealed broad, relational interpretations of ACP and highlighted various barriers, including difficulty appointing proxies, misconceptions about costs, and competing caregiving demands. As childlessness in late adulthood rises globally, understanding how individuals without children navigate end-of-life planning becomes increasingly important. Addressing barriers and leveraging social support structures can strengthen more inclusive and person-centered planning and ensure that older adults, regardless of their kin availability, are better prepared for end-of-life care |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:022913 |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Tran, Chau; Hochman.Gal |
| Abstract: | Viet Nam is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 15.8% by 2030 and meeting its net-zero emission target by 2050. The industrial sector, including the power sector, is the primary emitter and its active participation is necessary to achieve the targets. This study uses a stated-preference survey Vietnamese firms to understand their preferences in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The study finds that Vietnamese firms prefer to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through improving energy efficiency, substituting fossil fuels with non-fossil fuels and changing production processes. The ranking of preferences differs across the size, type, ownership and geographical location of firms. Their willingness to reduce emissions is driven by anticipated future regulations, social image, and global trends. They consider the lack of finance to be the main barrier to investing in climate change mitigation measures. The study also finds that if a carbon tax were imposed at 100, 000 local currency (around US$5) per ton of carbon dioxide, over 60% of firms would be willing to invest less than 5% of their annual revenue in greenhouse gas mitigation; only less than 10% of the firms are willing to allocate more than 10% their revenue for greenhouse gas mitigation. The findings also show that larger firms and state-owned firms have a higher willingness to pay for emission mitigation measures. Given the small sample size and static preference approach, the findings should be interpreted as indicative rather than conclusive. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11406 |
| By: | Nattavudh Powdthavee |
| Abstract: | Many universities in middle-income countries lack the peer-review infrastructure to assess research quality directly and instead tie financial rewards to publication in journals classified as Q1 under the SCImago Journal Rank system. By converting continuously varying journal quality into discrete institutional categories, these systems create sharp incentive discontinuities at quartile boundaries. In a preregistered study, we apply a bunching estimator — a method from public finance that detects excess concentration of observations around institutionally salient thresholds — to 149, 402 Scopus-indexed publications from Thailand over 2016–2025, exploiting Thailand's 2019 higher-education reform as a source of temporal variation. We find no significant bunching before 2019 but substantial excess concentration immediately above the Q1 boundary afterwards — a pattern not observed in Singapore, whose publication environment is not organised around explicit quartile-based financial rewards. The post-reform excess mass corresponds to roughly 1, 575 additional publications over 2020–2025, implying an estimated 39 million THB (approximately US$1.1 million) in cumulative institutional expenditure. These findings indicate that discrete quartile-based reward systems redirect research effort towards threshold optimisation rather than research quality, and that replacing binary quartile rewards with continuous percentile-based incentives would better align institutional evaluation with scientific output. |
| Keywords: | Bunching estimation; Publication metrics; Journal quartile thresholds; Higher education reform; Goodhart’s law |
| JEL: | I23 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:256 |
| By: | Savinee Mega; Kanyaphak Ngaosri; Worawan Chandoevwit |
| Abstract: | In Thailand, the Mandatory Retirement Age (MRA) is governed by law; however, private corporations may implement their own specific retirement thresholds. The public sector enforces an MRA of 60, but private companies may set at 55, aligning with the Social Security Retirement Age. Understanding how these varying institutional constraints shape individual labor supply decisions is critical for effective policy planning in an aged society like Thailand. Therefore, this study investigates the factors influencing the Expected Retirement Age (ERA) and Expected Working Hours (EWH) among Thailand’s pre-retirement formal-sector workforce aged 50–60. Using survey data from 1, 573 employees across four regions, the analysis employs interval regression for the ERA model and Ordered Probit and Tobit models for the EWH model. The findings reveal that enforcement of an MRA is a primary determinant of retirement timing: employees subject to an MRA expect to retire significantly earlier and reduce their working hours more sharply as they approach the retirement threshold. Rather than an abrupt exit, the data show a clear pattern of expecting a gradual reduction in work intensity as workers age. Employees in elementary occupations expect to retire later and work longer hours, while those with access to stable pension benefits expect earlier retirement and fewer working hours. The study recommends reforming mandatory retirement regulations to permit voluntary employment extensions and promoting phased retirement schemes that allow a gradual reduction in working hours. |
| Keywords: | Expected retirement age; Expected working hours; Mandatory retirement age; Older workers; Phased retirement; Labor supply; Aging workforce |
| JEL: | J14 J22 J26 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:255 |
| By: | Naoyuki Yoshino (Keio University); Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary (Tokai University Research Institute for Environment and Sustainability); Shigehiro Shinozaki (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | As in many Asian economies, Malaysia’s micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) account for the vast majority of firms and large shares of economic output and employment. Their significant carbon footprint makes them pivotal for achieving carbon neutrality. In bank-dominated financial systems such as Malaysia’s, credit guarantees help facilitate lending to MSMEs. This paper proposes a way to both ease MSME access to finance and incentivize decarbonization and sustainability. It develops a risk-based and sustainability-adjusted credit guarantee pricing framework that integrates an MSME’s financial health, environmental footprint, and the macroeconomic conditions it faces. Using financial data from 2, 000 Malaysian MSMEs, principal component analysis is used to construct a financial health index, followed by K-means clustering to classify firms by risk. A countercyclical pricing model produces a firm‑level credit guarantee fee ranging from 1.08% for the healthiest firms during a recession to 2.58% for the riskiest firms during economic expansion. Firm-level sustainability survey data are used to build a composite performance score which reduces guarantee fees by an average of 0.13 percentage points, with a reduction up to 0.23 percentage points for top-performing firms. |
| Keywords: | optimal credit guarantee;sustainability;access to finance;SME finance;Malaysia |
| JEL: | D22 G20 L20 L50 |
| Date: | 2026–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022917 |
| By: | Weerachart Kilenthong; Sartja Duangchaiyoosook; Wasinee Jantorn; Varunee Khruapradit |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of a weekly parenting home-visiting program based on the Reach Up curriculum and a cash transfer, using a randomized controlled trial in Thailand. The targeted children were preschoolers, with an average age of 36 months at the start of the parenting program. The intent-to-treat effect of the 10-month parenting program is positive and significant, with an effect size of approximately 0.13–0.16 SD, whereas the cash transfer is positive but insignificant. Treatment-on-the-treated effects reveal that each home visit improves child outcomes by 0.004 SD. The parenting program is more beneficial for younger and disadvantaged children, as measured by having special needs, less educated parents, lower household wealth, and fewer books at home, whereas the cash transfer is more effective for younger children, children with special needs, and boys. |
| Keywords: | Parenting; Home visiting; Cash transfers; Early childhood; Parental investment; Disadvantaged children |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:254 |
| By: | Oleynov, Anton |
| Abstract: | Contemporary sustainability debates increasingly recognize that ecological crises cannot be understood solely through assumptions of rational utility maximization and growth-centered development. Drawing on insights from behavioral economics, well-being research, and sustainability studies, the paper develops a broader conception of utility that incorporates emotional, relational, and cultural dimensions of human welfare. It makes three contributions. First, it proposes emotional utility, relational utility, and cultural utility as complementary dimensions of human welfare that help explain why well-being depends upon psychological stability, social relationships, and culturally meaningful forms of life. Second, it introduces the concept of behavioral sustainability, defined as the long-term reproduction of sustainable patterns of behavior through supportive social, emotional, cultural, and institutional conditions. Third, it illustrates the relevance of this framework through the case of Thailand, where concepts such as sabai-sabai, kreng jai, nam jai, and the Sufficiency Economy Philosophy reflect culturally grounded understandings of well-being that go beyond material accumulation. The analysis suggests that sustainability should be evaluated not only according to ecological outcomes and economic performance but also according to its capacity to support trust, belonging, resilience, and enduring quality of life. Sustainable development therefore requires conceptions of welfare that account for what people need to live well, not only what they consume. |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2n43g_v1 |
| By: | Hwee Kwan Chow (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Jordan Lee (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, whereas demand weakness produces only muted downside effects. We also record sharp gains in log predictive scores for one-quarter ahead conditional distributions relative to unconditional ones during the post-pandemic inflation surge. One-year-ahead predictive distributions become markedly right‑skewed ahead of the surge, effectively signalling a heightened probability of extreme inflation outcomes. Overall, incorporating inflation risk measures improves both the in-sample fit and the forecast accuracy of predictive distributions of inflation one and four quarters ahead, offering insights for central banks navigating uncertain global conditions. |
| Keywords: | Inflation-at-risk; survey of professional forecasters; quantile regressions; forecast accuracy |
| JEL: | C21 C53 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:022912 |
| By: | Zhang, Shuangning |
| Abstract: | Mainstream Western economics has long separated politics from economics, constructing an idealized phenomenological model based on “homogeneous individuals, no classes, and no power intervention.” Using this model as a benchmark to judge China’s economic practice has produced the so-called “Ten Major Paradoxes of the Chinese Economy.” However, these paradoxes do not indicate that China’s economy violates economic laws; rather, they are the inevitable result of Western theories detaching themselves from the homologous essence of politics and economics and ignoring the underlying logic of resource allocation in human society. Starting from first principles, this paper traces the original logic of human nature, class, power, and politics, compares the core differences in social structure and governance models between China and the West, and reveals the underlying logic of China’s economic operation. It ultimately demonstrates that all the so-called “Chinese economic paradoxes” can be completely explained within the framework of “political-economic integrated resource allocation.” The confusion in Western economics stems essentially from the limitations of its own theoretical framework, not from any anomaly in the Chinese economy. |
| Keywords: | Political-Economic Integration, Resource Allocation, Chinese Economy, Economic Paradox, Governance Model |
| JEL: | B41 B51 O5 P21 P26 |
| Date: | 2025–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128985 |
| By: | Chowdhry, Sonali; Erhardt, Katharina; Hinz, Julian |
| Abstract: | * China's export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors. Over the past two decades, China has expanded its presence not only in traditional industries but also in capital- and technology-intensive products, bringing it into direct competition with advanced economies in sectors where they have long specialized. * Advanced economies have lost market share to China in third markets. Across a wide range of industries, China's gains in market share have been mirrored by losses among advanced economies. The strongest effects are observed in relatively complex manufacturing sectors such as machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and other technology-intensive products. * The impact of Chinese competition differs substantially across countries. Some advanced economies have adapted more successfully to China's rise than others. While Germany, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom experienced significant losses in third markets, countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and the United States have maintained or even improved their position relative to other non-Chinese exporters even as they lose market shares in absolute terms to China's growth. * China's export expansion alone cannot explain all observed losses. For many advanced economies, actual market share declines exceed what would be expected from China's export growth alone. This suggests that part of the deterioration reflects a loss of competitiveness relative to other exporters rather than displacement by China alone. * Germany stands out as particularly exposed. Germany's export structure overlaps strongly with China's and it experienced some of the largest absolute losses in third markets. However, only around one-third of Germany's market share decline can be mechanically attributed to China's expansion, indicating that domestic and European competitiveness challenges also play an important role. |
| Keywords: | China, export competition, third markets, China, Exportwettbewerb, Drittmärkte |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:341641 |
| By: | Hajime TADOKORO; Yuji HONJO |
| Abstract: | This study explores why Japan has produced relatively few unicorns compared with other advanced and emerging economies, despite strong entrepreneurial potential and abundant savings. It argues that the underdevelopment of Japan’s private equity markets constitutes a key structural bottleneck. We examine institutional causes and policy directions aimed at strengthening private equity markets and supporting high-growth firms. Drawing on experiences from the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, China, and the Republic of Korea, we conduct a comparative institutional analysis of core mechanisms for market-based equity financing: small public offerings, equity crowdfunding (ECF), and private placements, as well as secondary trading. Our analysis identifies structural regulatory constraints that raise entry barriers for issuers and limit investor participation in Japan. Based on these findings, we identify institutional issues that are currently lacking, including simplified disclosure frameworks, higher and tiered thresholds for small public offerings, flexible regimes for ECF, modernized rules for private placements and secondary trading, and the expansion of the scope of qualified investors, as well as digitized capital-raising processes. These measures would lower entry barriers, broaden investment opportunities, and improve risk capital allocation, while maintaining market-based investor protection. By fostering vibrant private equity markets, Japan can mobilize idle capital, stimulate entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness, thereby supporting innovation-driven economic growth and increasing the likelihood of more unicorns emerging. This study underscores the central role of institutional design in shaping entrepreneurial finance and offers policy-relevant insights for economies seeking to transition toward innovation-driven growth supported by vibrant private equity markets. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26051 |
| By: | Taiyo FUKAI; Hiromi HARA |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence that firms act as important intermediaries in the implementation of social policy. In 2005, Japan introduced a policy requiring large firms to develop action plans to establish or expand their company-specific childcare programs. Using pooled repeated cross-sectional survey data with retrospective fertility and employment histories and a Difference-in-Differences (DD) framework, we estimate the policy's impact on working mothers. The results show significant increases in the uptake of maternity and parental leave and improvements in post-birth employment outcomes, with mothers more likely to remain employed and to return as regular employees after the birth of their first child. However, we do not find robust evidence that the policy affected higher-order fertility. These results highlight the importance of firms as institutional channels for implementing family-friendly policies, while also suggesting that workplace-based measures alone may be insufficient to influence fertility behavior and address Japan’s broader demographic challenges. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26050 |
| By: | Jiani Gao; Min Sun Park; Solomon Polachek |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of exemptions to China's 1979 One-Child Policy on fertility and the spousal age gap. The exemptions, implemented at different times across provinces, created exogenous variation that we exploit using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design. Our analysis uses the 2010 China Family Panel Studies and focuses on couples with rural hukou status, who were most affected by these exemptions during the study period. We find that the exemptions led to a 32% increase in fertility, consistent with the policy's pro-natalist intent. We also observe a 25% increase in the spousal age gap, likely driven by the increased demand for fertility following the policy change. These effects run counter to the broad international trend over this period, in which fertility rates have generally declined and spousal age gaps have narrowed. We additionally find suggestive evidence that the exemptions are associated with a more traditional household division of labor, with possible implications for the gender wage gap. |
| Keywords: | China, One-Child Policy exemptions, Fertility, Spousal age gap, Household division of labor |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 O53 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26165 |
| By: | Raih, Yoan; Luo, Guiliu |
| Abstract: | As China seeks to internationalize the renminbi and EMDEs search for alternative sources of financing, Panda bonds have emerged as a growing funding option. This paper argues that while RMB borrowing can offer advantages over hard-currency debt, headline yields often understate the true cost once credit enhancement and currency risks are considered. Panda bonds have significant potential, but scaling the market will require further regulatory reforms, risk-sharing mechanisms, and stronger participation from multilateral and Chinese policy institutions. |
| Keywords: | Panda bonds; Renminbi (RMB) internationalization; Sovereign debt; Emerging and developing economies (EMDEs); External financing; Currency risk; Chinese bond market; Guarantees |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2606 |
| By: | Dina Maskileyson; Piotr Paradowski |
| Abstract: | Self-rated health is closely tied to economic position, yet most research measures position as a level — the income or wealth a household holds — and leaves open the question of whether the household can absorb an economic shock without serious disruption. We distinguish economic vulnerability, the absence of liquid financial buffers, from the level of resources, and ask whether it is associated with poorer self-rated health independently of resource levels, whether the association differs by gender, and whether it operates through psychosocial distress. Using harmonized Japanese panel data on adults observed between 2009 and 2021, we find that what is associated with worse self-rated health is not low income per se but the absence of a buffer: households that are asset-poor despite adequate income fare worse than the income-poor who retain savings, and the doubly poor fare worst. The association is substantially stronger for women — roughly 1.6 times the male estimate for the doubly poor — and is present even in a universal-coverage setting where economic position might be expected to matter least. Economic vulnerability is itself associated with markedly greater anxiety about the future in both sexes; under a decomposition whose assumptions we state explicitly, measured distress accounts for at least as much of the gradient as health behaviours, though much remains unexplained. Causal direction is beyond what an observational panel can establish, but the evidence is consistent with a stress mechanism operating partly through anticipatory anxiety. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:53 |