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on South East Asia |
| By: | Zou, Tao; Gong, Yundan |
| Abstract: | We study how third-country supply chains reconfigure under the 2018-2019 US tariff escalation on Chinese goods, using comprehensive transaction-level trade and domestic business-to-business records for firms in Vietnam. Exploiting exogenous variation in firm-level tariff exposure constructed from pre-treatment export portfolios, we find that both value-added processing and transshipment contribute to triangular trade through Vietnam, but activate on distinct timelines: transshipment responds immediately while processing activates mainly after the May 2019 escalation signals tariff permanence. Supply chain network adjustment precedes trade value expansion, with upstream Chinese supplier diversification beginning first, local intermediate sourcing activating later, and downstream US buyer adjusting last. Opening the third-country supply chain interior, we show that over half of the tariff-induced local sourcing expansion channels Chinese intermediate content, and that local sourcing from China-embedded local suppliers responds at 3.2 times the magnitude of independent local suppliers. These results indicate that global value chains relocation to Vietnam activated processing capacity but extended rather than displaced Chinese supply chain influence in the third country. |
| Keywords: | Trade war, Supply chain reconfiguration, Local sourcing, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 L14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:342501 |
| By: | Delesalle, Esther; Mayneris, Florian; Parienté, William; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague |
| Abstract: | The creation of stable and high-paying jobs by private firms is a first-order issue for Low-and-Medium Income Countries (LMICs). Little is known as to whether trade liberalization helps achieve this goal. In this study, we investigate the impact of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), signed in 2002, on the probability of being a wage-worker in Indonesia, a proxy for better-paid jobs in the Indonesian context. We find no evidence that import and export tariff reductions increased the probability of being a wage-worker, except for those that have more than primary education (less than a quarter of the working-age population). Consistent with this absence of effect at the worker level, we also find no significant changes in employment or value added in large and medium-sized manufacturing firms, which are the main providers of salaried jobs. Our results call for cautious optimism regarding the potential gains in terms of job quality from further trade liberalization in LMICs, particularly in a global environment where tariffs are already low. |
| Keywords: | Trade liberalization; Informality; Manufacturing |
| JEL: | F14 F16 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19899 |
| By: | Yusuf, Alia; Utamawati, Herlina |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s downstream integration into global nickel supply chains has had significant economic benefits, strengthening the country’s position in the global energy transition and increasing the Government’s fiscal revenues. At the same time, nickel-producing regions face heightened exposure to climate-related and environmental risks, including flooding, ecosystem degradation and pollution. These dynamics make growing demands of subnational governments, which play a central role in disaster response and climate adaptation. Best practices from other commodity-driven economies offer some useful policy lessons for Indonesia, ranging from stakeholder coordination platforms to revenue stabilisation funds. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140368 |
| By: | Rashidghalam, Masoomeh (University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran); Heshmati-Kim, Jieun (Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea); Heshmati, Almas (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Abstract: | AI is becoming a driving force in Vietnam’s economic transformation. The country is moving beyond a growth model based on low-cost labour and export-led industries. Adoptions of the widespread generative AI and AI-powered assistants have accelerated the transformation. AI, by reshaping the nature and future of work, redefines the rules and productivity. This research overviews the recent research investigating how AI is transforming work, demand for digital skills, and productivity gains in AI-adopting Vietnamese industries. An optimal blend of AI and human collaboration positively impacts its productivity. Application of AI enables the use of its potential, but it also has significant challenges and risks of skill gaps, training costs, trust, job quality, and distribution of its effects. Focusing on adaptability, lifelong learning, and integration of AI ensures a positive future of work. This study identifies factors determining the adoption of AI and heterogeneity in its productivity and future of work impacts. |
| Keywords: | AI application, nature of work, future of work, economic transformation, skill requirements, AI productivity impacts, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D24 E24 F63 J24 L52 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18825 |
| By: | Arias, Omar (World Bank); Cesar, Andres (CEDLAS-UNLP); Fukuzawa, Daisuke (World Bank); Le, Duong (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine the labor market effects of industrial robot adoption in Viet Nam. Using differences between districts in their initial industrial structure and exposure to global robotization trends, we find that robot adoption between 2014 and 2020 increased employment, wages, and the inflow of skilled workers. More exposed districts also experienced faster growth in value added, labor productivity, and trade flows. Employment and wage gains were concentrated among middle and high-skilled workers, while low-skilled workers were driven into informal employment or out-migration. We also find positive spillovers to neighboring districts, consistent with production linkages and higher demand for non-tradable goods. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Robots, Local Labor Markets, Wages, Informality, Migration, Export-led Growth, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 O12 O14 O17 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18845 |
| By: | Fisher, Ian |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how uncertainty arising from land tenure insecurity shapes household income diversification strategies in rural Vietnam. Although a substantial body of literature examines the effects of insecure property rights on agricultural productivity and food security, relatively little attention has been given to its influence on income-based livelihood diversification. This study addresses that gap by analyzing Vietnam’s 2013 Land Law, which extended household agricultural land use rights by an additional 50 years. Using nationally representative household panel data, the analysis leverages variation in exposure to land tenure insecurity generated by the reform across households cultivating different crops. Event study regressions are used to assess how households adjust their livelihood strategies in response to land tenure uncertainty, as well as how these responses differ across household characteristics. The results indicate some evidence of income diversification prior to the reform that is mainly driven by an increased share of household labor allocated to off-farm wage labor, though the estimated effects are generally modest in magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that factors such as household distance to nearest road, member size, and farm size influence the the degree of adaptation to land tenure insecurity. Overall, the findings suggest that households respond to tenure-related uncertainty primarily by diversifying into off-farm income sources, rather than solely through on-farm intensification. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404659 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Ei Win, Hnin |
| Abstract: | Access to timely credit is widely viewed as an important determinant of improved agricultural investment and productivity. However, little is known about how agricultural credit markets function during prolonged conflict. This paper examines how conflict shapes both the receipt of agricultural credit and the provision of informal credit by agrifood businesses in Myanmar, where conflict has been widespread in after 2021. Using rare data from both farmers and firms, we document a substantial decline in formal credit after conflict, but stable receipt of informal credit. In conflict-affected areas, formal credit receipt declined sharply – most notably from government-supported schemes and from microfinance institutions – while informal credit was more resilient – especially from friends and family and agribusinesses. Using direct elicitation methods of credit constraint classifications, we show that farmers in high conflict areas are more likely to voluntarily withdraw from credit markets and shift to self-financing. On the supply side, conflict has insignificant relationships to farm-credit provision by input retailers and rice mills. Taken together, our findings highlight the informal segment of agricultural credit markets as an underappreciated source of resilience in conflict-affected settings. |
| Keywords: | credit; conflicts; agricultural credit; access to finance; investment; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183542 |
| By: | Mary E. Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Christine Y. Wan (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using Asian Development Bank multiregional input-output tables for 2007-24, this Policy Brief traces Chinese value added throughout the US import basket. It argues that genuine US economic security requires a more disciplined strategy--identifying actual chokepoints, building competitive alternative suppliers and the infrastructure connecting them to markets, and cooperating with allies rather than forcing them into separate supply chains. The appendix explains the method and databases that the authors used in their analysis. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-12 |
| By: | Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Nia, Reza; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | India’s rice policies have played a crucial role in shaping the country’s agricultural sector and ensuring food security for its vast and diverse population. Since rice is a staple food for millions, policies governing its production, pricing, and distribution are vital to maintaining sufficient supplies, stabilizing prices, and making rice affordable and accessible to everyone. However, as dietary patterns change and there is increasing concern about nutrition and environmental sustainability, it is important to consider whether shifting existing rice support toward more targeted or diversified strategies could better promote food security and healthier diets in India. This paper explores this question by evaluating, in advance, the effects of different ways of allocating current support using model-based scenario analysis. The study shows that eliminating all current support would do little to improve the affordability of rice and other foods or to make production more sustainable in India. In contrast, redirecting just a portion of input subsidies—the main type of domestic agricultural support—toward increased investment in research and development for productivity-boosting and climate-resilient technologies could drive meaningful change. This shift could promote more sustainable agricultural practices, lower food prices and the cost of a healthy diet and, ultimately, enhance food security and nutrition across the country. |
| Keywords: | healthy diets; rice; production; sustainable agriculture; sustainable production; price stabilization; India; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183826 |
| By: | de Zwarte, Ingrid; Moret, Helmi; de Zwart, Pim |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics between hunger and warfare during the Indonesian War of Independence (1945-49). We compiled a dataset comprising over 8, 000 prices for staple foods (rice, maize, cassava) covering the entire Indonesian archipelago from 1939-49, allowing us to estimate the effects of the main Dutch military campaigns on food prices. We then use a second dataset on wartime wages to estimate nutritional standards. Our study shows that the war’s impact on food prices was significantly greater than previously assumed, both in and outside Java. We argue that Operation Product was partly motivated by high rice prices, and we demonstrate that these were significantly reduced across Java and Sumatra after the end of the military campaign. Our findings further suggest that local food crises, and possibly famine conditions, occurred across different parts of the archipelago, strongly supporting the notion that food and hunger were central issues during the Independence War. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19797 |
| By: | van Asselt, Joanna; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines household welfare among women-adult-only households and households with a disabled/chronically ill member using Myanmar Household Welfare Surveys from April 2022 to July 2025. It analyzes their demographic characteristics, income composition, and levels of asset and income poverty. The paper’s main contribution is assessing key food security indicators for these vulnerable households, including Minimum Dietary Diversity, the Food Consumption Score, and the Household Hunger Score. Women-adult-only households, defined as households without any male members aged 15 or older, account for 9 percent of households nationally, or 13 percent when including households with elderly male dependents. Fourteen percent of households have a disabled or chronically ill member, and 10 percent have a disabled or chronically ill adult. Women-adult-only and disability-affected households have higher asset poverty rates than the national average. Women-adult-only households have similar income poverty levels compared with the national average, while 71 percent of households with a disabled/chronically ill member are income poor, compared to 63 percent nationally. Remittance receipt among women-adult-only households decreases income poverty for the group; more women-adult-only households receive remittances (33 percent) and rely on remittances (24 percent) as their main income source. Women-adult-only and disability-affected households perform worse across all dietary indicators. Women-adult-only households show, on average, 4 percentage points higher prevalence of low food consumption across survey rounds, while households with a disabled/chronically ill adult have a 3percentage-point higher prevalence. Moderate or severe hunger is also higher among women-adultonly households (6 percent) and households with a disabled/chronically ill adult (7 percent), compared with the national average of 4 percent. Households with a disabled/chronically ill adult are significantly more likely to rely on negative food-related coping strategies—including borrowing food, reducing meals, and skipping meals— highlighting their heightened vulnerability relative to other households. Regression results highlight that women-adult-only households face elevated hunger because of their structural economic disadvantages —fewer different income sources, weaker land ownership, and lower asset holdings — rather than the absence of adult men per se. Low food consumption, however, remains significantly lower for women-adult-only households even after fully controlling for these structural factors. This likely reflects the severe time constraints of households where all productive, care, and domestic tasks fall on adult women alone. For households with a disabled or chronically ill adult hunger persists across all specifications regardless of income, land, or asset controls — pointing to a direct burden that structural economic characteristics cannot explain. These contrasting findings suggest different interventions: structural economic interventions around land and livelihoods for women-adult-only households, and direct consumption support and social protection transfers for households affected by disability. |
| Keywords: | gender; disabilities; welfare; disability inclusion; social inclusion; financial inclusion; food security; family structure; persons with disabilities; women; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:183378 |
| By: | Ma, Debin |
| Abstract: | Lu Xun (1881-1936), regarded as the single most important and influential writer of modern China and East Asia, is surprisingly little-known in the West. His stories and personalities - now household names and symbols - had touched the nerves of a once profound nation caught in the depth of an identity crisis faced with decline and collapse. Through an analysis of “The Diary of a Madman†, “Medicine†and the characters of Ah-Q, Kong Yiji and Runtu in his collection of stories “Scream†, this paper unveils Lu Xun’s penetrating insights on the complexity and nuance of culture as both determinants and impediments to social and economic transformation at historical crossroads. I show that theoretical framework of political economy and economics of identity are of particular relevance in understanding Lu Xun’s penetrating and satirical critique on the paradoxical aspect of how the Chinese elites and masses both exploit and are exploited by traditional Chinese ideology. This paper concludes that Lu Xun - as a writer and a concept – remains highly relevant for understanding China’s past, present and future. |
| JEL: | N0 B30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19577 |
| By: | Yuvika Chaudhury; Aritri Chakravarty (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.) |
| Abstract: | Access to formal credit plays a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity and mitigating risks in rural India. Despite sustained policy interventions, a significant share of agricultural households continues to rely on informal credit sources, often under unfavorable terms. This study investigates the determinants of formal credit access in Indian agriculture using unit-level data from the 77th Round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) on the Situation Assessment of Agricultural Households, covering the 2018–19 agricultural year and comprising around 58, 000 rural households. The analysis addresses three core dimensions: (i) household-level determinants of the percentage share of formal loans, (ii) factors influencing the likelihood of obtaining a loan for agricultural purposes, and (iii) the elasticity of credit demand with respect to interest rates. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), logistic regression, and log-log models are employed to analyze the demand side factors influencing the above dimensions. OLS results indicate that institutional linkages such as access to Kisan Credit Cards (KCC), crop insurance, and membership in farmer organizations substantially increase the share of formal loans. Higher consumption expenditure and larger landholdings are also positively associated. The logistic regression model reveals that households engaged in crop production are significantly more likely to access agricultural loans, especially when supported by KCC and insurance coverage. The log-log model shows credit demand to be inelastic with respect to interest rates, reflecting structural constraints. These findings underscore the critical role of institutional inclusion and economic capacity in enabling formal credit access, while highlighting the persistent limitations in expanding credit demand in rural IndiaLength: 52 pages |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Access to Credit, Farm Households, Interest SensitivityClassification-JEL: Q1, Q12, Q14 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-307 |
| By: | Chen, Kevin Z.; Huang, Yuanmao; Yan, Zhen |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the historical performance, evolutionary trends, and future opportunities and challenges of China’s agrifood system (AFS) from 2012 to 2023. By constructing multi-year social accounting matrices (SAMs), the study quantifies the economic scale and structural characteristics of the AFS, as well as its historical contribution to broader economic transformation and growth. Utilizing the China Agrifood System Model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of productivity enhancements across different value chains in promoting multidimensional development goals, such as GDP growth, job creation, and poverty eradication. The findings indicate that the transformation of the AFS is a core component of China’s economic transformation. Although the AFS’s share of the national economy has declined during industrialization, its contribution to inclusive economic transformation remains substantial. This continued importance is closely linked to profound structural shifts within the sector, as value creation has increasingly moved from primary production toward downstream segments such as processing, trade, and food services. General equilibrium simulations indicate that some agricultural sectors, including maize, vegetables, and fisheries, generate strong multiplier effects on non-agricultural employment, helping to absorb labor and alleviate transition pressures. The study concludes that continuously optimizing the internal structure of the AFS and strengthening integrated value chain synergies are critical pathways for addressing future resource and environmental constraints while achieving sustainable and inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | food systems; agrifood systems; economic growth; economic development; inclusive growth; sustainable development; large language models; development economics; China; Asia; Eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183570 |
| By: | Fernández-Kranz, Daniel (IE University); Trinh, Trong-Anh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | India reached below-replacement fertility (TFR = 2.0) despite low income, persistent traditional gender norms, and declining female labour force participation. We study how the expansion of a decentralized, fee-based education market reshaped fertility decisions by increasing households’ exposure to the cost of child quality. Because sons are more likely than daughters to be enrolled in private schools, this cost channel interacts with son preference to generate gender-differentiated fertility stopping behavior. We test predicitons from a dynamic model of parity progression using survey data from NFHS (2015–21) merged with administrative district-level UDISE data on 37, 251 women in 525 districts at the parity-2-to-3 margin. We find that households with only daughters are less responsive to local private-school prevalence than otherwise similar households with sons. This result is stable across subsamples, the exclusion of recent migrants, controls for modernization proxies, and controls for differential baseline-fertility trends. At the district level, private-school expansion is associated with lower parity progression, but this effect is sensitive to district-level confounding. |
| Keywords: | fertility, private schooling, household decision-making, developing economies |
| JEL: | J13 I25 O15 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18771 |
| By: | Hong, Sehyun; Mo, Zhexun; Yang, Jiwei |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs the first long-run estimates of top wealth concentration in South Korea from 1970 to 2021, using newly assembled estate tax tabulations and applying a simplified mortality multiplier method. The series uncovers a pattern that diverges sharply from the gradual postwar increase in wealth inequality seen in many Western economies. Korea experienced two distinct regimes: a two-decade period of low and stable concentration from 1970 to 1990, when the top 0.1 percent held a roughly stable 3 to 5 percent of wealth, followed by a substantial rise beginning in the late 1990s to a new, higher plateau of around 10 percent. This abrupt “Great Unleveling, ” plausibly linked to institutional and market changes surrounding the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, coincided with a shift in elite portfolios from land-based to financial assets. Independent property-tax records show that land concentration stayed flat across this break, indicating that the rise originated in financial rather than landed wealth. In international perspective, Korea moves from a low-inequality profile typical of developing economies to a moderately high-inequality regime similar to contemporary France and Japan. The findings highlight how sudden institutional breaks, rather than gradual trends alone, shape the long-run distribution of wealth. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2026–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n9ta8_v1 |
| By: | Minocha, Sumedha |
| Abstract: | The first 1000 days of life is a well-known critical period in which nutrition is paramount. Yet, many women remain undernourished during this period, despite rising standards of living globally. Food transfer programs play a critical role in bridging this gap, but there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of many of these programs, limiting evidence-based policymaking in this sphere. This paper examined a natural experiment comparing two large-scale interventions delivered through village-based community centers: (i) nutritious rations offered as ready-to-cook food packets once every two months (ii) the same rations program bundled with daily nutritious cooked meals. I used quasi-experimental methods to construct comparable village- pairs and collected primary data from ~ 930 pregnant women in rural Maharashtra in India. Relative to women who were offered rations only, those offered the bundled program experienced significant increases in daily nutrient intake, an additional 264 calories and 8 grams of energy and protein, leaving the protein-energy ratio unchanged. As compared to women’s first trimester weight that were offered rations only, the bundled program led to additional weight gain of 2.03 kg in third trimester. Also, there are no spillover effects on the overall nutrient intake of women’s existing children under age six, but there is a shift in the composition. Overall, these findings demonstrate that integrating daily cooked meals into existing ration programs can substantially improve maternal dietary intake and gestational weight, while generating benign intra-household spillovers on children. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404578 |
| By: | Mehrotra, Santosh (Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | China and India embarked on planned development at roughly the same time and had comparable per capita incomes about four decades ago. Yet they have since diverged sharply in economic growth, human development and inequality. This paper examines the sources of that divergence. It first analyses the contrasting trajectories of agricultural growth. Following agrarian reforms after 1980, China sustained much faster agricultural growth, strengthening rural incomes and domestic demand. India's agrarian transformation remained incomplete, with lasting consequences for growth and structural change. The paper then argues that deeper institutional differences explain the widening gap. It examines divergences in governance, state capability and administrative capacity, investment in education, and growth strategies, particularly the extent to which growth generated productive employment. These factors shaped both the pace and inclusiveness of development. The paper concludes by showing how differences in agricultural transformation, state capability, human capital formation and employment-intensive growth contributed to the contrasting trajectories of inequality in the two countries. |
| Keywords: | China, India, state capability, structural transformation, human development, inequality |
| JEL: | O11 O15 O53 H11 D63 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18779 |