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on South East Asia |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A.; Salazar, Alliah Mae C. |
| Abstract: | The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint 2025, aimed at fostering deeper regional integration, competitiveness, and economic resilience, has recently been adopted. This paper provides an updated assessment of the AEC and the Philippines' progress over the last five years, considering recent developments such as the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), advancements in the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), and evolving trade and investment patterns. Using the latest data, the study benchmarks the Philippines against its ASEAN counterparts, analyzing performance in trade, investment, financial integration, innovation, digital economy, connectivity, and sustainability. In addition, the paper explores the impacts of global economic disruptions, supply chain realignments, and emerging sustainability initiatives on the country’s integration into the regional economy. It identifies key challenges, including disparities in economic readiness, regulatory bottlenecks, and gaps in digital transformation, while also outlining strategic policy recommendations to enhance the Philippines’ role in ASEAN’s economic landscape. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | AEC, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, DEFA, digital economy, economic integration, ESG, FDI, financial integration, innovation and technology, MSME, RCEP, supply chain, sustainable development, tariff and non-tariff measures, trade in services agreement, value chains |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-51 |
| By: | Rodriguez, Marianne J.; Rivera, John Paolo R.; Bernardo, Ivan Cenon V.; Miral, Ramona Maria L.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C. |
| Abstract: | In the Philippines, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented contraction in gross domestic product—the largest decline among Southeast Asian nations. Beginning in March 2020, the government implemented a series of strict lockdowns to mitigate the spread of the virus. However, these measures led to prolonged disruptions in economic activity, causing declines in revenues, establishment closures, and mass layoffs at the corporate level. An analysis of the impact of the pandemic on corporate performance and employment was conducted using a unique dataset for the Philippines that combines firm-level financial data, establishment-level employment data, and business restrictions data defined for each industry-province-year combination. A panel of around 2, 500 firms and 3, 900 establishments covering the period from 2018 to 2022 was constructed. Using firm fixed-effects regression, it was found that mandatory business closures had a significant negative impact on corporate revenues, with a full-year closure resulting in a 65.0-percent reduction in annual revenues, or a 5.4-percent reduction for each month of closure. For liquidity-constrained firms, the decline is even larger, suggesting that the lack of liquidity impairs a firm's ability to cope with the crisis and endure business closures. While revenues began to recover in 2022, lingering adverse effects on profitability and employment remain. Finally, it was found that the pandemic had a limited negative impact on firms' financial positions. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | corporate financial performance, corporate vulnerability, COVID-19, operational restriction, panel data |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-65 |
| By: | Agbon, Adrian D. |
| Abstract: | As economies grow, environmental concerns also become more pronounced, particularly regarding water supply, water quality, and the degradation of aquatic environments. The link between surface and groundwater is becoming increasingly relevant, as contaminated aquifers that discharge into streams can lead to the contamination of surface water. This paper examines the current state and future challenges of potable water provision in the Philippines by focusing on three interlinked areas: groundwater resources, surface-water sources, and the institutional role of water districts. In recent years, there has been an increase in studies on this issue due to widespread concerns about water supply and the contamination of groundwater and surface water (lakes, streams, rivers, etc.) by toxic substances. This paper characterizes the groundwater and surface water in selected areas of the Philippines. Basic data from 53 water districts in the Philippines are analyzed to estimate demand and supply, water coverage, and to review some of the water districts' tariffs. A set of policy and operational measures is recommended: integrated source planning across jurisdictions, strengthened groundwater monitoring and licensing, targeted investment in treatment and distribution upgrades, capacity building for water district technical staff, and blended finance mechanisms to scale resilience projects. Implementing these measures can improve water quality, reliability, and equity of access while safeguarding groundwater and surface sources for future generations. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | water security, groundwater, surface water, water districts, Philippine water quality, governance, climate resilience, potable water |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-50 |
| By: | Navarro, Adoracion M.; Jacinto, Janina Sofia H. |
| Abstract: | This study examines ideology-driven armed conflicts in the Philippines and analyzes the peacebuilding elements that have contributed to durable peace across conflict-affected regions. Focusing on separatist movements in Mindanao and communist insurgencies in various areas nationwide, the study traces the historical roots of conflict, including grievances related to self-determination, land dispossession, political exclusion, and socioeconomic inequality. It then develops an analytical framework for peacebuilding that synthesizes international peace literature with Philippine experiences and institutions. Using qualitative methods, including key informant interviews with government agencies and an extensive desktop review of peace agreements, government policies, and program implementation reports, the study analyzes six core elements of peacebuilding in the Philippine context: confidence-building measures, peace agreements or preparatory instruments, socioeconomic development programs, permanent cessation of hostilities, political and legal settlements, and transitional justice and reconciliation. The analysis applies concepts from incentive compatibility and credible commitment to assess how these elements influence the strategic choices of armed groups, government actors, and communities. Findings show that peacebuilding initiatives are most effective when economic, political, and security incentives are aligned and when state commitments are perceived as credible and sustained over time. Socioeconomic interventions and immediate assistance help reduce the opportunity cost of returning to violence, while inclusive political and legal mechanisms address long-standing grievances. However, uneven implementation, delayed delivery of benefits, and gaps in institutional coordination continue to pose risks to sustaining peace. The study concludes with policy-relevant lessons and recommendations aimed at strengthening the design and implementation of peacebuilding interventions to support long-term stability and reconciliation in the Philippines. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | peacebuilding, armed conflicts, Mindanao separatism, communist insurgency, incentives and credible commitment, socioeconomic reintegration, peace agreements, cessation of hostilities, political amnesty, transitional justice and reconciliation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-64 |
| By: | Hesham Mohamed Hagag, Sarah Reem D.; Rodriguez, Henrietta Marie M.; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. |
| Abstract: | This report estimated the utilization of outpatient benefits from the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation and examined variations across local governments. Utilization patterns were analyzed based on key socio-demographic and economic characteristics to better understand healthcare inequalities. The findings reveal several key insights. First, outpatient utilization rates exhibit significant geographic variation, with disparities reaching up to fivefold, indicating persistent inequities in access to care. Second, about 70 percent of outpatient claims are attributed to kidney-related conditions, largely driven by the rapid expansion of hemodialysis benefits in recent years. Third, regarding Konsulta, the comprehensive primary care benefit package under the UHC Law has registered participation from only about a quarter of the population, with fewer than 2 percent profiled through a First Patient Encounter. These results highlight critical inefficiencies and inequities in the delivery of outpatient services and the need for policy reforms to strengthen outpatient and primary healthcare to improve overall health system performance. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | PhilHealth, outpatient care, HEFP |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-62 |
| By: | Perez, Tania Dew S.; Abrigo, Michael R.M. |
| Abstract: | Female fertility patterns and their drivers have been extensively studied worldwide, often to the exclusion of male fertility patterns, particularly in developing country contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining male fertility patterns in the Philippines. Using own-children estimates derived from three decades of National Demographic and Health Surveys, a modest mismatch in the reproductive age windows of males and females is documented, showing that male total fertility rates exceed those of females. Treating fertility as a joint spousal outcome, the contribution of spousal heterogamy in three dimensions: age, educational attainment, and fertility preference, to observed fertility outcomes is quantified. It is found that converging fertility outcomes coincide with observed homogamous matching. However, fertility gaps persist across wealth quintiles, indicating systemic barriers that inhibit partners from achieving their fertility goals. By incorporating men into the analysis of fertility behavior, the missing half of the fertility picture in a changing demographic landscape is provided. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Fertility rates, institutions, Family planning, gender dynamics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-47 |
| By: | Francisco, Kris A.; Librero, Kimberly R. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines demonstrates a puzzling disconnect between economic growth and distributional outcomes, as decades of expansion have failed to deliver significant changes in poverty and income inequality. A frequently discussed strategy for inclusive growth is strategic investment in infrastructure, particularly in lagging regions. To augment the limited literature on this topic, this study examines whether transport infrastructure investment can reduce income inequality by exploiting the staggered implementation of the nautical highways included in the Roll-on/Roll-off (RoRo) Terminal System that started in 2003. The staggered adoption design allows for the examination of dynamic treatment effects and determination of whether impacts vary with exposure duration and distance from infrastructure. Using a difference-in-differences approach, this study assesses how infrastructure affects local income and inequalities by comparing outcomes between port municipalities that joined the RoRo network and those that remained conventional ports over the period from 2000 to 2020. Within-municipality inequality is examined through Gini coefficients calculated from asset indices using Census data. The analysis further extends to neighboring municipalities to capture possible externalities. Overall, the findings provide critical empirical evidence on infrastructure’s distributional effects in developing and archipelagic economies. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, transport infrastructure, Roll-on/Roll-off, archipelagic economy, impact evaluation, Philippines, Ro-ro |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-58 |
| By: | Cabalfin, Deanne Lorraine D.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Mahmoud, Mohammad A. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines aspires to become a predominantly middle-class society by 2040. Significant strides have been made in reducing extreme poverty. However, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of recent gains and the vulnerability of many households to economic shocks. This study examines the dynamics and characteristics of the middle-income class and analyzes household vulnerability to income poverty using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey and Labor Force Survey data from 2018, 2021, and 2023, employing the methodology developed by Chaudhuri and Datt (2001). Traditional poverty measures underestimate the at-risk population. Vulnerability affects 30.0 percent of Filipino households, 2.75 times higher than the household poverty incidence of 10.9 percent in 2023. Households face vulnerability for distinctly different reasons. Eighty-six percent of vulnerable families experience income volatility, while seventy-three percent of the highly vulnerable have persistently low incomes. Stark rural-urban disparities persist, with rural vulnerability incidence at 43.0 percent compared to 20.0 percent in urban areas. Regional variations in vulnerability range from 9.0 percent in the National Capital Region to 76.0 percent in rural Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. These findings have significant implications for the motivation and design of social protection systems in the country. Social protection must evolve from reactive poverty relief to a broader, proactive focus on resilience building. Differentiated interventions must be based on the needs of specific segments: insurance and income stabilization mechanisms for the vulnerable majority who experience income volatility, and poverty reduction programs targeted at the low-income vulnerable. Infrastructure development, education, sectoral transition from agriculture to the more productive sectors of services, industry, and manufacturing, as well as climate risk management emerge as critical protective factors. Achieving the 2040 vision requires bold policy reforms that expand social protection to universal coverage aligned with upper middle-income country standards, strengthen household resilience, and address the structural factors that perpetuate vulnerability across sectors. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | poverty reduction, poverty alleviation, social protection, middle-income class, middle class, inclusive growth, vulnerability to poverty, poverty, Philippines |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2026-01 |
| By: | Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Miral, Ramona Maria L.; Rivera, John Paolo R. |
| Abstract: | The transmission of election shocks in the Philippine economy was evaluated using an augmented macroeconometric model that incorporates political business cycle (PBC) dynamics into the country’s macroeconomic framework. Building upon the model developed by Debuque-Gonzales and Corpus (2023, 2024), quarterly data from 2002 to 2023 was utilized to simulate the effects of election-induced fiscal and private sector behavior on key macroeconomic variables, namely private consumption, employment, investment, and government consumption. Results reveal that election years generate short-term, demand-driven expansions, fueled by increased government spending, campaign activities, and temporary job creation. However, these effects are transitory, with economic activity reverting to near baseline levels post-election as fiscal impulses fade. Findings align with established literature on political budget cycles, confirming that election-driven growth is cyclical rather than structural and may induce inefficiencies in expenditure allocation and fiscal discipline. The study highlights the need for institutional reforms, fiscal transparency, and counter-cyclical policies to mitigate volatility and promote long-term stability. Finally, limitations related to model stability, pandemic disruptions, and evolving post-COVID economic structures suggest avenues for recalibrating and refining the macroeconometric model for future applications. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | election shocks, macroeconometric modeling, political business cycles |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-60 |
| By: | Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Estopace, Katha Ma-i M.; Lingatong, Edmar E.; Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L. |
| Abstract: | The study examines how linguistic mismatch between students’ home languages and the language of instruction shapes learning productivity in linguistically diverse societies. A framework is developed in which linguistic distance acts as a multiplicative tax on educational production, and welfare-theoretic conditions for optimal language choice are derived. The framework is applied to Philippine elementary schools during the 2009–2024 mother tongue-based multilingual education (MTB-MLE) reform, exploiting policy-induced variation in linguistic alignment using difference-in-differences and shift-share instrumental variables designs. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke family of deprivation measures, traditionally used to quantify income poverty, is extended to network settings in order to capture spatial variations in the degree of linguistic mismatch and estimate substantial school-based linguistic deprivation under a counterfactual pre-reform bilingual language regime, concentrated in non-Tagalog-predominant regions. Each unit of mismatch is found to reduce achievement by 35-57 percent of potential, depending on the curricular subject, yielding productivity losses comparable in magnitude to canonical estimates of spatial misallocation in firm production. Under a counterfactual pre-reform bilingual regime, an average student would have operated at 27–45 percent below learning potential, with losses concentrated in linguistically diverse regions. MTB-MLE reduced these losses by roughly two-thirds nationally, though systematic deviations from optimal language choice leave substantial efficiency gains unrealized. The reform also increased student continuation rates by 9-12 percentage points but temporarily strained classroom capacity, reflecting general-equilibrium resource pressures when demand-side constraints are relaxed. Overall, the results demonstrate that language policy is a first-order determinant of educational efficiency in multilingual settings and that measuring the quality of linguistic matching, rather than policy adoption alone, is central to evaluating language-in-education reforms. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Language policy, multilingual education, linguistic distance, allocative efficiency, Philippines, policy evaluation, EDCOM 2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-41 |
| By: | Arisa Chantaraboontha |
| Abstract: | This paper employs disaggregated panel data to examine the evolution of Thailand’s Phillips Curve (PC) before and during the pandemic, providing empirical evidence on the nature of Thai inflation dynamics and their implications for optimal monetary policy formulation. Utilizing the real output gap derived from various methodologies, the findings reveal a relatively flat PC for Thailand, with a slightly steeper curve after COVID-19. In addition to domestic demand, external demand—reflected through global energy prices and food prices—played a significant role in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. The Thai PC exhibits both backward-looking and forward-looking behavior, with a more weight on inertia parts. In addition to the price PC, the empirical evidence supports the presence of a wage PC, with coefficients comparable in magnitude to those for non-tradable inflation, suggesting that wage dynamics constitute a driver of non-tradable price developments. Meanwhile, staggered real wage setting is found to contribute to the backward-looking component of Thai inflation. Under an optimal inflation-targeting monetary policy, greater weight is placed on closing the inflation gap during normal periods, with even more emphasis during high-inflation episodes. This result, however, does not hold when the output gap is measured using the HP filter in the policy optimization. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1303 |
| By: | Hanifah, Vyta |
| Abstract: | Approximately 99% of Indonesian dairy farmers reside on Java Island, where small-scale farms (typically managing fewer than four cows and selling through local cooperatives) dominate dairy production. Despite their size, these farms play a vital role in sustaining rural economies and social structures. Women in dairy households contribute significantly to the dairy labour force, including feeding, watering, milking, managing manure, maintaining animal health, processing, and selling dairy products for income. Drawing on experiences from the Women’s Discussion Group initiatives under the IndoDairy (ACIAR-funded) and 1000 Srikandi (ADB-funded) projects, this case study illustrates how gender-sensitive technologies (i.e. mastitis testing using detergent or ‘surf’ test) and gender-inclusive extension services (i.e. hands-on training for women) enhance household resilience and foster food system sustainability. Analysis using a modified version of IFPRI’s Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI) reveals that women in these households are, on average, as empowered as men. The key drivers of this parity include shared responsibilities in farm management and asset ownership, control over income, and active participation in informal groups, though interestingly, not in dairy-related groups (e.g. cooperatives). A deeper examination of the A-WEAI domains, however, reveals persistent challenges in access to credit. Additionally, women’s participation in dairy cooperatives remains limited due to structural and cultural barriers, restricting involvement in decision-making and hindering access to key services and information. While high-level metrics (like A-WEAI) provide a useful tool to measure progress over time, this case study illustrates the need for nuance in the local context as we strive for climate-resilient and inclusive food systems. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp25:391435 |
| By: | Mani, Sunil |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the stark divergence in industrial robot adoption between China and India, benchmarking their trajectories in terms of scale, density, and sectoral and task diversity. Employing a three-factor analytical framework - labour market pressures, industrial structure, and government policy - the study explains China's rapid, state-orchestrated automation, which has bolstered export competitiveness despite rising wages. In contrast, India's adoption remains incremental and concentrated, constrained by its labour-abundant economy and less activist policy stance. The analysis reveals distinct implications: China enhances economic resilience but faces social risks from workforce displacement, while India preserves employment stability at the cost of global competitiveness and productivity. The findings underscore the critical need for policy realignment in both nations to harness the benefits of automation while mitigating its socioeconomic costs. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Robotics, Automation, China, India, Technological Divergence, Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | J24 O33 O14 L52 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336697 |
| By: | Toshihiro OKUBO; Naoto MIKAWA |
| Abstract: | In recent years, heightened geopolitical tensions and rapid progress in the digital economy have substantially increased uncertainty within firms’ business environments. Understanding how firms perceive such uncertainty, how it affects their activities, and how they respond is crucial for designing effective economic and industrial policies. This paper presents an overview and basic analysis of the Firm Survey on Uncertainty and the Digital Economy , conducted by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) between July and September 2025, focusing on Japanese manufacturing firms. The survey provides detailed information on firms’ perceptions of uncertainty and its impacts on business operations, the extent of digitalization in firms, including the use of artificial intelligence and robots, and their responses to changes in the global economic environment, such as adjustments to tariff policies. By documenting the current situation faced by Japanese manufacturing firms, this study offers policy-relevant insights into how firms cope with uncertainty in an era of rapid digital transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:26007 |
| By: | Gento Kato (School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University); Yuma Oshida (School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University); Rikuto Oi (School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University); Hiroyoshi Shibata (School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University); Shogo Karube (School of Political Science and Economics, Meiji University) |
| Abstract: | Do democratic voters prioritize civilian control over the arbitrary decisions of the military? Shinomoto (2025) examined this question in Japan through a survey experiment and concluded that average voters lose trust in the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) when the JSDF does not follow the orders of the Japanese Prime Minister. This study revisits this finding by conducting a survey experiment that examines Japanese voters’ trust in both the JSDF and the Japanese Prime Minister under plausible alternative scenarios of the JSDF’s dovish noncompliance with the Prime Minister’s hawkish orders. We find that (1) through its noncompliance, the JSDF loses trust from right-wing voters but gains trust from left-wing voters; and (2) the JSDF’s noncompliance reduces trust in the Prime Minister. The findings imply that Japanese voters’ reactions to failures in civilian control are largely based on personal values rather than a democratic value: they evaluate military noncompliance positively if it aligns with their ideology and lose confidence in their democratically-elected leader if his policies are vetoed by the military. These implications from a country with long-standing skepticism toward the military raise additional concerns about the civil-military relationship in democratic politics. |
| Keywords: | civil–military relations, survey experiment, Japan, democracy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2530 |
| By: | Robert J R ELLIOTT; Wenjing KUAI; Toshihiro OKUBO; Ceren OZGEN |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how international engagements shape heterogeneity in the greenness of Japanese manufacturing firms. Using a new firm-level dataset, we construct intensity-based greenness indicators distinguishing between the greenness of market facing products and the greenness of more governance-driven production processes. Our empirical results are three-fold. First, green activity is widespread across Japanese manufacturing sectors but is predominantly process-oriented, with the greenest firms concentrated in a small subset of industrial activities. Second, greenness is not linked to internationalization in general, but to firms being embedded in global value chains (GVCs), particularly in Western oriented networks, and this association is stronger for green processes. Third, we identify a vulnerability whereby product greening does not attenuate tariff induced sales losses among internationally engaged firms, and green processes do appear to amplify tariff exposure, especially for GVC participants. Overall, the results highlight that going green is multidimensional and that environmental process compliance interacts with GVC integration in shaping firms’ resilience to trade policy shocks under a trend towards further geoeconomic fragmentation. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26018 |
| By: | Wu, Victor Y. |
| Abstract: | Mehmood et al. (2023) estimate the effect of Ramadan fasting hours on judicial decisions using case-level data from Pakistan and India. Using exogenous variation in fasting intensity due to the Islamic lunar calendar and latitude, the authors find that Muslim judges are significantly more likely to issue acquittals with longer fasting hours. Their main result, reported in Table 1, shows that each additional hour of fasting beyond the baseline minimum increases acquittal rates by about 10%. I successfully computationally reproduced this main result using the original authors' data and code: I found no coding errors or discrepancies in the replication package, and the point estimates and p-values in my reproduction match those reported in the published article. I then evaluated robustness for the Pakistan sample of judges using three alternative specifications. First, the result is robust to alternative inclusion of control variables: It remains stable and statistically significant whether controlling for case-level covariates, judge-level covariates, both, or none. Second, the effect persists across a different fixed effects specification that includes only district fixed effects. Finally, the result is robust to clustering standard errors at the judge level, although clustering at the month level increases the standard error and renders the estimate statistically insignificant. Overall, the authors' main finding is both computationally reproducible and robust. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:279 |
| By: | Megumi NAOI; Banri ITO; Naoto JINJI |
| Abstract: | We present some of the first evidence on how geopolitics shapes policy preferences of firms from a large-scale firm-level survey and experiment in Japan fielded during Trump’s 2025 tariff negotiations. The experiment varies scenarios of supply-chain disruption of critical goods across different causes (natural disasters vs. geopolitics) and the affected domestic actors (“your firm†vs. “Japanese citizens†) and elicits firms’ preferred policy among diplomatic negotiations, protectionism, and subsidies aimed at promoting diversification and domestic production. We find that geopolitical causes increase support for diplomatic solutions and reduce support for de-risking subsidies relative to the control condition (natural disaster). Contrary to the democratic peace conjecture, businesses support diplomacy regardless of alliance status or whether the disruption originates in the U.S. or China. A small minority (6%) support protectionism, especially when the disruption originates in a non-ally country or China. Overall, Japanese firms are not flag followers. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26016 |
| By: | Biswabara Sahu (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sachchida Nand; Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | India's remarkable economic and agricultural transformation over the past six decades underscores both its achievements and emerging challenges in food and nutritional security. From producing 82 million tonnes (Mt) of foodgrains in 1960–61 to approximately 357.7 Mt in 2024–25, India has not only met the caloric needs of its rapidly growing population but has also become the largest exporter of rice globally, shipping over 20.2 Mt in FY2025 alone. At the same time, the country administers the PM-Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), the world's most extensive public food distribution scheme, which supplies 5 kg of free rice or wheat monthly to more than 800 million people. This combination of high production and subsidised access to basic staples has led to historic public food stocks, with the Food Corporation of India holding close to 57 Mt of rice — nearly four times the strategic buffer norm as of mid-2025. These gains have occurred alongside a significant reduction in extreme poverty, which has declined from 27.1 percent in 2011 to 5.3 percent in 2022. Despite these positive trends in food availability and poverty alleviation, chronic undernutrition persists, particularly among children. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21) shows that 35.5 per cent of children under the age of five are stunted, 32.1 percent are underweight, and 19.3 percent are wasted, revealing that caloric sufficiency alone does not guarantee nutritional well-being. These figures highlight the need to broaden the definition of food security to include nutrient quality, dietary diversity, and the micronutrient content of diets. |
| Keywords: | Soil Health, Plant Growth, Nutrition, Agriculture, Phosphorus, Potassium, Micronutrients, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-03 |
| By: | Kharazi, Aicha (University of Warwick); Lu, Saite (University of Cambridge); Mustafa, Ghulam (University of Derby & London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Public support for raising minimum wages as a policy response to economic inequality is increasing; however, empirical evidence from highly informal and weakly regulated labour markets remains limited. This study estimates the impact of minimum wage increases on earnings and hours worked in Pakistan, drawing on 21 waves of nationally representative Labour Force Survey data between 1992 and 2021. By leveraging national time variation in statutory minimum wages and pre-policy district exposure, proxied by the proportion of workers earning below the minimum wage prior to policy changes, we find that increases in the minimum wage are associated with statistically significant but modest gains in real hourly earnings, with stronger wage pass-through observed in local labour markets with higher initial exposure. The benefits are disproportionately greater for male workers; however, the policy has achieved only limited and uneven progress in reducing gender pay disparities. On the intensive margin, minimum wage increases are associated with reductions in hours worked, particularly among women. This pattern is consistent with adjustment through hours in segments characterised by part-time work and weaker compliance. Overall, the findings indicate that minimum wage policy can increase earnings in low-wage areas under conditions of partial compliance, yet has limited capacity to address persistent structural gender inequality in highly informal contexts. These results underscore the need for stronger enforcement and complementary, gender-sensitive labour market interventions |
| Keywords: | minimum wage ; hourly earnings ; hours worked JEL codes: J22 ; J31 ; J38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1597 |
| By: | Iqbal, Hafiz Masood Ahmad; Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This research undertakes a comparative analysis of governance practices, transparency, ethical compliance, and consumer protection in both conventional insurance and Islamic insurance (Takaful) within the context of Pakistan from 2016 to 2022 both theoretical frameworks and empirical data for comparative evaluation. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study evaluates 20 insurance companies, comprising 10 conventional insurers and 10 Takaful operators by analyzing dimensions such as board governance, disclosure transparency, consumer protection mechanisms, and ethical investment practices, through qualitative thematic analysis and quantitative disclosure scoring. The findings indicate that Takaful firms demonstrate stronger performance in governance (e.g., board independence), Shariah compliance (e.g., investment screening), and ethical consumer practices (e.g., dispute resolution and product disclosure), whereas conventional insurers excel in financial transparency, particularly in areas such as profit reporting and financial statement standardization. Despite these strengths, ethical disclosure remains limited within conventional insurance models, while Takaful operators face challenges related to inconsistent surplus distribution reporting. The study recommends policy-level reforms, organizational strategies, and further academic inquiry to promote ethical and inclusive insurance practices in Pakistan. It also underscores the need for standardized regulatory frameworks and enhanced stakeholder stewardship to ensure a balanced and accountable insurance sector. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Insurance (Takaful), Conventional Insurance, Ethical Compliance, Governance Practices |
| JEL: | P4 P5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127315 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; You, Zhuoying |
| Abstract: | Few studies have examined the economic consequences of deploying artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics in less-developed cities, where policies have often failed. To address this gap, we analyse a panel of 270 Chinese cities (2009–2019) using OLS, IV-2SLS, and quantile regression techniques. We find that AI and robotics significantly promote technological innovation in China, with especially pronounced implications for cities at or below the technological frontier. These technologies also enhance the returns to science and technology (S&T) investment. Its novelty lies in framing AI and robotics as policy substitutes and tools for narrowing innovation divides among Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | AI; robotics; technological innovation; Chinese cities |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137040 |
| By: | Étienne Lavenant; Bertrand Pluyaud |
| Abstract: | Since 2021, the gap between the Chinese trade surplus as measured by customs and the figure published in the balance of payments has widened markedly, raising questions over the reliability of the data. The divergence can be attributed to a change in the data sources used in the balance of payments, to take better account of international production arrangements. However, the change does not appear to have been applied to the years prior to 2021. <p> Depuis 2021, l’écart entre le solde commercial chinois mesuré par les douanes et celui publié dans la balance des paiements s’est sensiblement accru, ce qui a suscité des interrogations sur la fiabilité des données. Cet écart peut s’expliquer par un changement dans les sources utilisées en balance des paiements, afin de mieux prendre en compte les arrangements internationaux de fabrication. Mais ce changement ne semble pas avoir été appliqué sur les années antérieures à 2021. |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:427 |
| By: | Ahmed, Ribal |
| Abstract: | Despite Pakistan’s high tuberculosis burden, BCG vaccination coverage remains suboptimal (71.8%) with pronounced urban-rural disparities. This study analyses IPUMS-MICS6 data (2017-2020; n=17, 872 children aged 0-24 months) using survey weighted logistic regression and average marginal effects to quantify the influence of child, maternal, educational and socioeconomic determinants on BCG receipt, stratified by urban and rural residence. Maternal higher education demonstrated the highest absolute association with vaccination probability (21.3 percentage-point increase), followed by strong wealth gradients in rural populations (up to 13.1pp increase). Pre-term birth was associated with substantially higher predicted uptake in urban settings (14.5pp increase), with no comparable effect in rural areas, indicating contextual heterogeneity in access pathways. These findings reveal structurally patterned inequalities in early life immunisation focused on BCG receipt, highlighting persistent barriers to equitable EPI coverage. Policy response should priorities integrated social protection and health system strategies with education-focused interventions and demand-side support for targeting rural and socioeconomically disadvantaged households. |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g8de4_v1 |
| By: | Amir, Muhammad Sikander; Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence investment on firm profitability in Pakistan’s accounting, finance, and external audit sectors by introducing a composite metric called adjusted artificial intelligence investment. The data of 28 Pakistani firms from 2020 to 2024 has been used for empirical analysis. The research integrates technological infrastructure, cybersecurity risk, and regulatory support into a unified econometric framework. The study is anchored in the technology acceptance model and the resource-based view theory to explain the strategic value and adoption dynamics of artificial intelligence. Using panel least squares, fixed effects, and random effects regressions, the results consistently reveal that adjusted artificial intelligence investment and technological infrastructure significantly enhance firm profitability, while cybersecurity risk negatively influences it. Regulatory support exhibits mixed effects, being negatively associated in pooled models but positively in fixed effects analysis, highlighting the contextual role of governance frameworks. These findings carry significant implications for multiple stakeholder groups. For firm managers, the results underscore the importance of adopting a strategic, infrastructure-backed approach to AI implementation, prioritizing integration with secure digital environments. Policymakers must move beyond generic regulatory frameworks and instead focus on designing sector-specific policies that promote innovation without compromising compliance. Investors, too, can benefit from evaluating AI maturity as a key indicator of future profitability. Therefore, the study not only confirms the financial value of AI but also highlights the ecosystem-level support needed to realize its full potential. This research fills a key gap by holistically evaluating artificial intelligence's role in shaping firm performance in a developing economy context and offers actionable insights for businesses and regulators aiming to enhance profitability through technological integration. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Firm Profitability, Accounting, Technological Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Regulatory Support |
| JEL: | O3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127314 |
| By: | Nicholas Lacoste (Tulane University); Zehra Farooq (Federal Board of Revenue, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | This paper bridges welfare economics and machine learning econometrics to develop empirically implementable algorithms for optimal audit targeting. We derive a sufficient statistic-based targeting algorithm that depends on three individualized causal effects: the immediate revenue recovered from an audit, the causal effect of an audit on long-run tax revenue, and the marginal administrative cost of an audit. We estimate these effects with a variety of machine learners comparing causal forests, LASSO, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks using the universe of Pakistani income tax returns, exploiting years in which audits were assigned completely at random. We implement our targeting algorithms in out-of-bag years, comparing them to the real-world policy when audits were partially or entirely targeted. We show that the real world audit program in Pakistan lost almost 173, 000 Rs ($1, 700) in net revenue per-audit, while our optimal policy generates 285, 000 Rs ($2, 800) in expected net revenue per-audit. We also find that targeting audits based on immediate recoup is sub-optimal to targeting on long-run deterrence in this setting. Moving forward, our framework offers a general approach to empirical welfare maximization using machine learning in resource-constrained policy settings. |
| Keywords: | optimal audit policy, tax enforcement, machine learning, sufficient statistics |
| JEL: | H21 H26 C14 C45 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Mani, Sunil |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of loan guarantees in supporting the internationalisation of Indian firms through outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) since the mid-2000s. Despite a persistent domestic savings-investment gap and recurrent current account deficits, Indian OFDI has expanded significantly, raising questions about its underlying financing mechanisms. The paper argues that regulatory liberalisation and the growing use of loan guarantees have been central to this expansion. Using balance-of-payments analysis and a stylised framework that distinguishes between private and guaranteed financing channels, the study documents a shift in OFDI financing from equity dominance towards a more diversified structure that includes reinvested earnings, intercompany loans, external commercial borrowings, and guaranteed debt. While guarantee issuance has increased markedly, invocation rates remain low, indicating that guarantees primarily serve as credit-enhancement tools rather than realised fiscal liabilities. The paper concludes that India's predominantly private-risk approach has enabled corporate internationalisation while limiting direct sovereign exposure, but also highlights the need for improved transparency and risk monitoring as guarantee volumes continue to rise. |
| Keywords: | loan guarantees, outward FDI, India, corporate internationalisation, financial commitments, policy reforms |
| JEL: | F21 F23 H81 G28 F34 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336699 |