nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2026–04–13
nineteen papers chosen by
Subash Sasidharan, Indian Institute of Technology


  1. Projections of Heat Stress in Vietnam Using Physically-Projections of Heat Stress in Vietnam Using Physically-Based Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature By Dzung Nguyen-Le; Long Trinh-Tuan; Thanh Nguyen-Xuan; Tung Nguyen-Duy; Thanh Ngo-Duc; Marie-Noëlle Woillez
  2. Assessment of Future Droughts in Vietnam Using High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Projections By Marie-Noëlle Woillez; Thanh Nguyen-Xuan; Dzung Nguyen-Le; Quan Tran-Anh; Tung Nguyen-Duy; Thanh Ngo-Duc
  3. Cultivating Change: Long-Term Effects of Repeated Training on Organic Farming Adoption in Indonesia By Luck, Nathalie; Grimm, Michael; Tamtomo, Kristian
  4. The political economy of intergroup contact: evidence from Malaysia By Chun chee Kok; Gedeon Lim; Danial Shariat; Abu Siddique; Shunsuke Tsuda
  5. Can Creative Industries and Occupations Drive Regional Growth? Evidence from Local Employment Multipliers in Japan By NAGAMUNE, TAKESHI
  6. Trade Costs, Entry Costs, and Regional Economic Growth in China By Qian, Zeyi; Suzuki, Kensuke; Zhang, Junfu
  7. Conformity, Revolt, and Collapse: A Countercultural Signaling Framework for the Rise and Fall of Punch Perms in Postwar Japan By YAMAMURA, Eiji
  8. Please! Mind the (gender) Gap: A Comparative Analysis of Fare-Free Public Transport Policies for Women in Seven Indian States By Sharma, Dev Mani
  9. Fiscal Stimulus as Suicide Prevention: Evidence from the Great Depression in Japan, 1932-1935 By Ando, Michihito; Furuichi, Masato
  10. A Nonparametric Quantile Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility in China By Zongwu Cai; Weitong Wang; Jing Yuan
  11. Revisiting Shadow Short-term Interest Rate Models: Evidence from the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment in Japan By Hiroyuki Oi; Shigenori SHIRATSUKA; Shunichi Yoneyama
  12. Strategic Intergovernmental Competition in Japan's Hometown Tax Donation System (Furusato Nozei): A Hotelling-Type Model with Household Attachment By Toshiyuki Uemura
  13. The Impact of Workers’ Collective Voice on Union and Nonunion Wages: Theory and Evidence from Japan By Hiroyuki Nishiyama; Mina Nakano; Manabu Furuta; Mizuki Tsuboi
  14. China’s Trade Dominance and the Role of Industrial Policies By Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Mike Liu; Eva Van Leemput
  15. A Benchmark of Classical and Deep Learning Models for Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting on A Novel Bangladeshi Market Price Dataset By Tashreef Muhammad; Tahsin Ahmed; Meherun Farzana; Md. Mahmudul Hasan; Abrar Eyasir; Md. Emon Khan; Mahafuzul Islam Shawon; Ferdous Mondol; Mahmudul Hasan; Muhammad Ibrahim
  16. The Effects of Training under the Employment Adjustment Subsidy during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan By Yudai Higashi; Masaru Sasaki
  17. Effects of housing demolition on health and medical utilization: evidence from China By Yang, Di; Acharya, Yubraj
  18. The Effects of Training under the Employment Adjustment Subsidy during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan By Takashi Kamihigashi; Corrado Di Guilimi
  19. The Enclave Penalty: Tribes, Caste, and Electricity Reliability in India By Azam, Mehtabul

  1. By: Dzung Nguyen-Le (USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi); Long Trinh-Tuan (VAWR - Vietnam Academy for Water Resources); Thanh Nguyen-Xuan (USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi); Tung Nguyen-Duy (OUCRU - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit [Hanoi]); Thanh Ngo-Duc (USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi); Marie-Noëlle Woillez (AFD - Agence française de développement)
    Abstract: The wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a widely used index for assessing heat stress. However, many studies on heat stress under climate change rely on simplified WBGT calculations, which may introduce biases. In this study, high-resolution climate data and the physically-based WBGT model are employed to provide a more reliable assessment of future heat stress impacts across Vietnam and its seven sub-climatic regions. Projected changes are analyzed for three future periods — the near future (2021–2040), mid-future (2041–2060), and far future (2081–2100) — relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Additionally, changes are assessed across different global warming levels (GWL), ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above the pre-industrial level. Long-term trends throughout the studied period are also examined. The findings reveal significant increases in heat stress across Vietnam in the future. A major concern is the substantial increases in the number of days exceeding impact-relevant heat stress thresholds, most notably in the Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta, two most densely populated and agriculturally critical sub-regions of Vietnam. Heat stress emergence and intensity are closely linked to the radiative forcing of SSP scenarios and the GWLs, with higher forcing scenarios and warmer GWL producing more severe conditions and a greater frequency of exceedance days. The most severe impacts are projected under SSP5-8.5 as well as GWLs of 3°C and 4°C, indicating the urgent need to limit future warming to mitigate the risk of heat stress. Biases in simplified WBGT calculations are also discussed, suggesting significant overestimations of exceedance days in most of Vietnam. Such biases could lead to misleading assessments, unnecessary alarms, and potentially flawed adaptation strategies, highlighting the critical need for accurate WBGT modeling in climate impact research
    Keywords: Climate Change, heat stress, WBGT, Global Warming Level, Vietnam
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491507
  2. By: Marie-Noëlle Woillez (AFD - Agence française de développement); Thanh Nguyen-Xuan; Dzung Nguyen-Le (USTH - Department of Advanced Materials Science and Nanotechnology [Hanoi] - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi); Quan Tran-Anh (HUMG - Hanoi University of Mining and Geology); Tung Nguyen-Duy (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]); Thanh Ngo-Duc (USTH - Department of Advanced Materials Science and Nanotechnology [Hanoi] - USTH - University of Science and Technology of Hanoi)
    Abstract: study investigates drought conditions in Vietnam and its seven sub-climatic regions using the Standardized Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPEI was derived from daily, high-resolution (10-km) precipitation and temperature products from the CMIP6-VN dataset, which statistically downscaled CMIP6 global models. Performance evaluation of 22 CMIP6-VN models confirmed their accuracy in representing precipitation and temperature characteristics for the reference period (1985–2014). Regarding the future period (2015–2099) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), significant warming is projected across Vietnam, while precipitation projections remain uncertain, with most areas anticipated to experience slightly increased rainfall. SPEI results indicate that precipitation significantly influences drought conditions more than temperature, accounting for approximately 70% of the SPEI trend under SSP5- 8.5, which consequently introduces substantial uncertainty in drought projections. Drought conditions under different global warming levels (GWLs) were investigated, showing that while drought may not occur more frequently at high GWLs, more extreme drought events are projected. Five models exhibiting the most pronounced increasing drought trends were further analyzed, revealing a deterioration of all drought characteristics, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, and Central Highlands. Copula statistical analysis reveals that drought events with higher return periods tend to be more prolonged and severe in the future.
    Keywords: Drought, Statistical Downscaling, CMIP6, SSP scenarios, Vietnam, Climate Change Version
    Date: 2025–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491362
  3. By: Luck, Nathalie (University of Passau and TU Munich); Grimm, Michael (University of Passau); Tamtomo, Kristian (Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta)
    Abstract: Most impact assessments of agricultural training evaluate one-time interventions over short time horizons. However, farmers may initially show enthusiasm for a new technology but subsequently dis-adopt it after a trial period, while others may adopt practices gradually over time. This study investigates the causal impact of repeated agricultural training on the adoption of organic farming practices among Indonesian smallholder farmers. Using a randomized controlled trial and four waves of panel data spanning five years, we analyze adoption dynamics over time. Farmers in the treatment group received training twice, once in 2018 and again in 2022. Our findings show that repeated training significantly increased the adoption of organic farming practices, but no evidence that training motivated farmers to fully transition to organic farming. Adoption patterns reveal substantial dis-adoption, re-adoption, and late adoption following repeated training. The results contribute to understanding longer-term adoption dynamics after extension programs and provide insights into the challenges faced by smallholder farmers transitioning to sustainable agricultural practices.
    Keywords: organic farming, training, skills, technology adoption, information constraints, extension services, Indonesia
    JEL: C93 J24 J43 O12 O13 Q12 Q15 Q16
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18479
  4. By: Chun chee Kok (UC Louvain); Gedeon Lim (University of Hong Kong); Danial Shariat (UC Berkeley); Abu Siddique (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Shunsuke Tsuda (University of Essex)
    Date: 2026–04–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/21
  5. By: NAGAMUNE, TAKESHI (Niimi University)
    Abstract: The traditional economic base model in regional science argues that tradable industries promote regional development by earning income from outside the region and generating multiplier effects within the local economy. Within this theoretical framework, manufacturing has long been considered the primary export base. However, following the influential work of Moretti and others, recent empirical analyses demonstrate that industries fostering innovation and creative activities also exhibit substantial employment multipliers. This suggests that industries and occupations engaged in creative and intellectual activities can serve as new drivers of regional growth. This study focuses on municipalities in Japan, where the tertiarization of industry has advanced. Using industry and occupation classifications from Census data, we define “creative industries and occupations” and estimate their local employment multiplier effects through regression analysis. The empirical results confirm that these creative sectors exert a positive and statistically significant multiplier effect on regional economies, indicating their potential contribution to regional economic development. These findings demonstrate that promoting creative industries can complement traditional manufacturing-oriented strategies. They also provide empirical evidence—based on Japanese municipal-level data—to support the international discourse that knowledge- and creativity-based industries drive regional transformation.
    Date: 2026–03–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x2vcy_v1
  6. By: Qian, Zeyi (Clark University); Suzuki, Kensuke (Clark University); Zhang, Junfu (Clark University)
    Abstract: This paper examines sectoral growth patterns across Chinese provinces during the country’s economic takeoff in the early 2000s, following major policy reforms including trade liberalization, infrastructure expansion, business climate improvements, and relaxed rural-to-urban migration restrictions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms á la Melitz-Chaney to analyze how these reforms interacted to shape regional economic growth. We quantify the model for the Chinese economy and conduct counterfactuals to identify the key mechanisms driving regional development. We find that reductions in trade costs and lowered entry barriers facilitate firm entry and intensify competition. Together, these factors shape regional specialization and China’s overall economic growth. Our decomposition exercises reveal that lowered business entry costs played a larger role than the reduction in trade costs in promoting the growth of real wages, especially in inland provinces. This operates through a selection effect, where more productive firms expand and force the least productive ones to exit, and through increased variety, which effectively lowers the price index.
    Keywords: regional economic growth, trade costs, entry costs, Melitz-Chaney model, China’s manufacturing
    JEL: F12 R12 L60
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18507
  7. By: YAMAMURA, Eiji
    Abstract: This paper develops a countercultural signaling framework to explain the rise and fall of the punch perm in postwar Japan. Three conditions determined its social salience: the normative condition of democratic selfhood introduced by the postwar occupation, the income condition, and the systemic condition of a dominant social order sufficient to serve as a target for countercultural opposition. The analysis reveals a three-tier masculine appearance structure: the side-parted hairstyle as the elite standard, the crew cut as the working-class conformity signal, and the punch perm as its countercultural negation. The punch perm's peak coincided with the peak of Japan's corporate system in the 1980s. Its collapse reflected the destruction of the systemic condition. The analysis contributes to cultural economy by showing how value is relationally produced through opposition, and how institutional shifts reshape the conditions under which cultural forms acquire and lose social significance.
    Date: 2026–04–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fe7tj_v1
  8. By: Sharma, Dev Mani
    Abstract: This study provides the first comparative analysis of fare-free public transport (FFPT) policies for women across seven Indian states. The research compares the urban transport policy reforms of Delhi, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana. All seven reforms share a common objective: providing fare-free travel and enhanced safety to women in state public buses. These policies aim to address key barriers to women’s urban mobility, particularly high transport costs and safety concerns, which often limit their social and economic participation. Using secondary administrative data and published empirical evidence, the research examines the policies to assess the effects on women in India. The preliminary findings indicate a consistent pattern of increased ridership, improved affordability, and measurable household savings, with positive implications for women’s employment access and social inclusion across all seven states. However, the magnitude of these impacts varies across states due to differences in infrastructure capacity, fiscal sustainability, and policy design. The analysis identifies common benefits and recurring challenges, including overcrowding, fiscal pressure, and the exclusion of certain vulnerable groups. The study highlights fare-free public transport as a promising gender-responsive policy tool and outlines conditions under which such schemes are most likely to advance women’s empowerment.
    Date: 2026–03–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7bxvh_v1
  9. By: Ando, Michihito; Furuichi, Masato
    Abstract: Exploiting regional variation in local public spending during the Great Depression in Japan in the early 1930s, this study examines the effects of expansionary fiscal policy on suicide rates. Drawing on historical regional panel data from 1899 to 1938, the analysis shows that increases in local spending alleviated the rise in suicides during the Depression. The effects are particularly pronounced among young men and non-employed individuals. These findings suggest that the unprecedented fiscal stimulus contributed to reducing suicide, particularly among young men, in a manner consistent with an employment channel linked to public works spending.
    Date: 2026–03–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a3yhk_v1
  10. By: Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Weitong Wang (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China); Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China)
    Abstract: Scientifically measuring intergenerational mobility (IGM) and comprehensively analyzing the effects of factors influencing IGM provide a theoretical basis to improve public policies. This paper measures the elasticity of IGM in China and investigates the interaction effects of macro and micro influencing factors using a nonparametric gradient boosting tree quantile regression model. The empirical results show that, first, the gradient boosting tree quantile regression model fits better than the linear quantile regression model, with particularly significant nonlinear characteristics among those with annual incomes between ¥30, 000 and ¥150, 000. The intergenerational income elasticity in China ranges from 0.1861 to 0.7026, indicating a clear ``strong at both ends and weak in the middle'' effect of parental income on offspring income. Second, intergenerational income mobility exhibits heterogeneity in both income and region, with significant differences in the income transmission process and degree of nonlinearity across different regions. Third, this paper specifically explores the IGM characteristics of the two income groups, revealing that the most significant influencing factors for achieving income stratification are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment. Finally, this paper explores the poverty trap from the perspective of IGM, showing that in eastern regions, children from wealthy families may experience higher immobility or a wealth trap, while in other regions, children from impoverished families experience higher immobility or a poverty trap.
    Keywords: Gradient boosting tree quantile regression; Heterogeneity analysis; Intergenerational income mobility; Partial dependence; Random forest.
    JEL: J62 D63 C43 I31
    Date: 2025–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202602
  11. By: Hiroyuki Oi (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan); Shigenori SHIRATSUKA (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Shunichi Yoneyama (Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: Shadow short-term interest rate (SSR) models are expected to provide effective monetary policy indicators under the effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates. This paper revisits the SSR models using yield curve data from the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan. Specifically, this paper compares the various specifications of the SSR models based on the Nelson-Siegel model by focusing on a trade-off between estimation performance and theoretical consistency. This paper highlights the importance of evaluating monetary policy easing effects using the entire yield curve fluctuations, rather than relying solely on SSR estimates, especially in the ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan.
    Keywords: Effective lower bound constraint, Shadow short-term interest rates, Nelson-Siegel model, Monetary policy indicators.
    JEL: E43 E44 E52 G12
    Date: 2026–03–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-007
  12. By: Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This study theoretically and empirically examines competition among local governments in Japan's hometown tax donation system (Furusato Nozei) using a Hotelling-type model. This study makes four main contributions. First, it develops a simplified Hotelling-type model that incorporates household attachment to local governments in an economic space with donor households and multiple local governments, thereby capturing strategic competition over donation prices. Second, it analyzes the strategic behavior of local governments under the hometown tax donation system within the frameworks of Bertrand and Stackelberg competition. Third, it identifies the effects of policy parameters on equilibrium donation shares through comparative static analysis and verifies these results using numerical simulations. Fourth, using prefecture-level data, it conducts an empirical analysis based on a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method to address potential endogeneity of donation prices, confirming that the theoretical sign conditions of the donation share function are supported by the data. The results indicate that higher marginal costs reduce donation shares, while stronger brand strength of reciprocal gifts and greater household attachment increase donation shares, yielding important policy implications for the design of the hometown tax donation system.
    Keywords: hometown tax donation system, Hotelling-type model, donation prices, household attachment
    JEL: H71 H72 H77
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:308
  13. By: Hiroyuki Nishiyama (University of Hyogo); Mina Nakano (University of Hyogo); Manabu Furuta (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Mizuki Tsuboi (University of Hyogo)
    Abstract: We examine how workers’ collective voice affects union and nonunion wages both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple union model with a social insurance system and show that, due to two counteracting forces in bargaining, higher bargaining power raises both union and nonunion wages when ex-ante bargaining power is low but lowers them when it is sufficiently high. Using Japanese household-level data, we document an inverted U-shaped relationship between bargaining power and wages for both groups. Applying entropy balancing, we confirm that union wages are maximized at about 70 percent bargaining power, compared with 44 percent for nonunion wages. Given Japan’s current level of about 25 percent, stronger bargaining power and a rising societal willingness to improve working conditions are likely to benefit union members and also nonunion members once under union coverage.
    Keywords: Collective Voice; Union Wages; Nonunion Wages; Bargaining Power; Japan
    JEL: J31 J51
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2605
  14. By: Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Mike Liu; Eva Van Leemput
    Abstract: China's trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, exceeding 6% of its GDP, marking a new milestone in its integration into, and dominance of, the global trading system. This development has attracted heightened attention from policymakers and analysts, not only because of the sheer size of the surplus, but also because of growing concerns about the distribution of global manufacturing, the persistence of global external imbalances, and the role of industrial policy interventions in shaping trade outcomes.
    Date: 2026–03–23
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:102993
  15. By: Tashreef Muhammad; Tahsin Ahmed; Meherun Farzana; Md. Mahmudul Hasan; Abrar Eyasir; Md. Emon Khan; Mahafuzul Islam Shawon; Ferdous Mondol; Mahmudul Hasan; Muhammad Ibrahim
    Abstract: Accurate short-term forecasting of agricultural commodity prices is critical for food security planning and smallholder income stabilisation in developing economies, yet machine-learning-ready datasets for this purpose remain scarce in South Asia. This paper makes two contributions. First, we introduce AgriPriceBD, a benchmark dataset of 1, 779 daily retail mid-prices for five Bangladeshi commodities - garlic, chickpea, green chilli, cucumber, and sweet pumpkin - spanning July 2020 to June 2025, extracted from government reports via an LLM-assisted digitisation pipeline. Second, we evaluate seven forecasting approaches spanning classical models - na\"{i}ve persistence, SARIMA, and Prophet - and deep learning architectures - BiLSTM, Transformer, Time2Vec-enhanced Transformer, and Informer - with Diebold-Mariano statistical significance tests. Commodity price forecastability is fundamentally heterogeneous: na\"{i}ve persistence dominates on near-random-walk commodities. Time2Vec temporal encoding provides no statistically significant advantage over fixed sinusoidal encoding and causes catastrophic degradation on green chilli (+146.1% MAE, p
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.06227
  16. By: Yudai Higashi (Faculty of Economics, Kyoto Sangyo University and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Masaru Sasaki (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, JAPAN and Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), GERMANY)
    Abstract: In Japan, many establishments adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have received an Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS) to maintain employment. Beyond subsidizing temporary leave allowances, the EAS also includes a scheme that subsidizes employee training provided by establishments. Using establishment-level administrative data, this study examines the characteristics of establishments providing EAS-supported training to their employees and evaluates its effects on the probability of establishment closure, employment flows, and business activity levels during the pandemic. The results indicate that establishments with workforce compositions and industry affiliations linked with higher expected returns to human capital investment are more likely to provide EAS-supported training. Furthermore, the EAS-supported training provided early during the pandemic reduced the probability of establishment closures. Although this training temporarily increased the hiring rate during the EAS receipt period, this effect did not persist once receipt ended. There is no evidence that EAS-supported training reduced job separation rates or improved subjective business activity levels. Overall, the effects of EAS-supported training appear limited.
    Keywords: Employment adjustment subsidy; Training; Establishment closure; Employment flow; Business activity; COVID-19 Pandemic
    JEL: H25 J24 J63 L25
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-11
  17. By: Yang, Di; Acharya, Yubraj
    Abstract: Background China’s fast economic growth has been accompanied by rapid urbanization and urban renewal. Millions of households have experienced housing demolition and relocation (“chaiqian”) to vacate the land for urban renewal and infrastructure projects. Housing demolition can be a major life disruption and place a considerable burden on both mental and physical health. Meanwhile, replacement housing, provided as compensation for demolition, can improve housing quality and access to care, thus improving health. Methods Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and an event study model with a staggered difference-in-differences framework, we examined the effects of housing demolition on individuals’ medical utilization in the year of demolition, as well as two and four years afterward. Medical utilization was measured as whether an individual uses medical services (incurring medical expenditure) and the amount of medical expenditure if using medical services. We also explored the effects of housing demolition on health measures, namely self-rated health and mental health status, as potential mechanisms through which housing demolition affects medical utilization. Results Overall, housing demolition did not affect whether an individual used medical services. However, conditional on using medical services, housing demolition increased the amount of medical expenditure by approximately 1, 639 CNY (234 USD) two years after demolition. We did not find evidence that housing demolition is associated with self-rated health or mental health status. Moreover, we found urban-rural heterogeneity in the effects of housing demolition. Rural residents have a higher likelihood of using medical services and higher medical expenditure two years after demolition, while urban residents have a lower likelihood of using medical services four years after demolition. Conclusions Our findings highlight the importance of housing as a social determinant of health and contribute to the growing literature on development-induced displacement. The increased medical expenditure after housing demolition calls for a multidimensional evaluation of compensation for housing demolition. The compensation should consider both the loss of property itself and other associated adverse impacts, such as on health and medical care, to fully offset the burden of housing demolition, especially for rural residents who are particularly vulnerable after housing demolition.
    Keywords: housing demolition; development-induced displacement; medical utilization; medical expenditure; self-rated health; mental health; REF fund 2025/2026
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2026–12–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130937
  18. By: Takashi Kamihigashi (Center for Computational Social Science (CCSS) and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Corrado Di Guilimi (Economic Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney, AUSTRALIA, Department of Economics and ManagementUniversity of Florence, ITALY, Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, AUSTRALIA)
    Abstract: The paper introduces forward-looking intertemporal optimization in an agent-based model. Optimization is implemented considering, on the one hand that revision of economic behavior do not occur continuosly over time but only when circumstances suggest or impose it, and, on the other hand, that, given the inherent uncertainty and complexity of the economic system, the planning horizon is finite. We propose a macroeco nomic model with a large population of household agents. Each period a random sample of them will reset their propensities to consume and invest by maximizing their intertemporal utility. The study is a primer in considering the joint effect of heterogeneous agents’ interaction and forward-looking behavior, and provides novel insights into the mechanism of transmission of individual choices to the macroeconomy. The heavy computational tasks are managed through the development of new programming tools. The oexistence of interaction and forward looking be havior generates interesting coordination dynamics. The results suggest that even a tiny fraction of optimizing agents over the whole population has a significant effect of aggregate output, but this effect is nonlinear and conditional on the length of the panning horizon.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-13
  19. By: Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: India has achieved near-universal electrification, yet large inequalities persist in the reliability of the electricity supply. Combining high-resolution satellite-based measures of electricity reliability—defined as the share of nights with detectable illumination—with village-level census data, this paper shows that reliability remains systematically unequal across social groups. While Scheduled Caste villages largely track district-level reliability, Scheduled Tribe (ST) villages face a pronounced enclave penalty. Homogeneous ST enclaves (ST population ≥90%) exhibit 10.7 percentage points fewer illuminated nights than otherwise comparable villages within-district with low ST shares. We further identify a mobility trap: homogeneous ST enclaves are about 16.6 (16.0) percentage points more likely to remain energy poor in 2012 (2019) and 11.7 percentage points less likely to escape energy poverty between 2012 and 2019. These findings suggest that as access becomes universal, infrastructure exclusion increasingly operates through a less visible rationing of service quality in socially homogeneous tribal settlements.
    Keywords: electricity reliability, energy poverty, caste, tribes, India, night-time lights
    JEL: O13 O18 Q41 R12
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18493

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