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on South East Asia |
| By: | Cattan, Sarah; Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio; Stuhler, Jan; Wong, Po Yin |
| Abstract: | Standard intergenerational measures have been shown to understate the long-run persistence of socioeconomic advantages in developed countries. We study theoretically and empirically whether this pattern extends to less developed settings, using Indonesia as a case study. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and Census data, we study multigenerational correlations in education across three generations. Contrary to previous findings, we observe greater multigenerational mobility than parent-child correlations alone would suggest. We develop a theoretical framework to highlight two key factors influencing multigenerational dynamics in developing countries: (1) financial and credit constraints, and (2) cultural norms related to marital sorting. To confirm their relevance, we exploit regional variations in exposure to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and in marital customs. |
| JEL: | D1 I24 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21411 |
| By: | Nuwat Nookhwun; Jettawat Pattararangrong; Kittichai Saelee; Wisarut Suwanprasert |
| Abstract: | How did the 2018 U.S.–China trade war affect bystander economies embedded in global value chains? Using Thai customs data from 2013 to 2023, we document sizable trade diversion toward Thailand, a major third-country exporter with extensive trade links to both the United States and China. Thai exports to the U.S. expanded more in products facing larger U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods. This response was delayed, emerging only after three to four years, and was concentrated in capital goods within selected manufacturing sectors. We show that trade diversion was strongly mediated by global value chains: the products that expanded the most were those with pre-existing supply-chain linkages to China. Firm-level evidence suggests that the U.S. tariffs also lead to both increased imports of Chinese-sourced inputs and the transshipment of Chinese goods through Thailand. Nevertheless, after netting out transshipment and imported input content, we find that trade diversion generated substantial domestic value-added and employment gains. In contrast, Chinese retaliatory tariffs had limited spillover effects. Our findings show that the spillover effects of the trade war operated through supply-chain linkages and delivered meaningful real gains to a bystander economy. |
| Keywords: | Trade War; Trade Diversion; Tariffs, Supply Chains; Transshipment; Thailand; US; China |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:258 |
| By: | Sabrina Scherzer (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Christa Brunnschweiler (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Tiara Elgifienda (Universitas Bangka Belitung, Indonesia); Håkon da Silva Hyldmo (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Nanang Kurniawan (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia); Paivi Lujala (University of Oulo); Primi Putri (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Mineral producing countries increasingly mandate corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives to mitigate negative impacts of mineral extraction through local development projects, but evidence of their effectiveness is scarce. The Indonesian Program Pengembangan dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PPM) requires mining firms to fund local development projects. However, its effectiveness is limited by low public awareness and governance issues. We run a survey experiment with 610 respondents in 35 tinmining communities to test whether information on the PPM scheme and real-world examples of projects funded through it, presented through two video treatments, enhance knowledge and impact rights perceptions and behavior regarding PPM. Our findings show that a pure information treatment (T1) has a positive impact on respondents’ beliefs that they have a right to benefit from mining revenues but reduces their likelihood of making a donation to an NGO that supports PPM project implementation. Adding examples of successful PPM projects to the information treatment (T2) further strengthens respondents perceptions of their rights to benefit and influence decision-making and also increases the likelihood that they will request more information on PPM and local development, with no impact on actual behavior. We conclude that awareness of such revenue-sharing schemes like PPM could be enhanced with tailored information but whether this would be enough to increase involvement by local communities is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | accountability, Indonesia, tin revenues, survey experiment, information treatment |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:20726 |
| By: | Ortega, Fernanda; Snower, Dennis |
| Abstract: | The experience of rapid economic growth and transition to high-income status in Asian countries has brought about significant improvements in material well-being and aggregate economic prosperity. This article examines the degree to which economic prosperity is the “great enabler†of social and environmental prosperity. We provide conceptual reasons why this is not necessarily the case and empirical evidence that the escape from the middle-income trap in three Asian high-income countries – Japan, Singapore and South Korea – was a mixed blessing, linked to challenges regarding social solidarity, personal and collective agency and environmental stewardship. Under these circumstances, traditional prescriptions for escaping the middle-income trap are insufficient. Without success in the social and environmental spheres, social fragmentation and environmental disruption is likely to occur, possibly leading to political instabilities, economic fragmentation and social conflict. This paper investigates this problem for the three Asian high-income countries, based on empirical measures of solidarity (S), agency (A), material gain (G) and environmental stewardship (E) that are consistent through time and across countries. On this foundation, policy recommendations are considered that are meant to run alongside the standard prescriptions to make the resulting package socially and environmentally acceptable. |
| JEL: | O10 O47 O53 I31 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21565 |
| By: | Esham, Nadia; Halim, Daniel Zefanya; Mattoo, Aaditya |
| Abstract: | Markets and public institutions must anticipate evolving care demand driven by East Asia and the Pacific’s exceptionally rapid demographic transition. To this end, this paper develops the Care Simulation Model, a demographic model that estimates gaps in childcare and eldercare needs. By integrating publicly available demographic data, the model captures both care needs and the availability of family caregivers across life cycles and cohorts, allowing the assessment of how demographic shifts may change reliance on family-based care. The paper quantifies unmet family care needs and translates them into estimates of potential market size, defined as the share of households likely to require care services outside the family and the corresponding potential employment creation in childcare and eldercare. By 2030, the childcare needs of an estimated 25 percent of households and the eldercare needs of 7 percent of households in ASEAN-5 countries may not be met within the family. After accounting for family availability and current care employment, the unmet need across 21 countries in East Asia and the Pacific translates into a potential gap of 19.9 million jobs in childcare and 34.1 million jobs in eldercare. The model offers a transparent, cross-country framework to inform care policy, workforce planning, and investment strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11417 |
| By: | Bussolo, Maurizio; Peragine, Vito; Reutzel, Fabian |
| Abstract: | More than two decades of sustained economic growth in South Asia brought significant reductions in poverty, yet inclusive social progress has remained elusive. Using a pseudo-panel approach with a large-scale harmonized dataset of 20 million observations across seven South Asian countries, this paper traces the evolution of inequality of opportunity across cohorts born between 1950s and 1990s for three out-comes: education, labor markets, and consumption. The findings show substantial improvements in educational opportunities and unchanging high levels of inequality of opportunity in consumption. Three mechanisms explain this divergence. First, educational expansion focused on basic schooling for the 1950s to 1980s cohorts—a skill level with limited labor market returns. Second, despite narrowing gender gaps in educational attainment, female labor force participation remains stubbornly low across cohorts. Third, even among equally educated individuals, circumstances continue to predict labor outcomes, suggesting persistent structural barriers to labor market access and fair rewards. |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11395 |
| By: | Sana Khan; Lucia Ferrone |
| Abstract: | The concept of women's empowerment has received a lot of recognition in the past few years and is considered an important factor in determining the nutritional outcomes of children. Nevertheless, there is a lack of evidence regarding the impact of women's empowerment on infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices. This study examined the causal relationship between women’s empowerment and IYCF outcomes by utilizing the most recent data from the Demographic and Health Survey (2022) conducted in Nepal. Women's empowerment is measured using a composite index that encompasses five domains: information access, healthcare access, asset ownership, decision-making autonomy, and attitude towards domestic abuse. Each of these dimensions was also analyzed separately to assess its impact on IYCF practices. The empirical strategy encompassed the Lewbel two-stage least squares method (I+E) as the primary methodology. The findings indicate a positive relationship between the overall women’s empowerment score and minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet, and iron-rich foods. Specifically, the information access dimension has a positive relationship with the minimum acceptable diet and iron-rich foods. The decision making autonomy dimension is positively related to the minimum meal frequency, vitamin-A rich foods, and iron-rich foods. The attitude toward domestic violence dimension indicates a positive relationship with minimum dietary diversity, minimum acceptable diet, and vitamin-A rich foods. Further analysis also suggests that women's empowerment has an indirect effect on IYCF practices, specifically through mother’s education. It has a substantial positive impact on minimal dietary diversity, a minimum acceptable diet, and vitamin A rich foods. Interventions aimed at enhancing IYCF practices in Nepal should prioritize women's empowerment strategies. In particular, focus on key areas such as decision-making autonomy, access to information, and shaping women's attitudes towards domestic violence. Likewise, it is also necessary to comprehend the indirect impact of a mother's education on these child nutritional outcomes. |
| Keywords: | infant and child feeding practices, women’s empowerment, Lewbel estimation method, mediation analysis |
| JEL: | I15 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_04.rdf |
| By: | Heblich, Stephan; Seror, Marlon; Xu, Hao; Zylberberg, Yanos |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on “Million-Rouble Plants†built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting. We find a boom-and-bust pattern: Counties hosting these plants were 80% more productive than control counties in 1982 but 20% less productive by 2010. This decline reflects the performance of local establishments, which exhibit low productivity, limited innovation, and high markup. Specialization hindered spillovers, preventing the emergence of new clusters and local entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | Specialization; Place-based policies; Spillovers |
| JEL: | R11 R53 J24 N95 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21527 |
| By: | Malesky, Edmund J.; Mattsson, Martin; Vu, Khoa; Zhang, Liaoliang |
| Abstract: | Education and corruption are negatively correlated at the cross-national level, but little is known about the causal relationship between the two. We combine newly-collected data on timing and locations of Vietnam’s national expansion of universities with detailed survey data on experiences of corruption from over 170, 000 respondents in 320 districts across 12 years. Using staggered difference-in-differences, we show that cohorts exposed to the university expansion are 78% more likely to have a university education. However, this increase neither translates into fewer individuals being affected by corruption nor increases the propensity to denounce corrupt officials. Instead, we find that education increases exposure to corruption at the individual level. The mechanism for this increase that is most consistent with our data is that education raises household income and higher income leads to more bribe payments. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; Education |
| JEL: | D73 H75 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21302 |
| By: | Moritz Uhl (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Reoccurring instability keeps forcing central banks repeatedly to intervene in financial markets, since the 2007-2008 crisis most notably with massive asset purchases, whose popularisation was spearheaded by the Bank of Japan. This paper exploits the world's first implementation of quantitative easing in the vicinity of zero interest rates in Japan from 1999 through 2006 to evaluate their distributional impact by means of the synthetic control method. Comparing the actual and counterfactual development demonstrates that unconventional monetary policy increased the top 10 percent to bottom 50 percent income ratio by more than 28 percent. This exercise also detects a rise of more than 7 percent for the Gini coefficient which is beneath the corresponding value of 12.5 percent for the share of the top income decile. These results, together with evidence from capital and labour income trends as well as data on household ownership of financial assets, suggest that inequality widened via heightening asset prices converting into gains for richer income groups. Conditional upon structural features of an economy a negative distributional side effect of central banking's new tools may turn out to be of severe magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Income inequality, Unconventional monetary policy, Quantitative easing, Synthetic control method |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:692 |
| By: | Badola, Shivani (Institute for Studies in Industrial Development); Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Credit constraints often hinder investment in unincorporated enterprises, limiting innovation and overall performance, including reduced productivity and output, and slower growth. In this paper, we assess credit constraints on unincorporated enterprises using NSSO’s unit-level data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Enterprises 2022-23. Identifying the factors and determinants of credit constraints is crucial for informing policy recommendations. Based on sources of outstanding loans and survey responses, we classify enterprises into three categories: fully constrained, partially constrained, and not constrained. We find that manufacturing enterprises face more credit constraints than those engaged in trading and services. Furthermore, the study indicates that female entrepreneurs and those belonging to SC/ST or OBC castes face comparatively greater credit constraints than others. Other factors, such as region (rural vs. urban), size (annual turnover and asset value), GST registration status, price-cost margin, etc., are strong determinants of credit constraints or access to credit. |
| Keywords: | Unincorporated Enterprises ; Credit Constraints ; Manufacturing ; Multinomial logit model ; India |
| JEL: | C35 E51 G20 L60 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:26/449 |