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on South East Asia |
| By: | Danny Hermawan (Bank Indonesia); Cicilia A. Harun (Bank Indonesia); Ade Dwi Aryani (Bank Indonesia); Dwi Cahyo Ardianto (Bank Indonesia); Eskanto Adi Nugroho (Bank Indonesia); Andi Widianto (Bank Indonesia); Najibullah Ulul Albab (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how digital trade in services (DTS) can promote economic growth and improve Indonesia's digital trade balance. Over the past two decades, digital transformation has reshaped global trade, but developing economies such as Indonesia face a dual reality of opportunities and infrastructure constraints. Despite sectoral growth, Indonesia recorded a USD 18.4 billion deficit in DTS in 2024, driven primarily by imports of telecommunications, professional services, and digital content. This trade imbalance underscores the need to optimize Indonesia's digital services exports and reduce dependence on foreign digital products. Using a mixedmethods approach that combines cross-country panel GMM and time-series GMM for Indonesia, the study finds that regulations, digital talent, and digital infrastructure are critical to accelerating economic growth and enhancing the competitiveness of digital service exports. However, strict regulations can hinder exports, particularly in developing countries that face challenges in regulatory and infrastructure capacity. In Indonesia, while improved regulations can support economic growth and reduce the DTS deficit, further development of digital talent and infrastructure is essential to driving growth. The study recommends focusing on developing digital talent, strengthening regulations, and expanding digital infrastructure. These efforts will reduce the DTS deficit and position Indonesia as a competitive player in the global digital economy. |
| Keywords: | Digitally-enabled services, Digital services exports, Digital trade balance, Economic growth, GMM |
| JEL: | F10 F14 O40 C36 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp032025 |
| By: | Danny Hermawan (Bank Indonesia); Cicilia Anggadewi Harun (Bank Indonesia); Citra Amanda (Bank Indonesia); Elpiwin Adela (Bank Indonesia); Marissa Novita (Bank Indonesia); Ananda Surya Dahana Dewantara (Bank Indonesia); Ilham Farizi Indrayadi (Bank Indonesia); Fariz Ahmad Sultansyah (Bank Indonesia); Matias Judatama (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the structural challenges hindering Indonesia’s transition toward an innovation-driven, high-income economy, focusing on the interconnected roles of human capital, productivity, and technological capability. Using a mixed-method approach that combines 2SLS econometric modelling with extensive qualitative evidence from national focus group discussions across universities, government institutions, and industry stakeholders, the study finds that weaknesses in education quality, fragmented talent pipelines, and persistent gaps in university-industry collaboration significantly suppress Indonesia’s innovation output. The quantitative results demonstrate that human capital exerts a strong causal influence on productivity and income, yet its impact is constrained by weak R&D ecosystems and low patent generation capacity. Qualitative insights further reveal systemic misalignment across education policy, labour-market demand, and research commercialization, producing a “human capital paradox†in which increased educational attainment does not translate into proportional economic gains. These findings underscore the urgent need for an integrated national strategy that simultaneously strengthens foundational education, expands R&D capacity, and builds cohesive innovation ecosystems to accelerate Indonesia’s escape from the middle-income trap. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Economies, Human Capital, Innovation Ecosystem, MiddleIncome Trap, Productivity |
| JEL: | O15 O31 O47 O53 I2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp062025 |
| By: | Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Aung, Zin Wai; Goeb, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5, 000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation. |
| Keywords: | climate change; risk; conflicts; climate-smart agriculture; agriculture; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178197 |
| By: | Heiduk, Felix |
| Abstract: | Five years after the bloody military coup and amid a civil war, elections have taken place in Myanmar. They were neither free nor fair, nor was any attempt made to keep up an appearance of even minimum democratic standards. From the outset, the main purpose of the elections was not political participation but an authoritarian-led transition from military rule to a "civilian" government. The country's new executive is intended to appear legitimate both nationally and internationally (on account of the ballot) and at the same time consolidate the military's dominance. For its part, Myanmar's military leadership claims the elections mark a "new beginning" to restore political stability in the country and break its international isolation. The reference here is, among others, to the European Union (EU) and its member states, which have imposed sanctions against Myanmar. However, they should not believe the myth of a "civilian" elected government and a "return" to constitutional order; and, accordingly, they should not seek to normalise relations with Myanmar for the time being. |
| Keywords: | Myanmar, international isolation, "polycrisis", China, EU, UN, ASEAN, Rohingya, National Unity Government (NUG), military coup, civil war, elections, ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), authoritarian-led transition, National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:338245 |
| By: | Tauseef, Salauddin; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi |
| Abstract: | This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; diet quality; income; conflicts; food prices; remittances; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:175339 |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Harsh Wardhan; Sulakshana Rao; Raya Das |
| Abstract: | This policy brief assesses the scope of increasing Indian exports to Russia, focusing on select sectors, hard-hit by Trump's tariffs. In T&A, India faces a significant disadvantage due to 13-14 per cent tariffs, compared to zero-duty for Vietnam. In fisheries, although India’s seafood exports total USD 7.4 billion (2024-25), exports to Russia remain limited at USD 138 million, confined to frozen shrimp. Given Russia's USD 2.12 billion import, significant untapped potential exists in mackerel, trout and other value-added products. In case of agriculture, high-value segments, including processed fruits and vegetables and animal products such as bovine meat create clear openings. Yet high tariffs, SPS barriers, certification delays and logistics costs persist. |
| Keywords: | India-Russia Bilateral trade, agriculture, shrimps, textiles, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:57 |
| By: | Tauseef, Salauddin; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi; van Asselt, Joanna |
| Abstract: | Persistent Hunger: Extreme hunger continued to affect nearly 3.5 percent of households in late 2025. Poor Adult Diet Quality: Over a quarter of adults (27.1 percent) lack adequate dietary diversity. Women’s diet quality has worsened faster than men’s over the past three years. Deteriorating diets of young children: Over 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months old children are without an adequately diverse diet, significantly higher than in previous years. Multiple Factors Affecting Risk & Resilience: Low assets, conflict, and high food prices drive insecurity; remittances reduce food-related risks. This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using nine rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to October 2025. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2025. Nearly 3.5 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in July-October 2025, with low asset households disproportionately affected. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 16.2 percent in July-October 2025. Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 27.1 percent between December 2021-February 2022 and July-October 2025. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality during this time (8.7 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.9 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food. In the latest round of survey, children with poor diet quality increased compared to previous rounds – currently in 2025, 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months children are without an adequately diverse diet compared to 30.7 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively, in 2024. Similarly, 42.9 percent of children aged 6-23 months in Myanmar do not meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD), a composite indicator of meal frequency and dietary diversity, indicating widespread inadequacy in infant and young child feeding. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity also increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups, is needed. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; hunger; households; dietary diversity; food consumption statistics; regression analysis; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:182086 |
| By: | Rudy Marhastari (Bank Indonesia); MHA Ridhwa (Bank Indonesia); Amelia A. Hidayat (Bank Indonesia); Shinta Fitrianti (Bank Indonesia); Desthy V.B. Sianipar (Bank Indonesia); Ais Nisa M. (Bank Indonesia); Sulistiyo K. Ardiyono (Bank Indonesia); Elpiwin Adela, M. (Bank Indonesia); Adamul Khair (Bank Indonesia); Anna Setyawati (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of the Trump 2.0 reciprocal tariff policy on Indonesia’s exports and identifies export opportunities and challenges amid rising global protectionism. Using granular HS 6-digit commodity data, the analysis maps priority export sectors most vulnerable to tariff shocks. A mixed-methods approach combines multicountry partial equilibrium and CGE-GTAP models to estimate direct effects, while Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) data capture indirect spillover effects through affected trading partners. Qualitative evidence from Focus Group Discussions and field surveys complements the quantitative analysis. The findings show that Trump 2.0 tariffs are likely to suppress Indonesia’s exports both directly and through global spillovers. However, significant opportunities remain through export diversification toward Europe, the Middle East, Canada, and Mexico, as well as through trade creation in strategic commodities such as palm oil, nickel, and rubber. The study highlights the need to accelerate downstream industrial development, strengthen strategic industrial ecosystems, and better align trade and investment policies to enhance Indonesia’s export resilience and competitiveness amid evolving geopolitical conditions. |
| Keywords: | Reciprocal tariffs, export diversification, global value chain (GVC) |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp022025 |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Reardon, Thomas; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet |
| Abstract: | With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include: 1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016. 2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013. 3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains. 4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services. 5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions. 6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers. 7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge. 8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers. 9. Policy Implications: • The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns. • The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit. • The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides. • Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence. |
| Keywords: | agricultural value chains; farm inputs; Myanmar; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:176165 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Kala, Peggy |
| Abstract: | Adverse nutritional outcomes for children under five remain a significant challenge around the world, and there is growing evidence that women’s empowerment is associated with better children’s nutritional outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the association between women’s empowerment and the probability of stunting, wasting, underweight status, and achieving dietary diversity for children under five using a cross-country sample of Demographic and Health Survey data from three countries in the Asia – Pacific region: Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. We construct the Survey-based Women’s Empowerment (SWPER) index as well as a slightly modified SWPER index using women’s reported experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) rather than attitudes toward domestic violence (employed in the original index). Our findings suggest that women’s empowerment as captured by the SWPER index is associated with a reduced incidence of stunting, wasting and underweight status and a higher probability that children achieve MDD, though this relationship is only weakly observed in Timor-Leste. In general, the index estimated using experience of IPV shows a clearer association with nutritional outcomes, vis-a-vis the index estimated using attitudes toward IPV. |
| Keywords: | women's empowerment; gender; child nutrition; nutrition; children; women; surveys; Papua New Guinea; Sri Lanka; Timor-Leste; Oceania; Asia; Southern Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:178756 |
| By: | Kumar, Anjani; Bathla, Seema; Singh, Dhiraj K. |
| Abstract: | This study examines gendered patterns of time use in rural India using nationally representative time use surveys from 2019 and 2024, capturing shifts in labor force participation amid significant socioeconomic changes, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis reveals a notable rise in rural women’s labor force participation—from 32 percent to 35.9 percent in agriculture—with a 38 percent increase in their paid agricultural work time. However, this progress coexists alongside entrenched gender disparities in unpaid domestic work, where women continue to spend nearly five hours daily, limiting their engagement in nonagricultural employment, which remains male-dominated and stagnant for women. Using multivariate regression and Gelbach decomposition, the study identifies gender, landholding, education, income, and caste as significant determinants of time allocation. Yet, much of the increase in women’s work time is driven by unobserved factors, likely linked to post-pandemic livelihood adjustments and structural constraints. The findings underscore that recent gains in women’s participation reflect genuine shifts rather than statistical artefacts but caution that without addressing time poverty, gender norms, and access to diversified livelihoods, these gains may not translate into sustainable empowerment. The paper calls for integrated policy measures, including gender-responsive agricultural support, public care infrastructure, skill development, and behavioral interventions to rebalance domestic responsibilities and facilitate women’s transition to higher productivity sectors. |
| Keywords: | gender; labour; multivariate analysis; rural areas; unpaid work; surveys; time study; India; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:181545 |
| By: | Bin Khaled, Muhammad Nahian; Maredia, Mywish K.; Narayanan, Sudha; Belton, Ben; Kabir, Razin |
| Abstract: | Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks. |
| Keywords: | farmers; shellfish diseases; financial policies; shrimp culture; pond culture; supply chains; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178761 |
| By: | Mahzab, Moogdho; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Mattsson, Martin; Anowar, Md Sadat |
| Abstract: | Agriculture remains central to Bangladesh’s economy and food security, yet it is increasingly threatened by the rapid expansion of informal brick manufacturing that extracts fertile topsoil from cropland and generates heavy local pollution. This paper provides national-scale causal evidence on how brick kiln expansion affects vegetation health and agricultural productivity by combining long-run satellite observations with geolocated kiln data. We construct a spatiotemporal panel of unions and municipalities using annual the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) from 2002–2024 and a high-resolution inventory of 9, 187 brick kilns detected through satellite imagery and machine learning. Using a continuous and staggered difference-in-differences design, we find no evidence of differential pre-trends, but we do find a clear and persistent deterioration in vegetation health following kiln establishment. The magnitude is economically meaningful: a marginal increase in kiln presence is associated with roughly a 1 percent annual decline in local vegetation productivity, with effects that persist and accumulate over time. These results are consistent with long-run soil degradation and chronic environmental exposure around kiln sites, and they imply substantial hidden costs of informal industrial growth in densely cultivated landscapes. The findings highlight the urgency of stronger enforcement of siting rules, of incentives for cleaner production technologies, and of land-use planning that protects high-productivity agricultural zones. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; food security; plant health; remote sensing; drying kilns; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180697 |
| By: | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Karim, Ridwan |
| Abstract: | Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1, 000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. |
| Keywords: | heat stress; schools; children; rural areas; labour; heatwaves; child labour; climate change; adolescents; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180558 |
| By: | Mahzab, Moogdho; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Mattsson, Martin; Anowar, Md Sadat |
| Abstract: | Agriculture remains central to Bangladesh’s economy and food security, yet it is increasingly threatened by the rapid expansion of informal brick manufacturing that extracts fertile topsoil from cropland and generates heavy local pollution. This paper provides national-scale causal evidence on how brick kiln expansion affects vegetation health and agricultural productivity by combining long-run satellite observations with geolocated kiln data. We construct a spatiotemporal panel of unions and municipalities using annual the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) from 2002–2024 and a high-resolution inventory of 9, 187 brick kilns detected through satellite imagery and machine learning. Using a continuous and staggered difference-in-differences design, we find no evidence of differential pre-trends, but we do find a clear and persistent deterioration in vegetation health following kiln establishment. The magnitude is economically meaningful: a marginal increase in kiln presence is associated with roughly a 1 percent annual decline in local vegetation productivity, with effects that persist and accumulate over time. These results are consistent with long-run soil degradation and chronic environmental exposure around kiln sites, and they imply substantial hidden costs of informal industrial growth in densely cultivated landscapes. The findings highlight the urgency of stronger enforcement of siting rules, of incentives for cleaner production technologies, and of land-use planning that protects high-productivity agricultural zones. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity; food security; plant health; remote sensing; drying kilns; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180697 |
| By: | Ho, Ka Ki Lawrence; , KuoRayMao; Chan, Henry Hin-Yan; Hagan, Alex |
| Abstract: | This article applies institutional and media content analysis to investigate the legitimation and criminalisation of cross-border trade within the “Southern Chinese Seaboard, ” specifically between Taiwan and China and between Hong Kong and mainland China, a region characterised by diverse taxation and legal jurisdictions, as well as rapidly evolving political-economic and regional geo-political dynamics. This study re-evaluates common media portrayals and simplistic perceptions of “illicit” and “parallel trading” as merely spontaneous actions by individuals embedded in criminal networks. Instead, we posit that such activities stem from deliberately vague taxation and legal definitions, as well as enforcement strategies resulting from collusion between state and non-state actors. Utilising the “Regime of Permission” framework, this study examines how political actors manipulate the definitions of licit and illicit trading to achieve political objectives, thereby creating loopholes that non-state actors exploit. The findings demonstrate that the delineation and oversight of illicit trade have evolved in response to shifting economic relationships and the development of enforcement institutions within a changing geo-political landscape, offering deeper insight into the state’s role in creating and maintaining liminal spaces that regulate the boundaries between lawful, unlawful, and socially illicit trade. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c3d2b_v1 |
| By: | You Wu (School of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK) |
| Abstract: | China’s New Energy Demonstration Cities (NEDCs) sought to develop affordable, clean energy. This study therefore examines the NEDCs’ effectiveness in mitigating energy poverty (EP). We focus on electricity consumption, economic development, and renewable uptake – three components of International Energy Agency’s (IEA) measure of EP. Using panel data from 281 Chinese cities (2011-2021) and propensity score matching with difference-in-differences, the analysis found no statistically or economically significant overall effect of NEDCs on reducing EP. This is also consistent across the three IEA sub-components. The findings suggest this ineffectiveness may stem from weak enforcement, low public participation, and inequalities in income and education. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences; China; New Energy; Development Policy; Energy Poverty |
| JEL: | Q48 C23 P28 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2026001 |
| By: | Celine (Yue) Fei; Ulrich Hege; Xiao Jia |
| Abstract: | We study how IPO reforms transmit to venture capital (VC) markets using the introduction of China’s entrepreneurial boards, ChiNext and the registration-based STAR. We document that both boards attract younger, higher-growth firms with weaker fundamentals in levels, but post IPO growth persists for ChiNext firms while decelerating sharply for STAR firms. VC backing plays different roles across regimes: on ChiNext it aligns with valuation premia and long-run outperformance, whereas on STAR it mainly predicts higher first-day returns. To identify causal effects on VC allocation, we construct novel text-based regulatory exposure measures from listing documents using keyword matching and Sentence-BERT semantic similarity, and show that VC financing reallocates toward firms more aligned with “supported” activities. |
| Keywords: | IPO Reforms; IPO Listing Requirements; Venture Capital; Business Description; BERT; China |
| JEL: | G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_736 |
| By: | He; Z.; |
| Abstract: | Using a non-parametric fuzzy regression discontinuity design and leveraging data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this paper explores the role of the urban-rural split in China’s pension system in shaping healthcare utilization and health outcomes. Our estimates show that receipt of public pensions, particularly the Urban Employee Basic Pension Scheme (UEBPS), significantly improves self-reported health, mental health (CES-D scores), and physical health (ADL scales), especially among urban married males. However, there are no significant effects on healthcare utilization among urban residents. Moreover, social pensions, the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), increase healthcare utilization(inpatient/outpatient)and corresponding healthcare spending of the rural population, particularly among married male residents. Additionally, these findings exhibit heterogeneity across gender, rural-urban differences, hukou status, and marital status. Furthermore, the health effects stemming from urban pension schemes can be explained by retirement, providing more leisure time for males and grandparental childcare responsibilities for females. However, the positive effect on healthcare use of rural males and the null effect for rural females are driven by the pure income effect of household joint financial pooling under the NRPS and female altruism. Finally, we find that integrating NRPS and URPS increased migration, non-agricultural employment, and health of non-pensioners, with no effect on rural pensioners. |
| Keywords: | pension schemes; non-parametric fuzzy regression discontinuity; health service utilization; urban-rural split; |
| JEL: | I0 I1 J0 J1 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/03 |
| By: | Singh, Rahul |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a seven-pillar Comprehensive National Power (CNP) Index to provide a transparent, replicable benchmark of the relative power positions of India and China within a ten-country reference group comprising the United States, China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Brazil, and the Republic of Korea. Drawing on twenty-one publicly available indicators sourced from the IMF World Economic Outlook (2024), SIPRI (2025), WIPO Global Innovation Index (2024), Stanford HAI Global AI Vibrancy Tool (2024), UNDP Human Development Report (2025), Brand Finance Global Soft Power Index (2025), the Fund for Peace Fragile States Index (2024), the World Bank World Governance Indicators (2023), and the UN E-Government Development Index (2024), each indicator is subjected to min–max normalisation before being aggregated into pillar scores and a weighted composite index. The results show that China’s CNP score of 62.35 leads India’s 33.83 by 28.5 index points—a gap driven primarily by China’s dominance in the Economic (pillar score: 78.2 vs. 16.9), Technological (57.8 vs. 18.8), and Diplomatic (64.7 vs. 23.6) dimensions. India records superior scores in Human Capital (62.5 vs. 55.5) and Soft Power (68.7 vs. 61.8), suggesting latent assets whose conversion into strategic capability remains the central policy challenge. The paper situates these quantitative findings within the broader theoretical literature on power transition, argues that the gap is structurally significant but not irreversible, and derives policy implications for India’s long-run strategic posture. |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fhgzj_v1 |