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on South East Asia |
| By: | Borengasser, Sophiea; Nalley, Lanier; McFadden, Brandon; Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Rider, Shelby |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360906 |
| By: | Jiaying Chen (Renmin University of China); Rhea Molato-Gayares (Asian Development Bank); Albert F. Park (Asian Development Bank); Donnie-Paul Tan (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Which poverty context matters for long-term outcomes—family or community, economic or social? We construct a measure of poverty along these dimensions and analyze individual-level longitudinal data spanning 21 years in Indonesia to examine the long-term outcomes associated with different types of deprivation experienced in childhood. We find that adverse outcomes in adulthood are associated not only with growing up in a poor family but also in a poor community. Family poverty generally has a stronger influence than community poverty, except for health and life satisfaction, which are shaped more by the community. We also find that both economic and social domains matter, with the economic domain’s influence being stronger. Girls’ education suffers more from exposure to early deprivations, whereas boys’ health is hit harder. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for different dimensions of childhood deprivation, and they have strong policy implications for addressing inequality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | poverty;inequality;neighborhood effects;childhood;gender |
| JEL: | I32 R23 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022034 |
| By: | Rajat Kathuria; Neha Gupta |
| Abstract: | Two decades after India began pursuing trade liberalisation through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), the country remains divided over their economic value and strategic implications. India now stands at a crossroads: whether to deepen engagement with mega-regional trade frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), or to continue a cautious, selective approach. This paper examines India's trade performance with existing agreement partners – particularly ASEAN – to reassess prevailing concerns around trade deficits and competitiveness. The analysis shows that India's trade deficits are often overstated and misunderstood. Much of the deficit reflects increased imports of intermediate goods, which can enhance export competitiveness by strengthening forward and backward linkages in regional value chains. India has maintained trade surpluses with several FTA partners, including within ASEAN, and its intermediate goods exports to East Asia have recently increased. Simulation results using the World Integrated Trade Solution's SMART model suggest that RCEP membership could significantly raise India’s imports, largely driven by China, while CPTPP participation would generate more balanced trade effects, with potential export gains to markets such as Mexico, Canada, and Australia. Beyond trade flows, the paper argues that selective engagement with mega-regional agreements – particularly the CPTPP – can serve as a policy anchor for improving India's business environment, regulatory coherence, and investment climate. The study proposes a framework for inclusive liberalisation that combines calibrated trade openness with domestic reforms, adjustment safeguards, and sequencing, enabling India to enhance competitiveness while managing distributional and structural risks. |
| Keywords: | Trade Agreements; RCEP; CPTPP; India and ASEAN; Trade Deficit; India and CPTPP; RTAs; India’s exports; SMART Simulation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F17 F53 O19 |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-10 |
| By: | Alibhai, Salman; Breza, Emily; Kanz, Martin; Strobbe, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rise of fintech lending in Indonesia, using a dataset of more than 139, 000 individual credit records representative of the full spectrum of consumer loans in the country. The analysis reveals that fintech lending has become deeply embedded in Indonesia’s financial landscape, with more than 40 percent of borrowers holding at least one fintech loan at the end of the sample period. While digital lenders have expanded financial inclusion by reaching significant numbers of previously unbanked households, they remain limited in their geographical reach, primarily finance consumption, and account for only a small share of total consumer credit. Over time, a substantial share of borrowers transition from high-interest fintech loans to more affordable conventional credit. However, this expansion of access brings new challenges: default rates among borrowers who obtain their first loan from a digital lender are 5 to 7 percentage points higher than among borrowers who start with non-fintech loans, and elevated default risks persist even after borrowers graduate to lower-interest rate conventional credit. The paper concludes by assessing the effects of recent regulatory reforms --such as interest rate caps and harmonized reporting standards for digital and conventional loans-- and offers policy recommendations to maximize the benefits of digital financial inclusion while safeguarding credit market stability and financial consumer protection. |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11300 |
| By: | Nattanicha Chairassamee; Kanokwan Chancharoenchai; Pattrapa Tangtatswas |
| Abstract: | The growing financial fraud issue has negatively impacted the psychological well-being of the general public, particularly those who have fallen victim to such scams. This study aims to collect data to examine and understand the factors influencing decision-making and victimization in various types of online financial fraud in Thailand. By using the framing effect through greedy emotions and time pressure, our results indicate that the emotions experienced during scam encounters play a significant role in determining online financial fraud victimization. Since emotions directly influence System 1 decision-making, our study suggests that merely educating and building public awareness may not be effective in preventing long-term online scam victimization. |
| Keywords: | Emotion; Financial decision; Online financial scam; Personality traits |
| JEL: | D91 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:245 |
| By: | Shigeharu Okajima (Department of Economics, Osaka University of Economics. 2-2-8, Osumi, Higashiyodogawa-ku, Osaka, 533-8533, Japan.); Hiroko Okajima (School of Economics, Nagoya University. Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan.); Yoshito Nakayama (Department of Economics, Osaka University of Economics. 2-2-8, Osumi, Higashiyodogawa-ku, Osaka, 533-8533, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | This study quantitatively assesses the negative externalities of geothermal power plants by analyzing their impact on local land values in Japan. Using a hedonic pricing approach and a difference-in- differences framework, the analysis finds that land prices within a 2 km radius of a geothermal power plant declined by approximately 7% to 12% after their installation, even after accounting for various fixed effects and robustness checks. The study utilizes data on all 28 large-scale geothermal power plants with a capacity of at least 1, 000 kilowatts that were operational in Japan as of 2018, covering a 42-year period from 1983 to 2024. The findings highlight the complex interplay between renewable energy expansion and local economic conditions, emphasizing the need to balance the benefits of clean energy with local stakeholders’ concerns to ensure a sustainable energy transition in Japan. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy, geothermal power, hedonic analysis, negative externality |
| JEL: | Q24 Q42 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2505 |
| By: | Eto, Takeru (JX Press Corporation) |
| Abstract: | Japan is currently engaged in three major territorial disputes: the Northern Territories, Takeshima, and the Senkaku Islands. While official government surveys consistently report high levels of public concern, respondents may overstate their engagement due to social desirability bias. To address this, this paper employs a list experiment through an online opt-in survey of 4, 500 Japanese citizens to estimate the proportion of the population that is privately indifferent to each dispute. Using AMEs from an ICT regression model, the results reveal substantial levels of hidden indifference: approximately 19% for Takeshima, 11% for the Senkaku Islands, and 5% for the Northern Territories. Crucially, this indifference is not randomly distributed but is systematically structured by socioeconomic and geographic factors. The analysis shows that indifference is significantly higher among individuals in precarious employment. Furthermore, residents of metropolitan areas, such as Tokyo and Kinki region, exhibit greater indifference toward Takeshima and the Senkaku Islands, while people in closer proximity to these territories tend to be more engaged. Interestingly, however, residents in Hokkaido, the region closest to the Northern Territories, exhibit higher latent indifference than the national average, potentially indicating a divergence between local pragmatic interests and national narratives. These findings challenge the conventional view of a uniformly concerned public and suggest that domestic political constraints on diplomatic compromise may be more flexible than commonly assumed. |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nzbq3_v1 |
| By: | Ei Phyu Kyi; Tao Feng; Jieyuan Lan; Ying Liu |
| Abstract: | The potential for drone delivery services to transform logistics systems and consumer behavior has gained increasing attention. However, comprehensive empirical evidence on consumer delivery choice behavior within the context of transportation and urban air logistics remains limited, particularly in Japan. This study addresses this gap by examining Japanese consumers' preferences and behavioral intentions toward drone delivery services. Using a stated preference (SP) survey and discrete choice modeling approaches, including multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (MMNL) models, the analysis evaluates how delivery cost, delivery time, drop-off location, product type, and social influence affect delivery mode choices across different demographic groups. The results indicate that although consumers express interest in drone delivery, perceived cost and concerns related to reliability continue to constrain adoption. Younger and male consumers exhibit higher preferences for drone delivery, while product type, particularly daily consumer goods and medical or healthcare items, plays a significant role in shaping preferences. Post-estimation willingness-to-pay and elasticity analyses further highlight consumers' sensitivity to delivery pricing and speed attributes. Overall, the findings provide actionable insights for logistics service providers and policymakers regarding pricing strategies, service targeting, and deployment approaches for integrating drone delivery into Japan's evolving logistics system. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08660 |
| By: | Liu, Zhen |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of supermarkets is modernizing grain value chains in developing countries; however, its implications for grain farmers remain underexplored. This study introduces a location based framework and examines how supermarket expansion affects farmer income and resource allocation, using a panel of 5, 221 grain farmers in China from 2006 to 2015. The results show no effects on grain income at the aggregate level, but significant variation across locations. Remote farmers earn higher grain income due to increased farm-gate prices, greater commercialization, and more resources allocated to grain production. In contrast, peri-urban farmers experience losses in grain income, but manage to compensate for these losses through shifting to off-farm work. Our findings highlight a spontaneous transformation among farmers driven by adaptive diversification strategies in response to supermarket expansion, offering insights for agricultural and retail policies in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360615 |
| By: | Perkins, O. |
| Abstract: | Using a novel rational choice framework, this paper examines the causal effects of pastors on church growth in rural India. Utilising high-quality primary survey data from 559 Indian pastors, the analysis employs instrumental variable and multivariate regression techniques. This is the first economics paper focused outside the West to find evidence that the attributes of religious leaders help determine religious switching and the first to show a higher emphasis on supernatural experiences from religious leaders can cause faster church growth. |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2602 |
| By: | Shubhangi, Tanaya |
| Abstract: | This study is an empirical analysis into the causal claim that India’s National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), despite being an ambient air pollution policy is able to bring down industrial emissions. Using a panel dataset of Indian cities from 2011-2022 and by employing a Synthetic Differences-in-differences (SDID) approach, the study measures the causal impact of NCAP on industrial emissions, proxied by PM10 levels, to answer this question. The SDID model is particularly suited for this analysis as it creates a robust, data-driven counterfactual from a small control group. Results indicate NCAP caused a significant reduction in PM10 concentrations, with an estimated average treatment effect of −14.05 𝜇𝑔/𝑚3. This result suggests well-designed ambient regulations can be a cost-effective policy tool for pollution mitigation in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360766 |
| By: | Fukuta, Kento; Sakaki, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | The relationship between Japan and China is of far-reaching importance for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, as the two countries are the world's fourth- and second-largest economies, respectively. Over the past 15 years, bilateral tensions have deepened markedly, even as the two countries have maintained close economic ties. During the one-year tenure of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (October 2024-October 2025), however, there were signs of a modest thaw in relations. In November 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the relationship as being "in a critical phase of improvement and development". His statement was followed by a series of diplomatic exchanges and Beijing even agreed to lift import restrictions on Japanese fishery products and beef. Yet, the thaw remained limited. Beijing has reverted to a confrontational posture following remarks on Taiwan by Japan's new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in early November. The relationship remains fragile. |
| Keywords: | Sino-Japanese relationship, Japan-China relations, Indo-Pacific, Ishiba Shigeru, Xi Jinping, Takaichi Sanae, geopolitical rivalry, security tensions, territorial dispute, Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands, South China Sea, Taiwan, escalation, trade relations, US, Donald Trump, Germany, Europe, G7 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334571 |
| By: | Yang, Chengji; Guo, Hongdong |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic impact of Agricultural Regional Public Brands (ARPBs) using panel data from 2, 725 Chinese counties (2000- 2020). A difference-in-differences (DID) approach with fixed effects identifies the causal impact of ARPB adoption. Results show that ARPBs significantly enhance county-level GDP, especially in livestock-oriented regions with stronger industrial linkages. Mechanism analyses reveal that ARPBs promote economic growth by upgrading employment structures, facilitating urban-rural integration, and encouraging agricultural modernization. Regional heterogeneity suggests that eastern and central regions benefit more than western ones, likely due to infrastructure and market access differences. The effects of reducing the urban-rural income gap are limited. These findings provide policy-relevant insights into how place-based branding can promote inclusive rural development. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360602 |
| By: | Kartiki Verma (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi); Sunil Kanwar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the strengthening of intellectual property rights (IPR) on industry-level outcomes such as sales, innovation, and profitability in India, for the period 1990-2020. We first construct a novel industry-specific IPR implementation index that reflects de facto enforcement across 27 two-digit industries. Industry outcomes are then modelled using industry data at the two-digit level. The empirical results reveal significant heterogeneity in the effects of IPR regimes. Stronger IPR protection disproportionately benefits firms with higher R&D intensity, amplifying both R&D investment and profitability, with robustness checks confirming consistency across alternative specifications. However, the gains from IPR protection are less pronounced for firms heavily engaged in innovation. This interaction may also reflect a strategic shift in firm behavior rather than a decline in performance. IPR reform positively affect R&D and profitability, particularly in pharmaceuticals and advanced manufacturing. The strengthening of IPR is a powerful driver of performance when paired with internal innovation capacity, highlighting the critical role of absorptive capacity |
| Keywords: | Intellectual property rights, enforcement, de facto index, industry JEL codes: O34, C43, K11, L16 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:360 |
| By: | Philip Oreopoulos; Oliver Keyes-Krysakowski; Deepak Agarwal |
| Abstract: | Computer-assisted learning (CAL) platforms frequently underperform at scale not because the technology is ineffective, but because schools face substantial implementation frictions: teachers and administrators must overcome initial technical hurdles, reorganize instructional routines, manage competing scheduling pressures, and do so while uncertain about the technology’s effectiveness—conditions that often lead to low and unproductive student engagement. This study explores whether strengthening implementation structure can raise both the quantity and quality of CAL usage in 83 residential government middle schools in Uttar Pradesh, India and, in turn, learning gains. All schools had access to Khan Academy, but randomly selected treatment schools received on-the-ground lab-in-charges whose sole responsibility was to ensure high-fidelity implementation by securing reliable connectivity, simplifying student rostering, protecting weekly practice time, supervising in-class use, coordinating content with teachers, and monitoring progress. The intervention increased platform usage from 7.2 to 47.4 minutes per week. Mathematics achievement rose by almost half a standard deviation over 31 weeks, with gains broad-based across achievement levels and question difficulty. These results show that the central constraint on effective and scalable CAL is not technology or content, but the presence of organizational structures that ensure sustained, productive instructional use. |
| JEL: | I2 I25 I3 O2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34683 |
| By: | Horioka, Charles Yuji |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the age structure of the population on the household saving rate using time-series data for Japan for the 1955-2019 period. It finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between Japan's household saving rate and her dependency ratio (the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population) and that the latter has a negative and statistically significant impact on the former. This implies that the life-cycle model applies in the case of Japan, that trends over time in the age structure of Japan's population can largely explain trends over time in Japan's household saving rate, that the downward trend in Japan's household saving rate since the mid-1970s can largely be explained by the aging of her population, and that further population aging will lead to further declines in Japan's household saving rate, most likely into negative territory, in future years. |
| Keywords: | age structure of the population, cointegration, cointegrating vector, household saving, Japan, life-cycle hypothesis, life-cycle model, population aging, saving rate, unit roots |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D15 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000258 |