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on South East Asia |
| By: | Junlin Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how institutional learning and regional spillovers shape volatility dynamics in ASEAN equity markets. Using daily data for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 2010 to 2024, we construct a high-frequency institutional learning index via a MIDAS-EPU approach. Unlike existing studies that treat institutional quality as a static background characteristic, this paper models institutions as a dynamic mechanism that reacts to policy shocks, information pressure, and crisis events. Building on this perspective, we introduce two new volatility frameworks: the Institutional Response Dynamics Model (IRDM), which embeds crisis memory, policy shocks, and information flows; and the Network-Integrated IRDM (N-IRDM), which incorporates dynamic-correlation and institutional-similarity networks to capture cross-market transmission. Empirical results show that institutional learning amplifies short-run sensitivity to shocks yet accelerates post-crisis normalization. Crisis-memory terms explain prolonged volatility clustering, while network interactions improve tail behavior and short-horizon forecasts. Robustness checks using placebo and lagged networks indicate that spillovers reflect a strong regional common factor rather than dependence on specific correlation topologies. Diebold-Mariano and ENCNEW tests confirm that the N-IRDM significantly outperforms baseline GARCH benchmarks. The findings highlight a dual role of institutions and offer policy insights on transparency enhancement, macroprudential communication, and coordinated regional governance. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.19824 |
| By: | Daniela Cubas (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of the living income (family living expenses) and living wage for rural areas of Rembang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia, an important tobacco-growing region. The update for June 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker Living Income and Living Wage Study conducted in April–May 2024 (Pramudya et al., 2024). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living income, living wage, Anker Methodology, Rembang, Central Java, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250458 |
| By: | Huy Le Vu (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)); Tuong-Vy Phan (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)) |
| Abstract: | Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria have become increasingly important to the strategic development of enterprises, yet evidence on their tangible impacts—particularly in emerging economies—remains limited. This study examines the causal effects of ESG implementation among Vietnam’s top 20 ESG-leading firms between 2016 and 2022 and investigates whether these ``superstar†firms generate spillover effects on nearby businesses. Using firm-level data from the Vietnam Enterprise Survey and applying propensity score matching (PSM), we find that ESG adoption significantly improves productivity, technical efficiency, and revenue among leading firms. Moreover, positive spillovers extend to geographically proximate firms across sectors, contributing to higher household incomes at the district level. However, these socioeconomic gains come with an unintended consequence: districts benefiting from ESG spillovers also experience a substantial rise in CO2 emissions. This highlights a central trade-off—ESG-driven growth may stimulate economic improvements while simultaneously intensifying environmental pressures. Our findings suggest that ESG adoption matters, but its broader impacts depend critically on whether complementary environmental policies are in place to prevent economic benefits from being offset by increased ecological costs. |
| Keywords: | ESG, PSM, firm performance, growth-environment trade-off Braam Geert J.M. , Uit de Weerd Lisanne , Hauck Mara , Huijbregts Mark A.J. . 2016 . Determinants of corporate environmental reporting: the importance of environmental performance and assurance . Journal of Cleaner Production 129 : 724 - 734 . Camilleri Mark Anthony . 2015 . Environmental, social and governance disclosures in Europe . Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal 6 : 224 - 242 . Fontana Stefano , D'Amico Eugenio , Coluccia Daniela , Solimene Silvia . 2015 . Does environmental performance affect companies' environmental disclosure? . Measuring Business Excellence 19 : 42 - 57 . Giannarakis Grigoris , Konteos George , Sariannidis Nikolaos . 2014 . Financial, governance and environmental determinants of corporate social responsible disclosure . Management Decision 52 : 1928 - 1951 . Wirth Herbert , Kulczycka Joanna , Hausner Jerzy , KoÅ„ski Maciej . 2016 . Corporate Social Responsibility: Communication about social and environmental disclosure by large and small copper mining companies . Resources Policy 49 : 53 - 60 . Hoang Trang Cam , Abeysekera Indra , Ma Shiguang . 2016 . Board Diversity and Corporate Social Disclosure: Evidence from Vietnam . Journal of Business Ethics 151 : 833 - 852 . Cho Charles H , Michelon Giovanna , Patten Dennis M , Roberts Robin W . 2015 . CSR disclosure: the more things change…? . Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal 28 : 14 - 35 . Achim Monica-Violeta , Borlea Sorin Nicolae . 2015 . Developing of ESG Score to Assess the Non-financial Performances in Romanian Companies . Procedia Economics and Finance 32 : 1209 - 1224 . Auer Benjamin R. , Schuhmacher Frank . 2016 . Do socially (ir)responsible investments pay? New evidence from international ESG data . The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 59 : 51 - 62 . Sassen Remmer , Hinze Anne-Kathrin , Hardeck Inga . 2016 . Impact of ESG factors on firm risk in Europe . Journal of Business Economics 86 : 867 - 904 . Rose Caspar . 2016 . Firm performance and comply or explain disclosure in corporate governance . European Management Journal 34 : 202 - 222 . Garcia Alexandre Sanches , Mendes-Da-Silva Wesley , Orsato Renato J. . 2017 . Sensitive industries produce better ESG performance: Evidence from emerging markets . Journal of Cleaner Production 150 : 135 - 147 . Chelawat Hemlata , Trivedi Indra Vardhan . 2016 . The business value of ESG performance: the Indian context . Asian Journal of Business Ethics 5 : 195 - 210 . van Duuren Emiel , Plantinga Auke , Scholtens Bert . 2015 . ESG Integration and the Investment Management Process: Fundamental Investing Reinvented . Journal of Business Ethics 138 : 525 - 533 . Al-Tuwaijri Sulaiman A , Christensen Theodore E , Hughes Ii KE . 2004 . The relations among environmental disclosure, environmental performance, and economic performance: a simultaneous equations approach . Accounting, organizations and society 29 : 447 - 471 . Bouslah Kais , Kryzanowski Lawrence , M'Zali Bouchra . 2016 . Social Performance and Firm Risk: Impact of the Financial Crisis . Journal of Business Ethics 149 : 643 - 669 . Fatemi Ali , Glaum Martin , Kaiser Stefanie . 2018 . ESG performance and firm value: The moderating role of disclosure . Global Finance Journal 38 : 45 - 64 . Capelle-Blancard Gunther , Petit Aurélien . 2019 . Every Little Helps? ESG News and Stock Market Reaction . Journal of Business Ethics 157 : 543 - 565 . Crifo Patricia , Diaye Marc-Arthur , Oueghlissi Rim . 2017 . The effect of countries' ESG ratings on their sovereign borrowing costs . The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 66 : 13 - 20 . Lee Dongyoung . 2015 . Corporate Social Responsibility and Management Forecast Accuracy . Journal of Business Ethics 140 : 353 - 367 . Azmi Wajahat , Hassan M. Kabir , Houston Reza , Karim Mohammad Sydul . 2021 . ESG activities and banking performance: International evidence from emerging economies . Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 70 : 101277 . Bui Hang Thi Thu . 2021 . The relationship between corporate social responsibility and corporate financial performance: an empirical study of commercial banks in Vietnam . The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business 8 : 373 - 383 . Tran Quoc Thinh , Vo Thi Diu , Le Xuan Thuy . 2021 . Relationship between profitability and corporate social responsibility disclosure: Evidence from Vietnamese listed banks . The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business 8 : 875 - 883 . Nguyen Thu , Phi Tuong , Dong Chung , Hoang Hong Minh , Nguyen Hien , Nguyen Minh Tri . 2023 . Assessing Vietnam's Progress towards Sustainable Development Goals: A Comprehensive Review . KIEP Research Paper : 23 - 02 . PWC . 2025 . Beyond compliance: The ESG Reinvention for Business in Vietnam . PWC . Friedlingstein Pierre , O'sullivan Michael , Jones Matthew W , Andrew Robbie M , Hauck Judith , Landschützer Peter , Le Quéré Corinne , Li Hongmei , Luijkx Ingrid T , Olsen Are , others . 2024 . Global carbon budget 2024 . Earth System Science Data Discussions 2024 : 1 - 133 . |
| JEL: | Q56 L25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:wp194 |
| By: | Bhandari, Thaneshwar; Gauchan, Devendra; Gurung, Tek Bahadur; Thapa, Yam Bahadur; Panta, Hari Krishna; Pathak, Santosh |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Marketing |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343826 |
| By: | Piyaporn Chote; Ms. Corinne C Delechat; Mr. Seunghwan Kim; Ying Xu; Tamon Yungvichit |
| Abstract: | This study examines the nexus between inequality, household debt, and social protection in Thailand, focusing on their interrelation during the COVID-19 shock. Using data from the Thailand Household Socio-Economic Surveys of 2019, 2021, and 2023, we apply the Recentered Influence Function regression and decomposition method to identify the drivers of inequality in Thailand and demonstrate how the pandemic, despite its severe economic impact, led to a decline in income inequality through these drivers. Our analysis highlights the role of social protection, showing that social assistance helped reduce income inequality, while social insurance exerted the opposite effect in Thailand. Additionally, we investigate how income inequality and disparities in acess to social protection affected household debt dynamics during the pandemic. Our findings show that lower-income households were more likely to be indebted following the pandemic, possbly reflecting increased income shortfalls. Social assistance alleviated the pandemic’s effects on household debt by easing income constraints, whereas social insurance exacerbated them. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; inequality; household debt; social protection |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/248 |
| By: | Lele, Uma |
| Abstract: | Attention to women’s economic participation is relatively new, although women constitute half the global population; with their increasing role in labor markets, they play an important role in the economies of developed countries. This paper focuses on the determinants of female labor force participation in India. Examining the structural transformation (ST) framework from agricultural to nonagricultural sectors, comparisons are made to other countries including, particularly, China. Although growing in recent years, women’s participation in India is shown to be low in the formal sector, lower than in neighboring Asian countries and developed countries. Six factors influencing female labor force participation in India are reviewed: (1) development strategy, including the extent of labor intensity and skills development; (2) demographic transition; (3) sociopolitical and cultural factors, including policies pursued in the process of modernization of traditional gender roles and religion; (4) insufficient investment in vocational education and training; (5) insufficient quantity and quality of childcare facilities; and (6) concern for women’s safety and their limited mobility. Some policy implications are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344351 |
| By: | Jeonghwan Choi (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The need for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Japan and South Korea as a proactive response to challenges in the global trade environment, including rising protectionism and the realignment of global value and supply chains, has never been more evident. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to serve as a benchmark for FTA negotiations, making it necessary to analyze how bilateral trade structures would change under a CPTPP-level agreement. An FTA modeled on the CPTPP would accelerate the elimination of existing bilateral import tariffs, which are currently being phased out gradually.<p> From Korea’s perspective, eliminating tariffs on imports of Japanese petrochemicals, electronics, and automobiles could drive increased imports of these goods. However, lower Japanese tariffs on Korean exports such as petrochemicals, plastics, and metals are not likely to generate substantial export growth for Korea, making it essential that Korea prepare for the potential negative impacts of a wider trade deficit with Japan.<p> The benefits of an FTA must therefore be assessed holistically, looking beyond the simple metric of the trade balance. Rather than being treated as a standalone measure, the FTA should be understood as part of a broader policy package designed to prevent and manage economic friction while ensuring stable cooperation on key emerging trade issues. |
| Keywords: | Korea; Japan; Free Trade Agreement; FTA; Korea-Japan FTA; FTAs; FTA negotiations; trade talks; economic cooperation; trade cooperation; trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F55 |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:021813 |
| By: | Tao, Guannan; Yan, Sanjiu; Zhou, Yuxiao |
| Abstract: | As a characteristic barrage video website with ACG-related content as the dominant factor, Bilibili, the largest platform in China, exhibits a high level of interactivity. From the perspective of "people - objects - scenarios, " this study employs a two-stage SEM-ANN method based on the push-pull theory and combines artificial neural networks. It utilizes the structural equation model to explore the driving influence factors of the growth in the number of Bilibili video fans. The total number of likes, coins, forwards, barrages, collections, and comments are employed as push influence factors, encompassing the testing of hypotheses regarding linear relationships in the compensation model and non-linear non-compensation relationships in the neural network model, along with multiple regression analysis. Python is utilized to obtain relevant data to study the impact of the average video playback volume on the growth of the number of fans. The average video update time, the section where the UP owner is located, the average video duration, and the total number of videos are used as pull factors to explore the impact of the total video playback volume on the growth of the number of fans. The research indicates that the above-mentioned push-pull influence factors are valid in driving the growth of the number of fans. Additionally, variable video recommendation indexes and the number of videos with likes or playback volumes exceeding 4% are added to the research model to explore the most significant and least influential growth driving factors among the push-pull factors. This provides a reference for the research on the fan economy of all platforms. |
| Keywords: | Fan economy Growth，Bilibili，Push-Pull Theory, Neural Network, Driving Factors |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331310 |
| By: | Ojha, Manini; Gupta, Sagnik Kumar; Dhamija, Gaurav |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the causal impact of women's exposure to the internet on their attitudes towards intimate partner violence (IPV) using data from the most recent round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). To address potential endogeneity, we exploit exogenous variation in district-level mobile tower density in India as an instrument for women's internet exposure. The instrumental variables estimation provides robust evidence that a woman's exposure to internet reduces her likelihood of justifying IPV by 21 percentage points. We also provide suggestive evidence that higher awareness and physical mobility are potential mechanisms through which internet exposure shapes attitudes. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of digital connectivity in challenging regressive gender norms. |
| Keywords: | Internet Exposure, Tower Density, Intimate Partner Violence, Attitudes, Instrumental Variable, NFHS, India |
| JEL: | C26 J12 J16 I30 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1696 |
| By: | Paul-Emile Bernard (University of Paris-Dauphine, PSL); Jie Li (University of Jinan, Guangzhou); Gary Ziwen Zu (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the Chinese government reallocated public resources to mitigate the effects of the U.S.–China trade war. Using a novel firm-level dataset linking tariff exposure with subsidies and procurement contracts between 2015 and 2020, we identify exogenous variation through a Bartik (shift–share) design based on pre-war trade patterns. In the first step, focusing on listed firms, we show that those more exposed to U.S. tariffs received significantly higher direct subsidies—about 7.7% more for a one-standard-deviation increase in exposure. Yet, support primarily targeted politically connected rather than productive firms, suggesting allocation distortions. In the second step, we extend the analysis to a broader panel including small and medium-sized firms using public procurement data. Local favoritism dominates: firms operating within their own jurisdiction received contracts roughly three times larger, especially when exposed to U.S. tariffs. Together, these findings reveal that both national and local authorities cushioned the trade shock through politically and territorially selective interventions. |
| Keywords: | Subsidy, Public Procurement, Trade War, Tariffs |
| JEL: | F13 F51 H25 H57 H70 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202509 |
| By: | Jared C. Carbone (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado, USA); Maxwell Fleming (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado, USA); Akio Yamazaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how demographic change affects the efficiency and equity of carbon pricing using an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of Japan. Demographic change erodes the tax base, so that the fiscal response has a larger impact on welfare than the carbon policy itself. We find that implementing a carbon policy during Japan’s projected population decline reduces welfare costs by 11% relative to a steady-state population, especially when revenues offset capital taxes. However, microsimulation indicates that low-income households face higher short-run welfare losses under policies that are most efficient in the long run, highlighting a trade-off between efficiency and progressivity. |
| Keywords: | Green fiscal reforms; Carbon pricing; Demographic changes |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-11 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Wang, Jingjing; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | Transforming diets is critical for sustainable food systems. While there have been increasing global discourses on healthy and sustainable diets, national and local actions often remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by focusing on China, the world’s largest developing country. We examine the specific challenges of defining healthy and sustainable diets for the Chinese population by considering regional dietary cultures, affordability, and environmental impact. We analyze how policy interventions, including both supply and consumer-side strategies, can promote the transition towards such diets. The findings can offer valuable lessons for other developing countries facing similar challenges. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344342 |
| By: | Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | The GST rates for numerous items were recently revised, with the updated rates coming into effect on 22 September 2025. In this paper, we aim to assess the impact of GST rate restructuring on consumers’ GST liability using the National Sample Survey Office’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2022-23. Depending on how rate reductions translate into lower prices, consumer behaviour is expected to change. Variations in the price and income elasticities of demand for goods and services will influence the size and composition of the consumption basket. However, we employ a static framework in which the price and income elasticities of demand for goods and services are assumed to remain constant from HCES 2022-23. Under these assumptions, the findings of this study suggest that GST liability on household consumption expenditure will decrease by 10% to 16% under the new GST rate structure compared to the previous one. The average GST liability rate will fall from 5-7% under the old structure to 4-6% under the new structure. We observe a one percentage point decline in GST liability across all MPCE fractile classes under the new GST rate structure compared to the old one. |
| Keywords: | Goods and Services Tax (GST) ; Rate restructuring ; household consumption expenditure ; India |
| JEL: | H22 D30 E21 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/440 |
| By: | Bhangaonkar, Rekha; Ranganathan, Thiagu |
| Abstract: | This study analyses differential resilience among horticultural farmers in Maharashtra, India. Based on a primary survey of 290 farmers across four villages in Jalna district, we find that farmers in the region shifted to grape cultivation over the past two decades as it provided a higher and more stable income compared to cotton. The recent years has seen depletion of groundwater table, a common pool resource and the primary source of irrigation for the farmers. In building resilience against groundwater risks, farmers resorted to water imports to satisfy irrigation requirements. With this background, we analyze the factors that affect tanker water use and the returns thereof. Our paper finds that intensity of tanker water use is inversely related to farm size indicating higher intensification of water imports among smallholding farmers. Our production function analysis indicates that both tanker use and expenditure on tanker water has no relation to horticultural production. Given the higher dependence on horticulture among the small and marginal farmers and that these farmers use tanker water extensively with no significant returns to production, our paper posits a case of differential resilience among farmers in the region. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344391 |
| By: | Bhagowalia, Priya; Chandna, Arjita |
| Abstract: | This study examines the association between women’s income and household nutrition using the India Human Development Survey (2005, 2011). Assuming that the household head and his/her spouse are the primary members who influence household nutrition, we explore the association between the primary woman’s income as a share of the total income of the primary couple, with household nutrition and diet diversity. The results show that the primary woman’s income share has a positive and significant association with household calorie intake especially with calories obtained from carbohydrates, but a significant negative association with calories from fats and no association with calories obtained from protein. Additionally, the positive association of the primary woman’s income share with household calorie intake is weaker in the presence of other educated women that have specific hierarchical relationship with the primary woman. The study thus underscores the importance of women’s relative bargaining power in improving household nutrition. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344312 |
| By: | Areef, Mulla; Radha, Yanamadala; Rajeswari, Seelam |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the welfare implications of traditional versus modern value chains on agricultural households in India, used a national representative farm-level dataset (NSSO-SAS) with 44, 770 agricultural households. Employing a multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) approach, our findings underscore the pivotal role of cultivation income, constituting 56.23% in adult equivalent terms, surpassing wages income (22.46%) among households engaged in both traditional and modern marketing channels. Moreover, households engaging in both traditional and modern marketing channels exhibit a remarkable 80 percent increase in overall household income compared to non-participating counterparts. Intriguingly, a noteworthy 19.57% savings from monthly income per adult is observed after fulfilling consumption expenditure needs. Those adopting a synergistic blend of traditional and modern channels experience a commendable 13 percent surge in monthly consumption expenditure compared to non-participating peers. These results underscore the significant benefits of diversifying marketing channels within the agricultural sector. Given these trends, advocating for policies promoting such diversification becomes imperative to enhance the well-being of agricultural households in India. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344385 |
| By: | Le-rong, YU; Jia-ming, GU |
| Abstract: | In the era of digital economy, it has become an important part of the digital transformation of the agricultural industry to promote the sound development of agricultural e-commerce. Based on sample data covering five provinces one municipality directly under the central government of China, the paper empirically analyzes the internal and external factors affecting online retail of agricultural products. The results show that park policies, business environment, market and other external factors significantly affect the online retail performance of agricultural products under the condition of controlling the characteristics of individual operators and products. However, the brand of agricultural products is still the key factor determining online retail performance. In addition, the mediating effects of new media communication on the relationship between external factors and online sales of agricultural products was significant. The research results can provide reference for further exploring the roles of government, market and new media technologies in boosting the development of agricultural e-commerce. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344310 |
| By: | Jared C. Carbone (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Maxwell Fleming (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Akio Yamazaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) |
| Abstract: | How does carbon pricing perform in an economy with a declining population growth? We develop an overlapping generations model calibrated to Japan. Using this model, we examine how demographic change interacts with green fiscal reforms, in which revenues from carbon pricing are used to improve the efficiency of the tax system. Our results show that demographic change erodes the tax base, so the fiscal response has a larger impact on welfare than the carbon policy itself. Relative to a constant population growth benchmark, ignoring demographic change can overestimate the welfare costs of carbon pricing by 11 percent when pension benefits are reduced and carbon revenues are used to cut capital taxes. Microsimulation analysis indicates that low-income households face higher short-run welfare losses under policies that are most efficient in the long-run, highlighting a trade-off between efficiency and progressivity in the design of carbon pricing in aging economies. |
| Keywords: | green fiscal reforms, carbon pricing, demographic change |
| JEL: | H22 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp202503 |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Gupta, Tanu (University of Southampton); Heath, Rachel (University of Washington); Mahajan, Kanika (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | We study how the design of vocational skill training programs impacts labor market outcomes, including occupational choice. Women applicants to skill training centres in India are randomized into either a vocational training (VT) program that combines sector-specific hard skills with on-the-job training, or VT plus Project-Based Experiential Learning that incorporates digital skills (VTP), or a control group which is not enrolled into any skill training. Almost a year after the start of the intervention, the nature of employment shifts towards the women's preferred sector, leading to higher self-employed work and earnings therein. These positive effects are observed only for the VTP group, whose usage of social media for business purposes increases due to the intervention. At the same time, satisfaction levels of women assigned to VTP training rise on multiple dimensions. Our findings highlight the role of complementary sector-specific skills in enhancing the impact of vocational training. |
| Keywords: | on-the-job training, digital skills, vocational skilling, self-employment, women, India |
| JEL: | J24 J44 J62 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18272 |
| By: | HARA, Yasushi |
| Abstract: | This study revisits the impact of customer concentration on the performance and survival of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) by proposing an integrated “Quantity-Quality-Structure” framework. Utilizing a large-scale panel dataset of Japanese manufacturing SMEs, we employ rigorous empirical methods—including two-way fixed-effects models with controls for export status, Cox proportional hazards models, and dynamic event studies—to disentangle the complex effects of inter-firm relationships. While the static relationship between customer concentration (Quantity) and sales growth is found to be inconsistent across industries, our survival analysis reveals a robust and critical finding: high concentration significantly increases the risk of firm exit, supporting the vulnerability tenet of Resource Dependency Theory. Conversely, simple network connectivity (Degree Centrality) acts as a powerful buffer, significantly reducing exit risk and functioning as “structural insurance, ” whereas network brokerage (Betweenness Centrality) can exacerbate risks in certain assembly industries. Furthermore, dynamic analyses of strategic change reveal that firms “decoupling” from major customers face a multiyear “danger zone” of increased vulnerability before achieving diversification. Successful growth strategies are shown to be driven not by expanding existing B2B ties, but by a strategic pivot to new market types, specifically direct-to-consumer (B2C) segments. These findings reframe the debate on customer concentration from one of performance optimization to one of existential risk management and dynamic adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Customer Concentration, Firm Survival, Inter-firm Networks, Strategic Adaptation, SMEs |
| JEL: | L14 L25 M10 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:e-2025-02 |