|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Manh-Duc Doan (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment–the Vietnam-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)–I investigate the impact of trade liberalization on children's human capital investment in Vietnam. Using regional variation in export tariff uncertainty due to the BTA, I find that children in provinces more exposed to tariff reductions were more likely to engage in work rather than attend school, and this effect persisted for 20 years after the BTA. Additionally, the effects were more pronounced among boys, older children, rural children, and those with less-educated parents. These negative effects are driven by the increase in job opportunities, i.e., the child labor incidence, and the wage premium in the higher exposure provinces. The findings indicate that trade liberalization has increased the opportunity cost of education. These results remain robust across various alternative estimations. |
| Keywords: | trade agreement, tariff reduction, schooling, child labor, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0125 |
| By: | Permana, Muhammad Yorga |
| Abstract: | This article explores how ride‐hailing drivers, couriers, and food‐delivery riders in Indonesia exercised labour agency to improve their working conditions during the Covid‐19 pandemic. Drawing on a survey (N = 997) and in‐depth interviews (N = 30) with gig drivers in Jakarta, it contributes to labour geography and employment relations literature by reconceptualizing labour agency in the gig economy. Four modes of agency are proposed: (1) Individual resilience, (2) Individual reworking and resistance, (3) Collective resilience, and (4) Collective reworking and resistance. This article further presents main obstacles that explain why not all workers may exercise these practices: Fear of potential platform counteraction and moral dilemma hindered workers from resisting the platform. Identity struggles concerning the ‘driver‐partner’ status and the competitive nature of the platform work prevented workers' involvement in collective agency. Meanwhile, free rider problem, fragmented and leaderless movement, and collective frustration posed challenges for workers in translating collective feeling into active solidarity. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; labour agency; labour geography; gig economy; resistance; ride‐hailing |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130109 |
| By: | Balboni, Clare; Burgess, Robin; Olken, Benjamin A. |
| Abstract: | Environmental externalities – uncompensated damages imposed on others – lie at the root of climate change, pollution, deforestation and biodiversity loss. Empirical evidence is limited, however, as to how externalities drive private decision making. We study one such behavior, illegal tropical forest fires, using 15 years of daily satellite data covering over 107, 000 fires across Indonesia. Weather-induced variation in fire spread risk and variation in who owns surrounding land allow us to identify how far externalities influence the decision to use fire. Relative to when all spread risks are internalized, we find that firms overuse fire when surrounded by unleased government lands where property rights are weak. In contrast, and consistent with the Coase Theorem, firms treat risks to nearby private concessions similarly to risks to their own land. Government sanctions, concentrated on fires spreading to populated areas, also deter fires, consistent with Pigouvian deterrence. |
| Keywords: | externalities; Indonesia; forest fires; wildfires; deforestation; environment; conservation; remote sensing; climate change |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 O13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126393 |
| By: | Bryan, Gharad; Chowdhury, Shyamal; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Morten, Melanie; Smits, Joeri |
| Abstract: | Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty or advance social goals by encouraging desirable behavior that recipients under-invest in. An unintended consequence of conditionality may be the distortion of recipients’ behavior in ways that lower welfare. We first illustrate a range of potential distortions arising from CCT programs around the world. We then show that in the simple case where a CCT causes low return participants to select into a behavior, and social returns and private perceived returns are aligned, transfer size plays an important role: the larger the transfer, the stronger the distortion becomes, implying that (i) there is an optimal transfer size for such CCTs, and (ii) unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may be better than CCTs when the transfer amount is large. We provide empirical evidence consistent with these claims by studying a cash transfer program conditional on seasonal labor migration in rural Indonesia. In line with theory, we show that when the transfer size exceeds the amount required for travel expenses, distortionary effects dominate and migration earnings decrease. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers; distortion; seasonal migration |
| JEL: | J48 I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120638 |
| By: | Learmouth, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to our understanding of how Japan became the only Asian country to achieve sustained catch-up industrialisation before WWII. It does so by analysing the absorption of useful foreign knowledge in a traditional Japanese textile town and its subsequent evolution into a modern rubber manufacturing cluster. The cluster analysed is Kurume in Fukuoka Prefecture which began the interwar period as a major producer of cotton tabi (split-toed footwear). The core argument is that Kurume firms Nihon Tabi and Tsuchiya Tabi built on their foundations as large sewing factories by ‘borrowing capacity’ from general trading companies. This enabled them to evolve into large-scale rubber-soled footwear manufacturers capable of absorbing high-level engineering knowledge necessary to compete with Dunlop and US tyremakers in Asian motor tyre markets. A rich body of new primary material ranging from the corporate archives of Mitsui Bussan and Mitsubishi Shōji to regional industrial surveys is analysed using a novel conceptual framework. This framework draws upon Klepper’s (2010) heritage theory which suggests that best-practice industry knowledge is diffused out of leading firms. Integrated into this approach is Abe & Nakamura’s (2010) suggestion that the ‘indigenous industrialization process’ in Japan identified by Tanimoto (2006) was not separate from, but interacted with, the diffusion of Western-style manufacturing. |
| JEL: | L62 L65 N15 N75 N85 N95 O14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130283 |
| By: | Kimie Harada; Thanh Thi Phuong Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of phased exclusions from the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), introduced by the Tokyo Stock Exchange to gradually remove firms with extremely small free-float market capitalization. Using event study methodology, we analyse the market reactions to ten sequential index weight reductions implemented between 2022 and 2025. Our findings show that excluded firms experienced consistently negative abnormal returns, especially among the smallest and least liquid stocks. While previous research has documented stock price declines upon index exclusion, this study highlights that even under a phased exclusion system, the negative impact remains strong. Notably, the excluded firms in our sample are typically overlooked by analysts and investors, yet they still experienced substantial adverse effects. These results demonstrate that mechanical rebalancing by passive funds imposes significant costs on excluded firms, even though the overall effect on the index is minimal. Our findings carry policy implications for Asian equity markets, where major indices are also constructed from all listed stocks. If similar reforms were implemented in those markets, the same pattern of concentrated negative effects on individual stocks might be observed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e217 |
| By: | Aoki, Kosuke; Auerbach, Alan; Horioka, Charles Yuji; Kashyap, Anil; Watanabe, Tsutomu; Weinstein, David |
| Abstract: | Takatoshi Ito, who passed away in September 2025, was a leading scholar of macroeconomics and international finance. This column, written by a group of friends and colleagues, outlines his many contributions in a lifetime of research, teaching and policy-making in Japan, the United States and around the world. His work is particularly notable for challenging the widespread perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill- suited for understanding the Japanese economy. Indeed, using the discipline's rigorous tools, he illuminated challenges that Japan faced earlier and more acutely than other countries - including population decline and ageing, ballooning government debt, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policies, real estate bubbles and their collapse, and the banking sector's problem of non-performing loans. |
| Keywords: | Asian economies, exchange rate fluctuations, foreign exchange intervention, inflation targeting, international finance, , invoicing currency, Japanese economy, macroeconomics, monetary policy, Takatoshi Ito, zero interest rate policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F14 F31 G15 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000256 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Pillai, Shikha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs' (UNOOSA’s) 2025 Landmark Study, which documents women's 30 percent global workforce share in public space agencies—declining to 19 percent on boards—this paper applies gender budgeting framework to diagnose fiscal policy imperatives in the Department of Space (DoS), India. Aligning with the foundational principles of the UN Outer Space Treaty (1967), which mandates equitable benefits from space exploration "for all people, " and with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (quality education), 5 (gender equality), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), and 17 (partnerships for the goals), this analysis underscores the role of gender budgeting as a fiscal multiplier for inclusive growth in emerging space economies. Despite the absence of specifically targeted programmes for women in the space sector within the Ministry of Finance’s Gender Budgeting Statement 2025-26, our ex-post fiscal incidence analysis reveals that ISRO's significant achievements are inherently women-inclusive in their outcomes, despite workforce underrepresentation. We analysed the Space budgets across the space centres in India, and also across sanctioned Space projects to understand the fiscal incidence and marksmanship in space technology (e.g., launch vehicles, propulsion systems) and space applications (e.g., Earth observation, communication satellites). Key findings highlight marked variations in resource utilisation efficiency: utilisation rates ranged from a low of 10.9 percent at IN-SPACe—reflecting nascent private-sector integration challenges—to 21 percent at VSSC and 32 percent at URSC, where mature R&D pipelines drive higher absorption. Given the outcome of Space programmes including Earth Observation (EO) programmes and communication satellites for climate resilience have demographic than behavioural access, the units utilised patterns across income quintiles determine the fiscal incidence. Integrating results-linked gender budgeting into space policy thus emerges as a dual lever for equity—ensuring women's voice in high impact decision-making—and efficiency, by harnessing diverse perspectives to optimise resource allocation and innovation trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Gender budgeting ; space sector ; fiscal incidence ; Sustainable Development Goals |
| JEL: | H50 J16 O38 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/439 |
| By: | Siu Kei (Kelvi Wong; Yidi Yang; Lok Yiu Leung |
| Abstract: | Cross-border travel functions as a form of shopping tourism, fulfilling both individual economic needs and leisure pursuits while substantially contributing to the valuation of retail property—a critical subsector of real estate. As an international financial hub and China's Special Administrative Region (SAR), Hong Kong possesses a distinctive retail ecosystem tailored for cross-border consumption. The cross-border flow between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, its neighboring city within China's Greater Bay Area, has historically served as a vital socioeconomic connection, although it was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic due to public health precautions. This study investigates the impact of cross-border travel on the performance of Hong Kong’s retail property market, focusing on the periods before the pandemic-induced lockdown and after the reopening of border checkpoints. By analyzing retail property performance indicators and transaction data, our findings reveal that the retail property market is more strongly influenced by inbound travelers-specifically, mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong- than by outbound travelers, namely Hong Kong residents traveling to Shenzhen. In addition, the more significant price decline in shopping areas after the reopening suggests that the retail market performance is particularly sensitive to inbound travel. These findings offer policymakers actionable insights for designing tourism strategies to revitalize Hong Kong's retail sector. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Cross-border travel; Inbound travel; Retail property market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_249 |
| By: | Masayuki MORIKAWA |
| Abstract: | Using micro-level data on Japanese firms, this study analyzes the relationship between productivity and wages, with a focus on comparing aggregate-level and firm-level figures. The main findings are as follows. First, at the macro level, productivity growth and real wage growth are diverging, but, at the firm level, there is a strong positive relationship between productivity growth and wage growth, indicating that productivity and wages have not decoupled. Second, a divergence exists between simple average and aggregate (i.e., weighted average) wage trends, with aggregate real wages exhibiting a greater downward trend. Third, dynamic Olley-Pakes decomposition reveals that the covariance term contributes negatively to changes in real wages. In other words, the relationship between higher value-added share and higher wages at the firm level is weakening. In contrast, the covariance term has a large positive effect on productivity growth. These results suggest that while productivity growth is essential for raising real wages, policies that promote productivity through resource reallocation may conflict with those aimed at increasing labor’s share of value-added. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25106 |
| By: | Yishan Shi (University College Dublin); Kiyoshi Taniguchi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic costs of caregiving for women in Pakistan, with a focus on the caregiving wage penalty and its variation across the wage distribution and between urban and rural contexts. Using nationally representative data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2019–2020, the analysis combines Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions, and RIF–Oaxaca decompositions. PSM estimates indicate that female caregivers earn approximately 44% less than comparable non-caregivers, while OLS results confirm a penalty of around 48%. Extending the analysis to the intensive margin, each additional child is associated with a wage reduction of approximately 12%, although the effect diminishes with increasing family size. The presence of a young child (aged 0–6) results in a significant penalty, whereas the presence of older children does not affect earnings. RIF–OLS estimates reveal that penalties are not uniform: at the 10th quantile, caregivers earn 67%–73% less than noncaregivers, with the gap narrowing to about 21%–28% at the 90th quantile. The RIF– Oaxaca decomposition highlights a persistent rural disadvantage, with total rural–urban caregiving gaps ranging from 16% to 24%, driven by both weaker endowments (lower schooling and agricultural employment) and lower returns to those characteristics. These findings demonstrate that caregiving responsibilities impose a substantial and unequal wage penalty on women, with the heaviest burden falling on low-income and rural mothers. |
| Keywords: | women;gender inequality;wage penalty;child penalty;socioeconomic challenges;Pakistan;policy interventions |
| JEL: | J13 J31 O15 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021755 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how executive demographics—particularly age and gender—influence artificial intelligence (AI) investment decisions and subsequent firm productivity using comprehensive data from over 500 Japanese enterprises spanning 2018-2023. Our central research question addresses the role of executive characteristics in technology adoption, finding that CEO age and technical background significantly predict AI investment propensity. Employing these demographic characteristics as instrumental variables to address endogeneity concerns, we identify a statistically significant 2.4\% increase in total factor productivity attributable to AI investment adoption. Our novel mechanism decomposition framework reveals that productivity gains operate through three distinct channels: cost reduction (40\% of total effect), revenue enhancement (35\%), and innovation acceleration (25\%). The results demonstrate that younger executives (below 50 years) are 23\% more likely to adopt AI technologies, while firm size significantly moderates this relationship. Aggregate projections suggest potential GDP impacts of ¥1.15 trillion from widespread AI adoption across the Japanese economy. These findings provide crucial empirical guidance for understanding the human factors driving digital transformation and inform both corporate governance and public policy regarding AI investment incentives. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Executive Demographics, Technology Adoption, Productivity, Digital Transformation |
| JEL: | D24 L25 M12 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126734 |
| By: | Yidi Wang; Zhen Wang; Zan Yang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of flood risks on household financial decisions, with a focus on the default and repayment behavior and analyzes how their unrealistic optimism regarding Loan Prime Rate (LPR) transfer decisions affect credit loss during flood hazards. Through empirical analysis of loan data in China, we find that rural households who choose to switch to LPR are more likely to default after a flood, suggesting that these households are overly optimistic about their financial situations and underestimate the financial risks posed by floods. Additionally, the study finds that defaulted households adjust their financial expectations and exhibit more proactive repayment behaviors after the flood, highlighting that financial behavior is not static but adjusts based on real experiences such as the challenges posed by floods. Female and younger clients are more prone to defaults due to proactive risk-taking influenced by optimism, yet demonstrate improved repayment behaviors post-default, reflecting recalibrated financial strategies. The findings underscore the critical role of financial literacy and behavioral biases in mediating climate-related financial vulnerabilities. This study contributes to behavioral economics by linking environmental shocks to household financial resilience, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate optimism-driven risks in vulnerable populations. |
| Keywords: | flood risk; Mortgage Default; mortgage repayment; unrealistic optimism |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_248 |
| By: | Dhamija, Gaurav; Gupta, Sagnik Kumar; Ojha, Manini |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of women's exposure to the internet on the incidence of intimate partner violence (IPV) utilizing data from a large-scale nationally representative data for India. Utilizing an instrumental variable approach, we exploit the exogenous variation arising from cellular tower density at the district level as an instrument for internet exposure. We find women who have access to the internet are at a significantly lower risk of exposure to physical, sexual, emotional and any IPV by 17, 5, 9 and 18 percentage points.We provide further indicative evidence that women's attitudes justifying violence works as a channel of our estimated causal impacts. Our results are robust to a host of sensitivity checks, additional controls, alternative definitions and falsification analysis. We document important heterogeneity in the effects across social groups, wealth index, area of residence, and women's education levels. The effects appear to be particularly important for women from wealthier households and those who are more educated. |
| Keywords: | Internet Exposure, Tower Density, Intimate Partner Violence, Physical Violence, Sexual Violence, Emotional Violence, Instrumental Variable, NFHS-5, India |
| JEL: | I31 J12 J16 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1690 |
| By: | Patrick Hendy (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | China's ageing population is expected to slow the country's economic growth in coming years. Population ageing can have a negative effect on a country's growth due to the decline in the working-age population relative to the dependent population, and could cause decreased labour productivity growth, as has been the case in other countries which have experienced similar demographic shifts. This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of ageing on GDP per capita growth in China using data among China's provinces. I find that over 10 years a 10 per cent increase in the proportion of the population aged over 60 decreases nominal GDP per capita by around 7 per cent, all other things equal. These estimates imply that an ageing population has placed downward pressure on China's economic growth in the 2010s and 2020s so far, with this pressure likely to continue in the coming years. Authorities have so far responded to this challenge by increasing retirement ages and introducing policies such as a nationwide childcare subsidy. Different sectors in the economy are not likely to be affected uniformly by population ageing. I find that an increase in the old-age ratio increases the contribution of services (excluding real estate) to output, and decreases the contribution of construction. |
| Keywords: | China; demographics; economic growth |
| JEL: | J11 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-08 |
| By: | Liming Yao |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research has explored housing affordability in China, with a focus on the factors contributing to housing difficulties. However, limited attention has been given to housing precarity, particularly among disadvantaged groups experiencing employment instability. Despite recent shifts in rural to urban migration trends in China, challenges such as restricted access to housing and stable employment have become increasingly prevalent for this group, exacerbated by persistent institutional barriers. While the interplay between housing precarity and job instability has been extensively studied in the international contexts, there remains a notable gap in understanding these dynamics among Chinese rural to urban migrants. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating how employment instability exacerbates housing precarity and how these challenges limit migrants' access to social welfare and hinder their social integration in urban destinations. Using data from Chinese household surveys and empirical estimations, the findings reveal that unstable employment, characterised by irregular income or precarious contracts, limits individuals’ ability to afford secure and adequate housing, perpetuating a cycle of housing and economic insecurity. The heterogeneity effect by educational achievement highlights that migrants with greater qualifications demonstrate increased likelihood in securing job opportunities, thereby reducing the adverse impacts on housing security. The findings enrich this field of study by offering China-specific insights, calling for policy attention to address the housing and labour challenges for rural to urban migrants. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; Housing precarity; Job instability; Rural to urban migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_86 |
| By: | Masahiro ENDOH; Toshiyuki MATSUURA; Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effect of import shocks from China on population movement within and across regional employment zones in Japan based on Japanese census data from the 1990s to the 2010s. This effect was estimated for eight population groups defined by combinations of age and gender: the total population, and those aged 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 by age group, and males and females by gender. Increases in imports from China had no significant effect on population movements within commuting zones or on net outflows from zones, but they significantly reduced both inflows to and outflows from zones, suggesting that import shocks tend to suppress inter-regional migration. The effect was observed across all age groups and for both men and women. Estimates indicate that regional differences in import shocks lowered both inflow and outflow rates. The magnitude was generally moderate compared with the actual ratios, but inflow migration of young women was relatively strongly suppressed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25108 |
| By: | KS, Chalapati Rao; KVK, Ranganathan |
| Abstract: | This paper critically examines the investment-related provisions of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), signed on 10 March 2024 focusing on its ambitious commitment to mobilise $100 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) and generate one million direct jobs over 15 years in India. Using global aggregate FDI flows and India’s remittance-level FDI data, this study evaluates the feasibility of meeting TEPA’s targets, highlighting discrepancies in FDI measurement, definitional ambiguities, and the predominance of financial over Real FDI. This analysis highlights the limited investment by EFTA countries, particularly Switzerland and Norway, in recent years. The study reveals that a significant portion of reported FDI includes acquisitions and reinvested earnings, rather than fresh equity inflows or greenfield investments. This raises questions about achieving employment targets, especially in the manufacturing sector, given the global employment scale and trends of Swiss companies. This study critiques the lack of clarity in several provisions of TEPA, which are unexpected and unacceptable in an international agreement, and warns against overreliance on generic FDI inflows. The study wonders whether this was due to the hurry to beat the announcement of India’s general elections. Evidence shows that the EFTA did not wish to lose another opportunity, as had happened before the 2014 elections. Nevertheless, the study notes that the EFTA introduced safety clauses to hedge against failure. This was understandable because the EFTA had consented to the commitments only to secure an agreement that would provide tariff-free access to the Indian market. If one goes by TEPA’s provisions regarding third-country investments through the EFTA, India would be receiving global FDI flows rather than EFTA investments. The mechanism for applying remedial measures available to India, in case the targets are not met, is good only on paper and not in practice. In effect, they only enable the EFTA to prolong the period of meeting the targets for much longer than 20 years and/or to have the targets revised downwards. By treating FDI as an end in itself, TEPA ignores the conventional wisdom of bartering market access for technology and other benefits. This study calls for precise definitions, strategic prioritisation of sectors aligned with India’s developmental goals, and the establishment of robust monitoring mechanisms. India must proactively shape the operational framework of the Investment Sub-Committee to be set up under TEPA to safeguard its interests and ensure that TEPA delivers tangible benefits to India. Ultimately, this study positions TEPA as a test case for India’s evolving FDI strategy and urges the Indian policymakers to balance quantitative targets with the qualitative outcomes. It advocates for a more nuanced, evidence-based approach to future investment treaties that prioritise technology transfer, joint ventures, and indigenous enterprise development. We hope this study will serve as a timely input for India’s ongoing FTA negotiations with the EU and New Zealand, and for preparing the work plan of the Investment Sub-Committee to be set up under TEPA. |
| Keywords: | FDI, TEPA, EFTA, MNE, FTA, Switzerland, Norway, India, Investment, UNCTAD |
| JEL: | P45 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126713 |
| By: | Luo, Liqiao |
| Abstract: | This study examines China’s COVID governance through the case of Beijing from April to June 2022. To manage the biopolitical paradox between mobility and immobility brought forward by the pandemic, the Chinese state mobilised a temporal mode of COVID governance, implementing drastic containment measures aimed at ‘zeroing out’ viruses in the shortest possible time while minimising socio-economic cost. This approach entailed imposing immobility and making mobility according to the specific temporal—spatial arrangements of time—space compression in a state of exception, within which a spatial configuration of simultaneity for infrastructural intervention emerged. However, the two groups of infrastructures deployed for these purposes ultimately generated excessive socio-economic costs, while achieving ‘zeroing out’ over an extended period, revealing Beijing’s impactful but ineffective COVID governance. This outcome invites reflection on how China’s temporal mode of governance was enacted and reciprocally challenged by the very infrastructures deployed as its instruments. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure; pandemic; Covid-19; coronavirus; Chinese urbanism; governance; temporality |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129813 |
| By: | Toshihiko Mukoyama; Kanato Nakakuni; Makoto Nirei |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the Japanese economy during the Great Recession period (2007-2009). The Japanese GDP dropped significantly during this period, despite limited exposure to the US housing market, and exports also declined sharply. Motivated by this fact, we construct a multi-sector, multi-region small open economy model. Each region has a representative consumer, and regions and sectors are linked through inter-regional input-output tables and consumers’ final demand. We measure the export shocks in each region-sector using trade statistics. Using our model, we quantitatively evaluate how the decline in export demand propagates throughout the country. We find that export shocks account for a significant portion of the GDP decline in many regions. To inspect the mechanism, we conduct counterfactual exercises in which we examine the change in GDP resulting from an export shock in a specific industry-region. The propagation is decomposed within and across regions, as well as within and across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Great Recession, export demand, inter-regional input-output table, multi-sector model |
| JEL: | D57 E32 F41 F44 R15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_711 |
| By: | Chauhan, Tarana |
| Abstract: | Bank accounts are an essential first step towards formal savings and credit in most countries, yet their impact on women's control over resources remains underexplored. I investigate the effects of 2014 policy in India that provided free bank accounts and led to an unprecedented increase in women's account ownership. This paper shows that bank account ownership improves households' financial access, and in certain cases increases women's decision making on household spending. Using a difference-in-difference estimation that exploits the sharp timing of the policy and a high-frequency household panel data, I find that women's account ownership increased household's likelihood to save in formal instruments and switch to formal sources of borrowing but did not affect consumption patterns consistent with women's preferences. Exploiting regional variation in pre-policy bank infrastructure, I further analyze the effects on women's self-reported decision-making. While districts with faster account expansion did not exhibit overall improvement of women's participation in household purchase decisions or spending autonomy, there were significant gains in districts where women had greater ex-ante mobility and households trusted banking institutions. |
| Keywords: | Bank Account Ownership, Household Resource Allocation, Women's Decision Making, Government Policy, Women's Empowerment, India |
| JEL: | D13 D14 G21 G28 G51 I38 J12 J16 R28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1689 |
| By: | Vikram Aggarwal (Google); Jay Kulkarni (xKDR Forum); Aakriti Narang (xKDR Forum); Aditi Mascarenhas (xKDR Forum); Siddarth Raman (xKDR Forum); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum); Susan Thomas (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text comprehension, but their ability to process complex, hierarchical tabular data remains underexplored. We present a novel approach to extracting structured data from multi-page government fiscal documents using LLM-based techniques. Applied to large annual fiscal documents from the State of Karnataka in India, our method achieves high accuracy through a multi-stage pipeline that leverages domain knowledge, sequential context, and algorithmic validation. Traditional OCR methods work poorly with errors that are hard to detect. The inherent structure of fiscal tables, with totals at each level of the hierarchy, allows for robust internal validation of the extracted data. We use these hierarchical relationships to create multi-level validation checks. We demonstrate that LLMs can read tables and also process document-specific structural hierarchies, offering a scalable process for converting PDF-based fiscal disclosures into research-ready databases. Our implementation shows promise for broader applications across developing country contexts. |
| JEL: | H6 H7 Y10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:43 |
| By: | Kozo Ueda; Kota Watanabe |
| Abstract: | Measuring service prices remains particularly challenging due to their inherent heterogeneity and lack of standardization, unlike goods whose prices are easily captured through scanner data. This study exploits newly available scanner data from approximately 1, 000 Japanese restaurants covering the period 2018-2025, which record detailed information on every order. We construct indices for prices, quantities, and sales, and analyze the frequency and magnitude of price changes. Even though restaurant items are highly heterogeneous and less standardized than goods, price indices remain stable across different formulas. The indices exhibit only minimal biases from intratemporal (cross-sectional) and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, scanner-based restaurant prices align closely with CPI measures. |
| Keywords: | consumer price index, price stickiness, measurement |
| JEL: | E31 C43 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-61 |
| By: | Hoddinott, John F.; Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Quisumbing, Agnes R. |
| Abstract: | We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities. |
| Keywords: | resilience; shocks; gender; nutrition; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:177816 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | Spatial econometrics lacks principled methods for measuring minimum wage spillovers. Existing approaches assume arbitrary functional forms without theoretical justification, preventing researchers from answering basic questions: How far do effects reach? Through which channels? At what speed? This paper derives spatial treatment effects from first principles using Navier-Stokes equations. Three theoretical predictions emerge and are validated empirically. First, treatment boundaries exhibit self-similar scaling, growing proportional to the square root of elapsed time as predicted by diffusion theory (estimated exponent: 0.500, standard error: 0.001). Second, spatial weights follow Modified Bessel K-zero functions, the exact Green's function solution to the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. This theoretically-derived specification fits observed spillover patterns substantially better than exponential, Gaussian, or power-law alternatives commonly assumed in applied work (R-squared: 0.99 versus 0.35). Third, network consolidation paradoxically increases rather than dampens wage volatility during stress periods, with consolidation-volatility correlation rising from near-zero to positive 0.0067 following COVID-19. Using 64, 421 county-quarter observations from 2018 to 2023, I estimate characteristic spillover distance of 100 miles with cumulative effects reaching 0.44 log points over four quarters. Economic network linkages dominate geographic proximity by factor of eight, demonstrating that institutional connections matter more than physical distance. Spatial decay parameters increased 27 percent during COVID-19 (from 0.0155 to 0.0196), shrinking effective spillover radius from 65 to 51 miles and confirming time-varying dynamics predicted by perturbation theory. The framework provides concrete policy guidance. Regional minimum wage coordination should encompass 100-mile radius under normal conditions, contracting to 65 miles during crises. For Japan's minimum wage reform targeting 1, 500 yen per hour by 2030, spillovers from Tokyo will substantially affect surrounding prefectures within 160 kilometers. Self-similar scaling implies effects reach half of final magnitude within one year but continue expanding indefinitely, requiring multi-year coordination frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Spatial wage spillovers, Self-similar scaling, Network fragility, Modified Bessel functions, Minimum wage policy, Japan |
| JEL: | C21 D85 J31 J38 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126722 |
| By: | Atsuki Hirata (Bank of Japan); Yusuke Takahashi (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kato (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interest rate sensitivity of capital investment in Japan. We first summarize recent global trends using macro-level statistics from advanced economies. Using firm-level financial survey data for Japanese firms, we then demonstrate how structural changes surrounding Japanese firms, such as the increase in intangible asset investment and overseas capital investment, affect interest rate sensitivity, employing a method called Panel LP-IV (Local Projection Instrumental Variables). The analysis yields several key findings: first, the interest rate sensitivity of capital investment has shown a declining trend in recent years globally. Second, intangible asset investment has a low interest rate sensitivity; consequently, firms with a higher proportion of intangible assets in their aggregate capital investment are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to firms with a lower proportion. Last but not least, declining growth expectations and increasing labor shortages can additionally depress interest rate sensitivity. While firms with a higher overseas investment ratio showed a lower interest rate sensitivity for tangible asset investment domestically compared to firms with a lower overseas investment ratio, this difference is not statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | Capital investment; Interest rate sensitivity; Intangible assets; Overseas capital investment; Labor shortage; Growth expectations |
| JEL: | E22 E43 G31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e13 |
| By: | Y. Yaru Ren; J. Li (Audencia Business School); Y. Yiwei Yao; L. Linti Zhang |
| Abstract: | This study explores the anchoring effect of previous bid premiums on acquirers' bidding behavior in serial acquisitions. We demonstrate that, after controlling for deal, target, as well as acquirer characteristics, learning, and unobserved confounding factors, the current bid premium is positively correlated with the acquirer's previous bid premium. The strength of this anchoring effect diminishes with longer time intervals between acquisitions and increases with the industry similarity of targets and acquisition frequency. Notably, it remains unaffected by the acquirer's state ownership. Additionally, the anchoring effect is less pronounced during periods of high economic uncertainty and can reverse following a change in the acquirer's CEO. Our findings suggest that serial acquisitions are interrelated events, challenging the notion that each bid is an isolated occurrence. This research provides insights into the underperformance of serial acquirers compared to single acquirers and the declining trend in announcement returns across successive deals. |
| Keywords: | Serial takeovers, bid premium, anchoring effects |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302708 |