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on South East Asia |
| By: | Madhavi Pundit (Asian Development Bank); Immanuel Sin (Asian Development Bank); Paolo Magnata (Asian Development Bank); R. Duncan McIntosh (Asian Development Bank); Priscille Villanueva (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The automatic identification system (AIS) is a short-range coastal tracking system used to identify ships and their speed and location worldwide. This case study leverages high frequency AIS data to analyze the impact of typhoons on port activity in the Philippines. Maritime transport plays a pivotal role in facilitating trade and transportation of goods and passengers in an archipelago like the Philippines. The Philippines typically encounters 20 tropical cyclones each year, with significant impacts on port operations and economic activity. We study Typhoon Phanfone (known in the Philippines as Typhoon Ursula) that hit the Philippines in December 2019. Disruptions in maritime activity based on daily ship traffic were measured using AIS data over a 2-year period for the Philippines and its top trade partners. A Bayesian structural time series model was employed to build a counterfactual for quantifying the impact of Typhoon Phanfone on specific Philippine ports. This analytical framework that harnesses the potential of AIS data provides policymakers and stakeholders with a tool for near real-time impact assessment that informs planning regarding port operations, scheduling, and resource allocation, and can feed into medium-term disaster risk management decisions |
| Keywords: | AIS data;daily ship traffic;Bayesian structural time series model |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C55 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021739 |
| By: | Zhiwu Wei (University of Cambridge); Neil Lee (London School of Economics and Political Science); Yohan Iddawela (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Mobile internet has become a fundamental component of modern infrastructure. In this paper, we consider the impact of mobile internet connectivity on household wealth in the Philippines. We construct a granular measure of local mobile internet connectivity using comprehensive information on approximately 0.27 million geocoded cell towers, and identify causal impact through a novel instrumental variable based on proximity to submarine cable landing points. Our results suggest that mobile internet connectivity significantly increases household wealth, with effects that persist across education levels and are more pronounced in urban areas compared to rural ones. Combining individual survey datasets with Points-of-Interest data, we investigate mechanisms and demonstrate that improved connectivity stimulates activities in several key economic sectors that create employment opportunities. Additionally, mobile internet connectivity enhances individual educational outcomes and promotes female labor force participation, though predominantly in occasional or seasonal roles. |
| Keywords: | mobile internet;cell tower;wealth inequality;Philippines |
| JEL: | F14 J24 J63 L86 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021753 |
| By: | Adrianna Bella (Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University & ARC Centre of Excellence for the Elimination of Violence Against Women); Nicole Black (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Teguh Dartanto (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia); Danusha Jayawardana (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Dennis Petrie (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Child marriage remains a significant global issue, violating human rights and limiting development outcomes, particularly for girls. This study examines the impact of Indonesia’s first minimum marriage age (MMA) law, which in 1975 set the minimum age of marriage for girls at 16 years. The analysis relies on a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of the policy on child marriage and girls’ education, with specific adjustments to address non-random heaping in reported years of birth. Using data from the 2018–2021 Indonesia National Socio-economic Survey (SUSE-NAS), we find that the MMA law reduced marriages under the age of 16 by 18% and increased the age at first marriage by about five months. It also had a broader effect by delaying marriages beyond the legal threshold. The effects were stronger in regions with entrenched child-marriage norms and in urban settings. We also find evidence that the MMA policy had positive effects on educational attainment, particularly in obtaining a tertiary degree. |
| Keywords: | Child marriage, Indonesia, non-random heaping, anticipation effect, doughnut regression discontinu |
| JEL: | J16 J12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-17 |
| By: | Nguyen-Phung, Hang Thu; DAO, Trieu Minh |
| Abstract: | Vietnam is experiencing rapid population aging, placing increasing pressure on families in a context of limited formal social protection. Adult children remain the primary source of financial and non-financial support for elderly parents, including co-residence, caregiving, and monetary transfers. This study examines how intergenerational support is influenced by parental needs, children's gender, and residential arrangements. Building on altruism and filial obligation frameworks, we hypothesize that children adjust their support when parents' needs are partially met, and that the amount and type of support vary by gender and co-residence status. Empirical findings suggest that shifts in gender roles have increasingly placed physical caregiving responsibilities on daughters, while sons continue to provide financial support. Rural households with limited pension coverage maintain strong cultural expectations for support, while urban households with pensions exhibit partial crowding-out of private transfers. Broader demographic and economic factors including declining fertility, high household savings, and a shrinking labor force further shape the sustainability and structure of intergenerational support. These results highlight the centrality of family-based care in Vietnam and provide a foundation for future research on elderly vulnerability, children's economic constraints, and the macroeconomic implications of population aging. |
| Keywords: | Aging population, Children, Pension, Gender, Resident status, Crowding Out, Intergenerational transfer, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000252 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H (World Bank); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Obtaining comparable poverty estimates over time is critical for monitoring poverty trends and informing effective poverty reduction policies. Yet hardly any developing countries could construct consistent poverty trends over extended time periods due to changes to the consumption survey questionnaires and poverty lines that reflect changing consumption patterns and living standards. Furthermore, spatial and temporal deflators could be unavailable or could have been unsystematically employed, which could result in worsening incomparability of consumption aggregates. We propose a solution to these data challenges by applying data imputation to 13 survey rounds for Viet Nam during 1993-2022. Our results provide new, comparable, and smoother estimates of poverty trends for Viet Nam. We also offer a useful case study for other similar contexts. |
| Keywords: | poverty, living standard, poverty imputation, household surveys, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18236 |
| By: | Bushra, Batool; Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the impacts of South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) on global value chains (GVCs)’ participations in South Asian economies (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan), by applying a structural gravity trade model and using the Trade in Value Added database (TiVA 2023) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The study contributes to the literature by enriching the evidence on the nexus between SAFTA and GVCs in South Asia, whereas previous works have rarely addressed the issue. The study found that the SAFTA has facilitated the GVC backward participations in terms of the increases in the foreign value added (FVA) inputs from India in the exports of Bangladesh and Pakistan and the FVA input from Pakistan in Bangladesh’s esports. The policy implication is that there should be much room to explore the GVC activities in South Asia because the other bilateral GVC linkages have been still sluggish. |
| Keywords: | South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), global value chains (GVCs), GVC backward participations, structural gravity trade model, the Trade in Value Added database (TiVA 2023) |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126347 |
| By: | Yeonha Jung; Minki Kim; Munseob Lee |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term impact of Hyanggyo, state-sponsored educational institutions established during the early Joseon Dynasty in Korea (1392-1592), on human capital accumulation. Although these schools largely ceased functioning as educational centers by the late 16th century, their influence has endured to the present day. Drawing on a newly constructed township-level dataset, we find a robust positive association between historical exposure to Hyanggyo and modern educational attainment. This relationship appears to be driven by enduring local demand for education, supported by three complementary findings. First, regions with greater historical exposure experienced larger gains in Japanese literacy during colonial era school expansions. Second, residents in these areas express stronger pro-education attitudes today. Third, historically exposed regions exhibited lower fertility rates, consistent with a quantity–quality tradeoff in parental investment. Together, our findings highlight the lasting legacy of early educational institutions. |
| Keywords: | Historical institutions, Human capital, Hyanggyo, Joseon, Cultural transmission |
| JEL: | I23 J24 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_707 |
| By: | Bayari, Celal |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative (the BRI) is the current developmental stage of the Chinese capitalist model, and its progress through different nations depend on the governance that China established across its own vast geography over a long period of time. The levels of the BRI international activity resemble a rapid flood rather than a slow flow, due to the availability of the Chinese state finances and private capital funds, since the start of the Deng modernisations, and China’s entry into the WTO. The growth of the Chinese capitalism presented an interesting contrast to the national economic models North America, Europe, and Asia. There has been much interest on the interplay between the nature of the Chinese capitalism, the existing institutions, and the institutions that emerged subsequently. Overall, there exists a specific understanding of the growth in China in terms of the stronger and weaker institutions, that the paper discusses. China’s own development, the BRI activities, and the uneven success of the Sustainable Development Goals across the BRI membership also form an interesting debate. Further, China’s WTO entry, the WTO framework, and the subsequent BRI agreements also significant contrasts that the paper highlights. |
| Keywords: | China, Belt and Road Initiative, Institutional Economics, Soft Law, SDGs, Pollution Halo, Pollution Haven |
| JEL: | A11 A12 A14 B3 B31 E2 E22 E62 E65 F1 F13 F14 F15 F18 F21 F23 F42 F43 F55 F62 F63 F64 G2 G28 I1 I31 K2 K23 K32 K33 L1 L12 L16 L22 L41 L51 L91 L98 M16 M21 N1 N10 N15 N17 N20 N25 N27 N30 N35 N37 N70 N75 N77 N90 N95 N97 O11 O14 O18 O19 O38 O43 O53 O55 O56 P1 P12 P14 P26 P33 P45 P48 P51 P52 Q01 Q02 Q2 Q27 Q32 Q37 Q43 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q58 R38 R41 R53 R58 Z1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125677 |
| By: | Leonardo Burlamaqui |
| Abstract: | Between the late 1990s and mid-2000s, China's banking sector underwent a profound yet largely underappreciated transformation--arguably one of the most consequential episodes of financial restructuring in recent economic history. This paper analyzes the Chinese banking reform process through a Minskyian lens, with particular attention to the conceptual ambiguity between financial fragility and financial instability in Minsky's own formulation. The core contribution lies in demonstrating that the reforms implemented under Zhu Rongji successfully resolved a condition of deep and systemic financial fragility without tipping into full-blown financial instability. In that sense, China’s banking overhaul constitutes a non-Minskyian resolution to what was, in classical terms, a Minsky-type problem. The Chinese case thus provides a rare empirical example of mounting financial fragility managed without crisis--offering critical insights for contemporary efforts at financial stabilization under conditions of systemic vulnerability. |
| JEL: | B5 E02 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1086 |
| By: | Amit Basole; M. K. Shravan; R. Vijayamba |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of household-level social norms regarding women's mobility in determining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women's employment. The shock of the pandemic containment measures, such as India's nationwide lockdown caused both supply- and demand-side disruptions. Nationally representative labor force surveys offer suggestive evidence that loss of income and employment for men could plausibly have increased the labor market participation of women, particularly in self-employment, in order to smooth household consumption. But whether women are able to respond in this manner to a negative income shock is likely to be mediated by social norms around mobility. Using the fourth and fifth rounds of the National Family Health Survey (2015-16 and 2019-20), we show that this was indeed the case. We find that women residing in districts with more progressive gender norms in the baseline period (2015-16) were significantly more likely to be employed as compared to women residing in districts with stricter norms, controlling for the husband’s employment and other relevant household- and individual-level factors. |
| Keywords: | India; COVID-19; women's employment; social norms |
| JEL: | J1 J22 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1096 |
| By: | Taneesha Datta |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of electing members of minority groups into positions of political power is well-established. However, the impact of political representation on broader civil rights and liberties, and particularly access to justice, remains unexplored. This paper employs a close-election regression discontinuity design to explore whether female political representation can explain judicial outcomes in the Indian context, focusing on crimes against women. Despite politicians having no formal influence over the judiciary, I find that the election of a female politician generates a large and statistically significant increase in the likelihood of conviction for crimes against women, relative to the election of a male politician. I do not find similar differences in the likelihood of conviction for gender-neutral crimes, suggesting that female politicians shape judicial outcomes within issue areas that align with gendered spheres of influence and interest. Additional analysis - on whether female politicians cater to gendered preferences in public goods and whether the effect of female representation on the likelihood of conviction varies with local gender bias - points to two potentially important mechanisms. These include a policy channel, whereby female politicians actively attempt to act in women’s interests, and an exposure channel, whereby observing female representatives positively informs citizens’ views on women’s competencies. This study emphasises the importance of political representation in expanding vulnerable groups’ access to justice. |
| Keywords: | Political economy, law, political representation, gender, close elections, India |
| JEL: | D72 J16 O43 D78 H73 K4 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-11 |
| By: | Deshpande, Ashwini; Kabeer, Naila |
| Abstract: | Based on primary data from a large household survey in seven districts in West Bengal in India, this paper analyses the reasons underlying low labor force participation of women. In developing countries, women who are engaged in unpaid economic work in family enterprises are often not counted as workers, whereas the men are. We show that for women, not being in paid work is not synonymous with not being in the labour force. Women are often involved in expenditure saving activities i.e. productive work within the family, over and above domestic chores and care work. We document the fuzziness of the boundary between domestic work and unpaid (and therefore invisible) productive work that leads to mismeasurement of women's work and suggest methods to improve measurement. Counting women's expenditure-saving activities yields a substantially higher estimate of women's participation in economic work. On social norms, we show that religion and visible markers such as veiling are not significant determinants of the probability of being in paid work. We find that being primarily responsible for domestic chores lowers the probability of “working”, after accounting for all the conventional factors. Our data shows substantial unmet demand for paid work. Given that women are primarily responsible for domestic chores, we find that women express a demand for work that would be compatible with household chores. We demonstrate the existence of ‘virtuous cycles’ within families: a history of working women in the family (mother or mother-in-law ever worked) increases the probability of being in paid work between 18 and 21 percentage points. This suggests that the positive effects of increasing women's labour force participation today are likely to have positive multiplier effects on the prospects for work in future generations of women. |
| Keywords: | gender; India; labor force participation; women |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J40 B54 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120694 |
| By: | Kee, Hiau Looi; Taglioni, Daria; Xie, Enze |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the roles of tariff and non-tariff measures in China’s meteoric rise as the world’s leading green product supplier. Evidence from customs transaction data from 2000 to 2016 shows that processing firms propelled the export surge, utilizing the expanding domestic material varieties due to trade liberalization benefiting their upstream suppliers. The substitution of domestic materials for imported materials raised the domestic value-added ratio of the processing firms and the exports of green products. A two-sector model rationalizes the empirical results. Trade policy liberalization, together with industrial policies, market scale, and synchronized global demand, contributed to China’s dominance. |
| Date: | 2025–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11240 |
| By: | Naoto JINJI; Keiko ITO; Toshiyuki MATSUURA |
| Abstract: | This study examines how US export controls targeting Chinese firms affect the export behavior of Japanese firms using Japan Customs data. Focusing on the impact of the US Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List (EL), we identify exports from Japanese firms to Chinese firm added to the EL by the end of 2022. We find that inclusion of Chinese firms in the EL led to a significant reduction in Japanese firms’ exports to those firms. In response, the affected Japanese firms increased their exports to non-targeted Chinese firms and firms in countries aligned with the United States. |
| Keywords: | export controls; Entity List; Japan Customs data. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-008 |
| By: | Thurik, Roy (Erasmus School of Economics); Kato, Masatoshi (Kwansei Gakuin University); van der Zwan, Peter (Leiden University); Kageura, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies deal with the link between daily recovery experiences (DRE) and mental health for employees. Hardly any studies exist for small business owners. This is surprising given that their health is not just important for themselves but also for their environment (such as employees, clients, suppliers, networks). In the present study we analyse if this link also works for some 2, 400 Japanese small business owners. Next to overall DRE, four dimensions of DRE are distinguished (detachment, relaxation, mastery, and control). Mental health is captured using well-being (psychological well-being and job satisfaction) and ill-being (burnout and stress). First, we compare our DRE levels with many other (employee) studies. Second, controlling for many phenomena including participating in nomikai (a typical Japanese custom of getting together after office hours), we show that the quality of overall DRE is positively linked to well-being, and negatively to ill-being. Third, like the quality of overall DRE, nomikai activities of the owner are positively linked to their psychological well-being and job satisfaction, and negatively to burnout and stress. Its role seems to be independent of that of the quality of DRE. |
| Keywords: | well-being, Nomikai, daily recovery experiences, entrepreneurs, small business owners/managers, job satisfaction, burnout, stress, Japan |
| JEL: | I12 I31 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18227 |
| By: | Kandpal, Ankita; Birthal, Pratap S.; Mishra, Shruti |
| Abstract: | Research in and for agriculture has significant potential to address the current and future challenges to transforming agri-food production systems as more productive, efficient, and sustainable. In India, most research in agriculture and allied activities is carried out in public-sector institutions. Agricultural R&D, however, remains underinvested. In 2020-21, the country spent about 0.54% of agricultural gross domestic product on research and 0.11% on extension, much less than their corresponding global levels. Nevertheless, there is a strong justification for more investment in agricultural R&D. Every rupee spent on research pays back Rs 13.85, and on extension, Rs 7.40. Hence, by 2030, investment in R&D should be raised to at least one percent of the agricultural gross domestic product. Importantly, it should be accompanied by revamping of the research agenda, considering the likely demand for different food and non-food commodities, the current and future challenges, and opportunities. This study suggests more resources for research on livestock, fisheries, natural resource management, and climate adaptation and mitigation, and bridging the regional R&D gaps. The past is the guide to the future. Investment in R&D made today will decide the future course of agricultural development. The evidence presented in this study are of significant importance to research administrators and policymakers in taking informed decisions regarding investment in agricultural R&D and its prioritization for the smooth transformation of agri-food systems. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpp:344995 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a structured approach for using genealogical records from FamilySearch to study Chinese historical demography. As a proof of concept, we focus on over 190, 000 digitized records from a single surname, drawn from many provinces and spanning multiple centuries. These lineage-based microdata include individual-level birth, death, and kinship information, which we clean, validate, and geocode using consistent rules and standardized place names. We begin by documenting descriptive patterns in population growth, sex ratios, and migration. Migration was overwhelmingly local, with longdistance moves rare and concentrated in a small number of lineages. Outmigration rose to a high point between 1750 and 1850 and then declined in later cohorts and generations. We then use the genealogical data to test specific hypotheses. Male-biased sex ratios—likely influenced by female infanticide—are strongly associated with higher rates of male childlessness. Migration rates fall sharply with patrilineal generational depth, offering micro-level evidence that clans became more sedentary over time. Together, these findings show how genealogical records can be used to reconstruct long-run demographic patterns and to assess social processes such as kinship, mobility, and reproductive exclusion. The approach is replicable and extensible to other surnames and regions as data coverage improves. |
| Keywords: | crowd-surfed genealogies; historical demography; China |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129939 |
| By: | Ham, John C. (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Khan, Saima (North South University, Bangladesh) |
| Abstract: | BRAC has over 40, 000 schools worldwide. It is widely praised for serving disadvantaged students and for matching or outperforming government schools. Using data that we collected from Dhaka’s slums, we test these claims. We find that BRAC serves the most disadvantaged students in our survey, but contrary to popular belief, BRAC students perform significantly worse than comparable students at other school types when we control for family demographics in a matching procedure. Anticipating our need to control for selection, we collected data on family demographics and the child’s fluid intelligence; since the latter affects both types of school and student performance, it unambiguously should be included in the propensity score. Once we control for fluid intelligence, the performance difference with other NGO schools disappears. The gaps between government and JAAGO schools have narrowed, but they still remain large and statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | choice-based sampling, fluid intelligence, math achievement, BRAC schools, common support, matching |
| JEL: | C21 C83 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18214 |
| By: | Ignacio Belloc (University of Zaragoza); Pierre-André Chiappori (Columbia University); José Alberto Molina (IEDIS, Universidad de Zaragoza); Jorge Velilla (IEDIS, University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | The ability of spouses to commit to future behaviors has important implications for the design of policy interventions targeting specific household members. Using longitudinal data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (1993-2019), we find robust evidence consistent with limited commitment: positive own past wage shocks increase current leisure, while positive current husband wage shocks reduce the wife’s leisure. Additionally, changes in the wife’s private savings have lasting negative effects on the husband’s leisure time, as limited commitment predicts. These findings extend previous tests of commitment and underscore the importance of accounting for historical changes in the household’s economic environment. |
| Keywords: | dynamic collective model, commitment, leisure, JPSC data |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J16 J22 J31 H31 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1099 |
| By: | Runyu Wang; Haotian Zhong |
| Abstract: | Urban food delivery services have become an integral part of daily life, yet their mobility and environmental externalities remain poorly addressed by planners. Most studies neglect whether consumers pay enough to internalize the broader social costs of these services. This study quantifies the value of access to and use of food delivery services in Beijing, China, through two discrete choice experiments. The first measures willingness to accept compensation for giving up access, with a median value of CNY588 (approximately USD80). The second captures willingness to pay for reduced waiting time and improved reliability, showing valuations far exceeding typical delivery fees (e.g., CNY96.6/hour and CNY4.83/min at work). These results suggest a substantial consumer surplus and a clear underpricing problem. These findings highlight the need for urban planning to integrate digital service economies into pricing and mobility frameworks. We propose a quantity-based pricing model that targets delivery speed rather than order volume, addressing the primary source of externalities while maintaining net welfare gains. This approach offers a pragmatic, equity-conscious strategy to curb delivery-related congestion, emissions, and safety risks, especially in dense urban cores. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26636 |
| By: | Qiao Wang; Joseph George |
| Abstract: | Monitoring household water use in rapidly urbanizing regions is hampered by costly, time-intensive enumeration methods and surveys. We investigate whether publicly available imagery-satellite tiles, Google Street View (GSV) segmentation-and simple geospatial covariates (nightlight intensity, population density) can be utilized to predict household water consumption in Hubballi-Dharwad, India. We compare four approaches: survey features (benchmark), CNN embeddings (satellite, GSV, combined), and GSV semantic maps with auxiliary data. Under an ordinal classification framework, GSV segmentation plus remote-sensing covariates achieves 0.55 accuracy for water use, approaching survey-based models (0.59 accuracy). Error analysis shows high precision at extremes of the household water consumption distribution, but confusion among middle classes is due to overlapping visual proxies. We also compare and contrast our estimates for household water consumption to that of household subjective income. Our findings demonstrate that open-access imagery, coupled with minimal geospatial data, offers a promising alternative to obtaining reliable household water consumption estimates using surveys in urban analytics. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26957 |
| By: | Kumar, Sant; Birthal, Pratap S.; Chand, Prem; Kingsly, I. T. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:344937 |
| By: | Lekha S. Chakraborty; C. Prasanth |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency macro data from a financially deregulated regime, this paper examines whether there is any evidence of financial crowding out in India. The macroeconomic channel through which financial crowding out occurs is the link between the fiscal deficit and the interest rate determination. The results revealed that the fiscal deficit does not significantly determine interest rates in the post-pandemic monetary policy stance in India. The long-term interest rates were strongly influenced by the short-term interest rates, a fact which reinforces that the term structure is operating in India. The results further revealed that long-term interest rates were also positively influenced by capital flows and inflation expectations, while inversely impacted by the money supply. These inferences have policy implications on the fiscal and monetary policy coordination in India, where it is crucial to analyze the effect of a high-interest-rate regime on public corporate investment. Our results showed that public infrastructure investment and rate of interest are significant determinants of private corporate investment. Our results counter the popular belief that deficits determine interest rates in the context of emerging economies and "crowd out" private corporate investment. |
| Keywords: | fiscal deficit; interest rate determination; asymmetric vector autoregressive model; financial crowding out |
| JEL: | E62 C32 H6 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1085 |
| By: | Jean Dreze; Rahul R. |
| Abstract: | India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), enacted in 2005, is an experiment of major significance. Drawing on official statistics, this paper presents a broad-brush retrospective on MGNREGA's first 20 years, focusing inter alia on employment generation, the participation of marginalized groups, real wages, administrative expenditure, and comparative experiences of different Indian states. The program is an important demonstration of the possibility of a legal job guarantee, but its practical achievements are still heavily concentrated in a few states. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1095 |
| By: | Natal, Arnaud (University of Bordeaux); Nordman, Christophe Jalil (IRD, DIAL, Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Taking the case of rural South India, we explore the universality of the Big Five personality traits and their stability over time. We then investigate the effects of two exogenous shocks on trait stability: the demonetisation of November 2016 and the second COVID-19 lockdown. We use an original longitudinal dataset collected in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021. After correcting the data for acquiescence bias and performing factor analysis, we find that three personality traits emerge: emotional stability, plasticity, and conscientiousness. We find no evidence of temporal stability. Results from the covariate-balancing propensity score weighting model shows that the demonetisation impacts plasticity and conscientiousness, with exposed individuals scoring notably higher. The second COVID-19 lockdown exerts a negative impact on emotional stability. |
| Keywords: | caste, COVID-19, demonetisation, plasticity, Big Five, gender, India |
| JEL: | D91 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18210 |
| By: | Ashmita Gupta (Asian Development Research Institute, India); Neha Hui (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how trade liberalization reshaped caste-based occupational mobility in rural India. Using district-level exposure to the 1991 tariff reforms and nationally representative survey data, we provide the first causal evidence on how market integration affected labor market outcomes for Dalits (historically marginalized groups). We classify occupations by wages, skill intensity, task content, and international prestige scales to capture job quality. Our results show that while overall employment increased, Dalits in more liberalized districts were disproportionately excluded from high prestige occupations and shifted into low-wage, insecure work. Education emerges as a key mechanism: tariff exposure improved Dalit literacy but reduced higher-education attainment, limiting access to skilled jobs. These effects were most pronounced in states with flexible labor laws, where discriminatory hiring and firing practices could more easily operate. The findings demonstrate that structural reforms can reinforce existing social hierarchies, highlighting the importance of considering inequality transmission and barriers to mobility in assessing the population-wide effects of globalization. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalisation, caste, discrimination, occupational prestige, India |
| JEL: | J71 O24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-05 |
| By: | Mingjia XIE; Ting YIN; Emiko USUI; Yi ZHANG |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the health effects of hypothetical retirement policy changes, accounting for varied individual responses to policy changes and the heterogeneous health impacts of retirement. Using a Policy Relevant Treatment Effect (PRTE) framework with Japanese data, we find a policy’s net average health impact depends critically on its scale. Policies which cause marginal downward shifts in retirement rate improve average population health. Conversely, policies which induce large, substantial shifts lead to a net health decline as it faces individuals who stand to gain from retiring to continue working. Our findings highlight the importance of “selection on gains†and suggest that policymakers should favor incremental incentives over broad mandates. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25102 |
| By: | Yoshimichi Murakami (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nur Nahar Yasmin (Faculty of Business Studies, University of Dhaka, BANGLADESH) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the determinants of the gender wage gap across the wage distribution in rural Bangladesh, applying the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to the unconditional quantile regression approach. Using panel data from three rounds (2011–12, 2015, and 2019) of the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, this study controls for both household-level unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias in rural wage employment. Results reveal that the gender wage gap is most pronounced at the lower end of the distribution, providing strong evidence of the sticky floor phenomenon. We find that larger return to education and coefficient of full-time employment for females significantly contributed to a reduced wage gap at the upper end of the distribution, while larger return to education and coefficient of non-agricultural employment for females contributed to narrowing the wage gap at the lower end. Notably, as education is associated with a higher probability of wage employment for females, the contribution of education becomes stronger after controlling for selectivity bias. The findings suggest that promoting female education and expanding access to non-agricultural employment are key to reducing the gender wage gap in rural Bangladesh, although unobservable factors continue to perpetuate the sticky floor phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Education; Decomposition; Household fixed effects; Gender wage gap; Rural Bangladesh; Unconditional quantile regression |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-26 |
| By: | Kumar, Nalini Ranjan; Athare, Prakash G |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:349214 |
| By: | Prem, Chand; Kumara TM, Kiran; Pal, Suresh; Naik, Kalu |
| Abstract: | Sustainable development of agriculture is essential to achieve the multiple goals of improving food and nutrition security, improving farmers’ income, and reducing poverty, especially in developing countries like India where agriculture is the main source of livelihood for millions of small-scale producers. Hence, understanding the dimensions and indicators of sustainability is important for targeting technologies and policies for ensuring inter-general equity in agriculture. Considering several dimensions and indicators related to soil health, water management, ecology, and socioeconomic conditions this study has constructed composite indices of agricultural sustainability for major states of India. These indices will aid policymakers to identify weak linkages in agricultural development at a spatial scale, and accordingly take corrective actions. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpp:344993 |