|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Junlin Yang |
| Abstract: | This study examines how institutional differences and external crises shape volatility dynamics in emerging Asian stock markets. Using daily stock index returns for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines from 2010 to 2024, we estimate EGARCH(1, 1) and TGARCH(1, 1) models in a by-window design. The sample is split into the 2013 Taper Tantrum, the 2020-2021 COVID-19 period, the 2022-2023 rate-hike cycle, and tranquil phases. Prior work typically studies a single market or a static period; to our knowledge no study unifies institutional comparison with multi-crisis dynamics within one GARCH framework. We address this gap and show that all three markets display strong volatility persistence and fat-tailed returns. During crises both persistence and asymmetry increase, while tail thickness rises, implying more frequent extreme moves. After crises, parameters revert toward pre-shock levels. Cross-country evidence indicates a buffering role of institutional maturity: Malaysias stronger regulatory and information systems dampen amplification and speed recovery, whereas the Philippines thinner market structure prolongs instability. We conclude that crises amplify volatility structures, while institutional robustness governs recovery speed. The results provide policy guidance on transparency, macroprudential communication, and liquidity support to reduce volatility persistence during global shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.16010 |
| By: | Briones, Roehlano M.; Espineli, Isabel B. |
| Abstract: | This benchmarking study compares the performance of the livestock, poultry, and dairy (LPD) industries in the Philippines with other major producers and consumers in Asia, specifically China, Thailand, and Viet Nam. It also includes data from major global players. In the case of swine, commercial farms in the Philippines have a lower unit cost of production than backyard farms due to economies of scale. However, the cost per unit in commercial farms in the Philippines is among the highest of the countries studied, mainly because of elevated feed and grower stock costs. Similar to swine, commercial broilers benefit from economies of scale, resulting in a lower cost per kilogram compared to China, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The high tariffs on corn imports are driving up the cost of livestock and poultry feed. In terms of dairy, cattle and buffalo milk production at a semicommercial scale can be profitable, but the business case for backyard dairy operations needs to be strengthened. The Philippines has implemented regulatory and support policies for the LPD industries, covering regulations, support programs, and trade policies. Based on the findings of the study, the following policy recommendations are suggested: (1) conduct a comprehensive review of trade policies affecting the value chain to enhance the competitiveness of the LPD industries; (2) earmark the revenues generated from tariffs on pork and chicken imports to fund regulatory services and production support; (3) invest in research and data collection to inform policy and program development; (4) enhance the delivery of technical assistance, regulatory services, and production support; (5) improve the oversight system for the LPD industries in terms of regulatory compliance, zoning, enforcement of grades and standards, food safety, and animal welfare; (6) focus on upgrading technology and business practices for backyard operators through a collaborative extension approach; (7) strengthen farmer organizations to include most, if not all, backyard operators to facilitate the delivery of technical assistance and regulatory services and realize gains from economies of scale and scope. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness;agricultural benchmarking;value chain |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2025-06 |
| By: | Pantig, Ida Marie T.; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. |
| Abstract: | In this report, we characterize government health expenditures, examine the fragmented and overlapping nature of various financing streams, and propose a framework to address these challenges. Over the past decade, the Philippines has experienced unprecedented growth in government health expenditures, driven by increased fiscal space, a policy emphasis on health, and rising national income. While this trend is commendable, we have observed growing fragmentation within the system despite attempts at consolidation under the Universal Health Care Act. Multiple financing streams—including PhilHealth, the country’s national health insurance program, as well as national and local government budgets and medical assistance programs—often overlap and sometimes compete. This situation undermines efficiency and equity by disrupting risk pooling, limiting economies of scale, and leading to instances of “double funding”. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Health Financing;Health Expenditure;Universal Health Care;National Health Insurance Program |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-28 |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Arianto Patunru |
| Abstract: | This paper explores Indonesia's experience in leveraging opportunities presented by global manufacturing value chains (GMVCs), with a comparative focus on Southeast Asia. It is motivated by growing concerns in recent policy discussions regarding the country’s underutilized growth potential, which could be unlocked through more effective integration into GMVCs. Indonesia initially had promising prospects for export-oriented industrialization by engaging in GMVCs. However, its industrialization trajectory over the subsequent years has not lived up to expectations. Strong evidence indicates that Indonesia’s deep-rooted policy ambivalence has hindered its full participation in global production networks. The findings highlight the need for a proactive investment promotion strategy to attract multinational enterprises (MNEs) involved in GMVCs. |
| JEL: | F14 F41 F60 L2 L63 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-13 |
| By: | Delos Reyes, Julieta A.; Aquino, Lady Litz M.; Narita, Rovelito L.; Romanillos, Vilma L.; Lat, Abigail T.; Flores, Emmanuel C.; Sanjorjo, Neil Christian R.; Delos Reyes, Leo-Aldo A. |
| Abstract: | Despite longstanding recognition of the need to reform the Philippine public education system, significant improvements remain elusive. A more in-depth and targeted evaluation of current conditions is necessary. This paper explores several key questions: (1) How are teaching and learning materials developed, quality-assured, produced, distributed, and disposed of by the Department of Education (DepEd)? (2) How does the Philippines' procurement process for learning materials compare with that of other countries? (3) What measures can improve the efficiency of procurement, quality control, distribution, and disposal? (4) Can DepEd’s procurement methods support growth and sustainability in the local paper industry? The study surveyed 106 students and 42 teachers and conducted 16 key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Findings show that DepEd’s role in the book supply chain begins with providing Curriculum Guides (CGs), which serve as the foundation for publishers to create content. Content developers (writers, editors, illustrators, etc.) are managed by publishers, but the materials undergo evaluation by DepEd’s Bureau of Curriculum Development (BCD), guided by DepEd Order 25 (s. 2023). CG development is centralized at the DepEd Central Office through BCD and the Bureau of Learning Resources, employing a top-down approach. While this ensures academic rigor, it may fail to capture local cultural contexts and the on-the-ground needs of teachers and students. The procurement of textbooks and learning materials follows Republic Act 9184, requiring publishers and printers to undergo a bidding process. This centralized procurement often leads to delays, from curriculum development to book delivery. Textbook distribution is unequal; central schools typically have full sets while non-central schools may have limited or no materials, often due to logistical challenges and the remote locations of printers and publishers. Limited internet connectivity further complicates access to digital learning resources for both students and teachers. Book publishing using digital printing is gaining traction, enhancing the capacity of local printers and publishers. Book disposal policies align with government property rules but do not address how to dispose of outdated books, particularly regarding recycling, which could contribute to environmental sustainability and a more stable paper supply. Similar issues in educational resource development, distribution, and infrastructure exist in the Philippines, Cambodia, Jordan, Malawi, and Zambia. While some countries allow for more localized customization of materials based on culture and community needs, the Philippines employs a highly standardized model, limiting the relevance of materials for learners in remote and culturally diverse areas. The paper recommends: including regional experts in the development of curriculum guides; building the capacity of regional teams; regionalizing the procurement of learning resources; prioritizing digital infrastructure investment in remote regions; offering incentives for printers and publishers to operate in underserved areas; creating a logistics system that prioritizes delivery to remote schools; allowing for the use and regional printing of PDFs; and establishing clear protocols for the disposal and recycling of outdated books for future printing. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | book supply chain;EDCOM II;curriculum guide;procurement system;regionalization |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-29 |
| By: | Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Sergio Chumacero (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of the living income and living wage for rural Ilocos Sur Province, in the Philippines. The update for June 2025 takes into account inflation since the original report in November 2022 (Dacuycuy, Nario, Khan, Anker, & Anker, 2022). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living income, living wages, Anker Methodology, Philippines |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250433 |
| By: | Flores, Herisadel P. |
| Abstract: | State universities and colleges serve as critical pillars of higher education, human capital development, and technological innovation in the Philippines. As publicly funded institutions, they play a vital role in addressing educational disparities, fostering inclusive growth, and advancing research that contributes to national development. This study examines the funding approaches employed by SUCs, assessing their viability amid growing economic pressures and evolving policy landscapes. Traditionally, SUCs rely on direct government appropriations, supplemented by internally generated income from tuition fees, auxiliary services, and entrepreneurial ventures. However, financial constraints, regulatory barriers, and inefficient fund utilization hinder their capacity to achieve long-term sustainability. Drawing insights from international experiences, particularly from OECD and Southeast Asian economies, this study explores higher education financing models and various approaches implemented by public higher education institutions to diversify funding sources. While performance-based funding mechanisms and diversification strategies have gained traction globally, SUCs in the Philippines continue to face challenges in revenue generation due to limited financial autonomy, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and disparities in resource allocation. Government appropriations for SUCs remain unevenly distributed, with significant differences in budget allocation and development funding between institutions. Furthermore, reliance on state subsidies and SUCs’ inability to effectively pursue alternative financing strategies hinder infrastructure investment, research funding, and faculty development. To address these concerns, SUCs have implemented various initiatives, including income-generating projects, commercialization of intellectual property, and university-industry collaborations. However, these efforts have encountered difficulties due to a lack of institutional expertise, regulatory complexities, and insufficient investment from private sector stakeholders. The study highlights how financial autonomy, leadership strategies, and institutional governance affect SUCs' capacity to optimize funding opportunities while pursuing academic excellence. Lessons drawn from Southeast Asian experiences, such as Singapore’s model of funding public universities, Thailand’s policy of higher education decentralization, and Malaysia’s entrepreneurial university approach, offer valuable insights into strengthening SUC financing. Building on international trends and local challenges, this research outlines key policy recommendations for improving financial sustainability among Philippine SUCs. These include rationalizing tuition fees to create more equitable funding structures, expanding university-industry collaboration to boost external revenues, strengthening the commercialization of university-developed technologies, and reforming government budget allocation mechanisms to promote efficiency and innovation. Adopting a more strategic approach to financing can enhance the competitiveness of SUCs, improve higher education quality, and contribute more effectively to national development. A nuanced policy framework is therefore necessary to balance state support with institutional self-sufficiency and foster a robust higher education sector capable of meeting the demands of the global knowledge economy. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | state universities and colleges;higher education financing;financial autonomy;financial sustainability;entrepreneurial university;university corporatization;university-industry collaboration;commercialization of intellectual property;endowment funds;SUCs |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-16 |
| By: | Rivera, JohnPaoloR.; Lim, ValerieL.; Sinsay-Villanueva, LeihMaruss; Garcia, GlendaDarleneV.; Tanyag, IvanHarris; Berroya, JenardD. |
| Abstract: | Teaching quality is considered one of the foundations of student achievement and institutional performance. Consequently, linking in-service training (INSET) and teacher professional development (TPD) to student outcomes has been at the forefront of education research. This inquiry focuses on how to improve accessibility and participation in INSET and TPD programs to enhance teaching quality and revitalize the Philippine education system. Accessibility issues, allocation practices, and implementation challenges of INSET and TPD programs are examined. By triangulating data from document reviews with insights gathered from key informant interviews with sector experts and focus group discussions with teachers, key gaps that hinder the achievement of intended outcomes are highlighted. Findings reveal that while training opportunities exist and needs assessments are in place, outcomes are impeded by inequitable access, inconsistent funding, and a lack of alignment with evolving pedagogical needs. Moreover, logistical barriers, such as geographic constraints and workload concerns, prevent full participation in TPD programs. To address these challenges, comprehensive recommendations for the Department of Education (DepEd), policymakers, and educational institutions are presented, aimed at ensuring equitable access to INSET and TPD programs through increased funding, integration of digital learning tools, and institutionalization of sustainable training frameworks. Educational institutions can implement school-based professional learning communities, strengthen mentorship programs, and encourage data-driven approaches to professional growth. By enhancing INSET and TPD programs through strategic reforms and evidence-based interventions, the Philippines can cultivate a high-quality teaching workforce capable of addressing the evolving landscape and demands of 21st-century education. A renewed commitment to teacher development will not only enhance instructional quality but also pave the way for a more inclusive, innovative, and resilient education system that empowers both teachers and learners. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | education;in-service training;learning;teacher professional development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-14 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Bagas, Joy; Ngo, Frances Lois U.; Talamayan, Jann Trizia; Syling, Jereme Paolo K; Conda, Lea Elora A.; Gepte, Diana Francesca G.; Sarte, Genelyn Ma.; Tamondong-Lachica, Diana |
| Abstract: | The Universal Health Care (UHC) Act of 2019 introduces comprehensive reforms to address longstanding demand and supply constraints in the Philippine health system. Key reform areas include shifting the provider payment mechanisms of the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) to a global budget and expanding primary health care and drug benefits. The Department of Health and PhilHealth will implement Health Care Provider Networks (HCPNs) as a key service delivery platform to integrate care at the provincial level. These reforms will be piloted in select provinces through the HCPN Demonstration Program. A robust impact evaluation is critical given the profound system-wide effects, which require a baseline assessment of the population, healthcare providers, and health facilities before implementation. Data collection should include comparator sites to establish counterfactual data, allowing for a more accurate estimation of the program's impact. To support this effort, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies was tasked with designing an impact evaluation framework, developing data collection tools, and collecting baseline data from eight provinces at three levels: population-level, facility-level, and provider-level. This paper summarizes key indicators from the eight provinces at the baseline level prior to the implementation of the reforms. Key findings show differences in population health status, healthcare-seeking behavior, and financial risk protection. There are also persistent challenges regarding the affordability of services and the service readiness of facilities. Quality of care emerged as a concern due to the workload of healthcare providers and resource constraints. This baseline evaluation provides a critical reference point for measuring the effects of UHC reforms. This report should be paired with an end-line survey of the same sites to properly isolate the effects of the HCPN demonstration program as an intervention. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Universal Health Care;Health Care Provider Networks;decentralization;health;UHC |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-26 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Casas, Lyle Daryll D.; Hagag, Sarah Reem Hesham Mohamed; Ho, Frances Dominique V.; Medina, Rizel; Rodriguez, Henrietta Marie |
| Abstract: | In the Philippines, hospital efficiency and quality are rarely assessed due to the limited availability of administrative health data. An analysis of 37 million inpatient claims from PhilHealth (2018–2023) estimated hospital efficiency and quality nationwide. Findings revealed significant variations in efficiency based on hospital ownership, service capacity, and regional differences. Descriptive cost-efficiency indicators showed differences of 2 to 5 times, even after adjusting for case complexity. The stochastic frontier analysis revealed notable production inefficiencies, with public and private hospitals operating at efficiency levels ranging from 50 percent to 80 percent. This indicates potential underutilized capacity and opportunities for improvement, particularly in increasing the number of PhilHealth-covered admissions in private hospitals. Approximately 5 percent of PhilHealth claimants account for about 25 percent of total inpatient reimbursements by the Corporation, highlighting significant concerns regarding equity and efficiency. This pattern suggests that a small subset of patients, often those with complex or chronic conditions (i.e., noncommunicable diseases), disproportionately consume resources, potentially limiting coverage for the broader population's needs. In terms of quality, a modest level of readmissions, avoidable admissions, and hospital-acquired complications was observed, with variations depending on hospital type and service capacity. Admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions constitute roughly 30 percent of all admissions, a relatively high share that points to policy and programmatic gaps in hospital efficiency, primary healthcare, and the effectiveness of ambulatory care in hospitals. This report demonstrates the feasibility of using health insurance claims data to measure variations in hospital performance, particularly as the sector shifts toward value-based provider payment systems. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | universal health care;PhilHealth;hospital efficiency;inpatient;quality of care;high-cost users;readmissions;ambulatory care sensitive conditions;equity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-30 |
| By: | Ulep, ValerieGilbertT.; Casas, LyleDaryllD.; Flaminiano, ClarisaJoyA.; Dagoy, LouieIyarL.; Syling, JeremePaoloK; Dollente, YaddahShalomR.; Tan, LeifDarylC. |
| Abstract: | This report comprises three papers. The first paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the Human Resources for Health (HRH) remuneration system in the Philippines. The current stock of HRH, their economic contribution, and the governance and financing mechanisms that support workforce management are examined. The scope and coverage of HRH-related policies are assessed, and the accessibility of welfare services available to healthcare workers is evaluated. Policy and implementation challenges affecting the delivery of these services are identified. To achieve these objectives, a mixed-methods approach is employed, which includes the analysis of multiple administrative datasets and both primary and secondary surveys. The second paper explores policy options for promoting equitable remuneration in the context of ongoing health sector reforms, particularly the implementation of the Universal Health Care (UHC) Act. Potential budgetary costs of selected options are estimated, and lessons are drawn from other countries that have implemented similar reforms, such as changes in provider payment mechanisms, care integration, decentralization, and performance-based incentives aimed at improving service quality. The third paper examines the extent to which local government units comply with the Magna Carta of Public Health Workers (MCPHW) over time. The influence of LGUs’ fiscal capacity on compliance levels is estimated using a fixed-effects regression model. For this analysis, administrative data from the Department of Health, a merged dataset on MCPHW implementation, and supplementary data from various government sources are utilized. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | HRH;remuneration;Magna Carta of Public Health Workers;salary standardization;Philippines;Human Resources for Health |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-15 |
| By: | Kym Anderson; Roehlano Briones |
| Abstract: | For decades the Philippines has protected many of its farmers from import competition, taxed farm exports, and insulated domestic markets from fluctuations in international prices. Policy developments to the mid-1960s are summarized by Power (1971), and were updated to the mid2000s by David, Intal and Balisacan (2009). This paper looks at what has changed in terms of agricultural assistance and food market insulation in the two decades since then, with emphasis on the extent to which those rates of assistance have fluctuated from year to year with international price movements as governments attempted to stabilize the nation’s domestic prices of farm products, most notably for rice. Philippine policies have been similar to those of other food-importing countries in adopting farm-support policies but have been unusual in being so protectionist so early in the country’s economic development. The paper explores the prospect of re-purposing support away from price-distorting measures – which are highly inequitable – toward more-direct forms of support for just the poorest rural households and boosting investment in rural public goods such as infrastructure and agricultural research. The latter would benefit a larger proportion of rural people as well as reduce food prices in urban areas. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-12 |
| By: | Kustanto, Andi |
| Abstract: | The threat of tuberculosis (TB) persists globally, with 10 million individuals affected by the disease in 2018, resulting in 1.5 million deaths. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Indonesia ranks third in the world for TB cases. It is estimated that 845, 000 individuals in Indonesia were afflicted with TB, yet only 68 percent of these cases were identified and treated in 2018. This study evaluated the impact of socioeconomic factors on the prevalence of TB in 34 Indonesian provinces from to 2005-2018 period. The findings indicate that demographic factors, such as population size, population density, and number of impoverished individuals, are positively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. Conversely, GRDP per capita, the number of healthcare workers, and literacy rates were negatively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that population factors have influenced the increasing number of TB cases in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling population growth, high population density, and poverty must be the government’s focus to reduce new TB cases through family planning programs, transmigration programs to areas with low population density, and increased social assistance for the poor and vulnerable to improve their standard of living. Furthermore, the health infrastructure budget must be increased, the economy must remain competitive and secure, and investment in human capital must be continuously increased. |
| Keywords: | Tuberculosis, Socioeconomic, Population. Poverty, Health |
| JEL: | I14 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126466 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Casas, Lyle Daryll D.; Bagas, Joy; Manuel, Aaron Carlos G.; Mendoza, John Paulo D.; Dela Luna, Kim Leonard G. |
| Abstract: | This report assesses early childhood care and development (ECCD) in the Philippines, aiming to provide the Second Congressional Commission on Education of the Philippine Congress with empirical evidence to inform programmatic and legislative reforms. The assessment employs a comprehensive framework that analyzes Filipino children's health, nutrition, and early childhood education outcomes while examining their access to essential health, nutrition, and early childhood education services. Both demand- and supply-side inputs, such as governance, financing, infrastructure, and human resources, are analyzed to identify factors contributing to the poor and inequitable access to these basic services. Throughout the analysis, key principles for optimizing ECCD returns are highlighted: (1) delivering timely interventions during critical life stages; (2) ensuring comprehensive access to essential services; and (3) upholding quality standards that have far-reaching impacts on health, nutrition, and education outcomes. |
| Keywords: | EDCOM;Second Congressional Commission on Education;Early Childhood Care and Development;HEFP;ECCD;Health Economics and Finance Program |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2025-05 |
| By: | Daniela Cubas (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of living income (family living expenses) and living wage for rural Central Sulawesi, a major cocoa-producing area in Indonesia. The update for June 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in October 2022 (Kadarusman et al., 2022). |
| Keywords: | Living income, living wages, Anker Methodology, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250428 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Uy, Jhanna; Siy Van, Vanessa T.; Tomas, Therese Jules P. |
| Abstract: | In the Philippines, out-of-pocket or direct payments made by patients have persistently accounted for nearly half of the country’s health spending, indicating the financial burden experienced in accessing care. Since 2013, PhilHealth has paid accredited public and private providers for inpatient services using a case-based payment scheme called “All Case Rates” (ACR), which establishes a fixed case rate for the costs of treating a disease or procedure. Recognizing the limitations of ACR, PhilHealth was mandated to shift to a prospective payment system based on Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRG) for inpatient cases. Under DRG, patients are classified into groups based on demographic information, clinical presentations, and all procedures performed during their stay. Each DRG has an associated average payment amount that corresponds to the resources used to treat patients, depending on case complexity. Through a literature review and thematic analysis, the Philippine ACR was analyzed across six characteristics of provider payment systems: (1) sufficiency of payment rates, (2) bundling of services, (3) payment schedules, (4) performance measurement, (5) transparent adjustments, and (6) accountability mechanisms. The design and features of DRGs are also discussed by presenting how other countries navigated their transitions and highlighting lessons learned for Philippine implementation. This was supplemented by conducting quantitative analyses of available PhilHealth claims and financial data from 2024. As a result, the data used in the study is only up to 2023. The use of data from this period aligns with the study's goal to provide PhilHealth with a baseline on the features of ACR that could be improved by a DRG system. Three structural and design features of ACR were found to lead to inadequate and unresponsive payment rates: (1) The flat case rate per disease or procedure does not realistically reflect the services required to treat patients with varying clinical complexities, (2) Payment rates are not linked to hospitals’ organizational service utilization or performance in delivering quality healthcare, and (3) ACR lacks mechanisms for systematically updating payment rates, and opaque adjustment processes erode public trust in PhilHealth policies and reforms. Consequently, costs exceeding ACR payments are passed onto patients with comorbidities and severe illnesses—disproportionately affecting the poor, elderly, and those in conflict-affected areas. DRGs have the potential to transform the health financing system toward achieving universal healthcare goals. DRG-based payments account for the complexity of treatment and resource use associated with patients’ clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Coupled with a prospective global budget (spending target) based on facility case mix and patient volume, PhilHealth payments can incentivize the efficient and quality delivery of healthcare services. Updates or adjustments to the DRG classification scheme and payment rates are based on clear clinical criteria. Therefore, DRGs can provide PhilHealth with an opportunity to engage with different stakeholders and transparently report progress toward providing Filipinos with financial risk protection. The experiences of countries with advanced DRG systems demonstrate that successful adoption is not limited to developing technical capacity, such as the information technology needed to routinely collect hospital data, update the grouping software, and adjust payment rates. PhilHealth must implement adaptive solutions, such as emphasizing the importance of value-based care to providers and establishing a governance model to institutionalize DRGs. This will involve close collaboration with the Department of Health, an arms-length agency functioning as a case mix center, as well as engagement with providers, patient-interest groups, and the general public. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Diagnosis Related Groups;financial risk protection;provider payment mechanism;universal health coverage;healthcare costs;UHC |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-27 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Casas, Lyle Daryll D.; Bagas, Joy |
| Abstract: | To address the long-standing problem of malnutrition in the Philippines, adequate and efficient public spending is critical. However, monitoring health and nutrition spending remains a challenge in the country. Critical policy questions, such as the adequacy of public spending on nutrition and the efficiency of that spending, specifically whether resources are strategically allocated to cost-effective interventions, often go unanswered. To resolve this, a systematic and efficient tracking system is needed to obtain regular, reliable data on nutrition spending. This report proposes a framework for tagging nutrition expenditures of national government agencies. The framework was developed through an exhaustive literature review and validation sessions with government agencies. It consists of five levels of classification: Major Intervention Classification, Program Domains, Program Component Classification, and Specific Interventions. Furthermore, it includes three markers to group and tag nutrition-relevant line-item expenditures, focusing on malnutrition risk factors, nutrition intervention areas, and demographic groups. The national government can utilize this framework to assess the adequacy and efficiency of public spending on nutrition. It can also help determine the alignment of public spending with the Philippine Plan of Action for Nutrition and with reform actions such as the Universal Health Care Act and multisectoral and life-course approaches to health and nutrition. |
| Keywords: | nutrition;Philippines;HEFP;budget tagging;expenditure tracking;Health Economics and Finance Program |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2025-07 |
| By: | Ainul Mohsein Abdul Mohsin (School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Balqis Faqihah binti Rajak Author-2-Workplace-Name: "School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - This study aims to develop a conceptual framework that links strategic foresight, organizational agility, and innovative performance in the context of logistics SMEs in Malaysia. It highlights the increasing importance of foresight and agility as critical drivers for sustaining innovation and competitiveness in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. Methodology/Technique - The paper adopts a conceptual approach grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) and Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT). A quantitative cross-sectional survey is proposed for future empirical validation, with data analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Finding - The framework suggests that strategic foresight enables SMEs to anticipate technological, market, and policy changes, while organizational agility translates foresight into actionable strategies that enhance innovative performance. Agility is identified as a mediating factor in this relationship, reinforcing its role in driving innovation outcomes. Novelty - This study contributes to existing literature by integrating foresight and agility into a single framework tailored to logistics SMEs in Malaysia. It provides both theoretical contributions by extending RBV and DCT to SME contexts, and practical implications for managers and policymakers seeking to foster resilience, adaptability, and long-term innovation in the logistics sector. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Strategic foresight; Organizational agility; Innovative performance; Logistics SMEs; Malaysia; Resource-Based View; Dynamic Capabilities Theory. |
| JEL: | L25 L91 M10 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:gjbssr667 |
| By: | Ghosn, Fadi; Zreik, Mohamad; Awad, Ghina; Karouni, George |
| Abstract: | In the evolving landscape of global energy dynamics, Malaysia stands as a pivotal example of a nation actively transitioning towards renewable energy and sustainable development. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Malaysia's energy sector transformation, underpinned by the government's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. The objective of this research is to delve into the intricacies, opportunities, and challenges of steering Malaysia towards a greener future, with a particular focus on the shift from reliance on fossil fuels to the adoption of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and biomass. Employing a mixed-method approach, this study synthesizes existing literature, policy documents, and case studies to examine the current state and historical context of energy use in Malaysia, analyze government initiatives and policy frameworks, explore technological advancements, and assess the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the energy transition. Results indicate that despite facing challenges such as financial investment, technological advancement, and public acceptance, collaborative efforts between the government, private sector, and communities have led to significant progress in promoting renewable energy. The paper concludes that Malaysia's energy transition represents a critical step towards achieving a balance between economic growth and environmental preservation, setting a precedent for sustainable development in the Southeast Asian region. This transition is not only essential for climate change mitigation but also presents opportunities for economic diversification, energy security, and social inclusivity. The study ultimately calls for continued innovation, supportive policies, and international cooperation to overcome remaining barriers and fully realize the potential of renewable energy in Malaysia. |
| Keywords: | Malaysia, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Development, Energy Security, Climate Change Mitigation. |
| JEL: | O1 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126301 |
| By: | Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wages for rural areas in the provinces of Roi Et and Nakhon Phanom, Thailand, where tobacco and rice are grown. Since there was virtually no inflation and no changes in payroll deductions between the original Anker living wage study conducted in December 2024 (Kulkolkarn and Delajara, 2024) and June 2025, no adjustment for inflation or taxes was necessary. However, the appreciation of the Thai baht has resulted in changes to the living income and living wage when expressed in US. |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Thailand |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250456 |
| By: | Lim, Valerie L.; Marasigan, Arlyne C.; Sinsay-Villanueva, Leih Maruss; Garcia, Glenda Darlene V.; Tanyag, Ivan Harris; Berroya, Jenard D.; Mejia, Ivy P.; De Vera, Jayson L.; Serafico-Reyes, Nikolee Marie A.; Castulo, Nilo J.; De Pano, Cathlene; Aquino, John Michael D. |
| Abstract: | The Localization Law (Republic Act [RA] 8190) aims to improve educational equity by emphasizing the recruitment of teachers from local communities, promoting cultural congruence, and reducing relocation expenses. Although RA 8190 has been in effect since 1996, challenges in filling teacher vacancies persist. This study employed a descriptive qualitative research design, using document analysis, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions with school administrators and teachers to assess the law's effectiveness and efficiency. Results highlighted that the law has evolved over time to establish a clear geographic hiring hierarchy while balancing local preference with subject specialization needs, particularly for priority programs supported by mechanisms like transfer priority and teacher ranking. Its implementation reveals significant limitations, such as mismatches in teacher specialization, prolonged recruitment procedures, and a lack of effective monitoring and assessment mechanisms. The observed inconsistencies significantly affected teacher applicants and the school-level hiring and recruitment processes. This necessitates further improvement in the implementation of the law to enhance its effectiveness and efficiency. Therefore, it is essential to amend the law to ensure that its practice is monitored and evaluated to address the current challenges. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Localization Law;teacher recruitment;decentralization;educational equity;policy and practice |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-23 |
| By: | Hishamuddin Abdul Wahab ("Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, 71800, Bandar Baru Nilai, Malaysia " Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - The study examines the relationship between foreign exchange risk and hedging strategies across multiple time horizons using a wavelet multiscaling approach involving nine listed healthcare firms in Malaysia. Methodology/Technique – The study involves a 3-stage analysis, where the first stage adopts the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) technique for time series decomposition. The second stage focuses on assessing scale-dependent foreign currency risk. The third stage employs cross-sectional regression analysis to determine the impact of various hedging strategies on foreign exchange risk at each time scale, spanning the period from January 2019 to December 2022. Findings – The study reveals that exchange rate risk increases non-monotonically across time scales and intensifies with a longer time horizon, indicating increased vulnerability of firm value to foreign exchange risk over time. For the risk-hedging relationship, the study identifies that foreign currency derivatives (FCDs) are effective in managing short-term exposure, while the effectiveness of long-term exposure remains inconclusive. Given the significant time scale effect in exchange risk pricing, the study suggests that the risk management framework should integrate time horizon considerations to enhance the effectiveness of hedging strategies. Novelty – The study integrates the application of the wavelet technique in quantifying foreign currency risk, assisting corporate managers and market players in managing foreign exchange risk over a defined time frame. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Currency risk; multi-horizon exchange rate; Healthcare Sectors; Wavelet Analysis; MODWT. |
| JEL: | F31 F39 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr230 |
| By: | Santos, Kevin Carl P.; Cagasan, Louie P. Jr.; Loberiza, Karizza Bianca; Tenorio, Alvin D.; Gonzales, Ann Jelin G.; Lapitan, May Ann B. |
| Abstract: | This study comprehensively evaluates the national assessments administered by the Department of Education’s Bureau of Education Assessment (DepEd-BEA) to determine their effectiveness in measuring learning outcomes, along with an analysis of related practices such as test development, analysis, dissemination, and utilization of results. It begins by benchmarking current assessment practices against international standards to identify gaps and areas for enhancement. The study then examines the assessment framework to determine the extent to which the National Achievement Tests capture 21st-century skills in addition to traditional learning areas. The exit assessments are also analyzed using both Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory approaches to evaluate their quality in terms of item difficulty and discrimination. Additionally, skill audits and standard-setting activities were conducted to investigate BEA’s scoring procedures. To gain deeper insights into system operations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were carried out to explore existing quality assurance mechanisms and how assessment results are communicated and utilized by DepEd stakeholders and the wider community. In conclusion, the study provides targeted recommendations to improve test development, strengthen quality assurance processes, and enhance the utilization and dissemination of assessment data, thereby supporting improved learning outcomes and evidence-based policy reforms. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | assessment;psychometrics;standard setting;learning outcomes |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-25 |
| By: | Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Lingatong, Edmar E.; Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L.; Perez, Tania Dew S.; Daga, Erwin Doroteo Justien C.; Paquibot, Jesusa L. |
| Abstract: | This study details and reflects on the modifications made to the Framework Method for qualitative data analysis (QDA) of large-scale triadic interviews with education stakeholders. The QDA is part of the early assessment and impact evaluation of a curriculum revision that employed a mixed-methods design, including a teacher survey, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Participants were selected from schools sampled for the assessment using a cluster randomized design, which assigned schools to either the treatment or control curriculum. Given the volume of interview data and the diversity of the team, high intercoder and intracoder reliability (ICR) was aimed for when creating and applying the analytical framework, or coding tree, during data condensation and analysis. Clearly defining codes with inclusion and exclusion boundaries, segmenting the transcripts, and memoing were key processes that enhanced ICR. Evaluating the application and performance of the codes using Fleiss Kappa improved the communicability, consistency, and transparency of the working analytical framework. Memoing also helped trace points of interpretive divergence among the coding team. After coding, the segmented data was indexed in a framework matrix, utilizing relatively accessible or free tools to organize, display, and interpret the data. Through these procedures, the aim was to meet the consolidated standards for reporting qualitative data (COREQ). Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | framework method;mixed methods research;intercoder reliability;intracoder reliability;curriculum revision |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-24 |
| By: | Chun Chet Ng; Wei Zeng Low; Yin Yin Boon |
| Abstract: | Despite accounting for 96.1% of all businesses in Malaysia, access to financing remains one of the most persistent challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Newly established or young businesses are often excluded from formal credit markets as traditional underwriting approaches rely heavily on credit bureau data. This study investigates the potential of bank statement data as an alternative data source for credit assessment to promote financial inclusion in emerging markets. Firstly, we propose a cash flow-based underwriting pipeline where we utilise bank statement data for end to end data extraction and machine learning credit scoring. Secondly, we introduce a novel dataset of 611 loan applicants from a Malaysian lending institution. Thirdly, we develop and evaluate credit scoring models based on application information and bank transaction-derived features. Empirical results show that the use of such data boosts the performance of all models on our dataset, which can improve credit scoring for new-to-lending MSMEs. Lastly, we intend to release the anonymised bank transaction dataset to facilitate further research on MSMEs financial inclusion within Malaysia's emerging economy. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.16066 |
| By: | Lee Van ("Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia " Author-2-Name: Thoo Ai Chin Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - The transition toward sustainable development in the manufacturing industry increasingly depends on integrating circular economy practices, enabled by green supply chain collaboration. However, despite growing attention to circular economy implementation, research on it that relates to green supply chain collaboration remains limited. This study investigates circular economy practices with a particular focus on the determinants of supplier, customer, and internal collaboration within manufacturing organizations. Methodology/Technique – A structured review was conducted on articles published between 2022 and 2025 in the Web of Science database, resulting in 48 studies identified through abstract screening and full-text review. The findings reveal a clear upward trend in research interest, with publications doubling from 9 in 2022 to a peak of 18 in 2024. Findings – Notably, the most frequently examined indicators include supplier awareness, customer awareness, and cross-functional cooperation for supplier, customer, and internal collaboration, respectively. Other factors, such as environmental management certifications and solutions, also contribute to effective circular economy implementation. Based on these insights, future research is encouraged to explore collaborative dynamics in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and emerging economies, where resource constraints and institutional differences present unique challenges. Novelty – Additionally, the role of digital technologies in enhancing transparency, trust, and coordination among supply chain actors warrants further investigation. In conclusion, this study highlights the strategic importance of fostering collaboration across the supply chain to accelerate the adoption of circular economies and build more sustainable and resilient manufacturing systems. Type of Paper - Review" |
| Keywords: | customer awareness, cross-functional cooperation, digital technologies, environmental management certifications, green supply chain collaboration, supplier awareness. |
| JEL: | L25 L60 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr231 |
| By: | Brian Godwin Lim; Dominic Dayta; Benedict Ryan Tiu; Renzo Roel Tan; Len Patrick Dominic Garces; Kazushi Ikeda |
| Abstract: | The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15938 |
| By: | Xiao, Leon Y. (IT University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Background: Playing video games is a popular activity globally across age groups. Concerns have been raised about potentially problematic engagement both in terms of spending too much time (‘gaming disorder’ as defined by the World Health Organization) and money, including on gambling-like in-game purchases, such as loot boxes. Giving games different advisory age ratings based on their potentially problematic content and advising consumers and parents as to what age group the game is suitable for is a non-restrictive policy approach that is widely adopted internationally. In contrast, aiming to address ‘internet addiction’ and ‘excessive monetary spending, ’ East Asian countries have adopted (and in the South Korean case since repealed) stricter legal restrictions on how long and when young people can play video games for and how much money they are permitted to spend. These restrictions are enforced by software means through age assurance and identity verification procedures. A prominent example is how Mainland China restricts under-18s from playing online games except for one hour only between 8–9 PM on Fridays, weekends, and public holidays. Different monetary spending limits are also imposed against children based on age groups. Previous research presented conflicting evidence as to whether restrictions on gameplay time were beneficial, suggesting some young people circumvent the restrictions. Objective: Policy implementation evidence can inform both future domestic and international policymaking (including repealing ineffective policies). Whether and how major technology companies implement age ratings, age assurance, and identity verification procedures to enforce video game-related regulatory restrictions in Mainland China were novelly assessed. Methods: The 100 highest-grossing Mainland Chinese iPhone games on 5 January 2024 per data.ai formed the sample. For each game, any age rating-related information was recorded, and the presence of any identity verification procedure was determined through content analysis of the account creation process. Results: Confusingly, two age rating systems often providing conflicting information were presented simultaneously to Mainland Chinese consumers. As required, 95.0% of games conducted identity verification. However, 5.0% of games were accessible without the user having been required to complete identity verification processes, in breach of regulations. Conclusions: The implementation of a single, unified, and culturally appropriate age rating system that includes an adult-only rating would ensure better child protection. The currently widely adopted identity verification process has many flaws, including being easily circumventable. Actionable improvements, such as transmitting sensitive personal data only to a third-party identity verification provider rather than many individual video game companies, are recommended. The age assurance-related policy implementation insights from the Mainland Chinese video game restriction context are also relevant to technology regulation globally: many other countries are depending on such software solutions to address online harms young people might encounter, ranging from pornography to online gambling. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:uqbf9_v2 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha; Pillai, Shikha |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs' (UNOOSA’s) 2025 Landmark Study, which documents women's 30 percent global workforce share in public space agencies—declining to 19 percent on boards—this paper applies gender budgeting framework to diagnose fiscal policy imperatives in the Department of Space (DoS), India. Aligning with the foundational principles of the UN Outer Space Treaty (1967), which mandates equitable benefits from space exploration "for all people, " and with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (quality education), 5 (gender equality), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), and 17 (partnerships for the goals), this analysis underscores the scope of gender budgeting as a fiscal accountability tool for inclusive growth in emerging space economies. We analysed the Space budgets across 20 space centres in India, and also across 41 sanctioned Space projects to understand the fiscal incidence and marksmanship in space technology (e.g., launch vehicles, propulsion systems) and space applications (e.g., Earth observation, communication satellites). Despite the absence of specifically targeted programmes for women in the space sector within the Ministry of Finance’s Gender Budgeting Statement 2025-26, our ex-post fiscal incidence analysis reveals that ISRO's significant achievements are inherently women-inclusive in their outcomes, despite workforce underrepresentation. Key findings highlight marked variations in the gender disaggregated fiscal incidence, with utilisation rates ranged from a low of 10.9 percent at IN-SPACe to 21 percent at Vikram Sarabai Space Centre (VSSC) and 32 percent at UR Rao Satellite Centre (URSC). Fiscal marksmanship analysis reveals the deviations between Budget Estimates and Actuals are relatively insignificant in space sector. Integrating results-linked gender budgeting into space policy is crucial, which emerges as a dual lever for equity—ensuring women's voice in high impact decision-making—and efficiency, by harnessing diverse perspectives to optimise resource allocation and innovation trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Gender budgeting, space sector, fiscal incidence, Sustainable Development Goals, STEM |
| JEL: | H50 J16 O38 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126617 |
| By: | Ragasa, Catherine; Kyle, Jordan; Yasmin, Sabina; Pande, Harshita; Basu, Sampurna; Sharma, Aanshi; Najjar, Dina |
| Abstract: | Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; capacity development; decision making; women's empowerment; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:173280 |
| By: | Kenta YAMANOUCHI; Hiroko OKUDAIRA; Miho TAKIZAWA; Kaoru HOSONO |
| Abstract: | Employers respond to minimum wage hikes by reducing employment, accepting lower profits, or passing costs on to consumers or suppliers. Identifying which margin dominates is key to understanding who bears the cost of the minimum wage. We examine this incidence in Japan’s manufacturing sector, where exporters faced international competition and non-exporters until recently contended with persistently stagnant domestic prices. Using establishment-level data, we find robust evidence of a contraction in factor inputs but no clear cost pass-through to product prices. These results imply that higher labor costs were largely borne by firms and workers, particularly in settings with limited scope for pass-through. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25100 |
| By: | SAITO, Makoto |
| Abstract: | Chien et al. (2025) state controversially that the Japanese government has exploited available arbitrage opportunities, and that it has backed its huge liabilities by high 𝛽 financial assets and fiscal claims. A major empirical ground for their statement is that the government reduced its net liabilities substantially by earning enormous capital gains from domestic and foreign risky assets from the mid-2010s through to the mid-2020s. Employing a net liability version of the primary fiscal balance (PFB), we prove theoretically that only if arbitrage opportunities are available to the government, high 𝛽 assets and claims the government is currently holding may improve the discounted PFB. However, we empirically demonstrate that there is no strong evidence for the presence of arbitrage opportunities for the government, and that its net positions bear at most moderate 𝛽 . These theoretical and empirical findings contradict Chien et al.’s statement. |
| Keywords: | primary fiscal balance, fiscal sustainability, net liability dynamics, 𝛽-CAPM |
| JEL: | E63 G12 H62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-153 |
| By: | Yan Liang |
| Abstract: | Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy--namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is present, consumer demand has been improving as the property market stabilized and policies to bolster domestic demand were and continue to be effective in reflating the economy. China's debt is predominantly internal and semi-public; the central government could leverage up to resolve the local government debt conundrum. A talent dividend and employment optimization could offset the dissipating population dividend; and finally, China's high-quality opening, its participation in the multilateral system and its meaningful engagement with the Global South help counteract the decoupling/de-risking strategies of the US. In sum, while challenges abound, China's sound economic foundations and sensible developmental and macroeconomic policies help to propel economic growth, structural transformation, and green transition. |
| Keywords: | China; Economic Recovery; Public Debt; Government Debt; Job guarantee; Financial Structure; Economic Collapse |
| JEL: | O20 O53 E12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1077 |
| By: | HASUI, Kohei; TERANISHI, Yuki |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s “Inflation-Overshooting Commitment” can work to raise inflation rates by over 2 percent to end the zero interest rate policy or whether cost-push shocks luckily give a chance of high inflation rates for the BOJ to escape a liquidity trap. We show that the Taylor-type rule can not replicate inflation overshooting, even though the zero interest rate policy continues as the BOJ’s monetary policy. However, the Taylor-type rule achieves about a 2 percent target in the end, and the cost-push shocks work as good luck to induce high inflation data and justify the escape from a liquidity trap. In the case of the price-level targeting policy, inflation rates increase by more than 2 percent, and the zero interest rate policy continues even after inflation rates sufficiently exceed 2 percent. Under the price-level targeting policy, the cost-push shocks give little good luck in terminating the zero interest rate policy earlier. Our simulation results imply that the BOJ successfully excludes the effect of positive cost-push shocks to implement the exit policy and conducts the history-dependent policy under inflation-overshooting commitment. Our results do not change for a variety of Japanese parameters for the anchored level of inflation rate, elasticity of demand to real interest rate, and inflation persistence. Moreover, the augmented Taylor-type rule with a strong history dependence can work as a price-level targeting policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, commitment, liquidity trap |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-149 |
| By: | ., Kaustubh; Gopalakrishnan, Pawan Gopalakrishnan; Ranjan, Abhishek Ranjan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve accounting for the unexpected large shocks such as Covid-19. The recent pandemic distorted the estimates of the output gap derived using the regular trend cycle decomposition of GDP (HP Filter, BP Filter, Kalman Filter). We propose a modified unobserved components model (UCM) by introducing an additional Student-t distributed irregular component in the trend cycle decomposition of GDP, which successfully isolates transitory shocks like COVID-19 from trend and cycle estimates. We also construct a model-based measure of inflation expectations that captures adaptive learning from a long inflation history and real-time updating during the pandemic. For India, we find a stable linear NKPC. Our results demonstrate that accounting for fat-tailed events is crucial for obtaining reliable Phillips curve estimates in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Philips Curve, Potential Growth, Output Gap, Inflation Expectations, Unobserved Components Model, Kalman Filter, Almon Lag |
| JEL: | C51 C60 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126329 |
| By: | Amarendra Mohan (IIT Kharagpur); Ameer Tamoor Khan (University of Copenhagen); Shuai Li (University of Oulu); Xinwei Cao (Jiangnan University); Zhibin Li (Chengdu University of Information Technology) |
| Abstract: | Cross-market portfolio optimization has become increasingly complex with the globalization of financial markets and the growth of high-frequency, multi-dimensional datasets. Traditional artificial neural networks, while effective in certain portfolio management tasks, often incur substantial computational overhead and lack the temporal processing capabilities required for large-scale, multi-market data. This study investigates the application of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) for cross-market portfolio optimization, leveraging neuromorphic computing principles to process equity data from both the Indian (Nifty 500) and US (S&P 500) markets. A five-year dataset comprising approximately 1, 250 trading days of daily stock prices was systematically collected via the Yahoo Finance API. The proposed framework integrates Leaky Integrate-andFire neuron dynamics with adaptive thresholding, spike-timingdependent plasticity, and lateral inhibition to enable event-driven processing of financial time series. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through hierarchical clustering, while populationbased spike encoding and multiple decoding strategies support robust portfolio construction under realistic trading constraints, including cardinality limits, transaction costs, and adaptive risk aversion. Experimental evaluation demonstrates that the SNN-based framework delivers superior risk-adjusted returns and reduced volatility compared to ANN benchmarks, while substantially improving computational efficiency. These findings highlight the promise of neuromorphic computation for scalable, efficient, and robust portfolio optimization across global financial markets. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15921 |
| By: | Tanweer Akram; Khawaja Mamun |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar-denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of the current short-term interest rate and other relevant macro-financial variables on interest rate swap yields. It shows that the current short-term interest rate is a crucial driver of the swap yields of different maturity tenors. Similar patterns of interest rate swaps denominated in other hard currencies, such as the US dollar, euro, British pound sterling, and Japanese yen, have been discerned in previous empirical research testing the Keynesian hypothesis, which maintains that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term interest rate. Thus, the findings of this paper lend additional support to the Keynesian hypothesis by showing that the same pattern holds for CAD interest rate swap yields. The results obtained in the paper can be useful for portfolio managers, corporate leaders, and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Canadian Dollar Swaps; Interest Rate Swap Yields; Short-Term Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Bank of Canada |
| JEL: | E43 E50 E60 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1072 |
| By: | Ashutosh Yadav (Patna, India); Bright Akwasi Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Deepak Kumar Behera (Patna, India) |
| Abstract: | In the context of sustainable development, this study investigates the intricate dynamics among good governance, renewable energy investment, and green finance in BRICS nations. The aim of the study is to assess how green finance and governance effectiveness moderate the impact of renewable energy investment on CO2 emissions. Utilizing the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model, a meticulous analysis spanning two decades was conducted to unravel the relationships among key variables and CO2 emissions. The findings underscore a nuanced interplay where renewable energy investments, synergized with robust governance and strategic green finance, significantly mitigate CO2 emissions, contributing to sustainable economic development. However, the study reveals non-linear relationships, highlighting the necessity for optimal allocation and strategic planning to maximize environmental benefits. In the short-run, a government effectiveness policy threshold that should be attained in order for renewable energy investment to reduce CO2 emissions is provided. In the long-run, the negative responsiveness of CO2 emissions to renewable energy investment is further consolidated by green finance. Moreover, enhancing renewable energy investment in the long run is positive for environmental sustainability. It follows that policy makers should tailor policies aimed at enhancing renewable energy investment in the long-run as well as complementing renewable energy investment with green finance in the long-run in order to ensure environmental sustainability by means of reducing CO2 emissions. Policymakers in BRICS nations are urged to strengthen governance structures, promote renewable energy investments, leverage green finance, foster public-private partnerships, adopt a holistic approach, and address non-linear effects to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development, Governance, Renewable Energy Investment, BRICS and CS-ARDL |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/014 |
| By: | MUKHERJEE, Atri; Behera, Samir Ranjan; Yadav, Kovuri Akash; Saha, Debapriya |
| Abstract: | Climate change presents a growing threat to India's macro-financial outlook, with significant implications at the subnational level. This study compiles the data on climate-related expenditure by 31 Indian States and Union Territories from 2004-05 to 2022-23. The State governments, on an average, spend 1.1 per cent of their GSDP and 7.3 per cent of total expenditure on climate-related activities. A dynamic panel regression identifies fiscal capacity, intergovernmental transfers, and expenditure persistence as key determinants of climate spending of States, whereas climate vulnerability plays a limited role. The paper also reviews the current sources of climate financing of the States and explores the opportunities to scale up financing through various alternative channels. It underscores the need for strengthening institutional capacity and use of strategic fiscal tools to enhance climate responsiveness of States. |
| Keywords: | Green budgeting, Climate budget tagging, Climate expenditure, Climate finance, Environmental transfers, Fiscal decentralization, Indian States |
| JEL: | H7 H72 H76 H77 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126438 |
| By: | Bright A. Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Divine Q. Agozie (Accra, Ghana); Ernest B. Ali (Accra, Ghana); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The effectiveness of autocracies and democracies (i.e., governance indicators are compared in the present study) with reference to strengths and weaknesses in environmental objectives. This analysis explores the effect of autocracy, democracy, as well as the trend of globalization on CO2 emissions for open and closed economies from 1990 to 2020. Crucial indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy and non-renewable energy are controlled for while examining the roles of economic expansion on the disaggregated energy consumption portfolios for both open and closed economies. The empirical analysis revealed some insightful results. First, for the open economies, with the expectation of non-renewable energy which show a positive significant impact on emissions, all variables show a negative effect on emissions. Furthermore, the closed economies result indicate that, apart from renewable energy which has a negative relationship with emissions, all the variables including the interaction terms have a positive relation with emissions. However, an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis was validated for both economies. |
| Keywords: | Open economies, closed economies, democracy, autocracy, Environmental Kuznets Curve, globalization index, environmental sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/018 |
| By: | Sachiko KAZEKAMI |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of globalization on domestic urbanization and employment structures in the non-manufacturing sector. Despite its significance, this area has been understudied because of data limitations. Diverse transactions and expansion without capital investments make services difficult to capture in official statistics. However, services comprise 80% of employment in advanced economies. While data constraints remain, this study improves estimation precision by using firm-level data on overseas investments and actual domestic employment, rather than relying on proxy allocations based on regional employment shares. The analysis utilizes Japanese data from 2005 to 2020, examined by employment areas, and employs panel fixed-effects models with instrumental variables. In the information and communications industry, globalization is associated with an increase in employment, especially among female, college-educated, and regular employees, driven by inflows and increased labor participation, indicating job creation accompanied by a reallocation of human resources. Conversely, in the academic research and professional and technical services industry, foreign labor substitutes for domestic labor, resulting in lower wages. Meanwhile, the accommodation and food services sector saw employment growth but a decrease in wages, without labor migration. While the manufacturing sector showed few significant effects, beyond these examples, the non-manufacturing sector exhibited diverse spillover effects on employment, mobility, and wages. The pathways through which globalization affects regional communities—such as through the reallocation of human resources and changes in employment conditions—have not been fully captured by conventional manufacturing-focused perspectives. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25099 |
| By: | SUNAKAWA, Takeki |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics., First draft: July 2005. This draft: September 2025 |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Fiscal Theory of Price Level, Japan |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-151 |
| By: | FUJIKI, Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the future evolution of cash demand in Japan, amid rapid demographic aging and the increasing adoption of cashless payments. Despite a decline in cash use for daily transactions, aggregate cash demand has remained stable, likely due to cash hoarding by older generations. Using survey data from 2021 that separates cash held for daily use and hoarding purposes by age group, we project cash demand through 2070. Our baseline scenario assumes constant cash-holding behavior by cohort, while an alternative scenario incorporates reductions reflecting the spread of cashless payments. Adjustments for the underrepresentation of high-cash-holding households are made using methodologies from the distributional national wealth literature, which employs Pareto distributions to align microdata with aggregate statistics. Results suggest that cash on hand (COH) will decline by 1.5%–2.4% annually, and cash at home (CAH) by about 1% annually. The rate of decrease in cash demand is faster than the population decrease of 0.7%, as we assume that future older individuals will hoard less cash than current older individuals, and future younger individuals will use less cash for day-to-day payment due to the spread of cashless payments. We find that a 1% rise in deposit rates would cause a 20% decrease in CAH demand, a much stronger effect than demographic aging. Finally, we discuss the implications for the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, as declining cash demand could increase the Bank’s cost burden during monetary tightening. |
| Keywords: | cash demand, population aging, demographic changes, cashless payment methods, cash hoarding |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-145 |
| By: | Sun, Yiyang |
| Abstract: | Yang, drawing on his inframarginal economics framework, argued that China's dual-track reforms would fail without constitutional shock therapy, predicting that the absence of proper institutional transitions would lead to corruption and economic stagnation. Conversely, Lin's New Structural Economics advocated for gradual reform based on comparative advantages, arguing that late-comers could benefit by developing industries aligned with their factor endowments. This essay examines the 2002 to 2003 debate between economists Justin Yifu Lin and Xiaokai Yang regarding China's economic reforms and late-comer advantages. Through an analysis of recent empirical evidence (2020-2025), this essay demonstrates that Yang's predictions largely failed to materialize: China's dual-track system succeeded despite lacking constitutional transformation, with state-owned enterprises contributing positively to growth and anti-corruption campaigns improving productivity. However, Lin's framework also proves insufficient in explaining China's success. The paper concludes that economic forecasting necessarily sacrifices scientific rigor in favor of broad generalizations, suggesting that economics should focus on explaining existing phenomena rather than predicting uncertain futures. |
| Keywords: | later-comer advantage/disadvantage; constitutional transition; Chinese economy; dual-track reforms; empirical revolution |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129935 |
| By: | Babbar, Karan; Ojha, Manini |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of usage of period products and reproductive tract infections (RTI) utilizing the National Family Health Survey-5 conducted in 2019-21 for India. Exploiting the exogenous variation in the average exposure of women in neighbouring households to television, we utilize an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach to address the endogeneity concerns present in an OLS framework. Conditional on comprehensive set of controls, we find that usage of period products reduces the likelihood of contracting any form of RTI by 16 percentage points. Our results are robust to various sample restrictions, alternative methods of estimation and the inclusion of additional controls. We also estimate the bounds of our effects by assuming the IV to be plausibly exogenous, where we relax the exogeneity condition. Policy implications suggest that enhancing access to information on menstrual health and hygiene through television could be an effective strategy to promote the adoption of hygienic practices and reduce RTIs. While the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the decline in RTI attributed to period products is pervasive across caste, class and wealth levels, the effect for rural women and those in the age group of 20-24 years highlights the need of reaching these populations with information and support. |
| Keywords: | Reproductive Tract Infections, Period Products, Menstruation, Menstrual Health and Hygiene, NFHS-5, India |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1684 |
| By: | SEKINE, Toshitaka; WADA, Tetsuro |
| Abstract: | During the chronic deflation era starting in the 1990s, Japanese inflation expectations were said to be firmly anchored at a very low level, say, around zero. These expectations seemed to have become something like the social norm. Households were quite against any price hikes, and as a consequence, firms hesitated to raise their prices — when they raised prices, they apologized for their misbehavior. People not only expected that prices would not increase, but also believed that prices should not increase. That social norm may have changed in response to inflationary shocks after COVID-19 and the Ukraine war. We applied a natural language processing technique to tweets that commented on price hikes and found an increase in posts after 2021 that accepted price hikes for various goods. Some of these posts indicated even positive feelings and mentioned salary hikes. |
| Keywords: | tweet, natural language processing, sentiment analysis, inflation expectation, monetary policy, Japan |
| JEL: | C0 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-150 |
| By: | SAKURAGAWA, Masaya; SAKURAGAWA, Yukie |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a growth theory that enable us to study fiscal policies in economies of low interest rates on debt. In order to explain low interest rates, we introduce financial frictions, namely, uninsurable idiosyncratic risk in capital income and borrowing constraints faced by firms, into a standard endogenous growth model. Interest rates on debt can fall below the economic growth rate, and then the government can sustain debt by running primary deficits. Low interest rates on debt arise from the shortage in liquidity, and thus those low rates are associated with low investment and slow economic growth. The choice faced by the government is either the set of deficits and slow growth or the set of surpluses and fast growth. We show that the current Japanese economy falls into a region of liquidity shortage. We evaluate fiscal policies at aiming fiscal surpluses above zero from the perspective of our model. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-152 |
| By: | KOIKE-MORI, Yasutaka; OKUMURA, Koki |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how production networks shape firms’ R&D decisions and the resulting aggregate inefficiencies. We develop a dynamic model in which firms form supply chains through a persistent matching process and rely on those links to trade both existing products and newly developed products from R&D. The model features two sources of misallocation: market-power distortions and a network-formation externality. The second novel externality leads firms to fail to internalize that their R&D makes them more attractive to potential partners. We estimate the model using Japanese firm-to-firm transaction and patent data and show that the first-best allocation lies close to the decentralized outcome. Market-power corrections raise R&D incentives for older firms by relieving double marginalization along their long supply chains. Instead, internalizing the network-formation externality tilts R&D toward younger firms that expand their supply chains rapidly. These opposing forces largely offset each other, leaving the planner’s allocation near the decentralized one. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:e-2025-01 |
| By: | Melosi, Leonardo (European University Institute and CEPR); Morita, Hiroshi (Tokyo Institute of Technology); Rogantini Picco, Anna (European Central Bank and CEPR); Zanetti, Francesco (University of Oxford and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions. We introduce a method to identify fiscal news with different degrees of signaling effects and find that such effects weaken or, in extreme cases, even completely undermine the stabilizing impact of the announcements. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; macroeconomic stabilization; uncertainty; imperfect information |
| JEL: | D83 E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0455 |
| By: | SUI, Qing-yuan |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the impact of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy on the lending behaviors of regional banks during the period of quantitative easing (QE). We focus particularly on the credit supply from banks to different industries or sectors, with an emphasis on manufacturing and real estate-related industries. Our results indicate that the BOJ’s QE policy promoted bank lending to the estate-related industries or sectors but not to the manufacturing industry. Our findings align with recent studies on the limitations of overall credit supply in influencing the business cycle and economic growth. Furthermore, Our results suggest that the BOJ has limited ability to halt the recession through lending channels under the QE policy. |
| Keywords: | quantitative easing, bank lending, regional banks, excess reserve, dynamic panel model |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-144 |
| By: | SHIRATSUKA, Shigenori |
| Abstract: | An exit strategy from large-scale unconventional monetary policy requires central banks to adjust their policy interest rates and the size of their balance sheet. Adjustments of policy interest rates are carried out using neutral interest rates as a guidepost, even in the presence of measurement uncertainty. In contrast, adjustments of balance sheet size, or quantitative tightening (QT), are implemented through trial and error without any standardized guideposts. In this paper, I will develop a guidepost for the QT process in Japan. To that end, I will examine the long-term level of the balance sheet size of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), based on the estimation results for the nonlinear shape of the reserve demand curve. I will then carry out a simulation analysis of the transition path of the BOJ’s holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). I will also address concerns over the boundary between fiscal financing and monetary policy by proposing the “extended banknote rules, ” both in the long term and in the transition. |
| Keywords: | Central bank balance sheet, New conventional monetary policy, Liquidity effects, Quantitative tightening, Extended banknote rule |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-146 |
| By: | UGAI, Hiroshi; OSADA, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines liquidity dependence in the Japanese banking system. Acharya and Rajan (2024) and Acharya et al. (2024) pointed out the phenomenon of liquidity dependence, which was observed during the U.S. quantitative easing and tightening policies and is regarded as a possible factor in liquidity crises in September 2019 and March 2023 crises in the U.S. Since quantitative easing was introduced in March 2001, the Japanese economy has experienced a more than 20-year period of quantitative easing, longer than that encountered in the U.S. Our macro and micro analysis employs more than 20 years of macroeconomic and bank-level accounting data and reveals that the same liquidity dependence phenomenon is observed in the Japanese economy. The Japanese broad deposit insurance system is superior to that in the United States, so an incident like the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy is unlikely to occur in Japan. However, partly with the rise of digital banking, we suggest that the Japanese economy needs to prepare for the impending major quantitative tightening—the so-called exit from the long-term quantitative easing policy. |
| Keywords: | Bank of Japan, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, deposits, financial fragility, monetary policy |
| JEL: | G01 G2 E5 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-147 |
| By: | Shigenori Shiratsuka (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | An exit strategy from large-scale unconventional monetary policy requires central banks to adjust their policy interest rates and the size of their balance sheet. Adjustments of policy interest rates are carried out using neutral interest rates as a guidepost, even in the presence of measurement uncertainty. In contrast, adjustments of balance sheet size, or quantitative tightening (QT), are implemented through trial and error without any standardized guideposts. In this paper, I will develop a guidepost for the QT process in Japan. To that end, I will examine the long-term level of the balance sheet size of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), based on the estimation results for the nonlinear shape of the reserve demand curve. I will then carry out a simulation analysis of the transition path of the BOJ's holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). I will also address concerns over the boundary between fiscal financing and monetary policy by proposing the "extended banknote rules, " both in the long term and in the transition. |
| Keywords: | Central bank balance sheet, New conventional monetary policy, Liquidity effects, Quantitative tightening, Extended banknote rule |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-023 |
| By: | Hiroaki MASUHARA; Kei HOSOYA |
| Abstract: | During the summer of 2021 in Japan, COVID-19 patients faced admission difficulties despite beds being available due to capacity mismatches. This study analyzes hospital admission patterns during the Omicron variant expansion (December 2021–March 2022), focusing on institutional ownership of acute care hospitals. Publicly owned and non-governmental hospitals may differ in their relationships with prefectural governments responsible for securing beds through vertical administrative structures. The analysis examines metropolitan versus non-metropolitan areas and hospitals with or without other acute care facilities within 10 km, comparing COVID-19 inpatients per 100 beds and reserved bed occupancy rates between ownership types. Results reveal that bed allocation ratios for COVID-19 patients vary between ownership types. Significant differences in inpatients per 100 beds appear in regions with nearby acute care hospitals and in non-metropolitan areas. Reserved bed occupancy rate differences between ownership types emerge in regions with proximate hospitals but not in single-hospital regions. Metropolitan areas frequently show no significant occupancy differences, indicating admissions matched reserved capacity. Findings demonstrate the necessity of strategic bed planning, particularly highlighting that non-governmental hospitals without nearby facilities face difficulties securing beds through administrative relationships. Enhanced monitoring during outbreaks is essential for such isolated hospitals. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25101 |
| By: | Waheed, Muhammad Shahid; Taj, Naveera |
| Abstract: | Ethnicity Matters: Correcting Cultural Bias in Social ModelsThis study examines the determinants of domestic violence (DV—physical or sexual) against women in Pakistan using nationally representative data from the 2017–18 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS). We estimate survey-adjusted logistic regression models, reporting logit coefficients, odds ratios, and marginal effects, to assess the influence of intergenerational, marital, demographic, and socioeconomic factors, and test whether excluding ethnicity biases results. Findings show that intergenerational transmission is a powerful driver: women whose fathers beat their mothers face more than double the odds of experiencing DV (OR = 2.39, marginal effect +12 pp, p |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Domestic violence, Pakistan, ethnicity, women empowerment, socio-economic determinants, patriarchal norms JEL Codes: J12, J16, I14, Z13 |
| JEL: | I14 J12 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126591 |
| By: | Debasis Mishra; Soumendu Sarkar; Arunava Sen; Jay Sethuraman; Sonal Yadav |
| Abstract: | The Right to Free and Compulsory Education Act (2009) (RTE) of the Government of India prescribes student-teacher ratios for state-run schools. One method advocated by the Act to achieve its goals is the redeployment of teachers from surplus to deficit (in teacher strength) schools. We consider a model where teachers can either remain in their initially assigned schools or be transferred to a deficit school in their acceptable set. The planner's objective is specified in terms of the post-transfer deficit vector that can be achieved. We show that there exists a transfer whose post-transfer deficit vector Lorenz dominates all achievable post-transfer deficit vectors. We provide a two-stage algorithm to derive the Lorenz-dominant post-transfer deficit vector, and show that this algorithm is strategy-proof for teachers. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.18708 |
| By: | ABE, Naohito; RAO, DS Prasada |
| Abstract: | Time-dummy hedonic models are widely applied in the construction of qualityadjusted price indexes for goods and services whose characteristics evolve over time. The specification of these models, particularly the transformation applied to the price variable, plays a decisive role in determining measured price change. This paper evaluates transformation choice within the framework of the proportionality axiom in index-number theory, which requires that if all prices in the comparison period are scaled by a positive constant, the index must be scaled by the same constant. It is demonstrated that, for time-dummy hedonic regressions with observed characteristics, the logarithmic transformation of prices—combined with the conventional exponential mapping of time effects-is the only specification that satisfies proportionality for all admissible datasets. Alternative transformations, including the Box-Cox family, do not generally meet this requirement when characteristics are present, except under highly restrictive, data-specific conditions. This paper provides clear implications for statistical agencies and applied researchers. The theoretical results are illustrated using both simulated datasets and scanner data from Japan, reinforcing the need for aligning hedonic price index construction with axiomatic principles. |
| JEL: | C43 E31 E01 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp25-3 |
| By: | Waheed, Muhammad Shahid |
| Abstract: | The present study seeks to find out how gender, age, area of living, parent background in terms of educational level and occupation determine the probability of youth to be out of the labour market in different districts of Pakistan. We utilize data from the labour force survey 2021. The study investigates the relationship between the inactivity rate and the probability of being employed, revealing a significant negative association between them. The study calculates for each district a revised version of the Human Opportunity Index developed by the World Bank. Third, we compute the contribution of each factor to that index. The results show that dissimilarity has a marked influence in most of the districts, the highest dissimilarity is in district Panjgur, Lasbela, Sherani, Kachhi, Kharan, South Waziristan, and Buner, while the major challenges with getting the youth onto the labour market are still in Balochistan and KP districts even after taking dissimilarity of unchangeable background into account. |
| Keywords: | youth; Inactivity; inequality of opportunity; employment; dissimilarity |
| JEL: | J70 |
| Date: | 2023–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126308 |
| By: | Rajesh ADJ Jeyaprakash; Senthil Arasu Balasubramanian; Vijay Maddikera |
| Abstract: | Investment style groups investment approaches to predict portfolio return variations. This study examines the relationship between investment style, style consistency, and risk-adjusted returns of Indian equity mutual funds. The methodology involves estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analysing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity. Funds transition across styles over time, reflecting rotation, drift, or strengthening trends. Many Mid Blend funds remain in the same category, while others shift to Large Blend or Mid Value, indicating value-oriented strategies or large-cap exposure. Some funds adopt high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend, aiming for alpha through small-cap equities. Performance changes following risk structure shifts are analyzed by comparing pre- and post-shift metrics, showing that style adjustments can enhance returns based on market conditions. This study contributes to mutual fund evaluation literature by highlighting the impact of style transitions on returns. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.19619 |
| By: | WATANABE, Toshiaki |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes business cycles in Japan by applying Markov switching (MS) models to monthly data on the coincident indicator of composite index (CI) during the period of 1985/01-2025/05 calculated by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office, the Government of Japan. During the latter half of the sample period, the Japanese economy experienced major shocks such as the global financial crisis in 2008, the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. CI fell sharply during these periods, which make it difficult to estimate business cycle turning points using the simple MS model. In this paper, the MS model is extended by incorporating Student's t-error and stochastic volatility (SV). Since it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood once SV is introduced, a Bayesian method via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is employed. The MS model with t-error or SV is shown to provide the estimates of the business cycle turning points close to those published by ESRI. A new method for evaluating marginal likelihood is evaluated. Bayesian model comparison based on marginal likelihood provides evidence that t-error is not needed once SV is introduced. Using the MS model with normal error and SV, structural changes in CI's mean growth rates during booms and recessions are also analyezed and two break points are found in the both mean growth rates. One is 2008/10 and the other is 2010/02, during which the mean growth rate during recession falls and that during boom rises due to the global financial crisis. |
| JEL: | C11 C22 C51 C52 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-148 |
| By: | ARAWATARI, Ryo; TAKAHASHI, Yuta; TAKAYAMA, Naoki |
| Abstract: | After the boom-bust cycle, Japan experienced a marked slowdown in economic growth since 1990. Three features stand out: (1) a persistent decline in total factor productivity growth, (2) a sharp and lasting fall in private investment, and (3) an extended period of exceptionally low interest rates. This study develops a macro-finance model designed to account for these interconnected phenomena. The framework emphasizes the role of shifting expectations, risk-premium, and the interaction between financial conditions and real activity. By grounding the analysis in the Japanese experience, the model aims to explain not only the mechanisms behind the bubble’s rise and fall but also the persistence of the stagnation that followed. The broader goal is to clarify how financial booms and busts can leave long-lived imprints on growth trajectories, offering lessons for economies facing similar vulnerabilities today. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:773 |
| By: | Mr. Paul Cashin; Mr. Fei Han; Ivy Sabuga; Jing Xie; Fan Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates three approaches to address parameter proliferation issue in nowcasting: (i) variable selection using adjusted stepwise autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (AS-ARIMAX); (ii) regularization in machine learning (ML); and (iii) dimensionality reduction via principal component analysis (PCA). Utilizing 166 variables, we estimate our models from 2007Q2 to 2019Q4 using rolling-window regression, while applying these three approaches. We then conduct a pseudo out-of-sample performance comparison of various nowcasting models—including Bridge, MIDAS, U-MIDAS, dynamic factor model (DFM), and machine learning techniques including Ridge Regression, LASSO, and Elastic Net to predict China's annualized real GDP growth rate from 2020Q1 to 2023Q1. Our findings suggest that the LASSO method outperform all other models, but only when guided by economic judgment and sign restrictions in variable selection. Notably, simpler models like Bridge with AS-ARIMAX variable selection yield reliable estimates nearly comparable to those from LASSO, underscoring the importance of effective variable selection in capturing strong signals. |
| Keywords: | China; GDP; Nowcasting |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/217 |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid |
| Abstract: | A farmer in Haryana, a state neighboring the capital city of New Delhi, India, burns agricultural crop residue which leads to an increase in air pollution and gives rise to extra costs for a small business owning representative citizen in New Delhi. We theoretically analyze this farmer/citizen interaction. We first determine the optimal amount of crop produced when the farmer disregards the negative externality he imposes on the representative New Delhi citizen. Second, we study the equilibrium that emerges when the farmer must pay a fine to compensate the New Delhi citizen for the negative externality he causes. Finally, we compare the outcomes in the preceding two cases and then explain the differences that arise. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Crop Residue, Air Pollution, Burning, External Diseconomy |
| JEL: | Q15 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125945 |
| By: | Max Stick; Feng Hou; Haozhen Zhang |
| Abstract: | An increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing have prompted questions about their housing experiences. This article examines the prevalence of living in unsuitable housing for international students enumerated in the 2021 Census of Population long-form questionnaire and provides comparisons with Canadian-born students across municipalities. The results indicated that international students were more likely to live in unsuitable housing than Canadian-born students. However, there was a large variation across municipalities in the proportion of international students living in unsuitable housing. In the top 10 municipalities with the highest number of international students, the rates of living in unsuitable housing ranged from 25% to 63% for international students, about 13 to 45 percentage points higher than that for Canadian-born students aged 18 to 24. Furthermore, there were large disparities in unsuitable housing rates across international student groups from different source countries. Students from India were more likely to live in unsuitable housing compared with those from other countries. In Brampton and Surrey, the municipalities with the largest shares of Indian students, the proportions of international students in unsuitable housing were the highest. The difference in the source-country composition of international students accounted for most of the variation across municipalities in international students’ housing suitability. Canada welcomes a large number of international studentsNote each year from various countries, and the number of arrivals has increased over the past two decades (Choi, Crossman & Hou, 2021; Crossman et al., 2022). The increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing have prompted questions about their housing experiences (Pottie-Sherman et al., 2023). International students have reported difficulties finding affordable and suitable housing because of cultural differences, language barriers, lack of familiarity with the Canadian housing system and regulations, and other obstacles (El Masri & Khan, 2022). As international students may have unique housing experiences, it is important to understand how this population fares in terms of housing conditions (Pottie-Sherman et al., 2023). There may also be geographic differences in the housing conditions of international students across municipalities because of variations in regional housing markets (see Statistics Canada, 2022). Furthermore, international students from different source countries may vary in their financial resources and cultural norms regarding living arrangements. Using data from the 2021 Census of Population, this article examines the prevalence of living in unsuitable housingNote for international students enumerated in the long-form census questionnaireNote and provides comparisons with Canadian-born studentsNote across municipalities (or census subdivisions [CSDs]).Note Since the long-form census questionnaire did not collect information for people living in collective dwellings, including school residences, this article covers only international students living in private households. Data are shown separately for the top 10 CSDs with the highest number of international students and the 5 CSDs with the highest proportion of international students by their share of the total population of Canadians.Note This article further examines the variation in housing suitability of international students by their source country and whether such variation is associated with differences in international students’ housing suitability across municipalities. |
| Keywords: | housing, international students, international students, affordable housing |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400500001e |
| By: | Gong, Di; Ongena, Steven; Qi, Shusen; Yu, Yanxin |
| Abstract: | Banks are multidivisional organizations in which branches hold local knowledge about borrowers. Can this "soft" information be transmitted across units? Studying the population of corporate loans originated by a large commercial bank in China from 2010 to 2020, we find that when firms switch branches within bank, the switching loans carry a significantly lower spread than comparable nonswitching loans. After switching, the new branch further reduces the loan spreads initially, but ratchets it up afterwards, surprising evidence of intra-bank hold-up. By documenting how internal communication failures distort lending, we link relationship banking with delegation, coordination, and information transmission within organizations. |
| Keywords: | organization structure, bank lending, hold-up, firm-bank relationship |
| JEL: | G21 G32 L14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:330334 |
| By: | Chujun He; Zhonghao Huang; Xiangguo Li; Ye Luo; Kewei Ma; Yuxuan Xiong; Xiaowei Zhang; Mingyang Zhao |
| Abstract: | We present a multi-agent, AI-driven framework for fundamental investing that integrates macro indicators, industry-level and firm-specific information to construct optimized equity portfolios. The architecture comprises: (i) a Macro agent that dynamically screens and weights sectors based on evolving economic indicators and industry performance; (ii) four firm-level agents -- Fundamental, Technical, Report, and News -- that conduct in-depth analyses of individual firms to ensure both breadth and depth of coverage; (iii) a Portfolio agent that uses reinforcement learning to combine the agent outputs into a unified policy to generate the trading strategy; and (iv) a Risk Control agent that adjusts portfolio positions in response to market volatility. We evaluate the system on the constituents by the CSI 300 Index of China's A-share market and find that it consistently outperforms standard benchmarks and a state-of-the-art multi-agent trading system on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control. Our core contribution is a hierarchical multi-agent design that links top-down macro screening with bottom-up fundamental analysis, offering a robust and extensible approach to factor-based portfolio construction. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.21147 |
| By: | Yuntao Wu; Lynn Tao; Ing-Haw Cheng; Charles Martineau; Yoshio Nozawa; John Hull; Andreas Veneris |
| Abstract: | News spreads rapidly across languages and regions, but translations may lose subtle nuances. We propose a method to align sentences in multilingual news articles using optimal transport, identifying semantically similar content across languages. We apply this method to align more than 140, 000 pairs of Bloomberg English and Japanese news articles covering around 3500 stocks in Tokyo exchange over 2012-2024. Aligned sentences are sparser, more interpretable, and exhibit higher semantic similarity. Return scores constructed from aligned sentences show stronger correlations with realized stock returns, and long-short trading strategies based on these alignments achieve 10\% higher Sharpe ratios than analyzing the full text sample. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.19203 |