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on South East Asia |
| By: | Abhishek Seth (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee); Manish Kumar Singh (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, xKDR Forum); Diya Uday (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Property tax is the most important source of own revenue for Indian cities, yet it has failed to keep pace with rapid urban economic growth. In this paper, we address this gap in two steps: first, we measure whether property taxes in India are buoyant, that is, whether they rise proportionately with income; and second, we examine whether buoyancy differs systematically across valuation systems - Annual Rental Value (ARV), Unit Area Value (UAV), and Capital Value (CV). Using a balanced panel of 2, 470 Urban Local Bodies in 23 states (2018-19 to 2022-23) from the City-Finance portal, we estimate buoyancy via fixed-effects regressions linking property tax demand to nominal GSDP. Our findings suggest modest overall buoyancy (0.96), with ARV outperforming CV and UAV. Robustness checks confirm the pattern, highlighting that valuation implementation quality, not statutory form, drives revenue responsiveness in rapidly urbanizing economies. |
| JEL: | H2 H71 H72 C23 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:42 |
| By: | Jesus Felipe; Manuel L. Albis |
| Abstract: | We expand the standard balance-of-payments–constrained (BOPC) growth rate model in three directions. First, we take into account the separate contributions of exports in goods, exports in services, overseas remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Second, we use state-space estimation techniques to obtain time-varying parameters of the relevant coefficients. Third, we test for the endogeneity of output in the import equation. We apply this framework to assess the feasibility of the target set by the new Philippine administration of President Marcos (elected in 2022) to attain an annual GDP growth rate of 6.5-8 percent during 2024-28. We obtain an estimate of the growth rate consistent with equilibrium in the basic balance of the Philippines of about 6.5 percent in 2021 (and declining during the years prior to it). This BOPC growth rate is below the 6.5-8 percent target. We also find that exchange-rate depreciations will not lead to an improvement in the BOPC growth rate. The Philippines must lift the constraints that impede a higher growth of exports. In particular, it must shift its export structure toward more sophisticated products with a higher income elasticity of demand. |
| Keywords: | Balance-of-Payments-constrained growth rate; Philippines; Kalman filter |
| JEL: | E24 E32 O14 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1039 |
| By: | Strachman, Eduardo |
| Abstract: | What makes a country grow and develop while another languishes in stagnation or regression? What kinds of decisions are made that lead to this divergence? This article seeks to illustrate this question through two examples of very close nations: China and Japan. It aims to compare the largely successful example of Japan with the failure of the former Chinese empire to withstand Western pressures, which became stronger following the attainment of industrial and military supremacy after the British Industrial Revolution and its imitation and subsequent surpassing by other European countries and the USA. This failure would only be reversed in the Chinese case in the 20th century, starting with the Revolution of 1949 and, more decisively, after the economic reforms initiated in 1978. The contrast between China’s ineffective response to the Western challenge and Japan’s effective and incredibly rapid response will be explained in the article, along with some of the reasons for these different reactions. It will be demonstrated how Japan undertook something entirely different by changing the Emperor and initiating the so-called Meiji Revolution, in place of the Tokugawa Era (1603-1867). This also resulted in Japan’s modern industrialization occurring nearly a century earlier than that of its Asian neighbors, including China. |
| Keywords: | Japan; China; Development; Economic Growth; Catch-Up |
| JEL: | L60 N15 O14 O21 O25 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126428 |
| By: | Visca Tri Winarty; Sena Safarina |
| Abstract: | Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of investors in the Indonesia Stock Exchange has steadily increased, emphasizing the importance of portfolio optimization in balancing risk and return. The classical mean-variance optimization model, while widely applied, depends on historical return and risk estimates that are uncertain and may result in suboptimal portfolios. To address this limitation, robust optimization incorporates uncertainty sets to improve portfolio reliability under market fluctuations. This study constructs such sets using moving-window and bootstrapping methods and applies them to Indonesian banking stock data with varying risk-aversion parameters. The results show that robust optimization with the moving-window method, particularly with a smaller risk-aversion parameter, provides a better risk-return trade-off compared to the bootstrapping approach. These findings highlight the potential of the moving-window method to generate more effective portfolio strategies for risk-tolerant investors. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15288 |
| By: | Eudearly Angela Jansye ("LSPR Communication & Business Institute, Sudirman Park Campus, 10220, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia " Author-2-Name: Andre Ikhsano Author-2-Workplace-Name: "LSPR Communication & Business Institute, Sudirman Park Campus, 10220, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study explores how digital community marketing (DCM) enhances financial decision-making among Indonesian millennials within the Sobat Sandwich community, a peer-based platform for individuals juggling dual family responsibilities. Methodology/Technique - Using a structured survey of 116 members aged 25–40, this study applied PLS-SEM to examine DCM components (engagement, value sharing, storytelling) and theory of planned behavior (TPB) constructs (attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control). Findings - Engagement and value sharing significantly strengthen DCM, while storytelling, attitude, and perceived behavioral control do not show a significant effect. DCM positively influences financial decision-making, mainly through collective norms, with subjective norms playing a key role in a collectivist context. Novelty - This study contributes to marketing and behavioral finance by shifting from traditional one-way financial education to a community-driven model tailored to Indonesia's sandwich generation. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Digital Community Marketing (DCM); Financial Decision-Making; Engagement; Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB); Millennials; Sandwich Generation |
| JEL: | M31 Z13 D14 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr350 |
| By: | Andre Groeger; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how social networks (might fail to) shape agricultural practices. We exploit (i) a unique census of agricultural production nested within delineated land parcels and (ii) social network data within four repopulated villages of rural Vietnam. In a first step, we extract exogenous variation in network formation from home locations within the few streets that compose each village (populated through staggered population resettlement), and we estimate the return to social links in the adoption of highly-productive crops. We find a large network multiplier, in apparent contradiction with low adoption rates. In a second step, we study the structure of network formation to explain this puzzle: social networks display large homophily, and valuable links between heterogeneous households are rare. Due to the clustered nature of networks and the dynamic, endogenous propagation of agricultural practices, there are decreasing returns to social links, and policies targeting “inbetweeners†are most able to mitigate this issue. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/794 |
| By: | James Giesecke (Victoria University); Robert Waschik (Victoria University); Milan Thomas (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine the potential economic impacts of the new United States (US) tariff on Cambodia using a dynamic global general equilibrium model (GTAP-FIN). We simulate the impact of US tariff increases announced in August 2025 while also examining two additional hypothetical cases for Cambodia. Hence, we investigate three scenarios: (i) the headline “reciprocal” tariff rate (19%) as announced on 31 July 2025; (ii) a hypothetical case, in which Cambodian products are only subject to the base tariff rate (10%); and (iii) a hypothetical case, in which Cambodian products are subject to a 36% tariff (the threatened rate leading up to 31 July 2025). US real output falls, driven by short run job losses, long run capital stock contractions, and losses in allocative efficiency. The impacts on Cambodia’s economy are close to zero at the 19% tariff level, positive at the 10% rate and negative at the 36% rate. Globally, regions most exposed to US tariffs see the largest impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption. The analysis does not capture the potential adverse effects of heightened global trade policy uncertainty, suggesting that economic impacts on Cambodia may exceed those estimated in this report. |
| Keywords: | Cambodia, computable general equilibrium, tariffs, trade, United States |
| JEL: | C68 E17 F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021677 |
| By: | Hong, Sehyun; Kim, Nak Nyeon; Mo, Zhexun; Yang, Li |
| Abstract: | We combine household survey micro data, tax data, and national accounts to construct annual pretax income inequality series for South Korea, which is coherent with macro aggregates. We provide the distribution of pretax national income over the time period from 1933 to 2022, with detailed breakdown by income composition in the years from 1996 to 2022. Our new series demonstrates that Korean top income shares decreased substantially from the 1930s up until the mid-1960s, following various wars, independence and land reform policies. Income inequalities then stabilized against the backdrop of rapid economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s, and decreased even further from the late 1980s onwards until the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, which contradicts the “Kuznets Curve.” In the aftermath of the crisis, income inequality worsened due to the rise of tax-exempted capital income concentration at the top. Compared to other East Asian countries, South Korea exhibits relatively lower levels of income inequality in terms of higher bottom 50% income shares, mostly due to a more equal distribution of national income growth at the stages of economic take-off in the 1980s, even though income concentration at the very top has strikingly worsened over the last two decades, with its top 1% income shares in 2022 returning back to the peak only observed during the colonial era. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ym4k3_v1 |
| By: | Tiantian Yang (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Richard S.J. Tol (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | To address the dual environmental challenges of pollution and climate change, China has established multiple environmental markets, including pollution emissions trading, carbon emissions trading, energy-use rights trading, and green electricity trading. Previousempirical studies suffer from known biases arising from time-varying treatment and multipletreatments. To address these limitations, this study adopts a dynamic control group designand combines Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo) empiricalstrategies. Using panel data on A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2024, this studyinvestigates the marginal effects and interactive impacts of multiple environmental marketsimplemented in staggered and overlapping phases. Existing pollution emissions tradingmitigates the negative effects of carbon emission trading. Carbon trading suppresses(improves) financial performance (if implemented alongside energy-use rights trading). Theaddition of energy-use rights or green electricity trading in regions already covered bycarbon or pollution markets has no significant effects. |
| Keywords: | Multiple environmental markets; Policy interactions; Marginal abatement cost;Contamination bias; Artificial Counterfactual; Difference-in-Difference |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0625 |
| By: | Boughabi, Houssam |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a stochastic Keynesian model linking inflation, unemployment, and GDP. Inflation follows a fractional Brownian motion, capturing persistent shocks, while a temporal convolutional network forecasts conditional paths, allowing machine learning to account for nonlinear interactions and long-memory effects. Unemployment responds conditionally to inflation thresholds, permitting involuntary joblessness, while GDP depends on both variables, reflecting aggregate demand and labor market frictions. The model is applied to Pakistan, simulating macroeconomic dynamics under alternative policy scenarios. We demonstrate that sustained growth is possible even under persistent inflation, reinforcing the empirical relevance of Keynesian theory in contemporary macroeconomic analysis and highlighting the value of machine learning for policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Stagflation, Fractional Brownian Motion, Temporal Convolutional Networks, Keynesian Policy, Pakistan |
| JEL: | C22 C45 E24 E31 E37 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126294 |
| By: | Chaudhary, Latika (Naval Postgraduate School); Dupraz, Yannick (Paris Dauphine University, PSL University, LEDA, CNRS, IRD); Fenske, James (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Combining detailed data on language and migration across colonial Indian districts in 1901 with a gravity model, we find origin and destination districts separated by more dissimilar languages saw less migration. We control for the physical distance between origin-destination pairs, several measures of dissimilarity in geographic characteristics, as well as origin and destination fixed effects. The results are robust to a regression discontinuity design that exploits spatial boundaries across language groups. We also find linguistic differences predict lower migration in 2001. Cultural channels are a small part of the link from linguistic diversity to lower migration. Rather, the evidence suggests communication and information channels are more important. |
| Keywords: | Migration ; Linguistic Diversity ; India JEL Codes: N35 ; O15 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1580 |
| By: | Tomohiko INUI; YoungGak KIM |
| Abstract: | This study examines the stagnation of total factor productivity (TFP) in the Korean economy through the lens of the “Productivity J-curve†hypothesis. Despite Korea’s world-leading R&D intensity and active investment in ICT and software, TFP growth has slowed since the 2000s. Using firm-level data of Korean listed companies, the micro-level analysis reveals that R&D and software investments are consistently associated with unobserved and complementary intangible assets. At the macro level, the revised TFP growth rate—adjusted for such intangible investments—exceeds the conventional measure by about one percentage point per year after 2008, demonstrating a typical J-curve effect. These findings suggest that measurement challenges and time lags in intangible investment contribute to Korea’s productivity puzzle, highlighting the need for improved intangible asset statistics and policies that foster complementary investments in human, organizational, and digital capital. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25028 |
| By: | Masanori Matsuura-Kannari (Institute of Developing Economies-Japan External Trade Organization); Shu Tian (Asian Development Bank); Abu Hayat Md. Saiful Islam (Bangladesh Agricultural University); Salauddin Tauseef (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | A persistent disparity has been observed in the social and economic development of women, particularly evident in South Asia's lower female labor force participation. This study investigates how mobile phone ownership can overcome this disadvantage. Using an instrumental variable approach and comprehensive household panel dataset from rural Bangladesh, we show that women’s mobile phone ownership is significantly associated with an increase in their off-farm income, attributable to an enhancement in the likelihood of offfarm employment. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the adoption of mobile phones has the potential benefits being distributed equitably across various levels of education, wealth, and remoteness. The findings, as corroborated by a series of robustness checks, underscore the importance of digitalization in promoting inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | mobile phones;off-farm income;off-farm employment;female employment;rural;Bangladesh |
| JEL: | J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021685 |
| By: | Zagdbazar, Manlaibaatar |
| Abstract: | Mongolia's Gini coefficient decreased by 26% over the past 15 years (2007-2022). This period, marked by a mining boom and bust cycle and great economic transformation. This study finds that the reduction in inequality is attributed to shifts in household income composition, including rising shares of wage income and government transfers, and declining shares of self-employment and own-consumption income. The expansion of the formal labor market, particularly in mining, trade, and finance, alongside social welfare programs like child benefits and pensions, has been pivotal. Interestingly, income from own consumption of housing, which has not been extensively considered in the literature, contributed most to the decrease in inequality due to its substantial reduction in both share and concentration. However, herder households remain vulnerable to shocks, and gender/regional disparities persist. This study, analyzing monetary and non-monetary well-being, offers insights into mining-dependent and transition economies seeking inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Developing economies, household income composition, income inequality, income sources dynamic decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 D33 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125662 |
| By: | Shu Cai (Jinan University); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank); Sangui Wang (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impacts of a government-led microcredit program in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) which was implemented at scale in poor rural areas, using a randomized controlled trial (RCT). In contrast to recent RCT-based studies that found no evidence of significant increases in income from microcredit interventions, we find that the Chinese program significantly raises household income and reduces poverty. We explore possible explanations for why the estimated impacts may be greater in the PRC, including larger loan size, lump sum repayments, lower interest rates, less access to formal credit before the program, and greater returns from credit constrained off-farm employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | microfinance;program evaluations;randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | D12 D22 G21 I32 O16 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021688 |
| By: | Takuya Hasebe (Sophia Institute for Human Security and Faculty of Liberal Arts, Sophia University, JAPAN); Yuma Noritomo (Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, U.S.A. and Junior Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Bilesha Weeraratne (Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, SRI LANKA) |
| Abstract: | International migration offers significant economic opportunities for developing countries, but it can also separate parents from their children, potentially harming child development. This paper examines the effects of restricting mothers' international migration on left-behind children, leveraging a Sri Lankan unique policy that restricted mothers with children under age five from migrating abroad for employment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the results reveal the following: First, the policy reduces international migration, increasing mothers' presence at home. Second, policy exposure leads to better healthcare outcomes, including a significant reduction in inpatient stays, particularly treatment for illnesses. This improvement appears to result from increased childcare and monitoring by mothers. Although the policy decreases remittances from abroad, this reduction is offset by an increase in domestic remittances. Furthermore, we find evidence of positive spillovers on non-targeted children with younger, policy-targeted siblings, as indicated by reduced grade retention. These findings highlight the trade-offs between a mother's presence and the economic opportunities associated with international migration in shaping human capital development. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; Health; Education; Remittance; Sri Lanka |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-25 |
| By: | Liu, Renliang (Liaoning University); Xie, Jian (Southern University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Why do some regions fail to adopt the best available technologies? This paper examines how anti-foreign sentiment, proxied by the incidence of anti-missionary violence, and industrial capacity jointly shaped the gains from China's 1983 Quid Pro Quo policy (QPQ, trading market access for technology). Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that the QPQ policy substantially increased foreign technology adoption in cities with more developed early industrial capacity. A subsequent triple-differences specification shows that anti-missionary violence erased around three-quarters of these gains, with the most pronounced effects on critical equipment, licensing agreements, and in cities where officials led the conflicts. Disaggregated analysis with stringent fixed effects demonstrates that hostility toward specific source countries sharply cut technology in-flows from those countries. Mechanism analysis suggests that anti-missionary violence contributed to this erosion by deteriorating bilateral municipal ties and deterring the entry of foreign-invested firms. Firm-level matching indicates a 15.8% productivity premium for technology adopters, and a back-of-the-envelope calculation translates this into an average city-level productivity shortfall of 0.128% over 1983–1995 due to anti-foreign sentiment. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Technology Adoption, Quid Pro Quo Policy, Anti-Foreign Sentiment, Industrial Capacity JEL Classification: F63, N45, N75, O14, O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:777 |
| By: | Jameaba, Muyanja Ssenyonga |
| Abstract: | Today’s financial institutions have to adapt to changing business environment, increasingly demanding and differentiated customer preferences, and digitalization and technological changes. Using a documentary analysis approach, the article navigates the implications of the adoption of distributed ledger technology (BCT) on functions and performance of the general banking sector and financial system stability. Results underscore the role of DLT adoption in fundamentally changing the financial service development and delivery landscape, operations, providers, regulatory regime, and performance. DLT adoption is envisaged to trigger the entry of new non-bank providers, facilitate the development of collaborative financial innovations and operations, adoption of new business models that support open banking principles, maintain the leveraging of Big Data and data analytics. Consequently, banks have a diversified customer base, strengthened capacity and capabilities to leverage customer experience , fostering the development and deployment of financial innovations that bolster competitiveness. Moreover, DLT adoption has the potential to enhance the integrity and authenticity of financial service delivery, reduce vulnerability to cyber insecurity and financial fraud, foster decentralized authentication of financial transactions, increase operational efficiency, lower compliance cost, shorten onboarding of new product offers and customers, accelerate new product development and deployment. Moreover, DLT adoption enables traditional banks to protect their interest and non-interest income sources from new and nimbler players, bolsters banks’ financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission functions, widens banks’ ability to provide wealth custodianship services, fosters the provision of financial payments services to wider, diversified and transboundary clientele, and strengthen bank’s role in maintaining financial system stability |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, CBDC, crypto assets, digitalization, Fintechs, emerging technologies, open banking, P2P lending |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126280 |
| By: | Neha Bairoliya; Areendam Chanda; Jingyi Fang; Fang Yang |
| Abstract: | The canonical prediction of life-cycle models, that individuals smooth consumption over their lifetime, has been mostly tested for developed countries and found little empirical support. We provide a novel, developing country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India. In contrast to the U.S., Indian households exhibit no growth in nondurable consumption expenditures after adjusting for family size. We present evidence that saving for lumpy investments in consumer durables is a key driver of high savings rates and flat nondurable consumption over the life cycle in India. |
| Keywords: | consumption; savings rate; demographics; life-cycle; durables; asset accumulation; household heterogeneity; panel data; pseudopanel; equivalence scales |
| JEL: | E21 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101973 |
| By: | Ruixue Jia; Gaurav Khanna; Hongbin Li; Yuli Xu |
| Abstract: | China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by examining its impact on US graduate education and local economies surrounding college towns. Combining administrative data from China’s college admissions system and US visa data, we leverage the centralized quota system governing Chinese college admissions for identification and present three key findings. First, the expansion of Chinese undergraduate education drove graduate student flows to the US: every additional 100 college graduates in China led to 3.6 Chinese graduate students in the US. Second, Chinese master’s students generated positive spillovers, driving the birth of new master’s programs, and increasing the number of other international and American master’s students, particularly in STEM fields. And third, the influx of international students supported local economies around college towns, raising job creation rates outside the universities, as well. Our findings highlight how domestic education policy in one country can reshape the academic and economic landscape of another through student migration and its broader spillovers. |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J23 J24 J61 O15 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34391 |
| By: | Godehardt, Nadine; Mayer, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Das diesjährige Gipfeltreffen der Shanghaier Organisation für Zusammenarbeit (SOZ) in Tianjin war das bisher größte in ihrer Geschichte. Mehr als 20 Staatschefs und zehn Vertreter internationaler Organisationen nahmen an dem Gipfel teil. Während dieser SOZ+ hielt Chinas Staats- und Parteichef Xi Jinping eine Rede, in der er prominent die Global Governance Initiative (GGI) des Landes ankündigte. Entwicklung, Sicherheit, Zivilisation und Governance bilden für Peking die vier Säulen für den Aufbau einer "Gemeinschaft mit einer gemeinsamen Zukunft der Menschheit" oder, konkreter, einer neuen Weltordnung. Daher ist es dringend geboten, dass Deutschland und Europa China in dieser Phase anhaltenden Umbruchs als globalstrategische Herausforderung begreifen. |
| Keywords: | China, Peking, neue Weltordnung, Xi Jinping, KPCh, Shanghaier Organisation für Zusammenarbeit, SOZ, SCO, Global Governance Initiative, GGI, SOZ-Gipfel 2025, "Vier Muss", Sige Yinggai |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:329915 |
| By: | Yuhan Cheng; Heyang Zhou; Yanchu Liu |
| Abstract: | We leverage the capacity of large language models such as Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) in constructing factor models for Chinese futures markets. We successfully obtain 40 factors to design single-factor and multi-factor portfolios through long-short and long-only strategies, conducting backtests during the in-sample and out-of-sample period. Comprehensive empirical analysis reveals that GPT-generated factors deliver remarkable Sharpe ratios and annualized returns while maintaining acceptable maximum drawdowns. Notably, the GPT-based factor models also achieve significant alphas over the IPCA benchmark. Moreover, these factors demonstrate significant performance across extensive robustness tests, particularly excelling after the cutoff date of GPT's training data. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.23609 |
| By: | Younas, Aaqib; Ahmed, Jawad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of mobile wallets and digital transaction platforms has transformed financial systems worldwide, reshaping the way consumers interact with money and manage spending. In Pakistan, services such as Easypaisa, JazzCash, and Raast have accelerated financial inclusion and improved efficiency, yet their behavioural consequences remain underexplored. This study aims to examine how the adoption of digital transaction platforms influences consumer spending behaviour, with a particular focus on psychological factors such as impulsivity, budgeting discipline, and mental accounting. To test the determinants of adoption and spending outcomes, was performed using multiple regression and the generalised method of moments was used. The findings reveal that income, education, digital literacy, mobile penetration, and financial inclusion positively influence digital payment adoption, whereas age and cultural orientation act as constraints. Behavioural analysis further indicates that frequent users of digital platforms experience a reduced “pain of paying, ” which encourages impulsive purchases, weaker adherence to budgeting, and diminished financial control, particularly among younger consumers. These results highlight the dual nature of digital finance: while it enhances inclusion and economic activity, it also increases risks of overspending and financial vulnerability. The study recommends integrating financial literacy into education systems, encouraging fintech providers to embed budgeting and savings tools, and strengthening regulatory oversight to ensure that the benefits of digital transaction platforms are maximised while their behavioural risks are mitigated. |
| Keywords: | Digital Finance, Consumer Behaviour, Mobile Wallets, Financial Inclusion |
| JEL: | G2 O3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126075 |
| By: | Lekha S. Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | Gender budgeting is a public financial management (PFM) tool, used to ensure accountability mechanisms. The analysis of "process" indicators of gender-responsive PFM (GRPFM) reveals that India has been successful in integrating a gender lens within the budget cycle, including in the financial planning and allocation, and in effective implementation. However, a legally mandated GRPFM would be crucial for the sustained impact of gender budgeting on gender equality outcomes. The empirical analysis of the link between GRPFM and gender equality outcomes showed that flexibility of finances is crucial for a government to implement GRPFM. The unconditional fiscal transfers have relatively more impact on gender equality outcomes than conditional transfers. The plausible mechanism through which unconditional tax transfers impact gender equality outcomes lies in the flexibility of use of tax transfers by the subnational governments in prioritizing their gender-related commitments. This inference has policy implications for the 16th Finance Commission. |
| Keywords: | Public Financial Management; Gender Budgeting; Fiscal Innovation; Accountability |
| JEL: | H3 H5 H8 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1054 |
| By: | Lekha S. Chakraborty; Yadawendra Singh |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of demographic transition in India, the study highlights the necessity of integrating the elderly population as a critical factor in formula-based intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The demographic transition, characterized by an increasing elderly population, imposes unique fiscal challenges on states, necessitating a revision of transfer formulas to ensure equitable and efficient resource distribution. The paper employs a historical analysis of fiscal devolution criteria, and analyzes the impact of incorporating the elderly population into the devolution formula on the share of states in the total tax transfer to states. The findings indicate that integrating the elderly population into the tax devolution formula can significantly alter the distribution of resources among states, with states benefiting more while having a relatively larger elderly population. The study recommends considering demographic changes by incorporating the elderly to working age population ratio as a criterion used by the Sixteenth Finance Commission to promote a more equitable and efficient allocation of resources. |
| Keywords: | fiscal transfer; tax devolution; demographic transition; gender inequality |
| JEL: | H77 J11 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1056 |
| By: | Tanweer Akram; Shahida Pervin |
| Abstract: | This paper econometrically models the dynamics of long-term Chinese government bond (CGB) yields based on key macroeconomic and financial variables. It deploys autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models to examine whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term CGB yield, after controlling for various macroeconomic and financial variables, such as inflation or core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the stock price index, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, and the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The findings show that the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on the long-term CGB yield of various maturity tenors. John Maynard Keynes claimed that the central bank’s policy rate exerts an important influence over long-term government bond yields through the short-term interest rate. The paper's findings evince that Keynes's claim holds for China, implying that the PBOC's actions are a driver of the long-term CGB yield. This means that policymakers in China have considerable leeway in fiscal and monetary operations, government deficit finance, and central government debt management. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Government Bonds; Long-term Interest Rates; Short-term Interest Rates; People’s Bank of China; John Maynard Keynes |
| JEL: | E43 E50 E58 E60 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1044 |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Leena; Van Soest, Arthur |
| Abstract: | How married couples allocate their time across activities has been studied in developed countries, but remains an open question in many developing countries. We pool the 2019 and 2024 waves of the India Time Use Survey (TUS), the two most recent nationally representative surveys, to analyze the time spent on paid work, household production, child care, and several other activities. We focus on the role of spouses' relative education level - which has been seen as a measure of within-household bargaining power - as well as each partner's own education level and a measure of patriarchy in the state. We find that, compared to women with lower or the same education level, women with higher education than their husbands are more likely to participate in and spend more time on paid work, at the cost of time spent on household production, leisure, childcare, and sleep. Surprisingly, men with more educated wives also spend somewhat more time on paid work than other men. In addition, they more often engage in household production and childcare activities, which leads to reduced intrahousehold inequality in time spent on unpaid activities. Combined with the relations between time use and wives' and husbands' own education or patriarchy, our results suggest that the impact of relative education is more complex than its role for intrahousehold bargaining power would suggest. |
| Keywords: | relative education, time allocation, gender, bargaining power |
| JEL: | J22 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1680 |
| By: | TIWARI, SIDDHARTHA PAUL; Fahrudin, Adi |
| Abstract: | A remarkable amount of progress has been made in the field of GenAI over the last year, resulting in it becoming an increasingly sought-after technology among mobile and e-commerce developers as well as end users. Mobile and e-commerce developers in Indonesia have incorporated GenAI features into their applications as a result of this surge in interest and technological advancement, improving the efficiency and usability of their applications. It is the purpose of this book to provide an overview of the current state of GenAI integration by Indonesian mobile and e-commerce application developers. Using insights gathered from a survey and focus group discussions, we explore the key trends, strategies, use cases and challenges associated with the use of GenAI within the mobile and e-commerce industry. It has been demonstrated that GenAI is having a transformative impact on application development, offering both opportunities and challenges to developers. The focus group discussions provided valuable insight into the current practices and future directions of GenAI integration, reflecting a dynamic and evolving market. With continued focus on developer trends and technological advancements, the authors consider this paper to be a pivotal reference for understanding how Indonesian mobile and e-commerce use GenAI to redefine functionality and user experience in their applications. |
| Keywords: | Indonesian Digital Economy, Integration of Indonesian E-Commerce and MCommerce, Organizational Transformation in Indonesia, Adoption of Mobile-Based Artificial Intelligence in Indonesia, Consumer Behavior Analysis in Indonesia, Socioeconomic Impact of AI Integration |
| JEL: | O3 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–12–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125901 |
| By: | He, Meng-Yun |
| Abstract: | This article examines the triple migration of young female live streamers performing street entertainment in Shenzhen, China. These second-generation rural-to-urban migrants navigate three intersecting trajectories: spatial mobility to urban centres, digital migration onto live-streaming platforms as precarious workplaces, and embodied negotiation of liminality where their bodily experiences blur online-offline boundaries. Drawing on multisensory ethnographic fieldwork, this study explores how sensory experiences, platform governance and systemic inequalities shape these women's precarious livelihoods. Beneath their public performances lie burnout, stigma and hidden injuries of inequality. By situating these women's experiences at the intersection of class, gender, rural-urban migration and platform capitalism, this research uncovers the intimate cost of precarious digital labour. It also highlights their resilience and creativity in navigating structural barriers. This study contributes to empirical and theoretical discussions on gendered labour, digital precarity and affective politics of precarity in contemporary urban China. |
| Keywords: | multisensory ethnography; rural-to-urban migration; platform gendered labour; digital precarity; embodied liminality; structural inequality |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129509 |
| By: | Hiroaki Hanyu; Shunsuke Ishii; Suguru Otani; Kazuhiro Teramoto |
| Abstract: | Most betting market models employ static frameworks that condition decisions on final odds. Using a unique dataset of interim odds from Japanese horse racing, this study examines the validity of such static analyses by asking whether there is a systematic relationship between expected returns and the trajectory of odds. We find that returns are negatively related to last-minute changes in odds, and that these late movements attenuate the favorite-longshot bias by weakening the correlation between final odds and returns. These patterns suggest that informed bettors place wagers at the final stage based on private signals, leaving surprises in final odds. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.14645 |
| By: | Anantharaman, Dr. Senthilkumar |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the FREEDOM Framework—a strategic macroeconomic model that integrates India’s multi-alignment diplomacy with Milton Friedman’s monetarist principles. It argues that diplomatic capital, defined as the trust and credibility accumulated through diverse international partnerships, functions as a stabilizing economic resource. By mapping seven key dimensions—Foreign Exchange stability, Resource security, Export competitiveness, Expectations management, Deficit control, Open markets, and Monetary discipline—the framework demonstrates how India’s foreign policy choices directly influence macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation control, exchange rate stability, and growth resilience. Drawing on Friedman’s emphasis on expectations and credibility, the paper shows that India’s diplomatic engagements act as transmission channels for macroeconomic stability. Strategic energy diplomacy, diversified trade agreements, and multilateral credibility are shown to anchor inflation expectations, attract investment, and buffer external shocks. The FREEDOM compass metaphor positions diplomacy as a directional tool for navigating global volatility, reinforcing that foreign policy is not peripheral but central to economic strategy. Ultimately, the study offers a multidimensional lens for policymakers, suggesting that sustaining macroeconomic resilience in India requires not only internal discipline but also the strategic deployment of diplomatic capital as a modern complement to monetary policy |
| Keywords: | Diplomatic Capital, FREEDOM Framework, Multi Alignment Strategy, Macroeconomic Resilience. |
| JEL: | B22 B3 B31 E02 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125928 |
| By: | Komatsubara, Takashi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether sports experience changes adolescents’ preferences. For this purpose, we conducted a survey of Japanese university students about their sports experiences, time preferences, and risk aversion. Our regression analysis shows that students’ sports experience does not significantly change their time preferences or risk aversion. This result implies that although students devote a lot of time to sports in Japan, sports still do not have a significant impact on students’ attitudes towards time and risk. |
| Keywords: | Sports Experience, Time Preferences, Risk Aversion, Student Survey |
| JEL: | D81 I21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126001 |
| By: | Juling, Dominik |
| Abstract: | The aim of this interdisciplinary study is to contribute to the field of disaster and climate conflict research. For this purpose, I qualitatively examine for the first time the impact of the devastating flood of 2010 on the conflict in Pakistan, more specifically the regional capacity of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), in the administrative units of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK). Also, I introduce the concept of state capacity into the debate, review its impact on the conflict and examine its possible contribution to the debate. I hypothesise that the concept of state capacity can explain the conflict better than the influence of disasters. This is tested with the help of a document analysis and expert interviews. Prior findings from mostly quantitative studies, such as the complex, bidirectional nature of the relationship between disasters and conflict or the concept of the unnatural disaster, were qualitatively confirmed and further explored in this study. It becomes clear that while the flood can provide benefits to the TTP and prolong the conflict, it cannot fundamentally change the outcome of the conflict. In this context, the key finding of this study is the importance of state capacity for the complex debate around disasters and climate conflict. More research in this direction is recommended, as the topic is expected to become much more relevant due to the increasing number and intensity of extreme weather events in the coming decades. |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gf9qc_v1 |
| By: | Devlina ((Corresponding author), Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Behind Government Data Centre, Kotturpuram, Chennai, 600025, India.); Santosh Kumar Sahu (Associate Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Madras) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to understand bribing in India’s informal business sector. Using World Bank’s informal sector business survey data, 2022, for three Indian states, we find that tax evasion and avoiding formal sector corruption are two primary reasons to continue in the informal sector. However, these reasons are insufficient for paying bribes as a way to stay informal. Businesses that cite these as primary reasons have a lower probability of bribing to continue operations in the informal sector. Instead, the probability of paying bribes is higher for those businesses that cite ease of registration and lack of knowledge & information about the registration process as one of the challenges in transiting to the formal sector. We also find that businesses with sales vulnerability and financial constraints have a higher probability of bribing to remain informal. To this view, policy focus should be on simplifying registration processes and spreading awareness and benefits of becoming a formal sector, which is in line with the theory of firm growth. Long-term investments that focus on improving the education and skills of informal owners and curb corruption should be considered. |
| Keywords: | Informal sector, bribe, corruption, sales-vulnerability, tax evasion, ease of registration |
| JEL: | D22 D73 L21 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2025-291 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Mihály Tamas Borsi (Universitat Ramon Llull) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines trade relations between China and the European Union from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the role of trade policy uncertainty alongside key economic and institutional factors. Using an extended gravity model, the results show that China’s economic growth is a dominant driver of trade flows. The study introduces a novel proxy for China’s trade policy uncertainty, finding that it significantly influences bilateral trade. Results are robust to different specifications. Additionally, the results indicate that while non-eurozone EU countries demonstrate higher trade flows with China, the immediate impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on EU trade remains limited. Given the anticipatory nature of trade policy uncertainty and its relationship with economic growth, the findings highlight the usefulness of trade uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of shifts in trade patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers to design strategies that promote greater stability and economic integration |
| Keywords: | international trade; economic growth; uncertainty; China; European Union; gravity model JEL classification:C33; F13; F14; O24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202506 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Marlon Seror; Hao Xu; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on “Million-Rouble Plants†built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting. We find a boom-and-bust pattern: Counties hosting these plants were 80% more productive than control counties in 1982 but 20% less productive by 2010. This decline reflects the performance of local establishments, which exhibit low productivity, limited innovation, and high markup. Specialization hindered spillovers, preventing the emergence of new clusters and local entrepreneurship. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/792 |
| By: | Shweta Bahl; Ajay Sharma |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data for India, this paper examines the incidence of education occupation mismatch and returns to education and EOM for internal migrants while considering the heterogeneity among them. In particular, this study considers heterogeneity arising because of the reason to migrate, demographic characteristics, spatial factors, migration experience, and type of migration. The analysis reveals that there exists variation in the incidence and returns to EOM depending on the reason to migrate, demographic characteristics, and spatial factors. The study highlights the need of focusing on EOM to increase the productivity benefits of migration. It also provides the framework for minimizing migrants' likelihood of being mismatched while maximizing their returns to education. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15420 |
| By: | Venkat Hariharan Asha; Ajay Ojha; Sutharson T; Lekha S. Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency data, the paper analyzes the link between public infrastructure investment and private corporate investment in India for the decade ending 2023–24. We adopt the ARDL model to investigate the existence of cointegration and find strong evidence of the crowding-in of private corporate investment both in the long- and short-run analyses. Moreover, long-term real interest rates and foreign direct investment provide higher estimates of crowding-in vis-Ã -vis short-term real interest rates and foreign portfolio investment, which underscore greater emphasis on systemic and fundamental factors (as compared to transitory factors) and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The recent thrust on deregulation and sustained enhancement in capital expenditure augur well in providing the necessary ambience to boost private investment and economic growth in the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Public Infrastructure Investment; Private Corporate Investment; Crowding-in effects; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E62 C32 H6 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1097 |
| By: | Pooja Batra; Ajay Sharma |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the impact of international migration on the food consumption and dietary diversity of left-behind households. Using the Kerala migration survey 2011, we study whether households with emigrants (on account of international migration) have higher consumption expenditure and improved dietary diversity than their non-migrating counterparts. We use ordinary least square and instrumental variable approach to answer this question. The key findings are that: a) emigrant households have higher overall consumption expenditure as well as higher expenditure on food; b) we find that international migration leads to increase in the dietary diversity of left behind households. Further, we explore the effect on food sub-group expenditure for both rural and urban households. We find that emigrant households spend more on protein (milk, pulses and egg, fish and meat), at the same time there is higher spending on non-healthy food habits (processed and ready to eat food items) among them. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15399 |
| By: | Kandukuri, Vishwesh; Jain, Kashish; Anand, Pratik |
| Abstract: | Most existing studies on the Magic Formula strategy have been conducted in the context of developed markets, while research in the Indian setting has remained limited and largely exploratory. The present study implements and evaluates the Magic Formula in the Indian equity market, focusing on NIFTY 100 constituents from 2007 to 2024. The Magic Formula, introduced by Joel Greenblatt, ranks firms based on earnings yield and return on capital to identify undervalued yet profitable companies. Using annual financial data and adjusted stock prices, we construct portfolios following the standard Magic Formula rules and compare their performance with the NIFTY 50 benchmark. Our findings reveal that even the unmodified version of the Magic Formula outperforms the benchmark substantially, generating approximately 1.7 times higher returns over the study period. These results are particularly notable given that the test universe consists of large, liquid, and relatively low-risk firms. The evidence suggests that extending the strategy to broader indices such as the NIFTY 250 or NIFTY 500 could yield even stronger results, underscoring the potential of systematic value-based approaches in Indian equity markets. |
| Keywords: | Magic Formula, Value Investing, Factor Investing, Quantitative Strategies, NIFTY 100, Indian Equity Market, Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126237 |
| By: | Kumar, Praachi (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Martorano, Bruno (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the impact of exposure to the social media platform Twitter on son-biased fertility preferences for women in India, using information from over a million Tweets, combined with Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data on more than a million respondents. We apply an instrumental variables strategy based on a popular national Twitter campaign attributed to the retirement of Indian cricketer, Sachin Tendulkar. We find that exposure to Twitter decreases discriminatory preferences regarding the sex of the child, particularly reducing son preference. These changes in preferences are mainly explained by the fact that social media content helps challenge harmful cultural norms. Specifically, we adopt a qualitative approach supported by a custom fine-tuned sequence classifier based on a pre-trained multilingual transformer encoder (XLM-RoBERTa) to show that Twitter served as a platform where Indian users discussed topics related to children, where most messages about children were neutral or progressive. We further demonstrate that content matters by focussing on an online campaign called #SelfieWithDaughter, and illustrate that social media exposure was particularly effective in shaping preferences in districts where the #SelfieWithDaughter campaign was active. We extend the main analysis to men and find that exposure to Twitter also reduces son preference for this group. Further evidence on the behavioural effects of social media exposure suggests a favourable but less straightforward effect on nutritional outcomes for girls under the age of five. All reported results from the heterogeneity analyses confirm that Twitter reduced discrimination, although it was less impactful for women in North India and those in districts with a higher scheduled caste population. |
| JEL: | J16 J13 O33 O12 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025023 |
| By: | Godehardt, Nadine; Mayer, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | This year's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin marked the largest gathering in the organisation's history, drawing more than 20 heads of state and 10 representatives of international organisations. At the SCO+ session, China's Head of State and Party Leader Xi Jinping delivered a keynote address, prominently unveiling the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). For Beijing, development, security, civilisation, and governance constitute the four pillars of building a "community with a shared future for mankind", in essence, a new world order. Amid today's ongoing upheavals, it is imperative for Germany and Europe to recognize China as a global strategic challenge. |
| Keywords: | China, Russia, Xi Jinping, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Global Governance Initiative (GGI), new world order, Germany, Europe, Global South, critical raw materials |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329917 |