|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Mohammad Zeqi Yasin |
| Abstract: | Do industrial "superstars" help others up or crowd them out? We examine the relationship between the spillovers of superstar firms (those with the top market share in their industry) and the productivity dynamics in Indonesia. Employing data on Indonesian manufacturing firms from 2001 to 2015, we find that superstar exposures in the market raise both the productivity level and the growth of non-superstar firms through horizontal (within a sector-province) and vertical (across sectors) channels. When we distinguish by ownership, foreign superstars consistently encourage productivity except through the horizontal channel. In contrast, domestic superstars generate positive spillovers through both horizontal and vertical linkages, indicating that foreign firms do not solely drive positive externalities. Furthermore, despite overall productivity growth being positive in 2001-2015, the source of negative growth is mainly driven by within-group reallocation, evidence of misallocation among surviving firms, notably by domestic superstars. Although Indonesian superstar firms are more efficient in their operations, their relatively modest growth rates suggest a potential stagnation, which can be plausibly attributed to limited innovation activity or a slow pace of adopting new technologies. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.11139 |
| By: | Eala, Samantha Julia Legaspi; Patrick, Rebecca; Capeding, Theo Prudencio Juhani; Vaughan, Cathy |
| Abstract: | As climate change exacerbates socioeconomic vulnerabilities, women, often carers, emerge as "invisible safety nets" sustaining family and community resilience. Set in a coastal town in Batangas, Philippines, the study explores how carers experience and navigate unpaid care work amid climate adaptation. Guided by feminist participatory action research, the study used photovoice, where 13 participants documented their experiences through photography and writing, then collaboratively interpreted their stories. For Filipino caregivers, climate change intensifies unpaid care work. Climate-related disruptions fracture their sense of wholeness, adding layers of grief and uncertainty to their responsibilities. They take on multifaceted roles across their family, community, and environments, as educators, providers, stewards, and leaders. In navigating intensifying care demands, they rely on community solidarity and spirituality, which serve as vital sources of strength, purpose, and hope in their collective efforts to adapt to climate change. By recognising unpaid care work in climate adaptation and providing carers with a platform to voice their lived experiences, the study hopes to advocate for climate change policies and programs that respond to unpaid care dynamics, reward women’s contribution, reduce unpaid care work, and advocate for redistribution of and male involvement in care work within families and communities. |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8gq43_v1 |
| By: | Riyadi, Muhammad Ilham; ; Asytuti, Rinda; Ahmad, Haikal Hamdani; fatulloh, Muhamad syafiq; Musyafa, Ahmad Nabil |
| Abstract: | The National Amil Zakat Agency (BAZNAS) plays a crucial role in the Islamic philanthropy ecosystem in Indonesia, yet analyses of its performance are often fragmented. This study aims to systematically synthesize and analyze empirical evidence regarding the performance of BAZNAS across three key dimensions: efficiency, effectiveness, and governance, amidst the rapid wave of digitalization. This research employs the Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method, following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) protocol. Through a search process across the Scopus, Google Scholar, and SINTA databases, 40 relevant journal articles published between 2015-2025 were identified and analyzed in-depth. The synthesis results show a consensus that BAZNAS is effective in its poverty alleviation programs (as measured by the CIBEST Model and NZI) but faces challenges in operational efficiency (identified via DEA/SFA studies) and uneven implementation of governance. A research gap was found, namely the lack of studies integrating these three performance dimensions to explain their reciprocal relationships. As its main contribution, this study proposes an integrated conceptual framework that positions governance (GCG) as a fundamental independent variable influencing operational efficiency and program effectiveness, with digital technology adoption acting as a moderating variable. This framework can serve as a reference for future empirical research. Keywords: BAZNAS, Systematic Literature Review, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Zakat Governance, Conceptual Framework, PRISMA. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n4ejv_v1 |
| By: | Kanis Saengchote |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Thai firms utilize capital market debt – specifically, commercial papers (CPs) and bonds – to manage leverage, liquidity, and investment. Using a firm-quarter panel from 2001 to 2024, we find that firms with more diversified debt structures maintain higher leverage and invest more, consistent with financial flexibility theories. CP issuance is positively associated with both capital expenditures and working capital growth; firms adjust issuance dynamically in response to their liquidity needs. Notably, CPs are not merely used as bridge instruments but as a strategic financing tool. We further demonstrate that mutual fund holdings of CP, particularly by money market funds, are associated with higher firm-level investment. These findings highlight the role of non-bank financial intermediaries in facilitating access to credit, suggesting that monetary policy transmission increasingly depends on how liquidity is intermediated through capital markets. |
| Keywords: | Capital market debt; Commercial paper; Debt composition; Institutional investors; Investment |
| JEL: | G31 G32 G23 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:242 |
| By: | Thomas Lapi (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Joseph Le Bihan (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); José Halloy (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, UFR Physique UPCité - UFR Physique [Sciences] - Université Paris Cité - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Sabina Issehnane (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Florian Vidal (UiT - The Arctic University of Norway [Tromsø, Norway], LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Minerals and metals are crucial to modern technologies. Over the past decades, China has built up a dominant position on the value chain of energy and digital technologies through domestic mining, refining and manufacturing. Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI) in the metal sector are integral to this strategy: by investing abroad, Chinese firms establish a global value chain system that contributes to securing the supply of raw materials for domestic industries. This paper assesses global Chinese FDI in the metal sector from 2005 to 2024 and discusses their integration into China's global political strategy. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis, we show that China's investments reflect an integrated supply security approach, with interlinked investments in metals, energy and transport infrastructures, exemplified with a case study in Peru. We identified a sharp decline of Chinese FDI in the Australian metal sector over the period studied, reflecting geopolitical tensions and the tightening relationship between Australia and the United States. Chinese firms preferentially target countries with high-market concentration of specific strategic materials such as Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru, to control extraterritorial mineral reserves. Overall, this mining diplomacy enables China to secure the supply of its industrial sector and strengthen its dominant position in the value chains of strategic technologies. |
| Keywords: | China, Critical raw materials, Supply chains SC, Foreign direct investments, Geopolitics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05293866 |
| By: | Paponpat Taveeapiradeecharoen; Nattapol Aunsri |
| Abstract: | Forecasting inflation in small open economies is difficult because limited time series and strong external exposures create an imbalance between few observations and many potential predictors. We study this challenge using Thailand as a representative case, combining more than 450 domestic and international indicators. We evaluate modern Bayesian shrinkage and factor models, including Horseshoe regressions, factor-augmented autoregressions, factor-augmented VARs, dynamic factor models, and Bayesian additive regression trees. Our results show that factor models dominate at short horizons, when global shocks and exchange rate movements drive inflation, while shrinkage-based regressions perform best at longer horizons. These models not only improve point and density forecasts but also enhance tail-risk performance at the one-year horizon. Shrinkage diagnostics, on the other hand, additionally reveal that Google Trends variables, especially those related to food essential goods and housing costs, progressively rotate into predictive importance as the horizon lengthens. This underscores their role as forward-looking indicators of household inflation expectations in small open economies. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.14805 |
| By: | Phanjarat Daengnimvikul; Kanis Saengchote |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the pricing impact of Thailand’s Thai ESG Fund – a tax-incentivized retail program launched in 2023 Q4 – on the corporate bond market, separating primary-market issuance from secondary-market repricing. Using Thai corporate THB bonds issued from 2018 to 2024, we test two hypotheses. At issuance (H1), we compare ESG coupons with observationally similar non-ESG issues via propensity-score matching. The average pairwise coupon spread (ESG minus matched non-ESG) is -29 bps overall, -23 bps pre-policy, and -92 bps post-policy, yielding a post-pre difference of -69 bps (all statistically significant). In the secondary market (H2), we analyze seasoned bonds issued in or before 2023 Q3 and estimate a difference-in-differences regression with bond and quarter fixed effects, supplemented by an event study. The ESG×Post coefficient ranges from +31 to +42 bps, and event-time estimates show flat pre-trends with the ESG spread turning positive from two quarters and building to 49 bps by the fourth quarter. Together, the policy reduces funding costs for new ESG issues while raising required yields on older ESG bonds, consistent with demand concentrating in newly eligible, on-the-run ESG supply and a higher off-the-run liquidity premium. |
| Keywords: | ESG bonds; Tax-incentivized mutual funds; Greenium; Off-the-run premium; Sustainable finance policy |
| JEL: | G12 G18 H25 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:241 |
| By: | Liping Gao; Ghislain N. Gueye; Hyeongwoo Kim; Jisoo Son |
| Abstract: | Using data from 29 regional housing markets in China, this study examines the long-run relationships between housing prices and key macroeconomic variables. Conventional cointegration methods can be misleading, as estimated coefficients often contradict standard demand-supply theory even when statistical tests indicate cointegration. Among the variables, only real income consistently explains regional housing price dynamics, whereas real interest rates and building costs fail to do so consistently across markets. Region-specific models reveal substantial heterogeneity and are both statistically robust and economically meaningful. Panel cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence fail to detect cointegration when such heterogeneity is ignored. These findings highlight the limitations of uniform national approaches and underscore the need for tailored, region-specific housing policies. |
| Keywords: | Housing Market; Cointegration; Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares; Panel Cointegration Test with CSD; Disaggregated Regional Data |
| JEL: | R30 E00 C51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-07 |
| By: | Jean, Sebastian; Méjean, Isabelle; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | • In this paper, we (i) discuss the drivers of Chinese success in manufacturing; (ii) analyse the resulting challenges for the German and French economies: and (iii) present economic guidelines for economic policies to deal with China. • Over the past two decades, China has emerged as the world's leading industrial power, accounting for roughly one-third of global manufacturing value. Chinese industrial success was driven by a combination of supportive industrial and macroeconomic policies, but also by fierce domestic competition and economies of scale. • European businesses face acute challenges due to growing competition at home and in export markets, declining demand from China, and increasing protectionism in the global economy. China now leads Europe in a number of cutting-edge technologies. • Confronted with these challenges, we propose a precautionary strategy for Europe that maintains the benefits of openness, but does not naively hand over sensitive areas of the European economy to Chinese dominance. This applies most clearly to sectors closely linked to national security in the communication, technology, and defence space. • In important sectors where Europe lags technologically (e.g., batteries), the best policy is a strategy that welcomes Chinese and other countries' foreign direct investment in Europe, preferably linked to technology transfers and joint ventures. In sectors that have little strategic relevance and where Europe is not competitive, the best policy response is to let European buyers reap the benefits of low Chinese prices. |
| Abstract: | • In diesem Papier (i) erörtern wir die Treiber des chinesischen Erfolgs in der Industrie, (ii) analysieren die daraus resultierenden Herausforderungen für die europäische Wirtschaft und (iii) präsentieren wirtschaftspolitische Leitlinien für die Wirtschaftspolitik im Umgang mit China. • In den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten hat sich China zur weltweit führenden Industrienation entwickelt und steht inzwischen für rund ein Drittel der globalen Wertschöpfung im verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Der industrielle Erfolg Chinas wurde durch eine Kombination aus unterstützender Industrie- und Makropolitik, aber ebenso durch intensiven binnenwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerb und Skaleneffekte begünstigt. • Europäische Unternehmen sehen sich zunehmend mit gravierenden Herausforderungen konfrontiert: wachsender Konkurrenz im Binnen- und Exportmarkt, rückläufige Nachfrage aus China sowie einer Zunahme des Protektionismus in der Weltwirtschaft. In mehreren Schlüsseltechnologien hat China Europa inzwischen überholt. • Angesichts dieser Herausforderungen schlagen wir für Europa eine Strategie vor, welche die Vorteile wirtschaftlicher Offenheit wahrt, ohne jedoch in naiver Weise sensible Bereiche der europäischen Ökonomie einer chinesischen Dominanz zu überlassen. Dies gilt in besonderem Maße für Sektoren, die eng mit nationaler Sicherheit im Bereich Kommunikation, Hochtechnologie und Verteidigung verknüpft sind. • In bedeutenden Sektoren, in denen Europa technologisch im Rückstand ist (z. B. Batterien), besteht die beste Politikstrategie darin, chinesische wie auch andere ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Europa zuzulassen - vorzugsweise gekoppelt an Technologietransfers und Joint Ventures. In Sektoren, die weder strategisch relevant sind noch in denen Europa wettbewerbsfähig ist, besteht die sinnvollste Politikantwort darin, europäischen Konsumenten und Produzenten die Vorteile niedriger chinesischer Preise zugutekommen zu lassen. |
| Keywords: | EU, China, Trade policy, Handelspolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:328251 |
| By: | Boss, Ruchira; Hoddinott, John; Colen, Liesbeth |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive evidence linking urbanization, market access, and rising incomes to dietary transitions and nutritional outcomes, both globally and within India, Indigenous communities, particularly in the North East Region (NER) of India, have received little attention in this context. This paper examines how income and market access shape the diets and nutrition of Indigenous Naga women in a geographically isolated and culturally distinct setting, providing a unique context to study the early stages of dietary and nutritional change. Using primary survey data from more than 800 women across cities, villages, and remote hamlets, we find that most women meet the minimum dietary diversity threshold and maintain adequate diet quality even in low-income, low-market access settings. However, higher income is consistently associated with more diverse diets, particularly through increased consumption of oils, meats, and pulses. Higher market access is associated with increased frequency of oil and fat consumption, reflecting a shift away from traditional food practices. Women in highaccess regions also exhibit higher Body Mass Index (BMI), indicating a shift toward overweight and obesity with increased proximity to food markets. By focusing on an isolated and understudied region, this study provides new evidence on the dual role of income and market access in shaping diets and nutrition, while highlighting the importance of Indigenous food systems in ensuring adequate diet quality. These findings have broader relevance for communities and regions undergoing similar transitions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:373336 |
| By: | Tiantian Yang; Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | To address the dual environmental challenges of pollution and climate change, China has established multiple environmental markets, including pollution emissions trading, carbon emissions trading, energy-use rights trading, and green electricity trading. Previous empirical studies suffer from known biases arising from time-varying treatment and multiple treatments. To address these limitations, this study adopts a dynamic control group design and combines Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo) empirical strategies. Using panel data on A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2024, this study investigates the marginal effects and interactive impacts of multiple environmental markets implemented in staggered and overlapping phases. Existing pollution emissions trading mitigates the negative effects of carbon emission trading. Carbon trading suppresses (improves) financial performance (if implemented alongside energy-use rights trading). The addition of energy-use rights or green electricity trading in regions already covered by carbon or pollution markets has no significant effects. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.26403 |
| By: | Yongheng Hu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we model USD-CNY bilateral exchange rate fluctuations as a general stochastic process and incorporate monetary policy shock to examine how bilateral exchange rate fluctuations affect the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. Numerical simulations indicate that as the mean of bilateral exchange rate fluctuations increases, i.e., currency devaluation, the RCA index rises. Moreover, smaller bilateral exchange rate fluctuations after the policy shock cause the RCA index to gradually converge toward its mean level. For the empirical analysis, we select the USD-CNY bilateral exchange rate and provincial manufacturing industry export competitiveness data in China from 2008 to 2021. We find that in the short term, when exchange rate fluctuations stabilize within a range less than 0.2 RMB depreciation will effectively boost export competitiveness. Then, the 8.11 exchange rate policy reversed the previous linear trend of the CNY, stabilizing it within a narrow fluctuation range over the long term. This policy leads to a gradual convergence of provincial RCA indices toward a relatively high level, which is commensurate with our numerical simulations, and indirectly enhances provincial export competitiveness. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15169 |
| By: | Akesaka, Mika (Kobe University); Shigeoka, Hitoshi (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This study demonstrates that heat disproportionately impairs human capital accumulation among low-performing students compared with their high-performing peers, using nationwide examination data from 22 million students in Japan. Given the strong correlation between academic performance and socioeconomic background, this suggests that heat exposure exacerbates pre-existing socioeconomic disparities among children. However, access to air conditioning in schools significantly mitigates these adverse effects across all achievement levels, with particularly pronounced benefits for lower-performing students. These findings suggest that public investment in school infrastructure can help reduce the unevenly distributed damage caused by heat to student learning, thereby promoting both efficiency and equity. |
| Keywords: | air conditioning, adaptation, student achievement, distributional impact, heat, children, climate change |
| JEL: | I21 I24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18165 |
| By: | Abigail Stocker |
| Abstract: | Maternity benefits are targeted at improving both children's and mothers' outcomes, but many women in the informal sector are not eligible for traditional maternity leave programs. This paper investigates the impact of IGMSY, a unique maternity benefits program in India, on early childhood education. The program launched in 2011, was piloted in 52 out of India's 640 districts, and provided cash transfers to women for their first and second live births regardless of employment status. Using a difference-in-differences approach across districts and cohorts, I find that the program increased preschool enrollment by 9 percentage points but did not increase enrollment, reading, or math competency in primary school. The effects on enrollment are strongest for children from poorer households, likely due to both improvements in health-related outcomes and increases in income. |
| Keywords: | maternity benefits; cash transfer; education; preschool; mothers |
| JEL: | I25 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:173 |
| By: | Nguemgaing, Hélène; Kannan, Sangita; Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | In April 2025, China imposed export controls on seven rare earth elements (REEs) and related embedded products to all countries (Jackson et al. 2025), intensifying an already critical debate over the security and resilience of global supply chains. The Chinese announced that exporters must apply for licenses to sell these materials overseas, a move widely seen as a strategic maneuver. The restriction, though not an outright ban, introduces review mechanisms that complicate export logistics and international procurement. The elements subject to the restrictions include scandium, yttrium, samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, and lutetium. These materials are classified as medium and heavy rare earths, known for their magnetic, optical, and catalytic properties. Each plays a specific and often irreplaceable role in a range of high-tech and strategic sectors. These restrictions came at a time when trade tensions were escalating between the United States and China and sent ripple effects through industries that rely on rare earths for advanced manufacturing, defense, clean energy, and digital infrastructure. In June 2025, a framework for a trade deal was agreed upon between the United States and China, which was expected to ease export restrictions of rare earth products (Miao and Feng 2025). Despite the trade deal, it is important to note that the licensing system to obtain approvals from China still holds good for rare earth and related product exports. Though it is too early to state the effects of the trade deal on exports of rare earth products for all sectors, it is being reported that exports to the United States surged in June 2025 compared to May (Reuters 2025), though approvals for western companies are taking longer and there is increased scrutiny (Emont et al. 2025). China dominates the entire rare earths value chain. With China mining over 60 percent and processing over 80 percent of the world’s rare earths (REIA, 2025; Baskaran, 2024), and producing around 90 percent of the world’s high-performance rare earth magnets (Bradsher 2025), significant global dependence on a single country for these materials creates both economic vulnerabilities and strategic concerns. This article explores the implications of the current restrictions, the industrial relevance of the targeted elements, and how the situation can be understood through the lens of game theory. Specifically, our lens on this issue provides an understanding of why China reversed course in terms of restricting exports of rare earth products. |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-25-12 |
| By: | Saraswat, Deepak (University of Connecticut); Sabarwal, Shwetlena (World Bank); Lacey, Lindsey (Allegheny County Department of Human Services); Jha, Natasha (University of Notre Dame); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Cohen, Rachel (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Nearly 200 million children under five in low- and middle-income countries face developmental deficits despite growing access to early childhood services. We report evidence from a randomized controlled trial (N=3, 131 children in 201 schools) in Nepal’s government system that tested three models combining classroom quality with parental engagement. All teachers received a 15-day training on pedagogy, standards, and caregiver outreach, after which schools were randomly assigned to models where caregiver sessions were led by teachers alone, teachers supported with in-class helpers, or external facilitators. The program raised children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations and improved caregiver engagement by similar magnitudes, with strongest effects when teachers received support that preserved classroom quality while engaging families. Gains were concentrated among disadvantaged households, underscoring the potential to reduce early inequalities. Mechanism analysis shows that the program shifted home and school inputs from substitutes to complements, creating reinforcing pathways for child development. |
| Keywords: | non-cognitive skills, cognitive skills, early childhood development, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Nepal |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18159 |
| By: | Hammar, Olle; Bonander, Carl; Bensch, Gunther; Jakobsson, Niklas; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | Begum et al. (2018) study gender bias in parental attitudes using an experimental approach in rural Bangladesh. Households are reported as randomly assigned to treatment conditions in a lab-in-the-field allocation task. We show that the group assignment was inherited from Islam (2019), a previous non-randomized experiment conducted in the same region. The lack of randomization contradicts the design descriptions provided by the authors in Begum et al. (2018) and elsewhere, and raise concerns about the validity of comparisons across treatment groups. It also points to serious shortcomings in the reporting and transparency of the study design-issues that mirror those that led to the retraction of Islam (2019) from the European Economic Review. |
| Keywords: | Replication, Reproduction, Parental bias, Gender, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | B41 C12 C93 D13 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:267 |
| By: | Yuki Konaka (Bank of Japan); Toshitaka Maruyama (Bank of Japan); Fumitaka Nakamura (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Central banks around the globe have increasingly incorporated the NBFI (Non-Bank Financial Intermediary) sector into their stress testing exercises, including exploratory scenario analyses, reflecting its growing importance in recent years. This paper outlines the methodology used to develop the scenario for the exploratory analysis presented in the Financial System Report (April 2025) issued from the Bank of Japan, which explicitly examines the impact of stress amplified by investment funds on Japanese financial institutions. The scenario considers a case in which investment funds, predominantly open-end funds, liquidate their securities holdings in response to a negative shock in the global financial market and the real economy, similar to what happened during the Global Financial Crisis. The negative shock is amplified through three primary channels: (i) a further decline in asset prices, (ii) a deeper slowdown in the real economy triggered by the asset price decline, and (iii) impairments of investments and loans to overseas funds. The resulting amplifying impact on the capital adequacy ratio by the end of the simulation period (end of FY 2027) is approximately a 1 percentage point reduction for IABs (internationally active banks). The increase in credit costs, stemming from the deterioration of the real economy, broadly reduces the ratio across all banks, while the declines in asset prices and impairments of investments and loans also contribute to the decrease for IABs. Immediately following the onset of stress, the sharp decline in asset prices exacerbates the valuation gains and losses of securities. It is notable, however, given limited data and research available on the NBFI sector, including open-end funds and hedge funds and their potential ripple effects on the broader financial system, our findings should be considered exploratory. They are based on a certain set of assumptions and therefore warrant careful interpretation. |
| Keywords: | global investment funds; stress tests; price elasticity |
| JEL: | G12 G15 G17 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e11 |
| By: | Naoki Odanaka |
| Abstract: | This paper intends to make clear the current state of the three concepts of science, that is to say, “science for science, †“science for society, †and “science for policy, †to examine the relation among them and to present the social backgrounds of each concept. Given that the Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Japan’s national academy, faces its most significant institutional reform since its establishment in 1949 (hereinafter the 2026 institutional reform), we will use SCJ as a case. This reform offers a compelling case study for considering the role that “science†should play in a state once considered developed but now said to be in decline. We will tackle the aforementioned tasks by outlining the historical and social background and specific details of SCJ’s 2026 institutional reform and by pointing out its problems. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tergaa:496 |
| By: | Anna Gelpern (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Omar Haddad (Oxford University); Sebastian Horn (University of Hamburg, Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Paulina Kintzinger (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Bradley C. Parks (AidData, William & Mary); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The authors present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio in EMDEs is effectively collateralized--amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. The authors document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20 percent of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. The paper's findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower's reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs. |
| Keywords: | China, collateral, sovereign debt and default, lending, Belt and Road Initiative |
| JEL: | F34 G15 H63 H81 K12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp25-20 |
| By: | Xiqian Cai; Shuai Chen; Zhengquan Cheng; Emily E. Nix |
| Abstract: | In China, only 37% of divorce petitions citing domestic violence are granted, with evidence suggesting that judges often prioritize preserving marriages even in cases of abuse. We investigate whether judicial decision-making can shift in response to broader social change. Exploiting the rise of the #MeToo movement, which reshaped societal perceptions of gender-based violence, we find that female judges in China became 8 percentage points more likely to grant divorces in domestic violence cases. These results suggest that judicial attitudes and actions on gender-based violence cases are malleable. |
| JEL: | J12 K36 K38 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34345 |
| By: | Jakob Vestergaard (Roskilde University); Robert H. Wade (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the World Bank's protracted and conflicted attempts at shareholding reform from 2008 to the present, situating them within the broader context of multipolarity and intensifying geopolitical rivalries. Despite repeated commitments since the Bretton Woods conference that voting power should reflect countries' relative weight in the world economy, the Bank's governance remains strikingly misaligned. China, India, and Indonesia—three of the four most populous countries—remain markedly underrepresented relative to their economic size, while many advanced economies retain disproportionate influence.Drawing on interviews with Executive Directors, Bank staff, and external observers, the paper traces the reform trajectory across successive rounds of review (2008, 2010, 2015, 2018, 2020, and the ongoing 2025 process). It highlights how technical proposals for "dynamic formulas" and equitable redistribution have consistently collided with entrenched geopolitical interests, notably U.S. resistance to a meaningful increase in China’s voting power, European reluctance to relinquish single-seat privileges, and Japan’s determination not to be overtaken by China. At the same time, institutional design—particularly the constitutionalized principle of “preemptive rights” in capital increases—has entrenched inertia by allowing any shareholder to veto dilution of its relative voting share. The result is a widening gap between rhetoric and reality: while official discourse stresses "equitable voting power, " actual reforms have delivered only fractional adjustments, often eroded in subsequent years. The paper sets out three scenarios for the 2025 shareholding review—a worst-case outcome of stalemate, a modest reform limited to symbolic gestures, and a best-case scenario involving a new institutional design based on misalignment limits, responsible shareholding, and open leadership selection. We argue that unless substantive reform is forthcoming, the Bank risks undermining its legitimacy as the world’s premier development finance institution in an increasingly multipolar world. |
| Keywords: | World Bank reform, Equitable voting power, geopolitics |
| JEL: | F53 F55 O19 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp241 |
| By: | Johan Miorner (Department of Human Geography, Lund University); Christian Binz (Eawag- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology); Shreya Nath (Water, Environment, Land and Livelihoods Labs (WELL Labs)); Sneha Singh (Water, Environment, Land and Livelihoods Labs (WELL Labs)); Bernhard Truffer (Eawag- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Middle-income cities (MICs) are characterized by rapid urbanisation, expanding innovation capacities, and relatively weak path dependencies in their urban infrastructure systems. This could create unique opportunities for transformative leapfrogging – bypassing conventional infrastructure solutions in favour of novel, more sustainable approaches. Yet, most MICs tend to replicate global gold standards rather than embark on complex innovation trajectories. We argue that conventional urban planning and transitions concepts are ill-suited to address how to foster transformative leapfrogging in MICs and develop a novel analytical framework that combines socio-technical transitions theory with insights from innovation systems research. The framework highlights the creative problem-solving capacity of actors in dynamic MICs and specifies under what conditions experimentation with second-best solutions may lead to new transformative infrastructure templates. We apply the framework to a case study of how decentralized wastewater treatment and reuse systems have gained significance in Bengaluru (India). Drawing on 54 interviews, 23 site visits and 6 workshops, we show how regime-defying policies were introduced in response to development pressures and outline the factors triggering a de facto experimental space, in which actors could experiment with new solutions at scale. We then show that systemic barriers still hamper their maturing. We sketch an alternative approach to transformative leapfrogging in MICs that represents a shift from conventional planning logics and niche-focused transition models towards actively leveraging the ingenuity and problem-solving capacity generated within rapidly evolving urban contexts. |
| Keywords: | urban infrastructure, transformative leapfrogging, innovation, water reuse, Bengaluru |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Currency Issue Department (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The Bank of Japan introduced a new series of Bank of Japan notes on July 3, 2024. The transition to the new Bank of Japan notes has progressed steadily. Recently, however, as illustrated by the advancement of cashless payments, the environment surrounding cash has changed significantly, and the ratio of the new Bank of Japan notes to the total volume of banknotes in circulation has remained at a low level compared with when the Bank of Japan notes were renewed in 2004. This is thought to be due to (1) the increase in banknotes in circulation; (2) the decrease in receipts and payments of banknotes between financial institutions and the Bank; and (3) the difference in the scale of demand for the new Bank of Japan notes, reflecting differences in social conditions. The Bank of Japan will continue to make every effort to ensure the smooth circulation of the new Bank of Japan notes. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev25e09 |
| By: | Masahiro Enomoto (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuhiro Asano (Graduate School of Business, Osaka Metropolitan University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of going-concern (GC) information disclosure on firms' investment efficiency, focusing on Japan's revised disclosure system introduced in 2009. The reform establishes a two stage framework that requires disclosure in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) when events or conditions are identified that raise significant doubt about the GC assumption. If management's plans are expected to mitigate these concerns, disclosure is limited to the MD&A; however, if material uncertainty remains, more extensive disclosure is required in the financial statement footnotes and audit reports. Using a sample of financially distressed Japanese firms from 2010 to 2020, we document evidence of underinvestment among firms that disclose GC information compared to distressed firms that do not disclose such information. Similar results are observed even when GC information is separated into two stages of disclosure. The results remain robust to the use of entropy balancing and propensity score matching. Further analysis indicates that strong relationships with banks and high-quality audits mitigate underinvestment. Overall, our findings demonstrate the real effects of mandated GC information disclosure and highlight the role of institutional mechanisms in shaping investment behavior. |
| Keywords: | Going concern information; Investment efficiency; Real effects; Banks; Auditors |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-24 |
| By: | Trevor Incerti |
| Abstract: | A growing literature finds high returns to firms with legislative connections. Less attention has been paid to returns from bureaucratic connections and to organizations beyond for-profit firms. Using data recording the first post-bureaucracy position occupied by all former civil servants in Japan, I reveal a bifurcated job market for former bureaucrats. High-ranking officials from elite economic ministries are more likely to join for-profit firms, where they generate returns such as increased government loans and positive stock market reactions. Lower-ranking officials are more likely to join nonprofits linked to government ministries, which receive higher-value contracts when former bureaucrats are in leadership roles. These patterns suggest that while firms wish to hire bureaucrats who can deliver tangible benefits, ministries also shape revolving door pathways by directing benefits to ensure long-term career value for civil servants. These findings reframe revolving door dynamics as the result of both firm-driven demand and bureaucratic incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.22173 |
| By: | Yibo Qiao; Yingcheng Li; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | Place dependence is a widely recognized concept but has rarely been quantified in existing research. Employing the Wasserstein Distance algorithm from machine learning literature and China’s Annual Survey of Industrial Firms dataset, this paper introduces a novel method to measure the place dependence of industrial dynamics in Chinese cities, and explore its impact on urban economic performance. Our empirical findings confirm the presence of place dependence in Chinese cities, and show that cities diversifying into more related and complex industries tend to exhibit higher levels of place dependence. Moreover, place dependence appears to complement the effects of relatedness and complexity in enhancing urban economic performance. These findings offer important insights for regional industrial development and urban planning practices. |
| Keywords: | Place dependence, path dependence, knowledge complexity, industrial dynamics, economic performance, China |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2531 |
| By: | Ahad Yaqoob; Syed M. Abdullah |
| Abstract: | The application of deep learning models for stock price forecasting in emerging markets remains underexplored despite their potential to capture complex temporal dependencies. This study develops and evaluates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network model for predicting the closing prices of ten major stocks across diverse sectors of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Utilizing historical OHLCV data and an extensive set of engineered technical indicators, we trained and validated the model on a multi-year dataset. Our results demonstrate strong predictive performance ($R^2 > 0.87$) for stocks in stable, high-liquidity sectors such as power generation, cement, and fertilizers. Conversely, stocks characterized by high volatility, low liquidity, or sensitivity to external shocks (e.g., global oil prices) presented significant forecasting challenges. The study provides a replicable framework for LSTM-based forecasting in data-scarce emerging markets and discusses implications for investors and future research. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.14401 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Nepal has, so far, been relatively insulated from recent global trade and aid-related disruptions given its small export sector. Economic activity has continued to gradually recover, underpinned by a rebound in construction and manufacturing, continued expansion of hydropower, and a good harvest that helped offset the impact of the September 2024 floods. Growth in FY2024/25 is estimated to reach 4.3 percent, although still below potential. Inflation is expected to remain within the Nepal Rastra Bank’s target of about 5 percent. The external position has strengthened, with robust growth in exports, remittances, and tourism outpacing the recovery in imports. Despite improved growth, non-performing loans have continued to rise, eroding bank capital. The financial health of the savings and credit cooperatives remains challenging. |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/285 |
| By: | Jheelum Sarkar |
| Abstract: | Catastrophic floods directly risk 1.8 billion lives worldwide, most of whom are from East and South Asia. How do extreme floods reshape paid labor outcomes? To answer this, I focus on a 1-in-100 year flood event in India. I first combine Sentinel-1 SAR with JRC Global Surface Water dataset to generate flood map. Using information from this map in various rounds of periodic labor force surveys, I estimate gender-specific dynamic effects of the flood shock. Key results show that men experienced short-lived reduction in their employment while women faced a delayed but persistent decline in their working hours. Men suffered most in secondary sector and increased their participation in primary sector. Women were hit hardest in the tertiary sector. Such sectoral impacts could be attributable to disruptions in infrastructure and physical capital. Moreover, marital status and dependency burden further shape the gender differential effects of the extreme flood event. Results remain robust under alternative treatment definitions. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08856 |
| By: | Minali Grover; Ajay Sharma |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the influence of inheritance rights on women' empowerment in India. We employ the quasi-natural experiment framework wherein; five states amended the Hindu Succession Act (HSA) from 1976 to 1994 before it was federally amended in 2005. Further, we apply difference-in-difference (DID) strategy and consider triangulation approach to identify women empowerment indicators namely: access to resources, agency, and outcomes to measure varying dimensions of empowerment. Using the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-I), our results indicate a positive impact on marriage choice, intimate partner violence, physical, and civil autonomy. However, negative impact on household autonomy and no significant on economic participation for women exposed to state amendments. Further, exploring the heterogeneities in terms of socio-economic status, location, level of patriarchy in a state, gender of the head of the household. Overall, the study highlights that the impact of inheritance law is not unfirm across different groups. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10437 |
| By: | Sourish Mustafi; Punarjit Roychowdhury; Bharti Nandwani |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of exposure to hard-security counter-insurgency operations during school-age years on human capital and labour market outcomes in India. We exploit the 1989 introduction of the Greyhounds—a specialized commando force created to combat Naxalite insurgents—in Andhra Pradesh (AP), as a natural experiment. Of all the states affected by Naxalite violence, only AP raised such a police force at the time. We compare outcomes of school-age cohorts in AP with older cohorts, and contrast these patterns with those in other affected states. |
| Keywords: | Children, Civil conflict, Counterinsurgency, Education, Employment, India |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-67 |
| By: | Sebastian Horn; Carmen M. Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive overview of China’s lending to developing countries—a central feature of today’s international financial system. Building on our previous research and the work of others, we document the scale, destination, and terms of China’s overseas lending boom, as well as the lending bust and defaults that have followed. We compare China’s lending boom to past boom-bust cycles and discuss the implications of China’s rise as an international creditor on recipient countries and sovereign debt markets. The evidence indicates that Chinese state banks are assertive and commercially sophisticated lenders. For recipient countries, however, the jury is still out: it remains to be seen whether the gains from China’s lending—through growth and improved infrastructure—will outweigh the more immediate burdens of debt service or the multifaceted costs of default. |
| JEL: | E3 F34 F65 F68 N2 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34359 |