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on South East Asia |
| By: | Euston Quah (Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University); Wai Mun Chia (Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University); Yeow Hwee Chua (Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University); Zach Lee (Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University); Jun Rui Tan (Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN Green Future is a multi-year regional research project that involves the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Climateworks Centre and nine country teams from leading universities and think tanks across Southeast Asia (Cambodia, Indoesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietname). The researchers undertake quantitative and qualitative climate policy analysis and develop net zero pathways to inform policy recommendations and support the strategice foresight of policy makers. The Phase 1 country reports priorities and actions to date, and key techology and policy opportunities to further advance domestic climate action. The Phase 1 regional report positions Southeast Asia's low carbo transition pathways within a global context using the country reports and other studies. This series of reports, produced througha synthesis of existing research and knowledge, builds the case for advancing the region's climate agenda. Phase 2 of the ASEAN Green Future project uses modelling to quantitatively assess the different decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nan:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/284 |
| By: | Laborde Debucquet, David; Olivetti, Elsa B.; Piñeiro, Valeria; Illescas, Nelson |
| Abstract: | This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition. |
| Keywords: | food systems; computable general equilibrium models; policies; social safety nets; sustainable development; agriculture; economic development; nutrition; poverty; Indonesia; South-eastern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:149269 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth accelerated in 2024 supported by a rebound in exports and accommodative policies. However, the successful export-led growth model faces significant new challenges from a more adverse and uncertain global trade environment. The authorities are undertaking a major institutional restructuring, and planning reforms and scaling-up public investment to boost medium-term growth. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/283 |
| By: | Leah Costlow; Rachel Gilbert; William A. Masters; Flaminia Ortenzi; Ty Beal; Ashish Deo; Widya Sutiyo; Sutamara Noor; Wendy Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | New methods for modeling least-cost diets that meet nutritional requirements for health have emerged as important tools for informing nutrition policy and programming around the world. This study develops a three-step approach using cost of healthy diet to inform targeted nutrition programming in Indonesia. We combine detailed retail prices and household survey data from Indonesia to describe how reported consumption and expenditure patterns across all levels of household income diverge from least cost healthy diets using items from nearby markets. In this analysis, we examine regional price variations, identify households with insufficient income for healthy diets, and analyze the nutrient adequacy of reported consumption patterns. We find that household food spending was sufficient to meet national dietary guidelines using the least expensive locally available items for over 98% of Indonesians, but almost all households consume substantial quantities of discretionary foods and mixed dishes while consuming too little energy from fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds. Households with higher incomes have higher nutrient adequacy and are closer to meeting local dietary guidelines, but still fall short of recommendations. These findings shed new light on how actual food demand differs from least-cost healthy diets, due to factors other than affordability, such as taste, convenience, and aspirations shaped by marketing and other sociocultural influences. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.20203 |
| By: | Andrea Ariu (University of Milan); Katariina Nilsson Hakkala (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of service exports in emerging Asian economies, with particular emphasis on digital services, which have experienced considerable expansion across the region. Utilizing a structural gravity model, the findings indicate that supply-side factors predominantly drive service exports growth, rather than demand factors or trade policies. An in-depth analysis of these supply-side factors underscores the pivotal role of human capital, specifically education and English proficiency, in bolstering exports, especially within the region’s digital business process services sector. Further evidence reveals that stringent regulatory environments and barriers to digital infrastructure considerably impede exports in sectors such as telecommunications, computer and information services, and other business services. Conversely, enhanced internet connectivity not only increases exports of digital services but also boosts the exports of non-digital services. |
| Keywords: | Asia;emerging economies;trade in services;digital services |
| JEL: | F10 F14 L80 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021650 |
| By: | Kenichi Ueda (University of Tokyo); Chanthol Hay (National University of Battambang) |
| Abstract: | Cambodia is one of the two first countries that adopted a retail CBDC in October 2020. The design of the CBDC, called the Bakong, is a bit unique. We find a few design flaws that could potentially damage the central bank and then the Cambodian economy as a whole. We show some key statistics from our own survey in 2022 to clarify our arguments. The Bakong is offered in two currencies, the Khmer Riel (KHR) and the US dollar (USD), as Cambodia has been highly dollarized. We discuss theoretical predictions for the CBDC based on three kinds of substitutes: paper money, bank deposits, and foreign currencies. The third one is specific to the Bakong. Unlike a typical local currency CBDC, the USD Bakong may substitute for the KHR more. Moreover, it has been announced that the retail Bakong is legally not a liability of the central bank, but from the viewpoint of the underlying technology and economics, it is a central bank liability. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf579 |
| By: | Leanghak Hok; Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | Scholars and policymakers have vigorously debated what the impact of government spending on economic growth is. Some current research and theoretical models suggest that the reaction of economic growth to the extension of government spending can be either positive or negative. This article intends to investigate the inverted-U shaped relationship between output growth and government spending (i.e., government fixed capital formation [GFCF] and government final consumption expenditure [GFCE]). Ordinary least squares (OLS) is employed as an approach to annual data for Cambodia obtained from 1971 to 2015. The result reveals that GFCF and GFCE have an inverted-U shaped relation with economic growth and that 5.40% and 7.23% are the optimal values of GFCF and GFCE, respectively. The labour growth rate and export growth rate contribute positively to the growth rate of output. This study indicates that the increasing level of government expenditure reduces the efficacy of government spending, and also helps Cambodia's policymakers to control fiscal policy more efficiently. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02368 |
| By: | Anaya Longaric, Pablo; Cera, Katharina; Georgiadis, Georgios; Kaufmann, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We explore whether investment funds transmit spillovers from local shocks to financial markets in other economies. As a laboratory we consider shocks to financialmarket beliefs about the probability of a rare, euro-related disaster and their spillovers to Asian sovereign debt markets. Given their geographic distance from and relatively limited macroeconomic exposure to the euro area, these markets are an ideal testing ground a priori stacking the deck against finding evidence for investment funds transmitting spillovers from euro disaster risk shocks. Analyzing proprietary security-level holdings data over the period from 2014 to 2023, we find that investment funds strongly shed Asian sovereign debt in response to euro disaster risk shocks. Markets with greater investment-fund presence exhibit considerably larger price spillovers. The main driver of this sell-off is the need to generate liquidity to meet investor redemption demands rather than portfolio rebalancing. Especially market liquidity determines which sovereign debt investment funds shed. Taken together, our findings suggest that due to a flighty investor base investment funds are powerful transmitters of spillovers from local shocks across global financial markets. JEL Classification: F34, F45, G23 |
| Keywords: | euro disaster risk shocks, investment funds, sovereign debt markets, spillovers |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253131 |
| By: | KO, Yu-Ting |
| Abstract: | This study aims to explore the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Taiwan in the Kyushu region, particularly focusing on the establishment of facilities in Kumamoto by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), on the development of airport infrastructure and its subsequent influence on the growth of regional tourism. The research focuses on Taiwanese visitors to Kyushu, encompassing both business and leisure travelers, with particular attention to changes in the number of flights between Taiwan and Kyushu, as well as fluctuations in visitor numbers to various prefectures within Kyushu as travel destinations. By analyzing flight data and tourism statistics, the study finds that FDI from TSMC has driven an increase in the number of scheduled flights at Kumamoto and surrounding airports, leading to a rapid rise in Taiwanese visitors to Kyushu. Moreover, the travel destinations of these visitors have expanded from a previous concentration in Fukuoka to include Kumamoto, Oita, and other prefectures. The findings indicate that industrial investment significantly stimulates regional transportation and tourism sectors, contributing to a deeper understanding of the interplay between industrial development and tourism economy. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000251 |
| By: | Qi Shao (School of Public Finance and Taxation, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China; Economic Growth Centre, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Danhua Deng (Fudan University); Zhuo Qiao (School of Public Finance and Taxation, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China); Xinyang Li (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Tianyu Bai (School of Business, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China) |
| Abstract: | This study uses the implementation of the Golden Tax Project Phase III (CTAIS-3) in China as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the impact of big data tax enforcement on the corporate tax digital transformation. By constructing the corporate tax digital transformation index, the findings reveal that CTAIS-3 significantly promotes corporate tax digital transformation through compliance and cost effects. |
| Keywords: | Big Data Tax Enforcement; Corporate Tax Digital Transformation; Compliance Effect; Cost Effect |
| JEL: | H25 M15 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nan:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Timor-Leste’s financial buffers and favorable demographics provide an opportunity to develop its economy. Despite impressive progress since independence, the economy remains under-diversified, while fiscal and external imbalances are large. The Petroleum Fund’s (PF) balance stood at 939 percent of non-oil GDP in 2024, making Timor-Leste’s Net Foreign Asset position one of the highest in the world as a share of the domestic economy. But oil and gas production has ceased and large withdrawals from the PF to finance fiscal deficits, should they continue, would lead to its full depletion by the end of the 2030s. Timor-Leste has one of the youngest populations in the Asia-Pacific region, holding promise for future growth. |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/278 |
| By: | Reo Takaku (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University); Naohisa Shobako (Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University); Taisuke Nakata (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | During the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japanese children lived with strict mitigation measures at school, such as eating school lunches silently and wearing masks during physical exercise classes, even after those mitigation measures have been relaxed worldwide. Excursions and other school events were frequently cancelled, especially in 2020 and 2021. This study conducts a retrospective survey on school experiences to understand how the strict mitigation measures were related to children's mental health and well-being. Results revealed school excursion cancellation to be associated with a higher risk of developing depressive symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 1.543 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.109-2.148]), and high cancellation rate of other school events to be associated with dissatisfaction in school experience (OR 1.650 [95% CI 1.222-2.228]). In the subsample analysis, we found that girls and children with no extracurricular activities tended to exhibit depressive symptoms due to the cancellation of school excursions. Overall, our study demonstrated that persistent strict mitigation measures at schools might be a key factor in understanding children’s mental health and psychological well-being during a long-lasting pandemic. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf585 |
| By: | Ruoyan Zhang (School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China; Economic Growth Centre, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Shengqiang Zhou (School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, China); Ru Chen (Bay Area International Business School, Beijing Normal University, China; Economic Growth Centre, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | China is harmonizing the symbiotic relationship between humans and nature through efforts to implement grassland ecological compensation policies (GECP), which have triggered changes in the resilience of farmers' livelihoods within grassland ecosystems. This study examines the direct impacts of climate change on the livelihood resilience of farm households and the direct and moderating effects of GECP on livelihood resilience by constructing a robust empirical strategy using sample data from a multi-year tracking of the regions where GECP was implemented. The results showed that the level of livelihood resilience of farm households showed an increasing trend during the period 2010–2019, buffering capacity and learning capacity are important components in the livelihood resilience of farm households, and higher temperatures and reduced precipitation have negative impacts on the livelihood resilience of farm households. The direct effect of GECP implementation significantly increased the level of livelihood resilience of farm households in the second cycle, but GECP was shown to play a significant moderating role in the relationship between climate change risk and livelihood resilience. The policy moderating effect attenuated the impact of climate change risk on the resilience of farmers' livelihoods and was more pronounced for farmers in husbandry-oriented livelihood strategies. Subsidy intensity is a key factor influencing the moderating effect, more so among farmers with lower levels of resilience and livestock-reducing production decisions. Enhancing the diversity and precision of subsidies is a future direction of improvement for GECP. |
| Keywords: | Livelihood resilience, Climate change, Grassland ecosystem, Ecological compensation, Moderating effect |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nan:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Deng, Guoying; Du, Pengcheng; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Xu, Shu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the association between corporate income taxes and labor market informality. We present a theoretical framework showing that a higher tax enforcement can push firms to pass on the burden to workers by reducing their social security compliance as well as downsizing and lowering wages. The model propositions are tested using a regression discontinuity design that exploits a national corporate tax reform in China. We find that for every one percentage point increase in the effective tax rate, firms reduce their probability of making basic social security contributions by 0.8%, their compliance rate by 1.4 percentage points, and the probability of making supplementary contributions by 0.6%, while the number of workers and wages fall by 4.4% and 0.7%, respectively. We observe that the effects are more salient among firms privately owned and controlled, large businesses, and in locations where social security contributions are directly collected by the social security administration. The findings suggest that workers not only bear part of the higher corporate taxes faced by firms, but an increase in firms’ tax burden contributes to social security evasion and informality in labor markets. JEL Codes: H32, H55, J30, J23, H25 |
| Keywords: | taxes; labour market; social security; remuneration; China; Asia; Eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140480 |
| By: | Kumara T M, Kiran; Birthal, Pratap Singh; Meena, Dinesh Chand; Kumar, Anjani |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is multi-functional, producing economic goods including food, feed, fibre, and fuel, as well as providing several intangible or non-tradable services to society free of cost. Non-tradable services, unlike economic goods, remain unpriced; as a result, farmers are not compensated monetarily for the benefits of the several non-tradable services they provide through agriculture. Recognizing the monetary value of non-tradable ecosystem services is crucial to incentivize farmers to adopt eco-friendly technologies and practices for the sustainable development of agriculture. Through a meta-analysis of the existing evidence on ecosystem services, this study attempts to estimate the value of ecosystem services by using direct and indirect valuation methods—for example, carbon sequestration, methane emission, nutrient availability, biological nitrogen fixation, and water saving—generated by several important technological and agronomic interventions, namely the direct seeding of rice (DSR), zero-tillage in wheat, leguminous crops, organic manure, integrated nutrient management, and agroforestry, based on studies conducted in India. It also explores the trade-offs between the non-tradable and tradable ecosystem services attributable to these interventions. The monetary value of the non-tradable services resulting from most of these interventions is quite large, 34–77% of the total value of all the ecosystem services. However, not all interventions result in a win-win situation that yields improvements in both tradable and non-tradable outcomes. While no-till wheat, legumes, and integrated nutrient management result in a win-win outcome, there are trade-offs between the tradable and non tradable ecosystem services in the cases of directed seed rice, organic manure, and agroforestry. This evidence suggests that not all agricultural technologies and practices are beneficial for farmers, despite their higher environmental benefits. Thus, the findings of this study imply that agricultural policy should provide incentives for the adoption of technologies and practices to conserve ecosystems and natural resources. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem services; agriculture; economic value; farmers; sustainability; incentives; technology adoption; India; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140796 |
| By: | Bhanjdeo, Arundhita |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade in India, farmer producer organizations (FPOs) have emerged as a means of collectivizing smallholder farmers and providing them access to extension, innovation, and market services. FPOs that center women farmers, traditionally at a disadvantage vis-à-vis their male counterparts in access to resources and extension, can serve to enhance women’s agency and collective action in agricultural value chains. We used 59 key informant interviews and nine focus group discussions to examine the constraints to, and facilitators of, women’s and men’s participation in three women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, an eastern Indian state. Additionally, we study the gender and power dynamics in such FPOs and the potential of collective efficacy to enhance agricultural and empowerment outcomes. The FPO intervention we evaluated was supported by an NGO that provides FPO members with both agricultural and gender-based inputs to improve agronomic practices, market linkages, agricultural yields and profits, and the role of women both within the FPO and within their households and communities. In this paper, we provide contextual insights on ‘what works’ to empower women in this context. Women’s perceptions of the benefits from FPO membership were heterogeneous. Our qualitative analysis suggests a nuanced picture of women’s autonomy and decision-making within and outside their household, further shaped by women’s and men’s perception of shifts in women’s access to resources and services. The emerging lessons provide inputs for development implementers and policymakers to recognize diverse contextual barriers in designing FPO interventions to enable and enhance women empowerment outcomes. The research also contributes to the body of knowledge on local gender norms and understanding of empowerment. |
| Keywords: | agricultural value chains; collectivization; extension; gender; innovation; women’s empowerment; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:145187 |
| By: | Pavithra Manivannan (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Tribunals were expected to deliver better outcomes than traditional courts on three counts: speed, expertise, and cost. In practice, they have largely morphed into courts with limited subject-matter jurisdiction. Vacancies, lack of expertise, and procedural delays have eroded their supposed advantage. The result is a fragmented adjudicatory landscape that consumes resources without delivering better outcomes. Reform efforts, whether abolition, consolidation, or design tweaks, have lacked evidence and a holistic perspective of the judicial system. This paper highlights the need for systematic evaluation of tribunals as a starting point and makes the case for building institutional capacity to undertake such assessments. It then draws on examples from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose reform pathways that are sensitive to the nature of disputes and the degree of judicial function they require. |
| JEL: | K K41 K49 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:41 |
| By: | Holger Görg, Toshihiro Okubo, Eric Strobl, Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use comprehensive historic firm level data for 1925 to 1938 to estimate productivity spillovers from Japanese textile companies’ affiliates in China (Zaikabo) to local cotton producers in China. We geo-localized firms in order to capture the important role of distance in facilitating productivity spillovers. Our results provide clear evidence for positive productivity spillovers from Zaikabo to local Chinese firms. This goes hand-in-hand with a change in production technology towards greater use of capital (spindles). We also find that spillovers are very localised, being strongest within a radius of up to 10km around the Zaikabo. Furthermore, evidence for spillovers is particularly strong for firms in Shanghai. Our paper is the first to provide evidence for such spillovers from foreign firms in a historical context. |
| JEL: | F23 N65 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2506 |
| By: | YoungGak KIM; Kazuyuki MOTOHASHI |
| Abstract: | Using the "Survey on AI and Data Utilization" we conducted an empirical analysis of the management benefits of AI utilization in companies and the complementary assets (human resources, data, and organization) involved. AI is utilized in various aspects of corporate activities. Here, we broadly divided these uses into three categories: those aimed at improving operational efficiency, primarily through cost reduction; those aimed at enhancing marketing to create customer value; and those aimed at creating innovation, such as new product development and new business development. We then analyzed the differences in the complementary assets required for each category. Our results revealed that with regard to data assets, utilizing internal company data is important for improving operational efficiency, while external data is also necessary for enhancing marketing and creating innovation. Furthermore, we found that utilizing internal company data to produce innovations and enhance marketing through AI requires the use of data scientists. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25025 |
| By: | Jean, Sebastian; Méjean, Isabelle; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | • In diesem Papier (i) erörtern wir die Treiber des chinesischen Erfolgs in der Industrie, (ii) analysieren die daraus resultierenden Herausforderungen für die europäische Wirtschaft und (iii) präsentieren wirtschaftspolitische Leitlinien für die Wirtschaftspolitik im Umgang mit China. • In den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten hat sich China zur weltweit führenden Industrienation entwickelt und steht inzwischen für rund ein Drittel der globalen Wertschöpfung im verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Der industrielle Erfolg Chinas wurde durch eine Kombination aus unterstützender Industrie- und Makropolitik, aber ebenso durch intensiven binnenwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerb und Skaleneffekte begünstigt. • Europäische Unternehmen sehen sich zunehmend mit gravierenden Herausforderungen konfrontiert: wachsender Konkurrenz im Binnen- und Exportmarkt, rückläufige Nachfrage aus China sowie einer Zunahme des Protektionismus in der Weltwirtschaft. In mehreren Schlüsseltechnologien hat China Europa inzwischen überholt. • Angesichts dieser Herausforderungen schlagen wir für Europa eine Strategie vor, welche die Vorteile wirtschaftlicher Offenheit wahrt, ohne jedoch in naiver Weise sensible Bereiche der europäischen Ökonomie einer chinesischen Dominanz zu überlassen. Dies gilt in besonderem Maße für Sektoren, die eng mit nationaler Sicherheit im Bereich Kommunikation, Hochtechnologie und Verteidigung verknüpft sind. • In bedeutenden Sektoren, in denen Europa technologisch im Rückstand ist (z. B. Batterien), besteht die beste Politikstrategie darin, chinesische wie auch andere ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Europa zuzulassen - vorzugsweise gekoppelt an Technologietransfers und Joint Ventures. In Sektoren, die weder strategisch relevant sind noch in denen Europa wettbewerbsfähig ist, besteht die sinnvollste Politikantwort darin, europäischen Konsumenten und Produzenten die Vorteile niedriger chinesischer Preise zugutekommen zu lassen. |
| Abstract: | • In this paper, we (i) discuss the drivers of Chinese success in manufacturing; (ii) analyse the resulting challenges for the German and French economies: and (iii) present economic guidelines for economic policies to deal with China. • Over the past two decades, China has emerged as the world's leading industrial power, accounting for roughly one-third of global manufacturing value. Chinese industrial success was driven by a combination of supportive industrial and macroeconomic policies, but also by fierce domestic competition and economies of scale. • European businesses face acute challenges due to growing competition at home and in export markets, declining demand from China, and increasing protectionism in the global economy. China now leads Europe in a number of cutting-edge technologies. • Confronted with these challenges, we propose a precautionary strategy for Europe that maintains the benefits of openness, but does not naively hand over sensitive areas of the European economy to Chinese dominance. This applies most clearly to sectors closely linked to national security in the communication, technology, and defence space. • In important sectors where Europe lags technologically (e.g., batteries), the best policy is a strategy that welcomes Chinese and other countries' foreign direct investment in Europe, preferably linked to technology transfers and joint ventures. In sectors that have little strategic relevance and where Europe is not competitive, the best policy response is to let European buyers reap the benefits of low Chinese prices. |
| Keywords: | Handelspolitik, EU, China, Trade policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:327995 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago); Lian Chen (University of California, Los Angeles); Steven Durlauf (University of Chicago); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines intergenerational mobility in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia during their transitions from central planning to market systems. We consider mobility as movement captured by changes in status between parents and children. We provide estimates of overall mobility, which involves mobility during transition to a system’s steady state, as well as steady state mobility, which captures long-run mobility independent of transitional dynamics or shifts in the marginal distribution of outcomes across generations. We further decompose overall mobility into structural and exchange components. We find that the PRC exhibits more overall educational mobility than Russia, mostly because of greater structural mobility, whereas Russia exhibits greater steady-state educational mobility. In contrast, both overall and steady state occupational mobility are similar in the PRC and Russia. Comparing these results to the United States (US), we find steady state mobility in education is substantially higher in the US and Russia compared to the PRC, but occupational steady state mobility is comparable in all three countries. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility;education;occupation;transition economy |
| JEL: | J62 I25 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021651 |
| By: | Siddharth George; Mr. Divya Kirti; Nils Olle Herman Lange; Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Rajesh Vijayaraghavan |
| Abstract: | We study how access to bank financing affects product innovation in a developing country context by analyzing a reform that broadened credit eligibility for many small Indian manufacturing firms. Newly eligible firms borrow more but, on average, do not introduce new or more complex products or expand product scope. Many firms appear to operate below efficient scale and use credit to expand existing product lines rather than innovate. Moreover, most firms face several additional barriers that weaken the impact of credit on innovation. Among firms that do not face these additional barriers, credit access boosts innovation, as in advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; SMEs; financial frictions; market barriers |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/192 |
| By: | Daisuke Fujii (RIETI); Taisuke Nakata (University of Tokyo); Takeki Sunakawa (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new measure of monthly prefecture-level GDP in Japan. Our measure is derived in two steps. In the first step, we compute the production-side GDP and expenditure-side GDP using a variety of official statistics. In the second step, we compute the simple average of the two levels and make an adjustment to it to ensure consistency with the official national quarterly GDP. For more recent periods when official statistics are not available, we estimate monthly GDP using alternative data. Our monthly prefecture-level GDP measures can be used to analyze various economic questions at regional levels. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf582 |
| By: | Dominik Naeher; Virginia Ziulu |
| Abstract: | Previous research indicates that zero tillage technology offers a profitable alternative to crop residue burning, with significant potential to reduce agricultural emissions and contribute to improvements in air quality and public health. Yet, empirical evidence on the link between zero tillage adoption and residue burning remains scarce, adding to the difficulties policy makers face in this context. This study addresses this gap by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery with household survey data from India to examine the empirical relationship between zero tillage and residue burning. We compare different methods for constructing burn indicators from remote-sensing data and assess their predictive power against survey-based measures. Our findings reveal a robust negative association between zero tillage and crop residue burning, with reductions in the incidence of burning of 50% or more across both survey data and satellite-derived indicators. By providing insights into optimal geospatial data integration methods, our study also makes a methodological contribution that can inform future research and support evidence-based policy interventions for more sustainable agricultural practices. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.01351 |
| By: | Boeing, Philipp; Brandt, Loren; Dai, Ruochen; Lim, Kevin; Peters, Bettina |
| Abstract: | China's patenting activity has surged over the past two decades, yet questions remain about the quality and sources of innovation. We develop a new method to measure the importance of a patent for innovation, based on the use of a Large Language Model to process patent text data and a new theory of the innovation process. We apply this method to study the evolution of patenting in China from 1985 until recently, and also classify patent ownership using a comprehensive business registry. Our method and data yield several novel facts about Chinese patenting. Among these are that the patents which are important for innovation have become less important on average; that knowledge within China has become more important than knowledge outside of China for directing innovation in China; and that knowledge produced by Chinese entities has been more important than knowledge produced by foreign entities in China. These findings have implications for China's growth trajectory and reflect both global trends in the decline of innovativeness and potential effects of domestic policy. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:328016 |
| By: | Pankaj K Agarwal; H K Pradhan; Konark Saxena |
| Abstract: | This study examines active liquidity management by Indian open-ended equity mutual funds. We find that fund managers respond to inflows by increasing cash holdings, which are later used to purchase less-liquid stocks at favourable valuations. Funds with less liquid portfolios tend to maintain larger cash reserves to manage flows. Funds that make active liquidity choices yield statistically and economically significant gross and net returns. The performance differences between funds with varying activeness in altering liquidity highlight the importance of active liquidity management in markets with substantial cross-sectional liquidity differences such as India. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02741 |