|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Manabu Furuta (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of government financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Japanese government implemented various programs to support SMEs facing financial distress, leading to a notable decline in bankruptcies. We find that SMEs with strong ties to main banks and exporters were more likely to receive support, while subsidiaries or affiliates of large corporations were less likely to benefit. Although prior studies suggest that such policies may encourage "zombie" firms, our analysis shows that in the manufacturing sector, financial assistance fostered investment. JEL Classification: D22; D25; L52 |
| Keywords: | SMEs; COVID-19; Financial Support; PSM-DID |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2518 |
| By: | Monteverde, Richard P.; Mejia, Ivy P.; Dasas, Louie B.; Bazer, Saddam C.; Garcia, Charissa Mae S.; Aquino, Carina S. |
| Abstract: | This study explores the conceptualization and operationalization of middle skills within the Philippine context, examining how various institutions define and implement middle-skills training. It also assesses the alignment of these training programs with workforce demands, particularly in relation to the priority sectors identified in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. Employing a multi-method qualitative research design, the study integrates data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s Labor Force Survey, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews with Technical and Vocational Education and Training practitioners and government stakeholders. Quantitative analysis reveals that Level 5 postsecondary graduates often outperform some Level 6 bachelor’s degree undergraduates in both employment rates and salary levels, demonstrating the viability of middle-skills pathways that do not require a four-year degree. However, qualitative findings highlight a fragmented understanding of middle skills across sectors, which undermines policy coherence and limits the effectiveness of training initiatives. The study also identifies a disconnect between existing curricula and the evolving demands of the labor market, further compounded by inadequate stakeholder engagement. These findings suggest that, in the absence of a unified definition and structured policy framework, middle-skills training risks obsolescence in the face of technological change and shifting economic conditions. A sustainable pathway, beginning in elementary education and continuing through vocational training, offers a practical and accessible route to employment and economic participation. The study emphasizes the need for a strategic, data-driven approach supported by robust policy coordination, multi-sector collaboration, and a responsive training ecosystem. A comprehensive reform agenda is urgently needed to ensure that middle-skills development contributes meaningfully to workforce adaptability, innovation, and national competitiveness. Future research should examine the long-term impact of middle-skills training on employment trajectories, productivity, and economic resilience. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | middle skills;workforce development;technical education;Philippine labor market;policy alignment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-22 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Casas, Lyle Daryll D.; Manuel, Aaron Carlos G. |
| Abstract: | Violence against children has profound and lasting effects on physical and emotional well-being, educational outcomes, and economic productivity. In low- and middle-income countries such as the Philippines, limited longitudinal data hinders researchers from examining the medium- and long-term effects of early exposure to violence across a range of well-being outcomes. This paper describes the magnitude of parental violence in the Philippines and estimates its lasting effects on school enrollment and academic performance in mathematics, reading, and science among young Filipino adolescents using longitudinal data. Findings indicate that, after controlling for child demographic, cognitive, health, academic, and household socioeconomic factors, young Filipino adolescents who experience parental violence at age 10 (with a 39.5% prevalence) have 52–57 percent lower odds of attending school by age 14 compared to unexposed peers. When analyzed by sex, boys and girls exposed to parental violence at age 10 were 48 percent and 66 percent less likely, respectively, to be enrolled by age 14. Although academic performance in math, reading, and science indicates a negative trend among exposed adolescents, the associations were not statistically significant. This study highlights how early exposure to parental violence may disrupt school participation. While evidence on academic performance suggests an adverse impact, it is less conclusive. These findings align with child development theories that emphasize how violence at home undermines children's behavior and overall well-being, which in turn leads to poor educational outcomes. The results suggest the need for sustained implementation and expansion of nationwide, multisectoral early interventions to prevent violence in the home and support the long-term academic development and well-being of Filipino learners. Additionally, strengthening data collection through improved measures of violence and academic performance will better elucidate the relationship between early exposure to violence and educational outcomes. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | parental violence;early adolescence;school enrollment;academic performance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-21 |
| By: | Rahmat Sabuhari; Rusman Soleman; Marwan Man Soleman; Johan Fahri; Muhammad Rachmat |
| Abstract: | Regional civil servants in Indonesia, especially in the eastern regions, are now required to exhibit innovative work behavior (IWB) as mandated by national regulations. While transformational leadership (TFL) and work engagement (WE) are believed to foster such behavior, the impact and the moderating role of organizational justice (OJ) remain underexplored. This study addresses that gap by examining how TFL and WE contribute to IWB development within the context of public sector work, with OJ potentially moderating these relationships. This study aimed to determine the direct influence of TFL, WE, and OJ on IWB and to analyze the role of OJ as a moderating variable. This research was conducted in the eastern region of Indonesia, especially North Maluku Province, in various regional apparatus organizations. and a random sample of 500 people was taken. This study used Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) regression analysis as a data analysis method to test the causal relationship and moderation effects of each hypothesis. The study findings reveal that while TFL and WE directly influence IWB, OJ neither has a direct effect nor serves as a moderating variable. These findings offer theoretical and practical contributions to local government organizations in Indonesia, emphasizing the importance of leadership and engagement in enhancing innovative behavior at work. This study extends and enhances the development of social exchange theory based on civil servants' IWB. Furthermore, this study expands the theoretical perspective by examining how TFL, WE, and OJ influence innovative work behavior practices to improve employee innovative behaviour. Finally, this study empirically examines the moderating impact of organizational justice on the relationship between TFL and WE on IWB. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.20320 |
| By: | Rawadee Jarungrattanapong; Therese Lindahl |
| Abstract: | Artisanal fisheries are significant for poverty alleviation, but they are severely threatened by overfishing and climate change effects. Governance solutions can be hard to find when their implementation and success depend on both social and ecological contexts. In this study, our objective is to increase our understanding of behavioral strategies adopted by artisanal fisheries under different types of regulations using a field experiment in the form of a so-called common-pool resource (CPR) experiment with 540 artisanal fishers in Nakorn Si Thammarat province, Thailand. Our results reveal that: (i) a quota treatment provide higher overall efficiency and leads to more sustainable management compared to the treatment with an unregulated fishery. (ii) the higher probability of punishment in the quota treatment promotes more equal sharing of payoffs from the experiment among group members compared to a quota treatment with a low probability of punishment; and (iii) a higher degree of monitoring in the quota system prevents resource depletion. Our results suggest that the community empowerment in these artisanal fishery communities is not strong enough to make fishers cooperate effectively without regulation and that a quota system may be one plausible solution. Our results also suggest, however, that the design of the monitoring and punishment systems may need careful consideration to ensure a sustainable solution. |
| Keywords: | Quota; Self-governance; Total allowance catches; Artisanal fisheries; Lab-in-the-field experiment |
| JEL: | Q22 Q28 C93 D70 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:237 |
| By: | Sarah Xue Dong; Agung Satyadini; Mathias Sinning |
| Abstract: | Tax compliance among small businesses remains low in developing countries, yet little is known about how regional context shapes the effectiveness of enforcement strategies. Both theory and evidence suggest an ambiguous relationship between compliance and geographic proximity to tax offices. We study this issue using a large-scale natural field experiment with Indonesia's tax authority involving 12, 000 micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Businesses were randomly assigned to receive deterrence, information, or public goods letters, or no message. All letters improved compliance, with deterrence messages producing the largest gains - substantially increasing filing rates and raising monthly tax payments. Each dollar spent on deterrence letters generated about US$30 in additional revenue over the course of a year. We observe high compliance among non-treated MSMEs near metropolitan tax offices and find that enforcement messages successfully raise compliance in non-metropolitan regions to comparable levels. However, targeting already compliant MSMEs near metropolitan tax offices backfires, underscoring the need for geographically tailored tax administration strategies. These results provide novel experimental evidence on the relation between geographic proximity and the effectiveness of tax enforcement, helping to reconcile mixed findings in the tax compliance literature. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.02328 |
| By: | Daño, Maribel |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) scholarships effectively target the poor while achieving internal and external efficiency outcomes. It defines “poor” in two ways: (1) individuals with an income below USD 3 per day, based on the World Bank threshold; and (2) those with disadvantaged status according to TESDA’s client classification, which includes 4Ps beneficiaries, rebel returnees, displaced persons, and other vulnerable groups. Two datasets were used for the analysis: the 2018–2022 Study on the Employment of Technical and Vocational Education and Training Graduates from TESDA and the TESDA Training Management Information System (T2MIS) data covering all TESDA scholars. The SETG dataset contains information on scholars versus non-scholars and includes income data for poor scholars, while the T2MIS dataset classifies scholars according to disadvantaged status. In addition, focus group discussions and interviews were conducted to enrich the analysis. One of the key findings highlights the decline in the targeting of disadvantaged scholars from 2018 to 2022 and how scholar motivation and the presence of TESDA regulations in training institutions impact outcomes for poor or disadvantaged scholars. Qualitative focus group discussions and interviews reveal the need for a more reliable method to accurately filter genuine poor scholars who will be committed to performing. The study provides insights for TESDA's allocation of scholarship budgets regarding whether regional needs and provincial poverty incidences are taken into account. Policy recommendations include requiring Technical Vocational Institutions to use national databases, such as the national ID system and other relevant data sources, to more effectively identify disadvantaged scholars. Additionally, the study recommends assessing scholar motivation during the selection process, as our results indicate that motivation significantly influences scholar performance. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph |
| Keywords: | TVET;scholarship;poor;skills;disadvantaged;linear probability model;propensity score matching |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-19 |
| By: | UNICEF Indonesia; Ministry of National Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia; The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | pandemi COVID-19, kesejahteraan anak, partisipasi anak, perasaan anak, suara anak |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4360 |
| By: | Ohms, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the research framework and hypothesis development for a quantitative study on heuristics and biases in employee decision-making in Singaporean workplaces. The underlying theories used are the Bounded Rationality and Prospect Theories. This study addresses research gaps previously identified by a systematic literature review (Ohms, 2025b), particularly focusing on non-investment contexts and Singapore. The study identifies overconfidence, herding, and decision avoidance biases as the independent variables; information evaluation, searching information, and procrastination as the dependent variables; and time pressure and complexity as the moderating variables. These hypotheses establish a rigorous theoretical foundation for investigating the specified relationships, contributing to new knowledge in behavioural economics and organisational practice. |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vd4x8_v1 |
| By: | Ohms, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a detailed methodological approach to a quantitative study investigating heuristics and biases in employee decision-making in Singaporean workplaces. Building upon the research gaps identified in a systematic literature review of Ohms (2025b), which highlighted the limited focus on non-investment contexts and the Singaporean workplace, this study designs a mono-quantitative cross-sectional survey. The methodology further builds upon the research framework and hypotheses outlined in a publication of Ohms (2025a). The study then uses these publications to define participant sampling, research instrument development, and data analysis. Emphasis is placed on critical data validation steps, including detecting and handling univariate and multivariate outliers, assessing data normality for Likert scale responses, and evaluating consistency through reliability testing. Also, the paper details the identification and robust treatment of heteroscedasticity in regression analyses by applying HC3 standard errors. Ethical considerations are also discussed. This study aims to guide researchers undertaking similar behavioural economics and management studies, illustrating a robust approach to ensuring data quality and analytical rigour in complex social science research. |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:43tg6_v1 |
| By: | Xinyan Deng |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the 2018 Chinese Household Income Project survey data to evaluate the income gaps between an "outsider" ethnic minority group, the Mongols, an "insider" ethnic minority group, the Manchus, and the majority Han group in urban and rural areas of Liaoning province and Inner Mongolia in China. Three statistical methods, a simple first-order OLS linear regression, linear regressions with interaction terms, and the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition, are used to investigate the income disparity amongst the three groups. The results indicate that Mongols suffer a significant ethnic wage penalty attributable to possible discrimination in the rural areas of these two provinces, while the urban income gaps between the three groups can mostly be explained by participation in public sector occupations or affiliation with the Chinese Communist Party. In rural settings, Mongols also have higher returns to public sector jobs and CCP membership compared to the other two ethnic groups. The findings suggest that Chinese affirmative actions regarding ethnic policy are effective in accelerating the integration of ethnic minorities with Han in the outcomes of the labor market. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.21625 |
| By: | Sonna Vikhil ((corresponding author) Madras School of Economics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600025); K.S. Kavi Kumar (Madras School of Economics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600025) |
| Abstract: | While many developing countries, including India, increasingly started using unconditional cash transfers in agriculture (UCTAs) to improve welfare of people, the effectiveness of such policies are still being evaluated. The impact of UCTAs can be evaluated from multiple perspectives, including expenditure on inputs, allocation of time across different activities by the farmers etc. Using data from the 2019 and 2024 NSSO’s Time Use Survey, this study aims to investigate the effects of a cash transfer program – Rythu Bandhu Scheme - introduced in Telangana on the time use patterns of rural agricultural households.The time allocation in a day has been classified into activities corresponding to four broad categories: System of National Accounts (SNA) (e.g., Employment and Production-related), Extended SNA (ESNA) (e.g., Unpaid domestic services and caregiving), Non-SNA (NSNA) (e.g., Learning, Socialization and Leisure etc), and Self-care (SC) (e.g., Eating, Sleeping etc). The program’s causal impacts are evaluated separately for both periods using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) framework to address cross-equation residual correlation. Additionally, to address selection bias, Average Treatment effects on the Treated (ATT) has been estimated ignoring residual correlation. The study also employed Propensity Score Matching (PSM), to ensure a valid quasi-experimental design. The 2019 findings demonstrate an initial trend towards more engagement in SNA and SC activities, coupled with a contraction in time spent on ESNA and NSNA activities. This pattern indicates an immediate response to the cash transfer, possibly driven by short-term adjustments in labour supply and household well-being. The 2024 estimates, on the other hand, show time use pattern that is more sustained: households engage more time on NSNA and, to a lesser extent, ESNA activities while spending less time on SNA and SC. These shifts indicate a settling into a new equilibrium facilitated by assured income from the UCTAs, where households diversify their time usage beyond the market production and prioritise leisure, learning, and social activities |
| Keywords: | Cash Transfers; Agriculture; Time-Use Patterns |
| JEL: | D13 I38 J22 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2025-287 |
| By: | Timothy J. Kehoe; Xing Xu |
| Abstract: | In the late 1980s, Mexico opened itself to international trade and foreign investment, followed in the early 1990s by China. China and Mexico are still the two countries characterized as middle-income by the World Bank with the highest levels of merchandise exports. Although their measures of openness have been comparable, these two countries have had sharply different economic performances: China has achieved spectacular growth, whereas Mexico’s growth has been disappointingly modest. In this article, we extend the analysis of Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to account for the differences in these experiences. We show that China opened its economy while it was still achieving rapid growth from shifting employment out of agriculture and into manufacturing while Mexico opened long after its comparable phase of structural transformation. China is only now catching up with Mexico in terms of GDP per working-age person, and it still lags behind in terms of the fraction of its population engaged in agriculture. Furthermore, we argue that China has been able to move up a ladder of quality and technological sophistication in the composition of its exports and production, while Mexico seems to be stuck exporting a fixed set of products to its North American neighbors. |
| JEL: | F43 O32 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34181 |
| By: | Rudolf Rudy?ar (Prague University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The Japanese yen-funded carry trade ? borrowing at Japan?s ultra-low interest rates to invest in higher-yield assets abroad ? has grown extensively in recent years, raising concerns about its potential unwinding. This paper examines the risk of a disorderly unwind of yen carry trades and the consequent impact on equity and bond markets, with a focus on U.S. equities. We synthesize insights from academic literature and central bank reports, and we deploy simulation models (VAR, Monte Carlo, and regression-based analyses) to explore scenario outcomes. Our analysis suggests that a sharp yen appreciation (triggered by either Japanese policy tightening or U.S. rate cuts) could force carry traders to liquidate positions, causing significant volatility in stock markets and a spike in risk aversion. Through scenario analysis, we find that the severity of market impact depends on the speed and scale of unwinding ? ranging from a mild normalization with limited market effects to a severe, rapid unwind that could resemble past crisis episodes. The results highlight the importance of monitoring carry trade-funded flows and ensuring market resilience to sudden reversals. |
| Keywords: | Yen carry trade; Carry trade unwind; Equity markets; Bond markets; Interest rate differentials;Vector autoregression; Monte Carlo simulation; Safe-haven currency; Risk aversion; Capital flows |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15116864 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Takara Sakai; Daisuke Murakami; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | While tourism is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic and urban transformation, its effects on land prices remain contested. This study examines tourism and land prices using a panel of 1, 724 Japanese municipalities from 2021 to 2024, with annual tourist arrivals as a proxy for tourism activity. Using mediation analysis and panel threshold regression, we show that sizable land price increases are concentrated in a small group of "superstar" cities, specifically those in the top 5.9 percent for tourist arrivals, while most municipalities experience little or no effect. The results highlight pronounced nonlinearities and spatial heterogeneity in tourism's economic impact across Japan. The potential mechanisms linking tourism to land price growth are mixed, with possible benefits for local residents as well as risks of increased burdens. These findings underscore the need for policies that promote inclusive growth and an equitable distribution of tourism-related gains. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04307 |
| By: | Andlib, Zubaria |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effectiveness of a digital financial literacy intervention aimed at improving financial knowledge, confidence, and behaviour among rural women in Pakistan. Using a randomized controlled trial conducted in two selected villages in the Rawalpindi district, women were assigned to receive digital financial literacy training either individually or jointly with a male household member. The intervention, delivered in person and via mobile phones, focused on core topics including budgeting, saving, and secure digital transactions. The training substantially improved women's financial knowledge, digital confidence, and self-efficacy. The intervention also increased the use of mobile wallets, greater engagement with formal savings mechanisms, and encouraged more consistent budgeting practices. When male household members participated alongside women, the intervention further enhanced women's financial autonomy and promoted more active joint decision-making over household finances. These findings demonstrate the potential of contextually grounded digital interventions to expand women's financial inclusion and highlight the value of household engagement in reinforcing women's economic agency. |
| Keywords: | Digital Financial Literacy, Financial Inclusion, Women's Empowerment, Behavioral Interventions, Randomized Controlled Trial |
| JEL: | C93 D14 O16 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1656 |
| By: | Sajid Anwar; Sizhong Sun |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how adverse supply-side shocks in domestic input markets influence firms' vertical outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decisions. While the theoretical basis for cost-driven OFDI is well established, empirical evidence on the causal mechanisms remains limited. We develop a framework in which input cost shocks raise unit production costs, but firms undertake vertical OFDI only when shocks are sufficiently severe or when baseline costs are already high. Firm heterogeneity leads to a sorting pattern, whereby more productive firms are more likely to invest abroad. To test this mechanism, we exploit China's 2017 waste paper import ban as an exogenous shock and leverage a distinctive feature of the paper product industry's supply chain. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and firm-level data from 2000 to 2023, we find that the policy shock increased the probability of vertical OFDI by approximately 16% in the post-policy period relative to a control group. These results provide robust evidence that firms respond to domestic input shocks by reallocating production across borders, highlighting vertical OFDI as a strategic response to supply-side disruptions. The findings contribute to understanding the micro-foundations of global production decisions in the face of input market volatility. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.21291 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Aashish Chaudhry; Trishali Khanna; Latika Khatwani; Pallavi Verma |
| Abstract: | This policy brief highlights the role that the Ministry of Women and Child Development (MoWCD) can play in leading the nation towards “Vitamin D Kuposhan Mukt Bharat”. One of the core mandates of the Ministry of Women and Child Development (MoWCD) is to address malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency. Among these, Vitamin D deficiency is one of the most widespread. This policy brief presents six key action points for the MoWCD that include, a) how to build awareness on self-identification and actions to mitigate the deficiency b) areas for capacity building and training c) developing multi-stakeholders partnerships to address the deficiency d) working with Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) and other government bodies to make Vitamin D fortified food available through public distribution programmes, and e) leveraging Mission POSHAN 2.0 to address Vitamin D deficiency. |
| Keywords: | Vitamin D, public health, India, healthcare policy, rickets, bone, micronutrient, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:43 |
| By: | Bi-Huei Tsai (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University); Pei-Pei Wang (National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University) |
| Abstract: | This study finds that the U.S. sanctions on Chinese semiconductors result in significantly negative abnormal returns for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, including the upstream IC design sector and the midstream manufacturing sector. The U.S. sanctions enable investors to expect the difficulty of Taiwan?s IC design industry in obtaining orders from Chinese companies. Investors sell the stock of Taiwan?s IC design industry, so the stock prices of Taiwan?s IC design industry decline substantially. Negative abnormal returns are generated during the announcement of U.S exports bans to China. The impact of U.S. sanctions on Chinese semiconductors is obviously more significant on Taiwan's upstream IC design industry than on the midstream manufacturing and downstream packaging and testing industries. Conversely, the gap between IC manufacturing and packaging industries is small. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductor; Event Study; Stock Prices; Sanctions; Abnormal Return |
| JEL: | G18 E44 F13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15116739 |
| By: | Keiichiro HONDA; Takuya KAWANISHI; Yusuke ADACHI |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the impact of increasing export activity of firms in regional cities on local businesses. National and local governments implement various policies to support firms and attract investment, aiming to promote exports and increase foreign direct investment (FDI) in Japan. While some firms have successfully expanded their markets, many local businesses remain unglobalized, limiting their growth. However, when firms expand through exports or FDI, they may form supply chains with local businesses, generating positive spillover effects on the regional economy. If such effects are confirmed, export promotion and FDI attraction policies could be even more effective than expected. Using microdata from Japanese manufacturing establishments aggregated at the municipality level, this study investigates the spillover effects of an increase in exporting establishments or export value on non-exporting establishments in the same municipality, focusing on their sales, employment, and wages per worker. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25019 |
| By: | Yufei Sun (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the profitability and robustness of pairs trading strategies based on non-parametric technical chart constructions—Renko and Kagi—across the U.S. and Chinese equity markets. Within a market-neutral, mean-reversion framework, the study examines strategy performance under varying market regimes, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 period. Using historical data from indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI series, pairs are selected via statistical patterns in Renko and Kagi charts. Robustness checks consider varying trading horizons, the number of pairs, and transaction costs. Results show that both chart-based strategies generate significant excess returns and exhibit strong Sharpe ratios before costs. While trading frictions reduce profitability, Renko-based strategies remain resilient, especially during crises. The findings highlight that adaptive and non-parametric charting methods can effectively capture transient mispricings and provide viable alternatives for statistical arbitrage in turbulent markets. |
| Keywords: | Pairs trading; Quantitative strategies; Statistical arbitrage; Kagi Chart; Renko Chart; H-Strategy |
| JEL: | C22 C63 G11 G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-20 |
| By: | Naoto Tanemoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Hinami Takai (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Tomomi Miyazaki (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the nonlinear effects of public capital in Japan by using a panel threshold regression method. First, our empirical results confirm the threshold effects of public capital productivity in Japan. Second, we demonstrate that rural regions gradually become low productivity regions over time. These results imply that the consideration of threshold effects is essential for understanding nonlinearities in the level of public capital and its economic effects in Japan. JEL Classification: E24, E62, H30 |
| Keywords: | Public capital, nonlinearity, panel threshold regression |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Vernekar, Nisha; Singhal, Karan |
| Abstract: | Female labor force participation (FLFP) in India has remained stubbornly low, defying the expectation that women’s employment would rise alongside economic growth. While supply-side constraints such as gendered norms and care responsibilities are well documented, the role of demand-side institutional barriers has received less empirical attention. We study whether removal of one such barrier - legal prohibitions on employing women in night shifts - improved female employment outcomes. We exploit exogenous variation in the timing of state-wise reforms in service sector labour laws in India between 2016 and 2024 to employ a staggered difference-in-differences design. We find that women in treated states increased time allocated to night hours, while overall hours worked declined, possibly toward more flexible or better-compensated shifts. We also find evidence of increased formalization among women in more organized firms and higher socioeconomic groups, consistent with bargaining responses to improved legal rights. The effects of lifting gendered legal barriers appear strongest where employers are willing to hire, infrastructure supports mobility, and women have bargaining power, while in more precarious settings, gains are limited. In India’s heterogeneous and often informal services sector, such reforms can shift employment patterns, but their reach and quality may depend on complementary institutional and infrastructural support. |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajt:wcinch:84236 |
| By: | Kaoru HOSONO; Masaki HOTEI |
| Abstract: | Expanding the coverage of employees’ social insurance leads to higher social insurance premiums paid by firms, potentially affecting employment and firm revenue. We examine these effects using the reform of Japan’s social insurance in 2016, which extended the social insurance coverage of part-time workers from those working at least 30 hours per week to those working 20 hours or more per week, as a quasi-natural experiment. Employing a difference-in-differences approach in which we compare firms with a higher share of part-time workers in the pre-reform year and those with a lower share, we obtain the following findings. First, firms substituted significant amounts of part-time workers with regular workers, but not with capital. Second, total labor costs including social insurance premiums paid by firms increased. Third, firms saw a significant increase in sales revenues but a reduction in profit ratios, suggesting that the increased labor costs were primarily absorbed by firms and buyers due to a partial pass-through of labor costs to output prices. Fourth, high-growth firms were more likely to substitute part-time workers with regular workers and to pass the higher labor costs through to output prices. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25080 |
| By: | liu, kerry |
| Abstract: | The rapid development of Chinese automotive, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, have garnered global attention. This study focuses on a niche area that has yet to be thoroughly examined: automotive finance. First, it explores the evolution of automotive finance in China within the context of the broader automotive market. Second, it reviews key policy initiatives from Chinese authorities related to the automotive industry, automotive finance companies, and automotive consumption. Third, it analyzes recent regulations on automotive finance companies, concluding that these measures are designed to mitigate systemic risks within China's financial system while supporting the new energy vehicle sector. |
| Date: | 2025–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:py648_v1 |
| By: | Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger |
| Abstract: | Geographical Indication (GI) is a rising policy in developing countries, which has been relatively neglected in the existing literature. This article studies Chinese agricultural GIs and its impact on firms’ exports. By relating newly authorized GIs with firm‐product‐location‐destination level customs trade data according to GIs’ geographical coverage and product type, we estimate the impact of these new GIs on firm's exports. Importantly, we can distinguish GIs with and without quality supervision. For the latter we find negative impacts on export quality, which is not the case for GIs with quality supervision. We interpret this in the context of our theoretical framework as evidence for quality free‐riding, where individual firms have an incentive to lower the quality of the export product. We show that this negative effect is less, the more concentrated an industry is or the more GIs there are for a particular product. Furthermore, our results suggest that the China‐EU agreement on Geographical Indications may play the role of quality supervision and prevent the possibility of free‐riding. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Geographical Indications, China, export quality, free-riding |
| JEL: | F10 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:323987 |
| By: | Nisha Taneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Snajana Joshi; Vasudha Upreti; Nirlipta Rath |
| Abstract: | The trajectory of India-China economic engagement, rooted in a legacy of complex geopolitical ties and asymmetrical economic relations, now stands at a critical juncture amid a changing global order. In this context, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit carries considerable strategic significance. The thaw in India-China relations offers a timely opportunity to address existing economic imbalances to foster a more balanced engagement along with reducing external vulnerabilities. Amid these shifting global realities, this policy brief explores three key questions: (i) How can India enhance and diversify its exports to China? (ii) What strategies can reduce its import dependence on China? and (iii) How can Chinese FDI be increased with appropriate guardrails? Drawing on an analysis of export trends and untapped potential, patterns of import dependence, and the evolving trajectory of Chinese investment in India, the policy brief identifies policy pathways to enhance export competitiveness, reduce vulnerabilities from concentrated imports, and channel FDI with appropriate guardrails strategies. It also emphasises the need for stronger institutional mechanisms to address non-tariff barriers and product standards. Together, these measures aim to foster a more balanced, secure, and resilient economic partnership between India and China. |
| Keywords: | India Exports, US Tariff Shock, Sectoral Impact, Market Diversification, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:45 |
| By: | Lian, Jr-Jiun |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Taiwan has been consistently targeted by cognitive warfare launched by China, using tactics that demonstrate a level of complexity beyond traditional academic definitions. This paper examines cognitive warfare through a multi-modal framework, integrating the concept of horizontal dissemination from political communication theory to expand scholarly understanding of these strategies. It also asserts that since cognitive warfare includes “malicious socio-disruptive technologies, ” such tactics should not be categorized under the rights protected by free speech. This study extensively examines the theoretical and practical frameworks for countering cognitive warfare, focusing on three primary concerns: first, the clarification of the multi-modal cognitive warfare framework; second, analyses of cognitive warfare from both theoretical and practical perspectives; and third, proposing possible response strategies rooted in Taiwan’s democratic resilience. Keywords: horizontal transmission, democratic resilience, multidimensional linguistic analysis, multimodal framework, political communication, cognitive warfare |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xj63k_v1 |
| By: | Kazuki Onji (The University of Osaka); Roger H. Gordon (University of California, San Diego); Tue Gørgens (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | In assessing the influence of taxes on corporate takeovers, sorting among firms poses complications. We employ a recently developed matching model that explicitly accounts for sorting behaviors, applying it for the first time to analyze tax implications in corporate takeover markets. Examining Japanese M&A transactions (1999–2018) between publiclytraded corporations, our estimates reveal heterogeneous effects, where the role of acquirer information and control perceptibly moderates the value of loss carryforwards across different transaction types. However, the estimated value generated from loss carryforwards is modest, indicating the stringency of Japan’s anti-avoidance rules. |
| Keywords: | Corporate tax, corporate reorganization, M&As, matching estimator |
| JEL: | H25 H32 G34 L20 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2510 |
| By: | Tanu M. Goyal (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Cledwyn Fernandez; Shravani Prakash; Anjhana Ramesh |
| Abstract: | This policy brief is based on a Roundtable Conversation hosted by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) to foster dialogue on women's participation in the manufacturing sector workforce. Held under the ongoing Economic Policies for Women-led Development (EPWD) programme, the roundtable informed the brief's analysis of current trends and future opportunities for enhancing female employment in India's manufacturing industry. It highlights the underlying causes of the persistent gender gap in the formal sector and applies a gender perspective to assess sectoral and regional labour market differences. Drawing on stakeholder inputs from the roundtable and insights from field visits to both large and small manufacturing units, the brief offers targeted policy recommendations to increase women's participation by addressing challenges at the sector, firm, and regional levels. It provides a practical roadmap for policymakers, businesses, and civil society to advance gender diversity in the manufacturing ecosystem. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing, gender, women, workforce, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:41 |
| By: | Youngjin Hong; In Kyung Kim; Kyoo il Kim |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the extent to which a favorable view of a firm, shaped by its social contributions, influences consumer choices and firm sales. Using a favorability rating that reflects media exposure of each firm's corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities in the Korean instant noodles market during the 2010s, we find evidence that improvements in the corporate image of Ottogi - one of the country's largest instant noodle producers - positively affected consumer utility for the firm's products. Notably, Ottogi's annual sales of its major brands increased by an average of 23.7 million packages, or 6.7%, as a result of CSR activities and the associated rise in consumer favorability. This effect is comparable in magnitude to that of a nearly 60% increase in advertising spending. Our findings suggest that CSR can foster firm growth by boosting product sales. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.05782 |
| By: | Ko Adachi (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kato (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the second-round effect of raw material price increases using a DSGE model. Specifically, it explores how price increases driven by rising raw material costs spill over into wages, which then feed back into prices. The analysis focuses on Japan and Europe, which share similar structures in terms of raw material inputs. The results show that the first-round effect, which captures the pass-through of rising raw material costs to prices, is slower in Japan than in Europe. On the other hand, the second-round effect through wages is gradual but persistent in both Japan and Europe. Furthermore, during the period of high inflation since 2020, the first-round effect of higher raw material costs was the main driver of inflation in both Japan and Europe, while the second-round effect contributed to the persistence of inflation. The paper also suggests that the recent changes in wage rigidity in Japan may have strengthened the second-round effect. |
| Keywords: | Wages; Prices; Second-Round Effects; DSGE Model |
| JEL: | E17 E31 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e10 |
| By: | Davide Luparello |
| Abstract: | Are temporary workers subject to different wage markdowns than permanent workers? This paper examines productivity, output markups, and wage markdowns in India's automotive sector during 2000--2020. I develop a model integrating CES production, nested logit labor supply, and differentiated labor market conduct: Nash-Bertrand wage setting for temporary workers versus Nash bargaining for unionized permanent workers. Results reveal declining output markups as marginal costs outpace prices through productivity deceleration. Rising labor-augmenting productivity cannot offset declining Hicks-neutral productivity, reducing overall TFP. Labor market power substantially compresses worker compensation: wage markdowns persist at 40% for temporary workers and 10% for permanent workers. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.08222 |
| By: | Bairy, Gaurav Gopal; Raj, Prateek; Yayavaram, Sai |
| Abstract: | Productivity spillovers between firms are frequently viewed as an important source of firm productivity enhancement. In this study, we focus on vertically linked inter-industry spillovers and examine their two key characteristics: asymmetry between forward (upstream) and backward (downstream) spillovers and heterogeneity among firms in leveraging such spillovers. We estimate productivity of Indian firms using firm-level data and use Input-Output tables to identify vertical linkages at the industry level. Our findings show that productivity spillovers from upstream industries benefit all firms whereas spillovers from downstream industries primarily benefit productive firms. Furthermore, the impact of forward spillovers is higher for firms operating in less competitive industries and lower for foreign firms. These heterogeneous spillover effects are likely to slow convergence in firm productivity, providing additional justification for the persistence of firm-level differences in productivity levels. |
| Keywords: | productivity spillovers, vertical linkages, firm heterogeneity, industry competition, firm ownership |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:324651 |
| By: | Saon Ray (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Vasundhara Thakur |
| Abstract: | The urgent need to address climate change has placed environmental degradation and sustainable development at the centre of policy discussions. This highlights the importance of examining how the financial system directs funds toward green investments or emission-intensive industries. Expanding financial inclusion integrates more individuals into the formal financial system, influencing capital allocation. India has introduced several initiatives in recent years to enhance financial inclusion. In this context, this study explores the impact of financial inclusion on carbon emissions in India from 1990 to 2018. It also examines the interplay of financial inclusion and financial development on carbon emissions in India. The study uses the ARDL bounds testing approach to find a long-run relationship between financial inclusion and carbon emissions. However, the interaction between financial inclusion and financial development does not significantly impact emissions in the long run. These findings contribute to understanding the role of financial inclusion in shaping India's environmental trajectory. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, carbon emissions, financial development, banking, green finance, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:427 |
| By: | Prajol Joshi (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Madhu Marasini (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment) |
| Abstract: | The accelerating climate crisis and associated socio-economic losses have intensified the global pursuit of clean energy solutions. Green hydrogen—produced via electrolysis using renewable sources like hydro, wind, or solar—has emerged as a promising alternative, enabling energy storage and decarbonization of hard-to-electrify sectors. Nepal has expanded its hydropower sector significantly, aiming to generate 28, 500 MW of electricity by 2035. Globally, initiatives like the UN’s Green Hydrogen Catapult, EU and Japan’s strategies, and national roadmaps in India, Sri Lanka, and China highlight growing momentum. Nepal has also advanced through its 2023 Green Hydrogen Policy, tax incentives, and Koshi Province’s fertilizer plant initiative. However, challenges remain, including high production costs, infrastructure gaps, regulatory shortcomings, and safety concerns. Moving forward, Nepal must strengthen its regulatory framework, offer greater technical and financial support to the private sector, and explore innovative financing to scale green hydrogen adoption. |
| Keywords: | green hydrogen, energy transition, hydrogen economy, energy security, climate change, sustainability, decarbonization |
| JEL: | Q42 Q56 L52 O13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:rpaper:rp/25/01 |
| By: | Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu; Axel Aquila Briliandiva; Agung Setiawan; Atin Prihatin; Dyah Larasati; Fajar Agung Wahono; Hafiz Arfyanto; Affandi Ismail; Lia Amelia; Nina Toyamah; Ruhmaniyati; Asep Suryahadi |
| Keywords: | social assistance, welfare, poverty, impact evaluation, elderly |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4352 |
| By: | Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu; Axel Aquila Briliandiva; Agung Setiawan; Atin Prihatin; Dyah Larasati; Fajar Agung Wahono; Hafiz Arfyanto; Affandi Ismail; Lia Amelia; Nina Toyamah; Ruhmaniyati; Asep Suryahadi |
| Keywords: | bantuan sosial, kesejahteraan, kemiskinan, evaluasi dampak, lansia |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4343 |
| By: | UNICEF Indonesia; Kementerian Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional Republik Indonesia / Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional; The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | deprivasi komunitas, kemiskinan anak, anak prasejahtera, Ketimpangan, keterbelakangan pembangunan |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4362 |
| By: | TNP2K; The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | elderly livelihood, elderly welfare, special assistance for the elderly |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4356 |
| By: | UNICEF Indonesia; Ministry of National Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia; The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | community deprivation, child poverty, disadvantaged children, inequality, underdevelopment |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4361 |
| By: | TNP2K; The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | penghidupan lansia, kesejahteraan lansia, bantuan khusus lansia |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:4353 |