|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Shinichiro IWATA; Keisuke KONDO |
| Abstract: | The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) presented the government with the difficult challenge of balancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 infections with socioeconomic activity. In the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, when vaccines and treatments were not yet available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restrictions on movement and crowd control, were imperative to halt the spread of the COVID-19 infections. However, NPIs aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus by reducing interpersonal contact substantially influenced socioeconomic activity. Using monthly panel data from Japanese retail establishments from January 2019 to December 2021, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of NPIs on retail performance by analyzing human flow around establishments. The analysis revealed a robust correlation between changes in the human flow in the surrounding area and changes in retail sales including before the COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, this study found that NPIs temporarily increased this relationship, suggesting that lower human mobility due to NPIs decreases retail sales. Interestingly, the study also found that the effectiveness of NPIs decreased with each intervention. The first state of emergency declaration in 2020 had the largest impact through human mobility. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25073 |
| By: | Bian, Alice; Dikau, Simon; Miller, Hugh; Pierfederici, Roberta; Stern, Nicholas; Ward, Bob |
| Abstract: | As the world’s largest trading nation, China holds a dominant position in global green manufacturing, particularly through the development of the so-called ‘new three’ clean energy technologies – that is, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels. There are tremendous opportunities for emerging markets and developing countries to improve their integration into global supply chains for clean energy technologies by leveraging intra-regional trade that boosts their manufacturing competitiveness and exports of higher-value-added products. This policy insight seeks to evaluate China’s role in supply chains for renewable energy technologies, and how the country can support the energy transition in other countries, particularly those in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; Asia; Association of Southeast Asian Nations; batteries; Belt and Road Initiative; China; China ETS; clean energy; climate finance; electric vehicles; international agreement; international climate finance; Just Energy Transition Partnerships; manufacturing; net zero transition plan; regional comprehensive economic partnership; South-east Asia; supply chains; transition-critical materials |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129230 |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf; Martin D. Siyaranamual; Andy Sumner |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of education expansion on structural transformation and income inequality in Indonesia, contextualized within the Kuznetsian framework of economic development. Using a natural policy experiment from the 1978-1979 extension of the school year, we apply a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to establish the causal relationship between increased education and labour shifts from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Structural transformation, Inequality, Indonesia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-50 |
| By: | Junianto James Losari |
| Abstract: | The rise in geopolitical tensions and economic nationalism has contributed to a global shift from a relatively liberal economic order toward a more protectionist regime. Amongst the tools increasingly used by governments are local content requirements (LCRs). Indonesia – recently ranked as the most protectionist country in the 2025 International Trade Barrier Index – has relied heavily on LCRs over the past decade to shield domestic industries and advance along global value chains. These measures are becoming more prevalent, particularly in sectors designated as strategic by the Indonesian government, including mining, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, and, more recently, the automotive sector (especially electric vehicles). However, the proliferation of LCRs raises concerns about Indonesia’s compliance with its obligations under international trade and investment agreements, including World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and various bilateral and regional treaties. This discussion paper analyses Indonesia’s LCR policies through the lens of international trade and investment law, assessing their consistency with national treatment obligations, prohibitions on performance requirements, and restrictions on subsidies. While certain LCRs may fall under permissible exceptions – such as those related to government procurement – others may be vulnerable to legal challenge. The paper concludes by offering recommendations for the Indonesian government to reassess and recalibrate its LCR policies, with a view to minimising legal risks and avoiding potential trade and investment disputes. |
| Keywords: | local content requirements; LCRs; economic nationalism; WTO law; performance requirements; trade agreement; international investment agreement; Indonesia; trade protectionism; industrial policy |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F53 K33 O25 |
| Date: | 2025–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-04 |
| By: | Masaki Umejima (Convener of Development Plan, IEC System Committee Smart Energy); Jun Murai (Senior Advanced Research Project Professor, Cyber Civilization Research Center, Keio University (CCRC), Japan); Naoto Okura (Director General for Research and Policy Design, ERIA) |
| Abstract: | Rapid economic growth in Southeast Asia has significantly increased energy demand amidst a rapidly evolving global energy landscape, characterised by a growing reliance on distributed energy resources (DERs) and distributed energy systems (DESs). The Energy Resource Aggregation Business (ERAB) has emerged as a vital approach for managing and optimising these resources through open-standard interfaces and Internet-based architectures, underpinned by open, autonomous, distributed, and globally governed systems. However, most organisations today face considerable challenges due to the rapid proliferation of potentially vulnerable DERs and DESs. Consequently, ERAB systems – comprising DERs and DESs – must be designed to securely isolate network components while minimising impacts on the broader network, consumers, and business partners in the event of a breach. The authors, convened under the ERIA study group, conclude that in addition to the critical role of standardising hardware and software security protocols, the three-layer, six-element model of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Cyber/Physical Security Framework (CPSF) is highly applicable to ERAB security design. This model supports the configuration of DERs according to international standards within the global supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Technological Change; Open Innovation |
| JEL: | O36 |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-05 |
| By: | Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf |
| Abstract: | Structural change is the contraction of agriculture as a share of both aggregate economic output and employment and the corresponding expansion of the combined shares of industry and services. First, we describe this process in the context of Thailand, a country experiencing significant structural change in recent decades. Second, we analyse its causes using a simple, comparative static computable general equilibrium model of the Thai economy, operated in long-run mode. We test the explanatory power of three hypotheses about the causes of structural change: differences in the growth rates of aggregate factor supplies (the Rybczynski effect; sectoral differences in total factor productivity growth; and the differences between commodities in expenditure elasticities of demand (Engel’s law). The first two hypotheses operate on the supplyside of the economy, implying changes in the shape of the production possibility frontier (PPF). The third, a demand-side effect, implies changes in output prices during growth that induce movements around the PPF. The results indicate that the first two explanators predict the observed structural change accurately, but that the third, Engel’s law, predicts poorly. Third, we use the above framework to study the impacts these drivers of structural change have on the functional distribution of incomes. The results show that the explanators of structural change do not predict the observed changes in factor income shares. We conclude that these two phenomena have different drivers and that stable empirical relationships between them should not be expected. |
| JEL: | O11 C60 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-06 |
| By: | Keisuke KONDO; Toshihiro OKUBO |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the Japanese leisure industry, including golf, bowling, and amusement and theme parks, to empirically evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business performance. Given the necessity for interpersonal interaction in the leisure industry, the restrictions on outings due to the COVID-19 outbreaks had a considerable impact on business operations. The novelty of this study lies in its integration of establishment-level microdata with geocoded location information and human mobility data collected as big data, to assess the impact of surrounding locations on business performance before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Using establishment-level monthly panel data from January 2019 to December 2021, this study finds the direct negative effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on business performance. Interestingly, the COVID-19 pandemic led to structural changes in the relationship between business performance and weekday outings, suggesting behavioral changes in leisure activities. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25074 |
| By: | Ke Wang; Dongmin Yao; Xin Ye; Mingyang Pei |
| Abstract: | While ride-hailing services offer increased travel flexibility and convenience, persistent nighttime safety concerns significantly reduce women's willingness to use them. Existing research often treats women as a homogeneous group, neglecting the heterogeneity in their decision-making processes. To address this gap, this study develops the Latent Class Integrated Choice and Latent Variable (LC-ICLV) model with a mixed Logit kernel, combined with an ordered Probit model for attitudinal indicators, to capture unobserved heterogeneity in women's nighttime ride-hailing decisions. Based on panel data from 543 respondents across 29 provinces in China, the analysis identifies two distinct female subgroups. The first, labeled the "Attribute-Sensitive Group", consists mainly of young women and students from first- and second-tier cities. Their choices are primarily influenced by observable service attributes such as price and waiting time, but they exhibit reduced usage intention when matched with female drivers, possibly reflecting deeper safety heuristics. The second, the "Perception-Sensitive Group", includes older working women and residents of less urbanized areas. Their decisions are shaped by perceived risk and safety concerns; notably, high-frequency use or essential nighttime commuting needs may reinforce rather than alleviate avoidance behaviors. The findings underscore the need for differentiated strategies: platforms should tailor safety features and user interfaces by subgroup, policymakers must develop targeted interventions, and female users can benefit from more personalized risk mitigation strategies. This study offers empirical evidence to advance gender-responsive mobility policy and improve the inclusivity of ride-hailing services in urban nighttime contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.10951 |
| By: | Keisuke KONDO; Toshihiro OKUBO |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on “Location Rationalization Plans, †which is one of the place-based policies initiated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. In accordance with the “Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction, †which took effect in August 2014, each local government is diligently engaged in formulating “Location Normalization Plans†to propel compact community development in preparation for a future society grappling with a declining population. As of March 31, 2024, 568 local governments had successfully formulated and published their plans. However, the formulation of plans remains in progress in some local governments. Reasons for the inability of some municipalities to formulate their plans early, while others are still in the process of doing so, have not yet been fully clarified. This study aims to elucidate which local governments have successfully completed their urban planning in a timely manner. Creating an original municipal dataset, this study finds that learning and spillovers are factors that contribute to the policy-making process. Specifically, learning exerts a substantial influence on the decision-making process regarding initiation and the swift development of analogous ongoing policies. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25078 |
| By: | Wan, Lu; Zhou, Yanxi; Wang, Ying; Zhao, Tiantian |
| Abstract: | Following the “dual carbon” goals in 2021, which emphasize achieving the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060, China introduced a “dual circulation” strategy to connect domestic and international trade. Leveraging the quantile regression model, this study examines the impact of green total factor productivity, trade penetration, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance on carbon emissions (CO2). Furthermore, a mediating model is established from another perspective to discover the mechanism, respectively, testing how trade, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance affect carbon emissions via green total factor productivity. The findings indicate that green total factor productivity exerts an inverted “U-shaped” effect on carbon emissions within a certain threshold of the total CO2 volume. While the relationship between the green total factor productivity and CO2 becomes a significant “U-shaped” when the total CO2 goes beyond a certain level. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment penetration and sustainable finance contribute positively to carbon emissions reduction, whereas trade penetration notably increases carbon emissions. Transition mechanisms with international cooperation, trade penetration, foreign direct investment penetration, and sustainable finance also affect CO2 through the green total factor productivity channel. As suggested, China should tailor its low-carbon transition strategies, drawing on global insights and considering its unique national development. Broadly, efficiency in the production process and low-carbon transition are preferred (i.e. improved green total factor productivity), which will balance economic development and environmental protection. The adoption and promotion of a consistent framework for sustainable finance are crucial, as they help enterprises in developing countries access more global sustainable finance. This study also notes that participating more in international trade that embodies low-carbon concepts and introducing green foreign direct investment helps developing countries improve resource efficiency and productivity. |
| Keywords: | carbon peak; correlation; green total factor productivity; sustainable finance; trade penetration |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129148 |
| By: | Hyeongwoo Kim; Madeline H. Kim; Divya Sadana; Peng Shao; Jie Zhang |
| Abstract: | Donald Trump argued that the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was a "horrible deal, " pointing to a substantial increase in the U.S. trade deficit with Korea following the agreement's implementation in March 2012. Notably, during the same period, the U.S. trade balance with numerous other major trading partners, none of which maintained an FTA with the United States, also deteriorated, raising doubts as to whether the KORUS FTA was the primary cause of the observed imbalance. This study evaluates the causal effect of the KORUS FTA on the U.S.–Korea trade balance using a difference-in-differences framework, complemented by event-study and synthetic control analyses as robustness checks. The empirical findings, after accounting for business cycle fluctuations, provide overall support for Trump's assertion. |
| Keywords: | KORUS FTA; Trade Deficit; Difference-in-Differences; Causal Effect; Event Study; Synthetic Control Analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-05 |
| By: | Cai, Huan (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China); Dong, Lu (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China); Xie, Jian (College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines gender disparities in parenting in the digital domain, using a novel dataset that records the gender composition of users across more than 6, 000 app-level observations in China. Two patterns stand out. First, parenting apps are strongly feminized: women account for nearly two-thirds of users, compared to fewer than half for the typical non-parenting app. Second, the female share is highest in cities where women enjoy greater income and educational attainment, and lowest in areas marked by more entrenched gender inequality. The women most engaged in digital caregiving are therefore those best positioned to transcend traditional roles. Mechanism analysis suggests that this is not driven by broader digital fluency among affluent women, but rather reflects their intentional choice for intensive parenting practices. |
| Keywords: | Gender Inequality, Digital Technology, Parenting, Unpaid labor, China JEL Classification: J13, J16, O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:765 |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A. (Stanford University); Kang, Le (Nanjing University); Li, Xueying (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Zhang, Lei (Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | The changing pattern of quality in China’s rural schools across time and province is extracted from the differential labor market earnings of rural migrant workers. Variations in rates of return to years of schooling across migrant workers working in the same urban labor market but having different sites of basic education provide for direct estimation of provincial school quality. Corroborating this approach, these school quality estimates prove to be highly correlated with provincial cognitive skill test scores for the same demographic group. Returns to quality increase with economic development level of destination cities. Importantly, quality appears higher and provincial variation appears lower for younger cohorts, indicating at least partial effectiveness of more recent policies aimed at improving rural school quality across provinces. Surprisingly, however, provincial variations in quality are uncorrelated with teacher-student ratio or per student spending. |
| Keywords: | migration, school quality, China |
| JEL: | I25 J6 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18030 |
| By: | Pinjaman, Saizal |
| Abstract: | This paper synthesizes a review of the Malaysian housing market to identify its primary drivers, evaluate the effectiveness of its policy toolkit, and propose avenues for future research. Analysis of demand-side factors shows that real activity, income growth, and monetary conditions are key short-run drivers, while the exchange rate emerges as a particularly strong long-run influence due to imported input costs and its signaling of global financial conditions. The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential tools in mitigating credit-driven risks is also highlighted. On the supply side, localized overhang and limited developable land in urban nodes are identified as key challenges. The paper argues that effective policy requires strong coordination between demand-side management and structural supply reforms, with an emphasis on a risk-based approach to financial surveillance. It concludes by proposing high-value research, including state-level panel analysis, the use of satellite imagery to measure supply elasticity, microdata analysis of borrower behavior, and the development of a "house prices at risk" model to enhance policy calibration and communication. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Determinants, House Prices, Article Review |
| JEL: | R31 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:324001 |
| By: | Yini Liu (UWO - University of Western Ontario); Di Lu (SZU - Shenzhen University [Shenzhen] = 深圳大学, Audencia Business School); Suhua Tian (Fudan University [Shanghai]) |
| Abstract: | Abstract In this article, we investigate how the participation of firms' existing shareholders affects the pricing and valuation of private investments in public equity (PIPEs). Using a large sample of PIPEs issued by Chinese listed firms from 2006 to 2019, we find that the effective discount and long‐term buy‐and‐hold abnormal stock returns of PIPEs with existing shareholder participation are significantly higher than those with only new investor participation, after controlling for heterogeneous types of PIPE investors. However, the superior post‐PIPE stock performance of deals with existing shareholders is not driven by improved operating performance but by tunneling activities such as frequent dividend announcements, related‐party transactions, and positive earnings management during the lock‐up period. Our findings suggest that the effect of existing shareholders' participation in private equity placements is more consistent with the tunneling hypothesis than the certification hypothesis. We document that the tunneling incentives are stronger when firms face greater financial constraints and can be mitigated when the firm's corporate governance is stronger. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the participation of firms' existing shareholders affects the pricing and valuation of private investments in public equity (PIPEs). Using a large sample of PIPEs issued by Chinese listed firms from 2006 to 2019, we find that the effective discount and long-term buy-and-hold abnormal stock returns of PIPEs participated by existing shareholders are significantly higher than those participated only by new investors, after controlling heterogeneous types of PIPE investors. However, the superior post-PIPE stock performance of deals with existing shareholders is not driven by improved operating performance but tunneling activities such as frequent dividend announcements, related-party transactions, and positive earnings management during the lock-up period. Our findings suggest that the effect of existing shareholders presence in private equity placements is more consistent with the "Tunneling Hypothesis" than the "Certification Hypothesis". We document that the tunneling incentives are stronger when firms face greater financial constraints and can be mitigated when the firm's corporate governance is stronger. |
| Keywords: | Existing shareholder, Private equity placement, Tunneling effect, Corporate governance, Private equity placements, PIPEs, Existing shareholders, Pricing and valuation effects, Tunneling incentives |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05133550 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Huang, Hanwei; Pisch, Frank; Singh, Tejendra Pratap |
| Abstract: | Although the environmental impact of trade has been a long-standing concern, there is still only scant evidence on the channels through which international market access affects pollution. In this paper, we exploit the unique episode of China's world market integration in the early 2000s to provide direct empirical evidence on three such mechanisms. We combine granular satellite data on air pollution with detailed information on manufacturing firms and coal power plants, and leverage exogenous foreign demand shocks for identification. Three main findings emerge: exporting firms reduce local pollution (scope-1); pollution levels around coal power plants rise due to regional export shocks (scope-2); and upstream suppliers reduce pollution in the face of export demand shocks to downstream firms (scope-3). Our findings point to China's reliance on coal power plants to fuel its export-driven growth as one of the main drivers of the rise in pollution. |
| Keywords: | Trade, pollution, satellite, supply chain, coal power plants, electricity |
| JEL: | D22 F18 F64 H23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2025:04 |
| By: | Yuta Kuroda; Takeru Sugasawa |
| Abstract: | This study uses two-stage hedonic estimation to examine household preferences for scattered greenery (e.g., roadside trees and yard bushes) in highly developed urban areas. We use proprietary survey data to obtain a wealth of property and resident characteristics and link these to scattered greenery based on high-resolution satellite images and surrounding amenity characteristics for analysis. The results showed that the preferences for scattered greenery were highly heterogeneous and that a few households were willing to pay a hefty amount. The average household pays about 1, 540 yen per month for scattered greenery if they live on their owned property and about 300 yen per month if they live on rented property. Also, regardless of the type of residence, wealthy people prefer scattered greenery, while those who plan to move within a few years tend to like it less. Additionally, even if they live on an owned property, single households have little willingness to pay for greenery, and even if they live on a rented property, people with a high level of health awareness or people living with children have a high willingness to pay. The results of this study shed light on the causes of heterogeneity in preferences for greenery by decomposing the property and resident characteristics that have been confused in previous studies. |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:148 |
| By: | Agramont, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolving geopolitical dynamics surrounding critical raw materials (CRMs), with a focus on Latin America and the European Union's (EU) attempt to secure access to these resources amid intensifying competition with China. Drawing from trade statistics, foreign investment trends, and institutional strategies, the study assesses the EU’s renewed interest in Latin America through the Global Gateway and the Win-Win Partnership frameworks. While China's economic footprint in the region is deeply entrenched through its South-South cooperation model, the EU seeks to reposition itself as a viable partner by leveraging environmental and governance standards. The analysis identifies key minerals—particularly lithium, copper, and lead—where dependency and vulnerability are highest, and where strategic diversification is urgently needed. Ultimately, the paper argues that the EU’s success will depend on its ability to implement a more flexible and pragmatic strategy, balancing its normative approach with tangible development outcomes for Latin American partners. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics; critical raw materials; EU-Latin America; energy transition |
| JEL: | F14 F59 Q34 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129191 |
| By: | Bluhm, Richard; Dreher, Axel; Fuchs, Andreas; Parks, Bradley C.; Strange, Austin M.; Tierney, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of transport infrastructure on the spatial distribution of economic activity within subnational regions across a large number of developing countries. To do so, we introduce a new global dataset of geolocated Chinese grant- and loan-financed development projects from 2000 to 2014 and combine it with measures of spatial concentration based on remotely sensed data. We find that Chinese financed transportation projects decentralize economic activity within regions, as measured by a spatial Gini coefficient, by 2.2 percentage points. The treatment effects are particularly strong in regions that are less developed, more urbanized, and located closer to cities. |
| Keywords: | Development finance, Transport costs, Infrastructure, Foreign aid, Spatial concentration, China |
| JEL: | F35 R11 R12 P33 O18 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:323671 |
| By: | Leo Yang Yang; Yiqing Xu |
| Abstract: | We examine the behavioral effects of a user location disclosure policy implemented by Sina Weibo, China's largest microblogging platform, using a high-frequency dataset of uncensored user engagement, including tens of thousands of comments, on 165 prominent government and media accounts. Exploiting the platform's abrupt rollout of IP-based location tags on April 28, 2022, we compare user behavior in comment sections before and after the policy change. Although the policy was publicly justified as a measure to curb misinformation and counter foreign influence, we find no decline in participation by overseas users. Instead, it significantly reduced domestic engagement with local issues outside users' home provinces, particularly among critical comments. Evidence suggests this effect was not driven by generalized fear or concerns about credibility, but by a rise in regionally discriminatory replies that increased the social cost of cross-provincial engagement. Our findings indicate that identity disclosure tools can produce unintended consequences by activating existing social divisions in ways that reinforce state control without direct censorship. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.03238 |
| By: | Bharti Nandwani (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ishita Verma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a decentralisation program implemented in India's Schedule Five Areas - home to 100 million indigenous people (Scheduled Tribes, or STs) - on maternal healthcare utilisation. The program institutionalised local governance councils and introduced political reservations for STs, granting these councils formal authority over the provision of public goods and services. Using three rounds of a large-scale reproductive health data and a difference-in-differences strategy exploiting staggered program implementation, we find that the policy significantly increased the use of antenatal care services, particularly from government facilities. It also reduced delivery complications and increased reliance on public services for managing such complications. Evidence suggests that these improvements were driven by increased trust in the health system when political representatives belonged to the ST community. The findings highlight how decentralisation combined with political inclusion can improve public service utilisation and health outcomes among historically marginalised population. |
| Keywords: | Decentralisation, India, Political representation, Maternal healthcare, Public service delivery, Local governance |
| JEL: | I15 H75 O12 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-014 |
| By: | Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia; Siddharth Kothari; Yifan Tao |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the size of the main industrial policy instruments in China and estimates their impact on domestic factor misallocation and aggregate productivity. The quantification of industrial policy instruments leverages data from financial reports of listed firms and the land registry. The equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy through cash subsidies, tax benefits, subsidized credit, and subsidized land for favored sectors (including both private and state-owned firms) is estimated at about 4 percent of GDP per year, with a growing share of tax benefits over time. Next, the paper uses a structural model to estimate the relationship between industrial policies and factor misallocation for a broad sample of firms. Various industrial policy instruments are found to affect factor allocations in different ways—subsidies tend to lead to excess production, while trade and regulatory barriers limit production. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies is estimated to reduce domestic aggregate TFP by about 1.2 percent. The results resonate with IMF policy recommendations for China to scale back industrial policy and increase its transparency. |
| Keywords: | China; Industrial Policy; Misallocation; Productivity; policy instrument; factor misallocation; land registry; No. 2025/155; IMF policy recommendation; Total factor productivity; Corporate income tax; Manufacturing; Public enterprises |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/155 |
| By: | Felix Rusche (University of Mannheim & Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | In poor countries, the interaction of early marriage, early motherhood, and low educational attainment disempowers women and limits their life opportunities. Even as countries grow richer, gender inequality is often sustained by social norms, thereby limiting welfare gains from women’s empowerment. I investigate the use of media as a cheap and scalable policy to empower women. In 2006, India enacted a community radio policy that grants radio licenses to NGOs and educational institutions with the aim to foster local development. I collect original data on the content and coverage areas of all 250+ radio stations. I uncover women’s empowerment as a key theme through topic modeling and ChatGPT-based analyses of radio show recordings. For identification, I exploit topography-driven variation in radio access and develop a novel econometric approach to deal with randomly displaced geolocated household data. The results show that women exposed to radio gain an additional 0.3 years of education and are 4.1pp (11%) more likely to obtain a secondary degree. In line with increased education, exposure reduces child marriages by 1.4pp (22%) and fertility of young women by around 10% while they are 11pp more likely to exhibit autonomy in household decisions. The findings demonstrate that community media can effectively address gender inequality. |
| Keywords: | Mass Media, Policy, Women Empowerment, Spatial Econometrics, Education |
| JEL: | O12 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2025_05 |
| By: | Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo); Wang, Tong (Ritsumeikan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of class-size reduction on students’ academic outcomes, with a particular emphasis on its heterogeneity based on classmates’ characteristics. We estimate the causal effects of class-size reduction on students’ mathematics and language test scores by controlling for student and teacher fixed effects. To address potential endogeneity, we employ the predicted class size with a cap as an instrumental variable for the actual class size. Utilizing rich panel data on Japanese primary school students, our findings indicate a positive and robust average effect of class-size reduction on mathematics test scores. Furthermore, we find that classes with high-ability classmates benefit even more from class-size reduction in terms of language test scores. The effect of class-size reduction on mathematics test scores is found to depend positively on the ability of the lowest-achieving student in a class. Additionally, classes with a higher proportion of female students tend to benefit more from class-size reduction. Our results lend support to the theoretical framework proposed by Lazear (2001). |
| Keywords: | class-size reduction, test scores, education, ability, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J13 J18 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18025 |
| By: | Alves, Ana Cristina; Alden, Christopher |
| Abstract: | This article explores the intricacies of replicating China’s structural economic transformation through special economic zones (SEZs) in Africa, with a focus on the Eastern Industry Zone (EIZ) in Ethiopia. Combining insights from empirical research and the literature on China’s development model, African SEZs and Chinese economic and trade cooperation zones (ETCZs) in Africa, we contend that while static industrialisation policies can be transposed more readily, the dynamic aspects that underpin China’s model face challenges due to differences in institutional capacity and contextual synergies (internal and external). This hampers the efficacy of ETCZs in steering structural economic transformation. The article advocates for a more creative adaptation process, urging dynamic learning and leadership level innovation to address institutional and structural weaknesses while reducing vulnerability to externalities. |
| Keywords: | China-Africa; economic zones; Chinese model emulation; industrialisation challenges; policy adaptation; African economic transformation; EIZ Ethiopia |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121446 |
| By: | Özdogan, Mutlu; Wang, Sherrie; Ghose, Devaki; Fraga, Eduardo; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Varela, Gonzalo J. |
| Abstract: | Rice is a staple crop for over half the world’s population, and accurate, timely information on its planted area and production is crucial for food security and agricultural policy, particularly in developing nations like Sri Lanka. However, reliable rice monitoring in regions like Sri Lanka faces significant challenges due to frequent cloud cover and the fragmented nature of small-holder farms. This research introduces a novel, cost-effective method for mapping rice planted area and yield at field scales in Sri Lanka using optical satellite data. The rice planted fields were identified and mapped using a phenologically-tuned image classification algorithm that high-lights rice presence by observing water occurrence during transplanting and vegetation activity during subsequent crop growth. To estimate yields, a random forest regression model was trained at the district level by incorporating a satellite-derived chlorophyll index and environmental variables and subsequently applied at the field level. The approach has enabled the creation of two decades (2000–2022) of reliable, field-scale rice area and yield estimates, achieving map accuracies between 70% and over 90% and yield estimations with less than 20% RMSE. These highly granular results, which were previously unattainable through traditional surveys, show strong correlation with government statistics. They also demonstrate the ad-vantages of a rule-based, phenology-driven classification over purely statistical machine learning models for long-term consistency in dynamic agricultural environments. This work highlights the significant potential of remote sensing to provide accurate and detailed insights into rice cultivation, supporting policy decisions and enhancing food security in Sri Lanka and other cloud-prone regions. |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11194 |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Vipasha Pandey (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | A puzzling characteristic of post-pandemic Indian inflation is the fall, within 10 years of adopting flexible inflation targeting (IT), in core inflation to lifetime lows despite high growth and recurrent commodity price shocks. Establishing the credibility of IT is expected to take time in emerging markets (EMs) since prerequisites are thought to include independent central banks (CBs) that focus only on inflation, giving up other types of intervention. The Indian CB, however, continued foreign exchange intervention and its coordination with the government improved over the period. Even so, our evidence from multiple exercises with a disaggregated industry panel suggests firms pass-through of supply shocks reduced in the IT period. The results support the effectiveness of the communications and expectations channel in EMs compared to other channels. EM features imply prerequisites for successful IT may not be the traditional ones. Flexible inflation targeting, with procedures adapted to the context, can reduce growth sacrifice while lowering inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting, firms' price-setting, supply shocks, expectations channel |
| JEL: | E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-010 |
| By: | Ishita Varma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | India's indigenous communities (Schedule Tribes or STs) have historically relied on forests for their subsistence, livelihood and cultural identity. Despite this, the STs lacked formal rights to reside in forests and use forest resources under governmental control. In 2008, the Forest Rights Act (FRA) was implemented which granted these STs access to forest land and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). This paper examines the impact of FRA on the dietary diversity of STs. We evaluate this objective by making use of four rounds of a large-scale consumer expenditure survey and use variation in forest cover as a proxy for the potential of the Act to employ a generalised difference-in-differences strategy. We find that post-FRA, dietary diversity of ST households increased in areas with greater forest cover. This increased dietary diversity is driven by an increase in the diversity of vegetables, fruits, and oils consumed. In addition, we find that the sources of food shifted from subsistence-based collection and cultivation to market purchases. Suggestive evidence points to an occupational shift toward non-agricultural employments, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, potentially facilitated by improved NTFP access. |
| Keywords: | FRA, Dietary Diversity, Indigenous Communities, Forest Dwellers, Land Tenure |
| JEL: | J15 O15 Q15 Q23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-012 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how executive demographics particularly age and gender influence artificial intelligence (AI) investment decisions and subsequent firm productivity using comprehensive data from over 500 Japanese enterprises spanning from 2018 to 2023. Our central research question addresses the role of executive characteristics in technology adoption, finding that CEO age and technical background significantly predict AI investment propensity. Employing these demographic characteristics as instrumental variables to address endogeneity concerns, we identify a statistically significant 2.4% increase in total factor productivity attributable to AI investment adoption. Our novel mechanism decomposition framework reveals that productivity gains operate through three distinct channels: cost reduction (40% of total effect), revenue enhancement (35%), and innovation acceleration (25%). The results demonstrate that younger executives (below 50 years) are 23% more likely to adopt AI technologies, while firm size significantly moderates this relationship. Aggregate projections suggest potential GDP impacts of 1.15 trillion JPY from widespread AI adoption across the Japanese economy. These findings provide crucial empirical guidance for understanding the human factors driving digital transformation and inform both corporate governance and public policy regarding AI investment incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.03757 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth Raja; Robins, Nick; Tandon, Suranjali |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on the increasing role that institutional investors will play in advancing the just transition in India, given the vast capital they can bring to bear and attractiveness of the Indian economy to foreign portfolio investments. The authors identify levers for investors to develop real-world practice, build confidence, and lay the foundations for broad-based adoption in ways that support national priorities. They also outline the just transition challenge and risk facing India, examples of building momentum for action, and the need to attract more international capital. |
| Keywords: | banking; institutional investors; energy; agriculture and nature; built environment; India; policy; policy reform |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129016 |
| By: | William Milberg (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA); Lauren Johnston (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA) |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Yogeshwar Bharat (Shiv Nadar University); Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Gautham Udupa (Centre For Advanced Financial Research And Learning) |
| Abstract: | Core inflation measure is widely tracked as a measure of trend inflation, but it does not forecast headline inflation well. In this paper, we use disaggregated, state-level inflation data from India to construct a `cleaned' core inflation measure. We do this by stripping out the passthrough of past food inflation from the raw core inflation measure. We estimate the passthrough using local projection with global supply-side instruments in order to achieve better identification. We further find that our `cleaned' core inflation measure generates better forecasts of the headline inflation after a six-month horizon, compared to the raw core measure. |
| Keywords: | Inflation forecasting, Core inflation, Headline inflation, State-level inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-021 |
| By: | Japneet Kaur (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new composite indicator of student achievement, grounded in an axiomatic framework. Unlike conventional measures that assign equal weight to all subjects, our index applies student and subject specific weights, placing greater emphasis on areas where a student performs well. This allows for a more individualized assessment, recognizing strengths in non-core subjects like music, sports, or social sciences. Using test score data from 44, 173 students studying in 117 private English medium schools in rural North India, we compare our indices with the traditional average score index. The results show that a substantial proportion of students initially ranked in the bottom quartile move up significantly under our metric, highlighting overlooked talent. The proposed indices CS1 and CS2 markedly increase mean scores from 0.696 (under the original index CS0) to 0.838 and nearly 1.0, respectively, while sharply reducing standard deviations from 1.88 to 0.129 and 0.017. |
| Keywords: | Composite indicators, Academic achievement, Multiple intelligences |
| JEL: | D31 I31 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-008 |
| By: | Shun-ichiro BESSHO; Ryuichi TANAKA; Haruko NOGUCHI; Akira KAWAMURA; Masato OIKAWA |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the impact of academic and physical fitness rankings in the sixth grade on the academic and physical fitness outcomes of ninth-grade students. While existing literature extensively explores the effects of academic rank on various outcomes, this study uniquely examines the concurrent influence of both academic and physical fitness ranks. We analyzed the relationship between sixth-grade rankings and ninth-grade performance using administrative data from a large municipality in the Tokyo metropolitan area of Japan. Additionally, we explored the mechanisms driving these effects using student questionnaire data on behaviors and opinions. We found a positive effect of sixth-grade ordinal ranks on both academic and physical fitness, as measured by the corresponding ninth-grade scores. These rank effects were largely linear and were more pronounced for males in terms of academic achievement. No significant heterogeneity in the effects was observed by socioeconomic status or the teacher’s gender. While no spillover effects exist between academic and physical fitness, a higher mathematics rank is correlated with better performance in Japanese language arts. Finally, higher ordinal ranks were associated with increased motivation among female students, whereas male students exhibited evidence of the effects of misinformation on their abilities. No external influences from teachers or parents were observed. This study highlights the importance of considering both academic and physical fitness rankings when analyzing student outcomes, thereby contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of peer effects in education. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25075 |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Ming Li; Jia Xiang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how physicians adjust their clinical decision-making following medical malpractice lawsuits and how these responses are driven by mental rather than financial costs, and do not align with rational expectations. We combine a comprehensive health insurance claim database from a Chinese city with the universe of malpractice lawsuits to study changes in physician behavior and patient outcomes. We find that physicians respond to lawsuits by practicing more conservatively, rejecting high-risk patients, reducing surgery rates, and increasing the use of diagnostic tests and traditional Chinese medicine. These changes are associated with worse patient outcomes, consistent with defensive medicine. The effects are not limited to the directly involved departments but spill over to other departments within the same hospital. In addition, the changes are short-lived, with physicians reverting to their pre-lawsuit treatment patterns in eight weeks. We provide evidence that such responses are likely driven by mental cost (including fear) and deviate from rational expectations. First, physicians in hospitals with more and less frequent lawsuits exhibit similar responses to a new lawsuit; moreover, they respond similarly to winning and losing cases. Second, physicians’ reactions to a patient’s death vary depending on the recency of a salient lawsuit. Lastly, physician responses are especially strong following criminal violence against physicians, which is emotionally and psychologically salient. |
| JEL: | I11 I12 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34115 |
| By: | Asmus-Bluhm, Gerda; Eichenauer, Vera Z.; Fuchs, Andreas; Parks, Bradley |
| Abstract: | China and India increasingly provide aid and credit to developing countries. This article explores whether India uses these financial instruments to compete for geopolitical and commercial influence with China. We build a new geocoded dataset of Indian government-financed projects in the Global South between 2007 and 2014 and combine it with data on Chinese government-financed projects. Our regression results for 2, 333 provinces within 123 countries demonstrate that India’s Exim Bank is significantly more likely to locate a project in a given jurisdiction if China provided government financing there in the previous year. Since this effect is more pronounced in countries where India is more popular relative to China and where both lenders have a similar export structure, we interpret this as evidence of India competing with China. By contrast, we do not find evidence that China uses official aid or credit to compete with India through co-located projects. |
| Keywords: | development finance, foreign aid, official development assistance, official credits, South-South cooperation, China, India, geostrategic competition, geospatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:323600 |
| By: | Syeda Tasnim Fabiha; Rubaiyat Jahan Mumu; Farzana Aktar; B M Mainul Hossain |
| Abstract: | Share market is one of the most important sectors of economic development of a country. Everyday almost all companies issue their shares and investors buy and sell shares of these companies. Generally investors want to buy shares of the companies whose market liquidity is comparatively greater. Market liquidity depends on the average price of a share. In this paper, a thorough linear regression analysis has been performed on the stock market data of Dhaka Stock Exchange. Later, the linear model has been compared with random forest based on different metrics showing better results for random forest model. However, the amount of individual significance of different factors on the variability of stock price has been identified and explained. This paper also shows that the time series data is not capable of generating a predictive linear model for analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.18643 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex (University College London); Kambayashi, Ryo (Musashi University); Kuwahara, Susumu (Reitaku University); Nakamura, Akie (Rengo-RIALS); Wels, Jacques (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | Official government estimates show a gradual decline in union density in Japan over several decades akin to that in other countries with decentralized bargaining structures. However, new evidence from various social surveys indicates that union density has been rising in Japan. Using one of these social surveys – the Survey on the Work and Life of Workers (SWLW) – we show union density has risen by 7.3 percentage points to 29.1% in the Japanese private sector between 2011/13 and 2020/24. We decompose the growth in union density since 2011/13 to establish how much of it is attributable to changes in workforce composition. Conditioning on union presence at the workplace, compositional change accounts for 47% of the increase in union density. The remaining 53% is due to within-group change with unions increasing membership across all types of worker including some with traditionally low rates of unionization. However, establishing a union at the workplace remains key since virtually all the growth in union membership (97%) is in unionized workplaces. |
| Keywords: | Japan, union presence, union density, union membership, decomposition |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18010 |
| By: | Nicholls, Mark |
| Abstract: | One of the defining features of the just transition is its potential to maximise the social opportunities of climate action, including by creating employment. In India, Ayana Renewable Power is combining the social need for decent work with business self-interest by developing skills development programmes for local people so they can participate in the growing clean energy economy – which in the country as a whole is set to generate hundreds of thousands of new jobs. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129022 |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | The literature expects it to take a long to establish inflation targeting (IT) in emerging markets, but the Indian experience suggests that suitable adaption of IT to domestic structure and shocks as well as circumstances can fast-track the process while reducing growth sacrifice. The paper provides evidence and possible further refinements. Key features that worked well were flexible implementation, unlike the pre-pandemic over-strictness; counter-cyclical smoothing of shocks with real rates near equilibrium; good fiscal-monetary coordination with independence in rate-setting; use of complementary prudential regulation and liquidity management; establishing adequate independence from global cycles. The IT framework needs to preserve these features. Use of better inflation data, more transparency and accountability in inflation forecasts and in liquidity management would improve outcomes. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting, Indian experience, structure, shocks, flexibility, real rates, indpendence |
| JEL: | E52 E63 E65 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-018 |
| By: | Kharel, Raj; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of three key components of devolution —government expenditure, internal revenue, and both conditional and unconditional transfers— on the economic resilience of Nepal’s local governments during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Bridging the gap between the devolution and resilience literature, it focuses on Nepal, a country that embarked on an ambitious devolution journey, transitioning to a Federal Democratic Republic following the monarchy’s overthrow in 2008. This transition was institutionalised through the 2015 constitution, which established a three-tier system of government. The analysis reveals that, following fiscal devolution in 2017/18, local government expenditures and intergovernmental transfers significantly enhanced the resilience of rural and semi-urban municipalities. However, internal revenue collection has played a limited role in this process. In a country with low local-level capacity, conditional transfers —primarily allocated for infrastructure and services— have been crucial for local economic resilience, whereas unconditional transfers have not demonstrated the same impact. The findings suggest that greater investment, rather than autonomy, has been the primary driver of subnational economic resilience in Nepal. |
| Keywords: | devolution; fiscal revenues; fiscal transfers; resilience; subnational governments; Nepal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129012 |
| By: | Yi Jiang |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susphd:0324 |
| By: | Raj Kharel; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of three key components of devolution — government expenditure, internal revenue, and both conditional and unconditional transfers— on the economic resilience of Nepal’s local governments during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Bridging the gap between the devolution and resilience literature, it focuses on Nepal, a country that embarked on an ambitious devolution journey, transitioning to a Federal Democratic Republic following the monarchy's overthrow in 2008. This transition was institutionalised through the 2015 constitution, which established a three-tier system of government. The analysis reveals that, following fiscal devolution in 2017/18, local government expenditures and intergovernmental transfers significantly enhanced the resilience of rural and semi-urban municipalities. However, internal revenue collection has played a limited role in this process. In a country with low local-level capacity, conditional transfers — primarily allocated for infrastructure and services— have been crucial for local economic resilience, whereas unconditional transfers have not demonstrated the same impact. The findings suggest that greater investment, rather than autonomy, has been the primary driver of subnational economic resilience in Nepal. |
| Keywords: | Devolution, Fiscal Revenues, Fiscal Transfers, Resilience, Subnational Governments, Nepal |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2523 |
| By: | Japneer Kaur (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique longitudinal dataset tracking 116, 026 students from Grade 1 to Grade 10, we examine the emergence, evolution, and drivers of gender gaps in academic achievement. We document large and widening female advantages: in English, the gap grows from 0.2 to 0.65 standard deviations (SD), and in math, from 0.1 to 0.4 SD. These patterns are consistent across cohorts, grades, and performance quartiles, and remain robust to the inclusion of classroom fixed effects. Adjusting for family background and teacher characteristics further enlarges the estimated gaps, particularly in higher grades. Importantly, the gaps persist even among opposite gender siblings raised in the same household. Leveraging the random assignment of students to classrooms, we assess the causal effects of teacher gender and peer composition, but find these factors account for little of the observed gaps. In contrast, controlling for prior achievement-a proxy for baseline ability and unobserved individual heterogeneity-substantially attenuates the gaps. To further probe individual-level variation, we analyze traits such as diligence, hard work, and attentiveness among opposite-gender sibling pairs. We find that sisters consistently outperform their brothers on these dimensions, with disparities widening as students progress through grades. Taken together, our findings suggest that individual traits may play a central role in driving the widening gender gap over time. |
| Keywords: | Gender achievement gap, peer effects, teacher gender, teacher bias, parental characteristics, individual traits, student behavior, mobility matrices, quantile regression |
| JEL: | I20 J11 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-016 |
| By: | Surabhi Garg (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Srijit Mishra (University of Hyderabad) |
| Abstract: | Mother's effective literacy status has instrumental importance in affecting child's health outcomes. This is not to dismiss the relevance of a father's literacy, but to posit a primitive that the father's literacy is by-and-large channelled through the mother. Having said that, the current analysis is an attempt to capture the impact of mother's effective literacy status (mother has the advantage of dual literacy - her own and that of the child's father, mother is literate but the child's father is illiterate, mother is proximate illiterate by being in proximity to the child's father who is literate, mother is secluded illiterate as neither she nor the child's father are literate) on child health outcomes. To begin with, we use Triplots to depict the percentage of children under 5 years of age with severity of anaemia, stunting, wasting and underweight for different effective literacy status of mother in India. Further, multinomial logit model is used to examine the effect of mother's effective literacy status on children below 5 years of age for rural and urban India. The results show that, compared to mother's secluded illiteracy, mother being proximate illiterate, literate alone or dual literate affect child health significantly for all the four health indicators in rural areas and for stunting and underweight in urban areas. Further, the effect of mother's dual literacy status is more pronounced than when literate alone, which is higher than when she is proximate illiterate. We further test for the differential effect of effective literacy status of mother with respect to the gender of the child and the level of education of the literate parent. It is also observed that that higher level of education of the literate parent is associated with lower log-odds of the child being unhealthy vis-…-vis healthy in both rural and urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Proximate illiteracy, Secluded illiteracy, Child health outcomes, Anaemia, Stunting, Wasting, Underweight, India |
| JEL: | C25 C55 I14 I21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-009 |
| By: | Sourav Das (University of Kassel); Patrick Hufschmidt (Technical University of Dortmund); Fabian Mankat (University of Kassel); Konstantinos Theocharopoulos (University of Siegen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election periods. While swing states consistently receive higher discretionary transfers due to their electoral competitiveness, the election-period increase is larger for non-swing states. Using a panel dataset of Indian states from 2006 to 2022, we find evidence consistent with the theoretical model: discretionary transfers are significantly higher in federal election periods, swing states receive more discretionary transfers in non-election periods, and the election-period increase in discretionary transfers is more pronounced for non-swing states. |
| Keywords: | Political budget cycles, Swing states, Federal systems, Elections, India |
| JEL: | D83 E62 H70 H72 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202518 |
| By: | Avner Greif; Joel Mokyr; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | Why did the industrial revolution occur in Europe and not in China, despite China being well ahead of Europe in terms of economic and technological achievements several centuries earlier? We revisit this long-standing question from a new perspective. We emphasize the importance of the different social organizations that diffused in these two parts of the world in the centuries that preceded the industrial revolution: kin-based organizations in China, vs corporations in Europe. We explain their cultural origins, and discuss how these different organizations shaped the evolution of legal systems, political institutions and human capital accumulation in these two parts of the world. Our main argument is that European corporations played a crucial role in the scientific and technological innovations that ultimately led to the industrial revolution. |
| Keywords: | industrial revolution, China, Europe, culture, institutions, organizations |
| JEL: | N00 P00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12023 |