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on South East Asia |
| By: | Suvangi Rath (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Tanay Suntwal (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Aishwarya Rohatgi |
| Abstract: | India-ASEAN agricultural trade has grown significantly in the past two decades, though challenges remain in achieving balanced growth. India's agricultural exports to ASEAN have increased, but overall, it has faced a trade deficit, with imports consistently surpassing exports except in a few years. The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA), signed in 2008 and implemented in 2010, aimed to boost trade by reducing tariffs on agricultural and other goods. Early Harvest Schemes, such as the 2006 agreement with Thailand, were initial steps toward gradual tariff reductions on select products. Despite these concessions, India's export growth has been constrained by non-tariff measures (NTMs), including sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations and technical trade barriers (TBT). While some NTMs declined after the FTA, market access remains limited. Trade intensity indices indicate a strong preference for agricultural exports to ASEAN, with Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Myanmar as key partners. However, ASEAN's competitive position in agricultural trade has resulted in a trade balance favouring ASEAN. This report explores the opportunities to strengthen India's agricultural exports by improving product standards, diversifying exports, enhancing trade facilitation, and leveraging India's proximity to ASEAN markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) for logistical advantages. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN-India Agriculture Trade, AIFTA, Non-Tariff-Measures, Agriculture, icrier, |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-15 |
| By: | Resendiz, Jose L.; Ranger, Nicola; Sulaeman, Johan; Broadstock, David C. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Southeast Asia’s sustainability-linked finance (SLF) market—an emerging class of instruments that tie borrowing costs to sustainability outcomes—and its treatment of risks such as deforestation and biodiversity loss. Using market analysis and a retrieval-augmented generation approach to extract corporate-report data, we assess the alignment between Sustainability Performance Targets (SPTs), firms’ disclosed KPIs and the TNFD’s global guidance across 2017-2024, covering over 200 deals worth nearly USD 20 billion. Companies frequently report performance that exceeds their SPTs; although this appears positive, the excess metrics are not subject to SPT-level verification, weakening accountability and increasing greenwashing risk. We find that over 60% of nature-related KPIs—especially water and waste—are omitted from SPTs, exposing inconsistencies between what firms monitor and what their financiers reward. Sustainability-linked loans dominate activity, led by Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, while other SLF instruments lag behind. We recommend aligning disclosures with SLF SPTs using emerging standards, accrediting financial institutions that act as sustainability coordinators to vet SPTs in the SLF deals, and introducing fiscal incentives like tax exemptions and credit guarantees to mobilise investment and reduce greenwashing risks. |
| Keywords: | nature-related risks; corporate reporting; sustainability-linked finance; key performance indicators |
| JEL: | G18 Q56 G32 K32 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129042 |
| By: | Schedelik, Michael; Nölke, Andreas |
| Abstract: | The paper departs from the perspective of "second image IPE, " i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment ("China shock") has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia. |
| Abstract: | Das Discussion Paper geht von der "second image IPE"-Perspektive aus, das heißt der Notwendigkeit, die Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie (VPÖ) und die Internationale Politische Ökonomie (IPÖ) eng miteinander zu verknüpfen. Konkret konzentriert es sich auf die Beobachtung, dass die Wachstumsmodelle in der (ehemaligen) Peripherie der Weltwirtschaft (ein typischer Schwerpunkt der VPÖ) stark von ihren Interdependenzen mit den strukturellen Transformationen der Weltwirtschaft (wie sie von der IPÖ untersucht werden) geprägt sind. Gleichzeitig können die Veränderungen innerhalb der Wachstumsmodelle großer Volkswirtschaften in dieser Peripherie (VPÖ) erhebliche Auswirkungen auf globale Interdependenzen (IPÖ) haben. So hatte beispielsweise der Aufstieg Chinas zu einem wichtigen Akteur im Welthandel und bei Investitionen ("China-Schock") über Importpenetration, Direktinvestitionen und Exportnachfrage erheblichen Einfluss auf die Wachstumsmodelle in anderen Teilen der Peripherie. Das Paper zeigt, wie diese Wachstumsmodelle internationale Interdependenzen prägen (und durch sie geprägt werden), indem es erstens die Effekte globaler Rohstoffzyklen auf die Wachstumserfahrungen mehrerer bedeutender Exporteure von Primärressourcen wie Brasilien oder Indonesien während und nach dem jüngsten Rohstoffboom analysiert. Zweitens erörtert das Paper die Auswirkungen globaler Finanzzyklen auf Peripherieländer, insbesondere auf jene, die schuldengetriebene Wachstumsmodelle verfolgen, wie Südafrika oder die Türkei. Drittens untersucht es die Rolle globaler Produktionsketten und ausländischer Direktinvestitionen für FDI-getriebene Wachstumsmodelle von Exporteuren von Fertigungsgütern wie Thailand oder Vietnam in Südostasien. |
| Keywords: | commodity prices, comparative political economy, emerging economies, financial flows, foreign direct investment, global economy, global production chains, growth models, international political economy, middle-income trap, second image IPE, ausländische Direktinvestitionen, Falle des mittleren Einkommens, Finanzströme, globale Produktionsketten, Internationale Politische Ökonomie, Rohstoffpreise, Schwellenländer, Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie, Wachstumsmodelle, Weltwirtschaft |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:323933 |
| By: | Maretha Roseline Syahnie (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Muhammad Ryan Sanjaya (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada) |
| Abstract: | MSMEs, also known as micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, are the backbone of the economy in developing countries. Empirical studies indicate that SMEs generally face obstacles, particularly in financing. This study focuses on two main aspects: indexing financial inclusion using principal component analysis (PCA), and analyzing credit and financial inclusion using vector autoregression (VAR) for forecasting. Through a two-stage indexing methodology, the study emphasizes the importance of geographical reach in financial inclusion availability compared to demographic reach, with availability being the most crucial dimension compared to accessibility and usage. VAR models and forecasting were developed for the period from March 2012 to July 2022 in Indonesia, incorporating other variables, such as accessto credit, credit risk, and real GDP. The use of VAR demonstrates consistency, accuracy, and reliability in producing predictions that closely approximate reality, providing a critical basis for policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) financing, principal component analysis (PCA), financial inclusion index, credit, vector autoregression (VAR), forecasting, Indonesia |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202407007 |
| By: | Werdaningtyas, Hesti; Achsani, Nur Azam; Ratnawati, Anny; Irawan, Tony |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the factors that influence the capital structure of manufacturing companies in Indonesia. The novelty of this study lies in its advanced methodology, utilising a dynamic model, system-generalised methods of moments (Sys-GMM) estimation, and post-estimation analysis. Our study employs data from 159 publicly traded manufacturing firms. We focus on firm-specific factors, including leverage, profitability, sales, equity, and non-debt tax shields. Our findings suggest that determinant of leverage in Indonesian manufacturing firms, influenced by firm-specific factors and time-varying variables, particularly profitability, which has a negative impact on leverage. Firms with high profits are more likely to use internal sources of finance, whereas firms with low profitability are more likely to use loans, as they often lack sufficient retained earnings. Leverage among manufacturing firms exhibits persistence, as reflected by the significantly positive coefficient of the lagged leverage variable. This suggests that leverage decisions are path-dependent and gradually adjusted toward a long-term target. The time effect (year dummies) is significantly positive, indicating an upward trend in corporate leverage over time, which reflects the influence of macroeconomic conditions and fiscal/monetary policies on financing decisions. The practical implications of our research are significant, as it provides valuable insights into the capital structure and economic constraints of manufacturing companies in Indonesia, aiding management and other relevant stakeholders in making informed policy decisions. |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:grx8v_v1 |
| By: | Aristho Refo Putra (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Evi Noor Afifah (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada) |
| Abstract: | Poverty in Indonesia remains a critical issue, with a current rate of 9.57% that has not met the RPJPN target of 6.5% to 7.5%. This study analyzes the impact of mandatory government spending in education, health, and infrastructure on poverty from 2011 to 2022, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with data from 33 provinces. Findings indicate that spending in education and health significantly reduces poverty, while infrastructure spending does not show a notable effect. To effectively combat poverty, the research recommends that the central government optimize its allocation of mandatory spending and enhance funding in other areas to achieve better outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Education spending, health spending, infrastructure spending, poverty, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) |
| JEL: | E62 H51 H52 H54 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gme:wpaper:202407006 |
| By: | Alex Acheampong (Bond University); Donghyun Park (Asian Development Bank); Shu Tian (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the poverty reduction gains that are associated with access to digital technologies by using panel data based on 113 countries from 2000 to 2022. We address cross-sectional and temporal dependency with the Driscoll-Kraay technique, and endogeneity with the Lewbel two-stage least squares technique. The results indicate that the digital technology access index—comprising broadband, telephone, mobile, and internet access—contributes to poverty reduction, with the effect being persistent. Except for mobile phone usage, the rest of the digital technology proxies do not follow the critical mass hypothesis. Mediation analysis indicates that access to digital technologies contributes to poverty reduction by working through increasing gross domestic product per capita; accessing finance, education, and employment; and reducing income inequality. The poverty reduction gains of digital technologies are evident in developing Asia, landlocked/island nations, coastal/non-island countries, and advanced economies, with broadband and internet access contributing to poverty reduction during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Given the role of digital technologies in strengthening resilience, we call on policymakers to invest in and expand digital connectivity, particularly to vulnerable communities. |
| Keywords: | digital technologies;poverty;inclusive growth;COVID-19;developing Asian countries |
| JEL: | I30 O11 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021463 |
| By: | Kolaric, Sascha; Kiesel, Florian; Schiereck, Dirk |
| Abstract: | We analyse the financial sector consolidation in Asia by using a comprehensive sample of bank M&As from 1995 to 2021. Our results show that M&A announcements by Asian domestic acquirers are associated with significant positive stock price returns to both acquirers and their rivals. In contrast, cross‐border acquirers and their rivals experience negative but insignificant returns, while targets and their rivals record gains, regardless whether it is a domestic or cross‐border transaction. Further analyses reveal that domestic acquirers obtaining larger relative increases in their market share benefit the most, indicating that market power considerations are the primary driver behind acquirers' positive returns. For cross‐border acquirers, neither cultural differences nor regulatory arbitrage considerations can explain return patterns surrounding M&A announcements. |
| Date: | 2025–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:156087 |
| By: | Quynh Huynh (Univsersity College London); Hyejin Ku (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between economic development and female labor force participation, with a focus on the impact of gender norms. Analyzing quasi-random variation in provincial exports in reunified Vietnam from 2002 to 2018, we find that a positive economic shock led to a significant decline in women’s labor market engagement, particularly among married women from wealthier households and those with husbands in more skilled occupations. This trend is more pronounced in the South (formerly capitalist) than in the North (always socialist), and among native Southerners compared to Northerners relocated to the South after the war. Our findings highlight the importance of gender role attitudes in shaping women’s responses to rising incomes. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, social norms, gender role attitudes, income andsubstitution effects, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Wishnu Badrawani; Citra Amanda; Novi Maryaningsih; Carla Sheila Wulandari |
| Abstract: | Using a panel payment system dataset of thirty-three provinces in Indonesia, we examine the impact of digital payment on the regional economy, considering structural breaks induced by unprecedented events and policies. Digital payments were determined to significantly affect regional income and consumption before and after the identified breakpoint, with the impact greater following the break. Employing a novel method for structural break analysis within interactive effects panel data, we demonstrate that the break in retail payment models is due to COVID-19, and the break in the wholesale payment model is associated with the central bank's payment system policy. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02119 |
| By: | Nicko A Magnaye (Mindoro State University); Kennedy R. Sta. Rufina (Mindoro State University); Ivan Vincent O. Fabila (Mindoro State University); Reyciel M Visca (Mindoro State University); Gerolyn B Javier (Mindoro State University); Dianne R Oliveros (Mindoro State University) |
| Abstract: | Chick to Clicks, an ICT-based approach, was implemented to address challenges faced by small-scale poultry farmers in Bansud, Oriental Mindoro, Philippines. This study aimed to assess the impact of Chick to Clicks on poultry farming productivity, market access, and technology adoption. A questionnaire was administered to evaluate farmers' knowledge of technology, market accessibility challenges, and economic implications of technology adoption. The findings revealed a mean productivity score of 3.87, indicating moderate productivity in poultry farming with the use of technology. Similarly, the mean score for market access challenges was 3.87, highlighting the moderate level of challenges faced by farmers, primarily due to high feed costs. However, farmers demonstrated awareness of the benefits of technology integration, with a mean score of 3.44, while expressing concerns about hardware availability and cost. To enhance the implementation of Chick to Clicks, recommendations were made to improve hardware accessibility and promote the advantages of technology adoption. Furthermore, this study explored the integration of ICT and social media for sales monitoring in poultry management. The research highlighted the benefits of implementing Chick to Clicks, utilizing mobile apps and online platforms for optimized management, market expansion, and improved production. The findings indicated that ICT integration provided real-time monitoring, data analytics, and enhanced business performance for farmers in Bansud, Oriental Mindoro. It is recommended that farmers embrace these technological advancements to overcome challenges, enhance productivity, and increase profitability in poultry farming. This study contributes to the understanding of the potential of ICT-based approaches in agricultural development, sustainable farming practices, and poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Information Communication Technology Integration Poultry Farming Productivity Market Access, Information Communication Technology, Integration, Poultry Farming, Productivity, Market Access |
| Date: | 2023–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05090638 |
| By: | Maxime Ghazarian (CRISES - Centre de Recherches Interdisciplinaires en Sciences humaines et Sociales de Montpellier - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3) |
| Abstract: | At the time of the Indochina War, two dynamics of French foreign policy collided namely the construction of Europe and the struggle to preserve sovereignty in the Far East. After the pivot towards Europe, France tried to maximize its central place among European partners to Europeanize its Vietnamese policy. The objective was to continue the transition to diplomacy more adapted to French means while presenting to the Vietnamese interlocutors a large-scale partnership throughout the European Community. Through this process, France wished to remain the essential link in the cooperation, which it was otherwise seeking to confine to the intergovernmental level. The common European orientations towards the Vietnamese stakeholders between 1973 and 1975 finally led the Nine into paralysis. This only came to an end with reunification and the proclamation of the Socialist Republic of Việt Nam which allowed the establishment of multiform cooperation. |
| Abstract: | Au moment de la guerre d'Indochine, deux dynamiques de la politique étrangère française se sont entrechoquées, la construction européenne et la lutte pour préserver la souveraineté en « Extrême-Orient ». Après le pivot engagé en direction de l'Europe, la France a tenté de maximiser sa place centrale parmi les partenaires européens afin d'européaniser sa politique vietnamienne. L'objectif était de poursuivre la transition vers une diplomatie plus adaptée aux moyens français, tout en présentant aux interlocuteurs vietnamiens un partenariat d'envergure à travers l'Europe communautaire. Par ce processus, la France souhaitait rester le maillon essentiel de la coopération, qu'elle cherchait par ailleurs à cantonner à l'échelle intergouvernementale. Les orientations européennes communes vis-à-vis des parties prenantes vietnamiennes entre 1973 et 1975, entraînèrent finalement les Neuf dans une paralysie totale. Celle-ci ne se termina qu'à l'aune de la réunification et de la proclamation de la République socialiste du Việt Nam, qui permit l'établissement de coopérations multiformes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05103407 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sulakshana Rao (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | At the fashion and apparel level, India's apparel exports remain stagnant at under 3 per cent global market share. Key challenges include a fragmented supply chain, stringent regulations, and low integration with global brands. India's share in MMF apparel remains low due to high input costs and inverted GST structure. Meanwhile, countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam benefit from duty-free access in the EU and integrated production setups.To reverse this trend, the report calls for fast-tracking vertical integration of the T&A value chain, especially of select PM MITRA parks in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, with close coordination with state authorities. With the evolving global supply chains, India has a narrow but powerful window to unlock its full potential in T&A sector if policy, practices and products align swiftly. |
| Keywords: | Textile, Apparel, export, textile policy, agriculture, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-12 |
| By: | Jae Yoon Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Go Eun Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Under the authority of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, on February 10, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced the repeal of existing exemptions and waivers for tariffs on steel, aluminum, and related products, introducing a uniform 25 percent tariff without exception. The measure went into effect on March 12.<p> South Korean steel exports were already in decline; US tariffs have only intensified the concerns of a major downturn. - From January to April, South Korean steel exports to the US plunged by 10.2 percent year-on-year (YoY). Exports to the rest of the world fell by 2.6 percent YoY.<p> Yet, the effects of the Trump tariffs have yet to fully manifest, as the recent slump in exports to the US is largely attributable to the base effect. - The pronounced YoY decline reflects exceptionally strong export performance to the US during the same period in 2024, when exports reached their highest levels since 2018.<p> While exports of key general-purpose items such as hot-rolled steel sheets and heavy plates fell significantly, products upon which the US remains dependent — such as steel pipes, surface-treated steel sheets, and tin-plated sheets, and specialty steel — maintained solid performance. - The impact of potential tariffs under the new Trump administration is expected to vary by product category. - As of 2023, US import dependency remained relatively high for steel pipes and tin-plated sheets. It was not as dependent on imports for general-purpose steel products, such as hot-rolled sheets and heavy plates.<p> Caution is needed regarding the potential adverse effects of tariffs, particularly in the general-purpose steel segment. - Now that the US has eliminated import quotas, Korean steelmakers are likely to face intensified price and market competition with other tariff-affected countries, such as Taiwan and Vietnam. The application of a flat 25 percent tariff could place Korean products at a disadvantage in terms of price competitiveness. Although the removal of quota protections may increase short-term pressure on steel exports, it is essential for Korea to respond by optimizing its export strategies and enhancing the competitiveness of its products. |
| Keywords: | US tariffs; steel; steel industry; steel exports; trade; international trade; Trump; Trump tariffs; |
| JEL: | L61 F52 F62 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:021438 |
| By: | Nicko A Magnaye (Mindoro Staten University) |
| Abstract: | The study focused on evaluating the developed E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers in the Province of Oriental Mindoro, which aimed to improve the quality of selling the products in the market. The evaluation was based on ISO 25010 in determining the performance of the E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers in the Province of Oriental Mindoro, using the five (5) criteria, which are functional suitability, performance efficiency, usability, reliability, and security. The development phase used the developed E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers in the Province of Oriental Mindoro. The Waterfall Software Development Life Cycle Model involves gathering requirements, analysis, design, code, test, and user acceptance. The respondents evaluated the performance of the E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers as Effective. The results, using a t-test, showed that there is no significant difference between the evaluation of the rice farmers and IT practitioners in the performance of the E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers. The E-Trading Application for Rice Farmers was developed using the different stages in the Waterfall methodology. No significant difference exists in the evaluation between the rice farmers and IT practitioners on the developed E-trading Application as to functional suitability, performance efficiency, usability, reliability, and security. The E-Trading Application was recommended to the entire region of MIMAROPA for implementation to cater to more farmers and consider the respondents' suggestions to further improve the application. |
| Keywords: | e-trading rice farmers ICT adoption quality of selling products, e-trading, rice farmers, ICT adoption, quality of selling products |
| Date: | 2023–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05090632 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This article presents a literature review of the post-2020 bank non-performing loans (NPLs) research around the world and suggests directions for future research. Using the thematic and bibliometric literature review methodologies, we find that significant NPL research has emerged from the European, Asian, and African regions while fewer research has emerged from the Asia-Pacific, North America, Latin America and Caribbean regions as well as from SAARC and OECD countries. The new NPL determinants in the recent literature are corporate governance, fintech, financial inclusion, country risks, regulatory quality, political risks, shadow banking activity, the COVID-19 pandemic, public/external debt, country risks, real house prices, and the independence of the central bank. The common regional NPL determinants are corruption, GDP, debt, loan growth, inflation, capital adequacy ratio, lending rate, competition, the regulatory environment, and GDP growth. The common theories used in the recent literature to explain the behavior of NPL are agency theory, stakeholder theory, information asymmetry theory, and moral hazard theory while the common empirical methodologies used are the panel regression and system GMM regression methods. The implication is that financial regulators, bank supervisors and banking scholars should pay attention to the new emerging determinants of NPL. They should also understand the effect of NPL on financial/banking stability so that safeguards can be put in place to minimise the adverse effect of non-performing loans. More research is needed to provide insights into this area. |
| Keywords: | Banks, NPL, non-performing loans, research, determinants, literature review, world |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G29 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125217 |
| By: | C S Mohapatra (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Depannita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a multidimensional strategy for advancing financial inclusion in India as a cornerstone of the nation’s Viksit Bharat@2047 vision. It argues that inclusion must evolve from a metric of access to a transformative tool of economic citizenship—anchored in sustained literacy, institutional trust, equitable access, and user empowerment. India has made remarkable progress in expanding financial services. With over 54 crore Jan Dhan accounts, widespread use of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and targetted government schemes such as PMMY, APY, and PMSBY, formal financial access has increased across geographies and demographics. However, this infrastructural reach has not always translated into meaningful engagement. Inactive accounts, persistent gender and rural gaps, limited digital literacy, and deep-seated mistrust continue to hinder effective inclusion, especially among women, persons with disabilities, and low-income households. This paper conceptualises a shift from infrastructural inclusion to functional and resilient inclusion. It proposes four interdependent pillars as the foundation for long-term financial inclusion: (a) Sustained digital and financial literacy: financial literacy must be continuous, contextualised, and adaptive across life stages—delivered in local languages and formats tailored to diverse user needs; (b) Trustworthy institutions and transparent service delivery: building trust requires fair, culturally sensitive, and linguistically accessible services supported by strong grievance redress mechanisms and algorithmic accountability; (c) Inclusive technology design: digital tools must be accessible by default, incorporating universal design principles to serve users with disabilities, low literacy, or limited connectivity; and (d) Community-led financial ecosystems: community institutions such as SHGs, cooperatives, and panchayats must be embedded in policy design and service delivery to ensure credibility, ownership, and sustainability. The paper offers a comprehensive framework involving coordinated governance among regulators (RBI, SEBI, IRDAI, PFRDA, and IEPFA), enhanced financial literacy convergence, and rights-based legal safeguards. It advocates for embedding equity through targetted policy instruments, such as a National Disability Financial Inclusion Strategy, a Unified Inclusion Dashboard, and localised outreach models. The paper concludes by emphasising that financial inclusion for Viksit Bharat must be a sustained institutional commitment, rooted in participation, protection, provisioning, and permanence. It is not merely a vehicle for economic growth, but a democratic imperative for building a just and resilient financial future. |
| Keywords: | Financial Empowerment, Digital Financial Literacy, Vulnerable Communities, Community-based Literacy, Digitalization |
| JEL: | O16 G10 G28 D14 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:183 |
| By: | Kunath, Gero |
| Abstract: | The Chinese economy has experienced strong economic growth for more than four decades since the implementation of the Open Door Policy in 1978. The local governments of the Chinese provinces played a decisive role in implementing the ambitious development goals envisioned by the central government. In particular during economic crises, local governments were responsible for turning the massive monetary and fiscal stimuli into economic growth. Indeed, they were quite successful in steering the Chinese economy during the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in the late 2000s by maintaining strong economic growth. To counter economic downturns, the Chinese leadership and local governments heavily relied on large-scale public and industrial infrastructure projects as well as on the booming real estate sector. This decades-long lasting growth miracle was heavily financed by debt. By the end of 2024, the debtto-GDP ratio of the Chinese economy had reached a staggering 290 percent. Especially the debt accumulated by local governments and their implicit debt hidden in so-called local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) have proven to be problematic. Since the 1994 budget law and tax-sharing reforms, the financial leeway for local governments to acquire funds for their extensive public expenditures had been severely limited. The legislation curtailed the fiscal revenue streams for local governments and prohibited them from issuing bonds and from running any deficit. Therefore, local governments established LGFVs, which enabled local governments to fund their public expenditures aside from their official balance-sheets. The number of LGFVs and their associated debts blew up ever since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The Covid pandemic then marked the breaking point for the debt-fuelled Chinese growth model and revealed the vulnerability of the LGFV system. Consumer confidence and private consumption eroded, the booming real estate sector imploded and land sales revenues for local governments plummeted. In consequence, the financial backbone of LGFVs and their debts became fragile raising concerns about financial stability. These worries are particularly pronounced given the staggering scale of both on- and off-balance local government debt. By the end of 2024, official local government debt had reached close to 48 trillion RMB and LGFV debt was estimated at more than 60 trillion RMB. The current local government debt crisis is the legacy of an in parts failed growth model focused on infrastructure development. It calls for a shift towards a more balanced growth model with a heightened role for domestic private consumption in the Chinese economy. Now, the Chinese leadership must manage the risks for financial stability originating from local government and in particular LGFV debt. In the near future, it must then set the course for an overhaul of the economic growth model by implementing a range of structural reforms improving the coverage of and the access to public social services such as a gradual liberalization of the hukou system and a basic social security coverage. Additional relevant measures include an improved provision of financial instruments suitable for private social security. |
| Abstract: | Mit der Einführung von Reformen und einer Politik der offenen Tür seit dem Jahr 1978 verzeichnete die chinesische Wirtschaft seit mehr als vier Jahrzehnten ein starkes Wirtschaftswachstum, das oft sogar als Wachstumswunder bezeichnet wurde. Die Lokalregierungen der chinesischen Provinzen spielten eine entscheidende Rolle bei der Umsetzung der ehrgeizigen Entwicklungsziele der Zentralregierung. Besonders während der Wirtschaftskrisen waren die Lokalregierungen dafür verantwortlich, durch massive monetäre und fiskalische Anreize das Wirtschaftswachstum voranzutreiben - mit Erfolg. Sie steuerten die chinesische Wirtschaft durch die asiatische Finanzkrise Ende der 1990er Jahre und die Weltfinanzkrise Ende der 2000er Jahre. Gegen wirtschaftliche Abschwünge setzten die chinesische Führung und die lokalen Regierungen stark auf öffentliche und industrielle Infrastrukturprojekte sowie auf den boomenden Immobiliensektor. Das Wachstumswunder war dabei in hohem Maße schuldenfinanziert. Bis Ende 2024 erreichte die Schuldenstandsquote der chinesischen Wirtschaft die schwindelerregende Höhe von 290 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Als problematisch erwiesen sich vor allem die von den Lokalregierungen angehäuften Schulden. Neben den offiziellen Schulden nutzen sie lange sogenannte Local Government Financing Vehicles(LGFVs), um zusätzliche Schulden abseits ihrer öffentlichen Haushalte machen zu können. Seit dem chinesischen Haushaltsgesetz von 1994 und den begleitenden Reformen des Steuersystems wurde der finanzielle Spielraum der Lokalregierungen für ihre umfangreichen öffentlichen Ausgaben stark eingeschränkt. Die Gesetzgebung begrenzte die Steuereinnahmen der Lokalregierungen und verbot ihnen, Anleihen auszugeben und sich zu verschulden. Daher führten die Lokalregierungen LGFVs ein, die es ihnen ermöglichten, ihre öffentlichen Ausgaben außerhalb ihrer offiziellen Bilanzen zu finanzieren. Die Zahl der LGFVs und deren Schulden stiegen seit der Weltfinanzkrise stark an. Die Coronapandemie brachte das schuldengetriebene chinesische Wachstumsmodell an seine Grenzen und offenbarte die Anfälligkeit des LGFV-Systems. Das Konsumentenvertrauen und der private Konsum erodierten, der Immobiliensektor implodierte und die Einnahmen aus Grundstücksverkäufen für die Lokalregierungen brachen ein. Damit brach das finanzielle Rückgrat der LGFVs samt zugehöriger Schulden. Angesichts des Ausmaßes der offiziellen und der impliziten Verschuldung der Lokalregierungen mehrten sich die Sorgen um die finanzielle Stabilität Chinas. Bis Ende 2024 erreichten die offiziellen Schulden der Lokalregierungen fast 48 Billionen RMB und die Schulden der LGFVs wurden auf über 60 Billionen RMB geschätzt. Die derzeitige Schuldenkrise der Lokalregierungen ist das Erbe eines in Teilen gescheiterten Wachstumsmodells, das zu stark auf Investitionen konzentriert war. China braucht ein ausgewogeneres Wachstumsmodell mit einer stärkeren Rolle des privaten Binnenkonsums. Zunächst muss die chinesische Führung die Risiken für die Finanzstabilität, die von der Verschuldung der Lokalregierungen und insbesondere der LGFVs ausgehen, in den in den Blick nehmen. In naher Zukunft muss sie dann die Weichen für eine Neuausrichtung des Wachstumsmodells stellen. Hierfür braucht es Strukturreformen, die beispielsweise die Abdeckung und den Umfang der öffentlichen Sozialleistungen verbessern, wie etwa eine schrittweise Liberalisierung des hukouSystems und eine soziale Grundabsicherung. Unter den weiteren Maßnahmen könnte eine verbesserte Bereitstellung von Finanzinstrumenten für die private Absicherung sein. |
| JEL: | H60 H63 H70 H74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:321884 |
| By: | Eric A. Hanushek; Le Kang; Xueying Li; Lei Zhang |
| Abstract: | The changing pattern of quality in China’s rural schools across time and province is extracted from the differential labor market earnings of rural migrant workers. Variations in rates of return to years of schooling across migrant workers working in the same urban labor market but having different sites of basic education provide for direct estimation of provincial school quality. Corroborating this approach, these school quality estimates prove to be highly correlated with provincial cognitive skill test scores for the same demographic group. Returns to quality increase with economic development level of destination cities. Importantly, quality appears higher and provincial variation appears lower for younger cohorts, indicating at least partial effectiveness of more recent policies aimed at improving rural school quality across provinces. Surprisingly, however, provincial variations in quality are uncorrelated with teacher-student ratio or per student spending. |
| Keywords: | school quality, migration, China |
| JEL: | I25 J6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12017 |
| By: | Alorro, Mary Franchesca Santillan; Cristobal, Ben Hur M.; Lim, Elaine Rose B.; Padua, Gerald F.; Del Rosario, Daracel C.; Pangan, Sheba Erech D.; Lopez, Dashielle July A.; Mendoza, Karl Patrick Regala (Polytechnic University of the Philippines) |
| Abstract: | Mainstream portrayals of Tondo, Manila, in Philippine media often depict the district as a site of danger, disorder, and decay, reducing a vibrant urban community to a symbol of poverty and criminality. This article interrogates the disjuncture between these dominant representations and the lived experiences of Tondo residents. Drawing on discourse analysis of documentaries, news reports, and vlogs, alongside in-depth interviews with 15 residents, the study reveals how media framings selectively amplify hardship while silencing everyday resilience, solidarity, and care. Based on Stuart Hall’s encoding/decoding model, Vygotsky’s social constructionism, and Bourdieu’s theory of symbolic capital, the analysis highlights how residents actively challenge and reshape the stories told about them. The article advances the concept of representational justice as both an ethical imperative and an analytical lens, emphasizing that representation is not merely about visibility but about narrative power. The findings point to the need for more participatory, dignity-based storytelling about urban poverty in the Global South and greater accountability to the communities whose lives are often misrepresented. |
| Date: | 2025–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:36dzw_v1 |
| By: | Atsushi INOUE; Ryuichi TANAKA |
| Abstract: | Currently, the proportion of female students in economics and business faculties at four-year universities in Japan remains at about 30%. This paper analyzes the determinants of the gender gap in choice of majors, focusing on enrollment in economics and business programs at four-year universities in Japan. Given the strong emphasis on mathematical skills required in these disciplines, they may be regarded as “science-oriented†fields within the broader category of humanities and social sciences. This study investigates whether the underrepresentation of women in economics and business programs shares structural similarities with the gender imbalance observed in STEM majors. Using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Newborns in the 21st Century (2001 cohort), we compare the determinants of choosing a STEM major to those of choosing an economics or business major among university entrants. Results indicate that a common positive determinant for both STEM and economics/business major selection is proficiency in mathematics during the first year of high school, while proficiency in the Japanese language is negatively associated with choosing these majors. However, clear differences emerge in terms of career aspirations: having clear occupational aspirations in the first year of high school is positively correlated with STEM major selection but negatively correlated with economics/business major selection. Further, using the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method to analyze determinants of gender gaps, we find that 49% of the gender gap in STEM enrollment can be explained by observable characteristics, such as subject aptitude. In contrast, only 14% of the gender gap among humanities students choosing economics/business majors can be attributed to such observable factors. These findings suggest that the majority of the gender gap in economics and business major selection is driven by factors other than observable attributes. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25018 |
| By: | AHAMED, RAIHAN; , Ferdaus Hasan |
| Abstract: | Introduction Nearly half of the workforce worldwide is women, still they have less participation at work compared to men. Women from marginalized communities, especially in slum areas, face deprivation of basic needs and limited access to the workforce. At work, they are restricted to low-paying, insecure jobs, have extensive working hours and no health or financial benefits. This study aimed to understand the factors that influence slum women in the workforce in Bangladesh. Methods This was a cross-sectional study. A purposive sampling technique was used to collect primary data using a semi-structured questionnaire from slums in the Mymensingh district. Around 400 primary data were collected for this study. Chi-square and Binary logistic regression analysis were used to determine the associated factors that influence female labor participation. Results The result showed that around (33%) of females participate in work and (67%) do not. Almost 78.03% of women earned 5000tk or less per month. 89.39% of women agreed that they earn insufficient money. Chi-square analysis showed a significant association with age (p<0.001), respondent’s education (0.002), and husband's education (p<0.002). Binary logistic regression revealed that Females aged 25-34 years have 3.24 times higher odds of working (CI: 1.95 to 5.38, p < 0.001) compared to those aged 15-24 years. Female-headed households showed 3.45 times higher odds of working (OR: 3.45, CI: 1.57 to 7.61, p = 0.002) compared to male-headed households. Conclusions This study examines the determinants of women's employment in Bangladeshi slum communities and offers an insightful analysis of why women face challenges in accessing employment in such environments. Necessary steps from the government should be taken, and a collaborative approach (both govt. and private) is also necessary to improve female labor force participation and protection of their human rights. Keywords: Slum, Socio-demographic Factors, LFPR, Odds ratio, LMIC |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w9s7e_v1 |
| By: | Soumita Roy; Md Muntasir Kamal Dihan; Tasnimah Haque; Nafisa Nomani; Sadia Islam Preety |
| Abstract: | Purpose With an emphasis on elements like financial knowledge, financial attitude, social influence, financial self-efficacy, and financial management practices, this study explores the factors that influence employees' saving behavior in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We also welcome others to work on saving behavior, which is the main reason for publishing. The purpose is to make others aware of the methods for quantitative financial behavior analysis in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional survey design. Data was collected from 40 participants through a structured questionnaire adapted from reliable sources. The questionnaire captured demographic information and used established items to measure the key variables. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, reliability analysis using Cronbachs alpha, and regression analysis to test the hypothesized relationships. Findings The results indicate that among the factors examined, only financial management practices had a significant positive relationship with saving behavior. Rest of the factors did not show significant relationships with saving behavior in this study sample. Limitation or Disclaimer It is still a work in progress, this paper is meant for pre-print with mostly incomplete and limited data. No data cleaning was performed, so it is very likely to include outliers and faulty data. Originality or value This study contributes to the limited research on saving behavior determinants in the Bangladeshi context, specifically among employees in the capital city of Dhaka. It explores the influence of multiple factors, including the rarely studied aspect of social influence. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.21254 |
| By: | Akifumi Kusano (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University; Waseda Institute of Social and Human Capital Studies (WISH), Tokyo, Japan); Haruko Noguchi (Faculty of School of Political Science and Economics, Tokyo, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan); Yichen Shen (Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan; WISH, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | The maternity ward closures are observing across many countries, yet little known about how the closures affect obstetrician behavior and delivery practices. The unique institutional setting in Japan, exclusion of natural delivery from public health insurance, creates a unique institutional setting for analyzing physician’s delivery practices. This study analyzes the effect of hospital-based maternity ward closures on cesarean section practice and health outcomes. Using the Survey of Medical Institutions and Vital Statistics and employing a staggered difference-in-differences, we show that clinics increased the rate of cesarean section regardless of risk-factors of cesarean delivery. Moreover, this result was driven by private clinics. We interpret this result as evidence of overuse of cesarean sections that was caused by physician’s profit-maximizing behavior. Our findings imply that the expansion of insurance coverage for delivery care can mitigate this unintended effect. |
| Keywords: | Cesarean delivery, Physician-induced demand, Maternity ward closure |
| JEL: | I13 I18 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2520 |
| By: | Zehao Lin; Ying Liu; Congrong Pan; Lutz Sager |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of air pollution on sentiment using social media data from a panel of Japanese cities. To address concerns about potential endogeneity from unobserved simultaneous determinants of air pollution and sentiment, as well as measurement error, we instrument for air pollution using plausibly exogenous variation in atmospheric wind patterns. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in fine (PM2.5) and small (PM10) particle concentrations reduces overall sentiment by 0.79% and 1.64% standard deviation respectively, which is composed of a more pronounced increase in negative sentiment and a smaller decrease in positive sentiment. Our unique dataset allows us to separately estimate effects on negative sentiment categories including anger, anxiety, and sadness. Our results suggest sentiment as one candidate mechanism, besides physiological and cognitive pathways, to explain the increasingly evident non-health damages from air pollution exposure on work productivity, road safety, sleep and crime. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, Twitter, sentiment, Japan |
| JEL: | I31 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12030 |
| By: | Soonhyung Sim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Under the second presidency of Donald Trump, the United States has been increasingly resorting to security cooperation as a tool to advance US economic interests, reflecting a broader strategic shift in the way it uses security guarantees as economic leverage.<p> - In response, US allies such as member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have accelerated their rearmament efforts and moved to reduce their security dependence on Washington. This wave of rearmament among NATO countries is expected to create short-term opportunities for South Korean defense firms. - However, over the longer term, these benefits may taper off as NATO nations build out their own defense supply chains and deepen intra-alliance cooperation.<p> At the same time, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which ties promises of economic and security cooperation to arms sales, is likely to intensify competition in the global defense market. His push to establish a US-centered defense ecosystem raises concerns that the current Korea-US defense cooperation framework could be sidelined.<p> - The US continues to pressure Seoul to pay more for hosting US troops in Korea; increased costs could lead to delays in joint projects and hinder the qualitative advancement and export sophistication of Korea’s defense industry.<p> In response, it is essential to swiftly establish lasting cooperation institutions, such as a reciprocal defense procurement agreement (RDP-A), to reinforce Korea-US defense cooperation and identify strategic leverage points, particularly in relation to urgent US supply chain needs.<p> - For example, naval MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) cooperation could be used as a counterbalance in cost-sharing negotiations and a catalyst for concluding the RDP-A. - A government-wide export support system should also be established to enhance Korea’s competitive edge in key regions such as Europe and the Middle East |
| Keywords: | US tariffs; defense; defense industry; weapons manufacturing; arms manufacturing; defense exports; w |
| JEL: | F52 F51 F13 F20 |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:021439 |
| By: | Faruque Ahamed; Md Ataur Rahman Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | This study constructs an Aggregate Financial Stability Index (AFSI) for Bangladesh to evaluate the systemic health and resilience of the countrys financial system during the period from 2016 to 2024. The index incorporates 19 macrofinancial indicators across four key sectors Real Sector, Financial and Monetary Sector, Fiscal Sector and External Sector. Using a normalized scoring approach and equal weighting scheme, sub-indices were aggregated to form a comprehensive measure of financial stability. The findings indicate that while the Real and Fiscal sectors demonstrated modest improvements in FY2024, overall financial stability deteriorated, largely due to poor performance in the Financial and Monetary Sector and continued weakness in the External Sector. Key stress indicators include rising non-performing loans, declining capital adequacy ratios, weak capital market performance, growing external debt, and shrinking foreign exchange reserves. The study highlights the interconnectedness of macro-financial sectors and the urgent need for structural reforms, stronger regulatory oversight, and enhanced macroprudential policy coordination. The AFSI framework developed in this paper offers an early warning tool for policymakers and contributes to the literature on financial stability measurement in emerging economies. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.20340 |
| By: | Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Aayush Poudel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment) |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at those interested to know about the Nepali economy; economic ties between Australia and Nepal; the economic significance of the ties for the two countries; and the prospects and challenges in advancing the relationship. It dissects the Nepal-Australia economic relationship, covering goods, services, migration and remittances, and investment. It describes the trends and patterns in these areas, and identifies broad potential and opportunities as well as challenges and constraints. |
| Keywords: | Nepal-Australia trade, investment, migration, remittances |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F21 F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:rpaper:rp/24/01 |
| By: | Sen, Topon; Azam, Munno |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a thorough investigation of the economic and social dynamics that have shaped Bangladesh's transition from a pre-independence stagnation and post-conflict economic fragility to its emergence as a resilient and increasingly prosperous South Asian nation. The country’s progression from a war-torn least-developed economy toward potential upper-middle-income status serves as a compelling example of developmental transformation. This analysis focuses on macroeconomic reforms, trade and investment policies, technological innovation in agriculture, and the stabilizing effect of remittance flows. From a socio-economic perspective, it evaluates demographic change, education, health outcomes, gender relations, and the implications of accelerated urbanization. The paper also critically examines enduring challenges—namely poverty, inequality, environmental risks, and governance shortfalls—while emphasizing the importance of technology-driven development. Through this comprehensive assessment, the study highlights the foundational policies that have driven Bangladesh’s economic ascent and offers strategic insights for ensuring its future sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh; Macroeconomics; Development; Sustainability; Trade; History |
| JEL: | D0 E0 F0 G0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125276 |
| By: | Kyoung You Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The second administration of US President Donald Trump is expected to impose a steep 25 percenttariff on imported automobiles and auto parts under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, in keeping with its protectionist approach.<p> - The high-tariff policy is aimed at encouraging more investment in US-based production and strengthening the competitiveness of the entire US automotive value chain.<p> Given the South Korean auto industry’s heavy reliance on the US market, such high tariffs are expected to have far-reaching effects, necessitating adjustments to export and production strategies targeting North America.<p> - Automakers are likely to increase local production in the US in order to offset the decline in exports, even as higher vehicle prices in the American market are expected to dampen demand, further reducing export volumes. - A large volume of vehicles destined for the US market are manufactured in the Korean city of Ulsan. USbound exports make up about 30 percent of all Ulsan-made auto exports, showing that the city’s automobile industry benefits from the US market but is not overwhelmingly reliant on it, making it somewhat shielded from the full impact of the tariffs. In contrast, the automotive industry in the Korean province of South Gyeongsang, which is more reliant on exports to the US, is likely to face greater disruption.<p> The auto parts industry faces both direct and indirect challenges, including: the immediate impact of higher tariffs, a drop in demand caused by reduced auto production in Korea, and growing pressure from automakers to lower parts prices as they try to pass on the tariff burden down the supply chain.<p> - US-based manufacturers do not yet source parts extensively from domestic parts suppliers. As a result, rising production costs are likely to erode profitability and lead to higher retail prices.<p> The US auto market is expected to undergo significant changes as demand declines due to higher vehicle prices. The marketis slowly exhibiting a growing preference for smaller vehicles, and demand for aftermarket parts is growing as used car sales rise amid longer vehicle lifespans.<p> - Growing demand for small cars could present an opportunity for Korean manufacturers, who have a competitive edge in this segment. However, Korean automakers produce few of their smaller medals in the US; this may restrict any potential gains to be had in this segment.<p> - An increase in demand for aftermarket parts may also create opportunities for Korean suppliers to replace Chinese parts in the aftermarket space. |
| Keywords: | US tariffs; Trump; Trump tariffs; US-Korea trade; automotive industry; auto industry; auto exports; |
| JEL: | L62 F23 F52 |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:021440 |
| By: | Van Even, Priscilla (KU Leuven); Wang, Huize (Zhejiang University); Wang, Kexin; Fang, Yu; Bibert, Niels (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Museums are more than repositories of cultural treasures; they actively collect, preserve, and exhibit cultural heritage for local and global audiences, reflecting shared values and serving as important institutes for cross-cultural exchange. Within this chapter, we will explore “中国历代 绘画大系”, A Comprehensive Collection of Ancient Chinese Paintings, an impressive printed series of Chinese artworks dedicated to preserving and presenting ancient Chinese cultural heritage in all of its glory. This unprecedented collection, along with its curation and communication, emerged through intensive global exchanges, cross-cultural dialogues, interdisciplinary collaborations, and technological innovation, positioning it as an exemplary case for museums of the future. The Collection has been documented in an encyclopedic multi-volume book series, which has been donated to universities worldwide, and it has also been exhibited in museums both within and beyond China, communicated through digital media platforms, and has even inspired the creation of a dedicated Collection Hall complex building, “中国历代绘画大系典藏馆” , at the Yuhang District in Hangzhou. Within this chapter, we approach this collection through two complementary disciplinary lenses. First, from an art historical perspective, we trace the story of the collection’s formation, the challenges of gathering and preserving Chinese paintings dispersed across global institutions, and the essential role of digital mediation in this process. Second, from the fields of media studies and communication sciences, we examine the establishment of the Collection Hall by Yuhang Municipal Government and Zhejiang University, and its innovative use of technology and spatial design to curate and communicate art across cultural and geographic borders in and beyond the museum. Together, these perspectives reveal how museums can evolve into dynamic, digitally mediated spaces for cultural dialogue and heritage preservation in a globalized world. Keywords – Chinese paintings, cultural heritage, preservation, art communication, cross-cultural collaboration, digital mediation, interdisciplinarity |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kh3c8_v1 |
| By: | Suvangi Rath (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Tanay Suntwal (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | India's agricultural trade with the Middle East is a crucial component of its export portfolio, influenced by evolving trade agreements and strong bilateral cooperation. The Middle-East nations—UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran—rely heavily on food imports, making them key markets for Indian agricultural products. India exports a diverse range of commodities, including Basmati rice, sugar, spices, marine products, fresh fruits, and processed foods. The UAE, a major importer, received agricultural exports worth USD 2.63 billion in 2021-22, marking a significant increase. Trade agreements, particularly the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2022, have strengthened India-Middle East trade, reduced tariffs and easing market access. CEPA aims to boost trade in goods and services, supporting agriculture as a priority sector. Initiatives like the India-Middle East Food Corridor further enhance supply chains and food security. Challenges persist, including non-tariff barriers such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations and technical trade barriers (TBT). This report provides a comprehensive examination of the factors shaping agricultural trade between India and the Middle East, identifying strategies to enhance export competitiveness and promote mutually beneficial trade partnerships. The report suggests that addressing these concerns through improved product standards, enhanced logistics, and agritech collaboration can help Indian exporters. With robust diplomatic ties and growing investments, India can seek to optimise its agricultural trade with the Middle East, leveraging economic corridors and strategic trade policies for mutual growth. |
| Keywords: | trade policies, Middle-East, agriculture, bilateral trade, icrier, UAE |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-16 |
| By: | C S Mohapatra (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Manu Prathap (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Depannita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Unclaimed property (UP), including dormant financial and tangible assets, remains an overlooked area in global financial systems due to weak enforcement, fragmented regulations, and low public awareness. However, its growing volume and economic implications have prompted many countries to reform legal frameworks to enhance transparency and recovery. This cross-country study investigates the administrative and legal structures governing UP across selected systemically important jurisdictions, including India, the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and emerging economies. The research examines dormancy periods, statutory provisions, post-dormancy procedures, and claim settlement processes, revealing a stark contrast between centralised, digital frameworks in developed economies and fragmented, often manual systems in developing ones. Unclaimed assets represent significant idle capital, which if reintegrated, could boost economic productivity and individual financial well-being. The study highlights the urgent need for harmonised legal standards, proactive due diligence, digital claim infrastructure, and targeted awareness campaigns. These steps are essential not only for efficient asset recovery but also for reducing financial opacity, improving institutional accountability, and fostering inclusive economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Dormancy Period, Escheatment, Financial Regulation, Claim Settlement, Digital Infrastructure, Institutional Framework, Financial Inclusion, Asset Recovery, Public Finance. |
| JEL: | G18 G21 K23 H55 O57 H26 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:184 |
| By: | Karsten Mau; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu; Yawen Zheng |
| Abstract: | We evaluate how access to international transport infrastructure promotes trade and economic development. Exploiting the gradual unfolding of transcontinental rail freight connections between China and Europe, our empirical findings indicate increasing exports from connected cities, with positive spillovers to neighboring cities and other indicators economic activity. Not all products and cities are equally responsive to new rail export opportunities. We set up a multi-sector heterogeneous firms model with a rich specification of trade costs, in which firms optimize trade costs by choosing alternative transportation modes and routes. Leveraging a unique data set on trade flows between Chinese cities, we calibrate our model to discuss local welfare effects, relying on sufficient statistics that quantify changes in city-level trade costs. We also highlight significant spatial distributional effects of trade infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure, trade, regional development, China |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12027 |
| By: | Ajay Mahal (NCAER and University of Melbourne); Sumit Kane (NCAER and University of Melbourne); Arun Tiwari (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, India) |
| Abstract: | Despite recent expansion in its population covered by public-funded insurance, a large section of India’s population remains at major financial risk from health shocks. This segment of population, sometimes referred to as the “missing middle, †typically consists of population groups that are, or have been, engaged in informal sector work, and are not poor enough to benefit from state subsidized contributions to insurance premiums. We estimate that the missing middle number at least 300-350 million in India, with large variations in their economic circumstances. Using extensive international and Indiabased evidence, we assess two approaches to cover the missing middle: an expansion in public sector health delivery and a contributory demand-side financing system, that is currently popular in India. We conclude that a mix of the two approaches appears to be the most feasible in the short-run, given limited regulatory capacity and resource constraints, with a longer-run emphasis on integrated systems. Moreover, this approach is also likely to help address the problem of shallow coverage of existing health insurance coverage that concerns large numbers of people extending beyond the group comprising the missing middle. |
| Keywords: | India, health financing, missing middle, insurance |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:162 |
| By: | Badola, Shivani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, rising household consumption expenditure on intoxicants, particularly on tobacco, tobacco products and alcoholic beverages, poses serious concerns for public health in India. The consumption of intoxicants is associated with negative externalities to society in terms of morbidity and mortality. It also undermines the national objective of poverty alleviation for individuals already at the lower end of the socio-economic strata. Understanding the prevalence of consumption of intoxicants across states, regions (rural versus urban), and fractile classes helps to identify high-risk groups and regions. Analysis of compositional changes in the consumption of intoxicants is crucial for identifying the effectiveness of existing taxation policies and regulations. We analyse the temporal and spatial variations in the consumption of intoxicants between 2011-12 and 2022-23. The study's findings indicate an increasing preference for alcoholic beverages, particularly among higher-fractile classes in both rural and urban areas. Likewise, there has been a growing preference for chewing tobacco and cigarettes among the low and middle fractile classes, particularly in rural areas. Higher taxes may make these products less affordable and discourage consumption, particularly among price-sensitive consumers. However, the effectiveness of the taxation policy also depends on the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticity of demand. Moreover, the availability of alternative supplies (other than those from formal sources) renders the taxation and regulation policies inefficient. |
| Keywords: | Monthly Per Capita Expenditure ; Intoxicant Products ; Rural-Urban Divide ; India |
| JEL: | D12 H22 H31 L66 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/432 |
| By: | Mookerjee, Mehreen; Ojha, Manini |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of women's control over resources on their relative decision-making power within households, using an Instrumental Variable approach. We construct a composite Resource Empowerment Index that captures women's access to and control over economic and informational resources, including money, bank accounts, mobile phones, and knowledge of financial tools. To identify causal effects, we exploit variation in neighbouring women's media exposure as a source of exogenous influence on an individual woman's REI. We find robust positive effects of greater resource empowerment on women's relative say in household decisions, with evidence of diminishing marginal returns at higher levels of autonomy. We also find significant heterogeneity with large effects for older women, unemployed women, women in rural areas, those in larger households, those with less educated husbands and those with no children or more daughters. |
| Keywords: | Resource empowerment, ownership, relative decision-making, media exposure, instrumental variable, India |
| JEL: | J12 J13 D13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1641 |
| By: | Kenta Yamamoto (Bank of Japan); Tomohiro Okubo (Bank of Japan); Nobuhiro Abe (Bank of Japan); Yukio Minoura (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the rising share of NBFIs (Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries) in the global financial system has been accompanied by an increase in the presence of foreign open-end funds in Japan's financial markets. This paper first documents the fund flows into equity, bond, and real estate open-end funds investing in Japanese financial assets, as well as their buying and selling behavior, using granular data sets. Similar to the findings by existing studies, we find there are significant outflows from foreign open-end funds investing in Japanese financial assets occurred during events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during episodes of rising policy interest rates abroad. These funds sell their assets, including their Japanese assets, in response to redemption requests. Next, we estimate the sensitivity of asset prices in Japan's stock and REIT markets to asset sales by market participants to understand the impact of trading by foreign open-end funds on Japan's financial markets. The estimated sensitivity is statistically significantly positive and its magnitude is found to be close to estimates for the United States reported in the literature. These findings together imply that outflows from foreign open-end funds could affect asset prices in Japan’s financial markets through asset sales during periods of stress originating abroad or when uncertainty in domestic financial markets rises. |
| Keywords: | global investment funds, NBFIs, fund flows, price impact |
| JEL: | G01 G11 G12 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e08 |
| By: | Xiqian Cai (Xiamen University); Pei Li (Zhejiang University); Qinyue Luo (RFBerlin); Hong Song (Fudan University); Huihua Xie (Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | Does gender identity affect judicial decisions? This paper provides novel evidence of in-group gender bias in the judicial decisions for almost all divorce cases in China. Exploiting the effectively random assignment of cases to judges, the analysis finds that female judges are 1.2 percentage points more likely to grant divorce petitions filed by female plaintiffs compared to male plaintiffs, relative to male judges. This bias primarily reflects female judges’ harsher treatment of male plaintiffs. The bias is significantly weaker in regions with stronger traditional gender norms, indicating that conservative cultural attitudes may constrain overt displays of in-group gender favoritism. Institutional legal development has little moderating effect, underscoring the primary role of culture. These findings highlight the importance of complementing efforts to promote judicial diversity with safeguards to detect and mitigate implicit bias. |
| Keywords: | gender, in-group bias, gender discrimination, judicial decisions |
| JEL: | J16 J14 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2523 |
| By: | Jadhav, Vivek (Institute of Management Technology); Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Taxation affects the prices of commodities and influences consumer behaviour. Increasing taxes on intoxicants are expected to discourage consumption. However, the price elasticity of demand for intoxicants is often low compared to standard (normal) goods. Since the distortionary impacts of taxation on intoxicants are low (in terms of deadweight losses) compared to standard goods, higher taxes are applied to intoxicants. The effect of taxes on intoxicants in terms of price changes also depends on the shifting of the tax burden to consumers. Taxation as a tool to alter prices and, consequently, consumer behaviour becomes less effective when informal supplies of intoxicants (e.g., spurious, untaxed, contraband, smuggled, locally made alternatives) exist in the market. Assessing the price elasticity of demand for alcoholic beverages is the first step in understanding the effectiveness of alcohol taxation policies in India. In this paper, we estimate the own price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for foreign liquor (also known as Indian-made foreign liquor) and beer. We examine substitutions across beverage types and consider informal and unregulated supply channels. This study also differentiates between the price sensitivity of poorer households and more affluent ones. Using nationally representative household data for 2022-23 and 2023-24, we find that the own-price elasticity of demand for beer and foreign liquor ranges from -0.27 to -0.17, indicating moderate responsiveness to price changes. Elasticity estimates based on total MPCE range from 0.42 to 0.80, suggesting that increased household expenditure correlates with higher consumption. Substitution effects with country liquor were significant in 2022-23 but diminished in 2023-24. These findings provide timely evidence to inform alcohol taxation policies in India and highlight the need for targeted strategies that consider income groups, price sensitivity, and changing substitution patterns. The implications are substantial, raising questions about the effectiveness of current alcohol taxation measures and encouraging discussion on potential improvements. |
| Keywords: | Price elasticity ; cross-price elasticity ; income elasticity ; alcoholic beverages ; consumption expenditure ; India |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H31 I18 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/431 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Trishali Khanna (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Latika Khatwani |
| Abstract: | India, the world's most populous country, suffers from widespread micronutrient deficiencies, with Vitamin D deficiency emerging as a silent epidemic. It affects individuals across all age groups, income groups and professions, from children, sportspersons, and outdoor workers to healthcare workers, leading to severe health conditions such as rickets in children and osteoporosis in adults. Beyond its health impacts, it threatens national productivity, diminishes workforce efficiency, and contributes to rising healthcare costs.Given this, the objective of the study is to create a roadmap to eradicate Vitamin D deficiency and help India achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) 2030, particularly SDG 3 of good health and well-being, and SDG 2.2, of eradicating all forms of malnutrition by 2030. The study is based on secondary data and information analysis, systematic and meta-analysis of literature, key informant interviews (KIIs) and a stakeholder consultation. |
| Keywords: | Vitamin D, Vitamin Deficiency, SDG, UNSDG, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-11 |
| By: | Monique Newiak (Inclusion and Gender Unit, International Monetary Fund); Ratna Sahay (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India)); Navya Srivastava (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India)) |
| Abstract: | Domestic violence is a global phenomenon. We study the interplay of determinants of a woman’s risk of facing intimate partner violence (IPV) for the case of India—using information from up to 235 thousand female survey respondents and exploiting state-level variation in institutions, law enforcement and attitudes. Unless in paid and formal employment, a woman’s economic activity is associated with a higher risk of IPV. However, household and other characteristics, such as higher agency within the household, higher education of the husband, lower social acceptance of IPV, and normalization of reporting incidences of violence counter this association. At the state level, the presence of more female leaders, better reporting infrastructure for victims of IPV, and higher charge-sheeting rates are associated with a lower risk of IPV |
| Keywords: | Female employment, labor force participation, intimate partner violence, legal rights, institutions |
| JEL: | J01 J16 K14 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:177 |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit; Shankar, Binay |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a large-scale rural road construction program-the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)-on the performance of rural manufacturing firms in India. While these firms provide vital non-farm employment in rural areas, their growth is often thought to be constrained by inadequate infrastructure. Leveraging administrative data and the quasi-random rollout of the program, we estimate effects using a two-way fixed effects framework. We find no evidence that improved road connectivity affects turnover, profits, or employment for formal enterprises. In contrast, informal firms experience significant gains in turnover, expenditure, profits, employment, and wage bills. These effects appear to be driven by reductions in infrastructure-related constraints: treated firms report fewer operational problems and less competition from larger firms, particularly in marketing and distribution. Our findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of rural infrastructure expansion and the greater responsiveness of informal enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Firms, India, Infrastructure, Roads, Rural |
| JEL: | D22 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1650 |
| By: | Hajimi, Cokumo (Teyvat Nailoong University) |
| Abstract: | As the wave of digital civilization reshapes the global development paradigm, the integration of culture and technology is emerging as a new key to solving the challenge of regional coordination. This paper takes the phenomenal open-world game "Genshin Impact" as the research object, pioneeringly constructs a theoretical framework of "virtual-reality" bidirectional empowerment, and empirically tests the empowerment mechanism of Genshin Impact on common prosperity. The study finds that Genshin Impact drives the development of regional common prosperity through three intermediary channels, achieving a qualitative leap in efficiency: activating regional innovation level enhancement through an innovative network akin to the "Sumeru Wisdom Sharing System", realizing industrial structure upgrading through the upgrading effect of "Stratovolcano Industrial Transformation", and cultivating innovative consciousness and enhancing regional innovation activity through the entrepreneurial ecosystem of the "Liyue Commerce Ecology". Spatial heterogeneity analysis reveals that its effectiveness exhibits a "geographical energy gradient distribution" characteristic, with the eastern region benefiting from the resonance of digital infrastructure endowment and market response efficiency, the western region relying on the latecomer advantage of resource digital transformation for improvement, and the central region's role not yet evident. Furthermore, the temporary negative correlation in the northeast resembles the suppression of elemental reactions by the "icy environment of the Winter Nation - Snezhnaya ", profoundly demonstrating the threshold effect of regional institutional adaptability. The innovation of this study lies in translating game narratives such as "Contract Spirit" and "Grass God Think Tank" into operational economic governance language, empirically responding to the strategic deployment of "improving the modern cultural industry system" proposed at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The policy implications emphasize the need to break down " Enkanomiya-style" administrative barriers and build "Jade Chamber-style " regional growth poles, so that the integration of culture and technology can truly become a new fulcrum for coordinated development in a "seven nations resonate" manner, just as Zhongli's adage goes: "Although the rock remains unmoved, the rock patterns eventually connect - only the coexistence of all things can form an inexhaustible flow." |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dfzmh_v2 |
| By: | Paul Stainier; Manisha Shah; Alan Barreca |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of temperature during the growing season on household diets in the subsequent year in rural India, a setting with a high prevalence of small family farms. High growing season temperatures reduce crop yields, which would presumably reduce incomes and home-grown food for consumption. However, household adaptation could mitigate how the reductions in yields affect diets. We find that heat increases the number of strongly undernourished households in the subsequent year, as measured by the consumption of calories, iron, zinc, thiamine, and niacin. We also find suggestive evidence that households adapt to heat-induced losses of home-grown crops by purchasing more food. |
| JEL: | O13 Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34047 |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Bhattacharya, Leena; Ayyagari, Padmaja |
| Abstract: | Previous research, focusing primarily on high income countries, has linked later sunsets to sleep deficits and worse health outcomes. These results might not generalize to low- and middle- income countries, which have different socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental conditions. Using data from the 2015-16 and 2019-21 waves of India's Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and exploiting within-district variation in annual average sunset times, we estimate the causal impact of later sunsets on the long-term health outcomes of individuals. We find that later sunsets leads to a lower prevalence of anemia, diabetes, and thyroid disorders and an improvement in the overall health index. To explore mechanisms, we analyze variation in time allocation due to a later sunset time using the 2019 Time Use Survey. We find that individuals experiencing later sunsets sleep better and exercise more, but do not change their sedentary leisure activities. Additionally, they consume healthier food and increase labor supply. These lifestyle changes may explain the health improvements associated with delayed sunsets in India. |
| Keywords: | health, sunset time, time use, lifestyle, fixed effects |
| JEL: | J22 I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1648 |
| By: | Gupta, Mehul; Kannan, Smruthi Bala; Bhalla, Kavi; Goel, Rahul |
| Abstract: | What are the primary policy and economic barriers to e-bicycle adoption in Delhi, India? In cities in India, individual private mobility is dominated by motorized two-wheelers, with a policy push towards large shifts to electric mobility and, therefore, a sustainable shift in transportation. E-bicycles are at the margins of electric mobility policy and have an ambiguous presence in the policy documents. This paper explores the unique possibilities and challenges that e-bicycles pose in urban India through exploratory qualitative research interviews with current e-bicycle users and retailers in Delhi and other stakeholders such as manufacturers and a policy analyst in Delhi, India. We begin the paper by describing how e-bicycles are defined in the Indian scenario and their place within a spectrum of two-wheelers. Following a description of the research methodology, the paper explores the affordability of e-bicycles, how current taxation and subsidy regimes shape e-bicycle retail, the interviewee’s reflections regarding the safety concerns of using e-bicycles on the city’s roads, its physical health and accessibility benefits, and convenience of charging and repair. We conclude with a discussion on the need for a targeted policy to encourage the adoption of e-bicycles for gains toward reduction in speeds and emissions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rfeuv_v1 |
| By: | Ritika Juneja (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sulakshana Rao (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | Despite being a leading producer of bananas, mangoes, and potatoes, India exports only a small share of its output, highlighting a critical gap between production and export performance. This joint report by APEDA and ICRIER presents an actionable roadmap to boost India’s horticulture exports by focusing on bananas, mangoes (and pulp), and potatoes (and value-added products). It analyzes global competitiveness, benchmarks best practices, and outlines strategies including export hub development, logistics upgrades, market access, branding, and value-chain integraion . The study aims to position India as a key player in global high-value agri-trade and support the USD 100 billion agri-export goal by 2030. |
| Keywords: | Agri-trade, Agri-export, Mango, Banana, potato, APEDA, icrier, value-chain, agriculture |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-18 |
| By: | Kaiji Chen; Yiqing Xiao; Tao Zha |
| Abstract: | We examine how interbank wholesale funding shapes the transmission of interest-rate-based monetary policy in China and contributes to systemic risk. Using a bank-level quarterly panel dataset and an estimated policy rule for the 7-day repo rate, we find that access to wholesale funding amplifies the transmission of monetary policy easing to lending by non-state banks, but also heightens their vulnerability to systemic risk during economic downturns. Since 2018, non-state banks with greater reliance on wholesale funding have experienced larger increases in expected capital shortfalls. To interpret these findings, we develop a structural model that incorporates a dual-track interest rate system and a segmented deposit market. The model quantifies the role of a liquidity reallocation channel from state to non-state banks and reveals a macroprudential trade-off: tighter regulation of wholesale funding weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy but mitigates systemic risk. |
| JEL: | E02 E5 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34056 |
| By: | Jyoti Thakur (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Karthick V (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | Ambedkar viewed urbanisation as an instrument for breaking down the rigid caste-based system prevalent in rural areas. However, the extent to which this holds true in contemporary India raises questions over whether people in urban settings can truly transcend the influence of the entrenched caste system. This paper examines the persistent issues of occupational segregation across gender and socio-religious groups in India's six megacities. First, the paper measures and analyses the levels of occupational segregation across different gender and socio-religious groups, using relevant indices and segregation curves. Second, it assesses the factors contributing to occupational segregation within local markets, with a focus on socio-economic and demographic variables based on regression models. The analysis reveals that caste and religion continue to exert a stronger influence on occupational segregation than gender per se, with the SC/ST and Muslim communities—particularly women—facing the highest levels of exclusion. The study underscores the need for intersectional approaches to policy-making for addressing structural barriers and promoting equitable access to economic opportunities in urban India. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Segregation, Urban Labour Market Dynamics, Gender and Social Identity, Social Exclusion |
| JEL: | J71 J16 J78 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:185 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing AI-driven spatial distribution dynamics in metropolitan areas undergoing demographic transition. We extend New Economic Geography by formalizing five novel AI-specific mechanisms: algorithmic learning spillovers, digital infrastructure returns, virtual agglomeration effects, AI-human complementarity, and network externalities. Using Tokyo as our empirical laboratory, we implement rigorous causal identification through five complementary econometric strategies and develop machine learning predictions across 27 future scenarios spanning 2024-2050. Our theoretical framework generates six testable hypotheses, all receiving strong empirical support. The causal analysis reveals that AI implementation increases agglomeration concentration by 4.2-5.2 percentage points, with heterogeneous effects across industries: high AI-readiness sectors experience 8.4 percentage point increases, while low AI-readiness sectors show 1.2 percentage point gains. Machine learning predictions demonstrate that aggressive AI adoption can offset 60-80\% of aging-related productivity declines. We provide a strategic three-phase policy framework for managing AI-driven spatial transformation while promoting inclusive development. The integrated approach establishes a new paradigm for analyzing technology-driven spatial change with global applications for aging societies. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.19911 |
| By: | Babbar, Karan; Dhamija, Gaurav; Ojha, Manini; Yadav, Kartik |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal effect of age at marriage on women's mental health in Nepal, focusing specifically on anxiety. Using nationally representative data from the latest round of the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), we address endogeneity in marriage timing by in- strumenting age at marriage with age at menarche, motivated by sociological evidence that menarche strongly in uences parental decisions about the timing of girls' marriages. Our findings show that a one-year delay in age at marriage reduces anxiety levels by 0.08 standard deviation. We find ad- ditional evidence that delayed marriage is associated with significant reductions in marital stress, suggesting that it is a key pathway through which delayed marriage lowers anxiety. These findings contribute to growing evidence on the mental health implications of early marriage and highlight the importance of policies that delay marriage age. |
| Keywords: | age at marriage, age at menarche, marital stress, anxiety, mental health, Nepal |
| JEL: | J12 I12 C26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1642 |
| By: | Sanjib Pohit (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Devender Pratap (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Chetana Chaudhuri (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Unlike other countries, economy-wide modelling in India generally has treated the Indian nation as one entity even though one recognises that the states/regions differ significantly in respect of their resource base and factor endowments. Of course, a few models at the state level exist. However, these models do not capture the transmission channels from the rest of India since these types of models treat the rest of India as merely a balancing mechanism. A few of the existing research studies for India using a Computable General Equilibrium model use a top-down approach to analyse state-level issues. A major drawback of this approach is the lack of consideration for region-specific price effects, for which the effect of state-sponsored programmes or imperfect factor mobility or disparities across regions cannot be captured in these models. Our study is the first attempt to develop a bottom-up model--TERM (The Enormous Regional Model)-for India. The model is utilised to understand the implications of a hypothetical drought in a region (South India) and how the effect transmits to the rest of India, through a 52 commodity sector TERM model for 7 regions in India encompassing 31 states and Union Territories. Each region within the model has its own input–output database and agricultural product mix, and the simulation in this static TERM model depicts short-run effects. The study shows that despite being limited to some states in South India, the drought is likely to have a moderate impact on the Indian economy. Both GDP and employment are going to be affected at the national level, and the parameters are affected in several states in India, that are not necessarily situated in the southern region. The interconnectedness of the regions causes reduction in employment and the wage rate, leading to migration of labour and redistribution of investment. |
| Keywords: | The Enormous Regional Model (TERM), bottom-up Computable General Equilibrium model, India, Drought |
| JEL: | C68 J21 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:181 |
| By: | Xiaolin Yu (Yonsei University); Jin Seo Cho (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | The current study examines whether government-led digital finance initiatives promote firm-level digital innovation by leveraging the staggered rollout of China’s Fintech pilot programs as quasi-natural experiments. Our dataset comprises 26, 746 firm-year observations of A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023. To measure innovation, we develop a text-based indicator derived from the frequency of digital-related keywords in the annual reports of the listed firms. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences design, we find that designation as a pilot zone increases digital innovation intensity by 0.8225 per thousand report words. These results remain robust across parallel, propensity score matching, placebo, and robustness tests. Mediation analysis reveals that the part of the effect is attributable to increased R&D intensity, with the program raising the average R&D-to-sales ratio by 0.24 percentage points. Moreover, program effect is stronger among high-tech firms and those located in Central and Western China, regions characterized by relatively weaker financial and digital infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences; Fintech pilot programs; digital innovation; R&D investments; firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | G18 G28 G38 O31 O32 O38 O53 P42 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-257 |
| By: | Misra, Shashank; Kulshreshtha, Shobhit |
| Abstract: | India consistently ranks among the countries with the highest levels of ambient air pollution worldwide. At the same time, it faces significant challenges in neonatal health, with newborns having low average birth weights and a high incidence of being born within the low birth weight (LBW) and very low birth weight (VLBW) category. Using data from the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we examine the impact of in-utero exposure to particulate matter on a number of birth weight indicators. We exploit variation in wind direction during the in-utero period to capture quasi-random variation in particulate matter exposure for each child. We find that reducing in-utero PM2.5 exposure by one standard deviation would lead to 1.3% increase in average birth weight, a 2.7 percentage point decrease in the incidence of LBW births and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in the incidence of VLBW births respectively. Drawing on estimates from prior studies, we find that the observed improvements in both average birth weight and reductions in LBW incidence from meeting WHO air quality standards could yield substantial long-run economic benefits, potentially amounting to billions of dollars annually in addition to broader gains in child health, cognition, and educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | birth weight, air pollution, in-utero exposure, India |
| JEL: | J13 I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1635 |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Compared to 2020, the deficit in merchandise goods trade with China is 3.6 times higher for Germany in 2025 (annualised based on data from January to April 2025) and it has doubled for the Euro area. However, the nominal exchange rate of the Yuan against the Euro has hardly changed between 2020 and 2025. This is all the more striking as European goods have become much more expensive: Producer prices have risen by more than 35 per cent in Germany and the Euro area compared with early 2020, whereas Chinese producer prices have hardly increased at all. The immense producer price divergence is mostly due to an external shock in Europe that resulted from supply chain restrictions in the course of the COVID-19-pandemic and from the energy cost increases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This constellation has caused a very large real appreciation (based on producer prices) of the Euro against the Yuan of more than 40 per cent for Germany and for the Euro area between early 2020 and spring 2025. The resulting huge cost disadvantage has likely contributed considerably to the rise in the trade deficit as an appreciation of the Euro renders European exports more expensive and imports from China less costly. Moreover, the real appreciation appears to be an important reason why about half of German industrial firms facing Chinese competition reported in 2024 that Chinese competitors undercut their prices by more than 30 per cent (Matthes, 2024). This large European cost disadvantage would have been prevented if the Yuan had appreciated against the Euro to a significant degree. In fact, a rising trade deficit leads to higher netdemand for Yuan in Euro on the exchange rate market as European importers sell Euro to obtain Yuan in order to buy goods from Chinese sellers. Thus, the Yuan should have appreciated if it was floating freely. However, the Yuan exchange rate is managed by the central bank of China relative to the US Dollar and to a basket of other currencies. As the Yuan did not appreciate against the Euro, the question arises whether this is a case of currency manipulation and whether China's significant cost advantage can be deemed unfair. To investigate this question, also other components of the bilateral balance of payments between the Euro area and China have to be taken into consideration as they also influence the net demand for Yuan in Euro. Indeed, the balances in services trade and in primary incomes (other components of the current account apart from the balance in merchandise goods trade) are positive. Thus, these components reduce the net demand for Yuan in Euro that is caused by the negative goods trade balance, but only to a small degree. Moreover, also capital flows have to be considered (that are measured in the financial account balance). However, there is a lack of data for portfolio investment inflows from China to the Euro area so that total capital inflows cannot be calculated. However, this missing component can be estimated (Chapter 3.2). Based on this estimation, the overall change in the net demand for Yuan in Euro between 2020 and 2024 can also be estimated: it has significantly risen by EUR 125 billion. These findings provide strong indications for currency manipulation and for a significant and unfair undervaluation of the Yuan against the Euro. If there had been a free and market-based bilateral exchange rate market, the rising net demand for Yuan in recent years should have led to a significant appreciation of the Yuan against the Euro. As this was prevented by the central bank of China's currency management policies, a considerable unfair price advantage for China has resulted, which comes at the expense of European companies that compete with Chinese firms on the world market. The large increase in the merchandise trade deficit with China is a clear indication of the relevance of the Yuan's undervaluation against the Euro. As European industry is seriously threatened by this development, trade policy action is urgently warranted in order to re-establish a level playing field. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:323227 |