|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Hubert Sebastian Tandianto (University of Surabaya); Felizia Arni Rudiawarni (University of Surabaya) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the correlation between earnings management and presidential elections in Indonesia. Prior research has demonstrated that general elections have a detrimental effect on the practice of earnings management at State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The objective of this study is to examine the impact of presidential elections on the practice of earnings management in Indonesia, specifically focusing on SOEs. A study was carried out utilizing a sample of 63 Indonesian companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), out of which 21 are SOEs. The study spanned over a period of 5 years. It aimed to investigate the impact of presidential elections in the years leading up to the election, the election year itself, and the years after the election. Our empirical research shows that presidential elections harm the practice of real earnings management in both SOEs and non-SOEs. Additionally, we observe a significant increase in the prevalence of earnings management before the election period compared to the period following the election. The discovery indicates a substantial increase in pressure caused by political events, such as the presidential election. These findings provide a reference point for future studies and aid in anticipating earnings management practices during prospective political events, particularly presidential elections. |
| Keywords: | Earnings Management, Election, Stated Owned Enterprises, Political pressure |
| JEL: | E66 M40 M41 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14316088 |
| By: | Wei, Zhiwu; Lee, Neil; Iddawela, Yohan |
| Abstract: | Mobile internet has become a fundamental component of modern infrastructure. In this paper, we consider the impact of mobile internet connectivity on household wealth in the Philippines. We construct a granular measure of local mobile internet connectivity using comprehensive information on approximately 0.27 million geocoded cell towers, and identify causal impact through a novel instrumental variable based on proximity to submarine cable landing points. Our results suggest that mobile internet connectivity significantly increases household wealth, with effects that persist across education levels and are more pronounced in urban areas compared to rural ones. Combining individual survey datasets with Points-of-Interest data, we investigate mechanisms and demonstrate that improved connectivity stimulates activities in several key economic sectors that create employment opportunities. Additionally, mobile internet connectivity enhances individual educational outcomes and promotes female labor force participation, though predominantly in occasional or seasonal roles. |
| Keywords: | mobile internet; cell tower; wealth inequality; Philippines |
| JEL: | F14 J24 J63 L86 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128871 |
| By: | Wei, Zhiwu; Lee, Neil; Iddawela, Yohan |
| Abstract: | Mobile internet has become a fundamental component of modern infrastructure. In this paper, we consider the impact of mobile internet connectivity on household wealth in the Philippines. We construct a granular measure of local mobile internet connectivity using comprehensive information on approximately 0.27 million geocoded cell towers, and identify causal impact through a novel instrumental variable based on proximity to submarine cable landing points. Our results suggest that mobile internet connectivity significantly increases household wealth, with effects that persist across education levels and are more pronounced in urban areas compared to rural ones. Combining individual survey datasets with Points-of-Interest data, we investigate mechanisms and demonstrate that improved connectivity stimulates activities in several key economic sectors that create employment opportunities. Additionally, mobile internet connectivity enhances individual educational outcomes and promotes female labor force participation, though predominantly in occasional or seasonal roles. |
| Keywords: | mobile internet; cell tower; wealth inequality; Philippines |
| JEL: | F14 J24 J63 L86 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128856 |
| By: | Sarun Kamolthip |
| Abstract: | This paper examines weather fluctuations’ effects on subnational economic growth in Thailand (1982-2022). The identification strategy employs fixed-effects panel regressions on plausibly exogenous yearto- year weather variations within provinces, isolating local temperature’s causal effects on economic outcomes. Results reveal a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between temperature and per capita GPP growth. These adverse effects operate as persistent growth impacts, which appear more prominent in lower-income provinces, though formal statistical differences in response functions across income levels were not observed. Agriculture is highly vulnerable, while industrial and service sectors show no significant direct temperature impacts in this analysis. Integrating these estimates with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections, future damages are widespread and severe. Without bias-correction, climate change is projected to reduce per capita output for 63-86% of Thai population, with median GDP per capita impacts from -4% to +56% (RCP4.5) and -52% to -15% (RCP8.5). However, accounting for climate model biases, even without lagged dynamics, median losses increase to 57-63% (RCP4.5) and 80-86% (RCP8.5). With lagged temperature effects, projections show substantially higher losses, leading to near-total output loss by 2090 with negligible positive likelihood. These findings highlight critical masked within-country disparities, as initial benefits in colder regions are reduced. This projection sensitivity underscores significant caveats in quantifying future economic burdens. Policy implications stress the imperative for decentralized, tailored responses leveraging granular data for highly vulnerable provinces. The persistent growth effects necessitate urgent proactive adaptation strategies, including investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly for vulnerable agricultural regions. |
| Keywords: | Weather fluctuations; Economic growth; Thailand |
| JEL: | O44 Q51 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:235 |
| By: | PICHYADA PHEUNPHA (Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University); Phimonsinee Udomphan (Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University) |
| Abstract: | The research aimed to examine the influence of government support and value chain management on business performance in Thailand's northeastern border trade area. A questionnaire with a reliability coefficient (0.96) at a very high level was used in this study. Area sampling collected 307 small and medium enterprises from Ubon Ratchathani and Mukdahan provinces. The statistics were descriptive and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that thirteen sub-independent variables correlated with the business performance at a very high level (r = 0.88) and can explain or predict the variance of business performance at a high level with 76% (Adjusted R Square = 0.76). Four variables affect the business performance with statistical significance at 0.01** and 0.05*, which were the regression coefficient of marketing and sale of the value chain (? = 0.40**), human resource management (? = 0.24**), Inbound logistics (? = 0.16), and government support of export (? = 0.12) *, respectively. So, entrepreneurs should focus on developing robust marketing strategies, utilizing digital tools and social media to enhance visibility while conducting market research to tailor their offerings. Investing in employee training and fostering a positive workplace culture will enhance human resource management. Streamlining supply chain processes and implementing effective inventory management can optimize inbound logistics. Additionally, staying informed about government support programs and collaborating with other businesses will help maximize benefits. For the government, enhancing export support programs through increased awareness and workshops, promoting business development initiatives like grants for marketing and technology investments, improving logistics infrastructure, and conducting ongoing research to assess SME needs are crucial for fostering a competitive business environment in the northeastern border trade area of Thailand. |
| Keywords: | Government Support, Value Chain Management, Business Performance, SMEs |
| JEL: | A11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14916511 |
| By: | PICHYADA PHEUNPHA (Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University); Kiengkwan Ugsornwong (Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University) |
| Abstract: | The research purpose was to examine the influence of business traits and value chain management on the business competitiveness in the northeastern border trade area of Thailand. A questionnaire with a reliability coefficient (0.95) at a very high level was used in this study. Area sampling collected 307 small and medium enterprises from Ubon Ratchathani and Mukdahan provinces. The statistics were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The results showed that thirteen sub-independent variables correlated with business competitiveness at a very high level (r = 0.85) and can explain or predict the variance of business competitiveness at a high level with 70.7% (Adjusted R-Squared). Six variables affected the business competitiveness with statistical significance at 0.01** and 0.05*, which were technology development (? = 0.35**), marketing and sale (? = 0.29**), procurement (? = 0.16**), province of business (? = 0.15**), human resource management (? = 0.14*), and service (? = 0.14**) respectively. Therefore, entrepreneurs in the northeastern border trade area of Thailand should (1) invest in technologies that streamline operations along the value chain, (2) develop targeted marketing campaigns that resonate with local and regional markets, (3) focus on building strong relationships with suppliers to secure better terms and reliable quality, (4) understand and capitalize on the unique characteristics of the local market, (5) implement comprehensive training programs to develop employee skills and knowledge, and (6) focus on providing exceptional customer service. Moreover, the entrepreneurs should continuously evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies through performance metrics and adjust as needed to ensure ongoing competitiveness. By focusing on these key areas, entrepreneurs can leverage the identified variables to enhance their competitiveness and drive growth in the region. |
| Keywords: | Business Traits, Value Chain Management, Business Competitiveness, SMEs |
| JEL: | A10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14916512 |
| By: | Pichyada Pheunpha (Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University) |
| Abstract: | SMEs are widely acknowledged as essential economic growth, employment, and innovation drivers in both developed and developing economies. However, to survive and remain competitive, strong business performance is crucial for their success. The research aimed to examine the influence of entrepreneurial characteristics and innovative business creativity on the performance of SMEs in Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand. A questionnaire with a reliability coefficient (0.97) at a very high level was used in this study. Area sampling collected 271 small and medium enterprises in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The statistics used were descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that eight sub-independent variables correlated with the business performance at a very high level (r = 0.87) and can explain or predict the variance of business performance at a high level with 74% (Adjusted R-Square). Seven variables affected the business performance of SMEs with statistical significance at 0.01** and 0.05*, which were entrepreneurial characteristics of management (? = 0.183**), taking risks (? = 0.181**), learning of business innovative creativity (? = 0.17**), creativity (? = 0.16**), innovation (? = 0.159*), operational (? = 0.15*), and autonomy (? = 0.12**), respectively. To enhance the performance of SMEs in Ubon Ratchathani Province, entrepreneurs should focus on improving their business management skills through workshops and tailored training, fostering a culture of calculated risk-taking by creating safe environments for experimentation, such as pilot projects, and investing in continuous learning and development to bolster innovative thinking, including seminars and mentorship programs. Additionally, organizing brainstorming sessions can promote creativity and lead to actionable outcomes from innovative ideas, and supporting employee autonomy will further enhance motivation and innovation. On the government side, creating support programs and facilitating networking opportunities will allow entrepreneurs to share best practices and challenges. Collaboration with research institutions can also drive innovation, while regular assessments of SME needs will ensure relevant and effective policy adjustments. Implementing these strategies will cultivate a more innovative and resilient business environment. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial Characteristics, Business Innovative, Creativity, Business Performance, SMEs |
| JEL: | F14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14916813 |
| By: | Eric Rougier (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthieu Clément (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); François Combarnous (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Dominique Darbon (LAM - Les Afriques dans le monde - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Bordeaux - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, much of the global middle class has become more vulnerable and disillusioned. Drawing on original qualitative surveys in Brazil, C & ocirc;te d'Ivoire, Turkey, and Vietnam, this paper reveals a persistent disconnect between middle-class expectations and government policy in the core domains of the social contract: public services, social protection, and participation. On the demand side, middle-class respondents report frustration with poor service provision-particularly in education, health, and security-and with tax systems, they perceive as burdensome yet unreciprocated. On the supply side, policymakers emphasize market access and credit expansion while retreating from broad-based public support, a pattern we term "laissez-faire paternalism." Despite their dissatisfaction, middle-class citizens often remain politically disengaged due to fragmentation and institutional barriers, producing a form of "truncated citizenship" in which they enjoy consumption rights but lack political influence. These findings challenge the assumption that middle-class growth naturally drives reform. Instead, we find a fragmented and politically instrumentalized group with limited capacity to press for change. By contrasting demand- and supply-side perceptions, the paper uncovers institutional blind spots and warns of rising frustration and instability if governance does not become more inclusive and responsive. |
| Keywords: | Brazil, Côte D'ivoire, Expectations, Middle class, Policy gap, Policy reforms, Political economy, Private and public sectors, Turkey, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2025–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05143928 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/193 |
| By: | Bin Ramli, Muhammad Sukri |
| Abstract: | Effective July 1, 2025, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) has implemented a new electricity tariff structure aimed at promoting energy-efficient practices. While this restructuring enhances transparency in billing, a critical analysis of the Time of Use (ToU) scheme reveals a significant potential disadvantage for vulnerable, stay-at-home groups. This report specifically analyzes how the new tariff structure, particularly the ToU scheme with its defined peak hours, may financially penalize households whose electricity consumption during these hours is a necessity rather than a choice. These vulnerable groups include retirees, parents with small children, work-from-home professionals, and those caring for the sick. This report provides an in-depth analysis of Tenaga Nasional Berhad's (TNB) restructured electricity tariffs in Peninsular Malaysia, effective July 1, 2025. It specifically focuses on the domestic sector, covering the key changes in the tariff structure, explaining how a household's bill is calculated, and presenting simulations demonstrating the financial impact on different domestic household types, including the perceived benefits of shifting electricity consumption habits. |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:y4sc2_v1 |
| By: | PICHYADA PHEUNPHA (Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University); Kamonphon Nakhonchaigul (Faculty of Management Science, Ubon Ratchathani University) |
| Abstract: | The research aimed to study the influence of service quality, consumer behavior, trust and risk on the online purchase intention of Generation Z in Ubon Ratchathani University, Thailand. A questionnaire with a reliability coefficient (0.97) at a very high level was used in this study. Area sampling collected 430 bachelor's students from eleven Ubon Ratchathani University, Thailand faculties. The methods used were descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that fourteen sub-independent variables correlated with Generation Z's online purchase intention at a high level (r = 0.774) and can explain or predict the variance of Generation Z's online purchase intention at a moderate level with 58.5% (Adjusted R-Square). Seven variables affected Generation Z's online purchase intention with all statistical significance at 0.01, which were attention (? = 0.185), psychology (? = 0.169), commitment (? = 0.157), attitude (? = 0.17), communication (? = 0.137), knowledge (? = 0.124), and convenient (? = 0.111), respectively. The findings underscore that Generation Z's online purchase intentions are heavily influenced by a streamlined, user-friendly experience combining engaging content and ease of use. Trust-building through transparency?such as open customer reviews and detailed product information?proves essential in reducing perceived risk, while educational resources like product tutorials and comparisons empower informed purchasing decisions. Marketing strategies that align with Generation Z values, such as authenticity and inclusivity, strengthen brand resonance, further encouraging purchase intentions. Personalized marketing, mainly when it addresses psychological factors like urgency, enhances relevance and appeal. Finally, predictive modeling based on critical variables allows businesses to efficiently target this demographic's unique preferences, providing actionable insights for refining service quality, transparency, and personalization to boost online engagement and conversions. |
| Keywords: | Service Quality, Consumer Behavior, Trust and Risks, Generation Z, Online Purchase Intentions |
| JEL: | A10 M19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15016520 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following an acceleration to 4.4 percent in 2024, growth is projected to sharply slow to 1.7 percent in 2025, in large part reflecting recent trade tensions and elevated global uncertainty. Inflation is projected to remain well below 2 percent in 2025, reflecting low tradable inflation and increasing slack in the economy. Reflecting appreciable uncertainty about the course of global growth, risks to growth are firmly tilted to the downside, largely stemming from potentially escalating global trade tensions and tightening global financial conditions. Net risks to inflation are also tilted to the downside, largely reflecting the downside growth risks, though there are also some upside risks to inflation, including from supply chain disruptions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/192 |
| By: | Clément Séhier (IMT Nord Europe - Ecole nationale supérieure Mines-Télécom Lille Douai - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Having become the "workshop of the world" since the 1980s, China is entering a new phase with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, which combines objectives of self-assertion on the international stage and support for the expansion of its major companies. The example of Indonesian nickel exploitation, an essential resource for China's electric vehicle industry, reveals the dark side of a development model that remains destructive and and antithetical to the stated objective of ecological transition. |
| Abstract: | Devenue depuis les années 1980 l'« atelier du monde », la Chine passe à une nouvelle étape avec le lancement des « nouvelles routes de la soie », où se mêlent objectifs d'affirmation de soi sur la scène internationale et de soutien à l'expansion de ses grandes entreprises. L'exemple de l'exploitation du nickel indonésien, ressource indispensable à la filière chinoise des voitures électriques, montre le côté obscur d'un modèle de développement qui reste destructeur et inégalitaire pour les pays partenaires et antinomique avec l'objectif affiché de transition écologique. |
| Keywords: | Nouvelles Routes de la Soie, Firmes Multinationales, Indonésie, Nickel, Economie internationale, China State Construction Engineering China Railway Group Huawei ZTE Evergrande Vanke Tsingshan Jinchuan Sinoma Alibaba Didi Tencent Meituan CATL BYD SAIC Motors Bank of China ICBC], China State Construction Engineering, China Railway Group, Huawei, ZTE, Evergrande, Vanke, Tsingshan, Jinchuan, Sinoma, Alibaba, Didi, Tencent, Meituan, CATL, BYD, SAIC Motors, Bank of China, ICBC] |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05144621 |
| By: | Jamil, Haziq |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first spatio-temporal analysis of property prices in Brunei Darussalam, a small, resource-rich economy with distinct housing market characteristics. Despite global interest in quantitative housing market analyses, Brunei’s market remains underexplored, with prior studies predominantly qualitative. Addressing this gap, N=3763 residential transactions from 2015 to 2023 were analysed using Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) priors to model spatial dependencies and temporal trends in house prices accounting for other price determinants. Emerging Hotspot Analysis was then employed to classify price clustering across time. Key findings revealed significant spatial autocorrelation (ρ=0.43) and temporal persistence best modeled by an autoregressive structure of order two, indicating that market reactions to changes can extend up to 6 months. The results demonstrate the critical role of spatial and temporal factors in shaping property prices, providing actionable insights for policy interventions and real estate market analysis, particularly in addressing disparities between urban and rural housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Brunei Darussalam; conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models; housing market; residential property prices; spatial imputation; spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128563 |
| By: | Cuong Le Van (IPAG Business School, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Thi Kim Cuong Pham (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Binh Tran-Nam (RMIT - School of Business and Management, RMIT University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the interplay between transfer policies, R&D, corruption, and economic development using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and a government. The government collects taxes, redistributes fiscal revenues, and undertakes public investment (in R&D, infrastructure, etc.). Corruption is modeled as a fraction of tax revenues that is siphoned off and removed from the economy. We first establish the existence of a political-economic equilibrium. Then, using an analytically tractable framework with two private agents, we examine the effects of corruption and evaluate the impact of various policies, including redistribution and innovation-led strategies. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Governance, R&, D, Economic developement, Productivity, General equilibrium |
| Date: | 2025–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05163866 |