|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Abdul Khaliq |
| Abstract: | This study measures the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks on financial technology (FinTech) lending in Indonesia. Using monthly FinTech data published by Financial Services Authority (OJK) over the period 2018M02-2021M04, the article examines the impact of COVID-19 started on March 2020 on FinTech by adopting an interrupted time series (ITS) experiment. The estimation shows that the COVID-19 outbreaks negatively affect changes in FinTech lending level in Indonesia, but the changes in the trend are positive. Moreover, the COVID-19 has been found to have a negative and statistically significant effect on the 90-day success loan settlement rate level. However, COVID-19 has positive and statistically significant effects on the 90-day default rate of loan repayment level. These estimation results recommend that the financial services authority of Indonesia should intensively promote various innovative financial technology (FinTech) lending post-COVID-19 to increase digital financial inclusion by providing peer to peer lending (P2P) to unbanked populations. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.06655 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168523 |
| By: | Reid, Ysaline; Ferrando, Tomaso; Vecchione Gonçalves, Marcela |
| Abstract: | This policy brief explores how the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR) plays out in real-world contexts across Brazil, Indonesia, and Colombia. Drawing on field-based research, it highlights the need to align implementation with local realities, rights, and aspirations. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, EUDR |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:apbrfs:2025006 |
| By: | Le Ngoc, Anh (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City); Heshmati, Almas (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dual impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on sustainable economic growth in Asia, focusing on its effects on Green GDP, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). Using data from 38 Asian countries spanning 1999 to 2022 and employing a two-step GMM regression analysis, the findings reveal that while FDI positively influences Green GDP growth, it concurrently exacerbates GHG emissions and reduces EPI scores. These results underscore the paradoxical role of FDI in fostering economic growth while posing environmental challenges. The study highlights the importance of robust environmental policies, investment in green technologies, and regional cooperation to align FDI with sustainability goals. It also emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to leverage FDI's economic benefits without compromising environmental integrity. This research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of FDI's environmental and economic implications in the Asian context, offering policy recommendations for achieving sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | sustainable economic growth, green economy, foreign direct investment, Asia |
| JEL: | F20 F21 O11 O44 O53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17900 |
| By: | Mustika, S. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of an education policy in Indonesia intended to promote the assimilation of ethnic Chinese minorities into the broader society. The policy involved the closure of Chinese-medium schools and the imposition of Indonesian as the language of instruction, alongside a standardised national curriculum for Chinese students. Using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits variation in the presence of Chinese schools across districts and difference in policy exposure across birth cohorts, I assess both the policy’s direct effect on Chinese students and its spillover effects on non-Chinese students. The results show that the policy disrupted the educational trajectories of Chinese students who were already enrolled in school at the time of implementation, though it had no significant impact on their subsequent labor market outcomes. The policy did, however, coincide with a widespread linguistic shift toward the use of the national language among Chinese individuals, although this does not differ across location. The policy’s impact on linguistic switch only becomes substantial for cohorts fully subjected to Indonesian education. Despite signs of linguistic assimilation, inter-ethnic marriage rates declined in districts that underwent forced educational transitions. Among non-Chinese individuals, the policy had mixed spillover effects: educational outcomes became more polarised, while labor market outcomes showed improvement. |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2539 |
| By: | Huynh, Quynh (University College London); Ku, Hyejin (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between economic development and female labor force participation, with a focus on the impact of gender norms. Analyzing quasi-random variation in provincial exports in reunified Vietnam from 2002 to 2018, we find that a positive economic shock led to a significant decline in women’s labor market engagement, particularly among married women from wealthier households and those with husbands in more skilled occupations. This trend is more pronounced in the South (formerly capitalist) than in the North (always socialist), and among native Southerners compared to Northerners relocated to the South after the war. Our findings highlight the importance of gender role attitudes in shaping women’s responses to rising incomes. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, social norms, gender role attitudes, income and substitution effects, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17911 |
| By: | Wishnu Badrawani |
| Abstract: | This study aims to evaluate the adoption of Bank Indonesia's QRIS (Quick Response code Indonesian Standard) payment system policy. The evaluation is hindered by the contemporaneous emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which acts as a confounding factor in adopting the new payment instrument. To disentangle the impact of central bank policy from the pandemic, a novel variation of the model of Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is proposed and is estimated using purposive sampling from an online survey with 572 respondents during the pandemic. The result of the study successfully disentangles the policy effect from the pandemic effect, and also separate the risk of pandemic with common risks (PR) and other technology adoption determinants. The results indicate that perceived central bank policy and pandemic risk are the most influential variables affecting the intention to use QRIS. The findings suggest that this measurement approach can be appropriately used as a complementary tool to examine the effectiveness of the central bank's policy in influencing people's behavior. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.11695 |
| By: | Michael Geruso; Dean Spears |
| Abstract: | Birth rates are falling worldwide, in every region. Falling birth rates can be decomposed into two components: (1) an increase in childlessness (i.e., lifetime nulliparity), and (2) fewer children ever born to women who have at least one child (completed cohort fertility among the parous). This paper quantifies the contributions of these two components for women in advanced economies in Europe, North and South America, and southeast Asia, and for recent cohorts in Indian districts. In both samples, we find that the birth rate among parous women is an important component in explaining low overall birth rates. Childlessness explains only 38% of the decline in cohort fertility in the advanced economies in our analysis. In the Indian context, childlessness accounts for only 6% of the difference between high-fertility and below-replacement districts. Moreover, in many country-cohorts and Indian districts, average completed cohort fertility would be below the replacement threshold even when considering only women who do have children—that is, omitting the zeros from the average. This is in tension with widespread recent narratives that attribute falling birth rates to increasing childlessness: To the contrary, in many populations average birth rates even among parents would be low enough eventually to cause depopulation. |
| JEL: | I1 J10 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33913 |
| By: | Rafael Acuna; Aldie Alejandro; Robert Leung |
| Abstract: | Dynasties have long dominated Philippine politics. Despite the theoretical consensus that dynastic rule erodes democratic accountability, there is limited empirical evidence establishing dynasties' true impact on development. A key challenge has been developing robust metrics for characterizing dynasties that facilitate meaningful comparisons across geographies and election cycles. Using election data from 2004 to 2022, we leverage methods from graph theory to develop four indicators to investigate dynastic evolution: Political Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), measuring dynastic power concentration; Centrality Gini Coefficient (CGC), reflecting inequalities of influence between clan members; Connected Component Density (CCD), representing the degree of inter-clan connection; and Average Community Connectivity (ACC), quantifying intra-clan cohesion. Our analysis reveals three key findings. Firstly, dynasties have grown stronger and more interconnected, occupying an increasing share of elected positions. Dominant clans have also remained tightly knit, but with great power imbalances between members. Secondly, we examine variations in party-hopping between dynastic and non-dynastic candidates. Across every election cycle, party-hopping rates are significantly higher (p |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.21280 |