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on South East Asia |
| By: | Harold Glenn A. Valera (BSP Research Academy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato); Vic K. Delloro (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we address the challenge of using aggregate data to study the effects of fuel and rice prices on overall inflation in emerging markets. Our quantile regression analysis using the Philippines' province-level monthly data from 1996 to 2024 finds a strong impact during periods of higher inflation. Indeed, this impact is verified in Indonesia, Thailand, and India. We also find that inflation targeting and rice tariffication reduce such an impact and that high-poverty and rice-deficit areas exhibit a higher fall in rice inflation effect post-tariffication. In addition, the impact of remittances on Philippine inflation is nonlinear, while it is asymmetric for the other three countries. |
| Keywords: | CPI inflation; energy and rice prices; remittances; quantile regression; panel data; emerging markets |
| JEL: | C33 E43 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:25/05 |
| By: | Ganz, Federico (Asian Development Bank); Varela , Gonzalo (World Bank); Taniguchi, Kiyoshi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Integration into global markets serves as a powerful catalyst for economic growth in developing economies, offering the potential to create high paying jobs and foster development. This paper uses the structural gravity model to quantify potential merchandise exports for Asian economies, identify destinations with significant untapped potential, and assess how factors such as cutting the time required to export can improve export performance. Our preliminary findings reveal that Asian economies, on average, have sustained missing exports equivalent to 6% of gross domestic product. While Asian economies perform relatively well internationally, there remains room for improvement to match top global standards. |
| Keywords: | missing exports; gravity model; global financial crisis |
| JEL: | F14 M31 M38 O24 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0784 |
| By: | Cristobal Cobo; Alberto Munoz Najar Luque; Bertrand Momo |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting the landscape of higher education (HE), presenting both opportunities and challenges. This paper discusses the results of focus group discussions conducted in 10 countries (Cameroon, Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Indonesia, Mali, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, and Rwanda), examining students’ perspectives, experiences, and concerns regarding AI’s impact on education. |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgens:194458 |
| By: | Lin Zhuo (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) |
| Abstract: | Multilateral development banks (MDBs) can play a crucial role in financing sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific, yet their capacity is constrained by insufficient capital and conservative lending practices. To address this, MDB shareholders should consider boosting equity capital because the current funding levels fall significantly short of meeting development financing needs of developing countries. In addition to capital injections, MDBs should consider including callable capital in their capital adequacy frameworks. Although not guaranteed, callable capital is a large part of the subscribed capital and can strengthen their ability to handle risks. Including callable capital, as demonstrated by the Inter-American Development Bank, can expand lending capacity of an MDB without compromising credit ratings. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb129 |
| By: | Alberto Isgut (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) |
| Abstract: | Managing currency risk is a serious challenge for developing countries that are not able to finance most of their financing needs in local currency. Currency risk can increase substantially the cost of servicing sovereign debts, potentially decreasing fiscal space for much needed investments in sustainable development, and lead to a higher default risk. This can make financing sustainable development and climate ambitions too expensive. Thus, given the urgency of scaling up finance for the achievement of the 2030 Agenda and the goals of the Paris Agreement, addressing the risk of foreign currency financing should be an urgent priority. To reduce exposure to foreign currency debt and associated currency risk, this policy brief discusses the importance of developing local currency bond markets and adopting sound macroeconomic policies. In addition, it highlights the importance of developing hedging tools to mitigate currency risk. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb131 |
| By: | Nurbanu Bursa |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies, particularly the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and T\"urkiye), are gaining influence in global stock markets, although they remain susceptible to the economic conditions of developed countries like the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). This interconnectedness and sensitivity of financial markets make understanding these relationships crucial for investors and policymakers to predict stock price movements accurately. To this end, we examined the main stock market indices of G7 and MINT countries from 2012 to 2024, using a recent graph neural network (GNN) algorithm called multivariate time series forecasting with graph neural network (MTGNN). This method allows for considering complex spatio-temporal connections in multivariate time series. In the implementations, MTGNN revealed that the US and Canada are the most influential G7 countries regarding stock indices in the forecasting process, and Indonesia and T\"urkiye are the most influential MINT countries. Additionally, our results showed that MTGNN outperformed traditional methods in forecasting the prices of stock market indices for MINT and G7 countries. Consequently, the study offers valuable insights into economic blocks' markets and presents a compelling empirical approach to analyzing global stock market dynamics using MTGNN. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.01945 |
| By: | David Jacks (National University of Singapore); Kevin O’Rourke (Sciences Po); Alan Taylor (Columbia University); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that the impact of gravity fell by a factor of roughly three between the 1780s and 1850s. The impact of empire on British exports was extremely large throughout, but the impact of 18th century mercantilism was much higher than that of empire in the liberal late 19th century. |
| Keywords: | Long run historical data, distance, empire, gravity, international trade |
| JEL: | F10 N70 N74 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202525 |
| By: | Fang, Peixun; Gimiseve, Harry; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population. This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain. |
| Keywords: | poultry; households; livestock feed; value chains; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngfwp:152443 |
| By: | Zheng Jian (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Muhammad Azhar Shah (United Nations Resident Coordinator’s Office in Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this policy brief is to provide an easy-to-digest overview of the factors affecting tax compliance in developing countries, including taxpayer motives at the micro level (section II) and determinants of national tax capacities at the macro level (section III), as well as a summary of policy options based on the discussion (section IV). Section V describes the tax situation in Pakistan and discusses the main messages and insights of the policy brief for Pakistan. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb130 |
| By: | Mitsuyo ANDO; Kazunobu HAYAKAWA; Fukunari KIMURA; Kenta YAMANOUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates how the US–China trade war affected sales to North America (i.e., Canada and the US) by Japanese manufacturing firms and their overseas affiliates between 2014 and 2021. Our findings are summarized as follows. All major sales channels to North America—except for sales by affiliates in Mexico, who enjoyed a positive trade diversion effect—were not significantly affected by US tariffs against China, on average. This includes sales by affiliates in the US and China. However, these effects are heterogeneous, depending on whether affiliates served as the main production bases for the North American market in their respective firms. We found such heterogeneity in affiliates in the US, ASEAN, and Mexico, as well as in firms located in Japan. For example, affiliates in ASEAN experienced a positive trade diversion effect when they were the main production bases. Our results suggest that Japanese manufacturing firms did not respond significantly to tariff changes during the Trump 1.0 period, with only minor quantitative changes and heterogeneous effects on sales to North America. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25046 |
| By: | Bose, Joy |
| Abstract: | Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in financial services has shown rapid growth in India in the last couple of decades, thanks to the ability of AI to examine vast amounts of data, identify patterns and potential efficiency savings from using AI in automation. The major use cases of AI in the finance domain include automated credit scoring, fraud detection, insurance risk, algorithmic trading and investment advice including robo advisors. However, the law in India has been a bit slow in catching up with the multiple recent financial innovations involving AI. For example, India did not have an overarching privacy and data protection law until recently, when the Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023 was passed. Fortunately, laws regulating finance in other countries such as GDPR in Europe and equivalent laws in USA and Singapore can serve as a model to enhance financial regulation in India. In this study, we first discuss important issues related to AI in finance related to bias, privacy, transparency, and ethics. Following a doctrinal and comparative legal methodology, we then study existing laws related to AI in finance in India and globally and identify missing areas in the current state of regulation of AI. We discuss a few landmark case studies in India and other countries related to legal aspects of AI in finance. Finally, we identify issues in existing Indian laws and make recommendations for a legal framework to handle the identified issues in AI in finance. Recommendations include mandating algorithmic transparency and explainability, introducing bias auditing and fairness testing, amending the DPDP Act to include automated decision rights, developing a risk-based AI regulatory framework, better regulatory capacity and industry self-governance. Only if lawmakers, regulators, and industry leaders effectively collaborate to meet the challenges, can we shape a fairer and dynamic financial AI ecosystem in India. |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:2my9a_v1 |
| By: | Abdul Khaliq; Syafruddin Karimi; Werry Darta Taifur; Endrizal Ridwan |
| Abstract: | The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) technique is performed to resolve whether the Indonesian Rupiah/US exchange rate has experienced multiple explosive bubbles. The GSADF uncovers that the Indonesian Rupiah/US exchange rate deviates from the fundamental values by six times from January 1985 to September 2023, periodically indicating the presence of numerous explosive behaviors. Once the full-sample period separates into the managed-floating regime and the free-floating regime, the GSADF still detects multiple bubbles. Of particular curiosity on uncertainty trinity, this study underlines that global geopolitical risk negatively drives explosive actions in the ratio of exchange rates for non-traded and traded goods. The global economic policy uncertainty negatively affects speculative bubbles in the exchange rate and the ratio of exchange rates for non-traded. The country's geopolitical risks negatively strike only speculative bubbles in the exchange rate. Further, we find heterogeneity in our results by examining different exchange rate systems. The robustness checks further firmly ascertain across baseline empirical findings. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.02869 |
| By: | Mohd Yusaini Mohamed Ali; Reezlin Abd Rahman & Hanisah Ahmad |
| Abstract: | Culinary arts have become one of the most important fields of work in the hospitality and tourism industry in Malaysia, involving both men and women. This field is dynamic with the potential to create a positive impact in various aspects of life. However, the trend of male students entering the culinary field shows a significant change. This trend may be due to factors such as economic stability, career suitability, current trends, and the factors of career choice within the culinary field itself. A study has been conducted to examine the validity of the stated factors among male culinary students at Sungai Petani Community College. Data was collected through a questionnaire from 79 male students at the culinary certificate level. The study findings indicate a significant relationship between economic stability and the choice of the culinary field (?? = 0.649, p |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2025-52-05 |