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on South East Asia |
| By: | Cabuay, Christopher James (De La Salle University); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Tan, Elaine (Asian Development Bank); Martinez, Jr., Arturo (Asian Development Bank); Bulan, Joseph Albert Nino (Asian Development Bank); Durante, Ron Lester (Asian Development Bank); Boller, Daniel (World Bank); Okamura, Soyoka (University of Tokyo); Yanagimoto, Kazuharu (Center for Monetary and Financial Studies) |
| Abstract: | At the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) lockdown in the Philippines in April 2020, the Asian Development Bank, in partnership with the Philippine government and the private sector, implemented the Bayan Bayanihan (BB) food relief program which served approximately 162, 000 households in the National Capital Region and nearby provinces. This study evaluates the impact of in-kind transfers on social distancing by examining the effectiveness of the BB program in restricting mobility by enabling households to stay at home. We leverage plausibly random variations in the timing of the rollout of the program by employing recent developments in estimating staggered difference-in-differences strategies to more accurately identify the effect of the program. We find supportive evidence that the program could generally discourage mobility. Our findings suggest that in addition to mitigating food insecurity, food transfer programs can also generate multiple dividends by helping families stay home and reducing the spread of COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; impact evaluation; mobile phone location data; food program; staggered DID |
| JEL: | D04 I10 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0781 |
| By: | Lutfu S. Sua; Haibo Wang; Jun Huang |
| Abstract: | A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality, we explore trade policy effects on emerging manufacturing hubs in China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. A Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model also assesses interaction of cross unit and perform Unconditional and Conditional Forecasts. Utilizing time-series data from the Asian Development Bank, our study reveals multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationships among key economy-wide variables. This innovative framework enhances investment decisions and policymaking through a data-driven approach. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17790 |
| By: | Sistac, Eliott |
| Abstract: | In the four decades following 1960, the Southeast Asian economies of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN5) grew faster than almost any other grouping of countries. This growth was marked by significant transformation of their industrial structures. First in Singapore and the Philippines, then in Thailand and Malaysia and lastly in Indonesia. This staggered pattern of industrialisation suggests a differentiated examination of each country’s industrial trajectory – a task this dissertation undertakes by exploring the Flying Geese (FG) model of economic development. The first aim of this study was to verify the applicability of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. To this end, the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of ASEAN5 in low, medium and high technology manufactures is analysed to assess shifts in comparative advantages from 1964 to 1999. This is complemented by an analysis of FDI flows, for a comprehensive examination of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. The results of this analysis confirm the presence of an FG pattern of development among Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, but not the Philippines. The second aim of this study was to scrutinise the implications of the FG pattern of development in shaping the economic landscapes of ASEAN5. Three impacts, FDI-led growth, co-operation initiatives and poverty reduction, are considered within larger debates on the links between globalisation and economic development. The analysis reveals that the ASEAN5’s record of development under the FG pattern has been mixed, challenging some of the narratives around globalisation. |
| JEL: | N15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127147 |
| By: | Lary Nel B. Abao (Department of Agriculture-National Livestock Program, Quezon City, Philippines); Deborah Kim Sy; Nobuhiro Hosoe (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Yuko Akune (Nihon University - College of Bioresource Science, Kanagawa, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact and drivers of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Philippines in 2017, using a static computable general equilibrium model. Observed data that indicate the market impact of the HPAI are partial; profit and welfare impacts have not been quantified yet. We investigate two major drivers of productivity declines by culling and death of birds and supply disruptions in the poultry sector and consumer avoidance behavior in meat consumption behind the observed market price drop of 7%. We estimate that possible combinations of productivity declines and consumer avoidance were 1–10% and 60–90% and that the HPAI inflicted a welfare loss of 25–56 billion PHP (500 million–1.12 billion USD) and a profit loss of 15–23 billion PHP (295–467 million USD). |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-04 |
| By: | Schlicht, Haley |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamics of Western OECD syndicated bank lending to East Asian borrowers during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), focusing on the interplay between sentiment volatility and moral hazard. Analysing loan data from Thomson-Reuters DealScan reveals that between 1993-2003 East Asian borrowers received disproportionately high loan volumes compared to other emerging market countries and this phenomenon is not full explainable by economic fundamentals. Regression analysis highlights the paradoxical role of short-term debt: while it was associated with higher loan spreads and fees, reflecting an acknowledgment of risk, it simultaneously increased lending volumes, indicating conflicting risk assessment. The study employs the novel use of GenerativeAI to construct an estimate of volatility in sentiment towards East Asia from financial news headlines, offering an original assessment of how market sentiment influenced lending behaviour. The Difference-in-Differences analysis provides compelling evidence that, in the pre-crisis period, increased sentiment volatility spurred increased lending while post-crisis that same volatility deterred lending. This shift highlights how lenders engaged in excessive lending despite appreciable risk before the AFC, only to recalibrate their behaviour in response to the post-crisis fallout. These findings indicate that the "East Asia effect" was shaped not just by regional economic factors, but also by sentiment-driven decision-making which contributed to the financial instability that characterized the AFC. This research highlights the need for further investigation into the role of sentiment in international finance, particularly its influence on financial decision-making during periods of economic growth and crisis. |
| JEL: | F34 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127154 |
| By: | Gopalakrishnan , Badri Narayanan (Infinite Sum Modelling LLC); Domingo , Ma. Veronica (Asian Development Bank); Basu Das , Sanchita (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The study analyzes the impact of changes in outbound tourism from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the subregions of Asia and the Pacific—Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Central and West Asia, and the Pacific. It conducts three simulations to understand the broader economic and sectoral impacts of: 1) the expansion of outbound tourism from the PRC from 2017 to 2018; 2) its slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) its cautious recovery from 2021 to 2022. The study broadly finds that gross domestic product (GDP) and export gains for Asia and the Pacific subregions are notable when the number of outbound tourists is high, i.e., prior to the pandemic and later in 2021–2022, and again when the PRC slowly opened its borders. Conversely, GDP and export losses are notable when outbound tourism fell in 2020 due to pandemic. Sectoral impacts are heterogenous, and the impact on exports is not necessarily aligned with that on GDP, because there are trade diversions and sectoral resource diversions that mute the impact going from exports to GDP. Given these dependencies on the PRC’s outbound tourism, the study suggests that economies in Asia and the Pacific consider diversifying their source markets through travel facilitation and better connectivity. |
| Keywords: | outbound tourism; exports; GDP; sectors; GTAP; Asia and the Pacific; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | C68 F14 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0782 |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno (Kwansei Gakuin University and RIETI); Yasuyuki Todo (Waseda University and RIETI) |
| Abstract: | China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to a global proliferation of large-scale infrastructure projects. From the perspective of Western nations, the impacts of BRI infrastructure investments on economic, political, and security interests pose significant concerns. This paper examines the effects of the BRI on Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and diplomatic relations between Japan and BRI countries. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design with a panel dataset covering 138 low- and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2020, we find that the BRI crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced political leaders’ visits from BRI countries to Japan. These effects are particularly pronounced for nations in the East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia regions, where the Japan–China competition for infrastructure investments is most intense. Furthermore, we identify the expansion of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects, particularly aid-based rather than debt-financed projects, as a key mechanism driving these effects. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative, Overseas infrastructure investments, Diplomatic relations, China, Japan |
| JEL: | F21 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Ricardo Dahis (Department of Economics, Monash University); Martin Mattsson (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Nathalia Sales (Department of Economics, PUC-Rio) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the literature about the impact of reelection incentives on corruption with an extended dataset of corruption audit reports classified with Large Language Model (LLM). We first show that correlations between the LLM-generated corruption measures and manually coded assessments are comparable to correlations among the manual datasets themselves. Our results support previous findings in the literature, although the result is only statistically significant for one out of three measures of corruption. We document significant heterogeneity in the effect over time and investigate several explanations for these empirical patterns, including changing composition of politicians and increasing probability of legal penalties. |
| Keywords: | reelection incentives, corruption, LLM |
| JEL: | D72 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-08 |
| By: | Laura Alfaro; Mariya Brussevich; Camelia Minoiu; Andrea F. Presbitero |
| Abstract: | Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S. credit register to analyze trade and bank credit relationships at the bank-firm level. We show that importers of tariff-hit products from China were more likely to exit relationships with Chinese suppliers and to find new suppliers in other Asian countries. To finance their geographic diversification, tariff-hit firms increased credit demand, drawing on bank credit lines and taking out loans at higher rates. Banks offering specialized trade finance services to Asian markets eased both financial and information frictions. Tariff-hit firms with specialized banks borrowed at lower rates and were 15 pps more likely and 3 months faster to establish new supplier relationships than firms with other banks. We estimate the cost of searching for suppliers at $1.9 million (or 5% of annual sales revenue) for the average U.S. importer. |
| JEL: | F34 F42 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33754 |
| By: | Muthitacharoen , Athiphat (Chulalongkorn University); Paweenawat, Archawa (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, Bank of Thailand); Samphantharak , Krislert (School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the unintended consequences of size-dependent regulations in small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) promotion policies. We use data from all registered Thai firms to analyze the effects of introducing a revenue cap in the SME tax incentive program qualification. Our study shows a marked bunching of firms just below the cap, illustrating tax salience. We provide evidence suggesting that the bunching is due to real operation responses. A differencein-differences analysis indicates that eligible firms just under the threshold exhibit a significant decline in revenue growth compared to those just above it. This adverse effect is more pronounced among firms with lower pre-policy profitability. We also document substantial negative effects on investment and profitability but find no significant impact on firm survival— challenging the assertion that government support enhances SME survival. Our findings also indicate a marked reduction in the presence of large firms, suggesting broader implications on firm size distribution in the economy. We highlight the double-edged nature of size-based SME policies: while intended to help smaller businesses, the measures may inadvertently suppress growth for firms near the threshold and potentially create resource misallocation. This study underscores the need for a careful policy design that supports SMEs without impeding their potential for growth. |
| Keywords: | size-dependent policy; SMEs; bunching; tax incentives; corporate tax |
| JEL: | G30 H20 K30 L20 L50 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0778 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson |
| Abstract: | There are calls for monetary and fiscal authorities to use policy tools to support ongoing efforts to achieve the net zero emissions goal. However, limited attention has been paid to the regional differences in the relationship between monetary-fiscal policy and CO2 emissions. This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policy on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel energy consumption. The study extends the literature by linking monetary and fiscal policy to climate action for achieving the net zero emissions goal. In the empirical analysis, the monetary policy indicator is the lending interest rate, the fiscal policy indicator is the tax revenue to GDP ratio while CO2 emissions from fossil fuel energy consumption is the CO2 emissions indicator. The findings reveal that contractionary monetary and fiscal policy jointly reduce CO2 emissions in the regions of the Americas and Africa. Contractionary monetary and fiscal policy combined with higher renewable energy consumption jointly reduce CO2 emissions in the regions of the Americas, Asia and Europe. Also, contractionary monetary and fiscal policy combined with higher institutional quality jointly reduce CO2 emissions in African countries. Higher renewable energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions in Africa, Asia, Europe and Americas regions while strong institutional quality consistently reduce CO2 emissions in Europe and the Americas. The implication of the findings is that monetary and fiscal authorities should strengthen existing institutions, increase renewable energy consumption, and increase interest rate and taxes on the fossil fuel economy in a coordinated manner to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, monetary policy, fiscal policy, institutional policy, population, interest rate, tax revenue to GDP ratio, net zero, sustainable development, renewable energy, economic growth, Africa, Asia, Europe, Americas. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 Q52 Q54 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124261 |