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on South East Asia |
| By: | Sufian Jusoh; Intan Murnira Ramli (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States are some of the most important foreign direct investment destinations in the world. Investment in ASEAN Member States covers all four pillars of investment typology: natural resources, market-seeking, export oriented, and strategic assets. Key sectors – such as semiconductors, tourism, consumer products, e-commerce, banking, and commodities (e.g. nickel) – are expected to benefit from this trend. Many of the investors in ASEAN are multinational enterprises, and multinational enterprises earning €750 million or more in two of the four fiscal years, are now subject to the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) in more than 140 jurisdictions around the world. With the introduction of the GMT, ASEAN Member States must rethink their incentives and investment promotion strategies to maintain their competitive edge over other foreign direct investment destinations around the globe. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-04 |
| By: | Nobuaki YAMASHITA (Aoyama Gakuin University, Swinburne University of Technology); Doan Thi Thanh HA (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The United States (US)–China trade war created new export opportunities for countries connected with the US and China by global value chains. We focus on the case of Vietnamese firms and examine a third-country effect by exploiting the firm-level variations in the extent of connections to the US and China with global value chains. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains (GVCs), Viet Nam, US–China trade war |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-24 |
| By: | R. Dwi Tjahja K. Wardhono (Bank Indonesia); Dian Puji Nugraha S (Bank Indonesia); Nadhia Shalehanti (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Dalam penelitian ini, penulis menganalisa mengenai penguatan lembaga yang berwenang sebagai pengatur dan pengawas sektor keuangan untuk menjaga kestabilan industri sektor keuangan dan peningkatan kepercayaan masyarakat dengan adanya reformasi hukum di sektor keuangan. Hubungan kelembagaan antara Bank Sentral dan Pemerintah merupakan salah satu aspek penguatan yang direformasi di sektor keuangan. Penguatan kelembagaan ini mencerminkan pendekatan bauran kebijakan yang memprioritaskan harmonisasi kebijakan moneter dengan pertimbangan lainnya. Hubungan ini terbukti efektif selama pandemi, menunjukkan kompromi dan aktualitas dalam mencapai stabilitas sistem keuangan. Independensi Bank Indonesia mengalami perubahan dengan adopsi bauran kebijakan, tetapi kebijakan moneter tetap diutamakan. Otoritas fiskal tidak menjadi superior, melainkan akomodatif, asalkan tidak bertentangan dengan kepentingan moneter, mencerminkan pendekatan yang mempertimbangkan kepentingan yang lebih luas. |
| Keywords: | moneter, fiskal, kelembagaan, bauran kebijakan |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp102023 |
| By: | Nasution, Putri Citra Cinta Asyura; Ayuningtyas, Dumilah |
| Abstract: | Patient safety incident (PSI) reporting is essential to identify underlying problems and improve safety, but PSI reporting in Indonesian hospitals is still low. This study examines factors that contribute to PSI reports. It employed a cross-sectional design and analyzed data from Indonesia's 2019 Health Facilities Research. Methods: According to the criteria, the sample consisted of 462 hospitals. We evaluate the data using the chi-square test. The independent variables were documents, including strategic plans and hospital bylaws; activities included implementing a quality control system, monitoring and evaluation, internal audits, service evaluation and quality control, and periodic meetings. Results: Even though most hospitals already have documents and carry out activities, reports regarding PSI are still lacking in the surveyed hospitals, with half not having any. In Indonesian hospitals, all variables were significantly associated with PSI reports. Hospitals with these documents and management activities, like strategic plans, internal audits, or evaluations, have more PSI reports. Conclusion: The number of PSI reports has increased due to changes in reporting culture, which may indicate a safer culture rather than necessarily an increasing risk. Adopt a comprehensive, data-driven strategy, concentrating on incident reporting and detection. Hospital management must sustainably monitor, assess, and evaluate to encourage PSI reporting. |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:38sdb |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | As ASEAN’s digital economy continues to expand, the region faces escalating cybersecurity risks with significant potential costs. This policy brief examines ASEAN’s current cybersecurity landscape, underscoring the need for enhanced cooperation and comprehensive strategies to address the rising threat of cyberattacks. The economic impact of cyberattacks in ASEAN is already substantial, affecting both public and private sectors. This brief reviews existing efforts such as the ASEAN Cybersecurity Cooperation Strategy 2021–2025 and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team (ASEAN CERT), recommending the establishment of a shared cybersecurity taxonomy, capacity-building initiatives, and legal framework updates to bolster cybersecurity. Key policy recommendations encourage robust multi-stakeholder collaboration at national and regional levels. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-06 |
| By: | Chun Chee Kok (Monash University); Gedeon J. Lim (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run effects of a colonial-era, large-scale resettlement program of ethnic minorities, on contemporary economic outcomes and political preferences of ethnic majority individuals in receiving areas. In ethnic Malay-majority Malaysia, the colonial British relocated 500, 000 rural ethnic Chinese minorities into fenced-up, isolated, monoethnic camps (1948 – 1960) all across rural Malaysia. This brought some pre-existing ethnic Malay-majority areas into closer contact with ethnic Chinese minorities but not others. Criteria for resettlement locations were largely military in nature. Using a spatial randomization inference-type approach, we construct counterfactual village locations based on this criteria. We find that areas located immediately next to Chinese New Villages (0-2km) experienced better economic outcomes and, in turn, had lower vote shares for the ethno-nationalistic coalition, than polling districts located next to similarly suitable, counterfactual locations. We provide suggestive evidence that these lower vote shares were driven by all voters, not just the ethnic Chinese. Together, our results suggest that persistent differences in inter-ethnic proximity can have a lasting, negative impact on voter preferences for ethno-nationalistic politics through improvements in economic outcomes and sustained increases in casual, interethnic interactions. |
| Keywords: | ethnic diversity, inter-group contact, immigration, Southeast Asia, voting |
| JEL: | D72 J15 P50 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-06 |
| By: | Kuriko OTSUKA (Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company); Keita OIKAWA (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The economics of happiness explores self-reported happiness or subjective wellbeing (SWB) by integrating economic methods with psychological approaches and utilising large-scale surveys across diverse countries. Originating in Easterlin’s pivotal work in 1974, this field examines the intricate link between factors of life events and environments and SWB. It reveals that material attainments (e.g. income) do not increase people’s SWB in the long run, whereas non-material attainments enhance SWB over time. In the context of urban development, non-material factors positively affecting SWB include active participation in communities and self-determination in one’s life. In recent years, well-being has been a key measure for smart city initiatives, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Smart Cities Network. To enhance people’s SWB through active community participation and decision-making in community services and activities, we propose that ASEAN promote a people-centric smart city (PCSC) model. This model defines a city that engages and includes citizens at every phase of city planning to ensure inclusivity. To implement a PCSC effectively, a comprehensive approach is essential, involving surveying well-being elements, clarifying community goals, enhancing digital literacy, setting rules and key performance indicators, and engaging citizens proactively. Collaboration amongst various sectors is crucial. A PCSC is not confined to online platforms; face-to-face meetings promote inclusivity and prevent exclusivity. |
| Keywords: | Economics of happiness; Subjective well-being; People-centric smart city; ASEAN |
| JEL: | I3 R5 |
| Date: | 2024–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-22 |
| By: | Kazunobu HAYAKAWA (Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Thailand); Sasatra SUDSAWASD (National Institute of Development Administration, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and highskilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender. |
| Keywords: | US-China trade war; wages; Thailand |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-26 |
| By: | Hu, Gaoji (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Li, Jiangtao (Singapore Management University); Quah, John K.-H (National University of Singapore); Tang, Rui (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel concept of rationalization, called coarse rationalization, tailored for the analysis of datasets where an agent’s choices are imperfectly observed. We characterize those datasets which are rationalizable in this sense and present an efficient algorithm to verify the characterizing condition. We then demonstrate how our results can be applied through a duality approach to test the rationalizability of datasets with perfectly observed choices but imprecisely observed linear budget sets. For datasets that consist of both perfectly observed feasible sets and choices but are inconsistent with perfect rationality, our results could be used to measure the extent to which choices or prices have to be perturbed to recover rationality |
| Keywords: | Coarse dataset; rationalization; revealed preference; Afriat’s Theorem; perturbation index; price misperception index |
| Date: | 2024–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_007 |
| By: | Rui Augusto Gomes; Rashesh Shrestha (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Salvador Buban |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief explores the development challenges faced by Timor-Leste and how its potential accession into ASEAN can influence the country’s long-term economic prospects. Timor-Leste stands out as one of the most democratic countries in the region, with a stable and peaceful environment, free press, and a high level of female representation in Parliament. However, its economic growth has been inconsistent and overly reliant on public expenditure, funded largely by oil revenues. There remains a significant development gap between Timor-Leste and other ASEAN members across various dimensions. As the process for Timor-Leste’s full membership in ASEAN unfolds, several areas of mutual interest emerge for collaboration. Key areas of focus include the development of the blue economy, sustainable agriculture, digital transformation, and human resource development. Additionally, it is recommended that Timor-Leste be integrated into ASEAN’s programmes designed to reduce development disparities within the region. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-05 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN’s digital economy is growing rapidly, offering both significant opportunities and challenges. Ensuring a competitive digital market is essential for fostering innovation, reducing costs, and enhancing product quality and choice for consumers and businesses, particularly MSMEs. This policy brief assesses the current digital market competition landscape in ASEAN, emphasising the need for robust competition policies to mitigate anti-competitive behaviours and establish a level playing field. It discusses key initiatives like the ASEAN Competition Action Plan (ACAP) 2025 and the ASEAN Guidelines for Sharing Merger Cases, while examining the complexities of digital markets, including the influence of dominant platforms, algorithmic impacts, and data privacy considerations. Policy recommendations focus on aligning provisions in the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) with regional standards and international best practices, enhancing regulatory capabilities, fostering regional cooperation, and promoting consumer education and protection. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-07 |
| By: | Soyoung Kim (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo); Yuki Higuchi (Sophia University); Kei Kajisa (Kyoto University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economcis, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Despite emerging academic interest in place-based policies, their impact on long-term structural transformation remains underinvestigated, especially in developing countries. This study explores the combined effects of infrastructure development (highway, industrial park, and school establishments) in transforming agrarian communities in the Philippines using 40 years of family dynasty data, combined with satellite imagery and public administrative data. The results suggest that infrastructure development has led to structural transformations by increasing the probability of male employment in modern sectors and facilitating female human capital investments. Additionally, both the demand and supply sides of labor are key to successful modernization through place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2024cf1237 |
| By: | Ho, Christine (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Wang, Yutao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We document three cross-sectional stylized facts on labor supply and family formation. First, female labor force participation (FLFP) and total fertility rates (TFRs) are much lower in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. Second, labor hours and the gender pay gap are much higher in the East than in the West. Third, parents invest more on schooling in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. To account for these features, we develop and estimate a rich heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous marriage, fertility, labor supply, and time and money investment in children. Estimates using data from South Korea and the United States highlight the importance of gender norms and long work hours practices in driving down FLFP while child quality mores drive down fertility in South Korea. Our results suggest that a multi-pronged policy approach or reductions in the gender pay gap may help boost both FLFP and fertility in East Asia. |
| Keywords: | Female labor supply; fertility; child quality; gender norms; long work hours |
| JEL: | D13 E24 H31 J13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_011 |
| By: | Cristobal Cobo; Alberto Munoz Najar Luque; Bertrand Momo |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting the landscape of higher education (HE), presenting both opportunities and challenges. This paper discusses the results of focus group discussions conducted in 10 countries (Cameroon, Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Indonesia, Mali, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, and Rwanda), examining students’ perspectives, experiences, and concerns regarding AI’s impact on education. |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgewp:194458 |
| By: | Chang, Pao-li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); MAKIOKA, Ryo (School of Economics and Business, Hokkaido University); Ng, Bo Lin (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Yang, Zhenlin (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a three-stage efficient GMM estimation algorithm for estimating firm-level production functions given spatial dependence across firms due to supplier-customer relationships, sharing of input markets, or knowledge spillover. The procedure builds on Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2015) and Wooldridge (2009), but in addition, allows the productivity process to depend on the lagged output levels and lagged input usages of related firms, and spatially correlated productivity shocks across firms, where the set of related firms can differ across the three dimensions of spatial dependence. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, and conduct Monte Carlo simulations to validate these properties. The proposed estimator is consistent under DGPs with or without spatial dependence, and with strong/weak or positive/negative spatial dependence. In contrast, the conventional estimators lead to biased estimates of the production function parameters if the underlying DGPs have spatial dependence structure, and the magnitudes of the bias increase with the strength of spatial dependence in the underlying DGPs. We apply the proposed estimation algorithm to a Japanese firm-to-firm dataset of 14, 178 firms during the period 2009–2018. We find significant and positive spatial coefficients in the Japanese firm-level productivity process via all three channels proposed above. |
| Keywords: | productivity estimation; spatial dependence; supplier-customer network; factor market pooling; knowledge spillover |
| JEL: | C31 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_010 |
| By: | Al Saqib Majumder, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Mortality and economic consequences during the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic provide plausible lower bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for the H3N2 pandemic mortality rate in the United States imply deaths of around 361, 000 when applied to current US population. We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic’s economic effects in the United States, using annual economic indicator data for the country from 1961-1990. Using excess mortality rate as a proxy for the severity of the pandemic and Vietnam war mortality rate as a proxy for the effects of war, we find that the pandemic is associated with decline in net exports while Vietnam war is associated with decline in unemployment, private consumption and total factor productivity. Our main findings highlight the different nature of war and pandemic and reveals economic mechanisms of pandemic diffusion. |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:n2kd9 |
| By: | Li, Jiangtao (Singapore Management University); Tang, Rui (Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Zhang, Mu (Department of Economics, University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We present a model of associative networks that captures how a decision maker expands her consideration set through mental associations between alternatives. This model serves as a tool to understand the influence of association on decision making. As a proof of concept, we characterize this model within a random attention framework and demonstrate that all the relevant parameters are uniquely identifiable. Notably, in a novel choice domain where not all observable alternatives are available, the presence of unavailable alternatives can affect the choice frequencies of other alternatives through association. |
| Keywords: | associative network; random attention; consideration set; random choice; availability and observability |
| JEL: | D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_009 |
| By: | Saowaruj RATTANAKHAMFU (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Naparit CHANTAWASINKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Warakorn AWUTPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Natcha YONGPHIPHATWONG (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between urban density and productivity, specifically wages adjusted for provincial price differences, in four major cities of Thailand: Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, and Songkla. Utilising the ArcGIS survey of Khon Thai 4.0 data, which measures urban density as the number of inhabitants per grid cell area, we employ the two-stage least squares estimation technique to address endogeneity concerns. Our findings demonstrate that higher urban density leads to an 8.9% increase in individual hourly wages at the 5% significance level. This supports the notion that densely populated urban areas foster enhanced productivity through agglomeration economies and knowledge spillovers. Furthermore, we observe the expected impacts of education, age, and gender on wages. Higher education is associated with an 8.2% increase in wages, highlighting its influence on labour productivity. Age exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship, indicating that experience and skill development lead to higher wages up to a certain threshold. Male workers earn approximately 5.83% more than their female counterparts, revealing a gender wage gap. Moreover, our analysis reveals contrasting effects of higher urban density on skilled and unskilled workers. Skilled workers experience a significant 15.2% increase in wages, whereas the impact on unskilled workers remains modest at around 1.8%. Additionally, education significantly contributes to higher wages for both skilled and unskilled workers. This study provides valuable policy implications for promoting labour productivity and addressing urban development challenges in Thailand. |
| Keywords: | Urban development; Urban density; Labour productivity; Wage differentials |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O15 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-12 |
| By: | Maria Monica WIHARDJA (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute); Abror Tegar PRADANA (World Bank); Putu Sanjiwacika WIBISANA (World Bank); Arya SWARNATA (Australia National University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide a nuanced and detailed analysis of the effects on the labour market of digital transformation and investment in Indonesia. This paper is divided into three strands of work, which can be read independently or together. In the first strand, we discuss the impact of digital transformation on rising wage inequality using the approach of skill-biased technological change. Building on the work by Jacoby et al. (2021), we explore channels that may attenuate the skill-biased technological change. The second strand looks at rising wage inequality arising from routine-biased technological change, which theorises that it is those performing routine tasks in their jobs who are left behind as automation emerges, not necessarily the less-educated workers. The third strand looks at the impacts of investment in the digital sectors on the wages and employment of various types of workers. The overall narrative is clear: workers who are more advantaged to begin with, such as high-skilled and bettereducated workers, benefit more from digital transformation and digital investment than low- and midskilled and lower-educated workers, who are more likely to lose out. There are, however, cases where high-skilled workers may also be adversely affected. This is the case in Indonesia for the period until 2019 (2016 for the study on the effects of digital investment). To address the digital divide potentially arising from skill-biased technological change, routine-biased technological change, and digital investment, we recommend that policies to accelerate Indonesia’s digital transformation and liberalise its digital investment are accompanied by policies on education, the labour market, investment, trade (including service trade), and competition. Our policy recommendations shed light on the findings in this report while considering that digital technologies will continuously evolve that may have different impacts on the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, labour markets, technological change |
| JEL: | J24 J40 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-17 |
| By: | Benjamin A. Olken; Rema Hanna; Phitawat Poonpolkul; Nada Wasi |
| Abstract: | Many government social insurance policies have low take-up. To understand whether this is due to administrative barriers, information, or low valuation of the insurance, we study an unusual policy experiment in Thailand that offered a very large lump-sum incentive for informal workers in selected provinces to enroll in a voluntary workers' social insurance program. Using administrative data, we find that the temporary enrollment incentive increased coverage by 67 percentage points—from 6 percent of informal workers to 73 percent -- within just a few months. However, 12 months later, only 13 percent of these new enrollees remained in the scheme, much lower than the retention rate of those who joined absent the incentive. By using new enrollees' choices among insurance tiers to back out a revealed valuation of insurance, we find that those who were induced to enroll by the incentives value insurance less than those who enrolled without. Combined, the results suggest that low social insurance enrollment may be the result of low ex-ante valuations of the insurance, rather than administrative barriers. |
| JEL: | I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33096 |
| By: | Beshkar, Mostafa (Department of Economics, Indiana University); Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Song, Shenxi (Lazada South East Asia) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a quantitative framework to analyze the WTO’s reciprocity principle. Utilizing two polar bargaining environments, we measure terms-of-trade concessions among WTO members and examine how shifts in applied tariffs and economic fundamentals affect bilateral and multilateral balance of concessions. We find significant disparities in concessions, largely driven by the rise in trade imbalances since the early 1990s. Notably, although US-China bilateral tariffs suggest considerable terms-of-trade benefits for China, under a hypothetical balanced trade scenario, their relationship evolves towards near reciprocity following China’s accession to the WTO. Furthermore, in contrast to the significant gains in its relationship with the US, China experiences a terms-of-trade loss in its bilateral relationships with other WTO members. Lastly, we offer insights into the magnitude of concessions exchanged by countries at different levels of development. |
| JEL: | C51 C54 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_005 |
| By: | A. Adegboye, Oyelola (Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Australia); Fujii, Tomoki (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore); Leung, Denis Heng-Yan (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore); Li, Siyu (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | HIV estimation using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is limited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instrument. Using Manski’s partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and compare our method against its competitors. We illustrate the proposed method using DHS data from Zambia, Malawi and Kenya. Our simulations show that imputation leads to seriously biased results even under mild violations of non-random missingness. Using worst case identification bounds that do not make assumptions about the non-response mechanism is robust but not informative. By taking the union of instrumental variable bounds balances informativeness of the bounds and robustness to inclusion of some invalid instruments. Non-response and refusals are ubiquitous in population based HIV data such as those collected under the DHS. Partial identification bounds provide a robust solution to HIV prevalence estimation without strong assumptions. Union boundsare significantly more informative than the worst case bounds without sacrificing credibility |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_004 |
| By: | Li, Jiangtao (Singapore Management University); Wang, Kexin (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We study the design of mechanisms when the mechanism designer faces local uncertainty about agents’ beliefs. Specifically, we consider a designer who does not know the exact beliefs of the agents but is confident that her estimate is within of the beliefs held by the agents (where reflects the degree of local uncertainty). Adopting the robust optimization approach, we design mechanisms that incentivize agents to truthfully report their payoff-relevant information regardless of their actual beliefs. For any fixed, we identify necessary and sufficient conditions under which requiring this sense of robustness is without loss of revenue for the designer. By analyzing the limiting case in which approaches 0, we provide two rationales for the widely studied Bayesian mechanism design framework. |
| Date: | 2024–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_008 |
| By: | Jo, Ah-Hyun (Korea Maritime Institute); Cho , Seong-Hyun (Korea Maritime Institute); Kim, Bo-Kyung (Korea Maritime Institute); Kim , Kijin (Asian Development Bank); Gaduena, Ammielou (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study measures congestion in major container ports and investigates how port characteristics and regional factors influence congestion during the COVID-19 periods. We develop port congestion indicators, including vessel arrivals, vessels staying in a period, waiting time, and service time. First, descriptive analysis reveals significantly higher service and waiting times in 2021 due to global supply chain disruptions. Import/export-focused ports were more affected than transshipment hubs. Short-term events such as labor strikes also substantially impacted port congestion. Next, using econometric analyses, estimated impulse response functions indicate a decrease in the number of ship calls following increased mobility restrictions, with average waiting time at anchorage promptly increasing, while average service time at berth was comparatively less affected by the mobility measures. Additionally, we find significant mobility impacts from neighboring ports, comparable in magnitude to those from the respective ports. |
| Keywords: | container port; automatic identification system; lockdown; impulse-response |
| JEL: | C32 F14 L81 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0747 |
| By: | Sebastián Villano (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Globalization and international trade have been longstanding focal points in economic research and global political agendas. However, the recent surge in protectionist policies has necessitated a reevaluation of the role of trade in the global economy. This research aims to scrutinize the process of international economic integration among various countries in recent decades, with a particular emphasis on Latin American economies. A comprehensive analysis of trade costs across countries is imperative for comprehending the dynamics and patterns of this integration. To accomplish this objective, novel indicators have been devised leveraging comprehensive databases and utilizing Structural Gravity Models with the latest available data. The results underscore the diverse nature of reductions in trade costs across regions and countries. Geography and asymmetry play a pivotal role in comprehending trade costs. Typically, developed economies experience lower trade costs, while emerging economies in Asia have notably gained from globalization. Conversely, Latin America has encountered obstacles in enhancing global market access through trade tariff policies. Additionally, upon comparing the gains attained by exporters against those of consumers, it becomes apparent that globalization has conferred more consistent advantages upon exporters, whereas consumers have encountered greater variability in the benefits. Notably, Asian consumers have emerged as primary beneficiaries, in contrast to Latin American consumers who have experienced comparatively modest advancements. Within Latin American countries, heterogeneity stands out as its primary characteristic, with economies displaying varying outcomes in reducing trade costs. While some have shown progress, others lag behind without significant advancements, remaining more isolated. |
| Keywords: | Trade costs, Latin America, Integration, Structural gravity indicators |
| JEL: | F02 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-12-24 |
| By: | Le , Anh H. (Goethe University Frankfurt); Park , Donghyun (Asian Development Bank); Beirne , John (Asian Development Bank); Uddin, Gazi Salah (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on budgetary sustainability and inequality. Using panel data, the findings suggest that rising climate-related disaster risks raise government debt and undermine fiscal sustainability, with low-income households bearing the brunt of the impact. According to a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, disaster risk generates recessions and increases inequality, particularly among “hand-to-mouth” agents. The paper also shows a considerable increase in sovereign debt due to disaster risk, and it recommends targeted transfers while cautioning against the fiscal cost of progressive taxes. |
| Keywords: | climate change; disaster risk; physical risk; heterogeneous agent; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E20 E31 E32 E44 G12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0750 |
| By: | Siti Indati MUSTAPA (UNITEN Business School, Universiti Tenaga Nasional); Noor Raida ABD RAHMAN (UNITEN Business School, Universiti Tenaga Nasional); Amar Hisham JAAFFAR (UNITEN Business School, Universiti Tenaga Nasional); Nor Salwati OTHMAN (UNITEN Business School, Universiti Tenaga Nasional); Syarifah Mardhiah Syed SALIM (UNITEN Business School, Universiti Tenaga Nasional) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of corporate governance in carbon-intensive and non-carbonintensive companies within Malaysian smart cities. The paper aims to understand the challenges and impacts of corporate governance on carbon and financial performance. In the first stage, carbon emissions data from 51 Bursa Malaysia-listed companies were analysed, revealing that corporate governance had no significant impact on carbon and financial performance. However, variations were noted in carbon-intensive industries. Liquidity emerged as a key factor positively affecting carbon performance, while firm size and market-to-book value were the main drivers of financial performance. In the second stage, a survey of 256 firms highlighted a high level of awareness regarding the significance of carbon reporting practices. Challenges included complexity regarding carbon reporting and knowledge limitations. The study advocates for the centralisation of carbon accounting standards, sharing best practices, and fostering of global collaboration to bolster effective climate action. These findings offer empirical evidence crucial for informing policymakers, companies, investors, and regulators alike. Future research could expand with larger samples, explore digital technology’s role in smart cities, and compare carbon reporting practices globally. |
| Keywords: | Carbon performance, corporate governance, financial performance, energy, smart city, carbon neutral |
| JEL: | F14 F40 |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-21 |
| By: | Rungsee Benjaanunphong; Pornraht Pongprasert |
| Abstract: | This research aims to analyze the factors affecting the price of condominium projects along the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Orange Line, an electric train that is expected to start operation in 2025. It is the main Heavy Rail line connecting Eastern Bangkok suburbs with the city's new Central Business District (New CBD). To provide more opportunities for land development, the city plan of Bangkok has also changed along the Orange Line, especially Ramkhamhaeng Road. The price of land will rise as a result. Researchers are interested about how the price of the condominium will change if additional factors are taken into consideration, such as the project's proximity to the MRT station, the main road, the expressway entrance and exit points, private facilities, and other factors related to the operator's reliability and the expense of the common area. To construct the project and set the price in line with the actual circumstances, this research outcome aims to provide real estate developers with an understanding of the factors that determine the pricing of condominiums along MRT Orange. Buyers of condominiums can use the proper price information to inform their selections. When making investing decisions, investors of stocks in real estate companies could consider this information into consideration and this data can be used as an outline by the Revenue Department to collect land taxes. In this research was used to analyse data from 28 condominium projects along Orange Line with a project life of no more than five years, covering areas close to the new CBD to the Eastern Bangkok suburbs, such as Min Buri. There are a total of 17 factors used in running regression under 3 groups: Locational, Physical and neighborhood characteristics. In result, it is found that 3 factors that affect the price are: Floors, Distance from Train Station and Distance from Department Store. |
| Keywords: | Central Business District (CBD); Condominium; Eastern Bangkok suburbs; MRT Orange Line |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-239 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod |
| Abstract: | Resilience thinking has gained prominence in research and policy debates in food security analysis. This article aims to estimate the effect of household resilience capacity on food security outcomes. The manuscript uses the Cambodia Living Standard Measurement – Plus Survey 2019-2020. The measurement of resilience capacity is done through Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis – II by FAO. In the RIMA approach, the manuscript also applies Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) to cluster households, categorizing homogenous resilience levels through “Low Resilient, ” “Medium Resilient, ” and “High Resilient” profiles. In the estimation strategy, the current study proposes a step-by-step analytical approach for using the propensity score matching (PSM) techniques with LPA to draw causal effects of resilience profiles on dietary diversity and food expenditure per capita. The findings generally confirm that “Medium Resilient” and “High Resilient” households have positive effects on food security outcomes compared to those labelled as “Low Resilient” households. |
| Keywords: | Resilience capacity, food security, latent profile analysis, average treatment effect, propensity score matching |
| JEL: | Q18 Q13 O20 C01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:305322 |
| By: | Beirne , John (Asian Development Bank); Park , Donghyun (Asian Development Bank); Saadaoui , Jamel (Université Paris 8); Uddin, Gazi Salah (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections to examine the role of political stability and financial development in the relationship. For a sample of 199 economies in 1990–2022, we first empirically confirm that climate risks adversely affect fiscal space. We find that such effects are most pronounced for the economies that are most vulnerable to climate change. However, our evidence indicates that political stability and financial development can mitigate such effects. We also identify nonlinearities in the climate risk– fiscal space nexus. More specifically, the impact of climate risk on fiscal space is greater when fiscal space is most constrained—i.e., in the upper quantile of the distribution. While fiscal consolidation is the key to mitigating the adverse effect of climate risks on fiscal space, our results suggest both political stability and financial development can contribute as well. |
| Keywords: | climate risk; institutional quality; fiscal space; bond yields; sovereign ratings |
| JEL: | F32 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0748 |