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on South East Asia |
| By: | Nohre, Carmen O. |
| Abstract: | [Contents:] Economic Growth Since World War II --- China (Farm Prices and Production Up – Farm Incomes Doubled – U.S. Imports Reduced) --- East Asia - Japan - South Korea - Taiwan (Rice Surpluses – Livestock Production Growing – Large Market for U.S.) --- Southeast Asia – Brunei – Burma – Indonesia – Malaysia – The Philippines – Singapore – Thailand (Rice Dominant – Corn – Wheat Imports – Other Crops – Livestock Production – U.S. Sales) --- South Asia – Bangladesh – India – Pakistan – Nepal – Sri Lanka (Rice and Other Grains – Edible Oil – U.S. Sales) --- The Pacific – Australia – New Zealand – Pacific Island Nations (Cattle and Sheep – Wheat – Tropical Products). |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersmp:347661 |
| By: | Donni F. Anugrah (Bank Indonesia); Danny Hermawan (Bank Indonesia); Denny Lie (University of Sydney); Solikin M. Juhro (Bank Indonesia); Misbahol Yaqin (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | In line with the dynamics of inflation in the last 10 years in ASEAN, especially inIndonesia, this research analyzes the factors that influence inflation in Indonesiaand ASEAN. Apart from that, this research also reviews the role of supply-sidepolicies to overcome inflation trends. The panel data used is 34 provinces inIndonesia from 2010Q1 to 2022Q4 using the GMM method. Meanwhile, for theASEAN analysis, data from three countries, namely Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, were included for the same time period and used the ARDL method. Theestimation results for the Indonesian case show that food price inflation is influencedby Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), wages, food imports, global food pricesand National Religious Holidays (HKBN). From a policy perspective, this researchalso finds that apart from (conventional) monetary policy which influences demand (through interest rates), there is a role for food subsidies which influence the supplyside in stabilizing food prices in Indonesia. These findings are also confirmed in theempirical analysis for selected ASEAN countries. This implies that a mix of monetarypolicy and food subsidies can be used to control food prices in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Food Inflation, Food Subsidies, GMM |
| JEL: | E31 H20 E51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp112023 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/307 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Adverse external and domestic shocks led to a sharp slowdown in early 2023, but economic growth is gaining momentum thanks to a strong rebound in exports and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, risks remain elevated, including because of a weak real estate sector and leveraged corporates. Headline inflation accelerated mostly owing to food prices. Despite a large current account surplus, the currency has been depreciating amidst record low domestic interest rates. |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/306 |
| By: | Arnita Rishanty (Bank Indonesia); Retno Puspita K. Wicaksono (Bank Indonesia); Rizkia Sari Yudawinata (WWF Malaysia, Malaysia); Siti Kholifatul Rizkiah (WWF Malaysia, Malaysia); Rafi Aquary (WWF Malaysia, Malaysia); Aurellia Puteri Arfita (WWF Malaysia, Malaysia) |
| Abstract: | Energy sector contributes significantly to emitting the largest emissions from fossil fuel combustions. Driven by the transition agenda towards a low-carbon economy, the industrial sector is expected to decarbonize its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This paper aims to assess climate transition risks and their impact on the banking credit portfolios of high-emitting and energy-producing sectors in Indonesia, namely coal, oil & gas, power, and automotive sectors, using the 1in1000’s TRISK framework. Using credit data from 1, 567 observations in December 2022, the findings reveal that the majority of banks are expected to experience a notable increase in expected losses (EL) and probability of default (PD) in these sectors. In summary, using the average increase of PD, excluding outlier scenarios, coal sector exhibits the highest increase in PD (45.2%), followed by power (41.5%), oil & gas (0.1%), and, lastly, automotive (0.05%). Although the highest change in PD is observed in coal sector, the highest expected loss is observed in the power sector due to large exposure that the banks have in the power sector. Study signifies the role of banks, including central banks and financial supervisors as the regulatory bodies in facilitating the transition to a low carbon economy and to support the sectoral rebalancing process of high-risk sectors exposures in banks’ portfolio. Additionally, this study also presents several recommendations based on the analysis to guide central banks, financial regulators, and the financial sector at large in managing climate risks effectively. |
| Keywords: | Banking Stress Testing, Climate Scenario Analysis, Climate Transition Risk, High-Emitting Sectors |
| JEL: | Q4 Q2 O1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp052023 |
| By: | Donni Fajar Anugrah (Bank Indonesia); Arnita Rishanty (Bank Indonesia); Maxensius Tri Sambodo (National Research and Innovation Agency); Ade Dwi Aryani (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This research provides a new perspective on developing Indonesia's critical mineral industry ecosystem from the standpoint of business practitioners and experts. Despite Indonesia's significant potential in critical mineral resources, the success of downstream development is determined by how well the upstream and downstream ecosystems can be strengthened. This includes improving raw material and material efficiency, building a strategic position in the global value chain, ensuring long-term supply sustainability, stimulating local demand, prioritizing the use of green energy, enhancing effective hazardous waste management, and addressing social issues in mining and processing areas. The analysis of Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in nickel downstream development indicates that, although substantial investment is required, a quicker return on investment can be achieved through technological changes, such as adopting pyrometallurgy. The NPV and IRR evaluation in copper downstream development demonstrates the economic feasibility of processing copper concentrate, showing significant profitability. The copper industry continues to grow with added value in the value chain, highlighting the economic benefits of copper downstream development. The prospects for downstream development of bauxite and aluminum are also promising. Based on NPV results, brownfield projects appear more economically viable than greenfield projects. Thus, the downstream development of critical minerals in Indonesia necessitates collaboration between the private sector (national and global) and the government to balance economic, social, and environmental objectives. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, downstream, firm-level, value-added |
| JEL: | L72 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp062023 |
| By: | Kannika Thampanishvong; Nipon Paopongsakorn; Bhim Adhikari |
| Abstract: | Floods and drought are the extreme weather events that pose major concerns on rice farmers in Thailand, particularly those in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB). To mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events on the rice production and their livelihoods, some of these farm households have undertaken some adaptation strategies, such as shifting crop calendar, changing rice varieties, etc. Using data from the survey of farm household in the CPRB, this study highlights the adaptation strategies adopted by farm households and analyzes the impacts of adaptation to extreme weather events on rice productivity using the endogenous switching model. Our results show that adaptation to floods that took place in CPRB increases the wet-season rice productivity. The unconditional impacts of adaptation on wet-season rice productivity are around 120 kilograms per rai (approximately 0.16 hectares). The treatment effect, which captures the counterfactual case whereby farm households who adapted instead chose not to adapt at the decision stage, shows that the impacts of adaptation on wet-season rice productivity is around 31 kilograms per rai, i.e. farm households who adapted to extreme weather events would have produced 31 kilograms less per rai if they did not adapt. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation; Extreme weather events; Chao Phraya River Basin of Thailand; Endogenous switching; Rice productivity |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:221 |
| By: | William Barnett (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA and Center for Financial Stability, New York City); JoonSoo Lee (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA Author-Name: Naowar Mohiuddin; Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study constructs Divisia monetary aggregates for the “Asian Tigers†—Hong Kong (1999–2024), South Korea (2009–2024), Singapore (1991–2021), and Taiwan (2005–2024)—and assesses whether Divisia monetary aggregates explain nominal GDP better than simple-sum money. Our findings demonstrate that Divisia indices respond more sensitively to economic shocks. For Hong Kong and Taiwan, narrow Divisia money provides the best explanations for fluctuations in nominal GDP. Our results suggest that Divisia monetary aggregates can be beneficial for monetary policy analysis in these countries and underscore the importance of further research into the empirical performance of Divisia monetary aggregates in macroeconomic prediction. |
| Keywords: | divisia index; divisia monetary aggregates; vector error-correction model |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202413 |
| By: | Leonardo STANLEY (Center for the Study of State and Society - CEDES (Argentina)); Francisco CASTAÑEDA (School of Economics, Government and Communications, Universidad Central de Chile (Chile)); Nassib SEGOVIA (School of Economics, Government and Communications, Universidad Central de Chile (Chile)) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades an important resource-accumulating agent, whose financial investments have spread across the world, has emerged: The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). This capital comes chiefly from economies that control natural resources and from budget surpluses that some nations can generate. The principal players are in the Middle East and Asia, whose resources come from oil and associated exports. SWFs, with their huge investment portfolios, have taken control of companies around the world, becoming, in turn, not just a principal provider of resources for the businesses but also creditors of various countries, with the objective of diversifying their investment portfolios. In practical terms, SWFs are state-owned investment vehicles that invest globally in various types of assets ranging from financial to real to alternative assets. The main purposes for their establishment are stabilising government and export revenues (fiscal), accumulation of savings for future generations in resource-rich countries to offset the future lack of natural resources (savings), and or/the management of foreign reserves. SWFs, however, could be pursuing more than one objective, mixing macro (fiscal, savings, reserves management) and development issues. SWFs are then capable of solving the Dutch Disease that characterise natural resource rich countries, even having a key role in transforming the economic structure. Developmental issues were basically associated with (traditional) industrial policies; SFWs goals, however, have recently, although timidly started to expand to include sustainable goals, as climate change issues. In Latin America, SWFs have mainly pursued macro-stabilization goals, whereas development related objectives are increasingly considered by funds in Asia and Africa. Furthermore, whereas the latter group has timidly begun to explore and invest in "green", Latin America keeps ignoring the issue due to its fiscal restrictions and urgent needs of income. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign funds, Climate change, energy transition, Investments and Financing |
| JEL: | F3 F55 H23 Q01 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2406 |
| By: | Ervi; Liusman; Kwong Wing Chau; Y. L. Wong |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of proximity to enclosed fresh food markets on nearby housing prices in Hong Kong. Fresh food markets are commonly found in residential areas in Asia for the convenience of shoppers. However, the presence of these markets can also pose health and hygiene hazards to nearby occupants. This study aims to investigate the net external effect of fresh food markets on nearby housing prices, which has not been explored before. The empirical results of this study suggest that the net external effects of enclosed fresh food markets on nearby housing prices are non-linear.This study found that larger enclosed fresh food markets, in terms of total floor area, have a stronger net positive external effect on nearby housing prices. Additionally, private enclosed fresh food markets were found to have a stronger net positive external effect compared to public ones. Furthermore, older enclosed fresh food markets were found to have a stronger net positive external effect compared to newer ones. In addition, the study also found evidence that enclosed fresh food markets with air conditioning systems have a net negative external effect on nearby housing prices. |
| Keywords: | External Effects; Fresh Food Market; Hong Kong; Housing Prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-099 |
| By: | Elizabeth M. Jacobs (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tom Theile (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniela Perrotta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Xinyi Zhao (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Athina Anastasiadou (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines gender differentials in the international migration of professionals, and how this varies by country, industry, age, and years of experience. We leverage data from LinkedIn, the largest professional networking website, to construct immigrant and emigrant Gender Gap Indexes (iGGI and eGGI). These indexes measure inflows and openness to international relocation. The findings indicate that, among LinkedIn users, the global population of immigrant professionals is at gender parity. The professional migrant population is majority-female in key destination countries like the U.S., U.K., Australia and France, as well as emerging destination countries like South Korea and Singapore. Our results show that the mobility of women migrants is driven by industries like finance, healthcare and real estate. We find evidence of positive selection among women migrant professionals in key destination countries and industries. Our results indicate that men are more open to international relocation than women, suggesting that men express higher migration aspirations, but men and women have similar rates of observed mobility. The paper makes novel contributions to the literature on migration aspirations, behavior and selectivity. Methodologically, we develop a new data set and appropriate measures to complement existing sources to study professional migration across a wide range of countries. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-037 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Gunawan (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia); Yuying Sun (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new nonparametric forecasting procedure based on a weighted local linear estimator for a nonparametric model with structural breaks. The proposed method assigns a weight based on both the distance of observations to the predictor covariates and their location in time and the weight is chosen using multifold forward-validation to account for time series data. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and show that the weight estimated by the multifold forward-validation is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible out-of-sample prediction risk. Additionally, a nonparametric method is adopted to estimate the break date and the proposed approach allows for different features of predictors before and after break. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to provide evidence for the forecasting outperformance of the proposed method over the regular nonparametric post-break and full-sample estimators. Finally, an empirical application to volatility forecasting compares several popular parametric and nonparametric methods, including the proposed weighted local linear estimator, demonstrating its superiority over other alternative methods. |
| Keywords: | Combination Forecasting; Model Averaging; multifold forward-validation; Nonparametric Model; Structural Break Model; Weighted Local Linear Fitting |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202412 |
| By: | Bochun Zhu (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Singapore Polytechnic); Fan Julie (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Singapore Polytechnic); Yi Feng Yee (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Singapore Polytechnic) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a low-cost prototype developed using open source hardware and software for realtime condition monitoring in areas, like Industry 4.0, etc. The prototype utilizes Arduino® UNO R4 WiFi with sensors to record, send and store machine / environment data timely to cloud native NoSQL database. The machine / environment data stored in NoSQL is visualized with Grafana from both desktop browser and mobile devices. Realtime alert is sent to personnel in charge for necessary actions to be taken when abnormal machine conditions / environment data are detected. By monitoring key components and environmental factors in a machine or system, detecting deviations from optimal operational parameters, and facilitating timely intervention using this prototype, overall equipment effectiveness could be enhanced, and downtime could be reduced. The adoption of open source software offers several advantages, including cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and community support. This study could provide valuable insights into the development and implementation of low-cost Industry 4.0 condition monitoring solutions using open source software and hardware, addressing the growing demand for affordable yet efficient condition monitoring and maintenance strategies in industrial settings. |
| Keywords: | Conditional Monitoring, IoT, Industry 4.0, NoSQL Database, Cloud Native Database, Open Source Hardware, Open Source Software |
| JEL: | L17 L86 O14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14816431 |