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on South East Asia |
| By: | Putra, Diva Haqina |
| Abstract: | Abstrak Indonesia memiliki potensi besar dalam rantai nilai global (Global Value Chain/GVC), terutama setelah bergabung dengan perjanjian CPTPP pada 2018. Peningkatan partisipasi Indonesia dalam GVC terlihat dari pertumbuhan ekspor dan investasi asing langsung (FDI). Dengan terlibatnya Indonesia dalam GVC, terdapat peningkatan produktivitas, kualitas tenaga kerja, dan peluang investasi, terutama di sektor manufaktur dan produk medis selama pandemi COVID-19. Namun, tantangan seperti rendahnya kualitas sumber daya manusia dan infrastruktur masih menjadi hambatan. Untuk memaksimalkan manfaat dari GVC, pemerintah harus mendorong kebijakan yang berfokus pada peningkatan kualitas tenaga kerja melalui pendidikan dan pelatihan, peningkatan infrastruktur, dan strategi research and development. GVC memberikan peluang untuk meningkatkan daya saing Indonesia di pasar global, terutama melalui transfer teknologi dan pengetahuan. Partisipasi yang lebih besar dalam GVC diharapkan dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan ekonomi dan mengurangi kemiskinan di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Global Value Chain, partisipasi, investasi asing, produktivitas, tenaga kerja, transfer teknologi. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vpc5m |
| By: | Koki Kanazawa (Digital Research Assistant, RONIN International); Kyosuke Kurita (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Using unique data on the amount of money held by the Indonesian three largest banks in each district and firm-level data of Indonesian micro enterprises in 2013 and 2014, we examine effects of four types of partnership with a private company, NPO/NGO, bank, and the government on access to finance of micro enterprises. Previous studies consider social capital as unofficial connection with other organizations. However, we newly examine an effect of official contracts as partnership and contribute to the literature by investigating many types of partnerships which have never considered and considering effect of supplier's side by utilizing data on bank's money in our estimation. It is found that firms with partnership with NPO/NGO are more likely to obtain loaned money as well as that with a bank. However, indicators of firms' performance and ability, such as ROA, entrepreneurs' education, and firms' size are statistically insignificant for loan approval. In addition, the amount of banks' money does not have statistically significant effect on loan approval. Therefore, it becomes explicit that Indonesian banks cannot effectively allocate loans to private sector because of corruption between specific private companies and public institutions and a simple policy like increasing money holdings of banks has no effect on distributing corporate loans to enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Partnership, SMEs, Bank loan, Indonesia, Microeconometrics |
| JEL: | G21 L14 O16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:279 |
| By: | Suhasto, RB. Iwan Noor; Anggraeny, Shinta Noor; Kirowati, Dewi; Khasanah, Alif Fidyah Nur |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to examine the effects of firm size, leverage, and free cash flow on earnings management and firm value. The population for this study consists of all companies listed on the LQ45 index at the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2022. The sample was selected using purposive sampling, resulting in 22 companies. This study employs a quantitative approach, utilizing IBM SPSS 23 for data analysis, with hypothesis testing conducted through Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results indicate that the proportion of firm size has a negative and insignificant effect on earnings management and firm value. Conversely, leverage growth and free cash flow have a positive and significant impact on both earnings management and firm value. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bj4cr |
| By: | Susanti, Yuli (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | In an era of unprecedented financial challenges, health emergencies, and technological disruptions, pension funds are critical to economic stability. Focused on the contexts of Indonesian employee pension funds, the study navigates the intricate dynamics of pension systems within the broader economy. Against an evolving global landscape marked by financial uncertainties and demographic shifts, the research scrutinizes how distinct pension schemes adopted by Indonesian employee pension funds shape the resilience and efficacy of their respective pension funds. The research employs two distinct yet complementary models to investigate the dynamic of pension fund outcomes amidst varying macroeconomic conditions and micro-level management practices. Firstly, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is utilized to explore the intricate interactions between macroeconomic variables. The VAR model allows for the simultaneous examination of multiple variables to understand the short and long-term effects on pension fund dynamics. Secondly, a micro-level panel data regression model is employed to delve deeper into specific factors influencing pension fund performance, including contribution rates, investment strategies, coverage, regulatory frameworks, and risk management practices. The analysis incorporates treatment variables related to the COVID-19 pandemic to examine the resilience of pension funds to external shocks. The empirical findings reveal significant associations between various macroeconomic factors, micro-level management practices, and pension fund performance outcomes. Notably, higher contribution rates, broader coverage, and effective risk management are found to positively impact pension fund performance, while certain aspects of the funding mechanism and regulatory framework exhibit negative associations. The study contributes to the existing literature by offering insights into the complex interplay between macroeconomic conditions, micro-level management practices, and pension fund outcomes, providing valuable implications for policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders in the pension fund industry. |
| Keywords: | Pension funds ; Economic stability ; Investment strategies ; Risk management ; Macroeconomic ; VAR model ; Indonesia pension funds JEL classifications: C33 ; E21 ; G22 ; G23 ; G53 ; H55 ; J32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:80 |
| By: | Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Mondon, Camille; Trinh, Thi-Huong; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne |
| Abstract: | ICS (Invariant coordinate selection) is a method aimed at dimension reduction as a preliminary step for clustering and outlier detection. It can be applied on multivariate or functional data. This work introduces a coordinate-free definition of ICS and extends the ICS method to distributional data. Indeed the inherent constraints of density functions imply a necessary adaptation of functional ICS. Our first achievement is a coordinate-free version of ICS within the framework of Hilbert spaces, assuming that the data lies almost surely in a finite dimensional subspace. Using the Bayes space framework tailored for density functions, we express the centred log-ratio of the density curves in a subspace of L2 0(a, b) of zero-integral spline functions and conduct ICS in this finite dimensional subspace. We describe the different steps of the procedure for outlier detection and study the impact of some parameters of this procedure on the results. The methodology is then illustrated on a sample of daily maximum temperatures densities recorded across northern Vietnamese provinces between 1987 and 2016. |
| Keywords: | Bayes spaces, distributional data, functional data, invariant coordinate selection, outlier detection, Vietnam temperature densities |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129830 |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Bonggeun Kim (Seoul National University); Chao Li (University of Auckland) |
| Abstract: | We examine relationships between luminosity and local economic growth for counties in China and the US and districts in Indonesia. Many authors estimate treatment effects on local luminosity growth and transfer GDP-luminosity elasticities from elsewhere to calculate economic growth effects. Our insight is that these GDP-luminosity elasticities vary especially by spatial scale and metro status, and also by period and remote sensing source. The elasticities mainly capture extensive margins of luminosity. Measurement errors in popular DMSP data attenuate GDP-luminosity elasticities but aggregation-sensitivity persists even when using instrumental variables estimation. Consequently, claimed growth effects of various treatments may be quite inaccurate. |
| Keywords: | GDP growth; Luminosity; measurement error; treatment effects |
| JEL: | C21 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:24/08 |
| By: | Khuc, Van Quy; Bui, Trinh |
| Abstract: | Thời gian gần đây, cụm từ Kinh tế số (Digital Economy) đã được các phương tiện truyền thông và thậm chí các nhà kinh tế nhắc đến như một từ thời thượng. Tuy nhiên, sự hiểu biết thực sự về lĩnh vực này như về cơ cấu, sự đóng góp và ảnh hưởng của kinh tế số vào tăng trưởng GDP vẫn còn nhiều hạn chế. Nghiên cứu này tập trung vào đánh giá tác động của nhóm ngành công nghệ thông tin và truyền thông (ICT) bao gồm sản xuất ICT và dịch vụ ICT đến một số nhóm ngành khác trong nền kinh tế. Cụ thể, nghiên cứu sử dụng phương pháp phân tích cân đối liên ngành I.O và bộ dữ liệu của 9 nhóm ngành được cập nhật đến năm 2016 để xác định tác động lan tỏa tổng quát, tác động tràn (spillover effects) của ICT, đóng góp của các nhân tố của cầu cuối cùng lan tỏa đến giá trị gia tăng của nền kinh tế. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy tác động lan tỏa tổng quát của hai nhóm ngành sản xuất ICT và dịch vụ ICT đều thấp. Sản phẩm cuối cùng của sản xuất ICT lan tỏa ít đến sản xuất trong nước nhưng lan tỏa mạnh đến nhập khẩu. Điều này có nghĩa là sản xuất ICT của Việt Nam chủ yếu lan tỏa đến nhập khẩu và sản phẩm phụ trợ trong nước cho việc sản xuất ICT là tương đối yếu kém. Kết quả nghiên cứu gợi mở một số hàm ý chính sách vĩ mô quan trọng để tập trung phát triển ngành ICT và một số ngành có chỉ số tác động lan tỏa tốt để góp phần thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam trong thời gian đến. |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:n37xr |
| By: | Gianluigi Nico; Thanh Hai Nguyen; Annabelle Bladon; Anna Ducros; Nga Thi Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s fisheries sector faces complex challenges, requiring a multifaceted approach for resolution. Fishing capacity in coastal, inland, and offshore fisheries should be reduced to rebuild fish stocks. Additionally, measures are needed to address the vulnerabilities of workers, such as income instability and health risks due to climate impacts and regulations. This necessitates coordinated efforts across various government levels and ministries. Social assistance, social insurance, and active labor market programs can enable and incentivize households to engage in more sustainable practices and more resilient livelihoods. Leveraging digitalization can improve data sharing and registration processes, thereby facilitating the extension of social protection to informal workers who present majority among fishery households. Furthermore, this integration of databases can enhance fisheries management through better-informed decision-making which is vital for sustainable development in Vietnam’s fisheries industry. |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:193886 |
| By: | Nguyen, An Thinh; Khuc, Van Quy |
| Abstract: | Nghiên cứu này có mục tiêu ước lượng mức chi trả tự nguyện (WTP) của người dân cho cải thiện ô nhiễm không khí trên địa bàn quận Tây Hồ, Hà Nội. Nghiên cứu sử dụng phương pháp định giá ngẫu nhiên (CVM) kết hợp với mô hình hồi quy khoảng để phân tích dữ liệu được thu thập từ 340 hộ gia đình (HGĐ) tại quận Tây Hồ. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy 43, 2% người được khảo sát cảm thấy chất lượng không khí tại khu vực sống đang trở nên kém và rất kém, 36, 8% có nhu cầu và ủng hộ việc đi du lịch sang các tỉnh thành lân cận nhằm giảm thiểu tác động tiêu cực của ô nhiễm không khí, 70% các hộ gia đình không có ý định thực hiện hành động chuyển nhà và công việc sang quận khác ít ô nhiễm. Về lý do không chi trả tự nguyện cho quỹ bảo vệ môi trường không khí, 46, 5% người được phỏng vấn không đồng ý do nghi ngờ về hiệu quả của quỹ. Kết quả của mô hình cho thấy trung bình một hộ gia đình sẵn lòng chi khoảng 71 nghìn đồng/HGĐ/tháng cho quỹ môi trường. Mức WTP này phụ thuộc nhiều nhất bởi nhóm yếu tố nhân khẩu học, tiếp theo là văn hóa môi trường gắn với nhóm yếu tố biện pháp môi trường và nhóm yếu tố nhận thức. Kết quả của nghiên cứu gợi mở một số hàm ý chính sách quan trọng trong thời gian tới bao gồm: (1) Nâng cao văn hóa môi trường thông qua tăng cường truyền thông và cải tiến các chương trình giáo dục về môi trường; (2) thúc đẩy đổi mới sáng tạo gắn với chuyển đổi xanh, chuyển đổi số, (3) đầu tư phát triển công nghệ, kỹ thuật xử lý ô nhiễm không khí và phát triển hệ thống giao thông công cộng xanh. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gjf4s |
| By: | Gietel-basten, Stuart; Chen, Shuang |
| Abstract: | Compared to other settings, COVID-19 infection and death rates in Hong Kong were very low until 2022, due to top-down interventions (e.g. quarantines, ‘mask mandates’) and community activation. However, in addition to these epidemiological circumstances, Hong Kong has also undergone significant social and political change stemming from the social movement beginning in 2019 through the enacting, and aftermath, of the National Security Law. We draw on registered birth and marriage data from 2015 through 2021 to explore how fertility and nuptiality changed after the social movement followed by the first four waves of the COVID pandemic. We describe how fertility and marriage rates have changed in Hong Kong and to what extent the changes are associated with the social movement and the COVID pandemic. We further disaggregate the fertility and nuptiality trends by Hong Kong-born and non-Hong Kong-born population, with a specific focus on migrants from the Mainland. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; social movement; Hong Kong; fertility; nuptiality; coronavirus |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118543 |
| By: | Erna, Erna; Murwaningsari, Etty; Murtanto, Murtanto |
| Abstract: | This study aims to reveal the determinants of profit quality based on governance factors. Specifically, the proposed factors are institutional possession (IP), supervisory board size (SBS), and an external reputable auditor. Besides, this study intends to examine the IP to moderate the relationship between SBS and profit quality. By employing 12 agricultural companies in the Indonesian capital market for ten years, from 2013 to 2022, this study obtains 120 observations and analyzes the data by regression model with polling data. After that, this study demonstrates that IP, the supervisory board size, and reputable external auditor quality positively affect profit quality. The negative interaction effect between IP and supervisory board size (IP*SBS) on profit quality is available: The smaller the SBS, the higher the profit quality, and this tendency happens when institutional possession decreases. In other words, the IP and SBS have substitution roles to crate profit quality. |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vxaud |
| By: | Solikin M. Juhro; Denny Lie |
| Abstract: | Should macroprudential policy be countercyclical or procyclical? Using an estimated medium-scale DSGE model with a wide array of shocks, we show that the optimal macroprudential (capital-requirement) response could be procyclical, in contrast to the standard recommendation of a countercyclical response. This finding is due to the existence of many shocks in the economy that imply a trade-off between achieving macroeconomic stability and financial stability. Our main, general finding on the possible desirability of a procyclical macroprudential policy response applies to any economy, even though the model for the analysis is fitted to the Indonesian economy. The only requirements are that there exists a shock that induces a trade-off between the two stability measures and that the objective of the policymakers is to maximize the welfare of economic agents. Under the scenario, the welfare loss from adopting a conventional, countercyclical macroprudential response could be sizeable. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, macroprudential policy, policy mix, financial system procyclicality, capital requirement, countercyclical or procyclical policy, |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-22 |
| By: | Gergely Hudecz; Alexandre Lauwers; Yasin Mimir; Graciela Schiliuk |
| Abstract: | Geoeconomic fragmentation is on the rise amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and a surge in inward-looking policies to strengthen economic and national security. Focusing on trade and capital flows, this paper takes a closer look at the implications of geoeconomic fragmentation for the ASEAN+3 and euro area regions, respectively. Both regions exhibit high degrees of trade openness that expose them to repercussions from geoeconomic fragmentation. Our analysis shows that overall ASEAN+3 trade values remain stable, but trade patterns have shifted. While China's exports have been affected by trade tensions with the United States, ASEAN exports have benefited from the region’s “connector” role. From the European perspective, we document an increase in the euro area’s financial exposures to geopolitically distant countries over the last two decades, and our analysis points to the vulnerability of capital flows to geopolitical risks. Regional financing arrangements should stand ready to support members as they navigate the risks of geoeconomic fragmentation, adapting tools and policies as necessary in line with their mandates. This paper is prepared jointly by staff from AMRO and the ESM. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:dpaper:23 |
| By: | Mohanty, Aatishya (University of Aberdeen); Powdthavee, Nattavudh (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & IZA Institute, Bonn); Tang, CK (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Oswald, Adrew J. (University of Warwick, IZA Institute, Bonn & CAGE Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural disasters. This conclusion holds whether or not we control for the (incorrectly signed) impact of temperature. The analysis draws upon longdifferences regression equations using GDIS data from 1960-2018 for 176 countries and the contiguous states of the USA. Results are checked on FEMA data. Wellbeing impact losses are calculated. To our knowledge, the paper’s results are unknown to natural and social scientists. |
| Keywords: | Global warming ; temperature standard deviation ; human wellbeing ; happiness ; disasters ; BRFSS ; WVS JEL Codes: Q54 ; I31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1519 |
| By: | Jinglei Huang (Tsinghua University, School of Social Science, Mingzhai Building, Haidian District, Beijing, China); Guofu Tan (University of Southern California, 3620 South Vermont Avenue KAP Hall, 300, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0253, United States); Tat-How Teh (Nanyang Technological University, Division of Economics, 48 Nanyang Ave, 639818 Singapore); Junjie Zhou (Tsinghua University, School of Economics and Management, 30 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | Network interoperability between platforms often comes in various possible configurations, including industry-wide, coalition-based, and pairwise interoperability arrangements. We present an approach to incorporate generalized configurations of network interoperability into the analysis of price competition among any number of symmetric platforms. Specifically, the network benefit received by consumers on each platform increases with the effective network size of the platform, which is determined by an interoperability matrix reflecting the connections between platforms. Four key factors—the strength of interoperability, the shape of the network externality function, the interoperability configuration, and the number of platforms—jointly determine the equilibrium prices. Our findings show, among other things, that increased interoperability strength tends to reduce prices and benefit consumers when: (i) the network externality function exhibits strong increasing returns to scale, or (ii) the interoperability configuration includes multiple coalitions. |
| Keywords: | platforms, interoperability, interconnectivity, compatibility, data sharing, learning curve, coalitions |
| JEL: | D43 L15 L20 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2403 |