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on South East Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/271 |
| By: | Tracy Patricia Nindry Abigail Rolnmuch; Yuhana Astuti |
| Abstract: | The realization of FDI and DDI from January to December 2022 reached Rp1, 207.2 trillion. The largest FDI investment realization by sector was led by the Basic Metal, Metal Goods, Non-Machinery, and Equipment Industry sector, followed by the Mining sector and the Electricity, Gas, and Water sector. The uneven amount of FDI investment realization in each industry and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia are the main issues addressed in this study. This study aims to identify the factors that influence the entry of FDI into industries in Indonesia and measure the extent of these factors' influence on the entry of FDI. In this study, classical assumption tests and hypothesis tests are conducted to investigate whether the research model is robust enough to provide strategic options nationally. Moreover, this study uses the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results show that the electricity factor does not influence FDI inflows in the three industries. The Human Development Index (HDI) factor has a significant negative effect on FDI in the Mining Industry and a significant positive effect on FDI in the Basic Metal, Metal Goods, Non-Machinery, and Equipment Industries. However, HDI does not influence FDI in the Electricity, Gas, and Water Industries in Indonesia. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.01985 |
| By: | Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz (Universidad Pública de Navarra, INARBE); Antonio Tena-Junguito (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the asymmetric protectionist policies of the U.S. in the Philippine market during the interwar period, focusing on how these policies effectively marginalized European powers and the emerging Japan before the Yen devaluation in 1931. Using a new database on product and country-level imports from 1913 to 1940, the study concludes that competition was most intense in cotton textiles between the U.S. and Japan. The literature identifies a devalued Yen, lower transport costs, and cheaper prices of cotton manufactures as key Japanese advantages that counterbalanced U.S. protectionism in the Philippines. Regression analysis indicates that tariffs hindered cotton textile exports to the Philippines during the interwar years, especially affecting Japanese exports before the Great Depression. Japanese competitiveness before the 1930s relied on government-supported lower freight rates. However, after the Yen devaluation in 1931, the effectiveness of tariffs diminished, and the devaluation became the principal driver of Japanese textile exports to the Philippines. To counter this advantage, the USA and Japan agreed to an export restraint in exchange for tariff stabilization at the start of the Commonwealth period in 1935. However, this agreement failed to reduce the value of Japanese cotton textile exports to the Philippines. A significant reduction occurred only after the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War in 1937. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric tariff policy, US colonial markets, commercial power politics, trade cost, exchange rate policy, competition in colonial markets, import margins. |
| JEL: | F13 F15 N75 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0265 |
| By: | Jiang , Yi (Asian Development Bank); Laranjo , Jade (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We delineate metropolitan areas (MAs) in the Philippines using cellphone user flow data to proxy for daily commutes. The exercise identifies a number of large MAs that are not officially recognized, and different spatial extents for the three officially designated MAs. The urban system aligns more closely with Zipf’s Law when the delineated MAs are considered. MAs with a population exceeding 1 million have grown faster than officially defined urban areas as well as the country as a whole. The mobility restrictions adopted during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic had profound impacts on the MAs. MAs experienced fragmentation and contraction when mobility was severely restricted in the first few weeks of the outbreak. As restrictions eased, many MAs swiftly rebounded in size with previously separated municipalities reintegrating into the agglomeration. Regression analysis highlights that proximity, administrative boundaries, accessibility, and labor market complementarity between the core and peripheral municipalities are important factors driving MA formation. |
| Keywords: | metropolitan areas; COVID-19; urban resilience; labor market |
| JEL: | I18 O18 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0736 |
| By: | Jalles, João Tovar (University of Lisbon); Park , Donghyun (Asian Development Bank); Qureshi, Irfan (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the growth impact of public and private investment shocks based on a large sample of emerging and developing countries over the period 1980–2021 with a particular focus on the Asian region. We develop new measures of investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted investment data. Estimations using local projections suggest that public investment shocks play a much greater role in boosting economic growth in comparison with private investment shocks. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) (including in Asia), the growth response to investment shocks is positive and much stronger in recessions relative to economic expansions. Finally, public investment shocks in EMDE and Asian samples crowd-in private investment and private consumption. |
| Keywords: | fiscal multipliers; public investment; private investment |
| JEL: | C33 E22 H30 H50 |
| Date: | 2024–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0737 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s growth remains strong despite external headwinds. Inflation is firmly in the target range and the financial sector is resilient. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious growth agenda to reach high-income status by 2045. This comprises public spending, institutional reforms, and Industrial Policy (IP). Risks are broadly balanced. Key downside risks include persistent commodity price volatility (e.g., from geopolitical shocks), an abrupt slowdown in Indonesia’s key trading partners, or adverse spillovers from tighter-for-longer global financial conditions. On the domestic side, a weakening of long-standing sound macro-fiscal frameworks could hamper policy credibility. On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated growth in trading partners or faster disinflation in AEs could prop up growth while deep structural reforms would raise growth over the medium term. |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/270 |
| By: | Ana Hernández Kent; Lowell R. Ricketts |
| Abstract: | Asian Americans typically had more wealth than other racial or ethnic groups, and that wealth was spread across a diverse range of financial and nonfinancial assets. |
| Keywords: | Asian Americans; wealth; net worth; assets; household wealth; wealth distribution |
| Date: | 2024–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98683 |
| By: | Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Tena Junguito, Antonio |
| Abstract: | This study examines the asymmetric protectionist policies of the U.S. in the Philippinemarket during the interwar period, focusing on how these policies effectivelymarginalized European powers and the emerging Japan before the Yen devaluation in1931. Using a new database on product and country-level imports from 1913 to 1940, the study concludes that competition was most intense in cotton textiles between theU.S. and Japan. The literature identifies a devalued Yen, lower transport costs, andcheaper prices of cotton manufactures as key Japanese advantages that counterbalancedU.S. protectionism in the Philippines.Regression analysis indicates that tariffs hindered cotton textile exports to thePhilippines during the interwar years, especially affecting Japanese exports before theGreat Depression. Japanese competitiveness before the 1930s relied on governmentsupportedlower freight rates. However, after the Yen devaluation in 1931, theeffectiveness of tariffs diminished, and the devaluation became the principal driver ofJapanese textile exports to the Philippines.To counter this advantage, the USA and Japan agreed to an export restraint in exchange for tariff stabilization at the start of the Commonwealth period in 1935. However, this agreement failed to reduce the value of Japanese cotton textile exports to the Philippines. A significant reduction occurred only after the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War in 1937. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric tariff policy; US colonial markets; Commercial power politics; Trade cost; Exchange rate policy; Competition in colonial markets; Import margins |
| JEL: | N75 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:44262 |
| By: | Nguyen, T.H.N.; Dang, C.D.; Nguyen, P.L.; Nguyen, M.D. |
| Abstract: | Diversification of rural livelihood through the development of non-farm activities is one of important policies for holistic rural development in Vietnam. However, non-farm households in general and pottery households in particular have faced with capital shortage in production process. One of reasons for their capital limitation is difficulties in formal credit access. This paper aimed to identify factors that influence pottery households’ access to formal credit in Bat Trang village, Hanoi city. By using Yamane’s formula, sample size of 167 households was determined. Descriptive statistics and Probit regression model were applied in quantitative data analysis. The results showed that households’ credit access was influenced by factors including age, educational level, collateral value asset, and return from ceramic production after tax. This study recommended that policy makers should implement a specific credit support for non-farm households in rural areas. In addition, commercial banks should loose credit requirements on collateral value assets in order to help rural non-farm households to access to formal credit, particularly banking loan. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344449 |
| By: | Marina Albanese; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Ida Colella; Nicola Spagnolo |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the impact of climate physical risk (as measured by the Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) from Germanwatch) on stock market returns. Specifically, a panel model with fixed effects is estimated using annual data from 2007 to 2021 for a set of 65 countries as well as for a subset of 18 Asian ones, which are also divided in two clusters on the basis of their degree of market capitalisation. The results suggest a negative impact of climate physical risk on stock markets; this effect is more pronounced in Asian countries with lower market capitalisation, which are perceived as riskier. |
| Keywords: | climate change, physical risk, Global Climate Risk Index, stock markets, Asia, panel data, fixed effects |
| JEL: | C33 G12 G18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11222 |
| By: | Le, V.D.; Pham, L.T. |
| Abstract: | The paper is aimed at measuring the risk attitude of maize farmers and testing the relationship between farmers' risk attitudes and optimal use of inputs in production. The experimental method of Eckel and Grossman (2002) associated with the constant partial risk utility function was employed to measure the farmers’ risk attitude. Then, allocative efficiency coefficients were calculated from the output elasticities of inputs estimated from the Cobb-Douglas production function associated with the profit-maximizing condition in using inputs. The data was collected from a survey of 130 farm households located in large and concentrated maize production areas in the Mekong Delta. It is found that the majority of farmers are found to be risk-averse, accounting for 69.05%. Generally, the more risk averse the farmers are, the less purchased inputs are used in production. Then, most of farmers are not able to maximize profits. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344440 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has made substantial progress in updating its regulatory and supervisory frameworks since the last Financial Stability Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2017. The OJK has strengthened its regulatory framework, implementing the Basel III post-crisis reforms. The recently enacted Financial Sector Omnibus Law (FSOL) enhances the OJK’s institutional set-up, powers, banking regulation and supervisory frameworks and clarifies the Financial System Stability Committee’s (KSSK’s) mandate for systemic risk monitoring and coordination. The OJK has developed supervision capabilities and deployed innovative Supervisory Technologies (SupTech) to achieve greater efficiency in banking supervision. New regulations on corporate governance have elevated the importance of good governance within the banking industry. While progress has been made, the OJK must continue intensifying its efforts, considering emerging challenges in the global economic and financial environment and new risks from digitalization, cyber and climate change. |
| Date: | 2024–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/273 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The financial system appears to be broadly resilient, has strong capital and liquidity buffers but remains relatively small and dominated by banks, especially few state-owned banks. Household and corporate indebtedness and public debt are low. The macroprudential policy framework features both financial stability and development objectives. The recently passed Financial Sector Omnibus Law (FSOL) will make notable reforms to the financial sector. |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/272 |
| By: | Buenaseda, R.D.; Daloonpate, A.; Vijitsrikamol, K. |
| Abstract: | Recent developments in the Philippine onion industry include investments on cold storage facilities to abate postharvest losses and to provide farmers an option to increase their profit. Considering that onion is a highly seasonal crop, farmers may benefit from storing their harvest by selling in another time period when prices are higher. While previous studies showed that adoption of storage technology has resulted into additional net income, farmers are unable to capitalize this opportunity due to several barriers. Thus, this study examined the factors that are associated with the likelihood of using cold storage technology. Binary logit analysis was used to identify the factors that determine cold storage use. A total of 169 farmers are randomly selected using stratified random sampling. Farmers who are reliant on financiers serve as an impediment in practicing onion storage. Farmers who are engaged in trading, have stored onion previously, are members of a cooperative, and have attended training on postharvest management are more likely to use the cold storage facility. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344460 |
| By: | Rustam Jamilov (University of Oxford); Tobias König (University of Bonn); Karsten Müller (National University of Singapore); Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We study bank runs using a novel historical cross-country dataset that covers 184 countries over the past 200 years and combines a new narrative chronology with statistical indicators of bank deposit withdrawals. We document the following facts: (i) the unconditional likelihood of a bank run is 1.2% and that of significant deposit withdrawals 12.7%; (ii) systemic bank runs, i.e. those that are accompanied by deposit withdrawals, are associated with substantially larger output losses than non-systemic runs or deposit contractions alone; (iii) bank runs are contractionary even when they are not triggered by fundamental causes, banks are well-capitalized, and there is no evidence of a crisis or widespread failures in the banking sector; (iv) in historical and contemporary episodes, depositors tend to run on highly leveraged banks, causing a credit crunch, and a reallocation of deposits across banks; and (v) liability guarantees are associated with lower output losses after systemic runs, while having a lender of last resort or deposit insurance reduces the probability of a run becoming systemic. Taken together, our findings highlight a key role for sudden bank liability disruptions over and above other sources of financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | bank runs, financial fragility, deposits, financial crises |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:333 |
| By: | Debre, Maria J; Sommerer, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of sub-regime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autocracy, democracy, international organizations, international liberal order |
| Date: | 2023–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7g9450nx |
| By: | Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo; Evzen Kocenda; Viet Hoang Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Connectedness quantifies the extent of interlinkages within economies or markets based on a network approach. Connectedness is measured by the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index, and abrupt increases in this measure are thought to result from major events. However, formal statistical evidence of events causing such increases is scant. We develop a bootstrap-based technique to evaluate the probability that the value of the spillover index changes at a statistically significant level following an exogenously deï¬ ned event. We further show how our procedure can detect the dates of unknown events endogenously. The results of a simulation exercise support the effectiveness of our method. We revisit the original dataset from Diebold and Yilmaz’s seminal work and obtain statistical support that the spillover index increases quickly in the wake of adverse shocks. Our methodology accounts for small sample bias and is robust with respect to modifications of the pre-event period and forecast horizon. |
| Keywords: | connectedness, spillover index, adverse shocks, impactful events, financial contagion, bootstrap-after-bootstrap procedure |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-51 |