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on South East Asia |
| By: | PHAM PHUONG NGOC (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam); DAINN WIE (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); HANOL LEE (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of a large demand shock on the timing of women’s marital decisions and first childbirth experiences in Vietnam. Using the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001 as an exogenous shock, we hypothesize that the reduction in women’s and men’s self-employment would delay family formation and childbirth, with the ultimate impact on marriage remaining ambiguous. Analyzing data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys, we find that both men and women are less likely to be self-employed in the face of a substantial trade shock. Notably, the decreasing impact on women's self-employment becomes more pronounced than that for men post-2012, a decade after the agreement's enforcement. Employing the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and survival analysis, we empirically demonstrate that increased exposure to trade postpones women's timing of marriage and first childbirth. On average, in 2013, the BTA resulted in a 4.43- and 4.45%-point decrease in the probability of entering marriage and becoming a mother, respectively. We also present suggestive evidence that increased exposure to trade liberalization eventually increases the likelihood of marriage and the number of children among women over 40. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalization, fertility, marriage, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-12&r= |
| By: | PHAM PHUONG NGOC (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam); DAINN WIE (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Trade can significantly reduce informality in developing countries by fostering economic growth and creating formal employment opportunities. A large proportion of workers in developing countries such as Vietnam work in the informal sector, making them vulnerable and less productive. This study examines the short-term impact of the US– China trade war as a positive demand shock on the informality of Vietnam's labor market, using nationally representative data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey from 2017 to 2019. We create an industry-level measure based on variations in tariff increases applied to Chinese goods, representing the tariff advantages granted to Vietnamese firms. The estimation results show that workers in industries with higher tariff advantages are less likely to be employed as informal or uninsured workers. By applying Goldberg and Pavcnik’s (2003) framework, we interpret these findings as indicating that Vietnamese firms perceived the US–China trade shock as a positive and permanent demand shock. To our knowledge, the empirical evidence presented in this study represents a rare investigation into the effects of the trade war on the labor market of a non-participating country. Additionally, the findings offer important implications for other developing countries by showing how Vietnam’s labor market and informality improved as firms took advantage of the new trade opportunities created by trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | labor market informality; trade war; trade diversion, tariffs |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-09&r= |
| By: | Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the Asia-Pacific, free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnership agreements (EPAs) have been implemented intensively. However, a few major economies have been lagging behind that trend, and recent agreements have not always agreed on 100% tariff removals. This paper presents an overview of the development of EPAs in the Asia-Pacific and investigates quantitatively the relative significance of the impact of the expansion of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the most recent trade database and tariff data. The results of model simulations suggest that the impact of China joining CPTPP would be larger than that of the United States (US) joining, in terms of macroeconomic benefits to the CPTPP economies on average. That said, the macroeconomic effects of the US and/or China joining CPTPP vary in terms of both magnitude and direction among the CPTPP economies. Meanwhile, the impact at the sector level would also vary among those scenarios. The impact estimated by model simulations would also be dependent on the structure of the CGE model used. The impacts of EPAs in alternative scenarios are worth simulating (using the same model version) and comparing. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-10&r= |
| By: | Riandy Laksono; Arianto A. Patunru |
| Abstract: | Labour share of income in developing economies has generally declined with increased engagement in international trade, raising concern about adverse distributional consequences of trade for workers. Using a panel dataset of Indonesian manufacturing firms from 1990 to 2015, we evaluate how trade affects the dynamics of labor share from a micro-level perspective. We find that trade liberalization contributes to declining labor share, mainly by shifting market share towards better-performing firms with already-low labor share. While this is in line with the superstar firm framework, such model fails to characterize the labor share dynamics in a developing economy like Indonesiawhere aggregate markups and concentration do not rise. Instead, this study supports a trade-based explanation for labor share decline. |
| JEL: | F61 F63 F66 J30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2024-3&r= |
| By: | Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Carol Newman (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Finn Tarp (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | We present experimental evidence on the impact of a role model intervention to encourage ethnic minorities in Vietnam to start businesses and diversify income sources. We distinguish between relatable ethnic minority role models and ethnic majority role models allowing us to investigate the effect of increasing the social distance of the role model from the target population while keeping the information content constant. We find that relatability is important for inspiring individuals and inducing behavioral change. Diversification into business activities, however, does not always lead to improved household outcomes, particularly for those exposed to natural shocks. |
| Keywords: | role models, RCT, ethnic minorities, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D1 D3 I3 Q12 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0424&r= |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Sudyumna Dahal; Haiyan Lin |
| Abstract: | The average country in Asia-Pacific experiences more natural disasters than the average country of other developing regions. This paper presents stylized facts on natural disasters, human development, and external debt in Asia-Pacific. The paper also contains estimates of the effects that natural disasters have on human development. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, dynamic panel model estimates show that external debt has a mitigating effect on the adverse impacts that natural disasters have on human development: In countries with low external debt-toGDP ratios, natural disasters significantly decrease the human development index; but not so in countries with high external debt-to-GDP ratios. External debt (i.e. borrowing from abroad) is a financial contract for obtaining resources from abroad (i.e. imports of goods and services). When a country experiencing a natural disaster borrows from abroad to increase imports of goods and services, the population suffers less when a natural disaster strikes. Natural disasters destroy goods and capital (e.g. food, machinery, buildings, and roads) in the country in which they occur. If imports of goods and services do not increase, then the population has less goods and services to consume following a natural disaster. By increasing imports, which are mirrored on the financial side by an increase in external debt, the population of a country that was struck by a natural disaster can smooth consumption. As the incidence of natural disasters increases globally, a policy recommendation for disaster-prone countries, supported by the empirical results of this paper, is the need for deeper and innovative mechanisms of access to international financing, including reforms in both domestic and international financial systems. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters, Shocks, Debt, Human Development |
| JEL: | F3 Q54 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2024-699&r= |
| By: | Maulana, Ardian; Hokky, Situngkir |
| Abstract: | This research aims to elucidate the organizational patterns of interregional economic interdependence to enhance our comprehension of the national economy's structure at a regional scale. Employing a multilayer network model, this study represents economic interdependence among Indonesian regions, utilizing the InterRegional Input-Output (IRIO) table. Through the application of various metrics, such as degree and strength distribution, assortativity coefficient, and global and local rich club coefficient, to the multilayer IRIO network, we uncover the organizational patterns of economic exchanges between provinces and economic sectors within Indonesia. Our findings demonstrate that a multilayer network approach reveals the heterogeneous and complex structure of the national economy at the regional level. By analyzing the assortativity pattern and global rich-club coefficient, we illustrate that the IRIO network exhibits a hierarchical organization, where significant provincial-sector nodes are interconnected and form dense rich clubs, extending from a few structural cores to peripheral regions. Additionally, we identify distinct connectivity patterns of non-rich nodes based on their incoming and outgoing relations. The insights gained from this study have implications for the macro-control of regional development. |
| Keywords: | Multilayer network; Spatial network; Interregional input-output table, Rich-club phenomenon, Hierarchical organization. |
| JEL: | C1 C40 E0 H4 H7 J1 O1 O4 P0 R1 R5 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121129&r= |
| By: | Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Intracontinental trade intensity and concentration are observed worldwide. It has been suggested that supply chain resilience to unexpected shocks be strengthened by enhancing international diversification of input sources. The major objective of this paper is to try to investigate the impact of trade liberalization and disruption on trade and supply chains by means of simulation studies using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, with the introduction of a few trade indicators. World import deviation from the expected least distorted state of trade would be reduced by trade liberalization but expanded by trade disruption, though to a small extent. That said, those impacts on import concentrations and deviations would be mixed at the regional levels. Regional tariff removals would create more import deviations, depending on the economy. The impact of trade disruption on import deviations would vary by economy. It is advised that supply chain resilience be considered by economy and by sector. Meanwhile, the development of analytical methodologies for study of the impact of policy measures on supply chains would be seen as issues for further study. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific, supply chain, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), US tariff hikes, trade sanctions on Russia, mining price increases, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:24-04&r= |
| By: | Kamil, Nurul Liyana Mohd; Beh, Loo See; Lai, Siow Li; Rahman, Nur Hairani Abd; Ali, Mohammad Asri Mohd |
| Abstract: | In today's rapidly evolving work environments, organisations recognize the critical importance of fostering psychological well-being and igniting work motivation among their employees. This study aims to explore the role of gender as a buffering effect in the association between employees’ psychological well-being and its work motivation. The study comprised 385 Malaysian public sector personnel as participants. While psychological well-being and work motivation are universal concerns, gender differences may shape the ways in which individuals perceive and respond to various organisational strategies and practices aimed at enhancing these outcomes. The study's results reveal a significant relationship between psychological well-being and employees' motivation, indicating that individuals with higher levels of environmental mastery exhibit greater drive and enhanced performance in the workplace. Interestingly, the study finds that female employees tend to have slightly lower levels of motivation compared to their male counterparts, although the difference is not statistically significant. These findings hold valuable implications for professionals and policymakers, shedding light on the intricate interplay between work motivation, individual performance, and well-being, particularly in the public sector. Furthermore, the study delves into the practical applications of human capital and organisational behaviour, offering actionable insights for leveraging these concepts to optimize employee motivation and productivity. |
| Keywords: | gender; performance; psychological well-being; public sector personnel; work motivation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123645&r= |