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on South East Asia |
| By: | Vuving, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This article examines how Vietnam has responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, how the war has impacted Vietnam’s foreign policy, and why Hanoi has behaved the way it has. It is organized into three major sections. The first discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on Vietnam’s strategic environment and grand strategy. It also outlines the broad contour of Vietnam’s grand strategy and identifies major possible directions along which Hanoi may steer its course in the future. The second section examines Russia’s unique role in Vietnam’s strategic calculus and Russian soft power in Vietnam. It also discusses the pre-war developments that strengthened Russia’s role and soft power, thus providing a larger context without which Vietnam’s responses to the war cannot be fully understood. The third section documents Vietnam’s domestic and foreign policy responses to the war. The article argues that although the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered diverse, even opposing, responses from Vietnam’s ruling elite, it has not changed the general direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy because it has not directly and fundamentally affected Vietnam’s quest for security, resources, and identity. However, the war posed moral and strategic dilemmas for Hanoi, tore the web of geopolitical partnerships upon which Vietnam relied to secure its place in the world, and threatened to shake Russia’s unique and critical role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. Hanoi responded by reinforcing the current paradigm of its foreign policy, performing a delicate balancing act between the great powers, and deepening ties with the major powerhouses in its surrounding region. In the long term, however, the costs of this “bamboo diplomacy” may outweigh its benefits. |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e3rf4&r= |
| By: | Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Dumalaog, Frances Camille G.; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M.; Ocbina, John Joseph S.; Librero, Kimberly R.; Generalao, Ian Nicole A.; Eñate, Chrislyn Joanna F. |
| Abstract: | Demand-driven technical and vocational education and training (TVET) has been associated with positive economic outcomes for the trainees and the participating firms and enterprises. Despite these potential positive implications, numerous studies consistently show the limited involvement of the private sector in training provision and curriculum development in the Philippines. Thus, this study examines the enterprise-based training (EBT) modality in the country by identifying the barriers to entry of industries in co-developing and offering upskilling programs and by evaluating existing incentive mechanisms. A series of key informant interviews and site visits with various stakeholders were conducted to identify prevailing issues and challenges that firms and industries face. To better contextualize the EBT situation, these were complemented by a desk review of the literature and the policy and legal framework governing EBT and an analysis of recent data. This study uncovers the multidimensional and interconnected issues surrounding the alarmingly dismal contribution of EBT to training provision. This study finds clear evidence that despite the abundance of financial and non-financial incentives, existing mechanisms have not been effective in attracting private actors, including firms/enterprises and technical vocational institutions (TVIs), to implement EBT programs. Other factors include gaps in the definition, scope, and measure of EBT, limited capacity of implementers, unresponsiveness of training programs, and intersectoral and interagency coordination concerns. This study has three main contributions. First, the elaborate discussion of the various EBT programs and the associated incentives can facilitate a better understanding and deeper appreciation of EBT. Second, policymakers can learn from and adopt good practices on industry involvement in TVET highlighted throughout the study. Finally, policy recommendations are formulated and presented to address the identified barriers and disincentives, which have persistently discouraged industry involvement in skills development. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | enterprise-based training;TVET;industry-led;barriers;incentives;EDCOM 2;technical and vocational education and training;Second Congressional Commission on Education |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-05&r= |
| By: | Ralph I. Lawton; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Teresa Seeman; Arun S. Karlamangla; Cecep Sumantri; Duncan Thomas |
| Abstract: | In order to shed light on the biological and social drivers underlying the dramatic rise in cardiovascular disease risk in lower-income settings, links between these risks and body composition, behavioral and socioeconomic factors in Aceh, Indonesia, are contrasted with the United States. We focus on rigorously-validated measures of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol among adults. Indonesians present with adverse cholesterol biomarkers relative to Americans, despite being younger and having lower body mass index. Adjusting for age, these gaps increase in magnitude. Body composition, behaviors, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics that affect cholesterol do not explain between-country HDL differences, but do explain non-HDL differences, after accounting for medication use. On average, gender differences are inconsistent across the two countries and persist after controlling observed characteristics. Leveraging the richness of the Indonesian data to draw comparisons between males and females within the same household, the gender gaps among Indonesians are not explained for HDL cholesterol, but attenuated substantially for non-HDL cholesterol. This finding suggests that unmeasured household resources play an important role in determining non-HDL cholesterol. More generally, they appear to be affected by social and biological forces in complex ways that differ across countries and potentially operate differently for HDL and non-HDL biomarkers. |
| JEL: | I1 I15 I18 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32489&r= |
| By: | Brummund, Peter (University of Alabama); Makowsky, Michael D. (Clemson University) |
| Abstract: | Participation in social groups ties members to local communities. Employers can capture these benefits as rents when geographically-specific club goods raise the cost of labor mobility. We measure ties to local clubs using the shares of households identifying with a minority religion, enrollment of children in Islamic schools, and membership in secular savings clubs. We identify larger wage markdowns where households have stronger ties to local club goods. Complementarity between labor market concentration and club goods offers an explanation of rising wage markdowns absent increasing concentration, while adding to the difficulty in separating monopsony rents from compensating wage differentials. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, imperfect competition, club goods, religion |
| JEL: | J42 J31 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16999&r= |
| By: | TAGUCHI, HIROYUKI |
| Abstract: | Servicification in global value chains (GVCs) in emerging and developing Asian economies has become a trend recently. However, there have been no scientific studies to elucidate the mechanism of servicification in GVCs. To fill this missing gap, this study aims at investigating the involvement of service sectors into GVCs in Asian economies in terms of the quantitative interactions between service inputs and manufacturing exports and inputs and between service inputs and service exports. For this purpose, a panel vector -autoregressive model and the Trade in Value Added (TiVA 2023) database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are used for the empirical analysis during 1995-2020. The estimation results find that, first, there exist reciprocal interactions between the business services and manufacturing sectors; foreign business service inputs are induced by manufacturing exports, whereas manufacturing inputs are induced by business service exports. Second, foreign manufacturing inputs facilitate foreign business service inputs. Third, business service inputs are promoted by business service exports. These trends in the involvement of business services’ involvement in GVCs have accelerated from the mid-2000s and are expected to expand toward the post-COVID-19 era. To enhance role of services in GVCs, Asian economies should facilitate the removal of explicit restrictions in service trade and address regulatory divergence across countries. |
| Keywords: | servicification; global value chains; emerging and developing Asian economies |
| JEL: | F14 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121004&r= |
| By: | Kunimoto, Takashi (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Zhang, Cuiling (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and show that it is also sufficient for a two-type model. We next show that the identified condition is not sufficient in general. Through a series of examples, we show that the imposition of ex post budget balance in a bilateral trade model induces a delicate interaction between interdependent values and correlated beliefs, so that the existence of incentive compatible, individually rational mechanisms becomes a very subtle problem. Finally, focusing on a model with linear valuations, we give the precise sense in which a possibility result under interdependent values is more fragile than that under private values. |
| Keywords: | bilateral trade; interdependence; correlation |
| JEL: | C72 D78 D82 |
| Date: | 2024–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:0000_000&r= |
| By: | Zou, Baoling (Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu); Mishra, Ashok K. (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | Worldwide, most farms are small and family-operated. This study discusses the future of smallholder agriculture in China, where most farms are small, and farms' parcels are fragmented. The study puts forward a framework of vertical division of labor and specialized production in agriculture. We posit that hiring machinery services could be a pathway to connect smallholders with modern agriculture and achieve food security in China. Using household-level data from China, this study examines the impact of hiring machinery services on farm productivity, food security, and rural households' welfare. Findings show that mechanization services increased rural Chinese families' food security and agricultural productivity. Hiring machinery services improves smallholders' income by influencing the input efficiency of maize production. At the same time, increased mechanization implied greater participation in off-farm work. In other words, more family labor and time are allocated to off-farm work, which results in higher total income and increased consumption expenditures. Our findings highlight the importance of technology to improve smallholder agriculture and food security, not only in China but also in other South and Southeast Asian countries. |
| Keywords: | production efficiency, machinery services, household welfare, food security |
| JEL: | Q12 C36 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17008&r= |
| By: | Kunimoto, Takashi (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Saran, Rene (Department of Economics, University of Cincinnati) |
| Abstract: | A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and almost sufficient condition for robust implementation in interim equilibria. We argue that strict robust monotonicity is strictly stronger than weak robust monotonicity, which further implies that, within general mechanisms, robust implementation in rationalizable strategies is more permissive than robust implementation in interim equilibria. The gap between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and that in interim equilibria stems from the strictly stronger nonemptiness requirement inherent in the latter concept. |
| Keywords: | Ex post incentive compatibility; rationalizability; interim equilibrium; robust implementation; weak rationalizable implementation; weak robust monotonicity |
| JEL: | C72 D78 D80 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_003&r= |
| By: | Sara Balestri (Dipartimento di Economia Internazionale, delle Istituzioni e dello Sviluppo, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & Centro Studi Economia Applicata (CSEA), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia - both regions being predominantly characterized by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities - spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence. |
| Keywords: | communal violence, vulnerability, climate change, conflicts, Africa, Asia |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0036&r= |
| By: | de Padua, David (Asian Development Bank); Kiocho, Mae Hyacinth (Asian Development Bank); Park, Donghyun (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the conditions under which tax revenues can enhance economic growth. Using a newly constructed dataset consisting of 135 economies and spanning the period 1990–2019, we study how changes in tax revenues impact economic growth using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. Tax revenues have a persistent positive impact on growth, and the association is especially pronounced in emerging economies. Strict inflation targeting, low-inflation, flexible exchange rates, a more developed financial sector, higher investment rates, and strong governance reinforce the growth-enhancing effect of taxes, but these results are conditional on the income level of the economy. Our findings imply that the effect of taxes on growth should be evaluated within macroeconomic and structural constraints. |
| Keywords: | taxes; growth |
| JEL: | H20 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0727&r= |
| By: | Kim, Kye Hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Yang, Jooyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China and the United States are both pursuing strategic de-risking to navigate the murky waters of their relationship, fraught with conflict but bound by trade. De-risking is essentially a kind of industrial policy that focuses on dominating advanced technologies and industries, protecting technologies and markets, and courting the support of like-minded nations. Washington’s de-risking strategy for the semiconductor and battery sectors focuses on bolstering the competitiveness of American industries via internalization, supply chain diversification, and deeper partnerships with allies and friendly nations. China meanwhile is working to navigate the US sanctions regime on technologies and supply chains by establishing China-centered industrial ecosystems and weaponizing key battery inputs, such as rare earths and other important minerals. In the chip sector, the reconfiguration of supply chains would simultaneously feature an accelerated decoupling in cutting-edge nodes and the creation of alternative supply chains in Southeast Asia and India that support mature nodes. Battery supply chains are likely to be reshaped by the rise of major regional blocs or markets (encompassing China, South Korea, and Japan) and concentration of technologies and manufacturing capacity in a few multinational corporations. Korea should pursue a five-pronged industrial policy to respond to these developments. First, it needs to invest in the establishment of vertically integrated industrial clusters. Doing so could transform the country into a trusted hub and middleman. Second, the Korean government should adopt an industrial policy that fosters these clusters. Third, Korea should strive to become a major production hub capable of meeting the high standards necessitated by new protectionist policies. Fourth, Korean firms should establish overseas bases of these integrated clusters as well. Finally, Korea should work to promote green technology partnerships as a viable alternative to the current international trade order. Only with a multifaceted and systematic de-risking policy can Korea hope to overcome the challenges posed by the fragmentation wreaking havoc in contemporary supply chains. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors; chips; batteries; EVs; China; US; Korea; US-China conflict; de-risking; supply chains; supply chain risk; supply chain diversification; industrial policy; supply chain weaponization; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L52 L62 L63 L65 L72 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_002&r= |
| By: | Rainald Borck (University of Potsdam, CESifo, CEPA); Peter Mulder (Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology. |
| Keywords: | pollution, energy policy, discrete choice, developing country cities |
| JEL: | Q53 Q54 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:78&r= |
| By: | David Reinstein; Anirudh Tagat; Anonymous |
| Abstract: | This summarizes the evaluations of the paper "Do Celebrity Endorsements Matter? A Twitter Experiment Promoting Vaccination In Indonesia" (2019). To read the evaluations, please see the links below. See the "Unjournal Process" section for notes on the versions of the paper evaluated. |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:alatasevalsum&r= |
| By: | Anirudh Tagat |
| Abstract: | This is an evaluation of "Do Celebrity Endorsements Matter? A Twitter Experiment Promoting Vaccination In Indonesia". |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:alatas-e2&r= |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China boasts an indomitable presence in the global market of critical mineral resources (CMRs). Not only is China a major producer of many of these rare minerals, but the country is also the largest importer and exporter of the minerals used in the manufacture of secondary battery materials. It is unlikely that any other country will topple China’s position in the global mineral market for some time. The United States, Europe, and Japan have been reconfiguring their CMR supply chains over the last several years with the aim of reducing their dependency on China. Korean EV battery makers import 80 to 90 percent of the CMRs they need from China. Washington has sought to restructure its CMR supply chains since it first openly declared its intent to contain China in 2017. Beijing has responded by restricting exports of key minerals and increasing investment in joint ventures with businesses overseas. The Korean government has sought to respond to the growing uncertainty cast by the US-China rivalry over CMR supply chains by designing its own strategy for securing access to CMRs. It has since made law the Special Act on the Security of National Resources, which lays the legislative foundation for an early warning system, stockpiling, import diversification, and infrastructure expansion. At the more fundamental level, however, Korea needs to increase its cooperation with resource-rich countries with a view to establishing an integrated CMR ecosystem. In the short term, however the Korean government needs to grow public stockpiles of key minerals and quickly nurture companies capable of refining and processing raw minerals. Policy support and incentives are also needed to encourage the private sector to grow its own stockpiles. In the long term, Korea needs to build and maintain trust with China and redesign policies to minimize the risks of supply crises. |
| Keywords: | critical mineral resources; CMR; US-China conflict; Korea; rare earths; battery materials; battery precursors; supply chains; international cooperation; Indonesia; Vietnam; India; stockpiling; mineral processing |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L65 L72 L78 Q34 Q37 Q38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_001&r= |
| By: | Anonymous |
| Abstract: | This is an anonymous evaluation of "Do Celebrity Endorsements Matter? A Twitter Experiment Promoting Vaccination In Indonesia". |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:alatas-e1&r= |