nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2024‒04‒08
eleven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar, Asian Development Bank

  1. Urbanization and Income Inequality By Takahiro Akita
  3. Investigating Japan’s Machinery and Equipment Exports after the Global Financial Crisis By Willem THORBECKE
  4. Export Dynamics and Invoicing Currency By Kazunobu Hayakawa; Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL; Toshiyuki Matsuura; Taiyo Yoshimi
  5. Pricing of geometric Asian options in the Volterra-Heston model By Florian Aichinger; Sascha Desmettre
  6. The Effect of Content Moderation on Online and Offline Hate: Evidence from Germany’s NetzDG By Jiménez Durán, Rafael; Muller, Karsten; Schwarz, Carlo
  7. Educational Expansion and Educational Inequality By Takahiro Akita
  8. Turnover-based corporate income taxation and corporate risk-taking By Siahaan, Fernando; Amberger, Harald; Sureth, Caren
  9. Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Management By Parrado, Eric; Heresi, Rodrigo
  10. An Exchange Rate Policy Rule By Parrado, Eric
  11. Der chinesisch-philippinische Konflikt um das Second-Thomas-Atoll: Ein Test für Washingtons Glaubwürdigkeit als Allianzpartner in der Region By Wirth, Christian

  1. By: Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan)
    Abstract: Using decomposable inequality measures, this study presents quantitatively the inverted U-shaped pattern of income inequality that emerges during a population shift from the low-income rural to the high-income urban sector (Kuznets process of urbanization). It investigates the effects of changes in the urban-rural income ratio and within-sector inequalities on the Kuznets process of urbanization. This study also examines urbanization and expenditure inequality in Indonesia using household-level data for 1996-2018. Our analysis reveals that if the urban-rural income ratio is relatively small while the urban-rural difference in income inequality is relatively large, then overall income inequality is likely to increase for a longer period of time as urbanization proceeds. Conversely, if the urban-rural income ratio is relatively large while the urban-rural difference in income inequality is relatively small, then overall income inequality is likely to peak at earlier stages of urbanization. Our analysis also reveals that the contribution of urban inequality to overall income inequality tends to increase as urbanization proceeds, though there may be some fluctuations due to changes in within- and between-sector inequalities. In Indonesia, the share of urban households has risen gradually from 36% to 55%. However, no systematic relationship is observed between the share of urban households and overall expenditure inequality, meaning that Indonesia fs household-level data does not support the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis. However, Indonesia fs household-level data shows that urbanization has been associated with a rising contribution of urban inequality and a declining contribution of between-sector inequality.
    Keywords: Keywords: urbanization, income inequality, Kuznets process of urbanization, decomposition of the Theil indices, household survey, Indonesia
    Date: 2024–03
  2. By: Iswanto, Dedy; Amol, Febriyanti; Sangadji, Suwandi S. (Universitas Nuku); Halawa, Forman
    Abstract: Technology has an important role to play in advancing sustainable tourism destinations. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of technology on tourism marketing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia which can be used as material for decisions by tourism practitioners and is useful for researchers in the tourism sector. This research was conducted using a systematic literature review (SLR) of 2 reference articles from Scopus. The results show no antecedents from tourism marketing that were studied during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, there is a positive influence of technology on tourism marketing during the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several consequences of technology adoption in tourism marketing: trust, visitors' interest, and tourist behavior. However, this research still has limitations on the reference sources used (only Scopus), so it is recommended to add a database for future researchers and other research problem formulations.
    Date: 2024–02–29
  3. By: Willem THORBECKE
    Abstract: Japan exports sophisticated capital goods. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Japanese companies have offshored the production of lower-end goods and parts and components to Asian countries. Because of this, Sato and Shimizu (2015) argued that a weaker yen no longer stimulates machinery exports as much because an increase in Japanese exports increases parts and components imports from overseas Asian subsidiaries. This paper finds that, after the GFC, a weaker yen no longer increases Japanese machinery exports to Asia but continues to stimulate exports outside of Asia. It also finds that, independent of its impact on exports, a weaker yen increases stock prices for many Japanese machinery producers. Thus the weaker yen since 2020 does not help Asian firms to import vital Japanese capital goods but does increase the profitability of Japanese manufacturers and their exports to non-Asian countries.
    Date: 2024–03
  4. By: Kazunobu Hayakawa (Institute of Developing Economies); Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute); Toshiyuki Matsuura (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University); Taiyo Yoshimi (Faculty of Economics, Chuo University)
    Abstract: This study explores the evolution of invoicing currency choice, focusing on inertia in invoicing currency and the role of export experience. We theorize that inertia in the producer fs currency pricing (PCP) weakens with lower forex risk management costs, whereas inertia in foreign currency pricing is more pronounced under similar conditions. For the export experience, exporters tend to adopt PCP when they start exporting if the costs are significant. Empirical analysis using firm-level export data in Thailand from 2007 to 2014 supports these predictions. Specifically, we show that the inertia in PCP diminishes with access to forward exchange contracts or when the importer fs currency has a higher forex turnover than the Thai baht. We also show that the tendency to adopt PCP in first exports diminishes under these conditions. Our findings imply that exporters initially prefer invoicing in their own currency, but this preference decreases as export experience accumulates or if there are financial tools or favorable currency turnover conditions.
    Keywords: Invoicing currency, Export dynamics, Inertia, Learning effect, Customs data
    JEL: F14 F31 F39
    Date: 2024–03–03
  5. By: Florian Aichinger; Sascha Desmettre
    Abstract: Geometric Asian options are a type of options where the payoff depends on the geometric mean of the underlying asset over a certain period of time. This paper is concerned with the pricing of such options for the class of Volterra-Heston models, covering the rough Heston model. We are able to derive semi-closed formulas for the prices of geometric Asian options with fixed and floating strikes for this class of stochastic volatility models. These formulas require the explicit calculation of the conditional joint Fourier transform of the logarithm of the stock price and the logarithm of the geometric mean of the stock price over time. Linking our problem to the theory of affine Volterra processes, we find a representation of this Fourier transform as a suitably constructed stochastic exponential, which depends on the solution of a Riccati-Volterra equation. Finally we provide a numerical study for our results in the rough Heston model.
    Date: 2024–02
  6. By: Jiménez Durán, Rafael (Universit`a Bocconi, Department of Economics, IGIER, Stigler Center); Muller, Karsten (National University of Singapore, Department of Finance); Schwarz, Carlo (Universit`a Bocconi, Department of Economics, IGIER, PERICLES, CEPR, CAGE)
    Abstract: We study the online and offline effects of content moderation on social media using the introduction of Germany’s “Network Enforcement Act†(NetzDG), which fines social media platforms failing to remove hateful posts. We show that the law transformed social media discourse: posts became less hateful, refugee-related content less inflammatory, and the use of moderated platforms increased. The NetzDG also had offline effects by reducing anti-refugee hate crimes by 1% for every standard deviation in exposure to far-right social media use. The law reduced hate crimes partly by making it harder for perpetrators to coordinate, without changing attitudes toward refugees.
    Keywords: Social Media, NetzDG, Content Moderation, Hate Crime, Refugees, Germany JEL Classification: L82, J15, O38
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan)
    Abstract: This study explores the relationship between educational expansion and educational inequality through the use of hypothetical examples. It also examines the relationship empirically based on a Barro and Lee dataset on educational attainment for Asian countries and economies. If individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education, the education Gini coefficient is likely to decline monotonically with educational expansion. In contrast, if we assume that they receive some sort of informal education equivalent to a small amount of formal education, then the education Gini coefficient is likely to exhibit an inverted U-shaped pattern. Transforming years of education into human capital using an exponential function could lead to the Gini coefficient of human capital exhibiting an inverted U-shaped pattern with respect to human capital expansion. On the other hand, the standard deviation of education is likely to display an inverted U-shaped pattern, whether individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education or not. The Barro and Lee dataset reveals that the standard deviation of education follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, even when individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education. In contrast, the education Gini coefficient demonstrates a downward-sloping pattern when individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education. However, when assigning one year to individuals without formal education, the education Gini coefficient displays an inverted U-shaped pattern. These empirical observations align with the conclusions drawn from hypothetical examples.
    Keywords: Keywords: educational expansion, educational inequality, education Gini coefficient, inverted U-shaped pattern, human capital inequality, Asian countries and economies
    Date: 2024–03
  8. By: Siahaan, Fernando; Amberger, Harald; Sureth, Caren
    Abstract: This study investigates the effect of a Turnover-based Corporate Income Tax (TbCIT) on corporate risk-taking. TbCIT is a simplified presumptive tax levied on a firm's turnover and commonly applied to SMEs and hard-to-tax income. Using a rich sample of Indonesian firms for the years 2009 to 2021, we provide evidence that corporate risk-taking is negatively associated with a firm's TbCIT exposure. The negative effect is stronger for firms in industries with high profit margins and firms with prior year losses. However, we find no association between risk-taking and the effective TbCIT rate. Overall, our findings extend prior research on the effects of limited risk sharing between taxpayers and the government by showing that turnover-based taxation can depress corporate risk-taking. Our study also informs policymakers about potential unintended consequences of adopting simplified, turnover-based tax regimes.
    Keywords: turnover-based tax, corporate income tax, risk-taking, SMEs taxation
    JEL: H25 H32 G32 O53
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Parrado, Eric; Heresi, Rodrigo
    Abstract: Singapore's unique monetary policy consists of a managed exchange rate framework that can be characterized as a Taylor-like reaction function with the nominal devaluation rate instead of the nominal interest rate as the main policy instrument. We build a small open economy New Keynesian model to estimate and characterize such a monetary rule from a welfare perspective. Welfare gains under an exchange rate rule (ERR) relative to the more standard interest rate-based Taylor rule (IRR) are unambiguously increasing in the degree of trade openness (defined as exports plus imports as a share of GDP). For Singapore, where trade openness is 280% of GDP, we estimate welfare gains of 1.48% of permanent consumption under an ERR. In a counterfactual thought experiment, we find that Chile, an established inflation-targeting economy using an IRR, would be better off under an ERR for any degree of openness above 100% (currently at 70%).
    Keywords: Monetary policy;Exchange rate management;Open economy macroeconomics
    JEL: E52 E58 F41
    Date: 2023–12
  10. By: Parrado, Eric
    Abstract: This paper introduces a novel monetary policy framework where the exchange rate becomes the central instrument. Using Singapore as a case study, it explores the Monetary Authority's adoption of the exchange rate as the primary tool since 1981, diverging from conventional approaches centered on interest rates or monetary aggregates. The estimated exchange rate reaction function aligns well with actual deviations, supporting the hypothesis that Singapore's forward-looking policy rule effectively responds to inflation and output volatility, especially during economic crises. This framework offers a promising alternative for countries with open economies and challenges in implementing traditional interest rate instruments.
    Keywords: exchange rate;Inflation;monetary policy rules;Singapore
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 F41
    Date: 2023–12
  11. By: Wirth, Christian
    Abstract: China setzt seine Versuche fort, die Gewässer des Südchinesischen Meeres innerhalb der sogenannten Nine-Dash Line zu territorialisieren und damit der eigenen Kontrolle zu unterwerfen. So entwickelt sich die Lage mit zunehmender Dynamik. Das im Second Thomas Shoal der Spratly-Inselgruppe von den Philippinen auf Grund gesetzte Schiff BRP Sierra Madre wird bald von Rost zersetzt verfallen. Die Frage drängt sich auf, wie Manila das atollförmige Riff ohne die Anwesenheit der bislang dort ausharrenden Soldaten gegen eine mögliche chinesische Besetzung schützen und so seinen rechtmäßigen Anspruch durchsetzen kann. Um gegen den übermächtigen Gegenspieler zu bestehen, ist der Beistand der USA unabdingbar. Diese Situation setzt die Entscheidungsträger in Washington unter Zugzwang. Eine nur symbolische Unterstützung würde die Glaubwürdigkeit der USA als Allianzpartner in der ganzen Region untergraben und das Risiko einer weiteren chinesischen Expansion in den Gewässern Ostasiens erhöhen.
    Keywords: Volksrepublik China, Philippinen, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika, Südchinesisches Meer, Second-Thomas-Atoll, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly-Inselgruppe, Nine-Dash Line, Territorialisierung
    Date: 2024

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