nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2024‒01‒22
28 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar, Asian Development Bank

  1. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0 By Ikumo Isono; Satoru Kumagai; Keita Oikawa
  2. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries By Raihan M. Ramadhan; Pyan A. Muchtar
  3. Redefining Indonesia's Digital Economy By Militcyano Samuel Sapulette; Pyan A. Muchtar
  4. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia By Ivana Markus; Pyan A. Muchtar
  5. RCEP and Indonesia: Economic Reform and Prospects for Implementation By Yose R. Damuri; Deni Friawan
  6. The Determinants of Financial Inclusion among Indonesian Muslim Households By Novat Pugo Sambodo; Riswanti Budi Sekaringsih; Meikha Azzani; Esa Azali Asyahid; Maulana Ryan Nurfahdhila
  7. Economy of Scale in Electricity Consumption of Households in Vietnam By Hoai Son Nguyen; Minh Ha-Duong; Xuân Tháng Nguyen
  8. Mortality from the 1944-1945 famine in Java, Indonesia By Pierre van der Eng
  9. Availability of Gender-Disaggregated Data on the ASEAN Digital Economy By Araba Sey
  10. Achieving Sustainable Competitive Advantage through Collaboration Strategy: Blue Economy Management in North Sulawesi, Indonesia By Darmasetiawan, Noviaty Kresna; Rianawati, Andri; Hadi, Faizal Susilo
  11. Asian American and Asian Diaspora Studies By Um, Khatharya
  12. Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in Vietnam By Ho Sy-Hoa; Idir Hafrad; Viet-Dung Tran
  13. Nudging for Prompt Tax Penalty Payment: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia By Eko Arief Yogama; Daniel J. Gray; Matthew D. Rablen
  14. Does Conditional Cash Transfer Have a Lasting Impact?: Evidence from Indonesia By Faradilla Rahma Sari; Diyah Putriani; Wisnu Setiadi Nugroho
  15. Priority setting in international trade – application of multiple criteria decision analysis for Australian-Indonesia trade in the health sector. By Bratanova, Alexandra; Cameron, Alicia; Thavat, Maylee; Fyfield, Amelia; Hajkowicz, Stefan
  16. COVID-19, Long-Term Care, and Migration in Asia By Azusa Sato; Helen Dempster
  17. Developing a Culture of Solidarity Through a Three-Step Virtuous Process: Lessons from Common Good-Oriented Organizations By S. Fremeaux; A. Grevin; R. Sferrazzo
  18. Trade Facilitation in APEC-exCRU By Robert Waschik; James Giesecke; Craig Emerson
  19. Assessing the Implications of a Global Net-Zero Transition for Developing Asia: Insights from Integrated Assessment Modeling By Emmerling , Johannes; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Drouet, Laurent; Raitzer , David; Pradhananga, Manisha
  20. Starting Small: Building a Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy By Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita; Corpus, John Paul P.
  21. Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios By Pradhananga , Manisha; Raitzer , David; Sebastian-Samaniego, Iva; Naval, Daryll
  22. Metode Penelitian Kualitatif By Alaslan, Amtai
  23. Are Households with Female Heads Really Poorer? By Alya Sakinah Zahirah; Muhammad Ryan Sanjaya
  24. Labour Productivity while Working from Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Sellamitha Riadinni; Eny Sulistyaningrum
  25. From waste to relief: unlocking the potential for food rescue in low- and middle-income countries By Bodach, Susanne; Athukorala, Aruni Narmada; Wickramaarachchi, Hasintha
  26. Gendered disciplinary apparatuses and carceral domesticities in Singapore’s labour-migration regime By Antona, Laura
  27. Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure Investments Using Customs Data: The Case of the Greater Mekong Subregion Corridor and the People’s Republic of China By Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin; Nose, Manabu; Sawada, Yasuyuki; Shangguan, Ruo
  28. Could Uncapped and Unremunerated Retail CBDC Accounts Disintermediate Banks? By Srichander Ramaswamy

  1. By: Ikumo Isono (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Satoru Kumagai (IDE-JETRO); Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People's Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a landlinked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
    Date: 2023–01–11
  2. By: Raihan M. Ramadhan (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Pyan A. Muchtar (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
    Date: 2023–01–10
  3. By: Militcyano Samuel Sapulette (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Pyan A. Muchtar (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The Indonesian digital economy is the largest and most attractive investment destination amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). The sector has grown more than fourfold in the last 4 years and has supported other sectors. Amid the exponential growth, digital businesses are facing what is called a 'tech winter' in which startups are likely to experience slowdowns or even bankruptcy. In addition, although the digital transformation helps businesses improve productivity and drive economic growth, it has consequences for employment and wages, particularly for less skilled workers. While the potential of the digital economy must be continuously harnessed, some key initiatives need to be implemented to mitigate its negative effects.
    Date: 2023–01–10
  4. By: Ivana Markus (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Pyan A. Muchtar (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia's economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy
    Date: 2023–01–10
  5. By: Yose R. Damuri (Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia); Deni Friawan (Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia)
    Abstract: The conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is very important for Indonesia as it may bring many benefits to the country. This paper is an attempt to see the role of domestic political-economy dynamics in facilitating and constraining Indonesia's decision to join, ratify, and implement a free trade agreement (FTA). It also seekssome understanding on whether an FTA can bring significant market liberalisation. This paper focuses on two areas of observation. First, it discusses the current progress of the legislative process and public acceptance of the RCEP agreement in Indonesia and how the process is influenced by the political economy dynamics of the country. Second, the paper also looks at the potential impacts of the agreement on Indonesia's current reform agenda, especially the recently passed Jobs Creation Law (Law No. 11/2020). For these observations, we conduct a content analysis on RCEP-related news published in two newspapers in Indonesia, namely Kompas and the Jakarta Post. In addition to content analysis, we also conducted interviews with stakeholders, including parliament members and government officials from the Ministry of Trade who have been actively involved in RCEP negotiations and the ratification process. The paper provides some remarks and recommendations for the future agenda of RCEP ratification and implementation in Indonesia
    Keywords: RCEP ratification process, economic reform, domestic political-economy dynamics, content analysis
    JEL: F13 F15 D72
    Date: 2023–01–10
  6. By: Novat Pugo Sambodo (Lecturer of Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Riswanti Budi Sekaringsih (Lecturer of Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University (UIN) Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta, and Research Associate at Pusat Kajian Ekonomika dan Bisnis Syariah (PKEBS/Center for Islamic Economics and Business Studies) of Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Meikha Azzani (Research Associate at Pusat Kajian Ekonomika dan Bisnis Syariah (PKEBS/Center for Islamic Economics and Business Studies) of Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Esa Azali Asyahid (Academic Assistant of Department of Economics and General Assistant at Pusat Kajian Ekonomika dan Bisnis Syariah (PKEBS/Center for Islamic Economics and Business Studies) of Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Maulana Ryan Nurfahdhila (Student of Department of Economics and Research Assistant at Pusat Kajian Ekonomika dan Bisnis Syariah (PKEBS/Center for Islamic Economics and Business Studies) of Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: This study empirically examines the determinants of financial inclusion among Indonesian Muslims using individual-level panel data. We investigated financial inclusion indicators such as borrowing from financial institutions, bank account ownership, the borrowed amount, and savings in financial services. We analysed data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) fourth (2007) and fifth (2014) waves, offering a comprehensive dataset with unique socio-economic variables. We used Ordinary Least Squares and Logit estimations to identify factors influencing individuals' access to financial services and the average borrowed amount. Our findings indicate that urban residents with higher wealth, predominantly males, have better access to financial services. Banks remain the primary source for loans among Indonesian Muslims. Access to commercial banks significantly impacts loan accessibility. Notably, Baitul Maal WatTamwil (BMT), an Islamic microfinance institution, enhances the probability of Indonesian Muslims accessing formal loans.
    Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Islamic Finance, Household, Muslim, Indonesia
    JEL: G51 Z12
    Date: 2023–12
  7. By: Hoai Son Nguyen (NEU - National Economics University [Hanoï, Vietnam]); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xuân Tháng Nguyen (NEU - National Economics University [Hanoï, Vietnam])
    Abstract: The study retests the economy of scale in electricity consumption under the tiered electricity pricing conditions with panel data constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) for the years 2014, 2016, and 2018. Using instrumental variables developed by McFadden, Puig, and Kirschner (1977) to represent tiered prices, the study has separated the impact of tiered pricing to estimate the economy of scale in electricity consumption of households in Vietnam from 2014 to 2018. The results show that even under the influence of tiered pricing, households still exhibit economies of scale in electricity consumption. With each additional member, the per capita electricity consumption of each household decreases by 5.36 kWh/month, equivalent to a 15% reduction. This result has a small deviation compared to the results estimated in other Asian countries such as China. Summary for policymakers: This study examines how of electricity consumption by Vietnamese households between 2014 and 2018 depends on households size, income and other factors. It utilizes instrumental variables to adjust for the effects of increasing block tariffs. The result confirm the existence of economies of scale in electricity use among Vietnamese households: each additional member in the household decreases the per capita power consumption by 15%. Results imply that the observed social trend towards smaller households may contributes to the electricity demand increase. Indeed, between 2014 and 2020, the average household size in Vietnam decreased, correlating with a large increase in per capita electricity consumption. However, the study finds that diseconomies of scale only explain a small part (5%) of the households electricity demand increase. The majority of the increase is due to other factors, such as the number of households, their income growth, and urbanization.
    Abstract: Nghiên cứu kiểm định lại tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện dưới điều kiện giá điện bậc thang với số liệu mảng được xây dựng từ Khảo sát mức sống dân cư (VHLSS) của ba năm 2014, 2016 và 2018. Sử dụng biến công cụ do McFadden, Puig và Kirschner (1977) phát triển để đại diện cho giá bậc thang, nghiên cứu đã phân tách được tác động của giá bậc thang để ước tính được tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện của các hộ gia đình tại Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2014 đến năm 2018. Kết quả cho thấy, ngay cả dưới ảnh hưởng của giá bậc thang, các hộ gia đình vẫn có tính kinh tế theo quy mô trong tiêu dùng điện. Với mỗi thành viên tăng thêm, lượng điện tiêu thụ trên đầu người của mỗi hộ sẽ giảm đi 5, 36 kWh/tháng, tương đương với lượng giảm 15%. Kết quả này có sai biệt không lớn với các kết quả đã được ước lượng tại các nước châu Á khác như Trung Quốc.
    Keywords: Economy of scale, electricity demand function, tiered pricing, Vietnamese households.
    Date: 2023–11
  8. By: Pierre van der Eng
    Abstract: This paper examines the human toll of the 1944-1945 famine in Java, Indonesia’s main island. It estimates birth and death rates for the Indonesian population in Java during 1941-1951. Using the net population loss method, the paper approximates a net loss of 3.4 million people during the 1942-1945 Japanese occupation period, including 1.9 million excess deaths; 0.7 million during 1944 and 1.2 million during 1945. The residual 1.5 million were missing births in 1944 and 1945, associated with the malnutrition of women of childbearing ages and the physical separation of wives from husbands recruited by Japanese authorities for forced labour.
    Keywords: famine, malnutrition, Java, Indonesia, Japanese occupation
    Date: 2024–01
  9. By: Araba Sey (Principal Research Scientist, Information School, University of Washington, Seattle)
    Abstract: All Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States acknowledge the importance of gender data for policymaking on women's economic empowerment and full integration into the economy, and are instituting measures to improve the collection and use of disaggregated data. Considering the central role of the digital economy, it is imperative that any improvements in gender data collection include the production of data on the digital economy. This paper discusses the importance of gender data for the pursuit of gender equality in the digital economy and summarises the current availability of sex-disaggregated data on digital access, skills, and economic activity in the ASEAN region. The results show that there is uneven availability of sex-disaggregated data on the ASEAN digital economy in most global databases. Alternative data sources, such as big data, could help to fill data gaps but should be used with care due to unresolved concerns relating to data bias, privacy, and security.
    Keywords: gender data, disaggregated data, digital economy, ASEAN
    JEL: C8 L86 O53
    Date: 2023–01–10
  10. By: Darmasetiawan, Noviaty Kresna; Rianawati, Andri; Hadi, Faizal Susilo
    Abstract: The extraordinary sea potential is owned by the City of Bitung, North Sulawesi, both from fisheries and tourism. This potential is well known to foreign countries, so it has the opportunity to become the flagship of the blue economy in Indonesia. This paper explores the role of collaboration strategy (CS) theory and resource-based view (RBV), which are the basis for formulating and creating competitive advantage to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. The type of research used was a qualitative research approach; the data collection was conducted through focus group discussion methods and in-depth interviews with stakeholders of entrepreneurs who engaged in the fisheries sector, marine tourism, government, and academics. The collaboration strategy theory is poised to play a crucial role in managing marine resources in Indonesia, particularly as the nation focuses on its blue economy flagship to gain a competitive advantage for sustainable development. This is especially evident in enhancing knowledge acquisition, which is essential for improving knowledge-based products among cluster members in the blue ocean economy. This research explores the contributions of the collaboration strategy and the resource-based view to the primary strategy in blue economy management, aiming to attain a sustainable competitive advantage.
    Date: 2023–12–10
  11. By: Um, Khatharya
    Keywords: Arts and Humanities, University of California, Berkeley, 150 Years of Women, Diaspora, Asian Americans
    Date: 2023–12–18
  12. By: Ho Sy-Hoa (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]); Idir Hafrad; Viet-Dung Tran
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the measure of exchange rate pass-through on consumer price for Vietnam using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Dynamic Lag from 2000Q4 to 2018Q2. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (i) we demonstrate the existence of the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate to domestic price in both short run and long run; (ii) the exchange rate pass-through is high; (iii) the impact of exchange rate depreciation on domestic price is stronger than appreciation; (iv) the exchange rate pass-through is higher in the long run than in the short run; and (v) foreign competitor price plays an important role in domestic price movement.
    Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, Asymmetric Exchange Rate, ARDL models, NARDL models, Vietnam
    Date: 2022–08–26
  13. By: Eko Arief Yogama; Daniel J. Gray; Matthew D. Rablen
    Abstract: We conducted a randomised controlled trial in Indonesia to evaluate the effect of three intervention letters on tax penalty compliance behaviour. Over 10, 000 individual taxpayers are randomly assigned to receive either a deterrence, information, or simplification letter, or no letter. Our results indicate that simplification, which makes paying a penalty less burdensome administratively by providing billing codes to pay the penalties, yields the highest probability of timely settlement, increasing compliance by 32 per cent compared to the control group. Deterrence also positively impacts penalty compliance, increasing timely settlement rates by 27 per cent. The least effective intervention is the information letter. Although associated with a 12 per cent increase in tax compliance, this effect is only statistically significant at the 10 per cent confidence level. Our results suggest that strategic messaging by tax authorities in developing countries can be a cost-effective tool for improving tax penalty payment compliance.
    Keywords: tax penalties, tax compliance, RCT, simplification, deterrence, information, Indonesia
    JEL: C93 D91 H26 Z18
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Faradilla Rahma Sari (Master of Science and Doctorate, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Diyah Putriani (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Wisnu Setiadi Nugroho (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: This study aims to estimate the impact of program cessation on the behavior of Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) beneficiaries. We utilize the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) models to overcome potential bias in the estimation results. We use household longitudinal data from the PKH implementation pilot study. The results show that program cessation has a significant positive impact on the share of expenditure on food and the probability of children not attending school, as well as reducing the share of expenditure on education. On the other hand, program cessation has no impact on the utilization of health services, the share of expenditure on health, and the share of expenditure on milk and eggs. These findings indicate that the impact of PKH on behavior related to health tends to continue, while for behavior related to education it does not.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Transfer, Transfers, Welfare, Poverty, Health, Education
    JEL: D15 I38
    Date: 2023–12
  15. By: Bratanova, Alexandra; Cameron, Alicia; Thavat, Maylee; Fyfield, Amelia; Hajkowicz, Stefan
    Abstract: We demonstrate a use case of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in collaboration with industry stakeholders in forums as a way in which governments can undertake a 'soft' industry policy in international trade given the complex and changing global environment, and facilitate, rather than steer, the prioritisation of sector-specific facilitation. International trade is increasingly a balancing act with multiple competing objectives including security with open competition, economic growth with inclusion, and social and environmental protection. Post-pandemic, government efforts to stimulate export-led recovery and refine trade priorities within the rule bound by members of the World Trade Organisation are set to ramp up. To assist governments, guide their limited resources we advocate for the use of MCDA to assist with greater trade policy transparency and enable strategic decision making between multiple stakeholders While MCDA is often used in areas such as healthcare and environmental resourcing, it is not widely used in international trade. We demonstrate the use of MCDA to determine potential trade priorities in the healthcare sector under the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. MCDA was applied in real-time during online workshops hosted by Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade with 38 industry stakeholders. The pilot determined clear priorities for trade promotion in a transparent process. These are discussed along with the potential to further develop and apply MCDA and the limitations of the analysis for effective use in international trade.
    Keywords: multiple criteria decision analysis; international trade; Australia; Indonesia; healthcare
    JEL: F1 F14 F15 F63 I10
    Date: 2023–12
  16. By: Azusa Sato (Center for Global Development); Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Countries throughout Asia are experiencing rapidly aging populations and increasing life expectancy, leading to a large and growing demand for long-term care (LTC) services. Despite the shift to providing care within communities and at home, governments are struggling to provide enough LTC to meet demand. A large part of the constraint is the lack of available workers. While many countries in the region have migration schemes to bring in LTC workers, they are insufficient. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an outsized impact on older people throughout the region, and has exposed deficiencies in the structure of migrant care labor. This report explores the impact of these three dynamics—LTC, migration, and COVID-19—on the current and future LTC workforce in the Asian region. It showcases 11 countries of origin and destination, including the demand for and supply of LTC, how it is financed and resourced, and where and how migrant workers are sourced. It puts forward recommendations for how governments throughout Asia can ethically and sustainably increase LTC worker migration; improve wages, working conditions, and recruitment processes within the sector; and learn lessons from COVID-19.
    Date: 2022–05–09
  17. By: S. Fremeaux (Audencia Business School); A. Grevin; R. Sferrazzo (Audencia Business School)
    Abstract: Solidarity is a principle oriented toward the common good that ensures that each person can have the necessary goods and services for a dignified life. As such, it is very often approached in a theoretical manner. In this empirical study, we explored the development of a culture of solidarity within an organizational context. In particular, we qualitatively investigated how a culture of solidarity can concretely spread within and beyond organizations by conducting 68 semi-structured interviews with members of three common good-oriented organizations located in the Philippines, Korea, and Paraguay. We found that a culture of solidarity develops through a three-step process that includes constructing the solidarity mission, sharing solidarity, and disseminating solidarity, which together form a virtuous circle. We further found that solidarity is not supported by constrained, instrumentalized, or sacrificial actions, but can instead be a free, authentic, and fulfilling way for members of an organization to flourish while serving the mission of their company.
    Keywords: Common good, Culture of solidarity, Economy of Communion (EoC), Logic of gift, Solidarity
    Date: 2023–12
  18. By: Robert Waschik; James Giesecke; Craig Emerson
    Abstract: Much of APEC's development has been driven by the so-called Bogor Goals (1994): 1: Free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific no later than 2010 in the case of industrialised economies and 2020 in the case of developing economies; 2: Expansion and acceleration of trade and investment facilitation programs; and 3: Intensified development cooperation to attain sustainable growth, equitable development, and national stability. This working paper focuses on the adoption of trade facilitation measures by a subset of APEC members, comprising all 21 APEC economies other than China, Hong Kong, Russia and the United States. Hereafter, we refer to this grouping as "APEC-exCRU". Our motivation for examining trade policy reform in APEC-exCRU is to explore the magnitudes of gains available to APEC members in situations in which geostrategic competition might preclude participation by China, Russia and the US. To provide context for the magnitude of the potential gains from trade facilitation reforms, we also undertake simulations in which regions within APEC-exCRU eliminate tariffs.
    Keywords: APEC, Trade Policy Reform, CGE modelling,
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2023–11
  19. By: Emmerling , Johannes (European Institute on Economics and the Environment); Reis, Lara Aleluia (European Institute on Economics and the Environment); Drouet, Laurent (European Institute on Economics and the Environment); Raitzer , David (Asian Development Bank); Pradhananga, Manisha (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world’s fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2°C. Under an efficient approach to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, the power sector would almost fully decarbonize by mid-century, and emissions from land use would strongly fall. Although the climate has a lagged response to emissions reductions, climate benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 3, with gains concentrated in the lowest-income subregions of Asia. Air quality would also improve, saving about 0.35 million lives in the region by 2050. Including these co-benefits raises the benefit–cost ratio for Asia under ambitious decarbonization to 5. Energy-related employment also rises during the transition. However, appropriate policies are needed to address potential effects on disadvantaged groups.
    Keywords: climate change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; energy; land use; net-zero; NDCs
    JEL: C61 D58 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2023–12–18
  20. By: Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita; Corpus, John Paul P.
    Abstract: This study presents a small macroeconometric model of the Philippines. The model covers the basic parts of the economy—namely, private consumption and investment, international trade, employment, prices, and basic monetary sectors. Behavioral equations are estimated in error-correction form (using Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology) on quarterly data from 2002 to 2017. The model’s validity is evaluated through various simulation exercises. It generates satisfactory in-sample and out-of-sample predictions for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index inflation, and employment rate but is less successful in tracking the movement of domestic interest rates. The model also shows plausible responses to exogenous shocks emanating from government consumption, world oil prices, and global GDP. Briefly, a government spending shock elicits increases in investment and imports, a shock to world oil prices generates faster inflation, while a global recession is transmitted to the domestic economy mainly through lower exports and investment. The next steps needed to extend the model beyond improving the existing blocks include developing the supply side, incorporating expectations, and adding fiscal and financial blocks.
    Keywords: macroeconometric model;Philippine economy;forecast;simulation
    Date: 2023
  21. By: Pradhananga , Manisha (Asian Development Bank); Raitzer , David (Asian Development Bank); Sebastian-Samaniego, Iva (Asian Development Bank); Naval, Daryll (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Unless developing Asia decarbonizes its development, global warming is unlikely to stay below the internationally agreed limit of 2°C above preindustrial levels. Integrated assessment modeling offers insights into how a low carbon transition can be achieved. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious model intercomparison effort that compiled thousands of model-scenario combinations to consider low carbon development pathways. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider decarbonization pathways for developing Asia. Overall, a comparison of the major models finds strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector required to achieve Paris Agreement goals. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation efforts are efficient, as assumed in the models.
    Keywords: climate change; integrated assessment model; mitigation; energy; Paris Agreement; NDCs
    JEL: C61 D58 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2023–12–22
  22. By: Alaslan, Amtai
    Abstract: KATA PENGANTAR Alhamdulillahirobbil alamin, kita panjatkan puji syukur ke khadirat Allah SWT buku yang ditulis para penulis hebat ini tersaji ke tangan pembaca. Buku ini membahas tentang Metode Penelitian, khususnya Metode Penelitian Kualitatif yang saat ini sudah banyak tersajikan di berbagai perpustakaan maupun toko - toko buku di seantero negeri ini. Namun, satu keunikan dari buku ini, buku ini berisi inti sari dari metode kualitatif yang sangat mudah dipahami oleh para peneliti, dosen maupun para mahasiswa yang akan melakukan penelitian di lapangan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif. Buku ini dapat dimanfaatkan dan sangat berguna untuk memahami dan menyelami keunikan dunia kualitatif yang akhir-akhir ini banyak diminati oleh para peneliti, khususnya peneliti ilmu sosial. Untuk memudahkan pemahaman, buku terdiri dari beberapa bab, di mana bab-bab tersebut disusun secara berurutan dari awal hingga akhir untuk memudahkan para pembaca menekuni dan menelisik dunia penelitian kualitatif. Namun, keunikan dari buku ini, para pembaca dapat memahami dan membacanya secara acak sesuai kebutuhan pembaca masing-masing untuk memperdalam dan memahami metode penelitian kualitatif ini. Meskipun pendekatan dan model-model penelitian kualitatif saat ini banyak tersebar di berbagai media. Namun, para penulis di dalam buku ini, mereka menjelaskan tahapan dan metode kerjanya dengan bahasa yang lugas dan mudah dipahami oleh para pembaca, khusunya para pemula yang akan melakukan penelitian dengan metode kualitatif. Jujur, saat ini, sejumlah skripsi, tesis, bahkan disertasi serta berbagai artikel jurnal juga telah banyak tersaji dan ditulis ii | Metode Penelitian Kualitatif oleh sejumlah peneliti dan mahasiswa dengan menggunakan pendekatan ini. Namun, buku yang ada di tangan pembaca saat ini, tidak akan lekang oleh waktu dan mudah dinikmati karena ditulis dengan bahasa sederhana dan contoh-contoh konkret dan tidak terlalu berteletele oleh para penulisnya. Sebagai buku metode, buku ini dapat dipandang sebagai buku yang cukup komprehensif. Semua aspek mulai dari tahap awal hingga model analisisnya sudah dibahas di dalamnya. Di antara kelebihan buku ini adalah bahwa ia memuat prosedur dan analisis kualitatif yang mungkin terasa berat dipahami bila membaca buku-buku teks aslinya. Harapan dari terbitnya buku ini tentunya adalah semoga buku ini dapat turut memenuhi kebutuhan keilmuan akademik, khususnya untuk mengisi buku-buku metode kualitatif dan dapat memberikan manfaat sebaik-baiknya bagi para pembacanya. Kami memberikan apresiasi kepada para penulis yang sudah berkontribusi dengan berbagai pengalamannya masing?masing, semoga karya ini menjadi amal jariyah bagi para penulisnya untuk turut mencerdaskan bangsa ini. Editor
    Date: 2023–09–30
  23. By: Alya Sakinah Zahirah (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Muhammad Ryan Sanjaya (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: The share of poor families with female heads of household is steadily increasing, from 14.41% in 2013 to 16.72% in 2019. This is in contrast to the declining poverty rate over the same period. We examine whether families with female heads of household tend to be less prosperous than those with male household heads using the wealth index constructed from the 2019 National Socioeconomic Survey data. In contrast to the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory, we find that households with female heads are more likely to be wealthier than those with male heads, even after controlling for sociodemographic factors of household heads as well as household characteristics. This finding sheds some light on the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory in the context of developing Asian countries.
    Keywords: gender, feminization of poverty theory, wealth index
    JEL: B54 I31 I32 J16
    Date: 2023–12
  24. By: Sellamitha Riadinni (Master of Development Economics Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada); Eny Sulistyaningrum (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
    Abstract: This study aims to determine how the implementation of WFH (Work From Home) affects individual work productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. National Labour Force Survey (Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional/Sakernas) data for February 2021 were used in this study. In February 2021, the Sakernas questionnaire was added with questions related to the impact of COVID-19 on employment. This study used the instrumental variable analysis method, which accommodates the issue of endogeneity in the model and working in a crowded place (work_crowded) used as the instrument variable. The estimation results obtained through IV regression show that WFH significantly has a positive effect on work productivity. The group of respondents who implemented WFH in their work system, on average, has statistically higher productivity when compared to the group of respondents who did not implement WFH.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, WFH, Productivity, Instrumental Variable
    JEL: J0 J3 J6 D2 I1
    Date: 2023–12
  25. By: Bodach, Susanne; Athukorala, Aruni Narmada; Wickramaarachchi, Hasintha
    Abstract: Food rescue has emerged as a promising approach to address the interrelated issues of food insecurity and food waste. According to the food waste hierarchy, the next best strategy after food waste prevention is to donate surplus food for human consumption. However, while some countries have well-established networks of charities and government support to promote surplus food donation and food rescue in most developing countries is often less structured and smaller in scale. To gain insights into the current landscape of food rescue, this study thoroughly examined existing food rescue operations and systems, mainly from the UK, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and the Philippines. The study also analysed several countries' food rescue policy environments to understand how an enabling environment can be created. A particular focus was set on food safety being a critical consideration when rescuing and donating surplus food. Simplified food safety guidelines, staff training, and adequate storage and transportation facilities are crucial to food safety. Effective partnerships between food rescue organizations, food businesses, government agencies, and other stakeholders are also critical to the success of food rescue efforts. The study found a need to develop such partnerships in developing countries, where they may be less established than in the Global North. To facilitate the development of an enabling environment for food rescue in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the study developed a set of templates, including relevant food safety guidelines, partnership contracts, and policy templates. These resources can serve as valuable tools for stakeholders in LMICs to promote and enhance food rescue efforts that can help address food insecurity and reduce food waste.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2023–09–20
  26. By: Antona, Laura
    Abstract: It is widely acknowledged that Singapore’s labour-migration regime is unequal and bifurcated, with migrants that are categorised as foreign professionals afforded many more rights than those categorised as migrant workers. While migrant construction, process, and shipyard workers are expected to reside in dormitories or other shared accommodation, migrant domestic workers are mandated to live in their employers’ homes, where their gendered bodies are confined and disciplined. Based on ethnographic fieldwork, in this article I demonstrate that Singapore’s labour-migration regime is underpinned with a carceral logic that imposes bodily controls on domestic workers through policy, legal regulations, and practices which, I argue, constitute gendered disciplinary apparatuses. Moreover, by examining migrant domestic workers’ everyday experiences, I suggest that different dwelling spaces – namely, employers’ homes and shelters – can be conceptualised as carceral domesticities. Utilised by the state as carceral infrastructure, I show the ways in which these dwelling spaces become geographies of detainment and punishment, in/through which different actors become involved in disciplining intimacy, morality, and maintaining socio-racial order in the nation. Simultaneously, the carceral nature of the labour-migration regime produces forms of domesticity which relies on the containment of migrant workers.
    Keywords: carcerality; confinement; domesticity; home; labour-migration; Singapore; Sage deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–12–02
  27. By: Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim (Asian Development Bank); Kucheryavyy, Konstantin (University of Tokyo); Nose, Manabu (International Monetary Fund); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Shangguan, Ruo (Jinan University)
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence of the effects of road construction on both domestic and international trade flows in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using customs data and information on transport investments in the region, including those supported by multilateral development banks. We find that road construction helped to reduce trade costs significantly from 2000 to 2011, supporting the catch-up of inland regions in the PRC to its coastal cities. The ad valorem rate of internal trade costs decreases by 20%, and the ad valorem rate of international trade costs decreases, on average, by 15.3%, with substantial heterogeneity of effects across sectors. Using satellite and customs data, we also document that the construction of the Kunming–Bangkok Expressway led to local economic growth and higher regional specialization in accordance with comparative advantage, suggesting the role of the road construction in facilitating market integration across borders in the Greater Mekong Subregion.
    Keywords: development impact; infrastructure; economic growth; trade; job creation; regional specialization; market integration
    JEL: F10 F13 R40 R41
    Date: 2023–12–20
  28. By: Srichander Ramaswamy (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre)
    Abstract: One of the challenges of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is its potential to disintermediate banks through deposit substitution. To avoid this outcome, much of the research on CBDC is focused on whether and what limits to set on CBDC holdings, and if CBDC accounts should be paid interest. But the issuance of CBDC can also generate significant fiscal revenue through central bank balance sheet expansion if they are funded by unremunerated CBDC liabilities. This can lead to a criticism of central bank policies and can potentially compromise its independence. Taking the view that a significant share of unremunerated bank demand deposits can migrate to retail CBDC account if there are no restrictions on the holding amounts, this paper raises and provides some indicative answers to a number of policy questions that arise in this setup. These include the following: Will the commercial bank’s money creation process et disrupted? How will it impact the efficient transmission of monetary policy? What role can central banks play to ensure that the demand for credit in the economy is met at reasonable price terms? Will non-bank actors be able to offer better terms and conditions for loans than banks in the changed intermediation landscape brought about by CBDC? What levers will central banks have to control non-bank actors so that they do not amplify procyclical lending behaviour? Will the remit of central banks need to broaden in scope and reach? We will explore the options and alternatives that might emerge while highlighting what the challenges might be.
    Keywords: Central banks, digital currency, financial stability, monetary policy, bank intermediation, non-banks, collateral.
    JEL: E42 E51 E52 G21 G23
    Date: 2024–01

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