nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2024‒01‒15
thirty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar, Asian Development Bank

  1. Developing the Blue Economy in Indonesia By Canyon Keanu Can; Teguh Dartanto
  2. Building and Enhancing Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems in ASEAN: A Preliminary Scoping Study By Masanori Kozono; Kentaro Yamada; Siti Mustaqimatud Diyanah
  3. ASEAN Digital Community 2040 By Lili Yan Ing; Ivana Markus
  4. A Look Back on 50 years of ROK-Indonesia Partnership and its Future By Kim, Hyuck-Hwang; Kim, Hyuck-Hwang; Kim, So Eun; Choi, Kyunghee
  5. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration By Mima Sefrina
  6. ASEAN's Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis By Ikumo Isono; Satoru Kumagai
  7. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework By Fachry Abdul Razak Afif; Venkatachalam Anbumozhi; Dongmei Chen; Alin Halimaussadiah; Vida Hardjono; Roes E.G. Lufti; Dian Lutfiana; Julio Mauricio; Alloysius Joko Purwanto; Prof. Widodo Wahyu Purwanto; Jitendra Roychoudhury; Citra Endah Nur Setyawati; Majed Al Suwailem; Wing T. Woo
  8. Fostering ASEAN's Digital Future through Cybersecurity Policies and Human Empowerment By Michelle Chandra Kasih
  9. The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia: A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal? By Annika Seiler; Hannah Brown; Samuel Matthews
  10. Sustainable Blue Economy Development in Cambodia: Status, Challenges, and Priorities By Kongchheng Poch; Sothea Oum
  11. ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045 By Lili Yan Ing; Imam Pambagyo; Yessi Vadila; Ivana Markus; Livia Nazara
  12. Do Management Interventions Last? Evidence from Vietnamese SMEs By Yuki Higuchi; Vu Hoang Nam; Tetsushi Sonobe
  13. Malaysia's Blue Economy: Position, Initiatives, and Challenges By Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam; Muhammad Rias K.V. Zainuddin; Tamat Sarmidi
  14. Development of the Blue Economy in Viet Nam By Vo Tri Thanh
  15. Developing a National Blue Economy Framework for Lao PDR By Aloun Phonvisay
  16. Adoption of Sustainable Practices for Improving Agricultural Productivity in Viet Nam By Huong-Giang Pham; Tuong-Anh T. Nguyen; Hoang-Nam Vu
  17. Economic Impacts of Overseas Labor Migration on Household Income and Expenditure in the Philippines By Nicola Daniele Coniglio
  18. Violent Conflict and Parochial Trust: Lab-in-the-Field and Survey Evidence By Katharina Werner; Ahmed Skali
  19. Productivity Effects of Viet Nam's Rice Land Restrictions By Peter Warr; Huy Quynh Nguyen
  20. The behavioral intention to adopt Proptech services in Vietnam real estate market By Le Tung Bach
  21. The right to benefit: Using videos to encourage citizen involvement in resource revenue management By Christa Brunnschweiler; Nanang Kurniawan; Paivi Lujalac; Primi Putri; Sabrina Scherzer; Indah Wardhani
  22. Warming or Cooling on World Bank Climate Finance: What Drives Country Demand? By Clemence Landers; Karen Mathiasen; Samuel Matthews
  23. Impacts of FDI Presence and Product Sophistication on the Demand for Skilled and Unskilled Labour: Evidence from SMEs in Viet Nam By Quang Hoan Truong; Van Chung Dong
  24. Societal Aging and its Impact on Singapore By Cynthia Chen; Julian Lim; Abhijit Visaria; Angelique Chan
  25. Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Indonesia's Highways By Paul J. Gertler; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Tadeja Gracner; Alexander D. Rothenberg
  26. Structural Transformation and the Global Production Value Chain: Potential Impact of the Cambodia-Republic of Korea FTA on Cambodia By Shandre Mugan Thangavelu; Vutha Hing
  27. How Far Has Globalization Gone? A Tale of Two Regions By Rodolfo Campos; Samuel Pienknagura; Jacopo Timini
  28. Gender Integration in Multilateral Development Banks’ COVID-19 Response Efforts By Shelby Bourgault; Megan O’Donnel; Mia Griffin
  29. Forest-Based Carbon Markets: Pitfalls and Opportunities By Mauricio Cárdenas; Juan José Guzmán Ayala
  30. 국내 전략산업 투자유치 인센티브 개편 방향(Reforming Incentive Policies to Increase FDI in Korea’s Strategic Industries) By Kim, June Dong; Lee, Seong-Bong; Kim, Hyuck-Hwang
  31. How Do Non-DAC Actors Cooperate on Development? By Rachael Calleja; Beata Cichocka; Sara Casadevall Bellés
  32. Child Labour Among Afghan Refugee Children: Investigating the Underlying Drivers By Muhammad Zeshan

  1. By: Canyon Keanu Can (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Teguh Dartanto (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia)
    Abstract: During Indonesia's chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, it has highlighted the blue economy as a key sector for the region's sustainable future. A greener and bluer economy requires both environmental and societal balance. In prioritising the sector, Indonesia recognises both the steep challenges and the abundant potential associated with the blue economy, alongside the need for international and inter-sectoral cooperation to fully leverage the sector's capacity for a more inclusive and equitable future. This brief explores Indonesia's existing progress in harnessing its blue economy, what challenges lie ahead, and what strategic initiatives Indonesia must undertake to pave a pathway towards a blue economic transformation.
    Date: 2023–08–02
  2. By: Masanori Kozono (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Kentaro Yamada (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Siti Mustaqimatud Diyanah (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: 'ASEAN Regional Guidelines for Sustainable Agriculture in ASEAN' were adopted at the 44th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry on 26 October 2022. The successful implementation of these guidelines necessitates the development of a practical action plan. To assist ASEAN in implementing these guidelines and provide valuable insights for the action plan's development, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia conducted a preliminary scoping study. This study aimed to identify key technology and policy areas, assess the current status of sustainable agriculture, and recommend initiatives for achieving sustainable and circular agriculture. The study findings highlight the prevalence of specific initiatives, significant disparities in initiatives between Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam (CLMV) and non-CLMV countries, and prioritised strategies amongst the 28 key strategies outlined in the Guidelines. The action plan should outline practical actions aligned with the priority strategies, complete with achievable targets and timelines.
    Date: 2023–11–29
  3. By: Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Ivana Markus (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries' preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
    Date: 2023–02–02
    Abstract: South Korea (hereafter Korea) and Indonesia are commemorating the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic ties in 2023. Since establishing a strategic partnership in 2006, the two nations have cultivated strong bonds based on mutual trust and respect. Recognizing the deepening common interests and shared strategic values, Korea and Indonesia upgraded their bilateral relations to a "special strategic partnership" in 2017. This move is particularly significant against the backdrop of heightened strategic competition between the U.S. and China, where Indonesia has emerged as a key partner for Korea to diversify its economic and diplomatic engagements. The challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with disruptions in the global supply chain caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, have further underscored Indonesia's importance as a critical collaborator for Korea in supply chain cooperation. From Indonesia's perspective, Korea is a major economy that can contribute to the modernization of its manufacturing sector, the relocation of its capital city, and the growth of its defense industry. Notably, as middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region, the two countries share a common goal of fostering an inclusive regional order amid the escalating rivalry be-tween China and the U.S. In light of these dynamics, this paper assess-es the progress of Korea-Indonesia relations to date and delves into the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in enhancing bilateral cooperation.
    Keywords: ROK-Indonesia relations; ROK-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
    Date: 2023–12–07
  5. By: Mima Sefrina
    Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases - recovery, implementation, and transformation - and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
    Date: 2023–04–26
  6. By: Ikumo Isono (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Satoru Kumagai (Economic Geography Studies Group, Development Studies Center, IDE-JETRO)
    Abstract: The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms' responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
    Date: 2023–02–02
  7. By: Fachry Abdul Razak Afif (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economy and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Dongmei Chen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)); Alin Halimaussadiah (LPEM FEB UI); Vida Hardjono (University of Indonesia); Roes E.G. Lufti (LPEM FEB UI); Dian Lutfiana (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Julio Mauricio (KAPSARC); Alloysius Joko Purwanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Prof. Widodo Wahyu Purwanto (University of Indonesia); Jitendra Roychoudhury (KAPSARC); Citra Endah Nur Setyawati (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Majed Al Suwailem (KAPSARC); Wing T. Woo (Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia)
    Abstract: As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced netzero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global netzero economy
    Date: 2023–02–02
  8. By: Michelle Chandra Kasih (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The adoption of advanced technology comes with the risk of cyberattacks. Despite the remarkable prospects of the digital economy, the cost of cyberattacks has reached millions of US dollars and is projected to increase. Investment is needed to provide cybersecurity to help secure the growth of the digital and sustainable economy and anticipate more advanced attacks. As investment in cybersecurity has started to grow in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), challenges are present in the intangible form of inexistent or strict policies, skill shortages, and insufficient public awareness, which can halt the effectiveness of such investment. This policy brief proposes four policy recommendations to ensure successful investment in cybersecurity: 1. Ensure that cybersecurity policies and legal frameworks are not underdeveloped or overly restrictive. 2. Support small businesses in earning customer trust through costeffective guidelines. 3. Incentivise and maintain partnerships for education, research, and capacity building with ethical education for future experts. 4. Raise cyber hygiene and establish integrative reporting platforms that help people identify and detect cyber risk.
    Date: 2023–05–15
  9. By: Annika Seiler (Center for Global Development); Hannah Brown (Center for Global Development); Samuel Matthews (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: The Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are a novel approach to intensifying ongoing efforts toward carbon neutrality, combining country-led strategies to decarbonize the energy sector and addressing development priorities resulting from the ensuing structural transformation with focused, long-term, and plurilateral partnerships. The launches of the $8.5 billion JETP for South Africa in 2021 and the $20.0 billion JETP for Indonesia in 2022 provide momentum for this effort. However, the legacies of coal-based power and modest renewable energy deployment in both countries present key challenges in the areas of political economy, policy alignment, finance, and supply chain development. This paper consolidates available information about these two JETPs and analyzes the approaches taken by South Africa and Indonesia, with the aim of providing a thought framework for these JETPs. It seeks to identify risks and gaps that could obstruct these JETPs’ advancement and to assess whether these JETPs can serve as blueprints for other countries looking to accelerate their move away from coal. Further, this paper highlights complementary action that could enhance the effectiveness of these JETPs and guide the development of similar partnerships in the future. The paper finds that while the JETPs for South Africa and Indonesia appear to deliver a blueprint for moving away from coal in their respective contexts, barriers, risks, and gaps call into question whether the targets can be delivered at the planned pace and scale.
    Date: 2023–07–25
  10. By: Kongchheng Poch; Sothea Oum (Center for Strategy and Innovation Policy (CSIP) and National University of Management (NUM))
    Abstract: Cambodia is at the early stage of maximising the full potential of the blue economy, inclusively and sustainably, due to the lack of an integrated policy framework, clear strategies, and concrete actions. It is critical to address the immediate challenges in the decline of the health and well-being of the marine environment and coastal communities (marine fish stock decline, ecosystem degradation, and pollution). Cambodia also needs to incorporate marine spatial planning in its longterm development vision-strengthening institutional arrangements and capacity, human resources, and investment in coastal and marine infrastructure and technologies. An integrated and multisectoral approach to blue economy development, which places environmental sustainability and people at the centre, also needs to be developed. Cambodia should take advantage of the growing interest in the blue economy at the global, regional, and country levels through effective enforcement of existing laws and regulations; tapping sustainable financing, including blue financing; and participation in the global framework and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Blue Economy Cooperation Framework.
    Date: 2023–08–02
  11. By: Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Imam Pambagyo; Yessi Vadila (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Ivana Markus (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Livia Nazara (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Digital transformation has profoundly reshaped not only the way we work but also the way we live. It has shifted the focus of goods and services trade, emphasising not only what is produced and traded, but also how it is traded, customised, and delivered. The rapid digital transformation within the ASEAN region has ushered in an array of risks and challenges. These challenges encompass a spectrum of concerns, ranging from the safeguarding of data privacy and fortification against cyber threats to grappling with intensified competition and addressing the ever-widening digital divide. To fully embrace the opportunities presented by the digital age, ASEAN must lay the foundation for an ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045, that can serve as a vision for ASEAN in embracing a new era. This visionary pursuit must be anchored in four pivotal cornerstones: robust data governance, the infusion of value-added principles, the establishment of seamless digital connectivity, and the propagation of digital inclusivity.
    Date: 2023–08–28
  12. By: Yuki Higuchi (Faculty of Economics, Sophia University, Japan); Vu Hoang Nam (Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Viet Nam); Tetsushi Sonobe (Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan)
    Abstract: We conducted randomised experiments to provide management training for 312 small Vietnamese manufacturers in 2010 and repeatedly collected follow-up data in the span of a decade. Analysing panel data constructed from our original surveys with an attrition rate of 4%, we find that our training significantly improved the management quality of the treated entrepreneurs, and such improvement was sustained for at least 5 years. The control entrepreneurs, however, caught up in the longer run.
    Keywords: management training, Kaizen, small and medium-sized enterprises, RCT, Viet Nam.
    JEL: L2 M1 O1
    Date: 2023–03–27
  13. By: Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia); Muhammad Rias K.V. Zainuddin (Universiti Malaysia Terengganu); Tamat Sarmidi (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia)
    Abstract: Malaysia leverages the economic activities in and around its oceans, seas, and coastal areas, as its maritime space is double the country's land area. The marine-based or blue economy contributes about 23% of Malaysia's GDP. Realising the importance of the blue economy led Malaysian policymakers to incorporate the concept of the blue economy in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, which was developed in consultation with relevant ministries and organisations. Although the blue economy has been identified as a key area of growth for Malaysia, its development faces numerous challenges such as the absence of a comprehensive national ocean policy and marine spatial plan, overlapping jurisdiction amongst government agencies, and shortage of labour. Thus, a systematic approach is necessary to analyse the gaps in the '8i-ecosystem' to ensure the effective development and management of Malaysia's blue economy. To ensure that the initiatives for the blue economy in Malaysia are on track and delivering the intended outcomes, appropriate monitoring and evaluation approaches and mechanisms must be in place.
    Date: 2023–07–03
  14. By: Vo Tri Thanh (Brand and Competitiveness Strategy Institute, Viet Nam)
    Abstract: Viet Nam is exploring various models to promote long-term economic growth and sustainable development, including the blue economy. Viet Nam's policy documents have no formal definition of the marine economy or the newer concept of the blue economy. However, the policy documents have increasingly captured the essence of the blue economy, especially related to sustainable development. While lacking frequent updates and sufficient scope, the available statistics show the importance of the marine economy in the country. Viet Nam has various advantages for blue economy development, including high levels of sea traffic, a large sea area, a long coastline, and abundant marine resources. New opportunities for blue economy development can arise from consumers' attention to sustainable development, improvement of the related legal framework, and cooperation with partners and foreign investors. However, Viet Nam needs to improve the awareness of local authorities and people, strengthen institutions for blue economy development, and upgrade the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters and climate change at sea, including via international cooperation.
    Date: 2023–06–12
  15. By: Aloun Phonvisay
    Abstract: This policy brief discusses the development of a national blue economy framework for the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) to capitalise on the country's rich water and forest resources in a sustainable manner. The framework would promote sustainable development of the blue economy, identify priority areas for investment, enhance stakeholder capacity, and promote the Lao PDR blue economy. The priority sectors identified for investment include fisheries, forest carbon, inland marine connectivity, and hydropower development.
    Date: 2023–09–13
  16. By: Huong-Giang Pham (Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Viet Nam); Tuong-Anh T. Nguyen (Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Viet Nam); Hoang-Nam Vu (Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Viet Nam)
    Abstract: Conventional agricultural methods are putting considerable strain on developing countries' environments. This problem can be ameliorated through the adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices (SAPs), which can bring economic, ecological and social benefits for farmers, consumers and the overall economy. However, the adoption rates of SAPs remain low in many developing countries. It is therefore vital to provide empirical evidence on the improvement of agricultural productivity as it may assist policymakers in designing suitable policy as well as encourage farmers to adopt SAPs on their farms. This study analyses the impacts of different SAP adoption packages on land productivity and labour productivity in Viet Nam. This is the first attempt in the context of Viet Nam to investigate the economic effects of adopting different SAP packages including crop diversification (CD), conservation agriculture practices (CA) and a combination of those. Using panel Viet Nam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) data with multinomial endogenous switching regressions and an instrumental variable helps reduce potential biases in impact evaluation that previous studies have not fully addressed. Results confirm that if a farmer adopts SAPs, it may raise his net profit per hectare by about 4 million Vietnamese Dong (D)/ha/year, whereas the agricultural income per hectare increases by about 4–6 million D/ha/year. Moreover, the joint adoption of multiple SAPs brings higher benefits (of about 2-4 more million D/ha/year) than single SAP adoption. These findings suggest that policymakers and related stakeholders should focus on promoting the adoption of a combination of crop diversification and conservation practices.
    Keywords: sustainable agricultural practices, multinomial endogenous switching regressions, household production, Viet Nam.
    JEL: D13 O13 Q12
    Date: 2023–03–27
  17. By: Nicola Daniele Coniglio (University of Bari Aldo Moro, Italy. School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu, Estonia)
    Abstract: This paper studies the local community-level effects of Filipino labor migration on the income and expenditure of households. Using the IV method, it examines the effects of district-level migration rates on fifteen different categories of household income and expenditure, which altogether form the core of household income and expenditure structure. Migration is shown to have no significant impact on families’ total income or expenditure. However, it is negatively associated with the wages and salaries of families left behind. Determining whether this result reflects the moral hazard problem or the takeover of the departed migrant’s household chores by another family member (or any other explanation) is beyond the scope of this paper. The effect on receipts from abroad is, expectedly, positive and significant. Concerning household expenditure by category, no significant effect of migration was detected, except for migrants’ educational attainment having a positive and significant effect on education spending, which together with medical care spending is sometimes referred to as households’ ‘investments in human capital’. It is also positively associated with expenditures on durable goods and equipment, as well as housing and utilities. The main contribution to the literature is that, for the first time, the relationship between labor migration and economic outcomes has been analyzed at the district level. Considering the well-documented positive effects of Filipino overseas migration on various dimensions of household welfare at the level of individual households, regions, and the whole nation, the fact that neither total income nor expenditure is affected by the rate of local communities’ migration might entail that, at this level of governance, the Philippine migration policy framework is lacking. Further research is required to foster a more thorough understanding of the interrelationship between migration and household economic outcomes at the local community level and inform the meso-level migration policy in the Philippines.
    Date: 2023–12
  18. By: Katharina Werner (University of Passau); Ahmed Skali (University of Groningen & GLO)
    Abstract: How does conflict exposure affect trust? We hypothesize that direct (firsthand) experience with conflict induces parochialism: trust towards out-groups worsens, but trust towards in-groups, owing to positive experiences of kin solidarity, may improve. Indirect exposure to conflict through third-party accounts, on the other hand, reduces trust toward everyone, owing to negativity bias. We find consistent support for our hypotheses in a lab-in-the-field experiment in Maluku, Indonesia, which witnessed a salient Christian-Muslim conflict during 1999-2002, as well as in three cross-country datasets exploiting temporal and spatial variation in exposure to violence. Our results help resolve a seeming contradiction in the literature and inform policies on resolving conflicts.
    Keywords: trust, conflict, direct exposure, indirect exposure, religion, discrimination
    JEL: C93 D74 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2023–12
  19. By: Peter Warr (Australian National University, Canberra, Australia); Huy Quynh Nguyen (Hanoi School of Business and Management, Viet Nam National University, Hanoi, Viet Nam)
    Abstract: Viet Nam's 1986 programme of market-oriented economic reforms did not include the freedom of farmers to choose their crops independently. Large areas of land remain restricted to rice production. This paper studies the effects of this policy on agricultural productivity, using panel data from the Viet Nam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS), covering the years 2008 to 2016. The econometrics uses fixed effects methods with and without the additional use of instrumental variable methods to allow for the possible statistical endogeneity of the restrictions. The findings are that the crop choice restrictions reduced the overall productivity of annual crop land by about 5%, reduced the overall productivity of farm labour by about 8% and reduced the mean incomes of farm households by 5%-6%, implying increased levels of rural poverty. Moreover, rice output would have been no lower if the restrictions were removed
    Keywords: land restrictions, productivity, rice production, land policy
    JEL: Q15 C54
    Date: 2023–03–27
  20. By: Le Tung Bach
    Abstract: One of the main stages for achieving success is the adoption of new technology by its users. Several studies show that Property technology is advantageous for real estate stakeholders. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the users' engagement behavior to adopt Property technology in the Vietnamese real estate market. To that end, a purposive sample of 142 participants was recruited to complete an online quantitative approach based survey. The survey consisted of a modified and previously validated measure of acceptance based on the extended demographic version of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology), as well as usage scale items. The empirical findings confirm that participants were generally accepting of Property technology in the Vietnamese real estate market. The highest mean values were associated with the subscales of effort expectancy and performance expectancy, while we can easily identify the lowest mean value in the social influence subscale. The usage of Property technology was slightly more concerned with the gathering of information on properties and markets than transactions or portfolio management. This study provides an in depth understanding of Property technology for firms' managers and marketers. Online social interactions might be either harmful or fruitful for firms depending on the type of interaction and engagement behavior. This is especially true of property portals and social media forums that would help investors to connect, communicate and learn. Findings can help users to improve their strategies for digital marketing. By providing robust findings by addressing issues like omitted variables and endogeneity, the findings of this study are promising for developing new hypotheses and theoretical models in the context of the Vietnamese real estate market.
    Date: 2023–12
  21. By: Christa Brunnschweiler (School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Nanang Kurniawan (Department of Politics and Government, Universitas Gadja Mada); Paivi Lujalac (Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu); Primi Putri (Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu); Sabrina Scherzer (Department of Geography, NTNU); Indah Wardhani (Department of Politics and Government, Universitas Gadja Mada)
    Abstract: The governance of natural resource wealth is a key factor in promoting strong institutions and economic development in resource-rich countries. In this paper, we explore how individuals engagement in local natural resource revenue (NRR) management can be enhanced and encouraged. We focus on Indonesia, which is a large gold and petroleum producer, among other natural resources, with local challenges such as underdevelopment of resource-rich areas and corruption. We run a randomized survey experiment among 807 local community members in an oil-rich district using videos with three information treatments that give citizens salient and easily understandable information on local NRR and additional motivation to use this information to engage in NRR management. Our outcomes include survey questions on stated behavior and citizen rights perception regarding NRR management, and two incentive-compatible measures. We find that providing easily understandable information increases respondents sense of the right to personally influence how NRR are used and the propensity to donate to an anti-corruption NGO. Our positive example treatment was able to increase respondents sense of their right to benefit from NRR and their right to influence NRR management, while our negative example treatment had no impact on our outcomes. We also explore intervening mechanisms and heterogeneous effects. Providing the population of resource-rich areas with easily understood information on NRR management that is relevant to the local context offers an encouraging avenue for combating NRR-related mismanagement and corruption.
    Keywords: accountability, survey experiment, video, Indonesia, petroleum revenues, information treatment
    JEL: Q35 Q38 H41 H23 D80
    Date: 2023–12
  22. By: Clemence Landers (Center for Global Development); Karen Mathiasen (Center for Global Development); Samuel Matthews (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: The climate agenda has been a dominant feature of World Bank reform efforts, with President Banga aiming to both mobilize new resources and increase the proportion of total funding for climate-related projects. The stakes are high: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many borrowing countries are elevated and rising, dimming prospects for meeting the 2030 Paris Agreement target to limit warming to a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. To date, stakeholders have focused on how to mobilize new funding for climate mitigation reflecting an emphasis on the supply side (e.g., financing) of the agenda. But there has been little analysis on the demand side (or project pipeline). The assumption is that more money will generate more demand. But this does not necessarily follow. In this paper, we discuss major factors that will influence demand for climate mitigation projects, especially from the largest emitters of greenhouse gases (e.g., China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico). Our assessment is that factors like World Bank borrowing costs and access to alternative sources of finance will likely limit demand absent financial incentives, which could prove costly and difficult to resource at the scale needed to have meaningful impact. We also see a risk that these incentives could be used inefficiently absent a rigorous analysis to identify where they could have the most impact and a robust framework for assessing results.
    Date: 2023–12–11
  23. By: Quang Hoan Truong (Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, Viet Nam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS)); Van Chung Dong (Viet Nam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS))
    Abstract: This study employs data from the Viet Nam Enterprise Survey (VES) for 2007 and 2011 to examine the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) and product sophistication as well as the interaction between these two factors on the skilled and unskilled labour demand on Viet Nam's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It finds that the FDI presence in the same industry but different regions-and FDI in the same region but different industries - has a positive effect on the skilled labour demand and a negative impact on the unskilled labour demand. FDI in the same industry has a negative effect on the skilled labour demand and an advantageous impact on the unskilled labour demand. The product sophistication index is found to positively affect the skilled labour demand but decreases the demand for unskilled labour. When interacting with product sophistication, FDI presence in the same industry and region positively affects the skilled labour demand. The study also finds the opposite impacts of different types of FDI presence as well as the interaction between FDI presence and product sophistication on the demand for highly, medium-, and basic-skilled labour. Thus, it is important to consider the opposite effects of different types of FDI and the interaction between FDI presence and product sophistication on SME labour demand by skills level.
    Keywords: FDI presence; Product sophistication; SMEs; Skilled and unskilled labour demand; Viet Nam
    JEL: F15 F23 J23
    Date: 2023–02–02
  24. By: Cynthia Chen; Julian Lim; Abhijit Visaria; Angelique Chan
    Abstract: Societal aging is arguably one of our most critical demographic challenges, and Singapore is aging at a much faster rate compared to other countries. Population aging could negatively affect older adults, contribute to an increase in healthcare expenditure and increase caregivers' financial and emotional burden. This chapter provides an overview of the well-being and health and social care needs of older adults in Singapore. Formulating social and public policies that enhance the health span, extend productive life years, support caregivers, and improve community health and social care services are crucial elements to help older adults age successfully. We analyze how aging affects health, financial security, and well-being, exploring correlations between disability levels and these factors. We then discuss policies the Singapore government has implemented or will implement to help older adults age successfully. Lastly, we provide an overview of formal and informal care provided in Singapore, including assessing the overall cost of LTC in Singapore.
    JEL: I1
    Date: 2023–12
  25. By: Paul J. Gertler (University of California-Berkeley); Marco Gonzalez-Navarro (University of California-Berkeley); Tadeja Gracner (RAND); Alexander D. Rothenberg (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the local welfare impacts of highway maintenance investments. We instrument road quality exploiting Indonesia’s two-step budgeting process for allocating funding to local road authorities. Using comprehensive data on road quality from 1990Ã 2007, we find evidence that better roads help manufacturers create new jobs, enabling worker transitions out of informal employment, and increasing labor income. Road quality also changes the cost of living, reducing perishable food prices but also raising housing prices. We estimate the elasticity of household welfare with respect to road quality to be 0.09 and the benefit/cost ratio for road maintenance investments to be 1.8.
    Date: 2023–12
  26. By: Shandre Mugan Thangavelu (Jeffrey Cheah Institute for Southeast Asia, Sunway University and Institute for International Trade, University of Adelaide); Vutha Hing (Institute for International Trade, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: This policy brief examines the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy based on the impact of the CKFTA in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It summarises the key results of the CKFTA study that examined the impact of the CKFTA on the Cambodian economy - specifically quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and structural transformation of the economy in the global and regional value chains. The policy brief also highlights the key benefits of the CKFTA to the Cambodian economy
    Date: 2023–03–27
  27. By: Rodolfo Campos; Samuel Pienknagura; Jacopo Timini
    Abstract: We study the evolution of trade globalization in a set of countries in Latin America (mostly the largest ones) and Asia over the past 25 years. Relying on structural gravity models, we first estimate a proxy of trade globalization that captures the ease of trading internationally with respect to trading domestically. Results indicate that the evolution of trade globalization since the mid-1990s has been similar between the two regions, but very heterogeneous within them. Trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but has lagged in services. The paper also documents that trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but it lagged in services. Within region heterogeneity is associated to a set of trade policy instruments, including tariffs, non-tariff measures, WTO membership. and trade agreements. Next, we quantify the economic implications of the estimated globalization trends. Simulations of a multi-sector trade model point to heterogeneous long-term impacts of globalization on GDP—some countries exhibiting substantial gains and others experiencing large losses—, with no single sector playing a preponderant role.
    Keywords: Trade; Globalization; Structural gravity; Latin America; Asia
    Date: 2023–12–08
  28. By: Shelby Bourgault (Center for Global Development); Megan O’Donnel (Center for Global Development); Mia Griffin (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: Research demonstrates that the COVID-19 pandemic has had differential effects by gender, with women experiencing higher job and income loss, increased rates of domestic violence, and mounting care burdens globally. While governments and civil society organizations were pivotal to mitigating the impacts of the pandemic, international institutions, and multilateral development banks (MDBs) in particular, also played a role in financing and informing the design and implementation of COVID-19 response programs. MDBs are institutions with significant financial resources and policy leverage, but relatively little is known about their impact on narrowing gender gaps in their partner countries, especially during the COVID-19 crisis. This paper examines the extent to which MDB COVID response projects incorporated gender elements. Using project data from the World Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank, this paper presents descriptive statistics on the presence of gender-related indicators and gender-dedicated projects across MDBs in projects focused on health, social protection, and other areas of COVID response and recovery. We analyze data across institutions, geographies, and project sectors—and highlight the main gaps in MDB response efforts.
    Date: 2023–05–11
  29. By: Mauricio Cárdenas (Columbia University (SIPA and CGEP); Center for Global Development); Juan José Guzmán Ayala (Columbia University, Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP))
    Abstract: Forest-based carbon markets could become an important source of income for countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. Estimates indicate that under a high carbon prices scenario, the value of the forest-based carbon credit market could increase from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$25 billion per year by 2030. Apart from the climate and monetary benefits, forest based carbon markets also have pitfalls that must be avoided. Without the right institutions in place, at the national and local level, forest projects can generate negative externalities, such as population displacement, increases in food prices, and biodiversity degradation. The value chain in carbon credits involves a number of high value-added upstream and downstream activities that tend to take place outside the countries where the projects are located. Industrial policies are required for host countries to receive a higher share of the revenue stream, including in areas such as structuring, monitoring, verification, and surveillance. Countries need to promote actions in labor training, research and development, and access to long-term capital. The paper proposes the creation National Carbon Federations as institutions to resolve several market failures, while preventing conflict, ensuring adequate savings of the additional income, and strengthen democratic governance. These organizations can also provide key public goods, so that local communities benefit from the development of carbon credits from tropical forests.
    Date: 2023–11–13
    Abstract: 본 연구에서는 미국, EU, 일본, 중국 등 주요국의 최근 전략산업 투자유치 인센티브 제도에 대한 조사를 바탕으로 ‘현금지원제도 확충 및 개선’과 ‘첨단산업 특화단지 및 기회발전특구 활용’을 국내 전략산업 투자유치 인센티브 개선 방향으로 제시하였다. 구체적으로 현금지원제도 확충 및 개선 방향의 경우 현금지원 예산 규모의 확대, 소프트웨어 측면의 연구개발 지출에 대한 지원 확대, 고용창출 효과뿐만 아니라 고용의 질을 함께 고려한 현금지원 규모 산정 등이 필요한 것으로 분석되었다. 이와 함께 전략산업의 대규모 투자에 대한 파격적인 지원이 가능하도록 첨단산업 특화단지와 기회발전특구를 연계하는 방안을 제시하였다. Foreign direct investment(FDI) in Korea remains at a lower level compared to that of major countries, although the amount of FDI in Korea in 2022 on notification basis exceeded 30 billion USD for the first time in history. And major advanced countries have recently expanded investment incentives to strategic industries such as semiconductors and secondary batteries. Therefore, we need to make a landmark transformation of our FDI incentive policies. In this regard, this study first took a look at the recent trends of FDI in Korea and reviewed the incentive systems for attracting strategic investment in major countries such as the U.S., the EU, Japan, and China. And then it attempted to present policy directions for reforming incentive systems to attract strategic investment to Korea. In particular, it aimed to present the improvement of the cash incentive system as well as the use of specialized complexes for advanced industries and specialized zones for equal opportunity development.First, by looking at the recent trends of FDI into Korea (2010~2022), there are more FDI from advanced countries and tax haven countries such as U.S.A., Japan, Singapore, Malta, Netherland than from others. Also, we found more FDI in services industry than in manufacturing industry. Finally, there were more greenfield FDI than M&As. Next, we investigated recent incentive systems to attract investment in strategic industries in some key countries. These include the CHIPS and Science Act along with the Inflation Reduction Act of the U.S., and the European New Investment Strategy, InvestEU Program, and European Chips Act in the EU. We also analyzed Japan’s Direct Investment Promotion Strategy toward Japan, Promotion Act of 5G, Semiconductor Fund, and Green Innovation Fund, as well as China’s FDI expansion policy in the manufacturing sector. From this investigation, we confirmed that major countries (ⅰ) operate investment incentive systems without any discrimination between foreign and domestic firms, (ⅱ) provide large amounts of investment subsidies, and (ⅲ) have formed a social consensus that large-scale assistance is necessary to attract investment in strategic industries.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; subsidies; incentives
    Date: 2023–12–15
  31. By: Rachael Calleja (Center for Global Development); Beata Cichocka (Center for Global Development); Sara Casadevall Bellés (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: This paper maps the landscape of non-DAC cooperation providers with the view of understanding how they engage in development cooperation. This is done in three parts. First, using qualitative information compiled primarily from country sources, we map the current cooperation priorities of 54 non-DAC providers that were identified as having formal institutions for managing outward development cooperation. Our data provides a snapshot of the volumes, modalities, and sectoral and regional priorities of non-DAC providers, highlighting differences across cooperation providers at different levels of income. Second, we complement our mapping with five short case studies that provide a brief history of how the cooperation programs of five provider countries—Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates—developed over time, with a focus on mapping changes in cooperation priorities and understanding the contexts that inform shifting trends. These cases highlight the influence of political and economic contexts on how countries cooperate—including where cooperation is targeted and how much is provided—as well as the specific international spaces for development dialogue through which they engage. Third, we develop a simple framework for identifying differences in the degree to which providers are willing to partner through shared spaces and activities for development, identifying four broad groups of non-DAC cooperation providers that differ in terms of their openness to multi-partner cooperation for development and capacity to engage. We measure “openness” using a novel composite indicator that captures participation in international forums, reporting development data to shared repositories, participation in triangular cooperation, and contributions to multilateral and regional institutions. Our analysis shows that most non-DAC providers show openness to multi-partner engagement for development, however, whether and how such openness can be transformed into more active cooperation—if not deeper collaboration—for development, including between DAC and non-DAC actors, remains to be seen.
    Date: 2023–05–19
  32. By: Muhammad Zeshan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)
    Abstract: We believe that high tariff rates have increased the overall cost of production in Pakistan, and the domestic prices of many products have become much higher than the international market prices. Reducing import tariffs will reduce not only the domestic prices but will also increase the export competitiveness of the country because many imported products are complementary intermediate inputs in various exporting industries. Further, it will allow the country to take advantage of the augmented technology in the new imported products, which will be helpful to add new products to its export portfolio. Hence, we eliminate the import tariffs of the 10 major import items of Pakistan such as cooking oil from Indonesia; textiles, chemicals, basic metals, machinery and electrical equipment from China; mining, coke and petroleum from the United Arab Emirates; and mining and chemicals from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
    Keywords: Import Tariffs, Industry, Trade, CGE, Pakistan,
    Date: 2023

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