nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2023‒11‒13
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar, Asian Development Bank

  1. Sectoral Evidence on Indonesian Economic Performance after the Pandemic By Willem THORBECKE
  2. Vaccine Research and Development (R&D) in the Asia-Pacific: the economics of vaccine R&D and policy recommendations to overcome market failures and promote R&D cooperation By Postigo, Antonio
  3. Power outages and firm performance: a hydro-IV approach for a single electricity grid By Elliott, Robert J.R.; Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Strobl, Eric A.
  4. The Determinants of Student Performance in Indonesian Public Primary Schools: The Role of Teachers and Schools By Daniel Suryadarma; Rima Prama Artha; Asep Suryahadi; Sudarno Sumarto; F. Halsey Rogers
  5. Flexible Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from ASEAN By Nuwat Nookhwun; Rawipha Waiyawatjakorn
  6. Impact of gamification on GenZ consumers’ online impulse buying behavior intention: evidence from Shopee application in the Vietnamese market By Tran Thanh Tu; Nguyen Thi Hai Binh
  8. Global energy crisis: impact on the global economy By Ozili, Peterson K
  9. Data Analysis on the Global Market Capitalization Of Domestic Firms From 2013 To 2023 By Chaturvedi, Archit
  10. A hybrid SEM/ANN analysis to understand youtube video content's influence on university students' eLearning acceptance behavior By Phan Cong Thao Tien; Tran Thien Phuc; Nguyen Thi Hai Binh
  11. The Impact of Parental Health Shocks on Child Schooling and Labor: Evidence from Thailand By Sasiwooth Wongmonta
  12. Financial stability and sustainable development By Ozili, Peterson K
  13. Estimating Capacity Requirements of the National Company Law Tribunal: Notes from the Field By Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah; Susan Thomas
  14. Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A sectoral analysis By Willem THORBECKE
  15. Nền tảng thương mại điện tử quần áo tái chế của nhãn hàng thời trang Canada By Yến, Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh
  16. Impact of financial inclusion on economic growth: review of existing literature and directions for future research By Ozili, Peterson
  17. External Commodity Shocks and the Insulating Role of Fiscal Policy on Real Output: Evidence from a Commodity-Exporting Economy By Victor Pontines; Davaajargal Luvsannyam
  18. Corporate governance and financial inclusion By Ozili, Peterson K
  19. The Future of Financial Inclusion By Ozili, Peterson K
  20. Book Review: Kinh tế Việt Nam: Thăng trầm và đột phá By Nguyen, Hoai; Huynh, Toan Luu Duc; Huynh, Anh Ngoc Quang
  21. The political economy of policy-making in Indonesia: opportunities for improving the demand for and use of knowledge By Ajoy Datta; Harry Jones; Vita Febriany; Dan Harris; Rika Kumala Dewi; Leni Wild; John Young
  22. Penentu Kinerja Murid Sekolah Dasar di Indonesia: Peranan Guru dan Sekolah By Daniel Suryadarma; Rima Prama Artha; Asep Suryahadi; Sudarno Sumarto; F. Halsey Rogers

  1. By: Willem THORBECKE
    Abstract: The Indonesian economy has a long history of steady growth punctuated by times of turmoil and crisis. Recently Indonesia has faced the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, contractionary U.S. monetary policy, and fluctuating commodity prices. To examine how the economy is faring since the pandemic began, this paper compares sectoral stock returns since COVID-19 hit the Indonesian economy with forecasted returns based on macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that coal, iron and steel, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals are outperforming more than three years after the coronavirus crisis began. Tobacco, industrials, and sectors related to construction are underperforming. The regression evidence also indicates that Indonesian sectors are primarily exposed to the Indonesian stock market. Coal, iron and steel and natural resources stocks are less exposed to the Indonesian stock market and more exposed to the world stock market. Almost no sectors exhibit exposure to contractionary U.S. monetary policy. The importance of the Indonesian stock market in explaining stock returns reflects the fact that the Indonesian economy is largely driven by domestic demand. To increase its resilience, Indonesia should also nurture labor-intensive exports.
    Date: 2023–10
  2. By: Postigo, Antonio
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted both the strengths and weaknesses of national, regional, and global vaccine research and development (R&D) systems. Translating public and private R&D efforts into effective vaccines in a timely manner requires not only sufficient financial and scientific resources but also a policy-driven R&D ecosystem that fosters innovation, public-private partnerships, and international cooperation. This paper outlines several supply-side and demand-side factors behind vaccine R&D that generate economic disincentives for pharmaceutical firms to invest in vaccine R&D and can lead to a market failure for vaccines targeting diseases in low-income countries. Most developing countries in Asia-Pacific not only lack the financial and technological resources to invest in vaccine R&D, but it is also not sensible to develop and replicate R&D capabilities in each country. Consequently, low-income countries are dependent on vaccines researched, developed, and manufactured by other nations that they must obtain through trade and international cooperation. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest share of global R&D spending and large shares in publications and patents on vaccine R&D. The region is home to dozens of state-owned and private pharmaceutical firms and contract research organizations that conduct vaccine R&D. Global pharmaceutical firms have not only offshored part of their vaccine manufacturing to Asia-Pacific but also transferred some of their R&D activities. Countries in Asia-Pacific have used several supply-side and demand-side approaches to incentivize investments in vaccine R&D. For instance, high-income countries are major contributors to product development partnerships and philanthropic foundations and have launched programs to boost university-industry R&D ties. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many high- and middle-income countries in the region established advanced market commitments for vaccine doses. The COVID-19 pandemic also showed the possibilities and challenges of international cooperation in vaccine R&D. Pharmaceutical firms in some developing countries built their vaccine R&D capabilities through technological transfer from high-income countries. Regional institutions and intergovernmental organizations in Asia-Pacific have also helped promote and coordinate regional cooperation in vaccine R&D. This paper proposes policy actions to stimulate investments in vaccine R&D and promote regional cooperation along four dimensions, namely a) on the prioritization of targets in the vaccine R&D pipeline; b) on how to overcome market failures in vaccine R&D; c) on fostering partnerships between relevant stakeholders at the national and regional levels; and d) on increasing the preparedness and response of national and regional vaccine R&D systems.
    Keywords: Covid-19; vaccines; medical products; R&D; regional cooperation; Asia-Pacific
    JEL: F15 F21 I18
    Date: 2022–10–25
  3. By: Elliott, Robert J.R.; Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Strobl, Eric A.
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of power outages on firm performance using a hydro-instrumental variable strategy which integrates a river flow with a hydropower generation model and an electricity-grid-based distance interpolation technique. Comparing World Bank Enterprise Surveys in 2005 and 2015 for Vietnam, we find that despite considerable economic progress, firms have become more susceptible to power outages. Our estimates suggest that reducing the length of power cuts by 1% would have increased revenues by 4.66 billion USD. Other results show that firms with less reliable electricity have lower productivity and use less flexible inputs, which is not mitigated by backup generators.
    Keywords: firm performance; growth; instrumental variables; power outages; Vietnam
    JEL: O13 Q54 R11 N55
    Date: 2021–11–01
  4. By: Daniel Suryadarma; Rima Prama Artha; Asep Suryahadi; Sudarno Sumarto; F. Halsey Rogers
    Keywords: absenteeism, primary school, achievement
  5. By: Nuwat Nookhwun; Rawipha Waiyawatjakorn
    Abstract: The experience of flexible inflation targeting in ASEAN-5 has been favorable. This paper shows improvements in macroeconomic outcomes consistent with the framework’s mandated objectives: lower levels and volatility of inflation, more stable economic growth and a well-functioned financial system. ASEAN-5 economies can cope well with a se- quence of past shocks and crises, although the marginal contribution of the inflation targeting framework itself is still not clear-cut. Over the past 20 years, policy frameworks of ASEAN-5, similar to other emerging market economies, have continuously evolved to incorporate various policy tools, which include foreign exchange intervention, macropru- dential policy and capital flow measures. This reflects challenges emanated from capital flow volatility and domestic financial imbalances. A multitude of policy tools are ar- guably one of the key factors contributing to the sound macroeconomic outcome during the post-targeting periods.
    Keywords: flexible inflation targeting; monetary policy; ASEAN; financial stability; integrated policy
    JEL: E52 E58 D78
    Date: 2023–10
  6. By: Tran Thanh Tu; Nguyen Thi Hai Binh
    Abstract: In the ever-evolving realm of electronic commerce, the volatility of customer buying patterns, specifically impulsive purchases, has escalated. The objective of this study is to examine the integration of gamification strategies within online shopping applications, with the aim of enhancing user satisfaction and stimulating impulsive buying behavior in the online context. This study utilizes the Theory of Mind (ToM) and Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) framework in conjunction with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to evaluate the influence of gamification elements on impulsive buying behavior, as observed through individual cognitive reactions. By employing a judgemental sampling technique, the study successfully gathers 204 data points via an online survey. Subsequent data analysis confirms the validity of six out of the eight hypotheses, indicating that the impact of random rewards on impulsive purchasing is constrained. This highlights the necessity for e-commerce platform administrators to enhance their gamification strategies, while also indicating that Generation Z (GenZ) consumers might modify their buying behaviors accordingly.
    Keywords: gamification, Gen Z, impulsive buying, SOR framework
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Siki, Rilma Risti
    Abstract: Beberapa tahun terakhir muncul beberapa studi yang menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan tingkat toleransi di Indonesia. Salah satu diantara sikap yang mengarah kepada nilai intoleransi yaitu munculnya gerakan radikalisme, berita bohong (hoax), persekusi. Bahkan ditingkat pelajar Sekolah Menengah Atas, nilai intoleransi muncul dalam bentuk bullying, pembedaan berdasarkan agama, suku dan lainnya. Ini mengindikasikan adanya kesenjangan dalam penerapan nilai-nilai Pancasila, yang berdampak pada sikap intoleran di kalangan pelajar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana proses pencegahan sikap intoleransi melalui penguatan pendidikan Pancasila serta faktor pendukung dan penghambat dalam penguatan pendidikan Pancasila. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif yaitu menghasilkan data deskriptif berupa informasi tertulis atau lisan dari informan dan perilaku yang dapat diamati. Hasil penelitian menunjukan pencegahan sikap intoleransi dikalangan siswa Sekolah Menengah Atas dilakukan melalui pendalaman Kurikulum 13 dan pendekatan budaya literasi. Adapaun faktor pedukung diantaranya: kebijakan pemerintah yang memberikan aturan tentang adanya penanaman nilai-nilai toleransi beragama, kerjasama antar warga sekolah dalam kegiatan keagamaan. Faktor penghambatnya yaitu: latar belakang keluarga, lingkungan masyarakat, tingkat kemampuan, kematangan emosional siswa yang tidak sama, pengaruh media sosial, dan hubungan pertemanan. Kata Kunci: Toleransi, Intoleransi, Pendidikan
    Date: 2023–10–08
  8. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper explores the 2021-2022 global energy crisis. The 2021-2022 energy crisis was caused by many factors including the global campaign to reduce carbon emission, the shortage in fossil fuel reserves due to divestment from fossil fuels, the halt in oil production due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine and Russia conflict. The empirical results show that gasoline prices rose in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas. The rise in gasoline prices occurred during the period when COVID-era restrictions were lifted in 2021 and also during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The correlation results show that gasoline prices in Middle East, Europe, Asia and the Americas were significantly correlated but not in Africa. The findings have implications.
    Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, gasoline, energy crisis, Asia, Europe, Africa, Middle East
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Chaturvedi, Archit
    Abstract: In this report, a dataset providing information with respect to the market capitalization of companies globally based on different regions across the world by year was analyzed through the use of advanced analytics and data visualization techniques in Python. These regions were the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and the EMEA, as well as the comprehensive data of the total global market capitalization. The data was analyzed from years 2013 to 2023, with 2020 being excluded from the dataset. Four distinct polynomial regression models with degree n=4 were formulated and provided to predict future values of market capitalization based on region, as well as the total global market capitalization. Furthermore, the market capitalizations of each region, as well as the total market capitalization, were correlated with one another to determine the relationship between the market capitalizations of one region with another, as well as the correlation between the market capitalization of each region with the total global market capitalization, which rendered strong positive correlations between the market capitalization of each region with one another, as well as with the total global market capitalization.
    Date: 2023–10–09
  10. By: Phan Cong Thao Tien; Tran Thien Phuc; Nguyen Thi Hai Binh
    Abstract: A hybrid analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Importance- Performance Map Analysis (IPMA) was used to examine how YouTube videos affect university students’ acceptance in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). Performance expectation was the most important component by both ANN and IPMA assessments, and theoretically, the presented model gave several explanations for the effect of individual determinants of desire to utilize eLearning from Internet services. The findings support earlier research showing performance and effort expectations strongly impact eLearning adoption. The report encouraged academics in HCMC to utilize YouTube. Respondents wanted to employ modern technologies in their teaching. UTAUT and TAM were used to discuss the findings.
    Keywords: Social media, YouTube, Higher education, eLearning, Ho Chi Minh City’s students, TAM, UTAUT
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Sasiwooth Wongmonta
    Abstract: This paper uses household panel data from the Thai Socio-Economic Surveys of 2012 and 2017 to examine the effects of parental health shocks on child education and labor. Three measures of parental health are analyzed: chronic illness, hospitalization, and self-reported health problem. The results show that illness of the parents decreases school enrollment and leads to fewer years of education completed. Additionally, it finds that paternal illness has a relatively more detrimental effect on children’s educational outcomes than maternal illness, especially for the educational attainment. Girls are less likely to have attended school if any parent self-reported having any health problems. Parents’ chronic illness increases the probability of entering the labor force for youths aged 15 and over; however, only maternal illness increases their time spent at work. Households having both parents hospitalized are most likely associated with the significant decrease in household income and education expenditures. The results suggest that targeted government support to low-income families affected by major illnesses of parents could help them to maintain their children in school.
    Keywords: education; child labor; human capital; health shocks; Thailand
    JEL: I14 I24 O15
    Date: 2023–10
  12. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: Financial institutions operating in a stable financial system seem to be willing to support the realization of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This view assumes that financial stability is crucial for sustainable development. We investigate the effect of financial stability on sustainable development. We use a unique financial stability index, sustainable development index and four SDG indicators. We analyse 26 countries from 2011 to 2018 using the system GMM method. The findings of the sustainable development index analysis show that financial stability has a significant effect on the level of sustainable development and the effect is negative in Asian countries. European and Asian countries have a high sustainable development index compared to African countries. The result of the individual SDG analyses show that financial stability has a significant effect on SDG3. Financial stability has a negative effect on SDG10 in Asian countries and a negative effect on SDG3 during periods of economic prosperity. Financial stability has a positive effect on SDG3 and SDG7 in countries where the banking system have high capital buffer. The results show that the effect of financial stability on sustainable development depends on how sustainable development is measured.
    Keywords: Financial stability, sustainable development, financial institutions, institutional quality, capital buffer, sustainable development goals, economic growth, ZSCORE, banks.
    JEL: G21 Q01
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah (National University of Singapore); Susan Thomas (xKDR Forum)
    Abstract: A framework to determine the optimal strength of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) is important, given it's central role as an adjudicator under the Companies Act, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and the Competition Commission of India. The ability to collect standardised, comprehensive and consistent data from the NCLT, is critical for this. Such data systems support the development of models to estimate the optimal strength of each bench of such a tribunal. In this paper, we explore the use of the weighted caseload method to estimate the capacity requirements of the NCLT, on a recurrent basis given the presence of data.
    JEL: K4 C8
    Date: 2023–10
  14. By: Willem THORBECKE
    Abstract: COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine War, inflation, contractionary U.S. monetary policy, and other shocks have buffeted the world economy. To examine how these shocks impact Malaysia, this paper examines how they affect Malaysian sectoral stock returns. The results indicate that inflation, U.S. monetary policy, exchange rates, and other macroeconomic variables are exerting second order effects on Malaysian industries. The paper then compares the performance of sectoral stock returns during the three and a half years since the pandemic began with returns forecasted based on five macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that industrial metals and banks are performing well. Food producers, healthcare providers, medical equipment suppliers, tourist-related companies, and semiconductor firms are suffering. This paper considers several policy steps that could help firms in hard-hit sectors to recover and be resilient. These include encouraging exports of tropical fruits and halal foods and promoting medical tourism. In addition, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to facilitate learning and progression to sophisticated segments of the electronics value chain would increase firms’ robustness. Seeking inbound FDI is important now as multinational corporations attempt to diversify out of China and as countries seek to friendshore their semiconductor supply chains.
    Date: 2023–10
  15. By: Yến, Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh
    Abstract: Thời trang nhanh vốn được biết đến là ngành công nghiệp tỷ đô với những cuộc chạy đua giữa các thương hiệu để cho ra mắt những thiết kế mới liên tục, đi cùng với đó là thời gian từ khâu sản xuất tới khi bị vứt bỏ ngày càng bị cắt ngắn để tối đa hóa lợi nhuận. Đây là một ví dụ rất điển hình của văn hóa thâm hụt sinh thái trong giới kinh doanh [1]. Cũng vì lý do này, ngành công nghiệp thời trang đã bị chỉ trích vì tạo ra nhiều ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến môi trường, như thải ra 10% tổng lượng khí thải carbon, là ngành công nghiệp xả nước thải lớn thứ 2 trên thế giới, và chỉ riêng việc giặt các loại vải dệt tổng hợp như polyester đã thải ra 35% tổng số hạt vi nhựa trong đại dương [2].
    Date: 2023–10–11
  16. By: Ozili, Peterson
    Abstract: The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth is a topic that is generating widespread interest among researchers and practitioners. We review the existing literature to highlight the state of research in the literature and identify new opportunities for innovative research. We used a thematic literature review methodology which involves dividing the review along relevant themes. We find that significant research on the topic emerged in the post-2016 years. Most of the existing studies are from developing countries and from the Asian and African regions. Existing studies have not utilized relevant theories in explaining the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth. Most studies report a positive impact of financial inclusion on economic growth while very few studies show a negative impact. The most common channel through which financial inclusion affects economic growth is through greater access to financial products and services offered by financial institutions that increases financial intermediation and translates to positive economic growth. The common empirical methodology used in the literature are causality tests, cointegration and regression methods. Multiple proxies of financial inclusion and economic growth were used in the literature which partly explains the conflicting result among existing studies. The review paper concludes by identifying some directions for future research.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, economic growth, literature review, access to finance, GDP, GDP per capita, causality tests, regression, cointegration, Africa, Europe, Asia, financial inclusion, index, theory.
    JEL: E30 E32 G21
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Victor Pontines (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre); Davaajargal Luvsannyam (The Bank of Mongolia)
    Abstract: This study investigates the role of fiscal policy in stabilising resource-rich economies vulnerable to external commodity shocks, with a specific focus on Mongolia. We analyse the effects of various external commodity shocks on Mongolia’s economy and find that fiscal policy’s responses to these shocks have been counter-cyclical. Additionally, we construct policy counterfactuals to examine the insulating role of fiscal policy on real domestic output. The findings reveal that counter-cyclical fiscal measures, particularly government expenditure, and to a lesser extent, government revenue, played an important role in Mongolia’s response to external commodity shocks.
    Keywords: external commodity shocks, fiscal policy, real output, Mongolia
    JEL: C51 E62 F41 Q43
    Date: 2023–11
  18. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper examines the association between corporate governance and financial inclusion in terms of correlation and causation. It examines whether countries that have a strong corporate governance environment also have better financial inclusion outcomes. The indicators of financial inclusion are automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100, 000 adults, bank accounts per 1, 000 adults and bank branches per 100, 000 adults, while the indicators of corporate governance are extent of corporate transparency index, the extent of director liability index, the extent of disclosure index, the extent of ownership and control index, the extent of shareholder rights index, minority investors protection index and ease of shareholder suits index. The data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and granger causality tests. The results indicate that strong corporate governance is significantly correlated with better financial inclusion outcomes. The regional analyses show that corporate governance has a significant positive association with financial inclusion in Asian countries and in Middle East countries. However, a positive and negative association was observed between some indicators of corporate governance and financial inclusion in European countries, North American countries, South American countries, African countries and in Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) countries, implying that strong corporate governance has a positive and negative association with financial inclusion depending on the indicators of corporate governance and financial inclusion used. There is also evidence of uni-directional granger causality between corporate governance and financial inclusion.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, corporate governance, financial institutions
    JEL: M12 M14
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper provides insight into the trends to expect in the future of financial inclusion. The author identifies the past and recent changes occurring in the financial inclusion space, and based on these changes, make predictions about what to expect in the future of financial inclusion. The author predicts that, in the future, financial inclusion will witness increased digitalization; increased personalization of formal financial services; the provision of a wide range of formal financial services from a single platform; a shift from account number to mobile number to drive financial inclusion; more women will become financially empowered and financially independent; government will become more directly involved in delivering basic financial services to the poor; and we will witness the emergence of new financial innovations that continuously reduce transaction costs. These future trends will have implications for financial inclusion in Asia, Europe and particularly in Africa where the level of financial inclusion is low.
    Keywords: Financial inclusion, digital finance, Fintech, access to finance, central bank digital currency, women.
    JEL: G21 I31 I38
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Nguyen, Hoai; Huynh, Toan Luu Duc; Huynh, Anh Ngoc Quang
    Abstract: [Book review] Kinh tế Việt Nam: Thăng trầm và đột phá Phạm Minh Chính and Vương Quân Hoàng National Political Publishing House 2nd edition Published in 2021 554pp. ISBN 978-604-57-6947-8
    Date: 2022–09–01
  21. By: Ajoy Datta; Harry Jones; Vita Febriany; Dan Harris; Rika Kumala Dewi; Leni Wild; John Young
    Keywords: policy-making processes
  22. By: Daniel Suryadarma; Rima Prama Artha; Asep Suryahadi; Sudarno Sumarto; F. Halsey Rogers
    Keywords: ketidakhadiran, sekolah dasar, kinerja murid

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