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on South East Asia |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | A midst a bleak outlook for global growth and elevated inflation level everywhere, Indonesia's economy has shown a more optimistic attitude in the remainder of the year. The economy grew by 5.44% (y.o.y) in Q2-2022, better-than-expected and well above many consensus. Core inflation remained relatively benign compared to headline inflation, although we projected the trend will be going upward. From external side, the aggressive move by the Fed provoked a wider rate differential, resulting in the capital outflow from emerging markets. Fortunately, it did not appear in Indonesia this month due to the positive market sentiment toward domestic fundamentals, particularly after the published growth of the second quarter has amplified the capital inflows into domestic financial market. As a result, Rupiah strengthened in mid-August to a level of around IDR14, 800. Therefore, we see that BI still have some room to hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month to support external resilience while maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202208&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Massive inflationary pressures last year, were met by consistent monetary tightening efforts by Bank Indonesia since last August. As a result, headline inflation continued to decline and stood at 5.28% (y.o.y) in January 2023. The rapid capital inflow since mid-January, has lifted Rupiah to its strongest level of IDR14, 875 in early February and currently stabilized at around IDR15, 090. Considering these factors, in addition to the current less aggressive stance by the Fed, we view that holding policy rate at 5.75% this month should be adequate to maintain price and exchange rate stability while continuing the macroprudential measures without jeopardizing the current economic growth momentum. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202302&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | November inflation stood at 5.42% (y.o.y), continuing its deceleration pattern in the last three months. A combination of seasonal events as well as impact of inflation controlling efforts by the government and central bank has resulted in a sooner-than-expected inflation peak and more benign inflation rate towards the end of 2022. On the other hand, anticipated rate hike ease by major central banks has triggered surge of capital flows into emerging markets, including Indonesia. Since mid-November, net capital inflow to Indonesia has amounted to around USD2.12 billion, strengthening Rupiah to around IDR15, 500 and driving down yields for both 10-year and 1-year Indonesian government bonds to 7.02% and 5.49%, respectively. Thus, we see that BI should ease its hawkish stance and hike policy rate by 25bps this month to 5.50%. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202212&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Pressured by increasing global energy and food prices combined with seasonal patterns of Christmas and year-end festivity, Indonesia ended 2022 with headline inflation of 5.51% (y.o.y), making the full 2022 headline inflation far above BI’s target corridor. Meanwhile, Rupiah experienced slight appreciation in mid-January to around IDR15, 100 per US Dollar supported by modest capital inflows due to cooling inflation in most economies and less aggressive stance by most central banks. The Fed is expected to continue its hawkish stance in early 2023. These three combined suggested that BI still need to increase its policy rate this month by 25bps in an effort to maintain Rupiah stability as well as reducing inflationary pressure. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202301&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202304&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The inflation figure moved in reverse direction as it increased to 5.47% (y.o.y), after a downward pattern since September 2022. This mainly contributed by the combination of supply disruptions due to the occurrence of flood during the harvest season and the low base effect that played a role. From the external side, the expectation of another aggressive rate hike by the US has pushed the fund to leave Indonesia with capital outflow recorded at USD938 million since mid-February 2023. However, the recent tragedy of SVB may force the Fed to be less aggressive in tightening its monetary policy in the near future. The push to delay monetary tightening by the US shall create a momentum of flow of funds to enter the emerging markets, including Indonesia. On the other hand, domestic currency has finally stabilized after a series of depreciation with Rupiah now standing around IDR15, 367. Considering those factors, we view that BI should hold its policy rate at 5.75% this month while continuing to apply macroprudential measures to support the growth momentum. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202303&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | A though inflation eased in August 2022, it is still well above BI’s target range and expected to accelerate in the remaining months of 2022 following the fuel price hike. From external side, the Fed’s aggressive move on interest rate hikes, combined with external pressures, will continue to have an adverse impact on emerging markets, including Indonesia, in terms of capital outflows. As a result, Rupiah depreciated to a level of around IDR15, 000 per USD in the last few days. Therefore, we see that BI needs to increase its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.00% in order to maintain inflation expectations and curb future inflationary pressures, given the government’s decision of raising subsidized fuel prices earlier this month. In addition, as a pre-emptive measure following the Fed's decision on their policy rates that may induce another round of flight-to-safety moves from risky global assets, we see that it is also the right momentum for BI to start preparing a more comprehensive stabilization strategy for maintaining the exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202209&r=sea |
| By: | Kamar, Abul; Roy, Devesh |
| Abstract: | The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization that comprises seven nations, five of which are from South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka) and two from Southeast Asia (Myanmar and Thailand). BIMSTEC aims to increase trade including agri-food products to much higher levels than its historical low values lying much below potential. In 2020, intra-BIMSTEC trade accounted for a mere 6.15% of the total trade among its member countries. In contrast, intra-ASEAN trade made up around 23% of the total trade within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These figures highlight the significant room for growth in intra-regional trade among BIMSTEC member countries. Importantly the low share of intra BIMSTEC trade is not due to greater integration with supra-BIMSTEC partners. This policy note seeks to spell out some of the key agricultural trade policy-related challenges in the BIMSTEC region and their implications for economic integration in the area. |
| Keywords: | SRI LANKA; BANGLADESH; BHUTAN; INDIA; NEPAL; MYANMAR; BURMA; THAILAND; SOUTH ASIA; SOUTH EAST ASIA; ASIA; trade; agrifood sector; agricultural sector; policies; economic integration |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:march2023a&r=sea |
| By: | Faturahman, Arif |
| Abstract: | Indonesia adalah Negara yang kaya dan terkenal akan kebudayaannya dikarenakan Indonesia adalah Negara kepulauan terbesar didunia. Anyaman adalah salah satu contoh kebudayaan di Indonesia dan salah satu contoh anyaman adalah anyaman purun yang merupakan budaya khas provinsi Kalimantan Selatan, mengapa menjadi budaya khas Kalimantan Selatan dikarenakan banyak banyak tanaman purun tumbuh yang merupakan bahan dasar dari anyaman purun. Sebagai warga Negara yang baik kita wajib melestarian kebudayaan yang merupakan aset terbesar dinegara kita, khususnya budaya yang menjadi kearifan lokal suatu daerah seperti anyaman purun dan salah satu cara melestarikannya yaitu dengan mengajarkan nya disekolah, akan tetapi yang menjadi masalahnya banyak guru yang berpendapat bahwa mengajarkan budaya adalah hal yang sia-sia lebih baik fokos pada mata pelajaran yang diwajibkan seperti Matematika, IPA, IPS, Bahasa Inggris dll, padahal untuk mengajarkan kebudayaan tidak harus sebagai tambahan mata pelajaran disekolah, banyak metode yang dapat digunakan contohnya membuat sebuah budaya menjadi media untuk memahami sebuah materi yang akan diajarkan kepada peserta didik, jadi tujuan dari penulisan artikel ini untuk menjelaskan bagaimana cara menggunakan kebudayaan sebagai media dalam penjelasan materi. Adapun budaya yang dipakai adalah anyman purun dan materi yang dihubungkan yaitu kegiatan ekonomi pada mata pelajaran IPS SMP kelas 7. Penulisan ini menggunakan studi literatur yaitu, dalam pengambilan data menggunakan informasi yang dikumpulkan berupa data dan informasi dari jurnal, internet, maupun buku-buku yang relevan dengan objek yang dikaji secara ilmiah. Inti dari pembahasan artikel ini adalah bagaimana mengajarkan kegiatan ekonomi pada mata pelajaran IPS di SMP kelas 7 dengan menggunakan anyaman purun sebagai media pembelajarannya. |
| Date: | 2023–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:thb8s&r=sea |
| By: | Adityawan, Fidelis |
| Abstract: | Perbankan di Asia merupakan salah satu industri yang sangat penting bagi perekonomian dunia. Perbankan tersebut memiliki ciri khas tersendiri yang membedakan dengan perbankan di negara lain. Negara-negara di Asia memiliki banyak variasi dalam hal jenis bank, jenis layanan yang diberikan, serta peraturan perbankan yang berbeda-beda. Sebagai wilayah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sangat pesat, Asia menjadi target utama bagi lembaga keuangan global untuk mengembangkan bisnis mereka. Artikel ini menyajikan analisis perbankan di Asia dengan studi kasus di beberapa negara, termasuk Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis deskriptif berdasarkan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari berbagai sumber, termasuk laporan industri, jurnal, dan publikasi terkait. penulis mereview dari beberapa artikel penelitian kuantitatif karya dosen – dosen ekonomi di Universitas Surabaya dan dari karya penulis – penulis lainnya. Dalam melakukan review penulis menggunakan AI Bernama Chat GPT, agar menghasilkan review artikel yang lebih berkualitas bagi para pembaca. Artikel ini menunjukkan bahwa perbankan di Asia telah mengalami perkembangan pesat dalam beberapa dekade terakhir, dengan banyak bank asing dan domestik yang beroperasi di wilayah tersebut. Namun, industri perbankan Asia juga menghadapi beberapa tantangan, seperti regulasi yang ketat, persaingan yang semakin sengit, dan risiko yang tinggi terkait dengan pengembangan kredit. |
| Date: | 2023–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5ukga&r=sea |
| By: | Karin Mayr-Dorn; Gaia Narciso; Duc Anh Dang; Hien Phan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on trade diversion and the labor market in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. across industries and districts based on the extent of the U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports and provide evidence of a positive effect on labor market outcomes in Vietnam. Vietnamese workers and districts that are more exposed to the trade war display higher employment, working hours, and wages as a result. Our findings reveal that bilateral trade policy can have substantial offsetting effects on trade flows and labor markets in third countries. |
| Keywords: | trade diversion, trade war |
| JEL: | F14 F16 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-04&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Although easing due to lower food prices, inflation is still far above BI’s target range at 5.95% (y.o.y) in October 2022, following the increase in subsidized fuel prices in early September 2022. On top of that, Rupiah continued to depreciate to IDR15, 487 per US Dollar in mid-November. Globally, the Fed is expected to continue its rate hike rally in December, although at a slower pace. These three combined suggested that BI still need to increase its policy rate by 50bps this month to 5.25% in an effort to manage inflation expectation and to keep Rupiah stable. Robust economic growth in Q3-2022, supported by intact household consumption growth, provides justification for BI to continue its monetary tightening cycle. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202211&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite exceeding past BI's target, the surge in prices in June 2022 is mainly cost-push, primarily driven by price of volatile commodities. On the other hand, core inflation stood at a rather safe rate under the BI's target. Looking at the macroeconomic indicators, economic recovery appeared to be on track, indicated by the level of CCI, which was still reported in optimistic territory. The windfall from higher commodity prices also benefited trade performance, reflected by an immense surplus. The enduring risks from the external sector, however, continued to cast a shadow over the domestic market condition. A continuing strong performance of USD also added fuel to the heat of external pressure. The result was then quite obvious as evidenced by a substantial outflow and the depreciation of Rupiah. However, BI should not be in a rush to tighten its stance as it may delay economic growth. Therefore, we see that BI should continue to maintain its policy rate at 3.50% while closely observing the external dynamics. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202207&r=sea |
| By: | Justin Hastings; David Ubilava |
| Abstract: | Social conflicts are inevitable, but their occurrence and intensity have varied over time and across locations. In lower-income economies, where employment and income from agriculture are substantial, forms of political violence and social conflict may be linked with this sector. We investigate this linkage using granular conflict data covering a 13-year period across seven Southeast Asian countries. We focus on changes in conflict incidents during the rice harvest season, which is the most produced and consumed cereal crop in the region. We observe an increase in political violence but a decrease in social unrest in rice-producing areas during the harvest season. We investigate different plausible mechanisms that may lead to such effects, by incorporating shocks associated with rice prices and growing season rainfall, and by comparing regions with predominantly irrigated vs predominantly rainfed rice production practices. These findings offer important insights to policymakers as they point to possible temporal and geographic displacements of conflict, which can be linked with locations where a crop is produced and times when it is harvested. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.10027&r=sea |
| By: | Rotunno, Lorenzo; Roy, Sanchari; Sakakibara, Anri; Vezina, Pierre-Louis |
| Abstract: | We use the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam and examine its effect on Vietnam’s exports and labor markets. We find that Vietnamese exports to the US were around 40 percent higher in 2020 relative to 2017 in sectors hit by US tariffs on Chinese products. This increase is driven by both new export product varieties and increased exports in existing categories. This expansion in export opportunities led to job creation and increased working hours in affected sectors relative to non-affected ones. It also led to an increase in wages, even more so for women workers. |
| Date: | 2023–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9rdne&r=sea |
| By: | Oktavianus, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Pasar modal telah memegang peranan utama bagi perusahaan dan pemerintahan, terutama sebagai wadah untuk memperoleh dana tambahan demi kelancaran dan pengembangan usaha. Tidak hanya itu, pasar modal menjadi salah satu solusi untuk mengatasi permasalahan ekonomi negara dimana berkaitan dengan pembangunan infrastruktur, sarana, dan prasarana yang menunjang aktivitas ekonomi masyarakatnya. Di sisi lain, ditemukan banyaknya variabel atau determinan yang dapat mempengaruhi kondisi pasar modal, khususnya variabel finansial dari tingkat individu, perusahaan, hingga negara. Maka, penulis melakukan review artikel berdasarkan artikel-artikel penelitian kuantitatif karya dosen ekonomi Indonesia untuk menemukan korelasi antara berbagai variabel finansial dengan pasar modal. Dalam review artikel ini, penulis menggabungkan analisis penulis dengan analisis hasil Artificial Intelligence (AI) yang bernama Chat GPT. Hal tersebut ditujukan untuk memaksimalkan hasil review artikel agar menghasilkan wawasan berkualitas bagi pembaca dan penelitian selanjutnya. Pada akhir artikel, ditemukan bahwa variabel finansial berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pergerakan harga di pasar modal. |
| Date: | 2023–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:96yht&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite rising global inflationary pressures in most countries due to soaring global food and energy prices and supply chain disruptions, domestic inflation remains under control, mainly driven by supply-side inflation underpinned by higher Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation that has been above Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation since 2020. Domestically, we are still on a recovery path with robust economic performance and continuing series of trade balance surplus. Externally, the global economic volatility has not subdued, bringing bleak prospects for the global economy. Consequently, many central banks had already moved toward a more “hawkish†stance by raising their benchmark rates and reducing asset purchases to curb elevated domestic inflation, including the Fed, which recently raised its FFR by 75bps. This phenomenon triggers a flight to quality and depreciation in EM countries. Rupiah has been depreciated to around Rp14, 800. Considering domestic and external circumstances, BI should remain behind the curve for the time being by keeping its policy rate at 3.50% while maintaining accommodative macroprudential measures to support economic growth. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202206&r=sea |
| By: | Geumsun Byun; Mihee Park; Hyejin Ko |
| Abstract: | This research investigates how the poverty risk of young people changes according to their living arrangements by region, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). Previous studies have found that the high percentage of East Asian youth living with their parents leads to low youth poverty in the region. However, the poverty rate among young East Asian adults who are married was lower than those who lived with their parents. Young people who received sufficient financial support from their parents transitioned to independence more quickly than their peers, and lowered the associated poverty risk. In other words, young people with poor parents find it difficult to become independent, so they remain living in poor households, increasing the likelihood that poverty will be transmitted across generations. Labor market instability and economic recession makes it difficult for young people with less financial help from their parents to leave their parental homes, can increase the poverty risk of young adults, especially in East Asian societies. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:844&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Inflation continues to soar above the BI’s target range after the adjustment of subsidized fuels prices in early September 2022. The price level of energy and transportation sectors recorded the highest jump in September 2022 amid the persistently high global energy and food prices. The increase in price level slightly corrected the consumers’ confidence despite it is still in optimistic territory. From external side, the trade surplus is declining due to global commodity price normalization. At the same time, risks of global financial turmoil are still lingering with episodes of capital outflows due to aggressive monetary tightening by central banks worldwide. Although BI has raised the policy rate two times, massive capital outflows have weakened Rupiah to IDR15, 485 in mid-October. As a pre-emptive measure following the potential episodes of capital outflows caused by further interest rate hikes by the Fed next month, BI needs to raise the policy rate by 50 bps to 4.75% this month. The ahead of the curve stance is expected to cushion the impact of external uncertainty on domestic financial and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, the GoI could perform measures to maintain demand recovery and real sector optimism on economic growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202210&r=sea |
| By: | afdillah, Muhammad RIFDY |
| Abstract: | Pengertian Secara Bahasa Kata Ikhlas adalah salah satu kata dalam bahasa Indonesia yang berasal dari bahasa arab ikhlash yang dalam Kamus Bahasa Indonesia berarti tulus hati;bersih hati dan Jujur.1Menurut bahasa Arab ikhlash ) berasal dari kata Yang berarti bersih dan Hilang kotorannya. Kalimat berarti Membersihkannya dari sesuatu. Dan kalimat Berarti membersihkan agama dari sesuatu selain Allah swt. Perbuatan yang dibersihkan dinamakan ikhlashSebagaimana firman Allah swt: ingatlah! Hanya milik Allah agama yang murni (dari Syirik)....”( QS. Az Zumar [39] : 3 “Dan sungguh, pada hewan ternak itu benar-benar Terdapat pelajaran bagi kamu. Kami memberimuMinum dari apa yang ada dalam perutnya (berupa) Susu murni antara kotoran dan darah, yang mudah Ditelanbagi orang yang meminumnya.” ( QS an – Nahl [16] : 66 )Susu yang murni berarti bahwa susu itu tidakada Campurannya, mungkin campuran itu bisa berupa darah atau Kotoran. Lawan dari murni adalahcampuran. Sesuatu yang Tidak murni artinya ia mempunyai campuran di dalamnya. Murni dalam tauhid ( keesaan atau mengesakan Allah ) yaitu Mengakui tidak ada sekutu dalam wujud atau dalam sifat Allah.Kemurnian ini merupakan ungkapan lahiriah ( eksternal ) dari Niat dan maksud batiniah ( internal )dalam hati. Jika niat dan Maksud tidak berbeda, maka perbuatan yang lahir darinya Disebut perbuatanyang ikhlas, yang murni.Orang yang ikhlas itu dikatakan orang yang Mengesakan Allah, sebagaimanadinamakan surat al ikhlas Pengertian Secara IstilahDalam sebuah riwayat dikatakan : Abû Dzâr ra. Berkata, “ Aku bertanya kepada Rasulullah saw tentang ikhlas. „ Apakah ikhlas itu ?‟ ”, Beliau menjawab, : “ Akan aku Tanyakan dulu hal itu kepada Jibril.” Kemudian Rasulullah saw Bertanya kepada Jibril tentang ikhlas, maka Jibril menjawab, “ Akan aku tanyakan dulu kepada Mîkâ‟il, ” kemudian Jibril Bertanya kepada Mîkâ‟il. Maka Mîkâ‟il menjawab, “ Aku akan Bertanya dulu kepada Rabbul „Izzah.” Kemudian Mîkâ‟il Bertanya kepada Allah swt, Maka Allah swt menjawab : “Ikhlas adalah rahasia dari rahasia-rahasia-Ku yang Aku taruh di hati orang yang Aku Kehendaki dari hamba-hamba-Ku”5 Dalam hadis qudsi yang lain dikatakan : Ikhlas adalah rahasia dari rahasia-rahasia-Ku yang Aku taruh di hati orang yang Aku cintai Dari hamba-hamba-Ku” Para Ulama sufi berbeda-beda dalam mendefinisikan Ikhlas, akan tetapi pokok tujuannya sama. Menurut ulama sufi Yang bernama Sayyid Sâbiq dalam bukunya Islâmunâ Sebagaimana dikutip oleh Yunahar Ilyas dalam buku “ kuliah Akhlak” ikhlas adalah :“Seseorang berkata, berbuat, dan berjihad semata-Mata hanya mencari ridha Allah; tanpa memperhatikan Ghanimah (harta rampasan perang), pangkat, gelar, Popularitas, kemajuan, atau kemunduran; agar dia Terangkat dari perbuatan yang rendah dan akhlak yanghina serta dapat berhubungan langsung dengan Allah Swt.” |
| Date: | 2023–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:g7c8n&r=sea |
| By: | Inhoe Ku; Wonjin Lee; Aya Abe; Zhu Mengbing; Li Shi; Chungyang Yeh; Dongjin Kim |
| Abstract: | This study compares poverty among older adults in China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan with that in selected Western societies and explores factors contributing to these high levels of poverty among older adults from a comparative perspective. Lower education levels of older people contribute to high poverty among East Asian older people while multigenerational living arrangements work toward lowering the poverty rate. Among income sources, low levels of income from public transfer programs account for high old-age poverty although high levels of market income and private transfer income partly offset this among older people. Meanwhile, taking account of financial assets and home ownership does not change the comparative features of high old-age poverty among East Asian older people. Our analyses suggest that the future prospect of economic well-being among older people in the region largely hinges on the further development of welfare state programs for older people. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:842&r=sea |
| By: | Bruce Bradbury; Aya Abe; Inhoe Ku; Markus J ntti; Julia Shu-Huah Wang |
| Abstract: | Previous research has identified a distinctive East Asian model of income protection for disadvantaged children. In the wealthier East Asian societies, relative poverty rates are similar or lower than those in many Western European societies, but income transfers are low and market incomes (including private transfers) are relatively high. This chapter compares the family circumstances and household ‘income packages’ of disadvantaged children in Japan, Taiwan and (South) Korea with those in selected other OECD societies using data from the Luxembourg Income Study and national data sets. We look at poverty rates and the incomes of the poorest one-fifth of children in each society. In cross-national context, poverty rates are generally low in these three countries, despite low social transfers. Demographic factors (low fertility, small family size and parental age) play a significant role in this outcome - though they are also constraints in their own right. High rates of parental employment are also important. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:840&r=sea |
| By: | Marcia Tavares |
| Abstract: | When a country leaves (“graduates†from) the least developed countries (LDC) category, there is often concern about the impacts on the support it will receive from the international community. This paper reviews, as part of a preliminary assessment for the countries the Committee for Development Policy (CDP) will assess in 2024 (Cambodia, Comoros, Djibouti, Senegal and Zambia), the expected impacts on financial and technical assistance and on support for the participation of these countries in inter- national forums. Impacts on trade, often found to be the most significant, will be assessed separately. The general preliminary conclusion is that the impacts on development cooperation will be relatively small, as most development partners do not rely on whether or not a country is an LDC as a primary determinant of their assistance. However there are specific instruments, funds and flexibilities dedicated exclusively to LDCs and recent graduates, and some development partners have special terms and condi- tions for LDCs. It is important for countries approaching graduation to map out these areas in order to make the most of the LDC-specific support measures in the years leading up to graduation. |
| Keywords: | Development cooperation, international cooperation, financing for development, least developed countries (LDCs), LDC graduation |
| JEL: | F35 F53 F55 F63 O19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:053&r=sea |
| By: | Jones Pontoh |
| Abstract: | Interestingly the numbers of young traders in Jakarta Stock Exchange had been increasing in recent years. Even in the middle of the global crisis caused by covid19 pandemic, in December 2021 according to KSEI, Individual investors were dominated by young investors. Data presented by KSEI showed that 60 percent of the investors listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange were young investors. Other data shows that 28 percent of the investors listed were shockingly students. It was interesting to study the behavior of young and Rookie investors at the branch of stock market in Manado State University. Basically, they varied in how to make decision to trade on the stock exchange. The problems were discussed by qualitative approach. Descriptive analysis was conducted prior to interviews. Data will be collected through data observation techniques and interviews. The study succeeded in investigating the investment behavior of young or Rookie investors at Manado State University in accordance with investment decision making and the perception of behavioral control. The perception of behavioral control greatly influenced investors decision making. Students were greatly influenced by lecturer, friends and more experienced investors. The results of the interview provide information that before they determine their behavior, first they do stock analysis, both technical and fundamental analysis. These facts shows that students investors were well literate. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.04703&r=sea |
| By: | Fatma Koroglu (Management Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34367, Istanbul, Turkey Author-2-Name: Assoc. Prof. Nihan Yıldırım Author-2-Workplace-Name: Management Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, 34367, Istanbul, Turkey Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective – This study explores the social impact measurement (SIM) methods and the associated challenges from the perspective of women empowerment NGOs in Turkey. A literature review was conducted regarding the social impact measurement of non-profit organizations, social impact tools and frameworks, challenges of the social impact measurement, and business information systems used in social impact and project performance tools. Methodology – After that, a structured interview was designed and implemented to examine the output, outcome, and social impact measurement processes of 11 women's empowerment NGOs in Turkey. Findings – Coding of the data and thematic analysis was conducted based on that qualitative research, and extremely insightful findings were revealed. The lack of expertise, budget, human resources, and established processes are significant challenges for women empowerment NGOs in Turkey. Also, the results of this empirical study indicated the need for digital tools and platforms for social impact measurement, which may also be a cost-saving tool enabling knowledge transfer and process efficiency for SIM. Novelty –Together with that, the study provided unique findings that may contribute to the literature, which address some of the SIM challenges caused by funder organizations' budgeting policies and lack of demand for detailed SIM reports. Type of Paper: Empirical " |
| Keywords: | Social Impact Measurement; Women Empowerment NGOs; Social Entrepreneurship; Social Impact Evaluation; Non-profit Organizations |
| JEL: | Q19 Q22 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber232&r=sea |
| By: | Salvatore Certo; Anh Pham; Nicolas Robles; Andrew Vlasic |
| Abstract: | A framework to learn a multi-modal distribution is proposed, denoted as the Conditional Quantum Generative Adversarial Network (C-qGAN). The neural network structure is strictly within a quantum circuit and, as a consequence, is shown to represents a more efficient state preparation procedure than current methods. This methodology has the potential to speed-up algorithms, such as Monte Carlo analysis. In particular, after demonstrating the effectiveness of the network in the learning task, the technique is applied to price Asian option derivatives, providing the foundation for further research on other path-dependent options. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.10382&r=sea |
| By: | Frick, Susanne; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are a popular policy tool for the promotion of economic development. However, questions remain about their economic contribution and about what aspects of SEZ policies are most relevant to investors. This article sheds light on these issues by comparing SEZs across Africa, Asia and Latin America. We find that, while investment decisions by foreign companies are driven by market access, political stability and low labour costs, adequate SEZ policies facilitate the attraction of investment. A good industrial infrastructure together with a strategic location and service provision within the zones draw investment. Fiscal incentives, by contrast, have a limited influence on investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | special economic zones; inward investment; industrial policy; developing countries; FDI location decision |
| JEL: | F21 O14 O24 L52 |
| Date: | 2023–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118117&r=sea |
| By: | Atkinson, Craig |
| Abstract: | With the emergence of new modes of governance, the article specifies a legal-technical basis – background, analytical structure, sources, methods, and research questions – to advance the notion of a ‘computable’ transatlantic trade agreement. |
| Abstract: | Applications of Computational Law (CompLaw) are emerging that allow for the expression and online publication of digital versions of rules as algorithms to improve accessibility for humans and support operationalization via machines. As instruments begin to refer to governance for, of, and by information and communications technology (ICT), this article introduces public and private branches of law to construct a five-point legal-technical basis for a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) 'version 2.0' with computational rules (and data sources) in parallel to its natural language, other texts, and associated systems. First, the nature of the European Union (EU)-United States (US) relationship is described in the age of Computational Law and the Internet. Second, the analysis explores the ‘multilateral interface’ and proposals under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Joint Initiative on E-commerce. Third, existing and envisaged sources of EU and US trade, business, technology, and privacy law are compared. Fourth, the investigation frames institutional sources of transnational commercial law, including the principles, conventions, and model laws of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) and the International Institute for the Unification of Private Law (UNIDROIT). Fifth, technical requirements to seize the CompLaw opportunity for transatlantic trade are articulated. Outputs of the specified analytical structure are set to contribute to the advancement of legal informatics at the nexus of EU-US trade and technology policy regimes. Article by Craig Atkinson, WTI Non-Resident Fellow and Visiting Scholar at Singapore Management University's Yong Pung How School of Law, published by the Stanford –Vienna Transatlantic Technology Law Forum in the Transatlantic Antitrust and IPR Developments Newsletter Issue No. 1/2023 (May 12, 2023), pp. 31-37 (open access). |
| Date: | 2023–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1394&r=sea |
| By: | Chinh T. Mai (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University); Akira Hibiki (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes an in-depth study of the short- and long-term effects of floods on the cognitive development of school-aged children. Specifically, we exploit individual-level microdata from a longitudinal study of childhood poverty in Vietnam. Our analyses indicate that floods immediately imposed negative impacts on children’s cognitive skills, but these impacts would be mitigated in the long run. Changes in child schooling, time allocation between school and work, and household food consumption (child nutrition) appear to be potential channels behind these impacts. Girls, older children, firstborn children, and children belonging to ethnic minorities are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of flooding. Our results suggest that policies to alleviate the credit constraints of households in the above groups could mitigate the damage imposed by natural disasters on human capital accumulation. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2023cf1211&r=sea |
| By: | Saroj, Sunil; Roy, Devesh; Kamar, Abul; Pradhan, Mamata |
| Abstract: | The focus of research on international trade has recently shifted from industries and countries to firms. Firm heterogeneity is shown to be a determinant of trade at both the intensive margin (increase exports per firm/product) and extensive margins (the number of firms exporting – new products, new partners, new varieties, and new prices). It is now widely accepted that exporting firms are larger, comparatively productive, more skilled, and capital-intensive, and pay higher wages than non-exporting firms. The innovations in international trade literature that explains both the emergence as well as levels and the nature of trade flows through value chain integration necessitates examining trade-based exchanges at the highest possible levels of product disaggregation. Developments in trade theory emphasize that it is individual firms not countries that trade and analysis needs to incorporate firm characteristics in decisions and ability for exporting and importing. Firms are the appropriate unit of analysis for trade flows. It helps several paradoxes once the import of firm heterogeneity is understood. Despite the substantive importance of granular level data and the significant level of disaggregated product-level bilateral trade flow data and enhanced computing power that are becoming available, most studies have tended to rely on analysis with high level of aggregation. Recent research on firm heterogeneity in international trade highlights the importance of extensive margins i.e., new products, new partners, new varieties, and cumulative of these i.e., new prices in trade patterns and firms' responses to trade liberalization and other policy changes. However, the high dimensionality of the data and the large number of responses to changes can easily overwhelm researchers. Additionally, bigger data sets may contain more noise, which can mask important systematic patterns. In analysis of trade flows, notwithstanding the rising incidence of differentiated products (varieties) and value chains that transcend national boundaries, methods in agri-food trade analysis in particular have not kept pace in terms of empirical methods and suitable data. |
| Keywords: | BANGLADESH; BHUTAN; NEPAL; INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; MYANMAR; BURMA; SRI LANKA; THAILAND; SOUTH EAST ASIA; ASIA; international trade; firms; exports; productivity; wages; value chain; innovations; data; agri-food system; policies |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:april2023&r=sea |
| By: | Sabri Boubaker (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie, VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]); Zhenya Liu (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, Renmin University of China); Ling Zhai (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | A vast quantity of high-dimensional, unstructured textual news data is produced every day, more than two decades after the launch of the global Internet. These big data have a significant influence on the way that decisions are made in business and finance, due to the cost, scalability, and transparency benefits that they bring. However, limited studies have fully exploited big data to analyze changes in news diversity or to predict financial market movements, specifically stock market crashes. Based on modern methods of textual analysis, this paper investigates the relationship between news diversity and financial market crashes by applying the change-point detection approach. The empirical analysis shows that (1) big data is a relatively new and useful tool for assessing financial market movements, (2) there is a relationship between news diversity and financial market movements. News diversity tends to decline when the market falls and volatility soars, and increases when the market is on an upward trend and in recovery, and (3) the multiple structural breaks detected improve the ability to forecast stock price movements. Therefore, changes to news diversity, embedded in big data, can be a useful indicator of financial market crashes and recoveries. |
| Keywords: | Big data, News diversity, Textual analysis, Change-point, Financial crisis |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03511405&r=sea |
| By: | Janjala Chirakijja (Monash University); Seema Jayachandran (Princeton University and NBER); Pinchuan Ong (National University of Singapore Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the price of home heating affects mortality in the US. Exposure to cold is one reason that mortality peaks in winter, and a higher heating price increases exposure to cold by reducing heating use. Our empirical approach combines spatial variation in the energy source used for home heating and temporal variation in the national prices of natural gas and electricity. We find that a lower heating price reduces winter mortality, driven mostly by cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Our estimates imply that the 42% drop in the natural gas price in the late 2000s, mostly driven by the shale gas boom, averted 12, 500 deaths per year in the US. The effect appears to be especially large in high-poverty communities. |
| Keywords: | Mortality, Home Heating, Heating Prices |
| JEL: | I30 I31 I39 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:305&r=sea |