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on South East Asia |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A.; Mercado, Elmer S.; Rodil-Ocampo, Amillah |
| Abstract: | Interlocal cooperation has long been promoted in the Philippines to address the resource limitations of local government units; however, there is a lack of discussion on how it can efficiently deliver urban services. This study aims to investigate cooperation models in the delivery of critical urban services by evaluating the management structure, financing strategies, sustainability, and issues/challenges of the interlocal arrangement in relation to operationalization. It focuses on answering the following policy questions: (1) what forms of interlocal cooperation have been utilized in the delivery of urban services; (2) how has interlocal cooperation improved the delivery of urban services; and (3) how can interlocal cooperation work better and be sustained given the decentralized nature of local politics. A closer look through findings from desk reviews and interviews is given to solid waste management and healthcare since they have been identified as services wherein cooperation among LGUs is extensively developed. Reforms are then proposed to improve the effectiveness of interlocal cooperation in efficiently delivering urban services. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | interlocal cooperation;Mandanas-Garcia Supreme Court Ruling;metropolitan arrangement;solid waste management;healthcare;local government units;LGU |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-08&r=sea |
| By: | Albert Ludi Angkawibawa; Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Leaders' qualities are an essential part of economic growth and policymaking. Nonetheless, in many cases, the information about leaders’ qualities and characteristics is limited. This study investigates and provides new information about leadership characteristics in Indonesia. We collect novel datasets from the curriculum vitae of local leaders (e.g., mayors, vice mayors, regents, and vice-regents) at districts in Indonesia to understand the leaders in Indonesia’s political environment. We ï¬ nd that most of the local leaders in Indonesia are male, highly educated, experienced, and had experience in bureaucracy. Our results suggest that Indonesia’s political system is still dominated by speciï¬ c groups and exclusive to certain groups. However, our study suggests that since it transitioned into a democratized country in 1998, the quality of elected leaders’ quality in Indonesia has improved. Nonetheless, it remains unclear whether these characteristics lead to better policy choices. |
| Keywords: | leaders' characteristics — political entry — political selection — Indonesia |
| JEL: | H1 H70 J45 P16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202375&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite the economic bleakness in the global economy following serious disruptions of prolonged Covid-19 spread, geopolitical tension, rising food and energy prices, and overheating inflation throughout 2022, Indonesia has managed to persistently grow at 5.72% (y.o.y) in Q3-2022. The figure is the highest level in the last ten years and marks its third consecutive quarter having a growth rate higher than expectations. The growth was mainly supported by the solid demand and production activity as Indonesia managed to channel the commodity windfall profit to increase the budget and delay the fuel price hike. Moreover, the relatively low growth in the same period previous year has also contributed to the higher-than-expected growth in Q3-2022. Manufacturing industry as the biggest sector to contribute to GDP recorded a significant growth increase from 4.01% (y.o.y) in Q2-2022 to 4.83% (y.o.y) in Q3-2022. From expenditure side, the robust household consumption of 5.39% (y.o.y) and investment growth of 4.96% (y.o.y) has played an important role in boosting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202301&r=sea |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The auspicious progress in the domestic public health situation has transpired into a solid GDP growth of 5.01% (y.o.y) in Q1-2022. In the first half of 2022, Indonesia was in an advantageous position to face the latest global economic turmoil. Thanks to the combination of good policy and good luck, first, a rapid buildup of economic activity. Major economic sectors, such as manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, construction, and ICT, contributing to around 50% of GDP, recorded a rising growth in Q1-2022. In addition, sectors relied on physical activities, such as transportation & storage and accommodation & FnB showed substantial improvement due to the relaxation of social restriction policies. The economic recovery was also reflected in household consumption with 4.34% (y.o.y) growth in Q1-2022, higher compared to the last three months of 2021. Household consumption will most likely grow greater in Q2-2022 due to the momentum of Ramadhan and Eid Al-Fitr. At the same time, total credit continued to accelerate along with demand recovery. Moreover, all other expenditure components, investment and exports, also recorded positive growths in the same period. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202203&r=sea |
| By: | Rus’an Nasrudin (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Djoni Hartono (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faizal Rahmanto Moeis (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Andhika Putra Pratama (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Raka Rizky Fadilla (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Rustam Effendi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | This article summarises the distributional and economic-wide impact of several policy scenarios of recent tax policy changes in Indonesia. Some of the scenario’s designs are directly drawn from the changes in the new Indonesian tax law or UU HPP (Law on Harmonization of Tax Regulations) concerning broadening the value-added tax (VAT) base. We use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Microsimulation approach to calculate the impact of these scenarios on economic growth, inflation, government revenue, poverty and inequality. All the scenarios intended to make the tax system simpler and more efficient, with less distortion, and broaden the tax base resulting in low to moderate effects on both macro and distributional indicators accompanied by a significant increase in the government revenue. Our results provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of the current VAT Law Implementation. |
| Keywords: | VAT — Indonesia — tax reform — growth — poverty — inequality |
| JEL: | H20 K34 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202272&r=sea |
| By: | MANO, Yukichi; ARIMOTO, Yutaka; Nguyen, Duy Can; Do, Van Hoang; KOJIN, Emi; Nguyen, Thiet; TSUKADA, Kazunari; Vo, Hong Tu |
| Abstract: | Quality control in fertilizer markets is critical to food security by facilitating fertilizer application and increasing agricultural productivity. With the active proliferation of new fertilizer producers, Vietnam has also faced this problem, but public and market initiatives have recently been taken to address the issue This paper evaluates the quality of 141 randomly sampled fertilizers in the Mekong Delta, the country’s central rice producing area. We intentionally sampled unbranded products to focus on the most vulnerable market segment. On average, our sample contains the labeled nutrient content. However, the quality variability is high, and half of the sample has at least one nutrient content below the legal requirement. We also find that nitrogen is over-concentrated and phosphate is diluted. These findings suggest that the quality of fertilizers in Vietnam, even unbranded ones, is reliable on average, but efforts are needed to stabilize quality variability. In addition, over-concentration of nitrogen may warrant policy attention as farmers may inadvertently over-apply nitrogen and harm the environment. |
| Keywords: | low-quality fertilizer, experience goods, Vietnam |
| JEL: | L15 L51 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-129&r=sea |
| By: | Augendra Bhukuth (Ieseg Management School, France); Damien Bazin (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS); Ani Wulandri (Narotama University, Surabaya, Indonesia); Valentina Teslenko (ARENAP, Russia) |
| Abstract: | Family businesses operating mainly in the informal economy in East Java, Indonesia, generally employ family members and neighbors. As part of a qualitative study on employer-employee relationships, we interviewed the owners of 37 of these family businesses (30 small and 7 medium) to investigate the level of responsibility they feel towards their employees. By using a Social Capital approach to analyze the data, we found that the relationship between employers and employees is based on trust, and that family businesses have to maintain this trust to be able to sustain their activities in a highly competitive market. We then describe the ups and downs of managing employees when the employer-employee relationship is close. |
| Keywords: | Decent work, Employers-employees relationship, Family Business, Informal sector, Microenterprises, Social benefits, Social capital |
| JEL: | D22 J15 J24 J46 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2022-11&r=sea |
| By: | Bisuk Abraham Sisungkunon (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Wildan Al Kautsar Anky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Municipal solid waste (MSW) management remains a challenge in in Pekanbaru. To avoid the negative externalities associated with improper waste disposal, the development of waste-based power plant (or PLTSa), including through incineration technology, is increasingly viewed as an attractive option. This study estimated that electricity generation potential from MSW in Pekanbaru could reach 0.021 MW/ton MSW and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from incineration PLTSa is around 21.03¢ per kWh. Waste calori?c value and feedstock supply are essential to maintain the cost competitiveness of incineration PLTSa in Pekanbaru. |
| Keywords: | international economy — open economy — economic integration — digital economy — sustainable economy — ASEAN |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202273&r=sea |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Maddawin, Ricxie B.; Diokno-Sicat, Charlotte Justine; Palomar, Robert Hector G.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C. |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and lockdown measures taken to control its spread brought economies to a halt, turning the public health crisis into an economic one. Though government responses, such as labor and social welfare protection programs, were similar to recent economic crises like the Global and Asian Financial Crises, the origin of the current situation being public health rather than financial markets, put the spotlight on the health sector and the need for its strengthening both to manage COVID-19 and ensure sustainable economic recovery. This study examines the relationship between health spending and labor productivity. Will the COVID-19 pandemic crisis trigger more meaningful public investments in health? How can we build back better health policy for labor productivity? Answering these questions requires establishing that health policy and indicators are associated with labor productivity measures. If there is such evidence, there is a need to examine pre-pandemic public health expenditures and policies and compare these to health policies of comparable countries with better health outcomes. This would guide policymakers in improving health sector outcomes and overall productivity. This sought evidence of the association of health policy and indicators with labor productivity on two levels across (1) comparable ASEAN countries and (2) Philippine regions. The results showed that public health expenditures were robust and significant for GDP per capita (across ASEAN countries) and regional GDP per worker (RGDP, Philippine regional estimations). This suggests that increased public health spending is associated with increased labor productivity. For the cross-country results, life expectancy and gross capital investments were also positively significant, indicating increased productivity with longer life (i.e., a healthier population) and physical capital/tools and infrastructure (consistent with neoclassical growth theory or NGT). For Philippine regional regressions, only the proportion of the working-age population was significant but negative, possibly suggesting that a bigger work force is associated with lower productivity (ceteris paribus, which is consistent with NGT and the law of diminishing marginal product). Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | labor demand;labor supply;neoclassical growth theory;public health expenditure;labor productivity |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-07&r=sea |
| By: | Karin Mayr-Dorn (JKU Linz); Gaia Narciso (Trinity College Dublin); Duc Anh Dang (NCIF); Hien Phan (NCIF) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on trade diversion and the labor market outcomes in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in Vietnamese exports following the unexpected and exogenous U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports and find that Vietnamese workers and districts more exposed to the trade war display higher employment, longer working hours, and higher wages as a result of the U.S.-China trade war. The effects are mainly driven by women and non-college-educated individuals. Our findings reveal that bilateral trade policies can have substantial spillover effects on trade flows and labor markets in third countries. |
| Keywords: | trade diversion, trade war |
| JEL: | F14 F16 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0923&r=sea |
| By: | Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Abrigo, Michael R.M. |
| Abstract: | Using a human capital model with stochastic lifetimes, this study assesses the potential long-term impacts of human capital spending shocks in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic on survival, lifetime income, and inequality. In the model, health and education spending separately affect survival rates and potential labor productivity, allowing the authors to trace how the pandemic’s effects may propagate through the economic lifecycle. Using recent National Transfer Account estimates for the Philippines, simulation results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect health and labor productivity, potentially worsening income inequality in the long run. These impacts appear to be more pronounced for some birth cohorts. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;National Transfer Accounts;human capital;health and labor productivity;income inequality |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-06&r=sea |
| By: | Sutrisno, Sutrisno |
| Abstract: | This research examines the dual effect of CEO, board independence, ownership concentration, and company age on earnings persistence and firm value in manufacturing companies in West Java, Indonesia. The study conducted a survey of 78 manufacturing companies in West Java in 2022. The results show that CEO duality has a negative effect on earnings persistence, while board independence has a positive effect on earnings persistence. Ownership concentration has no significant effect on earnings persistence, and company age has a positive effect on earnings persistence. In addition, board independence and company age have a positive effect on firm value, while CEO duality and ownership concentration have no significant effect on firm value. These findings suggest that companies with separate CEO and board chairman positions and higher board independence are more likely to have persistent earnings and higher firm value. The study also implies that company age plays an important role in determining earnings persistence and firm value. |
| Date: | 2023–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dzvf8&r=sea |
| By: | Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman; Maria Monica Wihardja |
| Abstract: | Municipal solid waste (MSW) management remains a challenge in in Pekanbaru. To avoid the negative externalities associated with improper waste disposal, the development of waste-based power plant (or PLTSa), including through incineration technology, is increasingly viewed as an attractive option. This study estimated that electricity generation potential from MSW in Pekanbaru could reach 0.021 MW/ton MSW and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from incineration PLTSa is around 21.03¢ per kWh. Waste calori?c value and feedstock supply are essential to maintain the cost competitiveness of incineration PLTSa in Pekanbaru. |
| Keywords: | digital technology — impact assessment — SDG |
| JEL: | L86 N70 O14 Q55 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202274&r=sea |
| By: | Hartanto, Soni |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the significance of the influence of Supply Chain Management Practices, Supply Chain Integration, Information Technology and innovation on Business Performance in manufacturing companies in East Java. This study uses a survey research design to top management who is responsible for the operations of manufacturing companies in East Java Province, Indonesia on a large scale where the number is 1, 231 companies based on data processed by the East Java Industry and Trade Office that received convenience facilities during 2020. Based on the Slovin formula, the research sample required a number of 93 respondentsThe data analysis technique in this study used Partial Least Square (PLS). The results show (1) Supply Chain Management Practices and Supply Chain Integration has a positive and significant effect on Innovation, (2) Supply Chain Management Practices and Supply Chain Integration has a positive and significant effect on Information Technology, (3) Supply Chain Practices and Supply Chain has a positive and significant effect on Business Performance (4) Information Technology has a positive and significant effect on Business Performance, (5) Information Technology has a positive and significant effect on Business Performance |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:28zbq&r=sea |
| By: | Yunfang Hu; Takuma Kunieda; Kazuo Nishimura; Ping Wang |
| Abstract: | We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign technology adoption, incorporating adoption barriers, international technology spillover, and relative price advantages. A higher FDI conversion efficacy, a lower adoption barrier, or a stronger international technology spillover, together with a lower relative price of FDI, can propel an economy to exhibit a flying geese paradigm escaping from a middle-income trap and catching up with the world frontier. We calibrate the model to eight representative Asian economies, including Asian Tigers and less-developed countries. Growth accounting exercises show that total factor productivity, FDI conversion efficacy, and foreign technology spillover drive Asian Tigers’ growth miracle, whereas a reduced adoption barrier and a favorable relative price of FDI are more crucial for the growth of less-developed Asian economies. The counterfactual analysis confirms that technology-embodied FDI serves as a flying propeller, explaining almost two-thirds of their economic growth. |
| JEL: | E20 F21 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31159&r=sea |
| By: | Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Diana Contreras Suarez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yi-Ping Tseng (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Although it is well established that women’s labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little is known about women’s labour market transitions, especially in developing countries. This paper uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey to track the employment histories of over 9, 000 women across a period of more than 20 years, observing them as they get married and have children. The data show that large numbers of Indonesian women drop out of the labour market as a result of marriage and childbearing. The difficulty of maintaining formal sector employment emerges as a key problem. Having worked in the formal sector prior to the birth of a first child reduces the probability of working in the year following the birth by 20 percentage points and reduces the probability of returning to the labour market thereafter by 3.6 percentage points. Further, to the extent that women do return to work, formal sector employment is associated with greater delays in returning - women are more likely to return to work in the formal sector only once their child starts primary school, while in the informal sector they return earlier. We find little evidence of women switching from the formal to the informal sector. Formal sector labour market policies such as flexible work hours; compressed work weeks; part-time work (with the same career opportunities and benefits as full-time work); the ability to work from home; and work-based childcare are likely to boost women’s labour force participation, with consequent boosts to economic productivity and prosperity. |
| Keywords: | female labour force participation, labour market transitions, economic development, childbearing |
| JEL: | J20 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2023n06&r=sea |
| By: | Jang, Youngook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Seungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Song, Jihei (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jegook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Minji (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 보고서는 환경이주의 다양한 양상을 종합적으로 다룬 최초의 국문 연구이다. 본 보고서에서는 기후 및 환경 변화가 이주와 노동시장에 미치는 영향을 현지조사, 전문가 면담, 사례조사, 문헌조사 및 실증분석을 통해 규명하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 기후변화 및 자연재해의 직간접적 영향으로 인한 국제이주는 앞으로 가속화될 것으로 보인다. 한국 역시 이 영향력에서 자유롭지 않은바, 환경이주가 야기할 산업 및 노동시장 재편에 대한 선제적인 대응책 마련이 필요하다. This report provides a comprehensive investigation of environmental migration, which is expected to accelerate in the future due to the direct and indirect effects of climate change and natural disasters. The report is the first Korean-language study to address the various aspects of environmental migration and employs various research methods, includingfield research, expert interviews, case studies, literature review, and empirical analysis.Chapter 2 classifies migration due to climate and environmental factors into three categories: i) displacement due to extreme weather events and disasters, ii) displacement due to gradual climate change, and iii) displacement due to a combination of factors. It reviews the current status, cases, and prospects of each category. This chapter also highlights the impact of various environmental factors such as typhoons, floods, extreme heat events, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, which can cause immediate displacement of large numbers of people.Chapters 3 through 5 conduct case studies in Central America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, respectively. Chapter 3 provides case studies of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, examining how climate change and the frequent occurrence of intense natural disasters are linked to migration in these countries. In these countries, declining agricultural productivity, particularly among subsistence farmers and seasonal laborers, is likely to worsen the socioeconomic situation, leading them to choose migration as a last resort climate change adaptation mechanism. Chapter 4 examines climate and environmental factors and migration trends in Morocco, Senegal, Nigeria, and Somalia. This chapter illustrates how climate change and environmental change are driving migration in these countries through case studies and field research. The impact of drought on migration in Morocco, Senegal, and Nigeria is particularly significant, with increased internal, international, temporary, and permanent migration due to drought. The more agriculturally dependent and drought-affected communities are, the more likely they are to choose to migrate themselves or their family members as an adaptation to environmental change.(the rest ormitted) |
| Keywords: | 국제이주; 노동시장; international migration; labor market |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_016&r=sea |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | Many have noticed the rise of China and warned of underlying danger to regional stability in Northeast Asia leading to global instability. A discourse about whether China and the U.S. will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’s Trap” has begun. Some observers are concerned that the active maritime military action of China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait may lead to unexpected conflicts between China and other Northeast Asian actors with eventual US-China confrontation. I present some conceptual elaborations of “Thucydides’s Trap” from both a scientific realist view of causal depth and a deeper form of neoclassical realism in international relations with appropriate historiography. I offer evidence from recent history of Northeast Asian international relations that the trap is avoidable but avoiding it requires important confidence building measures. The neoclassical realist considerations of internal politics of key actors shows an overwhelming consensus regarding peaceful conflict resolution via a grand strategy of cooperation with some conflicts that can be resolved through negotiations in good faith. While a full blown theory of Thucydides’s Trap within the broader framework of power transition theory is still to be worked out, this work can also be seen as a step in that direction. Although detailed analysis of the best available current historical evidence from Northeast Asia within a critical neoclassical realist(CNR), or more detailed critical transneoclassical realist(CTNR) paradigm shows that the so-called “Thucydides’s Trap” is not inevitable, recognizing the actual opportunities and constraints in order to escape the trap has hardly begun. Since the consequences of an actual war are so severe, both conceptual analysis of sovereignty and power based on realist principles and applied consequentialist reasoning offer strong arguments for finding credible means to avoid the trap. This chapter points to some feasible steps in light of a careful reading of recent history of Northeast Asian relations and offers a tentative scientific realist conceptualization of the “Thucydides’s Trap.” In particular, the CNR theory based analysis already shows the limitations of the structural neorealism on which Mearsheimer explicitly and Allison implicitly base their arguments about US-PRC rivalry and tensions. Using the causally deeper CNR approach and the concrete case of tensions in Northeast Asia, the present work can be seen as a necessary step in the direction of developing an applicable theory of “Thucydides’s Trap” with sufficient causal depth and analytical reach within a yet broader and more useful global theory. This effort will be a further step towards building a complexity theory based multiplex cooperative new global order, or CTMNGO combining constructively a critical transneoclassical realism(CTNR) with global and regional cooperative institution building for our genuine planetary common good. |
| Keywords: | National Interest; Critical Neoclassical Realism(CNR); CTNR; Complexity Theory-based Multiplex New Global Order(CTMNGO);US-PRC Relations; Northeast Asian International Relations; Thucydides’s Trap; Scientific Realism; China’s Foreign Policy, US Grand Strategy |
| JEL: | A1 F5 P0 |
| Date: | 2023–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117089&r=sea |
| By: | Hải, Lưu Đức; Mai, Pham Thi; Tien, Truong Manh; Khai, Nguyen Quang; Khuc, Quy Van; Duc, Pham Tien |
| Abstract: | Bài viết này trình bày tổng quan về các vấn đề môi trường và tài nguyên trong hoạt động khai thác và chế biến tại hai công ty Nhôm TKV Lâm Đồng và TKV Đắc Nông. Trên cơ sở đó đưa ra mô hình kinh tế tuần hoàn trong hoạt động khai thác và chế biến bauxite ở các tỉnh vùng Tây Nguyên. Bằng các số liệu cụ thể từ việc khai thác và chế biến quặng bauxite của hai công ty trên, bài viết đã đánh giá các lợi ích kinh tế xã hội và môi trường, cũng như đề xuất các giải pháp cụ thể để triển khai có hiệu quả mô hình kinh tế tuần hoàn cho hoạt động khai thác và chế biến bauxite tại Tây Nguyên. |
| Date: | 2023–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mpn2q&r=sea |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | Abstract The debate about the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the west seems to have reached an impasse in the absence of any model-based scientific analysis. In order to assess the impact of BRI using consequentialist logic, it is desirable to have model-based counterfactual results. This paper is a first step in that direction. Aggregate consequences for the Chinese economy in terms of economic growth, output and employment impacts are estimated for two BRI scenarios—a high investment and demand scenario and the current low investment and demand scenario. Some important dynamic econometric issues are discussed in an appendix. Also, a more complex economic systems model with explicit banking and financial sectors for the Chinese economy is presented for further, more sophisticated modeling work. As a first approximation, the current modeling results show that BRI will certainly not harm the Chinese economy; but the low demand scenario does not translate into great gains either. The high demand longer term scenario is much more attractive for the economic policymakers in China. However, even in that instance the economic consequences alone cannot justify the strategic importance given to BRI by the Chinese rulers. One possible conclusion is that the geopolitical motives are the main drivers of BRI with modest prospects of economic gains but real prospects of energy security and overall trade and investment security. But this is a delicate and fraught game in geoeconomics and geopolitics in the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative, China, East Asia, Social Accounting Matrix, Finance |
| JEL: | C3 F02 F6 |
| Date: | 2023–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117005&r=sea |
| By: | Ayedi Ahmed (UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Marjène Gana (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal); Stéphane Goutte (UMI SOURCEE - Université Paris-Saclay); Khaled Guesmi (PSB - Paris School of Business - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to create optimal two-asset portfolios consisting of stocks from Western Europe, the United States, and the BRICS (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa), as well as sixteen commodity types during the BREXIT period. We utilized dynamic variances and covariances from the GARCH model to derive weights for the two-asset portfolios, with each portfolio consisting of one equity factor and one commodity factor. Subsequently, hedge ratios were calculated for these various assets. Our findings indicate that portfolios consisting of European stocks do not require the inclusion of commodities, whereas the other equities do. |
| Keywords: | Equity markets, commodity markets, BREXIT, portfolio optimization |
| Date: | 2023–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04068644&r=sea |