nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2023‒04‒17
twenty papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia By Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga
  3. Modeling Quality of Urban Life Using Grey Analytical Hierarchy Process By Huynh, Vy Dang Bich; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh
  4. Career Path Choice in the Industry 4.0 using Grey Decision Making By Nguyen, Hung The; Lam, Bao Quoc; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh; Huynh, Vy Dang Bich
  6. G20: Vehicle for Indonesia's Economic Recovery By Suryawijaya, Tito Wira Eka; Priono, Samuel Adi; Ingsih, Kusni
  8. Evaluate Ho Chi Minh City Sustainability Using Fuzzy Extent Analysis Method By Dinh, Hien Thi Thu; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh
  9. Top 25% Institutions and Economists in Viet Nam, as of January 2023 By RePEc, IDEAS
  10. Kreativitas Digital UMKM: Strategi Pengembangan, Operasional, dan Pemasaran By Karsono, Lorena Dara Putri; Lida, Ulfah Mey
  11. Health Insurance and Agricultural Investments: Evidence from Rural Thailand By Liu, K.; Prommawin, B.; Schroyen, F.
  12. Yin and colleagues (2018): Impacts of biophilic environment exposure on human physiological and cognitive performance through mindsponge theory perspective By Nguyen, Minh_Hieu Thi Dr
  13. On the Welfare Role of Redundant Assets with Heterogenous Forecasts By Shurojit Chatterji; Atsushi Kajii
  14. Measuring empowerment across the value chain: The evolution of the project-level Women’s Empowerment Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI) By Malapit, Hazel J.; Heckert, Jessica; Adegbola, Patrice Ygué; Crinot, Geraud Fabrice; Eissler, Sarah; Faas, Simone
  15. Income and wildlife hunting in the Anthropocene : Evidence from Cambodia By Kader, Sharar
  16. Food prices and the wages of the poor: A low-cost, high-value approach to high-frequency food security monitoring By Headey, Derek D.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Marshall, Quinn; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Mahrt, Kristi
  17. The state of e-commerce industry after Covid-19 pandemic and some development policies By Hiep, Phuoc Minh
  18. Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics By Danny Hermawan; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko; Richard I. Yusan
  19. Network and Text Analysis on Digital Trade Agreements By Lee, Kyu Yub; Lee, Cheon-Kee; Choi, Won Seok; Eom, Jun-Hyun; Whang, Unjung
  20. Tác động của đại dịch COVID-19 đối với thương mại quốc tế ở các nước đang phát triển: bằng chứng từ Việt Nam By Phan, Ngoc

  1. By: Ecker, Olivier; Alderman, Harold; Comstock, Andrew R.; Headey, Derek D.; Mahrt, Kristi; Pradesha, Angga
    Abstract: This study addresses the policy-relevant question of how, in the face of major economic shocks, social protection interventions can more effectively mitigate undernutrition. In particular, it considers the scope of scaled-up fortification of staples to avert the “hidden hunger†of micronutrient deficiencies. As a re-cent and still relevant example, it focuses on the kinds of economic shocks brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic which, especially during the first lockdowns of April 2020, resulted in severe job and income losses for the poor and thus reduction and changes in spending, with urban and rural non-farm households typically affected more severely than farm households. However, the findings of this study are relevant for other economic shocks that severely reduce household’s disposable income. In this study, we examine the effects of stylized economic shocks on household incomes in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia, with a focus on the difference between recommended and actual consumption of particular foods and nutrients. To this end, we use a novel combination of three integrated models to examine impacts and experiment with different types of social protection interventions. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, these are stylized models of the COVID-19 shock and government lock-downs; in Myanmar, however, we model the economic instability that took place after the February 2021 military takeover, which – in conjunction with COVID-19 impacts – resulted in an estimated 18 percent contraction in GDP (World Bank 2022).
    Keywords: BANGLADESH; MYANMAR; BURMA; INDONESIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; economics; households; social protection; undernutrition; shocks; income; food consumption; cash transfers
    Date: 2023
  2. By: KHAIR, ANDI UMMUL; Latief, Fitriani
    Abstract: The development of coffee outlets or what is claimed to be a modern cafe has recently been growing rapidly in all regions in Indonesia where the term cafe originated from the coffee shop business which is widely available on street corners in Indonesia. This business was then made modernly by adopting the sale of Starbucks coffee, which then led to the public's mindset that drinking coffee may look exclusive. This brilliant inspiration for middle-up class coffee shops was then adapted by entrepreneurs in Indonesia who later created cafes that serve coffee using the latest atmosphere. The concept of this coffee shop has become a trend that is selling well among young people and adults so that it becomes a business that has enough prospects to work on. However, many businesses have fallen and even survived in recent years because consumers are critical in choosing products that match their class and expectations. Therefore, the company must be able to make efforts to create brand awareness as did Starbucks as it became a brand leader in coffee sales in the world. Starbucks promotion and brand image formation were analyzed in this study. Regression analysis was applied to find out the effect of promotion and brand image on brand awareness. The result shows that these two variables positively and significantly influence brand awareness. The better the company in building channels of information and persuasion in introducing a product or service, the better the public awareness in recognizing products and services. Meanwhile, the better the brand image received by the public, the awareness of the brand product will be higher.
    Date: 2022–03–23
  3. By: Huynh, Vy Dang Bich; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh
    Abstract: Economic growth has recently been crowded out by life quality in the new development pattern. Unlike the income-based measurement of economic growth, the life quality measure has become a challenge because it is a multidimensional concept that relies on the subjective evaluation of the involved stakeholders in a particular context. The objective of this study was to investigate the model of quality of urban life in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam based on subjective indicators. The grey analytical hierarchy process were employed to analyze the data from thirty in-depth interviews with experts in the field. The empirical model of quality of urban life in Ho Chi Minh City was found with three levels. The ranking results at the second level emphasized the high shares of health, employment, and income compared to self-esteem, socialization, and family happiness. The ranking results at the second level emphasized the high shares of health, employment, and income compared to self-esteem, socialization, and family happiness. Further investigation at the third level has confirmed the superiority of non-material components in the quality of urban life model in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The findings were critical in implying the policy concentration on non-material values enhancement to raise the quality level of urban life. It was a milestone in switching the focus from material to nonmaterial factors in the life quality model in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Grey system theory, grey analytical hierarchy process, life quality, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
    JEL: I3 I31 J17 O18 P25
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Nguyen, Hung The; Lam, Bao Quoc; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh; Huynh, Vy Dang Bich
    Abstract: Career path choice was an important decision in each individual life. Industry 4.0 has brought new challenges to a career path with much emphasis on smart instead of hard work. Globalization has also challenged Confucian culture in Vietnam and led to the change in the criteria of career path choice. The objective of this research was to explore and rank the criteria for career path choice in the context of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The innovative grey decision-making method, namely Grey Analytical Hierarchy Process (GAHP), was employed to reach the research objectives. The data of 30 experts who were researchers and practitioners in human resources were purposively selected to be used for the analysis. Research results showed that the hierarchical model of career path choice in the Vietnamese context had three levels, in which the first level is the goal level. The second level included three main criteria with the priority orders as follows: (1) work diversity, (2) job prospects, and (3) family preference. Further, the ranking was made with thirteen sub-indicators in the third level of the hierarchical model. The findings reflected the great changes in career path choice criteria, switching to work diversity from traditionally Confucian values with much reliance on family preference and job prospects in the public sector. This implied a proper performance of competency-based education for employees to meet the labor market demand of the private sector.
    Keywords: Career path, decision making, Ho Chi Minh City, grey system theory, grey AHP, industry 4.0, Vietnam
    JEL: C6 D14 I31 L8 O14
    Date: 2022–06
  5. By: Ompusunggu, Dicky Perwira
    Abstract: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis Pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung variabel makro ekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan kredit pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penyerapan tenaga kerja di Indonesia. Data di peroleh dari laporan tahunan Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan yaitu berupa data sekunder periade tahun 1989 (Q1-Q4)-2019 (Q1-Q4). Tenik analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis jalur (path analysis) mengunakan metode data panel yang merupakan gabungan time series (triwulan) dan cross section (negara) dengan 120 data observasi mengunakan Software Eviews 11. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1) suku bunga kredit, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penyerapan tenga kerja berpengaruh langsung dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan kredit. (2) suku bunga kredit, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh langsung dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. (3) suku bunga kredit tidak berpengaruh langsung dan signifikan terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh langsung dan signifikan terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja. (4) suku bunga kredit, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh langsung signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pertumbuhan kredit. (5) suku bunga kredit, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja melalui pertumbuhan kredit.
    Date: 2023–02–14
  6. By: Suryawijaya, Tito Wira Eka; Priono, Samuel Adi; Ingsih, Kusni
    Abstract: This article aims to explain about the G20 as a form of international cooperation in the world economy and monetary sector. The G20 was formed in 1999 as a form of agreed solution in dealing with the monetary crisis that occurred in 1998. As a result of this incident, there was an understanding that the economic issues of a country cannot be faced alone. Thus, cooperation is needed to solve these problems. For developing and developed countries, the G20 meeting is seen as important as a medium for reviewing and reviewing issues and possible solutions through the forum discussion method. In 2008, Indonesia itself joined the G20 forum after being deemed to have met the criteria as an economic country with a strong foundation and is the only country in Southeast Asia that is a member of the G20. This article then uses a conceptual method to describe how the role of this forum can help restore the global economy and its impact in improving the Indonesian economy during the G20 presidency this year.
    Date: 2022–12–01
  7. By: Suryawijaya, Tito Wira Eka
    Abstract: The Armed Criminal Group (KKB) in Papua is still conducting acts of terror such as burning public facilities, killing people, and spreading propaganda through social media, which could threaten the integrity of Papua as part of Indonesia. This study used a critical discourse analysis approach to identify various propaganda for Free Papua, collected from uploads on Facebook owned by KKB Papua and its sympathizers. The propaganda claims that TNI and Polri conduct open operations, form militias, and commit violence and torture against the Papuan people. Non-Papuan Indonesians are labeled with derogatory words, while Papuan students are persecuted. Independence is seen as a way to liberate Papua from Indonesian colonialism, with demands for a referendum and termination of special autonomy. KKB also proclaimed a provisional Constitution (UUD) and rejected Indonesian legal products. The propaganda techniques used by KKB include card stacking, name calling, glittering generalities, and bandwagons. To overcome this propaganda, efforts are needed to provide correct and reliable information, education, and instill a sense of belonging to Indonesia for the Papuan people. By doing so, acts of propaganda and separatism by the Free Papua Movement can be overcome, and the integrity of the nation can be maintained.
    Date: 2023–01–05
  8. By: Dinh, Hien Thi Thu; Nguyen, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To; Nguyen, Phong Thanh
    Abstract: Sustainable development of cities was among the goals aimed by either country or region since the 1980s. Ho Chi Minh City was ranked as the most rapid urban development in Vietnam, which challenged the accommodation of the necessities for a pleasant life in a city with limited resources, including housing, public infrastructure, a clean environment, security, safety, employment, and other necessities. The purpose of this study was to measure city sustainability by employing fuzzy decision analysis. A systematic review of the literature has provided the theoretical framework for measuring sustainable cities. Further consent on the criteria of a sustainable city in the context of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam was confirmed based on the evaluation of thirty experts with academic and practical experience in the field. The research findings provided the measurement model of city sustainability at three levels with three main criteria at 2nd level and twenty sub-criteria at 3rd level. The research results revealed that there is great consent for city performance and priority ranking in terms of the social dimension. However, great conflict in the importance and performance of economic and environmental dimensions has been found. This practically implied the strategies for bridging the gap between the city’s actual criteria performance and priority ranking in target city sustainability.
    Keywords: Ho Chi Minh City, fuzzy logic, hierarchy, sustainability, sustainable development
    JEL: C6 O18 Q5 Q56 R4
    Date: 2022–09
  9. By: RePEc, IDEAS
    Abstract: Top 25% Institutions and Economists in Viet Nam, as of January 2023 Explanations Institutions Institutions 10/10 Authors Authors 10 More The rankings: Top 25% institutions in Viet Nam, all authors, all publication years For Viet Nam, there are 205 authors affiliated with 58 institutions. All institutions in this region. Only authors registered with the RePEc Author Service are considered. Only works listed on RePEc and claimed as theirs by registered authors are counted. A series of rankings by different criteria are aggregated. The average rank score is determined by taking a harmonic mean of the ranks in each criterion. For a list of criteria, see the general ranking page. Authors with multiple affiliations have their score distributed across regions according to the affiliation shares they provided. The ranking is performed using the set of authors or institutions within the region, recomputing the scores within the set. The ranking done by simply looking up the worldwide ranking for those authors or institutions from this region is provided in the W.Rank column and put in [square brackets].
    Date: 2023–02–14
  10. By: Karsono, Lorena Dara Putri; Lida, Ulfah Mey
    Abstract: Era industri 4.0 memberikan efek pada perkembangan teknologi dalam berbagai bidang di Indonesia. Cara pandang mengenai bisnis telah berubah semenjak adanya digitalisasi. “Apakah bisnis UMKM perlu mengikuti kemajuan teknologi?” “Bagaimana cara bisnis UMKM yang sudah dibangun dapat semakin berkembang?” Pertanyaan seperti itu sering bermunculan pada benak pemilik UMKM yang mana belum paham akan pentingnya digitalisasi. Digitalisasi adalah perubahan dari sistem konvensional ke digital sebagai upaya untuk meningkatkan efektivitas dan efisiensi proses bisnis dan operasional UMKM. Dengan begitu, mengandalkan digital memiliki peranan penting bagi berjalannya proses bisnis UMKM secara keseluruhan.
    Date: 2022–12–21
  11. By: Liu, K.; Prommawin, B.; Schroyen, F.
    Abstract: Exploiting the 2001 universal health insurance reform in Thailand as a source of identification, we estimate the effects of health insurance coverage on agricultural production decisions and welfare. Our estimates suggest that the reform led to long-run increases in total cultivation investments and output, and that households shifted their cultivation portfolio towards riskier crops. We explain these findings using a model of agricultural investment, highlighting the important roles of health insurance in terms of mitigating background medical expenditure risk and improving health. We also find that the reform improved households’ welfare by reducing debts and defaults on loans.
    Keywords: Health insurance, Risk-taking, Cultivation, Investments.
    JEL: D1 G5 H51 I13 Q12
    Date: 2023–03–20
  12. By: Nguyen, Minh_Hieu Thi Dr
    Abstract: Yin and colleagues (2018): Impacts of biophilic environment exposure on human physiological and cognitive performance through mindsponge theory perspective Minh-Hieu Thi Nguyen School of Psychology, Massey University, Auckland 0632, New Zealand Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, Nam Tu Liem District, Hanoi, 10000, Vietnam * * * * * I am participating in BMF Collaborative Project 1: Urban residents’ biodiversity connections and belief in biodiversity loss, and here is an insight from Physiological and cognitive performance of exposure to biophilic indoor environment that connects with the SM3D theoretical framework [2, 3]. Yin and colleagues (2014) examined physiological and cognitive responses to indoor environments with and without biophilic features via physical and virtual experiences. The research found that interacting with a biophilic environment lowers participants’ blood pressure and negative emotion and increases their short-term memory and positive emotion. Their skin conductance also decreases less in non-biophilic than biophilic ones. More interestingly, the physical and virtual experiences have similar results. From the mindsponge perspective, the information people absorb from their interactions with the environment is integrated and differentiated via a multi-filtering system [4]. If information is compatible with people’s mindsets (core values), it will be synthesized and incorporated through integration. If not, people will assess the cost and benefit of accepting or rejecting the different information. Much evidence suggests that biophilia exists naturally in people’s mindsets; thus, the experiences in the biophilic environment are integrated, and those in the non-biophilic environment are differentiated. Differentiation is a more stressful process as it consumes more energy and requires the involvement of many cognitive functions, possibly leading to poor information exchange with the surrounding environment and negative impact on human health (e.g., high blood pressure, lower short-term memory, and negative emotion).
    Date: 2023–02–14
  13. By: Shurojit Chatterji (Singapore Management University); Atsushi Kajii (Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: We study a mutiperiod model with a nominal bond that matures in one period and identify the set of efficient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria with heterogenous forecasts. We next add a long maturity bond, which under perfect foresight would be a redundant asset, and show that it fundamentally expands the set of efficient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria. Indeed all wealth transfers compatible with efficiency can arise endogenously. The key feature driving this conclusion are forecasting errors, which lead to ex post arbitrage opportunities that induce these income transfers.
    JEL: D51 D53 D61
    Date: 2023–03
  14. By: Malapit, Hazel J.; Heckert, Jessica; Adegbola, Patrice Ygué; Crinot, Geraud Fabrice; Eissler, Sarah; Faas, Simone
    Abstract: Many development agencies design and implement interventions that aim to reach, benefit, and empower rural women across the value chain in activities ranging from production, to processing, to marketing. Determining whether and how such interventions empower women, as well as the constraints faced by different value chain actors, requires quantitative and qualitative tools. We describe how we adapted the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (pro-WEAI), a mixed-methods tool for studying empowerment in development projects, to include aspects of agency relevant for multiple types of value chain actors. The resulting pro-WEAI for market inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI) includes quantitative and qualitative instruments developed over the course of four studies. Studies in the Philippines (2017), Bangladesh (2017), and Malawi (2019) were intended to diagnose areas of disempowerment to inform programming, whereas the Benin (2019) study was an impact assessment of an agricultural training program. The pro-WEAI+MI includes all indicators included in pro-WEAI, plus a dashboard of complementary indicators and recommended qualitative instruments. These tools investigate the empowerment of women in different value chains and nodes and identify barriers to market access and inclusion that may restrict empowerment for different value chain actors. Our findings highlight three lessons. First, the sampling strategy needs to be designed to capture the key actors in a value chain. Second, the market inclusion indicators cannot stand alone; they must be interpreted alongside the core pro-WEAI indicators. Third, not all market inclusion indicators will be relevant for all value chains and contexts. Users should research the experiences of women and men in the target value chains in the context of the programto select priority market inclusion indicators.
    Keywords: PHILIPPINES; SOUTH EAST ASIA; ASIA; BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; BENIN; WEST AFRICA; women's empowerment; value chains; agriculture; gender; mixed methods; interventions; rural; women; market access
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Kader, Sharar (Monash University)
    Abstract: Wildlife hunting is one of the largest causes of biodiversity loss, yet its drivers are still poorly understood. This paper quantifies the relationship between income and wildlife hunting in Cambodia, a country at the forefront of the clash between economic development and biodiversity loss. We use two nationally representative datasets which, unusually, collect detailed data on both the consumption and sales of hunted wildlife to estimate the importance of income on wildlife hunting in rural areas. Using rainfall shocks in the beginning of the main agricultural production season and prices of other protein sources as sources of exogenous variation in household income, we show that income has a causal negative relationship with wildlife hunting in rural Cambodia. We use these estimates to explore the effectiveness of cash transfers as a policy that promotes both wildlife conservation and poverty alleviation by primarily reducing the value of hunted wildlife as a coping strategy.
    Keywords: Biodiversity loss ; Hunting ; Rainfall shocks ; Cash transfers ; Cambodia JEL classifications: O13 ; Q56 ; Q57 ; Q58
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Headey, Derek D.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Marshall, Quinn; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Mahrt, Kristi
    Abstract: International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises†in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages†of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages†– wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times†is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; SRI LANKA; MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA; food prices; food crises; food security; nutrition; wages; healthy diets; monitoring; inflation; household income; early warning systems
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Hiep, Phuoc Minh
    Abstract: The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic leads to e-commerce’s explosive growth with brands such as Shopee, Lazada, Tiki, Sendo and The Gioi Di Dong, etc. Since then, e-commerce activities have been going into practice in the life of every Vietnamese person and are constantly developing. The article presents the current situation of the e-commerce industry in recent years through discussion to analyze, evaluate and have a broader perspective on the development of e-commerce, thereby offering some development policies.
    Date: 2023–02–13
  18. By: Danny Hermawan; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko; Richard I. Yusan
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of transaction cost-induced variations in the velocity of money on inflation dynamics, based on a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with an explicit money velocity term. The money velocity effect arises from the role of money, both in physical and digital forms, in reducing the aggregate transaction costs and facilitating purchases of goods and services. We find a non-trivial aggregate impact in the context of the Indonesian economy: our benchmark estimates suggest that a 10% decrease in money velocity, which might be facilitated by a new digital currency (e.g. CBDC) issuance, would reduce the inflation rate by 0:6-1:7%, all else equal. Using the estimates and within a small-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze the potential implications of a CBDC issuance on aggregate fluctuations. A CBDC issuance that conservatively lowers the velocity of money by 5% is predicted to permanently raise the GDP level by 0:8% and lower the inflation rate by 0:8%. Both nominal and real interest rates are also permanently lower. Our findings imply that central banks could potentially use CBDCs as an additional stabilization policy tool by influencing the velocity.
    Keywords: inflation dynamics; transaction cost; velocity of money; digital money; digital currency; central bank digital currency (CBDC); aggregate fluctuations;
    Date: 2023–03
    Abstract: We use the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data and their corresponding texts to undertake network and text analysis on trade agreements with digital trade chapters to identify which countries are important in the network and how similar or different their texts of digital trade chapters are. centrality values reflect which countries are influential in the network, while values of similarity assess the level of similarity between the texts of digital trade chapters concluded by these countries. Centrality and similarity are complementary in assessing the relative positions of countries in the network, where the number of linkages between countries is significant in centrality and the quality of digital trade chapters is critical in similarity. We interpret this to mean that a country with a high degree of centrality is likely to be a rule-promoter in the network, whereas a country with a high degree of similarity is likely to be a rule-maker. The brief highlights three key findings from network and text analysis of digital trade agreements: (1) The U.S. has been the best rule-maker but not the best rule-promoter, whereas Singapore has been the best rule-promoter but not the best rule-maker. (2) China is a rule-maker, but to a weaker extent than the U.S., and Korea is a rule-promoter, although it is less active than Singapore. (3) Japan and Australia have served as both rule-makers and rule-promoters. Identification of countries’ relative positions in the network of digital trade agreements would be useful at the start of talks on digital trade policy.
    Keywords: Digital Trade Agreement; Network Analysis; Text Analysis
    Date: 2023–02–08
  20. By: Phan, Ngoc
    Abstract: Dịch bệnh do vi-rút corona (COVID-19) gây ra đã và đang ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến hoạt động thương mại quốc tế giữa các quốc gia; tuy nhiên, còn thiếu các nghiên cứu thực nghiệm về các nước đang phát triển như Việt Nam. Bài viết này nhằm mục đích tìm hiểu xem các trường hợp nhiễm COVID-19 và các trường hợp tử vong liên quan cũng như phản ứng chính sách của Việt Nam và các đối tác thương mại đối với đại dịch ảnh hưởng như thế nào đến hoạt động xuất khẩu của Việt Nam. Tác giả sử dụng dữ liệu thương mại hàng tháng từ Tổng cục Hải quan Việt Nam và sử dụng công cụ ước lượng khả năng giả cực đại Poisson (PPML) để điều tra thực nghiệm tác động của COVID-19 và phản ứng chính sách đối với đại dịch đối với xuất khẩu của Việt Nam ở cấp độ tổng thể và ngành trong khoảng thời gian 33 tháng.
    Date: 2023–03–08

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