nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2023‒03‒13
23 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Varian Waralaba Indonesia dari 5 Juta hingga 10 Miliar By Asshiddik, Faqih
  2. Peran UMKM dalam Perekonomian Indonesia By Arvitio, Christian
  3. Rapid Economic Growth but Rising Poverty Segregation: Will Vietnam Meet the SDGs for Equitable Development? By Dang, Hai-Anh; Dhongde, Shatakshee; Do, Minh N.N.; Nguyen, Cuong Viet; Pimhidzai, Obert
  4. Catatan Materi New Venture Creation By mahya, salsabila ainun mahya
  5. Pengembangan Bisnis Mental Health Berbasis Digital dalam Menghadapi Resesi 2023 By Halim, Trixie Ordelia
  6. Ringkasan Materi Studi New Venture Creation By Poedjiono, Nathaneal Felix
  7. The Influence of Net Profit Margin and Debt to Asset Ratio on Profit Growth: Case Study of Coal Mining Subsector Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017-2021 By Cig, Oguzcan; Winarso, Eddy
  8. Ringkasan Mata Kuliah New Venture Creation By Ryanto, Romario
  9. Some asymptotics for short maturity Asian options By Humayra Shoshi; Indranil SenGupta
  10. Antologi Essay Moderasi Beragama Di Desa Simo By Nuha, Muhammad Afthon Ulin
  11. Important Indoor Environmental Quality Attributes for Office Building's COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedure from Building Management Perspectives By Nur Hannani Ab Rahman; Shazmin Shareena Azis; Nur Amira Aina Zulkifli; Shastitharran Baskaran
  12. COVID-19 Resilient Framework for Workplace: Indoor Environmental Quality By Shazmin Shareena Azis; Nur Hannani Ab Rahman; Nur Amira Aina Zulkifli; Shastitharran Baskaran
  13. The Impact of Spiritual Marketing on Consumer Loyalty By Suhan, Aurelia; Aprillia, Ariesya
  14. How did China Raise its Manufacturing Domestic Value added in Exports through GVC Moving up? By Ping Hua
  15. Policy Learning with Rare Outcomes By Julia Hatamyar; Noemi Kreif
  16. "The Ways that Digital Technologies Inform Visitor's Engagement with Cultural Heritage Sites: Informal Learning in the Digital Era " By Wenrui Wang
  17. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Housing Demand Change By Kwan Ok Lee
  18. Automation and Productivity: Evidence from Thai Manufacturing Firms By Kanit Sangsubhan; Kumpon Pornpattanapaisankul; Pisacha Kambuya
  19. Peluang Wirausaha saat Resesi 2023 By mahya, salsabila ainun mahya
  20. Wages and Productivity in Argentinian Manufacturing. A Structuralist and Distributional firm-level Analysis By María Celeste Gómez; Maria Enrica Virgillito
  21. Pays émergents et en développement : l’étau se resserre By Sylvain Bellefontaine; Benoît Jonveaux; Emmanuelle Mansart Monat; Amaury Mulliez; Alix Vigato; Maëlan Le Goff; Jade Castaner; Vincent Joguet; Morgane Salomé; Floriane Vallée
  22. Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates By Christis Katsouris
  23. Emerging and Developing Countries: The Noose is Tightening By Sylvain Bellefontaine; Benoît Jonveaux; Emmanuelle Mansart Monat; Amaury Mulliez; Alix Vigato; Maëlan Le Goff; Jade Castaner; Vincent Joguet; Morgane Salomé; Floriane Vallée

  1. By: Asshiddik, Faqih
    Abstract: Seiring berjalannya waktu tentunya akan mengalami banyak kemajuan dan juga perkembangan. Salah satunya dalam model bisnis yang memberikan banyak pilihan terhadap pihak-pihak yang memiliki minat untuk memiliki bisnis. Waralaba atau yang biasa di kenal dengan Franchise ini merupakan salah satu pilihan model bisnis yang ditawarkan dan sedang berkembang di Indonesia saat ini.
    Date: 2023–01–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:sp5kg&r=sea
  2. By: Arvitio, Christian
    Abstract: Small Medium Enterprise atau kerap dikenal sebagai UMKM di Indonesia belakangan ini makin menjamur keberadaannya. UMKM sendiri merupakan usaha yang dikelola oleh perseorangan ataupun suatu kelompok kecil dengan jumlah pendapatan dan kekayaan tertentu (Amelia Riskita 2022). UMKM dibagi kembali menjadi 3 bagian yang disesuaikan dengan pendapatan yaitu Usaha Mikro dengan keuntungan usaha sebesar 300 Juta, Usaha Kecil dengan keuntungan usaha diatas 300 Juta, dan yang terakhir adalah Usaha Menengah dengan keuntungan usaha lebih dari 2, 5 Milyar.
    Date: 2023–01–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ynerm&r=sea
  3. By: Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Dhongde, Shatakshee (Georgia Institute of Technology); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam); Pimhidzai, Obert (World Bank)
    Abstract: Vietnam is widely regarded as a success story for its impressive economic growth and poverty reduction in the last few decades. Yet, recent evidence indicates that the country's economic growth has not been uniform. Compiling and analyzing new extensive province-level data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) for every alternate year between 2002 and 2020 and other data sources, we find within-province inequality to be much larger than between-province inequality. Furthermore, this inequality gap is rising over time. Despite the country's fast poverty reduction, the poor were increasingly segregated in certain provinces. We find beneficial impact of economic growth on poverty reduction, but this can depend on inequality levels. We also find greater inequality to have negative impact on economic growth and poverty reduction. Our results suggest that policy makers in Vietnam should focus on reducing spatial disparities and income inequality in order to attain sustainable economic development.
    Keywords: poverty, inequality, pro-poor growth, convergence, household surveys, Vietnam
    JEL: C15 D31 I31 O10 O57
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15916&r=sea
  4. By: mahya, salsabila ainun mahya
    Abstract: Conducting a Feasibility Analysis, Designing a Business Model, Building a New Venture Team, Launching Strategy of the Business., Building a Powerful Bootstrap Marketing Plan Crafting a Business Plan and Building a Solid Buying an Existing Business and Franchising How to Choose Wisely the Legal Forms of Ventures in Indonesia Branding Salesmanship Advertising Strategies Managing Technologies, Social Media, and E-Commerce Choosing the Right Location and Layout Product and Inventory Planning for the Next Generation and Harvesting the Business Biography References
    Date: 2023–01–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gs7cb&r=sea
  5. By: Halim, Trixie Ordelia
    Abstract: Presiden Republik Indonesia, menteri keuangan, dan IMF memprediksi adanya potensi terjadi resesi ekonomi pada tahun 2023 mendatang. Prediksi tersebut semakin terbukti benar dengan banyaknya indikator resesi ekonomi yang mulai terjadi sepanjang tahun. Mengutip dari kajian InfoSingkat: “Dalam teori makro-ekonomi, resesi ekonomi adalah kondisi ketika produk domestik bruto (PDB) menurun atau pertumbuhan ekonomi riil bernilai negatif selama dua kuartal atau lebih dalam satu tahun.” Singkatnya, resesi ekonomi adalah kondisi saat aktivitas ekonomi suatu negara atau global mengalami penurunan drastis untuk waktu yang lama dan keadaan ekonomi menjadi stagnan selama berbulan-bulan bahkan bertahuntahun.
    Date: 2023–01–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:twmxq&r=sea
  6. By: Poedjiono, Nathaneal Felix
    Abstract: Ringkasan New Venture Creation akan membahas mengenai Conducting a Feasibility Analysis, Designing a Business Model Building a New Venture Team, Launching Strategy of the Business, Global Aspects of Entrepreneurship, Building a Powerful Bootstrap Marketing Plan, Crafting a Business Plan and Building a Solid, Buying an Existing Business and Franchising, How to Choose Wisely the Legal Forms of Ventures in Indonesia, Branding, Salesmanship, Advertising Strategies, Managing Technologies, Social Media, and E-Commerce, Choosing the Right Location and Layout, Product and Inventory, Planning for the Next Generation and Harvesting the Business.
    Date: 2023–01–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7a9tf&r=sea
  7. By: Cig, Oguzcan; Winarso, Eddy
    Abstract: Coal companies use a lot of their assets in carrying out their operational activities, the company is expected to be able to provide benefits to society. This study aims to examine the effect of Net Profit Margin and Debt to Asset Ratio on profit growth in coal mining sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This type of research is a quantitative method using a descriptive approach and associative problem formulation. Secondary data collection, in the form of financial reports from IDX. Withdrawal of samples using purposive sampling method. The samples studied were 19 coal mining sub-sector companies whose data was processed from 2017-2021. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS 24. The results show that partially Net Profit Margin has no significant effect on profit growth and Debt to Asset Ratio has a negative and significant effect on profit growth. Furthermore, Net Profit Margin and Debt to Asset Ratio simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on profit growth.
    Date: 2023–01–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kgjhe&r=sea
  8. By: Ryanto, Romario
    Abstract: Selama perkuliahan pada mata kuliah New Venture Creation yang merupakan Jurusan dari Entrepreunership Business Creation yang berada di Bina Nusantara Malang yang sudah berjalan 1 semester. File ini berisikan mengenai rangkuman selama perkuliahan mata kuliah New Venture Creation yang memuat Conducting a Feasibility Analysis, Designing a Business Model , Building a New Venture Team, Launching Strategy of the Business, Global Aspects of Entrepreneurship, Building a, Powerful Bootstrap Marketing Plan, Crafting a Business Plan and Building a Solid, Buying an Existing Business and Franchising , How to Choose Wisely the Legal Forms of Ventures in Indonesia, Branding, Salesmanship, Advertising Strategies , Managing Technologies, Social Media, and E-Commerce, Choosing the Right Location and Layout, Product and Inventory, Planning for the Next Generation and Harvesting the Business.
    Date: 2023–01–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vnaq9&r=sea
  9. By: Humayra Shoshi; Indranil SenGupta
    Abstract: Most of the existing methods for pricing Asian options are less efficient in the limit of small maturities and small volatilities. In this paper, we use the large deviations theory for the analysis of short-maturity Asian options. We present a local volatility model for the underlying market that incorporates a jump term in addition to the drift and diffusion terms. We estimate the asymptotics for the out-of-the-money, in-the-money, and at-the-money short-maturity Asian call and put options. Under appropriate assumptions, we show that the asymptotics for out-of-the-money Asian call and put options are governed by rare events. For the at-the-money Asian options, the result is more involved and in that case, we find the upper and lower bounds of the asymptotics of the Asian option price.
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.05421&r=sea
  10. By: Nuha, Muhammad Afthon Ulin
    Abstract: Pokok pembahasan yang tersaji dalam buku ini adalah berbagai gambaran tentang moderasi beragama yang timbul dari tatanan kehidupan masyarakat desa Simo Tulungagung. Moderasi Beragama sendiri menjadi tema yang cukup signifikan di masa sekarang. Munculnya berbagai golongan yang tumbuh di Indonesia menjadikan banyak pertentangan yang timbul di lingkungan masyarakat. Sehingga penting bagi para masyarakat terlebih mahasiswa untuk lebih memahami dalam membaca keadaan masyarakat sekitar agar tidak mudah terprovokasi dan termakan bujuk rayu golongan-golongan pemecah bangsa.Buku ini juga berisikan berbagai sudut pandang yang turut mewarnai baris demi baris kalimat yang disusun rapi berdasarkan sumber terpercaya, yakni masyarakat asli desa Simo Tulungagung. Pengamatan yang kami lakukan di desa Simo Tulungagung ini diperkuat dengan kegiatan wawancara pada masyarakat setempat, sehingga cukup mewakili keadaan nyata yang terjadi di sana. Harapan kami, buku ini dapat memberikan manfaat bagi para pembaca terlebih dalam memberikan gambaran mengenai keadaan masyarakat sekitar, sehingga dapat menelaah dan memahami bagaimana lingkungan yang kondusif dapat tercipta ditengah perbedaan dan isu-isu keberagamaan. Kami menyadari dalam penulisan buku ini terdapat banyak kekurangan dan kesalahan. Penulis memohon maaf dan berterimakasih pada semua pihak yang telah terlibat secara langsung atau tidak langsung dalam proses penerbitan buku ini.
    Date: 2022–02–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jtp32&r=sea
  11. By: Nur Hannani Ab Rahman; Shazmin Shareena Azis; Nur Amira Aina Zulkifli; Shastitharran Baskaran
    Abstract: World health Organization (WHO) acknowledge that coronavirus airborne transmission could be potentially indoors with crowded and poorly ventilated rooms. From this, COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) guideline for office building that has been issued by Ministry of Health Malaysia is expected to be part of the ‘new norms’ in workplace. However, there is lack of concentration on Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) attributes even it has been proven in many research that the transmission of COVID-19 actively occurs indoor environment and IEQ could mitigate the virus transmission. Therefore, this study aims to discover the important IEQ attributes for office building to reduce COVID-19 spread based on building management perspectives. There are two objectives outlined in this study which are 1) to identify IEQ attributes for office building, and 2) to analyse important IEQ attributes for office building. Questionnaire survey is conducted among building manager in Malaysia and analysed using frequency and descriptive analysis to achieve research objectives. Overall, it is resulted that there are nine important IEQ attributes that could reduce COVID-19 spread in workplace based on building management perspectives. This study is significant for building manager or COVID-19 management in workplace to enhance their current SOP by integrating IEQ elements to reduce COVID-19 spread in workplace.
    Keywords: Building Management; COVID-19; Indoor Environmental Quality; Standard Operating Procedure
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_68&r=sea
  12. By: Shazmin Shareena Azis; Nur Hannani Ab Rahman; Nur Amira Aina Zulkifli; Shastitharran Baskaran
    Abstract: Indoor environment with crowded and poorly ventilated rooms has become an issue during COVID-19 pandemic, especially in workplace. From this, COVID-19 regulation has been enforced in Malaysia namely Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) to reduce COVID-19 spread in workplace. Past research believes that built environment could produce valuable contribution in addressing solutions for COVID-19 and green measurement such as Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) would ensure long-term social and environmental protection. However, there are lack of concentration on Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) attributes towards the existing COVID-19 SOP enforced in Malaysia. Therefore, this study aims to integrate the IEQ attributes into the existing guideline for workplace. Focus group discussion (FDG) and questionnaire survey were conducted and analysed using content analysis and descriptive analysis method, respectively. There are seven IEQ categorized as the most important attributes for COVID-19 SOP. A resilient COVID-19 framework is developed based on the validation of many perspectives expert to reduce COVID-19 spread in workplace. This study significant for building manager or COVID-19 management team in workplace to set up a sustainable COVID-19 resilient framework as an improvement for current COVID-19 SOP by integrating with IEQ attributes into their current guideline.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Indoor Environmental Quality; Office Building; Resilient
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_74&r=sea
  13. By: Suhan, Aurelia; Aprillia, Ariesya
    Abstract: Wardah is a pioneer of a cosmetic brand receiving a halal certificate from the Indonesian Ulema Council. Therefore, these products are compliant with Islamic principles. Indeed, Indonesian consumers, mainly Muslim, are expected to be loyal. Related to this situation, the company manufacturing Wardah products needs to choose the type of suitable marketing. For this reason, this research aims to examine and analyze the impact of spiritual marketing on consumer loyalty. To achieve this intention, the consumers of Wardah products in Jakarta perform as the population and samples. Because the population size is unidentified, the consumers are taken by purposive sampling. Also, the variance-based structural equation model and probability of t-statistic are utilized to analyze the data and test the hypothesis. Based on the response testing, this study concludes that spiritual marketing is needed to create loyal consumers.
    Date: 2023–01–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w6gpr&r=sea
  14. By: Ping Hua (ECONOMIX)
    Date: 2022–01–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03767822&r=sea
  15. By: Julia Hatamyar; Noemi Kreif
    Abstract: Machine learning (ML) estimates of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) can be used to inform policy allocation rules, such as treating those with a beneficial estimated CATE ("plug-in policy"), or searching for a decision tree that optimises overall outcomes. Little is known about the practical performance of these algorithms in usual settings of policy evaluations. We contrast the performance of various policy learning algorithms, using synthetic data with varying outcome prevalence (rare vs. not rare), positivity violations, extent of treatment effect heterogeneity and sample size. For each algorithm, we evaluate the performance of the estimated treatment allocation by assessing how far the benefit from a resulting policy is from the best possible ("oracle") policy. We find that the plug-in policy type outperforms tree-based policies, regardless of ML method used. Specifically, the tree-based policy class may lead to overly-optimistic estimated benefits of a learned policy; i.e., the estimated advantages of tree-based policies may be much larger than the true possible maximum advantage. Within either policy class, Causal Forests and the Normalised-Double-Robust Learner performed best, while Bayesian Additive Regression Trees performed worst. Additionally, we find evidence that with small sample sizes or in settings where the ratio of covariates to samples is high, learning policy trees using CATEs has a better performance than using doubly-robust scores. The methods are applied to a case study that investigates infant mortality through improved targeting of subsidised health insurance in Indonesia.
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.05260&r=sea
  16. By: Wenrui Wang ("University of Sheffield, Western Bank, S10 2TN, Sheffield, The U.K. " Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: "Objective - Heritage sites are typical informal learning spaces that play significant roles in promoting cultural and historical knowledge among visitors. Visitors' engagement with heritage sites is a traditional view of exploring the informal learning spaces in the cultural sector. Methodology/Technique - Informal learning within heritage sites, however, has been informed and changed by digitization and virtualization in the cultural sector. But this generates new research interests in establishing links between traditional and digital cultural studies using a case study methodology. Finding - This paper discussed several cases to show how digital technologies inform visitors' engagement with heritage sites. Novelty - In this way, this paper also explores informal learning in the digital era. This paper also offers suggestions for future researchers in this area. Type of Paper - Empirical"
    Keywords: Engagement, informal learning, digital heritage sites, digital technologies, cultural sector, digital era.
    JEL: Z10
    Date: 2023–12–31
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:gjbssr628&r=sea
  17. By: Kwan Ok Lee
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced household housing demand especially with the dramatic increase in working-from-home (WFH) along with reduced mobility because of the restrictions and infection concerns. We provide a comprehensive understanding of changes in housing demand in Singapore where WFH became widespread and many restrictions including the lockdown were implemented after COVID-19. First, a word cloud analysis of the web-scraped data from PropertyGuru, the largest online property listing company in Singapore, suggests a significant change in keywords for housing advertisement. While words related with accessibility or location appeared significantly less in listings, the space and view of housing units were highlighted with words such as the study, unblock view, and renovation. Next, we investigate how the keywords that became popular after the COVID-19 have affected asking housing prices and transaction probabilities of online listings. Finally, we match the keyword information with actual transaction database and analyze whether features reflected in these keywords are indeed associated with changes in the price premium and transaction volume. Our findings capture detailed short-term shifts in housing demand reflected in real time at the online platform and provide important implications to the housing industry and policymakers.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Housing demand; Online Listing; Word Cloud
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_132&r=sea
  18. By: Kanit Sangsubhan; Kumpon Pornpattanapaisankul; Pisacha Kambuya
    Abstract: Rapid advances in the automation technology have led to a rise of public interest among researchers and policy makers. In manufacturing, most papers proved that industrial robots and automation is a key enabler to improve firm’s competitiveness and the overall growth of country. However, the often referred to picture of this new technology as “job killers†caused by the decoupling of wages and output per worker. Using Thai manufacturing firm-level data, this paper provides empirical evidence that there is a positive relationship between firms adopting automated process and their TFP. However, being in EEC area shows mixed results. We also find that automation investment has positive significant effect on total employment. Furthermore, there is some evidence that automation is driving an increase in demand for skilled workers and has reduced unskilled activities.
    Keywords: Automation; Robots; Total factor productivity; Labor productivity; Employment; Skills; Firm investment
    JEL: D24 E24 O14 O33
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:199&r=sea
  19. By: mahya, salsabila ainun mahya
    Abstract: Baru baru ini dunia perekonomian sedang diberikan sinyal berupa lampu oren yang menandakan hati hati. Hal tersebut dikarenakan adanya perkiraan terjadinya resesi ekonomi pada tahun 2023 mendatang. Orang yang memberikan peringatan tersebut bukanlah orang yang dapat diabaikan pendapatnya. Peringatan tersebut diberikan langsung oleh bapak Jokowidodo selaku presiden RI dan juga ibu Sri Mulyani selaku mentri keuangan. Menurut saya hal tersebut menunjukkan betapa seriusnya kondisi yang akan dihadapi pada saat resesi 2023 mendatang
    Date: 2023–01–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zn93h&r=sea
  20. By: María Celeste Gómez (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba/CONICET); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant’Anna)
    Abstract: Wages and productivity represent two of the most relevant variables to consider in economic development. Given the low productivity levels that emerging countries reveal, the accumulation of productive capabilities and a narrower dispersion across sectors would enable emerging countries to overcome the middle-income trap. Y et, this positive trend in productivity should translate into higher wages. Thus, we pose the following questions applied to a middle-income trapped country: is there a link between labour productivity and wages in the Argentine manufacturing sector? Does it differ across techno-productive classes or wage levels? Which factors affect this nexus, considering premature deindustrialisation? Using a firm-level dataset from 2010 to 2016, we perform quantile regression estimates to evaluate the link between productivity and wages across the conditional wage distribution among manufacturing firms. Based on a structural analysis, we identify the differences in these elasticities at 2-ISIC code levels and across Pavitt taxonomies. Our results confirm a positive , but extremely low, pass-through between productivity and wages in the Argentinian manufacturing firms, different across sectors according to their techno-productive capabilities, robust under different empirical strategies
    Keywords: Gains from productivity, Development, Asymmetries
    JEL: J31 D24 L6 O14 C21
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:216&r=sea
  21. By: Sylvain Bellefontaine; Benoît Jonveaux; Emmanuelle Mansart Monat; Amaury Mulliez; Alix Vigato; Maëlan Le Goff; Jade Castaner; Vincent Joguet; Morgane Salomé; Floriane Vallée
    Abstract: Le double choc de la crise sanitaire et de la guerre en Ukraine a généré une poussée inflationniste sans précédent dans les pays développés depuis le choc pétrolier de 1979 et la guerre Iran-Irak. Ce choc est venu interrompre deux décennies de désinflation importée de Chine et d’autres pays émergents et en développement et plus d’une décennie de politiques monétaires ultra-accommodantes. Depuis, les banques centrales ont en effet mis en oeuvre des politiques monétaires plus restrictives, d’abord dans les pays développés et en Amérique latine, puis dans le reste des PED. Couplés aux fluctuations des cours des matières premières agricoles et de l’énergie, ainsi qu'aux soubresauts de l’économie chinoise ralentie par la politique du « zéro Covid » et par les fragilités de son secteur immobilier, l’inflation et le resserrement monétaire ont profondément changé les paradigmes de l’économie mondiale au cours de l’année 2022. Le FMI a revu à la baisse ses perspectives de croissance économique mondiale pour 2022 et 2023.
    Keywords: Afrique du Sud, Maroc, Mauritanie, Colombie, Bangladesh, Inde, Philippines, Turquie, Maurice
    JEL: E
    Date: 2023–02–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr15083&r=sea
  22. By: Christis Katsouris
    Abstract: We propose an econometric environment for structural break detection in nonstationary quantile predictive regressions. We establish the limit distributions for a class of Wald and fluctuation type statistics based on both the ordinary least squares estimator and the endogenous instrumental regression estimator proposed by Phillips and Magdalinos (2009a, Econometric Inference in the Vicinity of Unity. Working paper, Singapore Management University). Although the asymptotic distribution of these test statistics appears to depend on the chosen estimator, the IVX based tests are shown to be asymptotically nuisance parameter-free regardless of the degree of persistence and consistent under local alternatives. The finite-sample performance of both tests is evaluated via simulation experiments. An empirical application to house pricing index returns demonstrates the practicality of the proposed break tests for regression quantiles of nonstationary time series data.
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.05193&r=sea
  23. By: Sylvain Bellefontaine; Benoît Jonveaux; Emmanuelle Mansart Monat; Amaury Mulliez; Alix Vigato; Maëlan Le Goff; Jade Castaner; Vincent Joguet; Morgane Salomé; Floriane Vallée
    Abstract: The dual shock of the health crisis and the war in Ukraine has pushed up inflation to an extent not seen in developed countries since the 1979 oil shock and the Iran-Iraq war. This shock has put an end to two decades of disinflation imported from China and other emerging and developing countries (EDCs) and over a decade of ultra-accommodative monetary policies. Indeed, Central Banks have since implemented more restrictive monetary policies, firstly in developed countries and Latin America, then in the other EDCs. Coupled with fluctuations in the prices of agricultural commodities and energy, and the ups and downs of the Chinese economy, slowed down by the “Zero Covid” policy and the vulnerabilities of its real estate sector, inflation and monetary tightening profoundly changed the paradigm of the global economy in 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its economic growth forecast in July, then in October, for virtually all geographical areas for 2022 and 2023
    Keywords: Afrique du Sud, Maroc, Mauritanie, Colombie, Bangladesh, Inde, Philippines, Turquie, Maurice
    JEL: E
    Date: 2023–02–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15083&r=sea

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