nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2022‒10‒10
thirteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Public communication trends after COVID-19: Innovative practices across the OECD and in four Southeast Asian countries By Carlotta Alfonsi; Chiara Varazzani; Ethel Hui Yan Tan; Michaela Sullivan-Paul
  2. Designing an Optimized Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure for Urban Area: A Case study from Indonesia By Nissa Amilia; Zulkifli Palinrungi; Iwan Vanany; Mansur Arief
  3. The Mental Cost of Job Loss: Assessing the Impact on Young Adults in Vietnam By Freund, Richard; Favara, Marta; Porter, Catherine; Scott, Douglas; Thuc, Duc Le
  4. Vietnam Macroeconomic Fundamentals at International Integration: Literature Review and Implications for Stabilize Inflation Currently By Ly Dai Hung; Pham Thanh Cong; Tran Mai Trang
  5. mixrandregret: A command for fitting mixed random regret minimization models using Stata By Álvaro A. Gutiérrez-Vargas; Ziyue Zhu; Martina Vandebroek
  6. Bank Stress Testing of Physical Risks under Climate Change Macro Scenarios: Typhoon Risks to the Philippines By Ms. Hiroko Oura; Mr. Fabian Lipinsky; Stephane Hallegatte; Paola Morales; Nicola Ranger; Martijn Gert Jan Regelink; Henk Jan Reinders
  7. Improving MSMEs’ access to start-up financing in ASEAN countries By Maran, Raluca
  8. On the Evaluation of Skill in Binary Forecast By Thitithep Sitthiyot; Kanyarat Holasut
  9. Portfolio Liquidation under Factor Uncertainty By Horst, Ulrich; Xia, Xiaonyu; Zhou, Chao
  10. Monthly Report No. 03/2022 By Vasily Astrov; Vladislav L. Inozemtsev; Nina Vujanović
  11. Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Indonesia’s Highways By Paul Gertler; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Tadeja Gracner; Alexander D. Rothenberg
  12. The integration of life and non-life insurance in financial inclusion index By Shen Yap; Hui-Shan Lee; Ping-Xin Liew
  13. Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations By Mr. Matthieu Bellon; Emanuele Massetti; Berkay Akyapi

  1. By: Carlotta Alfonsi (OECD); Chiara Varazzani (OECD); Ethel Hui Yan Tan (OECD); Michaela Sullivan-Paul (OECD)
    Abstract: Reflecting on the experiences of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, this OECD working paper illustrates selected international trends that are driving innovation in the practice of public communication across the OECD to make it more inclusive, responsive and compelling. These include advanced uses of “big data” and analytics to power precise, targeted communication, collaboration with trusted third-party messengers in diverse communities, and the application of behavioural insights (BI) to communication. In turn, these trends can help promote the use of public communication for policy, openness and dialogue. The paper reflects on the implications of these international trends for four countries in Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. It looks at local lessons from the pandemic response and identifies avenues for adopting global good practices more widely. The paper focuses on a set of institutional prerequisites, including fostering a culture of innovation in public communication mandates and approaches, ensuring access to specialised skillsets, and strengthening ethical guidance in the use of new technologies and BI.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Digital, Misinformation, Open Government, Public communication, Public Governance
    JEL: H10 D83
    Date: 2022–09–22
  2. By: Nissa Amilia; Zulkifli Palinrungi; Iwan Vanany; Mansur Arief
    Abstract: The rapid development of electric vehicle (EV) technologies promises cleaner air and more efficient transportation systems, especially for polluted and congested urban areas. To capitalize on this potential, the Indonesian government has appointed PLN, its largest state-owned electricity provider, to accelerate the preparation of Indonesia's EV infrastructure. With a mission of providing reliable, accessible, and cost-effective EV charging station infrastructure throughout the country, the company is prototyping a location-optimized model to simulate how well its infrastructure design reaches customers, fulfills demands, and generates revenue. In this work, we study how PLN could maximize profit by optimally placing EV charging stations in urban areas by adopting a maximal covering location model. In our experiments, we use data from Surabaya, Indonesia, and consider the two main transportation modes for the locals to charge: electric motorcycles and electric cars. Numerical experiments show that only four charging stations are needed to cover the whole city, given the charging technology that PLN has acquired. However, consumers' time-to-travel is exceptionally high (about 35 minutes), which could lead to poor consumer service and hindrance toward EV technologies. Sensitivity analysis reveals that building more charging stations could reduce the time but comes with higher costs due to extra facility installations. Adding layers of redundancy to buffer against outages or other disruptions also incurs higher costs but could be an appealing option to design a more reliable and thriving EV infrastructure. The model can provide insights to decision-makers to devise the most reliable and cost-effective infrastructure designs to support the deployment of electric vehicles and much more advanced intelligent transportation systems in the near future.
    Date: 2022–09
  3. By: Freund, Richard (University of Oxford); Favara, Marta (University of Oxford); Porter, Catherine (Lancaster University); Scott, Douglas (University of Oxford); Thuc, Duc Le (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: We exploit the extensive job loss associated with the devastating fourth wave of COVID-19 in Vietnam to examine the impact of unemployment on young people's experiences of anxiety and depression. Using data from a longitudinal study with individual and survey-wave fixed effects, we show that job loss significantly increases levels of anxiety, but not depression. Specifically, job loss leads to a 5.9 percentage point increase in the probability of experiencing symptoms consistent with either mild or severe anxiety, almost doubling the pre-wave baseline. This effect is driven by individuals in the top earnings tercile who no longer live in their natal household - suggesting that the impact of job loss on anxiety is most acute among young people who are under pressure as the primary earners in their household. Perceived financial strain and food insecurity explain up to 22% of the estimated increase in anxiety. Our results support expanding mental health programmes to explicitly target young adults who have lost their job.
    Keywords: mental health, job loss, Vietnam, COVID-19
    JEL: J6 I1 I3
    Date: 2022–08
  4. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam); Pham Thanh Cong (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam); Tran Mai Trang (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the literature on the Vietnam macroeconomic fundamentals at international integration. The past results focus on the interaction of three main macroeconomic variables including the economic growth, inflation and VND/USD exchange rate, and their response to the external shocks from world economy. Then, the paper focuses on the policy implications to stablize inflation and stimulate economic growth within the current Covid-19 pandemic context. Accordingly, the policy makers need to anchor firmly the inflation expectation by clear and consistent signal with full commitment to fight against the inflation. At the same time, the fiscal and monetary policy needs to be combined so that the public investment is financed by issuance of government bonds with an appropriated quantity so that the interest rate is stabilized.
    Abstract: Bài viết này phân tích các nghiên cứu về kinh tế vĩ mô của Việt Nam trong hội nhập kinh tế quốc tế. Các kết quả trước đây thường tập trung vào sự tương tác của ba biến số nền tảng vĩ mô gồm tăng trưởng kinh tế, tỷ lệ lạm phát và tỷ giá hối đoái VND/USD, và phản ứng của các biến số này trước các biến động bên ngoài từ kinh tế thế giới. Từ đó, bài viết tập trung đưa ra một số hàm ý chính sách nhằm kiềm chế lạm phát và thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế trong bối cảnh đại dịch Covid-19 hiện nay. Theo đó, các nhà hoạch định chính sách cần neo chắc chắn được kỳ vọng lạm phát bằng cách bằng các tín hiệu rõ ràng, kiên định với cam kết đầy đủ về chống lạm phát. Đồng thời, chính sách tài khóa và tiền tệ cần được kết hợp theo hướng tài trợ đầu tư công bằng cách phát hành trái phiếu Chính phủ với lưu lượng vừa đủ để ổn định lãi suất.
    Keywords: Macroeconomics,International Integration,Quantitative Analysis,Literature Review
    Date: 2022–08
  5. By: Álvaro A. Gutiérrez-Vargas (Research Centre for Operation Research and Statistics (ORSTAT), KU Leuven); Ziyue Zhu (Research Centre for Operation Research and Statistics (ORSTAT), KU Leuven); Martina Vandebroek (Research Centre for Operation Research and Statistics (ORSTAT), KU Leuven)
    Abstract: Stata has a strong suite of survey data-analysis references and tools and remains the primary choice for researchers working with survey data. On the other hand, R is the primary choice for data visualization in many academic papers, given its flexibility, especially when using the ggplot2 package based on the design philosophy of The Grammar of Graphics. An unfulfilled need for many researchers is innovatively presenting survey data-analysis results without feeling limited by working within one statistical software only. This presentation discusses a workflow of using Stata for analysis and exporting the results through the postfile commands, then handing the data off to R to create a rich array of figures. As a proof of concept, the presentation will show results from an ongoing health economics research project from the Philippines of around 200,000 observations from national income and expenditure survey data to create publication-quality dumbbell plots, concentration curves, and Pen’s parades. Finally, the presentation will briefly describe how to share code and results in a public repository like Github.
    Date: 2022–09–10
  6. By: Ms. Hiroko Oura; Mr. Fabian Lipinsky; Stephane Hallegatte; Paola Morales; Nicola Ranger; Martijn Gert Jan Regelink; Henk Jan Reinders
    Abstract: Bank stress tests of climate change risks are relatively new, but are rapidly proliferating. The IMF and World Bank staff collaborated to develop an experimental macro scenario stress testing approach to examine physical risks for banks by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model linked to global climate and a catastrophe risk model specifically for the Philippines. Our model shows that the impact of extremely rare typhoons on GDP could already be systemic and worsen substantially with climate change. However, bank capital declines only modestly unless the event is compounded with other disasters, partly thanks to the strength of Philippines’ banks and economy before the COVID crisis. However, more work is needed before drawing strong conclusions about the relevance of climate risk, as the model focused only on typhoons’ physical capital destructions and their macroeconomic-level transmissions to banks.
    Keywords: Climate change; bank; stress test; financial stability; CAT model; disasters; bank stress testing; bank stress tests; climate change macro scenario; annex I. macro scenario model; climate change stress test; Natural disasters; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Global; climate scenario; climate model; physical capital; simulation result
    Date: 2022–08–19
  7. By: Maran, Raluca
    Abstract: Lack of access to finance constitutes a major setback to the development of the MSME sector in ASEAN countries. MSMEs are confronted with stringent funding constraints in traditional lending and capital markets, in particular at the early stages of their activity. Demand and supply of capital to MSMEs thus entails more complex issues compared to the larger firms. This paper presents a number of policy actions that have the potential to mitigate the financing challenges faced by MSMEs in ASEAN at the start-up stage by enhancing the potential of alternative funding sources such as business angel investment, crowdfunding, venture capital investment and SME stock markets.
    Keywords: MSMEs; ASEAN; start-up financing; business angels; crowdfunding; venture capital; MSME stock markets; loans and guarantees
    JEL: G32
    Date: 2022–09–02
  8. By: Thitithep Sitthiyot; Kanyarat Holasut
    Abstract: A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in various disciplines, prediction skill index (PSI) is devised. Twenty-four numerical examples are used to demonstrate how the PSI method works. The results show that the PSI awards not only the same score for random prediction and always predicting the same value but also nontrivial scores for correct prediction of rare or extreme events. Moreover, the PSI can distinguish the difference between the perfect forecast of rare or extreme events and that of random events by awarding different skill scores while other conventional methods cannot and award the same score. The data on growth of real gross domestic product forecast of the Bank of Thailand between 2000 and 2019 are also used to demonstrate how the PSI evaluates skill of the forecaster in practice.
    Date: 2022–09
  9. By: Horst, Ulrich (HU Berlin); Xia, Xiaonyu (HU Berlin); Zhou, Chao (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: We study an optimal liquidation problem under the ambiguity with respect to price impact parameters. Our main results show that the value function and the optimal trading strategy can be characterized by the solution to a semi-linear PDE with superlinear gradient, monotone generator and singular terminal value. We also establish an asymptotic analysis of the robust model for small amounts of uncertainty and analyze the effect of robustness on optimal trading strategies and liquidation costs. In particular, in our model ambiguity aversion is observationally equivalent to increased risk aversion. This suggests that ambiguity aversion increases liquidation rates.
    Keywords: stochastic control; uncertainty; portfolio liquidation; singular terminal value; superlinear growth gradient;
    JEL: E20 H30
    Date: 2021–01–26
  10. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladislav L. Inozemtsev; Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Russia losing half of its foreign reserves by Vasily Astrov Russia’s war economy by Vladislav Inozemtsev Following the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West, the war-time economic policy adopted by Russia will shape its economy for at least the next six months. It involves, among other things, the discriminatory treatment of foreigners and foreign-based entities from ‘unfriendly countries’, the creation of a de facto two-tier banking system, a separation of the rouble and foreign currency markets, and possibly the expropriation of foreign-owned property. It will not, however, forestall the most serious economic crisis in the history of modern Russia. EU investment in China past, present and ways ahead by Nina Vujanović Its significant economic reforms and the opening up of its markets have rendered China one of the largest trade players in the world. However, EU FDI in China has been relatively modest. The preferential treatment received by state-owned enterprises and conditions stipulating the transfer of technology remain major obstacles to FDI. Implementation of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with the EU and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement with other Asian and Pacific countries may, however, change EU investment patterns in China in the future. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: foreign exchange reserves; economic sanctions; banking sector; foreign exchange; stock market; foreign property; foreign direct investment; Comprehensive Agreement on Investment; FDI regulatory restrictiveness
    Date: 2022–03
  11. By: Paul Gertler; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Tadeja Gracner; Alexander D. Rothenberg
    Abstract: This paper estimates the local welfare impacts of road maintenance investments. We instrument road quality exploiting Indonesia’s two-step budgeting process for allocating funding to local road authorities. Using comprehensive data on road quality from 1990-2007, we find that better roads help manufacturers create new jobs, enabling worker transitions out of informal employment, and increasing wages. In terms of cost of living, road quality reduces perishable food prices but also raises housing prices. We estimate the elasticity of household welfare with respect to road quality to be 0.16 and the benefit/cost ratio for road maintenance investments to be 2.8.
    JEL: J43 O18 R23 R42
    Date: 2022–09
  12. By: Shen Yap (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman); Hui-Shan Lee (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman); Ping-Xin Liew (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman)
    Abstract: Motivated by the lack of a harmonised financial inclusion measure in the existing literature which accounts for the role of insurance, this paper constructs a multidimensional financial inclusion index which incorporates life and non-life insurance indicators for 79 countries for the year 2019. The computed financial inclusion indices reveal higher financial inclusion in high-income countries in Europe region vis-à-vis that of medium-income countries from the Asian and African regions. When only life insurance indicators are considered, some countries leapfrogged in their financial inclusion level whereas most of the developed and developing countries see a decline in their financial inclusion. On the other hand, non-life insurance appears to have only marginal positive impact on overall financial inclusiveness in the sample countries. The findings of this study indicate the lack of contribution of the insurance spectrum of financial services to financial inclusion.
    Keywords: Life Insurance, Non-Life Insurance, Financial Inclusion
    Date: 2022–07
  13. By: Mr. Matthieu Bellon; Emanuele Massetti; Berkay Akyapi
    Abstract: A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address this issue, we rely on global daily weather measurements with a 30-km spatial resolution from 1979 to 2019 and construct 164 weather variables and their lags. We select a parsimonious subset of relevant weather variables using an algorithm based on the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. We also expand the literature by analyzing weather impacts on government revenue, expenditure, and debt, in addition to GDP per capita. We find that an increase in the occurrence of high temperatures and droughts reduce GDP, whereas more frequent mild temperatures have a positive impact. The share of GDP variations that is explained by weather as captured by the handful of our selected variables is much higher than what was previously implied by using annual temperature and precipitation averages. We also find evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies that mitigate adverse weather shocks, especially excessive or unusually low precipitation episodes.
    Keywords: climate; extreme weather; macro economy; big data; weather variable; weather shock; OLS estimation outcome; climate variable; weather data sources; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; East Africa; GDP effect; weather observation
    Date: 2022–07–29

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