nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2022‒10‒03
ten papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Central Bank Policy Mix: Policy Perspectives and Modeling Issues By Juhro, Solikin M.; Sahminan, Sahminan; Wijoseno, Atet; Waluyo, Jati; Bathaluddin, M. Barik
  2. Global employment trends for youth 2022 Asia and the Pacific By International Labour Organization.
  3. Trade Disruption and Risk Perception By KASHIWAGI Yuzuka; TODO Yasuyuki
  4. Service Marketing Mix and Corporate Image influence the Customer Satisfaction: A Case Study of Shabu Restaurants in Thailand By Pichyada Pheunpha
  5. Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic By Florian Bonnet; Hippolyte d'Albis; Josselin Thuilliez
  6. Content Moderation in autoritären Staaten: Wie soziale Medien zu Komplizen autoritärer Herrscher zu werden drohen By Köhler, Paula; Voelsen, Daniel
  7. An Advance Study on Dairy Buffalo Development through Investment in Genetic Improvement By Soliman, Ibrahim; Bahgat, Basher
  8. The hydrogen ambitions of the Gulf States: Achieving economic diversification while maintaining power By Ansari, Dawud
  9. Resilient and Innovative Supply Chains: Evidence-based policy and managerial implications By TODO Yasuyuki
  10. Decentralized finance research and developments around the World By Ozili, Peterson K

  1. By: Juhro, Solikin M.; Sahminan, Sahminan; Wijoseno, Atet; Waluyo, Jati; Bathaluddin, M. Barik
    Abstract: This paper discusses the core model of Bank Indonesia policy mix (BIPOLMIX), a macroeconomic modeling breakthrough designed for economic and financial projections and policy simulations. The BIPOLMIX model captures the integrated central bank policy responses, e.g. monetary, macroprudential, and payment system policies, and considers the role of fiscal policy. The strategy of developing the model is flexible, dynamic, and forward-looking to make the model relevant as the basis for Bank Indonesia policy transformation in coping with challenges in a rapidly changing environment. In this regard, the model takes into account various economic dynamics and policy instrument mix in optimizing the achievement of macroeconomic and financial system stability. Amid main issues related to the model parameter consistency, in line with theoretical and technical considerations, the modeling framework is believed to be useful as a pivotal reference by the central banks in EMEs in developing core models to support optimal policy responses.
    Keywords: Central Bank Policy Mix, Policy Modeling, Projections and Simulations, Bank Indonesia.
    JEL: C51 E37 E58
    Date: 2022–09
  2. By: International Labour Organization.
    Keywords: youth employment, COVID-19, labour market, green economy, care economy, trend
    Date: 2022
  3. By: KASHIWAGI Yuzuka; TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: In the literature, direct physical damage to individuals caused by natural disasters, such as the destruction of houses, is often found to raise their perception of risks of future disasters. This paper examines whether another type of damage caused by disasters, i.e., indirect economic shocks, also affects the risk perception of individuals who are not directly affected by disasters. For this purpose, we focus on cacao farmers in Indonesia who experienced a disruption in trade with their traders after the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake, and use unique, household-level data collected after the earthquake. We find that when farmers were not directly or physically hit by the earthquake, but could not sell their products to their traders for a longer period of time due to the destruction of transport infrastructure and warehouses, they were more likely to perceive a very high risk of future earthquakes in their vicinity. In addition, farmers facing a longer trade disruption tended to believe that the risk of earthquakes is higher than that of other types of natural disasters. These findings imply that the effect of a disaster on individuals’ risk perception propagates geographically through trade networks to regions that are not directly affected by the disaster because of indirect and economic damage.
    Date: 2022–09
  4. By: Pichyada Pheunpha (Ubon Ratchathani University)
    Abstract: The research purpose was to examine the influence of corporate image and service marketing mix on customer satisfaction of Shabu Restaurants in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. A questionnaire with a reliability coefficient (0.93) at a very high level was used in this study. Cluster sampling was collected 400 customers from Shabu restaurants in Ubon Ratchathani province as follows: Shabu Indy, Wan Moo Shabu, Pra Whale Jaidee Shabu, and others. The statistics were descriptive, correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that independent variables correlated with customer satisfaction at a high level (r = 0.78). The service marketing mix 7Ps and the corporate image can predict customer satisfaction 59.3% (r2 = 0. 593). Three variables affect the satisfaction of customers, which are the regression coefficient of trust (? = 0.30), corporate reputation (? = 0.20), and physical evidence (? = 0.15), respectively.
    Keywords: Corporate Image, Service Marketing Mix, Customer Satisfaction, Shabu Restaurant, 7Ps
    JEL: M00 M19
    Date: 2022–07
  5. By: Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956-57) and the Hong-Kong flu (1969-1970). This study's objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969, and decreased from 1970 onward. The Hong-Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density or aging ratio. Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
    Date: 2022–08
  6. By: Köhler, Paula; Voelsen, Daniel
    Abstract: Täglich gibt es Berichte darüber, wie private Betreiber sozialer Medien sich problematischen Vorgaben autoritärer Herrscher beugen. Ob in Thailand, Kasachstan oder Russ­land, immer wieder werden als Teil von Content Moderation (CM) gezielt Inhalte entfernt oder Konten gelöscht, weil Regierungen sich durch Äußerungen in den sozialen Medien kritisiert fühlen. Diesen Einzelfällen liegt ein systemisches Problem von globaler Reichweite zugrunde. Die großen Betreiber sozialer Medien aus den USA bieten ihre Dienste in einer Vielzahl autoritärer Staaten an und erreichen hier Hunderte Millionen Nutzerinnen und Nutzer. Dabei laufen sie Gefahr, zu Komplizen bei der Verletzung von Menschenrechten werden. Um das Verhalten der Unternehmen hinsichtlich dieses Problems überprüfen zu können, sollte sich die deutsche Politik international dafür einsetzen, dass öffentlich einsehbare Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) verpflichtend vorgegeben werden.
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Soliman, Ibrahim; Bahgat, Basher
    Abstract: Dairy products are an important source of animal protein in Asian countries, especially for nutritionally vulnerable groups and vegetarians. As a result, the approach to increasing domestic milk supply is to increase buffalo milk yield through genetic improvement from the sperm of a selected buffalo sire with a high predicted milk difference. As a case study, data was collected from Artificial Insemination Centers in Egypt to use a dynamic mathematical investment model to estimate the rate of return (IRR) on genetic investment. Aside from the economic variables, the reproductive characteristics and feed efficiency are the most important variables in IRR. The anticipated most likely amount of IRR, 19.71%, was feasible. An increase of 10% in the number of conception services, age at First Calving, and service period would reduce the IRR by 7.51 percent. The IRR would drop by 9% if feed efficiency dropped by 10%. IRR would be reduced by 7% if feed costs, semen prices, and milk prices all fell by 10%. To import buffalo sires' semen of high predicted milk difference at moderate prices till establishment, domestic genetic merit is required.
    Keywords: Dairy buffalo; feeds; genetic improving; investment model; reproductive traits.
    JEL: O1
    Date: 2021–04
  8. By: Ansari, Dawud
    Abstract: The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are mapping out agendas to kickstart a hydrogen economy. Especially Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious plans to supply Europe and Asia-Pacific with the carbon-friendly fuel. Numerous declarations of intent have been signed, and the first large-scale projects are under way. For the Gulf countries, hydrogen is not only a means of diversification. Since the hydrogen economy blends into the institutional and fiscal framework of the petroleum industry, it is primarily a chance for the GCC economies to maintain current economic and political power structures. While hydro­gen from the Gulf is an effective tool for climate change mitigation, Germany and Europe are faced with trade-offs and open questions.
    Date: 2022
  9. By: TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: The aims of this paper are threefold. First, we discuss how resilient and innovative supply chains and knowledge networks can be constructed, mostly based on papers from current and previous projects at RIETI. The role of geographic diversity across partner countries in supply chains and knowledge networks is particularly emphasized. Second, we overview the recent policies affecting global supply chains and trends in the supply chains of major countries from the viewpoint of diversity. It is particularly observed that the reliance on China in imports of intermediate products to many countries in Asia has increased substantially. Although the reliance of Japan on China recently declined to some extent, it is still high compared with that of the United States and European countries. Finally, policy and managerial suggestions are provided based on the academic evidence in the first part and the current observations in the second part. It is suggested that Japan should lower its reliance on China in supply chains and diversify supply chains internationally to countries without national security concerns (i.e., “friend-shoring†) for resilience, and it should also expand knowledge networks among such countries to increase innovation.
    Date: 2022–09
  10. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: Decentralized finance is financial services offered on a public blockchain over the internet. This paper reviews the decentralized finance (DeFi) research and development around the world. The findings of the literature review are that decentralized finance offers many benefits such as broadening financial inclusion; encouraging permission-less innovation; eliminating the need for intermediaries; ensuring the immutability of transactions; censorship resistance and making cross-border transactions cheaper. The associated risks include execution risk in smart contracts, legal liability risk, data theft risk, interconnectedness risk, external data risk, and greater propensity for illicit activity using DeFi applications. The review of existing DeFi research show that there are few studies on DeFi, and a large number of DeFi research studies are non-empirical studies. Most studies hold a positive view about DeFi. They emphasize the benefits of DeFi in great depth but the challenges of DeFi were not analysed in great depth, and there are no critical studies on DeFi. Observations on DeFi developments from around the world show that there is growing interest in decentralized finance in Europe, U.S., Asia and Oceania. There are concerns that regulating decentralized finance can impede growth in decentralized finance markets in Asia. There are also concerns that banning crypto assets can hinder the growth of decentralized finance in African countries where regulators do not fully permit blockchain-enabled cryptocurrencies. Several policy issues associated with DeFi are discussed. Areas for further research are provided to advance the literature on decentralized finance.
    Keywords: decentralized finance, DeFi, blockchain, ethereum, cryptocurrency, distributed ledger technology, protocol, token, total valued locked, smart contract, digital currency, literature review.
    JEL: G21 G24 G28 O31 O38
    Date: 2022

This nep-sea issue is ©2022 by Kavita Iyengar. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.